We maintain and continue this committee of correspondence in memory of our founder and mentor, Colonel W. Patrick Lang. The image to the right is Marcus, a character from William S. Burroughs’s “The Coming of the Purple Better One.” Colonel Lang would refer to Marcus sometimes in clever jest, sometimes in biting social commentary and sometimes simply because he liked Marcus. May everyone who corresponds here do so in a similar spirit.
Essential Writings on History, War, Religion and Strategy
From the Introduction:
“In the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Col. Lang created his own blog which to this day still serves as a committee of correspondence for a large network of former military and intelligence officers, diplomats, and scholars of international affairs.
Since its launch in 2005, the Turcopolier website has had over 40 million unique visits.
Since leaving the government, he has also authored five books, including a Civil War espionage trilogy, a memoir of his years in government service, and a primer on human intelligence.
This present volume—his sixth book—is an anthology of some of his most important writings. The content speaks for itself. So have at it.”
The 47th Mechanized Brigade is one of the Ukrainian army’s best brigades. Equipped with American-made armored vehicles and trained to NATO standards, it fights like the best NATO brigades fight: swiftly, violently and often at night. But this prowess is a blessing and a curse for the brigade’s 2,000 troopers. The Ukrainian command wants the 47th Mechanized Brigade to be wherever the heaviest fighting is. So the brigade helped to lead Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive back in June. And when Russian regiments attacked the Ukrainian garrison in the eastern city of Avdiivka in October, the 47th Mechanized Brigade redeployed from the south to the east and reinforced the city—delaying though not preventing the garrison’s eventual retreat.
The 47th Mechanized Brigade has been fighting for nearly a year without a break. Its soldiers are tired; its battalions are running low on their best M-2 Bradley fighting vehicles and M-1 Abrams tanks. The brigade needs a break—and it almost got one this week. But that planned break was an invitation for the Russian field armies around the ruins of Avdiivka—an opportunity to inflict on the Ukrainians the kind of major defeat the Ukrainians inflicted on the Russians farther north around the city of Kharkiv in late 2022.
As the 47th Mechanized Brigade was pulling back from the front line east of the village of Ocheretyne this weekend, the Russians attacked—and very nearly broke through Ukrainian lines into the 20-mile-wide ribbon of undefended terrain separating the free city of Pokrovsk from the front line. The Ukrainian army’s 115th Mechanized Brigade was supposed to take the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s place along the front line. But something went wrong. According to Mykola Melnyk, the famed 47th Mechanized Brigade company commander who lost a leg during the summer counteroffensive, “certain units just fucked off.”
Russian scouts and drone operators, surveilling positions once held by the battle-hardened 47th Mechanized Brigade, expected to find fresh troops from the 115th Mechanized Brigade in the same trenches. Instead, they found … no one. It was a chance for the Russian army’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade to roll along a railroad track threading west from Avdiivka and capture a narrow salient that, on a map, looks like a five-mile-long knife stabbing into the Ukrainian line, its sharp point lodged halfway into Ocheretyne.
A Russian breakthrough could have collapsed the entire Ukrainian line west of Avdiivka—and forced tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops and potentially hundreds of thousands of civilians to flee Donetsk Oblast. A Ukrainian breakthrough around Kharkiv in the fall of 2022 resulted in a major rout for the Russian army. The only reason the Russians didn’t advance deeper into the Ukrainian rear this weekend is that the withdrawing 47th Mechanized Brigade turned around and rejoined the fight. “The 47th Mechanized Brigade is back in business,” Melnyk wrote. Over the next couple of days, the Russians slightly widened their salient, but didn’t advance any farther to the west. Disaster averted for Ukraine, for now.
Comment: This was a close one and, as David Axe notes, the possibility of a major Russian breakthrough still exists at Chasiv Yar and beyond. The full story points out the unevenness of the Ukrainian Army’s brigades. Sure there are crack units like the 47th Mechanized Brigade and the 3rd Mechanized Assault Brigade, but there are other units lacking the Western equipment, manning and training of these crack units. For the last six months, they are also lacking ammunition. I find it amazing that they can hold a line at all. Axe points this out in an article on his fairly new Substack called “Trench Art.” He’s writing some good stuff there.
One point he makes is that it is too easy to blame the 115th Brigade for this failure. It is also wrong. A relief operation like this is planned at least one echelon above the brigades. That’s where the failure happened. Plans for a relief involve sending recon parties from the relieving unit to the positions of the unit being relieved to coordinate the handover down to the company and platoon level. Relieving units are guided into defensive positions as the relieved units are guided into assembly areas to the rear. In the best of circumstances, it’s a dangerous maneuver. But it’s a maneuver that the Ukrainian Army has to become better at quickly.
David Axe wrote a follow on article on the decision to order the 100th Mechanized Brigade to counterattack the Russian penetration at Ocheretyne. This brigade was only recently incorporated into the Ukrainian Army from being a Territorial Defense Brigade. It is still a lightly armed unit lacking the supporting armor and artillery of a regular brigade. Despite these shortcomings, the 100th counterattacked and succeeded in halting elements of the Russian 41st Combined Arms Army. Ahh, the light infantry. God bless them.
The fate of the 100th Mechanized Brigade brings to mind one of the missions of the 25th Infantry Division back in the late 1970s. We were to reinforce Europe in the event of a Soviet invasion. At the time we were a light division before that designation became official. We had three M-551 Sheridans in the entire division. We were comprised of six understrength active infantry battalions and three Hawaiian National Guard battalions. Hardly what one would expect to be facing the 3rd Shock Army as it pushed towards the Rhine. Yet we took the mission seriously and trained accordingly.
TTG
By Robert Willmann
Does a president have legal immunity for acts done in a president’s “official capacity” while in office? On the foreign policy, covert action, and targeted assassination fronts alone, one can imagine all sorts of situations in which a president’s directives and orders cause harm, or financial manipulation and corruption, or both, that would run afoul of common legal doctrines. The concept of legal immunity would shield a president from being charged in a court while in office. But what about a situation in which a president is no longer in office? Does the legal immunity follow the president when no longer in office to block criminal prosecution for an “official act” done while president? This issue is more formally stated as the subject of a case before the U.S. Supreme Court, at which oral arguments will be heard on Thursday, 25 April 2024 starting at 10:00 a.m. eastern time–
“… whether and if so to what extent does a former president enjoy presidential imunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his tenure in office?”
This is worth paying attention to because it comes out of the prosecution of former President Donald Trump by special counsel John L. “Jack” Smith, the man who has appeared with a scruffy-looking beard. If one or more of the federal criminal charges he got a grand jury to issue against Trump turn out to involve acts Trump did in his “official capacity”, then any such offenses in a pending indictment will be blocked and cannot be presented in a trial.
The case attracted 45 “friend of the court” briefs, called amicus curiae, which presented the viewpoint and analysis of persons who are not participating parties in the lawsuit.
The audio of the oral argument should be broadcast on the C-Span network, and perhaps by news organizations and Internet sites–
http://www.c-span.org/video/?534673-1/supreme-court-hears-case-president-trumps-immunity-claim
The court clerk’s docket sheet with public access to the filed documents and briefs is here–
http://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-939.html
This is the order granting the review of the issue–
An oral argument before a court of appeals does not always telegraph how the case will be decided, especially since some questions to the lawyers are in the style of a devil’s advocate. But it often reveals that much of written governmental law consists of definitions and a debate about vocabulary. Former President Bill Clinton, a master of verbal tap dancing, made that perfectly clear in his testimony: “It depends on what the definition of the word is, is”.
Voyager 1 is no longer spouting gibberish as the BBC announcer put it. This short interview with Dr. Jennifer Millard describes how it was done. This is the stuff of the real old school hackers who understood the elegant dance between machine language software and the actual hardware. The continuing story of the Voyager probes reminds me of one of my favorite passages from Robery Ardrey’s African Genesis, a book I discovered in high school among the Jesuits. I still have my copy and peruse it often.
“But we were born of risen apes, not fallen angels, and the apes were armed killers besides. And so what shall we wonder at? Our murders and massacres and missiles, and our irreconcilable regiments? Or our treaties whatever they may be worth; our symphonies however seldom they may be played; our peaceful acres, however frequently they may be converted into battlefields; our dreams however rarely they may be accomplished. The miracle of man is not how far he has sunk but how magnificently he has risen. We are known among the stars by our poems, not our corpses.”
― Robert Ardrey, African Genesis
Although many large and old trees grow in Lithuania, the most famous is the Stelmužė Oak in the village of Stelmužė in the Zarasai district. This tree is the oldest oak in Lithuania and one of the oldest in Europe – it is 1.500 years old. Imagine, this oak is even older than Lithuania, if we count the age of Lithuania from its first mention in historical sources in 1009! Stelmužė Oak also stands out from other trees for its impressive size: it is 23 m high and has a diameter of 3,5 m.
In myths that explain the origin of the world, the oak is associated with the mythological world tree standing in the very center of the world. Its roots penetrate the depths, and its branches support the sky. The world tree symbolises the structure and order of the world. The life of the tree – entering a dormant state when the leaves fall each autumn, and awakening in spring – represents the eternal cycle of life. The world tree is often mentioned in Lithuanian folklore, especially in the songs of calendar ceremonies performed during the holidays dedicated to the changes in the cycle of the year such as Christmas, Mardi Gras, Easter and others.
Because the ancient Lithuanians had a very close connection to the world tree, they not only protected the oaks, but also worshiped them as sacred places – the realm gods. In pagan times – a religion that worships the deities of nature – Lithuanians didn’t have temples, but glorified their gods in forests and groves. An equivalent of the world tree – a special tree (large, strangely bent, possessing several trunks or some other unusual features), often an oak – usually stood in the middle of such groves. Those who broke so much as a twig from such a tree would be cursed by gods and humans.
https://mokomesapie.lt/en/100/the-lithuanian-oak-that-is-older-than-lithuania-itself
Comment: I’ve been taking daily walks along the path behind my house this year. The path runs through a small patch of forest that Ive referred to as my cathedral. One of the larger oaks recently caught my eye early on. Actually, it more than caught my eye. It spoke to me or more accurately communed with me. I admired the spread of its canopy even though it was in the middle of a forest. Perhaps this oak began live in a meadow. If only I could hear its story. I could go on about this oak and our recent reveries, but I think I’ll just share a few photos. Enjoy.
TTG
https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2020/04/a-return-to-the-cathedral-ttg.html
https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2019/04/sacred-places-ttg.html
https://fsc.org/en/newscentre/stories/the-guardians-of-sacred-oak-forests
On Thursday [11 April], President Gitanas Nausėda chaired the plenary session of the ninth summit of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) in Vilnius. In his address, the President stressed that the current geopolitical situation has given the Three Seas Initiative the impetus to grow as a platform for regional cooperation. The Head of State underlined the need to improve transport links, diversify energy sources, and build resilient infrastructure. Gitanas Nausėda added that it is also important to bridge the infrastructure gaps between the EU Member States and the associated countries Ukraine and Moldova.
The President stressed the importance of continued support for Ukraine and the need to help it to defend itself against the aggressor by all means. “Today, the countries of the Three Seas Initiative reaffirm their support for Ukraine, its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Together, we stand ready to play an important role in the reconstruction of Ukraine and to help it to build back even stronger and more resilient,” the Head of State underlined.
President Gitanas Nausėda pointed out that during the International Transport Forum held ahead of the Three Seas Initiative Summit in Lithuania, new members were invited to join the Common Interest Group for Ukraine. It is expected that this will lead to more productive cooperation and engagement of partners in the field of transport.
According to the President, supporting Ukraine’s integration into the European Union and NATO continues to be a political priority. The Lithuanian leader stressed that the Three Seas Initiative could make a significant contribution to the practical aspects of the EU enlargement process, helping to prepare for smoother integration. “For the Three Seas region to be viable and growing, we need to offer practical solutions. Thanks to the Three Seas Initiative, we are putting greater emphasis on the region’s cyber resilience, the protection of critical infrastructure, and military mobility. Our ability to deliver results also relies on our productive work with our transatlantic partners,” the Lithuanian leader said.
Gitanas Nausėda highlighted that the Three Seas Initiative already brings together 13 states, 2 associated states, and 4 strategic partners. “I am pleased that the fourth strategic partner, Japan, has joined the initiative here in Vilnius. Its participation will contribute to the objectives of the Initiative and will strengthen the region’s connections to global supply chains and the Indo-Pacific region,” the President said.
The Three Seas Initiative Summit adopted a joint declaration. The text is available here.
More on the Three seas initiative: https://3seas.eu
Comment: The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) is comprised of thirteen countries located between the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic seas – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Austria, Croatia, Romania, Greece and Bulgaria. It was conceived as a transportation initiative, with no political or military implications. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine changed that. The 3SI went beyond being an infrastructure initiative by inviting Ukraine to become a member officially and becoming a partner-participant at the June 2022 3SI Summit. Moldova also became a partner-participant at that summit. Finland has expressed a desire to join.
The 3SI is still dedicated to infrastructure projects like gas pipelines from the Baltic to the Adriatic, north-south roads and rail lines and greatly expanded information infrastructure, but now those projects are openly assuming a militarily defensive nature. I doubt 3SI is aiming to replace NATO, but I do see it becoming the more strident side of NATO.
An interesting development is the recent inclusion of strategic partners, the US, Germany, the EC, and Japan. This could just be an interest in accessing deep pockets for 3SI infrastructure projects, but I also see it as a path to greater international politico-military influence. I just hope the 3SI doesn’t forsake its infrastructure roots.
TTG
Israel has reportedly conducted missile strikes on Iran, targeting sites in both Iran and southern Syria. ABC News, citing senior U.S. officials ,said that Israel has launched retaliatory strikes following the recent attack from Iran.
According to ABC News Chief Global Affairs correspondent Martha Raddatz, Israel’s missile strikes have specifically targeted a site in Iran. Videos circulating on social media purportedly show the aftermath of the strikes, with air defense systems engaging and air raid sirens blaring near the Shahid Salami military base in Isfahan, Iran.
Additionally, the attack reportedly extended to sites in southern Syria and Iraq. Reports from Iraq suggest that airstrikes have targeted a building in Baghdad where a high-level meeting involving several Iran-supported groups and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was taking place. However, these reports remain unconfirmed at this time.
Mehr news agency reports that flights to Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz and all other airports in west Iran have been suspended.
Videos circulating on social media purportedly show the aftermath of the strikes, with air defense systems engaging and air raid sirens blaring in Iran. The precise details of the targets and the extent of the damage caused by the strikes remain unclear at this time.
Comment: Anyone want to make bets on the Iranian retaliatory strike to this retaliatory strike? Or where this will end up?
IRNA said the attacked sites in Syria were the “Adra” and “Al-Thala” military airport and a radar battalion located between the city of “Adra” and the village of “Qarfa” in southern Syria. In Iraq, explosions were reported in the al Imam area of Babel.
Iran says her nuclear facilities near Isfahan are safe. Airbases at Isfahan are home to at least two squadrons of F-14 Tomcats. I don’t know if the Tomcats were targeted.
TTG
Over 85 million chickens, turkeys, and other poultry birds have died in the U.S. since the avian influenza outbreak started two years ago. In the egg and poultry industry, it is standard protocol to cull every animal in a facility where the virus has been detected and dispose of their bodies. In factory farms, that can mean millions of birds at once.
But that’s not all. Thousands of wild birds and mammals have perished from the disease, including condors, eagles, sea lions, and even a polar bear. It has reached multiple continents, including Antarctica. And more recently, it has even sickened dairy cows across eight states and one farm worker.
While much of the media focuses on transmission from wild birds, we cannot forget that factory farms create prime conditions for deadly viruses to emerge and multiply. The crowded, stressful and unsanitary environments in factory farms enable viruses to easily spread and mutate into more contagious and harmful strains. But instead of minimizing disease risk by addressing the poor living conditions, the industry has opted to mass kill the animals instead, often with inhumane methods, to stop the virus from spreading. But it’s not working—not only are birds dying needlessly, but the virus is continuing to spread, harming wild animals as well in the biggest bird flu outbreak on record.
Animals are sick and dying. We must eliminate factory farming to eliminate this disease and prevent more outbreaks from happening.
Tell Congress to stop investing in factory farms and to transition to safer, more humane food production.
Comment: This was an email I received today from “Compassion in World Farming” as part of their campaign to end factory farming and the animal cruelty this practice causes. The emails are a result of my signing a petition years ago in support of better treatment for chickens. The issue struck me due to my first paying job as a farm hand on the Roaring Brook Poultry Farm. I was paid $1.50 an hour cash money from the pocket of Mr. Arthur Schweitzer to my pocket. This was when minimum wage was $1.60 an hour.
Mr. Schweitzer was no bleeding heart liberal, but by God he cared for the welfare of the chickens on his farm… right up to the day he would sell off the old hens to the Campbell Soup Company. His chickens were cage free. The coops were large with sufficient nesting boxes and roosting areas. While gathering eggs from the nesting boxes, I was taught by Mr. Schweitzer to be gentle in reaching under the hens and learn to endure their pecking at the back of my hand like a man. I grew to love those hens, especially the Rhode Island Reds.
This email from CWF points out the growing risks from the spread of bird flu. It affects a lot more than the price of eggs and chicken wings. The culling of flocks and herds is an age old farming practice. I doubt it will ever go away. But the practice of factory farming is a recipe for disaster. It’s akin to banging oneself over the head with a ball peen hammer and wondering why you have a splitting headache and blood flowing down your face. Factory farming is a monopoly that threatens far more than our economic well being. It affects the health and lives of millions of animals, our health and lives along with the souls of all living things.
BTW, don’t feel pressured in any way about telling Congress to stop factory farming by that embedded link. Follow your conscience.
TTG
BYD is expected to launch its next-gen Blade EV battery later this year. The battery will promote more range at an even lower cost. Will the new battery be BYD’s X-factor in its “liberation battle” over gas-powered vehicles? FinDreams, BYD’s battery unit, launched the first-generation Blade battery in 2020, revolutionizing the industry. BYD’s Blade batteries power Tesla, Ford, Kia, Hyundai, Toyota, and other popular electric vehicles from major automakers. The batteries are a major reason behind BYD’s success. The batteries are installed in most BYD models, such as the low-cost Seagull, Dolphin electric hatch, and Atto 3 SUV.
By using lithium-iron-phosphate as the cathode material, BYD can make the batteries much cheaper. Not only that, but they also offer competitive power density compared to NCM batteries. With a “Blade-like” design, the battery is built for maximum safety while offering “ultra-long range and ultra-long lifespan.” The longer, flatter design saves space and weight for better efficiency.
BYD is set to change the game again with its next-generation Blade EV battery. BYD’s CEO, Wang Chuanfu, said the new battery will be even smaller and lighter with the same endurance during a recent financial meeting, according to a report by Fast Technology.
BYD’s leader added that it will also reduce power consumption per 100 km, which will likely promote more range and performance. The company’s latest Blade batteries have an energy density of up to 150Wh/kg. BYD’s next-gen EV battery is expected to reach upwards of 190Wh/kg. This could enable fully electric models to exceed 621 miles (1,000 km) CLTC range, which would be the highest among LFP batteries. The report claims BYD will release the new battery as soon as August 2024.
Electrek’s Take (EV technology fan site)
After declaring a “liberation battle” on gas-powered cars earlier this year, BYD has launched a series of lower-priced EVs, undercutting rivals. BYD’s cheapest EV, the new Seagull, starts at just $9,700 (69,800 yuan). And it’s already creating a stir among legacy automakers. Ford’s CEO Jim Farley called the low-cost EV “pretty damn good,” as he warned rivals.
BYD claims new energy vehicles have entered “the knockout round” over gas-powered cars with superior tech and comparable prices. The comments come with its next-gen DM-i (PHEV) system due out soon, which is expected to enable nearly 1,200 miles (2,000 km) CLTC range. With new EVs rolling out in China, BYD sees joint venture brands’ market share falling from around 40% to 10% over the next three to five years. The leading Chinese EV maker is also quickly expanding overseas, with plans to sell one million vehicles overseas in 2025, up from 240,000 last year.
https://electrek.co/2024/04/08/byd-launch-next-gen-ev-battery-more-range-lower-price/
Comment: BYD (Build Your Dream) is the Chinese government’s favorite auto maker judging by the investment of $3.7 billion to win the global EV race. China and BYD intends to dominate the domestic market and give other automakers a serious run for the money internationally. This advance in battery technology could do that. The EV industry needs a serious advance in battery technology if it ever intends to go mainstream.
I don’t know how good these BYD EVs are. They might be the EV version of the Yugo or the Geo Metro. Besides being far too expensive, as are new ICE cars, the range and recharging times give me pause. Although given my driving habits, overnight charging form a home 240 volt level 2 charger is all I’ll ever need.
What I truly don’t like about these EVs is the reliance on a large centrally mounted touch screen to control most functions. Talk about distracted driving. I’m content with tactile buttons mostly mounted on the steering wheel and a small, through the wheel screen for needed information. Hands on the wheel and eyes on the road.
TTG
The recent statement from the NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson:
Iran has begun an airborne attack against Israel. President Biden is being regularly updated on the situation by his national security team and will meet with them this afternoon at the White House. His team is in constant communication with Israeli officials as well as other partners and allies. This attack is likely to unfold over a number of hours. President Biden has been clear: our support for Israel’s security is ironclad. The United States will stand with the people of Israel and support their defense against these threats from Iran.
Comment: So far I’ve heard anywhere from a few dozen to over 100 drones on the way. Cruise missiles may also have been launched. The IDF is, of course, on full alert. It definitely wasn’t a surprise. Is it a quest for real damage or a face saving measure? I’m not sure.
TTG
Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Russia’s ongoing strike campaign against Ukrainian energy facilities aims in part to devastate the Ukrainian defense industry, confirming ISW’s ongoing assessment that Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities aim to degrade Ukrainian defense industrial capacity. Putin stated during a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on April 11 that Russian drone and missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy sector are connected to Russia’s goal of “demilitarizing” Ukraine – one of his three stated goals in Ukraine. Putin characterized Russia’s ongoing strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure as a “forced” response to recent Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil and gas facilities and openly stated that Russian strikes indirectly aim to degrade Ukraine’s defense industrial capacity. The recent Russian strike campaign is degrading Ukraine’s power generation capacity while also exploiting reported Ukrainian air defense missile shortages in a renewed effort to collapse Ukraine’s power grid. Putin likely hopes to prevent Ukraine’s defense industry from developing to the point of near self-sufficiency in the long term as a strong defense industry could put Ukraine in a good position to defend against future Russian aggression and significantly reduce Ukraine’s dependence on Western aid. Significant delays in Western aid, due in part to successful Russian information operations and Western hesitancy, have created an opportunity for Russian offensive operations and Russia’s strike campaign.
ISW continues to assess that the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) over time can allow Ukraine to sustain its defense against Russia and longer-term national security needs with significantly reduced foreign military assistance. Ukrainian officials have expressed their intention to expand Ukraine’s DIB domestically and abroad since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov previously identified increased Ukrainian domestic production of weapons and military equipment as a priority for 2024. US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller has stated that the short- and medium-term provision of Western air defenses to Ukraine will be a critical element of Ukraine’s ability to stand up its defense industry, which will, in turn, decrease Ukrainian dependence on Western aid and especially US aid to Ukraine in the long term. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently emphasized that Ukraine cannot mitigate the lack of sufficient air defense systems and that only Western-provided air defense systems, namely Patriot systems, allow Ukraine to defend Ukraine against the intensified Russia strike campaign. ISW continues to assess that the US will not need to send large security assistance packages to Ukraine indefinitely if Ukraine can sufficiently expand its defensive industrial capacity, but the West’s provision of air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine is crucial for Ukraine’s ability to defend its energy infrastructure and its developing defense industry against Russian strikes.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-12-2024
Comment: Some of you are apoplectic over anything from the ISW, but I think they lay out this situation quite well. Surely we’ve all noticed that Russian air strikes have finally, after two plus years of dicking around, embarked on a clear strategy with a solid military goal… making a solid run at knocking out Ukraine’s major energy facilities. It’s sure smarter than taking pot shots at apartment blocks, although that continues. And, as ISW points out, it does seem to be aimed at crushing a developing Ukrainian defense industrial base. That’s some sound, long range thinking.
The obvious solution for Ukraine is to obtain more air defense systems. She needs all kinds and a lot more of each of them. Western Europe should be able to double Ukraines present three Patriot batteries. The US should give a few more. Unfortunately, everybody seems to want to hold on to what they got. But in an oddly unexpected move, the European Parliament moved to hold the discharge of the EU Council budget until additional Patriot systems are committed to Ukraine. Macron is also backing up his tough talk of a while ago with concrete aid. Japan, on the door step of China, is sending her Patriot missiles to the US so the US can resupply Ukraine with the missiles. There appears to be progress, but will it happen fast enough.
Ukraine is producing its Bohdana self-propelled howitzer at a rate of eight per month. They started the war with a few prototypes. Ukraine has also become one of the world’s leading producers (and users) of drones. The Czech Republic and Estonia have managed to scrounge up a buttload of ammunition around the world and the rest of Europe seems willing to foot the bill. Europe is finally upping the production of both artillery pieces and ammunition.
The US? Who knows. The White House is not only afraid of the Kremlin’s nuclear weapons, but also that Russia’s energy industry might be damaged by Ukrainian drones. A sizable minority of the Republicans in the House are content to see Putin rewarded for his war of aggression. At least the isolationists are doing it out of principle. Even the Japanese Prime Minister told a joint session of Congress to grow a pair.
TTG
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