Ukrainian forces resumed offensive operations in at least three areas within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and made tactical advances on January 5. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted multiple roughly company-sized mechanized assaults in the Berdin-Novosotnitsky direction (northeast of Sudzha) in three waves of attack using roughly a battalion’s worth of armored vehicles. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also intensified offensive operations in the direction of Leonidovo (southeast of Korenevo) and conducted a reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault near Pushkarnoye (east of Sudzha). Geolocated footage published on January 5 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced in fields southwest and south of Berdin and entered the southern part of the settlement. Russian milbloggers published updated maps of the Kursk area of operations that indicate that Ukrainian forces also occupy Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, and Mikhaylovka (all northeast of Sudzha and southwest of Berdin) as of January 5 and reported that Ukrainian forces recently entered Novosotnitsky (just east of Berdin); and advanced in fields west of Yamskaya Step (immediately northwest of Berdin) and west of Novaya Sorochina (north of Sudzha and northwest of Berdin). Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces also conducted offensive operations near Nikolskiy and Alexandriya (east and southeast of Leonidovo, respectively) and north of Russkaya Konopelka (east of Sudzha) towards Pushkarnoye in small infantry groups but did not provide details about the extent of any possible Ukrainian advances in these areas. Russian milbloggers largely expressed concern that the renewed Ukrainian effort in Kursk Oblast may be a diversionary effort and claimed that it is too early to determine whether these operations in Kursk could be part of a future main effort.
Russian forces also advanced southeast of Sudzha and counterattacked against intensified Ukrainian attacks southeast of Korenevo and north of Sudzha on January 5. Geolocated footage published on January 5 shows that Russian forces advanced in western and southern Makhnovka (just southeast of Sudzha). Russian milbloggers claimed that unspecified Russian airborne (VDV) elements pushed Ukrainian forces from Makhnovka and Dmitryukov (immediately northeast of Makhnovka). A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces may have advanced into Makhnovka “some time ago, however. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on January 4 that Russian and North Korean forces lost up to a battalion of infantry near Makhnovka on January 3 and 4. Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also advanced southeast of Makhnovka and along a road into southeastern Kurilovka (immediately southwest of Makhnovka). ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims, however. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced during counterattacks against Ukrainian assaults east of Leonidovo towards Nikolskiy and in the direction of Malaya Loknya (northeast of Sudzha) on January 5. Another Russian milblogger claimed that a Russian mechanized column unsuccessfully attempted to advance towards Malaya Loknya, however. The milblogger complained that Ukrainian forces destroy most Russian mechanized columns in Kursk Oblast. Elements of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]), Chechen Akhmat “Aida” Spetsnaz group, former Wagner Group personnel, and unspecified BARS (Russian Combat Army Reserve) units reportedly defended against the Ukrainian effort in Kursk Oblast.
Russian sources expressed concern about the Russian military’s ability to react to Ukraine’s ongoing combined arms efforts to integrate electronic warfare (EW) and long-range strike capabilities with ground operations. Several Russian milbloggers claimed on January 5 that Ukrainian EW interference during Ukrainian assaults in Kursk Oblast prevented Russian forces from operating drones in the area, degrading Russian forces’ ability to defend against Ukrainian mechanized attacks. Russian milbloggers claimed that drones with fiber optic cables are one of the few Russian drone variants that consistently resist Ukrainian EW countermeasures, although some Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces were able to use some first-person view (FPV) and Lancet drones. Russian officials claimed on January 5 that Russian forces downed three unspecified Ukrainian missiles over Kursk Oblast, suggesting that Ukrainian forces may be attempting to integrate longer-range strike capabilities with ground operations and tactical EW systems. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted HIMARS strikes near Bolshoye Soldatskoye and other unspecified areas in Kursk Oblast to prevent Russian forces from deploying reinforcements, artillery systems, and drone operators. Widespread Russian concern over Russia’s ability to respond to improved Ukrainian EW technology and long-range strike capabilities indicates that Russian forces may be struggling to quickly adapt to Ukrainian battlefield innovations. Reports that Ukrainian forces are using long-range fires to interdict Russian rear areas and EW to degrade Russian drones in support of Ukrainian mechanized advances indicate that Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk are employing more effective combined arms tactics.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-5-2025
Comment: ISW based this initial assessment of the new Kursk offensive largely on the accounts of Russian mil bloggers. The so-called offensive is a series of tactical assaults involving company sized armored formations heavily supported by EW assets, drones and deep fires. At this level, Ukrainian Army leadership, company and maybe battalion, is pretty damned effective.
These advances are only tactical in nature. I think they’re only aimed at tying down Russian and North Korean units, inflict casualties and disrupt Russian logistical centers at Berdin and Bolshoe Soldatskoe with HIMARS and even tube artillery. At any rate, I waited a few days to see if these tactical advances fizzled out in a day or two. They haven’t. Fighting continues.
This also reemphasizes the fact that Putin still cannot expel Ukrainian troops from Russian territory. He promised they would gone by the New Year. He brought in tens of thousands of North Korean troops to fulfill that promise. Now he’s settling for eventually expelling the Ukrainians with no time table. That’s a more realistic declaration, but it’s politically embarrassing for him. Now he’s sent one of his toughest generals to organize the fight back against Ukraine’s surprise Sunday morning counter-offensive. General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov is the Kremlin’s current Deputy Minister of Defense in charge of border security and Russia’s operations in Africa. He was sent to Kursk not long after Ukrainian tanks started their tactical advance, probably shortly after Russia lost several hundred VDV and North Korean casualties in a day of futile attacks near Makhnovka.
This is also a good time to point out the serious problems plaguing the Kremlin and the Red Army. Sure all of Ukraine is continuously clobbered from the air, the Army is taking casualties at an unacceptable rate and public sentiment is no longer supportive of Zelenskiy’s every inch of Ukraine no matter what the cost strategy, but Russia is also tetering on the edge. A quick summary of Russia’s problems is covered in this Kyiv Post interview with Chuck Pharrer and Jason Jay Smart. Both are notorious cheerleaders for Ukraine, but what they say cannot be ignored. They also offer some good insights into how this Ukrainian mini-offensive is proceeding.
TTG
There is a Russian-Israeli-Canadian guy I am friendly with at the gym. Every time I see him I ask “how is the war going”. He does not want to talk about Israel’s war, but he insists that he is very happy with how Russia’s war is going (he is pro-Russia).
So I think the Russians believe they are winning. But if I was going to bet on this war, I would still place my bet wherever TTG placed his bet.
General Yevkurov is an interesting pick to send to Kursk. He’s ethnic Ingush. He was in a coma for a week or more back 15 years ago after an assassination attempt when he was governor of Ingushetia. Although it’s not clear whether that coma was medically induced by his doctors – or was a result of his concussion or other injuries. Hell of a good leader at Pristina and Grozny. But since then he’s been a governor for ten years and after that a junior Deputy in the Kremlin in charge of training and Putin’s African adventure. Doesn’t seem to have done well in either. Let’s hope he keeps up that record of failure.
leith,
It may be the Russians aren’t in any hurry about liberating “Kursk”. Ukraine has, according to most, some of their very best units fighting up there. Might have been deemed a bad idea to chase them out of there, where they can throw the Norks at them, and down to Pokrovsk.
Mark –
You’re saying they could not throw the Norks at Pokrovsk? Did Kim place a geographical limit or fence on their deployment?
leith
So far the reporting is the Norks can not, by law, be used outside of Russia.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/north-korean-troops-deploy-russia-whats-military-effect
Putin could legally deploy the conscripts within Russia so he could use them in Kursk too, but to date the news is still that Putin hasn’t. Using the contract troops to do the fighting there by most accounts, but it is likely he is using them in fairly safe supporting roles up there.
Mark –
Both Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are part of Russia per Putin and the Russian Parliament. Doesn’t Kim agree with that?
lieth,
If Norks ever appear anywhere else within the zone of combat we will know.
I suspect Lil’ Kim has limited goals in involving his military in this mess. Solidify their relationship with Russia, they have so few friends in the world, and get some combat experienced troops out of it. It’s been three generations since they’ve been in a fight and a lot has changed.
Mark –
Ukrainian troops in Kursk are saying the NorKo are better trained soldiers and better marksmen than the majority of Russkis. Not surprising since many Russian conscripts are only getting two or three weeks of basic training. Putin is also emptying the prisons of criminals to fight in this war.
I suspect the Korean People’s Army Ground Forces don’t have anything to learn from Russia. Although it’s a much different story for their Air Force and Missile Forces who reportedly are getting technology updates from the Kremlin.
Two caveats on my above comment. NorKo troops in Kursk are of course learning about how to work with and against FPV drones, and about EW.
A Ukrainian official has been saying that other than that the NorKo troops are: “young, motivated, physically fit, brave, and good at using small arms. They are also disciplined. They have everything you need for a good infantryman.”
They’ve been used in direct assaults on Ukrainian lines. Typically as a subunit of a Russian VDV or Marine formation.
That quote from my last came from this source:
https://www.politico.eu/article/north-koreans-skilled-fighters-rather-kill-themselves-then-get-captured-ukrainian-soldiers-say/
I doubt much will result from such an offensive if the Russians keep up their preformance from the first Ukrainian attacks. My guess is it will be like the 2023 summer offensive with lots of losses and little gain for Ukraine.
A Russian view on the first attacks.
https://old.bitchute.com/video/fD6SRhMg2lkL/
Is this a joke ?
All that this Ukrainian “offensive” managed to accomplish is to take one street in Berdin at the cost of many units of hard to replace equipment and men.
Meanwhile, the Russians have been taking several settlements a week for months now and the Kursk salient keeps shrinking daily.
A video on Truth Social of Jeffrey Sachs giving Netanyahu a strong ribbing is an omen for not only Israel but also Ukraine. Trump himself posted a reference to the speech:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/VtFkJUfYEDp9
These wars are going to end swiftly. The Ukraine will spring back into its original place on this planet of being trapped between the east and the west and having to bargain for its survival.
A real bummer for the US MIC and Israel but the world has changed. The short cycle of causing mayhem and chaos to loot everyone is ending.
As for Kursk, sure Ukraine may be gaining some ground there but they are losing way more daily big picture. I would post a video of it but I will be deemed a Russian stooge. Believe what you want to believe.
babelthuap – the “Putin Pals” you mention are called Putinversteher in Germany. Putin Trolls in England. Irritating. That kneejerk refusal to look over the other side of the fence, to see how it looks from there, could well do for us Europeans.
Also means that unless one wishes to live like a hermit in either country it’s essential to shut up on the subject of the Ukrainian war. For me, anyway. All in my circle in both countries take it for granted that Putin’s sinister, evil, wants to take over the world, and all in all is not a very nice man.
But then all in my circle also regard Trump as sinister and evil. And not a very nice man either.
Not sure how this inversion of the truth has occurred. Looks to me instead as if Putin’s easily the greatest statesman of the 21st Century. Lavrov, for that matter, easily the most accomplished diplomat. Trump, the most important thing that’s happened to the US in my lifetime.
In fact not all in my circle disagree with those obvious statements, I’m happy to say. Little oases of sanity are to be found here and there in England and I even encounter some of them personally. But Germany? None.
Worrying. Looks to me as if Germany’s going down with no one in it, absolutely no one, having the faintest notion why.
Your mention of Jeffrey Sachs brought all that to mind. Sachs also regards Putin and Lavrov as immensely impressive. Says as much in his Carlson interview. But in the same interview he confesses he’s baffled by Germany. Says so here. 35.42. Leads in by discussing European security generally. The passage lasts two or three minutes:-
https://youtu.be/JS-3QssVPeg?t=1906
So two of the brightest men around, Sachs and Putin, don’t “get it”. They don’t know how Germany, and therefore the EU with it, has got itself in such a pickle.
But there’s no mystery about it at all. All the talk of Europe being dragged willy-nilly to destruction by the big bad United States of America is quite the wrong way round. In the run-up to February 2022 the Europoodles saw the chance of becoming big players on Uncle Sam’s dime. So they took it.
Barbarossa Scholz now wishes he hadn’t. Poor sap. Quem Deus vult perdere, prius dementat.
But surely it’s obvious! In the run up to ’22 Europe had a larger real economy than the US. It had a better international reputation. It was expanding further (still is.) And it was moving fast to ever greater union: Brexit was an anomaly that was being rectified even as it was occurring and was expected to be rectified further over the coming years.
And yet it was a no account player, in no way to be compared with the big players such as the US or China or India. Also had no military of any significance. France, obsolete aircraft and interesting but scarcely formidable six-wheeled tanks. The UK, the best army going of course but what can you do with an army that would have trouble filling half a football stadium? Germany, once the military Colossus of Europe, having trouble rustling up enough broomsticks for the men to train with. So no military and no place at the big table for poor old Europe.
.
EO,
Putin doesn’t want the world. He just wants Ukraine back in his loyal near abroad, except for the four oblasts he’s already declared part of Russia.
TTG – so agree. The future of a few other regions is still unclear but I don’t believe Putin wants Western Ukraine at all. He just wants to dump it in Europe’s lap, always providing he can find a way of preventing it becoming a forward base for NATO again.
Still wondering if or how he’s going to solve that puzzle. Trump could. He’s a free man as far as the Ukrainian war goes – he just has to blame it all on the previous administration, which is more or less true. Position himself as the man coming in to clean up Biden’s mess.
But the Euros can’t do that. It’s their mess too and they’re stuck with it.
Russia want all oblasts stolen by Lenin an given to Ukraine 100 years ago.
Simple as tat.
I guess we will have to wait for the Putin Pals to regurgitate Russian propaganda to get the real story here. What I find unusual is that these Russian military bloggers are as public as they are. That has to add to the headaches they are dealing with as Ukraine is occupying part of their territory. But what may soon become more important is that Russia is taking a lot of casualties, both militarily and economically. That is heading to a critical level and it is doubtful that Putin has what it takes to get out of it. It is so much easier to create problems than solving them.
Lars,
A curious thing I saw happen at Dimi’s Military Summary site back in 22 right after the big reversal at Kherson and Kharkov:
A commenter named “Putin” thanked Dimi for his efforts and Dimi was convinced that this commenter really was Putin. After a short conversation the commenter asked Dimi to please provide morning reports, and since that day Dimi has proved two reports a day but all the comments by “Putin” disappeared. Somewhere later Dimi mentioned not to worry about the crack-down on mil-bloggers that got Girkin jailed affecting him.
It seems plausible to me for Putin to have given a limited license to some of the Russian open-source mil-bloggers as a check on being lied to by his own military, as all leaders should worry about that in a war and it is likely at least some of the generals tried to snow him during the bad times. It may be that as long as they don’t call for regime-change in Moscow (Girkin’s cardinal sin), they are OK to say whatever they want. Fairly recently Rybar busted a Russian officer for faking the taking of a village.
Mark Logan,
Or maybe there is just a lot more freedom of speech in Russia than you have been led to believe and the Russian government tolerates mil-bloggers for the same reason that the US government does.
Mark –
The UK in WW2 had a radio unit that monitored their own troops communications as a check against being given inflated snow jobs. The US did the same late in the war.
TTG you and Lang said Russia had culminated years ago.
Revenire,
Yes, they did. They did not take Kyiv. They lost Kherson. And the Zelenskiy government still stands. Their offensives culminated several times, as did several Ukrainian offensives.
Actually, that is a big NO TTG.
You both said it was all over for Russia. On March 30 2022, you personally denied Mariupol had fallen – twice!
Before that, on March 14 2022 Mr Pat Lang said Russia had two weeks left.
Revenire,
Mariupol didn’t fall until the middle of May. I remember Pat saying Russia had two weeks left. I thought he was premature, but two weeks later the Russians had to start pulling back from Kyiv. Their three day or three week SMO failed. Their three plus year war may succeed at a terrible cost to all of Russia.
TTG please find me a Russian government official who said they would take Ukraine in three days, or three weeks. There aren’t any. That formulation comes from Mark Milley.
Do you really think it was possible for Russia to take Kiev with the small force it sent toward it, or was it a gamble to end the war quickly – which worked as there was a peace agreement, per the Ukrainians, that would have ended the war then, with Ukraine getting far more than it will ever get now.
There never was any doubt of Russian victory. Russia hasn’t even mobilized. They are outproducing the entire West in terms of munitions, and that is without North Korean shells. They have more men.
I can remember you featuring Thomas Theiner on the counteroffensive – a man with zero credentials to analyze military affairs. I can only guess you posted his screed because you liked what it said i.e. confirmation bias.
The longer this goes on, the more Ukraine will lose.
As far as the cost to Russia goes… whatever it is Putin decided long ago it was worth it. Ukraine will never be in NATO, there won’t be any NATO peacekeepers, etc. My guess is Russia is going to roll up to the Dneiper and stop, see if negotiations brings them what they want, and if not continue. The western parts of Ukraine can be the new rump Ukraine.
Revenire,
Published on 26 February 2022 in RIA Novosti and Sputnik:
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-russian-state-media-article-deleted-after-suggesting-russia-victory-achieved-12553977
https://camarra.substack.com/p/may-10-petr-akopov-the-offensive?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
This was queued to be published prior to the invasion and was quickly taken down once it became clear that Putin’s SMO to decapitated Zelenskiy’s government and install their puppet regime failed. It lays out what the Kremlin hoped to accomplished. It worked in Crimea, but it failed miserably in Kyiv.
TTG,
“Published on 26 February 2022 in RIA Novosti and Sputnik”
“This was queued to be published prior to the invasion and was quickly taken down”
In the old days, Time magazine had 2 different covers and 2 sets of articles to be published. That’s just for the bragging right to say “first!” isn’t it? That’s normal for news oranizations to do.
I don’t recall any Russian official source predicting 3-day or 3-week victory either.
TonyL,
Both RIA Novosti and Sputnik are owned and operated by the Russian government. The author of the article still works at RIA Novosti so he wasn’t writing anything contrary to the government’s position.
Meh. I don’t see this increasing the chances that Ukraine can capture any strategically important objectives inside Russia. They got Sudzha (Gas Hub) in the first push, but everything since then is just more WWI redux (“progress” measured in cm/casualty). Ukraine seems bent on trading scarce resources for bragging rights.
I suppose that there’s a chance that killing enough Korean soldiers might break that alliance (“Kursk is N. Korea’s Afghanistan”?), but that seems far-fetched, from what I hear about Kim’s propaganda machine.
TTG,
To paraphrase you: This also reemphasizes the fact that Zelensky still cannot expel Russian troops from Russian territory. Ok left that last “Russian” in there. Kind of like their troops, who aren’t leaving. In less than two weeks Trump’s in charge of US foreign policy and the global Borg network and domestic ‘useful idiots’ off all stripes can threaten, whine, cray ‘convicted felon’ and all the rest but Ukraine will be out of US money. I don’t think Europe has any for them either.
A view of the Climate Comintern actions in CA and it’s ongoing ideological driven disaster for home and business owners of all classes, and the complete failure of legacy media to cover the still ongoing housing crisis in NC, will give you an idea of what Trump will focus on: Domestic needs. That will mean an end to funding these wars, including Gaza/Syria/Yemen.
Fred,
Zelenskiy stated last year that the only way he is going to get all Ukrainian territory back is through negotiation.
And I wouldn’t count on Trump leaving the world to itself. He’s already written off lowering grocery bills and he’s making all kinds of noises about expanding the US territory, all hell breaking loose if the Israeli hostages aren’t released and I’, no longer sure he’s willing to turn his back on Ukraine. He’s all for US dominance.
TTG,
I hear the reservoirs not built in CA were due to Trump.
The record rainfall that didn’t fill existing ones? Trump.
Grocery prices? Why Bidenomics is working wonders.
On a bright note Bass was Pelosi’s choice for VP. She’s only managing to burn down LA with incompetence. So Harris for the win on that one.
“Turn his back on” better the nation he never gave a damn about than turning his back on the USA. Like the borg and Democrats have been doing.
Fred,
The last reservoir built in California was in 1979. The next one will cost $4.4 billion. It’s due to start construction this year, but won’t be completed until 2030 or 2031. A bond to start construction/site planning was approved in 2014. Newsom has been pushing the approvals. Trump had nothing to do with hindering or helping the project.
TTG,
I agree that Trump had zero to do with this issue.
I also know that LA and CA have some of the highest municipal and state taxes in the Republic. They are ill served by the cultural marxists running the state and city into the ground over ideology and/or greed.
I think that now is the time for Zelensky to launch his forces back over the Dnipro River and re-establish the Ukrainian toe-hold on Krynky.
You know he wants to, and it makes about as much military sense as this “renewed Ukrainian offensive” of company-size invading forces.
TTG: “This also reemphasizes the fact that Putin still cannot expel Ukrainian troops from Russian territory. He promised they would gone by the New Year.”
No, he didn’t.
The original claim was that Putin promised that they would be gone by October 2024, but I can only trace that claim back to here:
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ukraine-kursk-incursion-approval-1943368
“Putin is reported to have ordered his forces to push back Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region by October 1, according to RBC Ukraine.”
That, obviously, is not a quote and so Putin is being verballed.
The claim about Putin then “promised” they would be gone by the New Year appears to come from here:
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ally-russia-ukraine-kursk-year-end-2002953
That verballing is even more tenuous, based as it is on a (rather ambitious) bit of inductive reasoning regarding a statement by Gerasimov that “all the tasks set by the country’s leadership for the military in 2024 have been completed”.
Since Putin never set any deadline of October 2024 then that bit of induction is… well… drawing a very long bow.
Western media coverage of the Kursk incursion has been abysmal. Utterly
There isn’t any quote from Putin about Kursk being liberated by New Year’s. It is just like the “Kiev in three days” myth i.e. never happened.
The trouble with a lot of the so-called pro-Ukraine guys is they believe the BS fed to them: the Russian casualty numbers, the Oryx equipment losses stats, the Andrew Perpetua ones, the Operator Starsky hoo rah rah, Thomas Theiner (who was particularly funny during the failed counteroffensive – which was reprinted on this site), Ghost of Kyiv, and so on.
How many times have we heard Russia is down to two weeks of missiles, out of this or that, on her back, going to collapse?
The pro-Ukraine crowd (and they are not really pro-Ukraine or they would have insisted on Ukrainian surrender and. negotiations to save lives and territory) said Putin was dying of numerous diseases, was using body doubles, etc. It is pretty funny to look back.
he hasn’t quite figured out how to bully the Europeans. he thinks it’s easy to push Canada, Mexico & Panama around. at the rate he’s going, he’ll go down in history for creating about 20 more nuclear-armed nations.
For an alternative view on the Bolshoye Soldatskoye offensive, have a look at Mark Takacs vid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=226ILCWvnko
He does not see evidence of Ukraine following up on the initial advance on Berdin.
drifter,
That Mark Takacs does a good job of explaining these tactical maneuvers. I’m going to see if he covers other battles. What I’ve seen of most assaults, both Ukrainian and Russian, is that they occur at the company level or below. The big difference is that the Russians will launch repeated assaults one after another all day, casualties be damned.
TTG – may I pick up on a comment from one of your Russia experts?
aleksandar – with some diffidence I do have to disagree with you. It’s not as simple as that.
It’s not merely a question of which oblasts the Russians decide to reincorporate. Absolutely not! It’s a question of how the Russians deal with the oblasts in the west of Ukraine they don’t want and would prefer not to have to occupy.
Occupy remnant Ukraine and there can be no pretence that the people there are “coming home”. No Russkiy Mir for them. They don’t want to be occupied and that’s that.
Don’t occupy and remnant Ukraine remains a base from which NATO can launch assassination and sabotage attacks. Plus “look no hands” drone and missile attacks into Russia. And the neo-Nazi monuments would stay up. Scarcely the “demilitarisation and denazification” that Putin has throughout insisted are the core objectives of the SMO.
Just possibly the Ukrainians themselves will remove our puppet government in Kiev and instal one that could come to an agreement with the Russians on these questions. But I see none of the experts considering that as a possibility.
The only other solution would be that NATO pulls back and makes it clear it no longer intends to use remnant Ukraine for such purposes. Trump may be able to do that. We don’t know. But I can’t imagine the Europeans would be. They’re still on the Russia delenda est tack.
So that problem of remnant Ukraine could well remain one for which the Russians will be unable to devise any satisfactory solution. Unless there’s some give somewhere they may well be forced to occupy.
Not as difficult as it would have been in ’22, occupying remnant Ukraine. There were never that many neo-Nazis, or “ultras” and by the end most will have left for Europe. Even so, still a poor solution. Is that the best that can be expected?
EO –
You are right but for the wrong reasons. If the Kremlin does not occupy your so-called ‘remnant Ukraine’, then patriotic Ukrainians there will continue to use missiles and long-range drones on strategic targets within Russia. Poor Putin, he’s trapped between a rock and a hard place. Or it’s more like “hoist with his own petard” as once penned by your famous countryman.
If NATO pulls out most of that won’t happen, Leith. Most of the missiles need NATO personnel to do the targeting. The long range drones, if they are truly that and not launched by nearby saboteurs, need NATO ISR. The terrorist attacks inside Russia may not need NATO assistance but so far they’ve been getting it.
The articles in WAPO and the NYT make that clear.
We in the West don’t most of us understand the extent to which this war has been directed by NATO since 2014. Not only the fighting, though we now know that military nonsense like the “Summer Offensive” or Kursk was NATO planned – the Ukrainians themselves weren’t at all keen. It’s even possible that the Bucha atrocity got a bit of a steer from us. Dead certain that the attacks on nuclear power stations are in the main down to us. No NATO, and a lot of that would cease.
But you’re still right. Remnant Ukraine, left to itself, could at the least become a source of sporadic terrorism inside Russia. As said before, just as the Americans wouldn’t put up with that from Mexico, the Russians need to find a way of stopping it from remnant Ukraine.
I hope they don’t have to do that by occupying. At one time we had to stop terrorist attacks from Northern Ireland and it was a nasty brutal business. The Russians would find it even more so in this case.
As said, Trump could help out a lot with a solution. He’s not a little angel – far from it when you see how he sometimes cheers on the Gaza atrocities – but he’s not psycho like the current foreign policy teams in Washington and Berlin/Brussels. He doesn’t like seeing dead bodies around and he’s enough of a businessman to see that the psycho stuff’s not paying off for his country.
OK, I thought that in 2016 and was a fool. But this time round he may pull it off. If he does, he really will be the most important thing to have happened to the US – to the West indeed, because you can write the Europoodles off – in your and my lifetimes.
EO,
NATO was fairly laid back in its military support of Ukraine in 2014. That includes the US. The sanctions on Russia after that first invasion were lame. The weapons shipments and training picked up a lot under Trump. Trump sent the Javelins used so effectively in the early weeks of the invasion, not Obama.
Biden was fairly effective in rallying NATO in the lead up to the 2022 invasion and pushing the sanctions. I’m pretty damned sure he was hoping all that would deter the Russians. It didn’t obviously and Biden did keep the coalition and sanctions in place. Since then, his policy of escalation management was and remains a big mistake in my opinion. This administration was far more worried about Russia doing something crazy (not an unreasonable concern) or the Putin regime collapsing and then definitely doing something crazy than the freedom of the Ukrainians or shortening the war.
Not sure what Trump will do, but he won’t do any of that escalation management bullshit. I don’t think he’ll lose any sleep about Putin thinking about doing something crazy, either. I think he is salivating about cornering the gas market for Europe and would gladly do so at Putin’s expense. Zelenskiy no longer seems overly concerned about Trump’s next move.
TTG – I’m being a bit stars in the eyes about how Trump could move the dial on this one. Don’t call me a fool quite yet!
Sachs was catapulted into the foreground recently. When it comes to a solution of the other big foreign policy issue maybe he’s got stars in his eyes too:-
https://youtu.be/7FhJULHpI_M?t=32
But I hope Sachs is not being unrealistic. On both issues, Israel and Ukraine, there are a lot of deaths to come unless Trump can turn things round.
On Ukraine, I’m way out of line with most opinions held on the matter. I believe Washington and Berlin/Brussels deliberately put Putin in an impossible position. He either had to intervene and brave the sanctions or he had to watch the people of the Donbass being subjected to ethnic cleansing. Strobe Talbot’s email might or might not have been sent but its alleged content sums it all up. We had Putin “cornered” at last.
This was a war deliberately provoked by Washington and Berlin/Brussels/UK, the crucial European part in it almost entirely overlooked or misinterpreted by most American commentators. It was provoked in order to enable the “Sanctions from Hell” to be imposed that it was hoped would wreck the Russian economy and thus destabilise the RF.
As said, not a view generally held, if held at all. But the sequel will be common ground. After the sanctions failed, and after the Russians avoided what I’ve termed the “Afghanistan trap”, this war was well and truly lost. Why did we insist on its continuation at the cost of so many hundreds of thousands of pointless deaths?
That’s a question the Ukrainians are already asking and will be asking more insistently as the war grinds on to its inevitable conclusion. Maybe if they ask it insistently enough right now they’ll be able to save something from the wreckage. That’s where Trump could play a decisive role.
“Could.” In the coming weeks we’ll see whether he’s up to it or whether the Beltway will manage to keep him in line.
To return to Sachs. If I’m reading him right he’s saying that the Israeli tail is wagging the American dog. But is this not the main feature of American foreign policy over the last few decades? The leveraging of American military, financial and diplomatic power by this or that ally in order to pursue the interests of that ally rather than American interests.
So it is with Israel. So it was with the Europeans. As said before, hoping to achieve their own ends on America’s dime.
Time that stopped, I argue. Easy enough for the Europeans to pull the US neocons into the Ukrainian venture. The neocons are always up for a scrap. Easy enough for Netanyahu to do the same in his region. But what an appalling mess it’s all resulted in! As Sachs says, time for the United States “to start running its own foreign policy”. Time to stop the tail wagging the dog, if this ruinous way of running American foreign policy is to be avoided.
EO,
I wouldn’t call you a fool for believing/hoping Trump will act in support of Russia over Ukraine. Your opinion is just as valid as my belief/hope that he will continue to support Ukraine’s desire to remain free at this point. We won’t know what he’ll do until he does it.
EO –
Ukraine makes their own long range drones. They have about 20 different models: https://bsky.app/profile/covertshores.bsky.social
Ukraine has used western missiles in the past, but those are limited by NATO in what they can be used for. But Ukraine also has at least two domestic made cruise missiles, the R-360 Neptune and the Trembita. Production figures for Neptune are 100/year; and for Trembita 1000/month. As for ballistic missiles Ukraine finished testing the Hrim 2 late last year and has now started full production. Hrim is a TBM with an equivalent range of ATACMS and a larger warhead.
As for targetting, Ukraine may have gotten some coordinates from NATO IMINT in the past, but those would have been useless without Ukrainian HUMINT sources like Atesh and others on the ground in the Russian Federation. And if NATO IMINT sources dry up then Ukraine’s targeteers can still rely on Maxar satellite imagery, which has a resolution of 0.41 meters (about 16 inches).
Leith – Russia isn’t going to allow anyone to use missiles and long-range drones against Russia from rump Ukraine. Anyone doing so will be destroyed.
Revenire,
Ah, another so called red line. Russia is having a hell of a time dealing with the missiles and long-range drones from Ukraine hitting targets deep in Russian territory.
May I insert a note to the above – “Just possibly the Ukrainians themselves will remove our puppet government in Kiev and instal one that could come to an agreement with the Russians on these questions.”
Have just seen an article by Gordon Hahn mentioning this possibility. Hahn is familiar with the Ukrainian political landscape. A recent article indicates that a Trump-brokered resolution of the conflict need not be that unlikely. My bolding and paragraphing:-
“Although Russian puppet regime or Ukraine’s disappearance as an independent state are becoming more likely, peace talks between the future Trump administration and the Kremlin could produce an agreement that allows for an independent, rump and, crucially, neutral and largely military-denuded Ukraine.
“In such conditions, a clever, practical Ukrainian government might play off the West and the Sino-Russian-led Rest against each other to Ukraine’s benefit, as the overthrown Viktor Yanukovych once did.”
https://gordonhahn.com/2025/01/11/the-potential-for-an-anti-western-ukrainian-turn-to-the-east/
The Ukrainian oligarchs have always been key. They must be uneasy as they see their fortunes and future sources of income at risk.
Some of the things Arestovych has been saying are in line with this possible scenario. Arestovych is no good as a source. Reminds me of Boris Johnson. Can do 180’s at the drop of a hat. But like Johnson, he’s sharp at knowing which way the wind is blowing.
Some time ago Arestovych said that Ukraine had backed the wrong horse. Should have thrown in its lot with the Russians. He wouldn’t have shot off at that angle had he not picked up sentiments like that from some elements in the Ukrainian political scene.
So the idea that a solution to the conflict might come from within Ukraine itself cannot be entirely ruled out.
EO,
Ukraine had two elections since the “Yats is our guy” times. The idea of ending the war in negotiations is getting quite popular among the Ukrainians, but submitting themselves to Russian rule is not. They are becoming more intent on becoming a full fledged part of Europe.
E.O.,
So you don’t see that the February 23 snap elections could make any real difference? I, for one, am now wondering what a strong showing by Alice Weidel’s party, the AfD, would mean for Germany and the Schengen Agreement. Could unmistakable signs of rising, angry nationalism with real public hostility to Islam and current immigration policies force a new coalition government to finally close the national frontiers and go back to the far more time-consuming way of getting people into the country via customs, border guards with dogs, etc.? I have some memories of that. One being “advanced” based on legal documents? Alice Weidel has recently stated that Angela Merkel ruined Germany. She uses a new term I was not familiar with, ‘remigration.’ I see things changing. And if not enough, or if not soon enough, then there will develop a German terrorist movement that will randomly kill Americans, targeting particularly American soldiers. I suspect that young Germans know who stabbed them in the back.
It is going to be bad.
Tidewater – Yes. It does look as if it’s going to be bad. Would the dissident movements, BSW or AfD, be able to pull back in time? Just heard Wagenknecht’s recent keynote speech:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcFcyjjL6Zk&t=1s&ab_channel=phoenix
Laments the decline of Germany over the past few decades. Don’t we all. Rather glosses over the attack on Freedom of Speech. It’s worse than she says. Criticises the Americans. Doesn’t mention that the Germans are considerably more Russophobic and I got the impression in the early days that the bulk of the German public was more enthusiastic about the war with Russia than was the American. Until the bills fell due.
Doesn’t seem to know what Scholz & Co. were up to in the run up to February 2022. Nor that Merkel, Empress of Europe at that time, set Ukraine on course for the Maidan in the 2013 Association Agreement negotiations. All talk about the Burns memo and so on. None about the fact that it was Angie who delivered the coup de grâce to that unfortunate country.
And drove it home with playing fast and loose with Minsk II. “Was für einen Saustall hat die Merkel uns hinterlassen.” That was said by a friend about the neglect of German infrastructure. Applies even more to German foreign policy.
Those reservations apart, I thought it an impressive performance. Farage, eat your heart out. Not sure I could vote for her were I German but then, voting’s so passé these days in Europe anyway. You know more about German politics. Would she or Weidl be able to make a difference quickly enough for it to matter?
Tidewater –
Have AfD and Weidel justified or denied or spoken at all of the Russian sabotage of the undersea Rostock-Helsinki cable?
Or:
The Russki espionage drones flying over Luftwaffe airfields, LNG and oil terminals and seaports?
The GRU incendiary device in a parcel that ignited and started a fire in a warehouse in Leipzig of the German logistics company DHL?
Russian plot to kill the chief executive of Germany’s biggest arms company Rheinmetall, Armin Pappenberger?
Russian wiretapping of Luftwaffe phones?
Holes cut in fences at Bundeswehr base at Cologne-Wahn, and at a Bundeswehr water supply?
Oops! Forgot to add two more:
The severing of fiber-optic cables necessary for the communication system of Germany’s national railway, Deutsche Bahn, in October 2022:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtyYkWArjzM
Russian jamming/spoofing of GPS signals used by Lufthansa and other European air carriers:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-is-russia-jamming-plane-signals-across-europe/
Leith,
Thanks for that. I have to write that down. I had noted some of that. Good stuff, thanks. (Bit of a reach, if those folks cutting through etc. were Moravians or such, right?) Yes, I have paid attention. I mean I thought I was the ‘ cable cutter’ guy to go to. And by the way, about that…. Oh well, later. (Actually, I am pretty fucked up right now. Just red wine. I lost in court, I guess yesterday, and today I got some sympathy, well, maybe not exactly unexpected, but maybe yes. From someone just as hot as those two German really lovely women, one from the left etc. one from the right. She’s more than a bit German ,too. Starke. Intense, like unbelievable. ( These new dominatrix. Do you know what they are saying! It is fucking hilarious. I mean, isn’t this like a reversal or something that makes Jane Fonda , and all that, if you remember….)
Do you know the poem by Keith Douglas “Vergissmeinich?” Steffi. I think about her. All the poets coming along were killed in WWII, of course.
Quod scripsi, scripsi.
The lifting of sanctions again touched on. To recap, in his June 2024 speech to the Foreign Office Putin made the lifting of all sanctions a pre-condition of a settlement, that condition repeated by Lavrov in his Newsweek interview.
https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1957107/
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-russias-lavrov-warns-dangerous-consequences-us-ukraine-1964468
That’s last year. The issue hasn’t gone away. In a brief report on a recent statement by Rubio Tass also picks up on sanctions (my bolding):-
WASHINGTON, January 15. /TASS/. Questions of Kiev’s neutral status and the possible easing of anti-Russian sanctions will ultimately be on the agenda of any Ukrainian conflict settlement talks, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to the post of the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said.
Speaking about the possibility of negotiations on Ukraine, he said: “When you get and sit at the table, you’re going to have to give, not just get. And sanctions, and the release of sanctions could be a part of that, assuming that the conditions are appropriate.”
Commenting on the subject of Ukraine’s neutral status, Rubio emphasized: “Well, obviously that’s something that will ultimately be part of any negotiation.”
https://tass.com/world/1899833
The question of the lifting of sanctions could be a deal-breaker. The EU’s now preparing its 16th sanctions package.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/eu-propose-ban-russian-aluminium-imports-new-sanctions-package-eu-diplomats-say-2025-01-14/
The attitude of Berlin/Brussels/UK towards Russia is hardening rather than softening. Kallas’ position and Ben Wallace’s recent article are two examples of that.
https://www.politico.eu/article/kaja-kallas-european-parliament-hearing-foreign-policy-diplomacy-estonia/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/14/we-must-put-russia-in-a-prison-and-build-the-walls-high/
Elsewhere Kallas states she still hopes for the break-up of the RF. Merz, the likely incoming Chancellor, and UvdL also both remain hawkish, Merz recently calling for deployment of Taurus in Ukraine and I haven’t seen him walking back on that. Macron, as ever, depends which day you take him but most of the time hawkish.
These are not indications that the EU would look favourably on a softening of sanctions, let alone lifting them all.
So the Americans themselves might be looking for negotiations with Russia. Could Trump take the Europeans with him if so?
Hahn, in the article linked to above, sets out three ways the conflict might end. Remnant Ukraine, or “Rump Ukraine” as I usually see it termed, ruled by a government installed by Russia. A peace settlement that leaves remnant Ukraine as an independent country but neutralised. Or no Ukraine left at all.
(“Although Russian puppet regime or Ukraine’s disappearance as an independent state are becoming more likely, peace talks between the future Trump administration and the Kremlin could produce an agreement that allows for an independent, rump and, crucially, neutral and largely military-denuded Ukraine.”)
https://gordonhahn.com/2025/01/11/the-potential-for-an-anti-western-ukrainian-turn-to-the-east/
The second end state (independent and neutral) would be by far the best and Hahn speculates on how it might be arrived at. It’s not going to be arrived at, whatever Trump decides, if the Europeans refuse to go along with it.
Looks as if neither Medvedev nor Patrushev are too hopeful that an independent but neutralised remnant Ukraine will be arrived at either.
Medvedev is usually dismissed in the West as a headbanger, ultra hawkish, or at least as a politician who was seen as Atlanticist before the SMO and is now trying to remove that reproach. He does, however, show more understanding than that of the Ukrainian problem as is shown part-way down here:-
https://karlof1.substack.com/p/dmitry-medvedev-on-national-identity
Even so, Medvedev doesn’t seem to see any solution to the problem other than Hahn’s third solution: no Ukraine left. There are plenty of statements from him calling for just that.
Patrushev, a heavyweight and not given to wild talk, concurs:-
“It is possible that in the coming year Ukraine will cease to exist altogether.”
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27651/5036217/
And for good measure he considers the problems of other Russian populations within the EU (my paragraphing):-
” The main priority for us is the protection and well-being of our citizens and compatriots around the world. If we talk about the international aspect, then discrimination against the Russian population in a number of countries, and of course, in the Baltics and Moldova, must be stopped.
“The authorities of these states continue to lead themselves into the deepest crisis with ill-considered actions and at the same time stubbornly twist the Russophobic hurdy-gurdy. The energy crisis is especially indicative, the blame for which lies 100 percent with the Moldovan authorities, obediently carrying out orders from Brussels to reduce gas dependence on Russia.
“Therefore, Chisinau should not deceive itself or its people. The Moldovan authorities should not look for enemies inside the country or in Transnistria, but admit their mistakes and begin to correct the situation.”
The Russian position, even the way the Russians perceive the conflict, is so dramatically different from how the conflict’s usually seen in the West. What the Russians see as problems to be resolved we see as propaganda points to be ignored.
There’s a hope that Trump may be able, if imperfectly, to bridge that gap. I just don’t see the Europeans as similarly able. The question of the lifting of sanctions mentioned by Putin in his June speech linked to above could be the issue that splits the Americans and the Europeans and renders a workable solution to the conflict unlikely. Hope I’m wrong, and hope that Trump will be able to find a way past the impasse.
EO,
I thought the sanctions were having little if any effect on Russia. Putin’s and Lavrov’s words say otherwise. They are desperate to end the sanctions. Will they get lifted? I’m sure most if not all will end when there finally is a solution in which Ukraine maintains her freedom. Rubio is right. The sanctions must be part of the negotiations to end the conflict.
If Putin is truly worried about the Russian diaspora, he should be encouraging them to come home. Russia is going to need more Russians if it is to remain Russia in the future.
TTG – that’s exactly what I’ve been wondering! If the sanctions are such a tonic to the Russian economy, why insist on them being lifted? Three reasons, maybe.
The first is a reason derived directly from that failed Brexit I often grouch about. It would have been enormously beneficial to the UK economy had we in the UK been forced to produce more of our own industrial goods as we used to. An economy such as ours, so heavily weighted towards services and dependent for its very survival on basic industrial imports from outside, is not a sound economy whatever the Treasury economic experts may claim. Not even a safe economy in defence terms. Leaves us way too vulnerable to outside pressure.
But a transformation like that can’t be done in a day. That would be too short and sharp a shock, like forcing a grossly unfit man to run a marathon. Dr North, the Brexit expert, therefore recommended a slow exit lasting some 10 to 20 years. That would give time for the gradual return to health.
There’s no doubt the Russians no longer want to be dependent on Europe for goods they could perfectly well make themselves. Our divorce is I think final. But as the UK should have done for Brexit – had that ever happened – they might prefer to avoid too short and sharp a shock.
The second reason is that the sanctions, particularly the secondary sanctions, interfere with trade with and between the BRICS countries.
The third reason is one that I bet is in the minds of the more hawkish Russians. Since Istanbul the only logical outcome of the SMO is unconditional Kiev capitulation. Borrell did say that this war would be decided on the battlefield. I think, now the SMO’s ballooned to such an extent, that’s how many Russians would like it, and an end to all the talking.
If one may compare the SMO with the so much more limited military operation we undertook in the Falklands, there was a similar hardening of mood there. Before the war started few were much bothered about the Falklands. There could have been any number of possible solutions arrived at with the Argentinians. After we’d had to exert ourselves, and particularly after we’d taken casualties, there were few of us who would have accepted anything other than unconditional surrender. Wars, large or small, do have their own momentum and in the case of the SMO, settlements that could well have been reached earlier, and suited both sides better, are now out of reach.
But Putin’s not one of the more hawkish Russians so maybe he’ll find a bit of room to give Trump the way out Trump’s looking for.
I submitted that last comment to “b’s” site after submitting it to yours and as usual there were some most informative responses. General verdict – if the Euros want to sulk in the corner, to hell with them.
To an extent. I’m a Euro too, as are many of my friends and relatives dotted around all over the place and I’d rather we didn’t get it in the neck. But for some others it’ll be only too well-deserved…
… In the years to come there’ll be a dishevelled figure, tie awry and shoes lacking their old gloss, wandering around the seedier establishments in Brussels. Brussels being, you understand, where an inordinate number of the Euro-duds end up and plenty of ours too. He’ll be saying for the hundredth time ” You don’t understand! I coulda had class! I coulda been a contender!” and some bored hooker at the bar will be replying for the hundredth time, absent-mindedly but consolingly, “Course you could, Olaf, course you could.”
TTG – a sour postscript. Hope not too sour. Starmer.
Recently, long after the practice had fallen out of use in Washington, one of the first acts of Starmer’s premiership was to have Zelensky given a standing ovation in the cabinet meeting in Downing Street. Now off to Kiev, to sign a treaty that will last a hundred years.
At first sight it makes as much sense, that hundred year treaty with Kiev, as dreaming of the thousand year Reich even as Zhukov and Konev were eying up Berlin; but the Euros are thinking ahead. They’re going to need the colours firmly nailed to the mast as they take us into Cold War II.
That European Cold War II is all that’s going to remain of the Great Ukrainian Venture. Merkel, world champion fence sitter, could never make up her mind whether it was better to trade with Russia or loot it. Under Scholz looting won out and fitted in well with the European dream: becoming a world power, on a par with the US and China. “Projecting the power of a continent” as I saw it put, long ago, in a Brussels policy paper. A seat at the big table at last, and no more jibes about telephone numbers from such as Kissinger.
And the Washington neocons at their peak, as set as the Europeans on the venture and with the clout to drive the White Tiger this time through to victory.
All those dreams, and those dreams all failing. Nothing left of them now but Go long Rheinmetall. The Eurostars – Scholz, Merz, UvdL, Borrell, Macron, Johnson, Starmer, hosts upon hosts of them, all dropping back to nowheresville. All muttering vengefully, ” We coulda been contenders.” The seat at the big table on Uncle Sam’s dime didn’t come off.
Serve ’em right. And serve us Europeans right too, I’m afraid, for cheering it on so fervently. My abiding memory of the whole will be of the war fever that swept our Europe in 2022. Those blue and yellow flags, the flag of our betrayed proxies, flying from English church towers. The wrecked Russian tank placed triumphantly outside the Russian Embassy in Berlin. I had not guessed our continent could contain that much of hate. It was a lovely war, for most of us, that war. Who, after all, could pass up the thrill of a war that only the proxies had to die in?