Kaliningrad faces new isolation within Europe as the Baltic States have opted for the European electricity grid over Russia’s. When the Soviets won Königsberg in 1946, the fortress-like slice of land between Poland and Lithuania was their bulwark in the Baltic Sea. Today, the ever more isolated exclave hosts nuclear-capable Iskander missiles and much of the Russian Baltic fleet. Following Moscow’s war on Ukraine, the EU started restricting overland access to the encircled piece of Russian territory. In response, the Kremlin said Kaliningrad “will always be” the country’s outpost in the Baltic.
Until now, the exclave has remained connected to the electricity grid controlled by Moscow. But from 7 to 9 February, the Baltics will transition away from the Russian power grid and, in doing so, they will take the nuclear-armed exclave out of the mega-grid controlled by the Kremlin. “After Baltic Power System synchronisation with Continental Europe, Kaliningrad area will operate in the island mode,” said Lithuanian grid operator Litgrid, who is in charge of the grid cut alongside their Baltic counterparts.
Energy islands – grids without external connections – are rare in Europe. Such networks are more challenging to operate, as they cannot rely on cross-border flows to balance power supply and demand variations.
On 8 February, the Baltics will “switch off all the power connections to Russia and Belarus… and these lines will be dismantled,” the Litgrid spokesperson told Euractiv. “Russia has not welcomed this transition,” said Susanne Nies, an energy expert at the Helmholtz Zentrum in Berlin, adding that Moscow had “employed various tactics” to disrupt the divorce process, ranging from cyberattacks to disinformation campaigns about rising energy bills. She and other experts in the region fear that the Baltics’ grid divorce could be overshadowed by Russian sabre-rattling. “Russia may also claim that Kaliningrad, its exclave and former Königsberg, is at risk,” said Maciej Jakubik, European programme coordinator at Polish think-tank Forum Energii.
While the grid divorce will further isolate the region, “this situation has been anticipated and discussed for over a decade, and island tests conducted since 2019 have proven successful,” he added. Litgrid confirmed to Euractiv that Kaliningrad had tested its ability to run a stable grid by itself annually “for quite some time now.” However, the exclave is not actually at risk, Nies says, citing its four power plants: “One coal-fired and three gas fueled.” Gas supply for the plants is secured in three ways: a floating LNG terminal, a pipeline to Belarus, and an expanded gas storage of 0.8 billion cubic metres. “The resources ensure the necessary gas supply for power generation,” explained Nies.
The Balts are already preparing for Russian pushback. “In response to recent incidents, Lithuania and Poland have enhanced the protection of the [cross-border power cable] LitPol Link,” said Jakubik, which means surveillance, physical enhancement and increased coordination. “All countries have also increased their cybersecurity services,” he added. The end will all be worth it, however, says Nies: “This is a historic leap toward energy security,” which will “reinforce the broader vision of a secure, interconnected, and resilient European energy market.”
Comment: In the grand scheme of things, this is not that big a story. But it does mark a significant step in the rebuilding of the new Iron Curtain. And judging by the Eurelectric link below, there was a lot to the process besides cutting some transmission lines. The next step will be converting the Baltic rail lines to European standard from the wider Soviet gauge. That will make the Baltic countries truly part of Europe.
As the article states, Kaliningrad is not in any dire trouble. I do wonder how long that pipeline from Belarus to Kaliningrad will stay operational. My guess is that there is an existing contract similar to the gas pipeline transit contracts between Russia and Ukraine. Once the contract is up, the gas will stop flowing through the pipeline. The same will probably happen to the existing rail line to Kaliningrad. Then Kaliningrad will become a true island.
https://www.eurelectric.org/in-detail/grid-synchronisation-and-energy-security-the-baltics-case/
TTG do you get messages sent over the blog’s contact?
Anyway, don’t post my comment on the Trump Gaza thread, seems I deleted most of it while editing. As sent it makes no sense, I realized when it showed up.
LeaNder,
I received three or four versions of that comment. When I went into edit mode, more of what you wrote appeared. I was able to make sense of it with some editing and deleted the rest. If I didn’t catch the gist of what you tried to say, let me know.
BTW, I don’t see any messages going to blog contact.
Hmm, thanks for your trying to do your best. A fast glance tells me it’s close to the output of my meandering mind. I wasn’t really worth preservation other then letting Leith know I really enjoyed his aka for VD especially in our present context.
Leith, I suffered from heavy ‘postponerity’ coupled with escapism and was all over the US web plus X, I doubt I would find it again. It was definitively better than anything that shows up if you deliberately search for labels. 😉
The rail gauge conversion is a generational project. The construction phase started late for the brand new 1.435m gauge line Suwalki – Tallinn with a total of 900 km rail (Rail Baltica: https://www.railbaltica.org), it’s now at 15% though was planned since 2010. Connection to the Russian gauge will be made in Kaunas.
If NATO does not make Putin pay for Ukraine, Narva may be next. It has a fairly large Russian speaking population. Of course, he would not stop there. This is why the Baltic area is heating up with increased NATO activity. Kaliningrad can be bothered without much happening. Any traffic in or out can be “inspected” and delayed. Russia is facing resistance by a thousand cuts and they are accumulating and impacting Russia.
Lars – yes, Kaliningrad could be a good pressure point as are the residual Russian populations in two of the Baltics. One of the deeper of the “thousand cuts”, if handled right.
Unfortunately the military reality is that the Russians could establish a Suwalki corridor tomorrow if they chose. Solve any problems that way. That’s according to General Kujat a little while ago. Kujat’s not flying solo, by the way. He represents a solid body of opinion in the German establishment, particularly of course the German military establishment. When he talks we listen. He mentioned that NATO forces were entirely inadequate up there and I don’t believe the position has changed much for the better since.
And the teeth of the NATO forces are, as ever, provided by the US. Not so much boots on the ground – the Americans are short of those and pre-positioned bases and all the rest of it – as the threat of nuclear should NATO forces be attacked on NATO territory. That’s Europe’s defence in general, that threat of American nuclear: for reasons not worth going into here the French and British nuclear arsenals are no effective deterrent against Russia.
So whether the Europeans can make a nuisance of themselves using Kaliningrad as a pressure point depends on the Americans. That in turn depends on which way the cat jumps in Washington. If Trump’s much heralded new foreign policy turns out to be merely a continuation of Biden’s with different PR, then it’s back to the old status quo. If it turns out to be a genuine fresh start then the Europeans are left bare-assed in the wind and the Russians could stroll into Warsaw or Berlin or wherever without so much as a by your leave.
Because the Europeans aren’t called the Europoodles for nothing. Without the Americans around and engaged they have no defence against Russia except the plain fact that the Russians are very much more interested in getting clear of Europe than invading it.
But that’s all very theoretical. Theoretical to the point of scarcely being worth examining. It would take an inordinate amount of provocation to get the Russians to move at all. It did in Ukraine. It would in the Baltics.
They might just cut supplies if the Europeans get too bothersome but I doubt they’d even want to do that. It’d look bad to their new Brics partners, cutting supplies, even to an unsatisfactory or hostile customer. So they’ll put up with the pinpricks – or the “cuts” as you term them – because it’s too much bother not to. That’s provided Putin and his team stay in power – there are more than a few hawks in the Russian establishment who would, by now, be quite happy to put the Europoodles back in their box, US or no, were Putin out of the way.
I do hope that oddball President of yours returns you to some sort of sanity in foreign policy. Biden poked the Bear a little too hard in the Donbass. That’s how he ended up with his FAFO war and got egg all over his face. You, as an American, don’t want your new President to end up with another FAFO debacle in the Baltics, surely?
……………………………..
As an Englishman I’d like nothing better than to get clear of the mess of spiteful grudges and tribal animosities that is now the modern European political scene. As an American, Lars, I’d have thought you’d feel much the same. You need a good talking to from a couple of no nonsense Americans who’ll put you back on the straight and narrow:–
https://youtu.be/lmpQIHf0WNk?t=554
3 minutes from 9.15.
EO,
Europe/NATO has over 500 modern attack aircraft without the US. That’s not counting Türkiye, either. That’s some sharp teeth ready to maul any attempted Russian invasion. Besides, Russian Armed Forces are still having trouble against Ukraine’s handful of older attack aircraft. They can’t even clear Ukrainian forces from Russian territory. Maybe they could launch an attack on the Suwalki Corridor, but they couldn’t hold it.
Macgregor has been predicting imminent Russian victory for three years. He’s still wrong. Many saw Russia must win because of their experiences in WWII. However those people forget that Ukraine endured the same if not worse experiences during WWII and went on to eventual victory.
In the last few weeks, Russia’s ability to conquer territory has been diminished substantially, but they are still suffering high casualties. It appears that their well is running dry.
TTG – by rights Kaliningrad ought to be Lithuanian, as ought a great chunk of the old East Prussia to its south. Russian presence there is very much an historical anomaly, just as the UK presence in Northern Ireland is an historical anomaly.
Or maybe Kaliningrad ought to be Polish. Or German. Just depends which period of history is taken as the base line.
Europe is riddled with such anomalies, perhaps few as glaring as this one. Sometimes they can be resolved by giving the land back to the obvious rightful owner, as we ought to do with Gibraltar. Sometimes they can be used as potential flash points, as the Germans used the Sudetenland in times past.
Kaliningrad is just such a handy flash point. As Lars says a good place to inflict one of the thousand cuts on Russia that we’re keen on inflicting.
If I promise LeaNder not to mention Barbarossa Scholz or the neocon pin-up girl, the entrancing Bellatrix LeBaerbock, might I be permitted a bit of a side-swerve here?
Ages ago I happened to see a small detachment of Irish soldiers who’d been detailed to cover a cash delivery to a local bank. I don’t think they were SF or anything fancy. Just regulars.
Tough looking bastards, and the way they sort of melted around the place, without orders, to cover this or that point, seemed to this non-professional eye to show they knew their business. These were the real deal, not just a bunch of bored squaddies loafing around the place.
They wouldn’t of course stand a chance if they came up against a much bigger army. God really is on the side of the big battalions and they’d have got scrunched by sheer weight of numbers.
Afterwards it’d be a different story. They’d be a real problem for any occupying force. The whole apparatus of secret police, informers, Intel people doing the spooky stuff, would have to be deployed to keep the place more or less in order. Do we think the Russians would want to go to all that trouble anywhere in Eastern Europe? And have to supply the subject populations with food and energy while they were about it?
It’s not even as if there were any great riches to be looted there. The entire region is more or less bust. Kept going only by subventions from richer countries that themselves are going downhill fast.
“The Russians are coming” is a myth. There’s nothing much here in Europe for them to come for. Their aim is to prevent the West attacking them. Also to prevent the US, the only significant military power in the West, from using Europe as a launch pad against them as the US has been doing since 1945.
“We have always been at war with Eastasia” is merely the politicians’ cry to keep us howling at the Russians instead of howling at the politicians themselves. Because those politicians, as Macgregor says in that clip, are not only venal but useless. The bloated ancien regime of Europe needs us to buy in to the forthcoming Cold War because that’s the only way it can preserve its hold.
And if we buy in to it enthusiastically enough, and do manage to inflict more of the “thousand cuts” that Lars celebrates above, the Russians don’t have to throw armies around all over the place. They merely have to cut Europe’s supplies. Do we think that if the Europeans somehow managed to blockade Kaliningrad effectively the Russians would continue to keep Europe going while we were doing it?
That’s where Scholz and Baerbock and UvdL, and Macron and the ambulatory cadaver Starmer (did you see Starmer in that mercifully brief clip Colonel Davis put up? You trying to tell me that thing’s alive?) go wrong. In their valiant crusade against the sinister Russians, they’re forgetting the sinister Russians can stop their rations any time they want to. Which is why I don’t think the Europoodles’ll use Kaliningrad as a flash point too much.
……………………….
Damn. I promised LeaNder I’d not mention Bellatrix and Barbarossa. But I had to! This is Europe, Minsk 2 land. It’s de riguer here to break promises soon as made. No self-respecting European would dream of doing otherwise. Sorry, LeaNder. At least I managed to avoid mentioning the fish.
At least one, possibly two, Russian undersea cables have been cut in the Baltic. Those undersea Rostelecom cables link the Russian colony of Kaliningrad with St Petersburg and skirt around Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lhorznmfgs2o
https://ukrainetoday.org/a-new-cable-has-broken-in-the-baltic-sea-but-this-time-it-is-russian/
So:
1] Did ‘Putin the Incompetent’ do it to himself while sending ghost ships dragging anchors to sabotage NATO cables?
2] Or did one of the Baltic countries decide turnabout is fair play?
3] Or did Ukraine’s crafty Kyrylo Budanov take matters in hand?
I’m betting on #1, but either #2 or #3 would be poetic justice.
So Kaliningrad has its own power generation stations of multiple types with multiple sources of fuel. The grid connections maintaining voltage and allow power transfers is cut. Voltage regulation at the end points are not discussed, nor the price to be paid to acquire/sell Baltic state electricity.
I foresee the same issue the French face after connecting their grid. The temptation to use state owned assets to make revenue by selling bulk wholesale power rather than provide reliable low cost electricity to their own citizens.
Did everyone miss USAID spending cuts? A lot of Ukraine’s cashflow is f’d now. Good luck with thinking this grid change will really affect what is happening there.
Per WAPO:
poor “independent” media.
https://archive.is/dIBai
Fred,
Elon Musk is calling for Radio Free Europe and Voice of America to be shut down:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/02/9/7497431/
Wow.
James,
The cold war ended in a couple generations ago.
Good move.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania : electricity price + 108 %.
Let’s them taste European way of life without cheap electricity !
That cost will certainly go up. But think of the virtue the elites gain!
When I arrived here in 1965, I heard a lot of Americans claiming that the Soviet Union was bad because they were communists. Me and most people in the Baltic area knew it was because they were Russians. We all had centuries of experience to rely on. Recent activities have only enforced that view. Then their empire imploded tionand some there are desperate to try to reconstitute their empire. Recent actions have also revealed that they don’t really have what it takes to succeed. The Second Industrial Revolution colonized much of the world not yet colonized, but in the Information Age, it is not nearly as easy anymore. What the US should focus on is that in many areas, China is moving ahead in areas important for our future. Russia is not, but allowing Putin to succeed will add to our problems and take away efforts to deal with the real threat. I am not convinced that for many reasons, Trump is not the answer. Of course, it could all become moot, as the national debt may just severely curtail any necessary response with dismal results.
Lars,
Poor thing, you should have immigrated to China, where there is good communism because no Russians. There’s still time. Let me know if there’s anything I can do to help you on your way.
“Me and most people in the Baltic area knew it was because they were Russians. We all had centuries of experience to rely on. Recent activities have only enforced that view.”
Lars – understood. I’m sure I’d feel the same were I from there. I know I would. But that understandable fear has driven all the periphery countries into the arms of the EU, which was a rotten deal for the Balts in particular and resulted in depopulation and the loss of their independence, and has driven them into the arms of NATO.
That’s also a bum deal. Installing extremists in Kiev and setting them on the Russians living in the then Ukraine is not a good defence strategy. The Balts shouting from the rooftops that they want Russia broken up, and following that up by threatening a Russian exclave, invites rather than discourages the very aggression they wish to avert.
The Balts using NATO and the formidable power of the United States for defence is one thing. The Balts being used by the losers in Berlin/Brussels and Washington in an attempt to weaken or destabilise the RF, the openly declared aim of so many politicians in the West, is quite another. The Balts aren’t thinking straight and if they don’t take care, they’ll end up being the sacrificial lambs just as the Ukrainian were. What we’ve seen in that entire region since before 2014 is nothing to do with adequate defence and everything to do with being used for ends that cannot benefit Eastern Europe.
Nor Europe as a whole. What we’ve done and are still doing in Ukraine is squalid and contemptible by any measure and does nothing for real security for any of us.
If I am not mistaken gas pipeline may be part of the same deal that allows Russia rail transport between Belarus and Kaliningrad. Lithuania made some noises about blocking this last year but backed off quickly after Russia made it clear this is a red line. So the gas transit rights to Kaliningrad are not tied to a contract, so Lithuania cannot cut it off.
voislav,
Lithuania blocked the transshipment of almost half the goods being shipped as part of the initial sanctions against Russia, but relented when the EU decided those sanctions only applied to road traffic, not rail. The rail traffic is part of a Lithuanian-Russian agreement rather than any contract. The pipeline may be the same way. It all depends on if Lithuania wants to continue the agreement and if the EU wants to back Lithuania’s more belligerent actions. I don’t think the EU wants to provoke Russia on this point at this time. Lithuania would just as soon shut the border completely.
Me and most people in the Baltic area knew it was because they were Russians.
Sorry Lars, sorry, can’t help:
What part of the tribal genesis of the Russian ethnicity may have created this significant feature? How to best define it? EthnoSuppressoCidal versus the German’s genocidal, or more precisely CommunoJewoCidal one?
With all due respect?
Would having an oversupply of drunks, liars, thugs and thieves qualify? In Scandinavia, in all military training exercises, the enemy always came from the east. Why do you think it was like that? Add to that the support for Putin that has lasted for quite some time. Over the years I have observed many Russians here in Florida and why do you think they are easily spotted? I will give you a clue: It is how they act.
Lars,
The Norwegians took on the Swedes from the other direction and Sweden had its share of wars of conquest too. Thanks for the profiling tip. Does it work for other races and nationalities too?
Hmm, ok, fair enough. From my inner checklists: Builder? Emigrant from the Baltics/USSR? …
Admittedly Eric has gained something we call Narrenfreiheit=freedom of fools somehow for me by now. Although he can get a little intense sometimes. But this surprised me, I didn’t notice racism as one of your significant features, by now. I didn’t pay attention?
In Scandinavia, in all military training exercises, the enemy always came from the east.
curiously enough I realized this while watching Baltic and Scandinavian movies or series quite a while ago…. Basic mental feature by now?
It is not as much about ethnics as it is cultural. Focus on that and you may get to the reality instead of assuming racism. The Russians have never been led by anyone other than a dictators and there has to be a reason for that.
Regarding Sweden’s conquests, they ended about 400 years ago and Swedish soldiers were last in combat in 1809. Sweden has also been neutral for a very long time, but Russia ended that.
Lars,
Sweden ended that. Russia is a convenient cover for the leftists who have transformed the culture of Sweden into what it is today.
TTG, just as general background, I think you might enjoy at least the first video of this playlist:
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZlQy6FlDBO1ypReq5m5OKOo_pcScdtDe
What it shows is how various cultures and peoples have spread over Europe over the centuries,
from the Baltic peoples to the Sarmatians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarmatians
This is (part of) the reason I can’t get excited about who is currently controlling Kyiv.
Keith Harbaugh,
I’ve enjoyed those animations for years, especially because I’m acutely aware of Lithuania’s outsized role in European history. In the run up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow was pushing the story that Kyiv was Russia and the Ukrainians don’t exist. The entire territory historically belonged to Russia. In response, Lithuania made the tongue-in-cheek response that Ukraine, Belarus and part of Russia historically belonged to Lithuania so Vilnius should have all that territory, not Moscow.