Nabeel Khoury, a former US diplomat in Yemen, said it is a “very critical battle”. “It looks like both sides would like to be in a stronger bargaining position in anticipated peace talks,” Khoury told Al Jazeera. “The problem of course is that these short-term gains could actually derail the new peace process launched by the new US administration.”
The Saudi-led coalition backing the internationally recognised government launched more than 12 air raids in support of government forces, according to the Houthi-run Al Masirah TV channel. More than 60 fighters were killed in fighting in Marib on Friday, the bloodiest day since the start of the offensive on February 8. The government meanwhile accused the Houthis of firing 10 ballistic missiles on Friday night on Marib city, the official Saba news agency reported, with no reports of casualties. On Saturday, multiple blasts shook the Saudi capital Riyadh, with state television saying the Saudi-led coalition had thwarted a “Houthi ballistic missile attack”. (Al Jazeera)
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Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the missile and drone strikes that targeted Saudi Arabia on Sunday. The Saudi-led coalition said it had thwarted the Iran-backed rebels attack. Houthi spokesman said it had deployed ballistic missile and nine drones in the Saudi capital and six drones at military sites in Abha and Khamis Mushait.
“With the help of God almighty, the drone and artillery forces have conducted a joint military operation against Saudi Arabia. The operation, called ‘the fifth balanced deterrence’, was conducted by a Zulfiqar ballistic missile and 15 drones, 9 of which are Samad 3 drones that hit sensitive targets in the Saudi enemy’s capital, Riyadh. And 6 more Qasef-2k drones, which targeted military locations in Abha and Khamis Mushait,” Yahya Saria Houthi military spokesman said. (WION)
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MARIB, March 01 (YPA) – Saudi-led coalition forces moved their joint operations room from the Yemeni city of Marib to ‘Al-Wadeah’ crossing at the border with Saudi Arabia, local sources reported on Monday. The coalition forces have completed the transfer of all the equipment of the so-called “joint operations room” from Marib towards the Al-Wadeah crossing, within the border strip of the Kingdom, the sources said. The sources confirmed that Brigadier General Nasser Al-Thibani, commander of the so-called joint operations room, began his work in the new headquarters at Al-Wadeah crossing. Al-Thibani explained that the transfer of the joint operations room was based on “American advice” to preserve whom he described as “brothers in the coalition.”
Last Saturday, Al-Thibani left the city of Marib with all his family members, heading for Sayoun city in Hadramout province, as part of a series of large escapes of military leaders from the city after Sanaa forces approached it. (YPA Agency)
Comment: Here it is. All in one place. A selection of articles from multiple sources corroborating what is likely a true reading of the situation on the ground. In spite of widespread starvation and rampant disease, the Houthis have managed to do well militarily. What we see here is not just a simple ground attack towards the next logical target by simple tribesmen, but a well thought out and executed coordinated air and ground offensive by a competent military force. The air component was substantial and surely keeps the Saudis worried about things other than Marib. The Houthi ground offensive is supported by missile fire. Saudi coalition force commanders are pulling their families out of Marib. They know what’s coming. These Houthis are more than tough fighters. They are strategic thinkers.
The UAE has already decided this Yemeni adventure is not worth the price. They’re pulled out and are reducing support for their proxies. They’re taking Socotra as a consolation prize. The Biden administration’s shift in policy is putting a kink in the Saudi’s ability to wage offensive war. Italy has made the same calculation. We need to push others like Canada to cut off the supply of offensive weaponry to the Saudis. And we need to start flowing humanitarian aid to the people of Yemen. If the Saudis interfere with that aid, blow their ships out of the water and their planes out of the sky. Then let the Yemenis sort it out amongst themselves.
Colonel Lang knows these people well. I was just the regional desk officer for Yemen, but that still means I know them better than most Americans. I admire them. You sell them short at your own risk as the Emirates now know and the Saudis are finding out. As the Colonel remarked to me, “We should be with them, you and I.” DOL
TTG
https://www.pri.org/stories/2021-02-19/yemens-most-stable-city-threatened-houthi-takeover
http://en.ypagency.net/212097/
What is the reaction in Saudi by the leadership there regarding their military performance in Yemen and the Houti’s ability to target their cities with ballistic and cruise missiles?
The Saudi royals have to keep their people content. They can afford to do that. Saudi losses in Yemen could be covered over. The missile and drone strikes are another matter. That will eat away at the contentment bought with royal wealth. Without that, the royals need to keep their people cowed. That’s a lot harder than just keeping them content.
DOL is De Oppresso Liber, the motto of Special Forces. I always thought it best translated as the imperative “Liberate from Oppression” although I’ve usually seen it translated as “Free the Oppressed.” Neither is correct Latin. The phrase itself may not be correct Latin. Steven Willett could give us a proper readout on this.
Those of us who worked with irregular forces often develop an affinity for those irregulars. I and several others were enthusiastic about the Libyan rebels overthrowing Qadaffi. I especially cheered for the Berber tribesmen of the Nafusa Mountains. We clearly underestimated the influence of the Islamic jihadis. I expected chaos, but not to the extent that occurred. I still think they’ll work it out. I’m also sure a lot of Libyans do think it was all worth it.
To avoid something like that happening in Saudi Arabia, I don’t want the royal family to be overthrown. What would come after the royals is bound to be much worse. A full blown Islamic Caliphate with the wealth of Saudi Arabia would be a far greater danger to the entire region, including Yemen. To prevent that, I’d like to see the power of the royal family crippled, but not destroyed.
Yemen is a humanitarian disaster. That disaster is a direct result of Saudi intervention. I don’t apologize for worrying about the Yemenis and wanting the Saudi intervention to end.
TTG,
We Turks have a long history with Yemen, from the 16th century on, with very limited success. Here is a reasonable summary:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni%E2%80%93Ottoman_conflicts
There is an elegy commemorating our dead in the last campaign :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemen_T%C3%BCrk%C3%BCs%C3%BC
The translation lacks the poignancy of the original, but conveys the general idea. It is still performed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLbGS09WN5Q&list=RDvLbGS09WN5Q&start_radio=1
Others tried to take over Yemen; they did not fare much better in the long run:
https://www.thefreelibrary.com/The+Egyptian-Yemen+War+%281962-67%29%3a+Egyptian+perspectives+on+Guerrilla…-a0116585276
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aden_Emergency
The colonel and several others predicted here long ago that the Houthis would hand the KSA and its allies their collective posteriors. The place is similar to Afghanistan in many ways.
Finally re: Yemen is a humanitarian disaster. That disaster is a direct result of Saudi intervention
Quite a few would not consider the Yemen gambit just a KSA adventure. There are many irons in this fire-all of the usual suspects are complicit- and the stakes are reasonably high. I am sure you know all about them. A few links for those who might not:
https://www.cato.org/commentary/joe-bidens-foreign-policy-dream-team-disappointing
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/06/britain-slaughter-yemen-planes-bombs-politicians-media
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6843469/Five-British-Special-Forces-troops-wounded-Yemen-advising-Saudi-Arabia-campaign.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-france-arms-idUSKCN1RR1D3
Things are heating up in MENA. Interesting times await. Mayhap some will get a better hand next deal.
Ishmael Zechariah
Although Blinken took the Houthis off the terror list, yesterday he called on them to halt the advance on Marib. He also said they should cease their drone and missile attacks against KSA.
https://thearabweekly.com/blinken-calls-yemens-houthis-halt-offensive-marib
Great commentary and analysis as usual dear TTG.
I would like to raise a few points with regards to the situation in Yemen:
*The recent U.S. de-listing of Ansarallah as a terror organization does not apply to the leadership, i.e. the top brass. I cannot find the piece in which this situation was explained, but I am pretty sure the Houthi’s are technically still designated as “terror organization” under the U.S. law. This is most likely to ensure that the much-needed UN aid will be reached the devastated Yemeni population via the Houth-controlled Al Hudaydah port in the south.
*The Biden admin so far, despite Joe’s pledge to hold MbS accountable for Khashoggi slaughter who btw was a well-connected Muslim Brotherhood part-time spy/journalist, and the humanitarian disaster in Yemen has been more or less continuing the Trump admin policies vis-a-vis Yemen. However, one very important development in the past few days has been the recent de-classification of the Khashoggi files that ‘enabled’ the U.S. to sanction 76 individuals who were part of the murder plot and comprise what is known as the “Rapid Intervention Force”, an extraterritorial special forces controlled solely by MbS to target/silence foreign opposition forces. Note the section in the New York Times article below that explains this (1):
In an effort to signal wider action against countries and officials who reach beyond their borders to repress dissent, Mr. Blinken is also adding a category of sanctions, a newly named “Khashoggi ban,” to restrict visas to anyone determined to be participating in state-sponsored efforts to harass, detain or harm dissidents and journalists around the world. In a statement, Mr. Blinken said 76 Saudis would be designated in the first tranche.
That review, officials said, would be part of the annual State Department human rights report. It is part of an effort, officials said, to create a new category of human rights abuses — one called “extraterritorial repression,” a growing issue as Russia, China and even allies like Turkey try to silence critics who are living in Europe, the United States or other free societies.
While the initial bans will apply to Saudis, officials said they would quickly be used around the world.
A few hours after the release of the report and the new sanctions, the Saudi government issued a blistering response. “The kingdom of Saudi Arabia completely rejects the negative, false and unacceptable assessment in the report pertaining to the kingdom’s leadership, and notes that the report contained inaccurate information and conclusions,” it wrote.
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This is very significant in the sense that, a) it would provide some type of cover/safety to the newly-formed political opposition forces to the KSA in London and Paris to launch their activism in case their services are needed, and b) it could be used to pressure the Saudis to officially join the Abrahamic accord and recognize Israel and formalize relations with it.
*The Houthi fighters not only managed to resist the Saudi-led coalition, drive them out and capture territories (in some cases from the Saudis too), but also bleed the Saudi economy heavily ,especially during the time of low oil demand and rising budget deficits.
Nevertheless, the skeptic in me tells me that the current leadership in Saudi Arabia in fact does not at all mind to ‘divert’ resources in its southern border, buy billions worth of military equipment from the West and hire mercenaries and create some sort of the ongoing security problem in Yemen, in order to resist internal and external pressure to transition to a more humane and post-medieval society and allocate those natural riches for the betterment of the Saudi citizens.