Western Media talk knowledgeably about a “Russian Build Up on the Border with Ukraine”. These stories are often accompanied by one of two satellite images which purport to show evidence of the same.
The first of these, as used by Politico, correctly identifies the location of this vehicle park as Yelnya. However the image is cropped so you cannot see the extensive barracks and infrastructure which identify this as a permanent military base constructed no later than 2016. Furthermore Politico defines “near” the Ukraine border as within 150 miles for that is Yelnyas distance from it.
https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/f4d9130/2147483647/resize/1920x/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2Fc4%2Fbf%2F1f49c4ba480d906066c625786a2b%2F211101-sattelite1-773.jpg
The second image used is located at Soloti – again the image is cropped so the extensive permanent barracks and infrastructure are excluded. This base is about 30km from the Ukraine border but it has been there since 2005!
https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.net.au/b281fc5523ef4a75c8ee7c7b834e1602?impolicy=wcms_crop_resize&cropH=1280&cropW=1920&xPos=0&yPos=0&width=862&height=575
Details of the formations based at these locations are available here:
https://www.gfsis.org/maps/russian-military-forces
I have not included details of the sizes of the ammunition dumps that would be required to support any “invasion” of Ukraine. They would stick out a mile but are invisible today.
IMO, the “Russian Build Up” story is rubbish.
And it seems the germans agree with you, they have declined a last minute meeting with Biden, denied their airzone to British military transferring weapons to Ukraine, and blocked transfers of German made weapons from Estonia to Ukraine. Italy and France are singing a similar tune
On the contrary, Spain has run to send two ships to the Black Sea scenarion plus offering itself a preferential partner in the case of a military stand off with Russia.
One wonders why Spain did not send its ships to the Gibraltar Straight once West Sahara was given up to Morocco by the Trump adminsitrayion, then a move not reversed by the Biden adminsitration, plus when Morocco menaced with appropiating the North African cities of Ceuta and Melilla, plus continously trying to surpass the territorial waters of Canary Islands…
One would say this Spanish administration has an strange way and places where it chose to enforce its sovereignty….
Taking into account that Spain is perhaps the most vaccinated country in the whole EU and Europe, plus where the least number of side effects of the gene therapies are being acknowledged and thus registered, and in the middle of this stance with regard the Ukraine border conflict, Spanish people would do well in wondering whose interests their government serves really…
Although, taking into account all the pointed above, preciselly one of the EU governmetns who has most to cover related to the pandemic and the mismanagement of it and EU “Recovery” funds, and so, most interested in increasing the signal ratio noise to distract attention where it is due, that is proper accountability of the huge loses, accounting for the hugest in the world, of this “plandemic” and going on..
One would say that Spain, a puppet regime already time ago, is now at the mercy of the best bidder…
“denied their airzone to British military transferring weapons to Ukraine”
We’ll never know – British didn’t even ask Germany so another British IO to make Germany look isolated on aid to Ukraine.
walrus
Throughout this “crisis” I have insisted that it is all BS motivated by warmongers on the left and right who have not fought anyone, or if they have did not learn to dread a renewal of the experience. I told Mulshine that the pics are a dead giveaway. You do not prepare to attack from motor pools.
pl,
An attack from the motor pools was one of the plans within the GSFG in the 80s. Our side called it the bolt from the blue scenario. I knew several former Russian NCOs from the GSFG who confirmed that they practiced no notice alerts moving straight from the barracks/motor pools to the attack within hours. Keeping the vehicles in motor pools also allows maintenance to maintain a high state of readiness over a period of weeks. Arraying those vehicles in battle formation or even in assembly areas over many weeks does not help readiness.
However, I do believe this buildup of Russian forces, done as openly as it has been done, is meant to intimidate and demoralize, not roll across the border. There are so many more appealing options to get a Moscow friendly government installed in Kyiv.
TTG
Well, there it is, exposed as an ignoramus again.
I would suggest that that is evidence that you are NOT planning to attack. It’s evidence that you expect to have to respond to a surprise attack by the other guy.
Patrick,
I agree. The troop movements are a deliberately loud demonstration. Do you think the Ukrainian military is in any shape to attack Russian territory. Granted, they’ve come a long way from the 6,000 effectives left in 2014, but they are in no position to militarily threaten Russian territory. If NATO or the US put ground and/or air missile forces in Ukraine, it would be a different story. That would be an unnecessary provocation.
My point is that the disposition of forces in motor pools and barracks does not preclude an attack from those positions. Rocket forces are most likely well within range of their targets and any attack from the motor pools would be accompanied by airborne attacks if it came to that. But I doubt Putin intends for it to come to that.
TTG, I fail to understand where the Logistics “Tail” to support a Russian invasion of Ukraine might be hidden.
I have never been involved in staff work but from what I’ve read I believe millions (literally millions) of litres of diesel fuel would be needed by the Russians and thousands of tonnes of ammunition, mainly artillery.
I would imagine that this stuff would be easy to spot, or do the Russians carry credit cards for Exxon and ammo r us?
walrus
Have been thinking over TTG’s reminiscence of Soviet “plans” for an invasion of NATO straight from garrison positions. I imagine that this was not seriously proposed. Your logistics point is well taken. The Soviets’ actual plan was to attack in three massive echelons separated by hundreds of kilometers at the start. The first would be 1st Guards Tank Army, 3rd Shock Army and another the name of which I do not recall. The second echelon would be remaining Soviet forces in Germany and Poland and the third allied Warsaw Pact forces. The idea was that each echelon would attack for ten days or until unable to make further ground to the west. Then the next echelon would pass through them and continue, etc. The basic NATO response was to fight long enough and hard enough with conventional forces to make the possibility of a nuclear escalation plausible when we were eventually defeated. I have been in the field with an army group, albeit a 3rd World army group, conducting large scale offensive operations and from personal observations maintain that GSFG could not have “pulled off” a campaign against NATO straight from garrison positions.
pl and Walrus,
One development that came out of this bolt from the blue talk and exercises was the the self-contained operational maneuver group and increasing emphasis on maneuver warfare as a means to win conventionally rather than resigning themselves to the inevitability of nuclear warfare. It was also a break from the thinking of three or more massive strategic echelons attempting to batter their way to the Rhine.
One of the clearest recent examples of this change in mindset was the 1999 Pristina Dash when 200 or so VDV troops in 30 BTR-80s made a no notice, unsupported dash to the Pristina Airport. Not exactly an OMG, but that rapid and bold maneuver changed the geo-strategic picture in the Balkans . Russian maneuver units are now far more capable of carrying out several surprise 50-100 mile dashes into Ukraine from their present locations, especially with the aid of Spetznaz, VDV and precision long range fires. I doubt they’ed do it, but the capability is there.
The GSFG consisted of 5 tank and combined armies in the 80s. I knew the 3rd Shock Army was renamed, but I did not realize that it became the 3rd Red Banner Army in 1954. Even in the 80s, the 3rd Shock Army was foremost in my mind for some reason. I guess I just found that name so impressive.
TTG
OK. That would qualify as a “minor incursion.” Do you think the Russians intend to do that?
pl,
No, I don’t think the Russians have any intention to do that, but I believe they have the capability to do so. I haven’t thought Russia would roll across Ukraine since 2014 after they took Crimea. It would have been a cakewalk then to roll in, destroy the nazi battalions and roll out.
Having said that, I’m sure the thought has crossed Putin’s mind to seize just enough of southeast Ukraine either for themselves or the Novorossiya rebels to get the North Crimea Canal flowing again. The loss of that fresh water has been a disaster for Crimean agriculture and a drain on Moscow’s economy.
TTG,
Seeing the Russians as evil every single time! This is your Lithuanian genes speaking. Try to get over it.
On the other hand, we continue to see the Russia hate by the hosts of Ukrainian genes in Blinken and Nudelman. Both of them, who control the US foreign policy had Ukrainian grandparents.
Want a Russia hater? Look for Eastern European heritage. Hate muddles their brains when it comes to Russia – can’t think straight
Thank you for your sanity on this issue Walrus; it is a great pity that the mainstream press in the US and Europe are not coming to same conclusion, instead of following Blinken et al like the children of Hamelin. At least the German intelligence service, the BND, seems to. have worked this one out and no doubt for this reason that Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his chief of staff Wolfgang Schmidt have ceased to play ball with the US on the issue of Ukraine in recent weeks, refusing a meeting a Biden and objecting to arms deliveries to the Ukraine. Blinken has tied himself up in knots over the whole issue of US-Russia relations – he and his entire US team (Nuland, Sullivan et al) are complete amateurs, so much so that they should all be replaced
Any reason Russia would not want to protect its own borders from refugee floods, in the even Ukraine implodes under its own corruptions and the Russia-speaking Ukrainians start looking for a safe harbor?
Was sending more US troops to our southern border and act of aggression against Mexico and a sign of a pending invasion? Or just common good sense.
MSM is running wild on this one, and looks like Five Eyes is now only too willing to help – what sort of quid pro quos, or out and out extortion threats, do the Five Eyes operate under?
2020 – Covid threat
2022 – Ukraine threat
Political brinksmanship for partisan gain. Covid worked. So why not another disease like Ukraine, plus they do hold the goods on Hunter Biden and possibly the Crowdstrike DNC breach files.
What were Democrats trying to hide when they impeached Trump over his innocuous Ukraine phone call?
Why do US oligarchs want a war with Russia over Ukraine? That’s the question we should ask? How does it benefit them? Or is this just the next “emergency” since the covidian emergency is rapidly running out of gas?
Harald Malmgren on the rise of oligarchs mimicking the Soviets and CCP.
https://twitter.com/alwayslearni/status/1484934161022468099?s=21
More than covid is running out of gas to be used for Democrat political deflection, according to a Gateway Pundit article, the latest Durham Report findings are refueling the flames of Russia-gate with new and well-documented detail. Including the exposure of very key officials lying under oath . Dangling loose ends are finally getting gathering into a more coherent narrative.
Current claims- in fact there was no predicate for the original Trump-Russia investigation, despite the Horowitz IG conclusions that missed important staring dates, and clearly it was the phony Clinton dossier on Trump that triggered the entire debacle, even though there were official claims to the contrary; not just the unconfirmed and distorted drunken bar conversation between Australian Ambassador Downer and Papadapolus.
Lies about the dossier origins and import along with conflicted investigation origin dates now clearly point to lying under oath to create a well-documented including a new trail of evidence embracing “top officials”.
According to the Gateway Pundit article – if this is a dam ready to burst, it could also be time for Biden to ….wag the dog ….. hey, look over here! And for Schiff for Brains to scream Jan 6 Trump sedition even louder.
Gateway Pundit story that may be triggering the Biden’s wagging the dog actions in Ukraine?
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/01/durham-vs-horowitz-tension-truth-consequences-grips-fbis-trump-russia-reckoning/
For those following the Russiagate story from the beginning, many names and events will be very familiar – finally getting down to the mysterious and intentionally disappeared Joseph Mifsud’s role in this unraveling story. Some early stories even wrote him off for dead – nothing to see here folks, move along.
What did they know, and more importantly what they didn’t know that got conflated once the demand for reverse engineering the deep state Trump spying plot was critical in the last days of the Obama administration …after Trump actually won. The scramble for a cover-up story is finally getting uncovered.
https://twitter.com/cernovich/status/1485104450922446853?s=21
I would add Mike Pompeo, Victoria Nuland, Max Boot, David Frum and the rest of the neocon cast who’ve been hysterical about the “imminent” invasion to join up at the front lines. I suppose the Brit neocons should also join them. Show us your courage and military prowess and lead from the front. Not write screeds in your pajamas.
More of a Ziocon collection you have there, if one bothers to scratches the surface that is….
Cheers M
CCP Winter Olympics ends Feb 20th. Is Russia really going to one up Xi and take his thunder…meh. Media sure is hyping this thing up though. More so than Eddie the Eagle back in the day. Worthless skier with no shot at gold but had everyone on the edge of our seats hoping not to see him crash and burn but also hoping to see him crash and burn.
Walrus,I am,a fellow countryman and I think you are missing the point.This is not a build up of Russian forces for invasion but an attempt to prevent a civil war that could spread into neighbouring countries.
Insurrection is the new hybrid.
In my opinion January 6 was a warning to all. From texas to whitehall
Insurrection. SMH let’s hope future insurrectionists remember to bring their weapons next time they want to pose some sort of existential threat to the duly elected govt…
Ukraine is just a side show to distract from a 33% approval rating that is the Biden admin. Time to (no pun intended) rally the troops and get ready for the mid terms, where racists hidden behind every tree isn’t scaring anyone,esp after a year where all those predicted white nationalist attacks failed to materialize after Jan 6th.
mcohen,
“January 6 was a warning to all”
What warning? That the most heavily armed civilization in human history would stage an ‘insurrection’ with zero firearms or success, or that it would be another false operation mounted by the nation’s own federal police forces, with accompanying incompetence, to drive a narrative to aid one political party in the retention of power?
Walrus
BTW, this blog is now called Tutcopolier.com.
mcohen
I thought 1/6 had been upgraded to an attempted coup, no?
January 6th was a warning alright – a warning that Reichstag fires are not just useful for demonizing the enemies of National Socialism.
Also good for toasting marshmallows. This from the guardian uk
“Johnson will also have raised eyebrows in European capitals with his announcement that he was setting up calls with G7 leaders to form a sanctions coalition that would hit “Putin-supporting oligarchs”.
His announcement came on the day Transparency International released new figures showing the amount of Russian money in London property is higher than previously thought – £1.5bn”
Them ollie gravies are fanny the flames.again
https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/1485241734925897728?s=21
I believe this is the Crowdstrike guy. Notice the circular nature of amplification. Media + think-tanks + government officials both anonymous and named. Exact same technique used laundering Hillary’s fantasy through Chris Steele’s British intelligence imprimatur and Crowdstrike stating that the exfiltration of DNC documents matched Russian intelligence. All a big hoax to launch Mueller and take down Trump.
Why are the usual cast of characters amping up the propaganda? What’s in it for the Party of Davos?
S.A. Karaganov (chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, one of Russia’s premier security think tanks): “And the seizure of Ukraine, I am sure, is not included in our military plans. If only for the reason that capturing a country that is castrated economically, morally and intellectually, a country with a destroyed infrastructure and an embittered population is the worst-case scenario. The worst thing America can do for us is to give us Ukraine in the form to which they brought it.” http://karaganov.ru/publications/589.
I’ll take this assessment over the Blinken-Nudelman scaremongering.
Sweden is also preparing !