Burke Chair Paper on Election in Iraq

Download IraqElection21-12-05.PDF

I have attached Cordesmann’s paper on the recent election in Iraq.  I am going to write on the implications of the election result, but have not quite internalized the outcome yet,

I am depressed that so many analysts and spokemen for the media and government continue to treat the subject of the elections in Iraq as though what matters is the PROCESS rather than the OUTCOME.

More on this later.

Pat Lang

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8 Responses to Burke Chair Paper on Election in Iraq

  1. Patrick Henry says:

    Amen..Thats the big question..
    Thats what Got the Bush administration into this
    Situation in the First Place..
    I Guess we should all cross Our Fingers and Hold our Breath..
    God..I Love Leadership..

  2. John Howley says:

    The U.S. election of 1860 was free and fair by the standards of the day. It led to…the bloodiest war in the Western hemisphere.

  3. nanook says:

    Pat, You have a point that the Bush administration has focused on process and not outcome. I can see a simple reason. They miscalculated in such a wholesale manner regarding the invasion and got snookered by the Iranians. Now, the facts on the ground don’t support the desired outcome, so they are forced to salvage at least process.
    Not only are these guys incompetent but their hubris knows no bounds.

  4. Rider says:

    from the Independent (UK)
    Iraq’s election result: a divided nation
    By Patrick Cockburn Published: 21 December 2005
    Iraq is disintegrating. The first results from the parliamentary election last week show the country is dividing between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish regions.
    Religious fundamentalists now have the upper hand. The secular and nationalist candidate backed by the US and Britain was humiliatingly defeated.
    The Shia religious coalition has won a total victory in Baghdad and the south of Iraq. The Sunni Arab parties who openly or covertly support armed resistance to the US are likely to win large majorities in Sunni provinces. The Kurds have already achieved quasi-independence and their voting reflected that.
    The election marks the final shipwreck of American and British hopes of establishing a pro-Western secular democracy in a united Iraq.

  5. ked says:

    to paraphrase those paragons of process, lawyers; “if you don’t meet your goals, tout your procedures…”
    I WISH the Admin had some kind of moral & intellectual grounds for engaging in the world, but it is just so much bs from bitter reactionaries, failed romantics & greedy egoists…
    Meanwhile, the troops remain in the crossfire. When they grow up, I hope they are more pissed off than you guys were after VN. We need it.

  6. W. Patrick Lang says:

    We are still pissed off. You hadn’t noticed? In our case our hostility was diluted to some extent by having as its objects both the government and the American people.
    For these guys, the focus will be a lot sharper. pl

  7. Patrick Henry says:

    Pat..The OUTCOME is Obvious..and who has the Predominate Power and Control in the New Government of Iraq..
    Now we have to watch the Process..The next year will be Crucial..
    It May Take that long to see if the Outcome is GOOD..BAD..or FUBAR..
    All Scenarios should be Projected and Anticipated..
    through GOOD Unbiased Analyses..
    Various Responses Should be Projected..
    We Must be Alert to a Push by This Administration to Expand the WAR if things go bad..i/e Iran and Syria..
    would that be in the Best Interest of the United States..
    or More Effort just to Back the BUSH PLAN/OPERATION..??
    That would be Really bad for the TROOPS and MILITARY..
    It May be in the PIPELINE..
    and Our Troopers/Nation ..have a right to know..
    I dont want to Hear VICTORY Speechs now for Political Reasons..Manipulations..
    and Find Out we are Expanding the War in 6 months to a Year or Prior to next years Congressional Elections..
    The Outcome or outlook off the Elections may force this Administration to Panic and do something Rash again..just to Protect thier Plan..
    We Must be on Alert on All Levels..Political..National defense..Homeland Security..
    And as a Well Informed PEOPLE..because thats where the real POWER was Intended to be Placed by our Founding Fathers..
    Into the Hands of the PEOPLE..
    Thats what Inspired our CONSTITUTION..

  8. J Thomas says:

    Process is important. It’s possible that iraqis will learn how to run an election that looks fair, and do it after we’re long gone.
    If we can believe the opinion polls, essentially everybody in iraq who isn’t kurdish wants our military out of there within a year. Seven months ago they wanted us out within a year. A year and seven months ago a large majority wanted us out within 2 years. Say it takes them 6 months to get their government organised, and then they tell us to leave everywhere but kurdistan within a year. Could we have expected any other result from some other democratically elected government?
    Without our military it will be a different game, maybe better maybe worse, the data isn’t available. If the violence is reduced there might be a swing against religious parties — parties that win in wartime often don’t do as well under peace and prosperity. Religious zealots will surely be a problem for the foreseeable future — as they are in the USA.
    There’s reason for concern that the fanatics in power won’t turn over control when they get voted ot. But then, there’s reason for concern about that in the USA, too.
    It’s far too soon to tell how it will go. Maybe the iraqi government will have an easier time of it when they’re running their own counterinsurgency. Or maybe they don’t actually have much support, and some other government(s) with wider popular support will have to run a counterinsurgency against whoever opposes them with physical force.

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