Note: This is an excerpt from a CSIS report by Jade McGlynn published in June. It is “based on extensive fieldwork in Ukraine since 2022, largely in the de-occupied territories. It includes 63 interviews, 50 of which are with people who had been under occupation, 17 with individuals involved in violent or nonviolent resistance, and 7 with officials in the security services responsible for handling and helping ongoing resistance.” The full report is only 28 pages with endnotes so it’s an easy read. Jade McGlynn’s audio introduction to the report is only three and a half minutes long and is definitely worth a listen. She asks several important questions towards the end.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/crossing-thresholds-ukrainian-resistance-russian-occupation
DEMOGRAPHICS
The resistance movement in Ukraine’s occupied territories comprises a diverse demographic, although it predominantly involves younger participants. This younger cohort’s engagement is often attributed to a combination of factors: greater physical capability, a sense of invincibility, and, importantly, a stronger national identity coupled with less nostalgia for the Soviet Union era, as indicated by opinion polls. While men are more commonly engaged in active violent resistance, women play substantial roles in both nonviolent and violent actions. For instance, in the Zla Mavka group based in Melitopol, over a hundred women participate in direct actions, though the network extends far beyond this number. The movement has seen significant growth, particularly during the winter months when new members from Luhansk and Donetsk began to emerge, despite previous isolation.
A notable aspect of the resistance is the participation from Crimea, an area previously thought to be subdued after years of occupation. Reports indicate that a large number of women from Crimea have joined the resistance, demonstrating a readiness to oppose the occupation robustly. Women have also been instrumental in more covert forms of resistance—such as poisoning the food and drink offered to Russian soldiers, exploiting the occupiers’ presumptions of local hospitality. In an interview with the author, one ATESH commander explained the varied makeup of their resistance movement:
There are a lot of people and everyone is different but I will try to generalize as objectively as possible. We have men and women among our agents. Most of them are under 40. The majority of them are married but far from all of them have children. There are very few people in our movement who originally sympathized with Russia. Those few who did change their minds are not involved in sabotage operations but they do help with all sorts of information. On the other hand, we have a different situation with agents located in the Russian Federation. February 2022 changed the worldview of a lot of people. Such a large-scale war and the Putin regime’s crimes forced Russians to cooperate with the ATESH movement.
The socioeconomic profile of the resistance is primarily composed of middle and lower-class individuals. Many of the wealthiest Ukrainians fled the country early in the full-scale invasion, having the resources to do so. In contrast, those from less affluent backgrounds—including some of the most marginalized groups, such as prisoners—have contributed significantly to the resistance efforts. For example, detainees in the Kherson pretrial detention center managed to transmit coordinates of enemy missiles and machinery using a covertly held phone, enabling precise Ukrainian Armed Forces strikes on Russian command centers.
A notable aspect of the resistance is the participation from Crimea, an area previously thought to be subdued after years of occupation. Reports indicate that a large number of women from Crimea have joined the resistance, demonstrating a readiness to oppose the occupation robustly.
This demographic diversity within the resistance highlights a widespread national commitment across different strata of society, challenging the occupation through various forms of resistance that leverage the unique capabilities and circumstances of its members.
LANGUAGE, LOCATION, AND CULTURAL IDENTITY
Many resistance movements operate in Russian-speaking areas but conduct their activities in Ukrainian, as there is a lower likelihood of occupiers understanding the language. The use of the Ukrainian language in resistance activities, especially those involving information dissemination and education, also serves as a tool of cultural resistance and identity affirmation. It is worth noting, however, that despite language differences, there is no significant division between Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking individuals in terms of their opposition to the occupiers. Linguistic preference does not correlate with political allegiance; just as speaking English does not imply that an Irishman supports British reinvasion, speaking Russian does not mean a Ukrainian desires Russian occupation. In Kharkiv, for example, predominantly Russian-speaking defenders initially confronted the Russian “liberators” with significant resistance. Notably, the Azov Assault Brigade and the Kraken Special Division, units particularly reviled by the Kremlin, consist overwhelmingly of Russian speakers.
Furthermore, the assumption that residents in territories that were occupied following the 2014 invasion are less resistant than those in other cities does not always hold. For instance, Alchevsk in the Luhansk region, occupied by Russian forces in 2014, has experienced persistent hardships under occupation— including frequent water shortages, unstable mobile communications, and inadequate postal services—all of which have contributed to profound anger with the occupation. In an interview with the Eastern Variant network, a local Ukrainian partisan from Alchevsk conveyed the communal exhaustion with the ongoing deprivation and highlighted significant local resistance actions, such as the sabotage of enemy locations and ammunition depots:
Of course, the main problem in Alchevsk is water supply. It often happens that one of the areas does not have water for four to five days. Discussions arise almost weekly: either a water pipe has burst, the sewage smells across the street, or there has been no water for four days. Besides, the city often has very poor connectivity. Mobile internet was only allowed after the new year. . . . Even local Russian patriots realize that the occupiers have taken 10 years of their lives while not doing anything significant or centralized. Has life gotten better? Not at all. People have lost time, and that’s the most important thing. The occupiers closely monitor Alchevsk. Russians do not trust the local authorities entirely and always keep them under control, placing people from Russia. There are still people with a pro-Ukrainian stance in the city, especially noticeable in 2022 when almost all enemy locations and ammunition depots in Alchevsk were blown up, thanks to local partisans. Alchevsk is Ukraine. Alchevsk is waiting to return home.
Occupational challenges have persisted in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions since 2014, with the situation worsening after the full-scale invasion in 2022. From the very start, there has been forced mobilization, and local LNR and DNR forces receive inferior treatment compared to Russian soldiers. Further, the dissatisfaction among the collaborator ruling class with the Kremlin’s personnel policies has led to instances of noncompliance and outright sabotage, as evidenced in Horlivka, where new mobilization rounds were refused.
The author’s interviews with those living or having lived under LNR and DNR occupation often revealed conflicts between local “People’s Militia” units and Russian forces, driven by deep-seated differences. The cancellation of LPR and DPR passports, replaced with Russian passports, restricted residents’ ability to cross into Ukrainian-controlled territory, exacerbating tensions. Furthermore, the continuous arrests and detentions of pro-Ukrainian locals have intensified animosity toward Russian law enforcement representatives among the detainees’ families. To consolidate control, the Kremlin has significantly strengthened its law enforcement presence in the occupied territories, establishing an extensive network of Russian military and security forces, especially the National Guard and FSB (Russia’s domestic intelligence agency) counterintelligence.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/crossing-thresholds-ukrainian-resistance-russian-occupation
Comment: The presence of an active resistance in the occupied areas of Ukraine puts the lie to the Kremlin’s claim that they are liberating their Russian speaking brothers. The Russians are not liberators. They are unwanted invaders and they are being opposed, even in the territories already conquered, as unwanted invaders.
In honor of “Captive Nations Week,” Euromaidan Press linked to an extensive article from last November on Ukrainian resistance in the occupied territories. The original article came out shortly after the Storm Shadow strike on the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol. The Crimean resistance group Atesh provided the intelligence for the timing of the high-ranking meeting in the headquarters resulting in the killing of 34 Russian officers, including the Black Sea Fleet commander. I’ve linked to another more recent Euromaidan Press article describing how the resistance assists the Ukrainian Army’s defense against the Russian offensive on Chasiv Yar. That kind of coordination is the ultimate goal of a UW operation and the Ukrainians seem especially adept at it.
TTG
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/09/the-glory-pain-and-hope-of-the-ukrainian-underground/
This crystalizes why until Russia withdraws, Ukraine will be an open wound. It would take enormous effort to subject Ukraine to Russian rule. If they are smart, they would call it a day and go home and try to build up their own country. But as we know, they are not all that smart. They a fixated on a dream that increasingly is becoming a nightmare.
Lars,
It’s a common malady in history, is it not? We felt unable to withdraw from several wars despite an awareness those wars had been a mistake because we were afraid of losing face ourselves, and we were certainly not the first to suffer from the condition.
“Win” the war, “lose” the peace…but somehow honor is satisfied.
Way off topic, sorry. For those with nothing much to do. I’ve watched halfway so far and the biggest surprise to me is Charlize Theron, I thought better of her but admit it’s a tough choice. Highest IQ here is James Woods – 180 according to reports – he supports Donald Trump. So much for IQ tests.
Celebrities Who Support Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
https://youtu.be/0zhGGlT5eRQ
Despite each side arguing this point, political position is not at all a matter of intelligence but of prejudice rooted in personal/cultural history.
So much for IQ… furthermore do you know that a difference of about 15 IQ points (1 standard deviation) between two people makes it IMPOSSIBLE for them to share any relevant matters beyond trivia?
This is why most successful politicians rarely if ever goes beyond a 120 IQ (they would lose touch with the average voter 😀 )
To a rather high percentage, predictable, at least considering the US celebrities I am familiar with. I doubt anyone feels Clint Eastwood supports the Democrats, let alone Biden.
********************
Charlize Theron, not sure if having Republican friends makes you a supporter of the Cherry Blossom King. See discussion below:
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskALiberal/comments/1e2jkhs/does_charlize_theron_actually_support_trump_or_is/?rdt=45903
https://www.vulture.com/2019/12/charlize-theron-bombshell-movie-republicans-trump.html
I am ignorant:
Who is the “Cherry Blossom King”, and where did he get that moniker?
Thank you.
Old SST lore, would take to long to explain.
Atesh is not only in Crimea but are also active in Russia itself. They conduct espionage there reporting Russian military movement plus targeting for GUR long-range drone and missile strikes. And they’ve conducted sabotage throughout the Russian Federation from St Petersburg to far eastern Siberia. They claim to have 1800 agents and 50,000 subscribers to their Telegram channel.
Leith – got it right this time and sorry for my earlier mistake! – you’ve just set out why remnant Ukraine is going to be “demilitarised and denazified”. Neutralised, in fact, because that’s what demilitarisation and denazification comes down to. As you say:-
“Atesh is not only in Crimea but are also active in Russia itself. They conduct espionage there reporting Russian military movement plus targeting for GUR long-range drone and missile strikes. And they’ve conducted sabotage throughout the Russian Federation from St Petersburg to far eastern Siberia. They claim to have 1800 agents and 50,000 subscribers to their Telegram channel.”
Ask, would you allow similar work from across the Mexican border. Would you expect the US government to sit quietly while people from outside the US were doing that to you?
Particularly if the network doing that were funded and supported by a hostile foreign power outside Mexico. The White House would throw a fit if the Russians were promoting such activity inside the US. The Kremlin is likely to be no more acceptant when it’s happening the other way.
We know that it is happening the other way, using western resources and assistance. Budanov’s outfit is responsible for some of the activity you mention. A recent US press report quotes a CIA officer stating that Budanov’s outfit is “our baby”. The CIA set it up and continues to support it. Another US press report tells of a dozen or so CIA bases on the Russian border, bases from which terrorist activity inside Russia originates.
That’s not wild internet gossip. It straight reporting from your mainstream news sources not, as far as I know, ever walked back by US official sources. And Budanov claims the credit for a whole heap of murders going back to before Zakharchenko and up to and beyond Darya Dugina. The NATO black ops people must be soft in the head if they think the Russians aren’t aware of that activity and will do whatever they can to stop it.
This article linked to above tells us loud and clear what NATO is hoping to keep going in the future:-
https://www.csis.org/analysis/crossing-thresholds-ukrainian-resistance-russian-occupation
And as I pointed out well over a year ago now, that’s what we hope will happen after the war. We hope to keep using remnant Ukraine as a base from which to keep stirring the pot.
As has been obvious since ’22 that guarantees that remnant Ukraine will no longer exist in its present form. Do we really think that the Russians will allow that for ever? When the US wouldn’t allow it for a second?
There is going to be resistance of a sort after the war. Goes without saying, that. I’ve quoted Sleboda acknowledging as much. The ultra-nationalists we’re backing have it as an article of faith that the Russians are an inferior race. They won’t take kindly to being defeated by such. The question is, shall we in the West be permitted to make use of that resistance after the war. Sleboda reckons we shall. He predicts that remnant Ukraine will remain a “zone of destabilisation and insecurity”.
I don’t think so. Most of the ultras will be dead or will have moved to Germany. Those remaining will therefore be few and will be well known to their neighbours. Therefore to Russian Intel.
Our using Ukraine as a NATO attack dog against Russia has led to the present mess. That we are hoping to continue so using it seals the fate of remnant Ukraine. Unless this war goes nuclear the Russians will take our attack dog away from us. They can do no other than neutralise remnant Ukraine, as you would neutralise Mexico were the Russians using Mexico that way against you.
EO,
Your continued insistence that the Ukrainians can be nothing more than obedient proxies is disheartening. I thought better of you. Can’t you grasp the notion that a people will rise up on their own to resist an invader or occupation?
And as I pointed out well over a year ago now
Pretty amazing to see someone staying the course in a somewhat unsupportive environment. There are a few. 😉 But his not so unusual prediction of the Decline of the West keeps him going, knowing in the end he will be proven right!!!
Hi LeaNder. “Somewhat unsupportive environment?” Haven’t noticed that, if so.
Must be a hell of a culture shock, this discussion, for anyone coming from Scholz country. The country where none dare ask questions. Not even about gas pipes.
But it’s OK. Mini-Barbarossa Scholz may indeed be taking you back to the Third Reich when it comes to information control. Recent court cases indicate he’s doing his level best in that line. But in the States, they’ve got this pesky thing called the First Amendment that preserves them from that fate.
I agree with you more than I agree with most of your commenters, TTG. Always have done. We see eye to eye on the Donbass whereas most in the West haven’t the faintest clue about what’s been happening there.
Points of disagreement are few. One point of disagreement is that I don’t believe the Russians wanted Ukraine and I believe they didn’t move until we forced them to. That country’s no prize and hasn’t been for decades.
The other point of disagreement, just about the only one of any importance, is that I’m dead sure the Russians have no ambitions in the way of subjugating Europe. I’m dead sure of that not because I have any insight into Russian politics. I don’t have any such insight.
I’m sure the Russians don’t want to subjugate Europe or any part of it because Europe, even before 2022, was not what most Americans think it is. It’s a semi-derelict continent that would cost far more in blood and treasure to keep occupied, and to keep in food and fuel, than any possible return could warrant.
That applies even more to the Eastern Europeans. Depopulated industrial wastelands, their once useful industries sucked away by the German trading empire they were fool enough to join, and living hand to mouth on such subsidy as the EU cares to dole out. Also the stoutest fighters in Europe and they really don’t like Russians, so all those Eastern European countries would be a nightmare to occupy and police.
That for a negative return? Can we assume that the Russians are that dumb? I don’t.
So the Russians might keep supplying Europe with fuel and raw materials as long as they see any point to doing so, but as Bill said here long ago they’re riding East. In search of more reliable customers and more profitable trade.
And when it comes to the famous European cultural values well, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russian reaction to, say, the opening of the French Olympics wasn’t much the same as the reaction in most parts of the world outside the West. “God help us, we’re not going anywhere near that lot!”
So there’s nothing much in Europe for the Russians to covet. I’m certain most Americans don’t understand that. They still see Europe as central to Western civilisation and economically powerful. So naturally they want to keep it in their camp, failing to understand that there’s no profit in that to the Americans either.
And as far as being useful allies go you’ll know better than I do that militarily the Europeans are all talk and no do; and judging by the way they’re scrimping on their defence budgets they’ll remain that way.
Those are our points of disagreement. I do agree when you say that the Ukrainians are not our obedient proxies. They’re our conned proxies and I believe those running our affairs in the West knew it was a con from the start.
The Ukrainians fought on in the belief that the West would give them adequate support. They’ve now found out that our industrial base simply doesn’t allow us to make weapons in quantity, let alone supply them. That’s a billion people who’ve let their defence industries run down so much that we can’t even begin to match what a hundred and fifty million can make!
I cannot imagine that our Intelligence Services didn’t know what the Russians could produce and what we could produce. Their surge capacity and our lack of surge capacity must have been pretty well an open secret in US military circles and probably in military circles over here too.
Yet we kept the Ukrainians fighting – all that talk of “as long as it takes” and all those empty promises – knowing full well we couldn’t match the Russians when it came down to it. Our proxies have lost their country and half a million lives as a result of those empty promises.
What we did to the Ukrainians was a straight con. Since 2022 it’s been a real puzzle, trying to work out why those in authority in the West practised that con on the Ukrainians. More and more Ukrainians are now trying to work that out too. They will join the long list of Western proxies who’ve been taken for a ride and I doubt those that survive the bloodbath will be pleased about it.
I can confidently predict that a Ukrainian “resistance” is BS and it will last exactly as long as Washington keeps supplying them with money.
Why? Because at least I know romantic pap when I read it. The hard facts are that it is easy to rebrand criminals and thugs as “resistance fighters”, all you need is sufficient money.
walrus,
Horseshit. The Lithuanian armed resistance lasted into the 60s with no aid from the West. I don’t think you have a clue about resistance fighters.
These reports have been around a while. They are part of the reason I don’t think the Russians can win.
I think the Russians should have read GEN (R) Wesley K. Clark’s Waging Modern War (2002) before launching this thing. I also think we should have done so before launching OIF I in 2003.
Planning for how you deal with the AFTERMATH of war is part of the task of planning the war itself.
And furthermore TTG, you fail to tell people that the creation of spurious “resistance groups” is a well known, tried and tested tactic of all sides and that the last chapter in all the training and operations manuals, as you must know perfectly well, is exactly the same – how to dispose of the group when it has served its purpose or becomes unwanted.
It would be a very stupid Ukrainian who decided to participate in such an undertaking whatever the financial inducement, because the chances of the work having a happy ending are infinitesimal.
walrus,
Fake resistance groups are a known tactic. Our over throw of Jacobo Árbenz in Guatemala in 1953 used that tactic. And your right that the demobilization phase is a mostly overlooked phase of a successful UW. But Ukrainians and many others continue to become resistance fighters despite the lethal risks. I know from my own family the willingness to accept those risks.
TTG,I apologize for my tone and I have no wish to disparage genuine resistance movements such as Lithuanian organizations.
However we both know that fake groups are very, very easy to create – by rebranding criminal gangs and providing resources and some local color. Considering the amount of corruption in Ukraine, a resistance group would be easy to create. All they have to do is arrange a few arson attacks, power line destruction to satisfy the credulous buffoons who manage such operations, (not the likes of you and Pat), and we can have a continuous stream of “freedom fighter” stories for very little money.
My reference to “demobilization” is to the unpleasant but occasionally necessary option of deliberately betraying the group you created to the target government – which results in their quick liquidation, after you have removed your case manager of course. This is done if the group becomes uncontrollable or an embarassment. It’s also why you are enjoined to keep accurate records of group membership, payments, contacts, etc.
One never knows in such work, exactly who is paying you, their motivations or plans. It usuallly doesn’t end well for the foot soldeirs
walrus,
A prime modern example of what you are referring to are the Montagnards of Viet Nam. A lot of our SF went to extraordinary lengths to bring as many back to the states as possible and continue to watch over them to this day. More recently the Rojava Kurds are in danger of being abandoned. I would hope we are doing something to convince them to reach an accommodation with Damascus if there is one to reach. I don’t want to see us abandon them to the Turks, the jihadis and the SAA although the America First faction are ambivalent to such a fate for the Kurds.
As far as a totally fake resistance, the example I already gave was Guatemala in 1953. The CIA created a resistance out of whole cloth.
A confluence of the criminal underworld, resistance movements and liberators from oppression coming from the outside is natural. Look at Sicily from the 19th century onwards. The motivations of this taking up arms for their country are firmly non-commercial, but their effort aligns often nicely with the gangs. Italy paid and still pays a terrible price as a result. Other examples: Myanmar right now. We also paid a terrible price when conflating the Taliban with the narcos in Afghanistan.
Walrus – Here is one example regarding your disposing of a resistance group when it has served its purpose:
The Nùng of North Việt-Nam, a mountain people like the Montagnards, were famous resistance fighters for Ho Chi Minh. They were some of the first guerrilla units fighting against the French. Early on they welcomed Ho and his cadres into their highland valleys providing them a safe base of support. They fought against the French and later against the Americans. One of their leaders, Chu Văn Tấn known by the French as the Bac Son Tigre Gris, became Ho’s MinDef in 1945 for a few months.
But the Nùng and other mountain people in the North got screwed after the fighting stopped. Their promised Autonomous Zone was rescinded and Hanoi forcibly vietnamized them and other minorities outlawing their language and many of their traditional customs. They were moved from their villages into government settlements. A quarter million ethnic Việt from the lowlands were moved in and given the best land in the mountain valleys.
True on an individual level, many times, but governments (or occupations) beset by an insurgency (or several, or many) usually don’t do well either, which is why outsiders support them . . . .
For your argument to hang together you have to assume that Russia and the US are similar countries and they are not. If the US invaded Canada, there would be some similarities, but as far as I know, that is not going to happen. What you need to keep in mind is that Russia’s invasion is the cause of their problem and it is not theoretical.
The Mexicans have invaded across our borders. But they work for less than Americans in the building trades and others.
Er, Lars. If the Canadians were firing Russian missiles into US territory, or running assassination and sabotage operations into the US, there’d be nothing theoretical about the US response. The US would do whatever it had to do to put a stop to it.
The Ukrainians are firing Western missiles into Russian territory, and running assassination and sabotage operations into Russia, and the Russians will do whatever they have to do to put a stop to it.
That’s why remnant Ukraine will be neutralised right up to the NATO border. So the Ukrainians can’t do that any more.
That’s going to be the Russian response we’ll be seeing. All that’s barring nuclear of course. If the US goes nuclear all bets are off. But as said before, I doubt the US will go nuclear. Not for Ukraine.
Others doubt that too:-
https://www.politico.eu/article/war-ukraine-nato-membership-nuclear-war-fight-russia-defense-75-anniversary/
” The underwriter of the alliance, the U.S., has already clearly demonstrated it won’t fight and risk nuclear war on Ukraine’s behalf, even when the latter’s survival is at stake, as the U.S. doesn’t have a vital interest in doing so,”
That’s what it boils down to Lars. We can and do disagree vehemently on the rights and wrongs of this war, but that’s irrelevant here. Your President will not take it as far as nuclear. Therefore remnant Ukraine will be neutralised.
EO,
“The Ukrainians are firing Western missiles into Russian territory, and running assassination and sabotage operations into Russia, and the Russians will do whatever they have to do to put a stop to it.”
The Russians wouldn’t have to worry about Ukrainian missiles, drone or sabotage operations if they didn’t launch their invasion. None of that was happening prior to February 2022. It would stop if the Russian Army left Ukrainian territory.
@EO: “If the Canadians were firing Russian missiles into US territory, or running assassination and sabotage operations into the US, there’d be nothing theoretical about the US response. The US would do whatever it had to do to put a stop to it.”
Flawed logic EO, the US is not invading Canada. If we were invading Canada and occupying Canadian territory then they would have every right to fight back and fore missiles at us or send in sabotage teams. We would do the same if the situation was reversed.
TTG,
Had the west not run a color revolution in Ukraine there would have been no invasion.
Fred,
The 2004 Orange Revolution was homegrown as was the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution, but we did have our thumb on the scale during the latter. By your logic there would have been no invasion if the USSR didn’t fall apart.
TTG,
Can you imagine if the Chinese ambassador was walking around on January 6th handing out cookies to the insurrectionists while those insurrectionists threw Molotov cocktails at police?
TTG,
“The 2004 Orange Revolution was homegrown as was the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution, but we did have our thumb on the scale during the latter”
“Thumb on the scale” is quite an understatement. To be exact, didn’t we (the US) spend 6 billion dollars to have the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution?
It’s noble to be against the Russia invasion of Ukraine, but IMHO, we need to be realistic and truthful about the reason behind the invasion and what happened before that.
TonyL,
It was 5 billion dollars from 1991 to 2014 to promote democracy and anti-corruption training. Unfortunately it was the right wing factions that took the anti-corruption training most seriously. We and the EU spent similar amounts of money in other formerly communist countries in Eastern Europe.
TonyL –
Between 1991 and at least 1998 the US also sent billions of dollars to Russia for economic reforms. Unfortunately for the Russian people, instead of reform they got oligarchy and the Thief-in-Chief, Putin.
TTG,
Sure. Thumb on the scale, but only the second time. The one that put Zelensky the Honest into power. As the little girl said at the end of Miracle on 34th Street “I believe. I believe. I believe. “……
Fred,
Kolomoisky was Zelenskiy’s sugar daddy in 2019. He thought he bought a friendly winner, but was rewarded with efforts to dismantle his stranglehold on media and to strip him of Ukrainian citizenship.
TTG,
When one “promotes democracy” in another country one is promoting certain political actors and thus interfering in their democracy.
Or at least that is what it is called when other countries do it to us. When we do it to them it is called “promoting democracy”. The problem with this Orwell-like hypocrisy is that it is not sustainable.
James,
What other countries are promoting fair elections, wide voter participation and anti-corruption measures in the US.
leith,
Yes, Putin is an autocrat, and his government is an authoritarian regime. No doubt about it. But I think we (the West) have been playing an old tired playbook, where we demonized him 24/7 with propaganda. That is not going to work with a patriotic Russian population. They feel threaten with invasion by NATO, and all the talks from the West about disintegration of Russia, and I am sure you know what a patriotic people do in that situation.
@EO: ” Do we really think that the Russians will allow that for ever?”
It will stop the minute that Russians leave Ukraine, it won’t go on forever. Russia needs to denazify its own self.
By the way, Atesh is not based out of what you and Putin claim is Ukraine. It is based out of Crimea, which you and the Russian Duma seem to think is part of the Russian Federation. Do they get support from Budanov? Of course they do, he’d be an idiot not to support them.
Atesh was formed in September 2022, after Putin’s SMO. Neither the CIA nor NATO needed to promote Atesh. It was self-promoted by Crimean Tatars who have been victimized by the Kremlin. They are not CIA mercenaries. Their motives are the liberation of Crimea from Putin, anti-Moscow colonialism, and Ukrainian nationalism.
They have welcomed other Ukrainians into their ranks as well as anti-Putin Russian dissidents. They publicly claim to have agents embedded within the Russian military. Although its hard to know whether that is true or a ploy to get the FSB chasing their tail looking for strawmen?
Putin cannot stop it and cannot turn Ukraine into a rump state. He’s tried for two and a half years and lost ~500,000 troops as KIA, WIA or POW. The GRU is too busy raising hell in Europe trying to do sabotage there like Atesh and Budanov are doing in Russia. The FSB and Russia’s military-industrial-complex are enriching themselves through graft and corruption.
Well, we’ve got common ground Leith in that some of those Ukrainian units are superb. I think there are plenty of Russians who acknowledge that too. But the very fact that those units stick to their work magnificently means they’re getting hammered. In fact the 47th might already be no longer a coherent unit.
Zelensky and Biden, both of them, are in a bind. My own opinion after Istanbul was that all this talk of ceasefires or negotiations was so much eyewash. That with the failure of the Istanbul talks the only negotiations between the Russians and the Ukrainians would be negotiations on the terms of capitulation. And that the longer the delay in recognising that the more lives and territory the Ukrainians would lose.
That is still my opinion. But neither Zelensky nor the Biden administration can accept that. So those magnificent Ukrainian units will keep fighting to the bitter end. I do believe the Biden administration is hoping to keep it looking good somehow until the election. So he’s not going to be called by his opponents “the man who lost Ukraine”, or not until after the election. I believe that, as far as one can discern any policy there, that’s still the policy though the candidate has changed.
That may make sense in PR terms for American domestic politics. It is, however, not correct when it comes to the fighting. We’ve seen great numbers of men squandered to no purpose at Krynki, many more lost in pointless PR offensives before that. This is not how good troops should be used. Or any, for that matter.
I don’t accept that the Milley/Cavoli/Radakin trio were taken by surprise by the failure of last year’s so called counter-offensive. They knew the strength of the defences and they knew those defences could only be breached by means of a combined arms operation the Ukrainians had neither the equipment nor the training to mount. Had they thrown NATO troops away like that they’d undoubtedly have been cashiered. But it was only proxies so none reprimanded them – or even noticed.
These people were irresponsible amateurs and should be nowhere near command positions. And now irresponsible and amateurish politicians, Zelensky and your President both, insist the carnage continue until the end. Neither understanding that with their stubborn refusal to face reality they’re playing right into the Russians’ hands.
TTG, of course you are expecting someone(s) to point out CSIS is a CIA front, so everything they publish is agitprop. cheers,
ked,
Does CSIS have connections with the CIA and many other allied government agencies? Undoubtedly. But accusing them of being a CIA front is unimaginative and lazy.
CIA Front not imaginative … how about CIA Rump, Derriere, three letter animal beginning with “a?”
I know this is extremely difficult for people to accept that a country under martial law going on years now under the guise of fighting for democracy could actually be losing but they are no longer losing. They have lost. Only thing left to decide is how much losing.
Do they keep fighting “to the last man” or, do they remain a smaller rump state. Russia will never give back any of their gains under any circumstance. If anyone believes they will all I can tell you is you are living in the new liberal democracy world lands of unfalsifiable claims which is worse than the bloodlands.
Keep telling yourself masks work, distancing works, vaccines work, Ukraine is winning. Keep doing it. You will find yourself deeper and deeper into the jaws of hell with no way out.
Meanwhile a G7 nations decides to make a move in the Levant with that country Russia aided.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/italy-becomes-first-g-7-country-restore-ties-assad
It is about time. The whole escapade was planned and funded in the west and the Khalij. The west, particularly the US, has wanted to remove Assad and the regime for decades. Very well educated and very diverse, ethnically and religious, Syria is now a shadow of itself because of the failed western misadventure. 500,000 plus dead.
I am not a fan of Assad, but I am not a fan of any regime in that area of the world. The fact is, every single country in that region would do what Assad did to hold onto power or worse. Many of them, even Western allies, have done just as bad without having the excuse of trying to hold onto power, ie the Saudis/UAE and others in Yemen.
What would the West, Turkey and the Saudis replaced Assad with? ISIS light. The fact that the US and others were willing and able to fund, arm and run cover for Islamic extremists in Syria is sickening. Meanwhile much of the “White Helmets” otherwise known as “moderate” Islamist rebels, are mostly relaxing in the west having claimed and been granted asylum.
In the US both Republicans and Dems got in on the action. Even Trump ordered attacks on Syria.
Stefan,
The Borg are transnational. The White Helmets are a UK operation. But by all means blame America first. Everyone else does.
The UK rarely does anything on its own. I suggest you read Wikileaks on Syria. The US had been pushing for regime change in Syria for years and years. It is well known for anyone who really follows the events in the region.
Over 250,000 State Department emails from the highest levels leaked in 2010. The US had been trying to undermine the Syrian regime for decades. The “uprising” gave them the perfect opportunity to do so using “moderate” (Islamist) rebels to do so.
It was talked about on this very forum non stop back in the day.
https://truthout.org/articles/wikileaks-reveals-how-the-us-aggressively-pursued-regime-change-in-syria-igniting-a-bloodbath/
Stefan,
Barack the Light-Bringer, Nobel Peace Prize winner, Obama was for regime change? Who knew! Feel free to look back in the SST archives to references to the Borg, trans-nationality, and UK influence in the levant as well. Blame America first though, it is easy to do. Gives great cover to the UK also.
“It will stop when Russia leaves Ukraine.” That is absolute BS. Washington has made its oppposition to the very idea of a Russian state quite plain.
If Russia was stupid enough to leave without finishing the job, NATO missiles will be on its borders in a heartbeat.
Seems a bit of cognitive dissonance is going on here.
On the one hand everyone accepts as a given that the Russians have no qualms about launching “meat assaults” without end.
And on the other hand we are being asked to accept that a bit of Gladio-style sabotage and espionage is going to be unbearable to the Russian.psyche.
Which one is true?
Because I can’t see how both propositions can be correct.
Yeah, Right,
Resistance movements are not unbearable to the Russian psyche, nor will they inflict a decisive defeat on the Russians, but they will continue to nibble away on Russia’s ability to continue their invasion and occupation especially when coordinated with Ukraine’s other military operations.
To what end, TTG?
YR,
To help make the Russians give and leave, one way or the other. Maybe the Russians get pissed off at these guys and inflict an atrocity or two, which gets leaked to the “global community” that you’re always going on about. Then the Russians start to lose their BS facade of moral righteousness. Maybe one of your exalted world courts then “convicts” Russia. Maybe the resistance just adds a thousand cuts to the already heavy bleeding Russia is suffering – and who knows what finally tips the scale in favor of giving up and/or changing leadership. Russia really screwed the pooch with this invasion, despite their paid agents in the US perennially proclaiming that Ukraine is falling – any day now!
Eric – any day now’s a risky prediction. WWII was lost as soon as the Americans and the Russians came in. Certainly by Stalingrad. But it was a long and bitter struggle thereafter.
This war was lost when the Russians pulled their Article 51 stunt. Buried six foot deep with the failure of the sanctions war. Putin may or may not give a bit to allow Washington to save face on the PR front, but the internal pressures on him now are such that he won’t be able to do much in that line.
It’ll only be a local defeat. The Golden Billion still packs a punch and no doubt we’ll be prodding away at the RF elsewhere for years to come. But not in Ukraine.
“If you won’t talk to Mr Putin and Mr Lavrov, you’ll have to talk to Mr Gerasimov and Mr Shoigu”, used to be said. The talking’s about done now.
EO,
Article 51 only covers a UN member that is attacked, like Ukraine. It does not authorize an invasion of a UN member.
“To help make the Russians give and leave, one way or the other.”
Then it is an endeavor that is doomed to fail.
Which to my mind is neither here nor there: the USA can bash its head against a brick wall as much as it likes as far as I am concerned, and if they do then I don’t care one way or the other.
But in the meantime a vast number of otherwise able-bodied people are either dying or being crippled in pursuit of an objective that is beyond their abilities.
Which seems to me to be a tragedy, but somehow (and, honestly, I don’t know how) there are people here who see it as noble.
The “John Bolton” view, I suppose.
I used to think he was a unique individual.
Apparently not.
Yeah, Right,
Putin is causing a vast number of otherwise able-bodied Russians either to die or be crippled in pursuit of an objective that is beyond Russia’s abilities. It’s been two and a half years and the Ukrainians still stand as an independent people and the Russians have half a million casualties. Unfortunately, Putin has millions more to sacrifice in pursuit of his forlorn hope.
EO,
“WWII was lost as soon as …. and the Russians came in.”
I recall Russia coming into Poland in 1939. I don’t recall England declaring war on them though. Apparently they weren’t obligated to defend Poland from the USSR.
How are those EU sanctions working for Europeans? How about that UK+ sabotage of NS pipeline, keeping the Germans on the right side still?
TTG, you and I both know how this is going to end.
The USA will continue to promise unlimited support to Ukraine “for as long as it will take”, and will do so until Washington decides that, no, it’s sick and tired of this.
At that point the money spigot will be turned off, and Zelensky will run to his waiting jet while laden down with suitcases stuffed with cash.
He may make it in time, in which case he will “retire” to Miami. Though it is equally likely he’ll end up dead in a ditch.
The Ukrainian government will collapse, and whatever replaces it will end up signing a treaty that gives Russia everything that it wanted. Maybe a bit more.
And in a few years time everyone will look back at the entire war and say “Well, that was all a bit naff, wasn’t it?”
We both know that’s how it will go, so why do so many Ukrainians have to die before we get there?
Yeah, Right,
You and I have very different visions of the future. I don’t see Ukraine or Russia collapsing by the end of the war.
You seem to be bothered by Ukrainians dying. Don’t you have any concern about the half million dead and crippled Russians so far?
Off topic.
Mali or MMS (miles and miles of sand),
“In Mali, following an ambush by militants in the north of the country, a significant number of Wagner PMC fighters and Malian Armed Forces soldiers were killed. The militants attacked under the cover of a sandstorm, pulling off a tactical surprise. In addition, a significant number of government soldiers and several Wagner fighters were captured.”
The perpetrators of this ambush are obviously the Tuaregs, including the Azawad. The Tuareg are divided into several factions, but when the “Baroud” is announced, they align themselves.
It’s the 2-headed eagle’s turn to take over from the Gallic cockerel on these MMS.
When the Russians took our place in these godforsaken lands, I had wished them good luck with religious, ethnic and clan issues not forgetting drug and future slaves trafficking.
Last minute:
Ukr announces that they have provided Azawad with the information enabling this ambush.
Those Tuareg fighters said on social media that they were ready to hand over captured Wagner fighters to Ukraine as a “sign of support and solidarity.”
A Russian Z-blogger claims the Wagner group was drawn into the ambush. They went chasing after a small group of Tuaregs who were in a feigned retreat.
It’s amazing that this trap, as old as guerrilla warfare, still works.
d74,
It’s as old as warfare itself. Ghengis Khan was a master at it.
Local AQ franchise JNIM says the Malian Army and Wagners first ran into the Azawad forces’ ambush on their drive to the Algerian border, then withdrew (further to the West) and came over to JNIM’s side and ran into their forces who finished off the group. So ghana’im for both.
TTG,
“The presence of an active resistance in the occupied areas of Ukraine puts the lie to the Kremlin’s claim that they are liberating their Russian speaking brothers. The Russians are not liberators. They are unwanted invaders and they are being opposed, even in the territories already conquered, as unwanted invaders.” The presence of active resistance is meaningless. What matters regarding Russia’s claim is how widespread the support for the resistance is. I don’t know how widespread it is, but neither do you. Some months ago there was a wonderful piece of propaganda in the BBC. The journalist went to a town that had been taken by Russia and then retaken by Ukraine. He complained that everybody seemed hostile to him, until he found one person who was very willing to talk. That person stated that during the time the Russians held the town all her colleagues at the hospital she worked at, and most of the people in the town, were happy. In fact, only she and a couple of friends were loyal Ukrainians and had to hide their feelings. She then told the journalist that when the Ukrainians took the town back, she had reported all those among her colleagues and townsfolk who had been particularly happy about the Russian presence to the Ukrainian secret police, but unfortunately the SBU had not arrested them all yet, probably because there were so many Russian sympathisers that it had too much work on its hands.
Now of course the BBC article made this woman seem like the heroine of the story. But it raises serious questions. While she is likely to be exaggerating about there only being three Ukraine supporters in the town – herself and a couple of friends – her account and the journalist’s own observations do indicate a very strong pro-Russian majority. So the woman’s call for the SBU to arrest all the Russia supporters can be seen not as the call of the majority to deal with a minority who supported foreign occupation, but rather the call of a minority for a foreign secret police to oppress the majority.
The Ukraine war is also a civil war, and it would be nice if you could occasionally put the black-and-white caricatures aside.
Karim –
And she probably confused Russkii sympathizers with townsfolk who just kept their mouth shut to keep from being arrested or worse.
Leith – problem is, most in the Donbass are Russians. The Western press have sold us the nonsense that they’re loyal Ukrainians brutally occupied by the Russians. Best not to be taken in by that – effective PR but hopelessly at variance with the facts.
Truth is, most in the Donbass were highly relieved to see the Russians back them up at last. You’re probably aware that Putin’s come under attack in Russia for not moving to rescue them sooner.
This is why I was distinctly unimpressed by the Article 51 legal stuff. No need for it. The reason for the invasion is a lot simpler than Mearsheimer and the rest of them say. Fellow Russians were at grave risk from the Kiev forces. The Russians moved to pre-empt that risk. End of story.
Though the Russians have tacked a whole lot on to that original reason for the SMO. This has now become a full frontal assault on Western dominance. As Boris Johnson remarked, the hegemony of the West is at stake.
It won’t bother you very much, as an American, losing that dominance. Might even advantage you. You’ve spent far too much money and effort running the world and you’ll be better off spending it on your own country instead. But the Europoodles are throwing fits. They bet their little all on ruining Russia and are now scared stiff in case they’ve ruined themselves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRBfrEtLWBw&ab_channel=JuliusAugustino
………………..
Should explain why the true start of this present conflict is dated February 22nd, the day of the Russian recognition of the self-declared Republics.
Before that date there was just a chance, though very slim, that Minsk 2 might hold. Putin was still being strung along by Scholz – look at that Scholz press conference in Moscow just before the SMO and also at the text of Macron’s last pre-SMO call with Putin. Putin was still clinging on to the hope of Minsk 2. It’s not generally recognised in the West that Putin really didn’t want this war. Or need it.
But that date was the day Putin finally said “To hell with it!” and let his Generals loose. Who’d obviously been chafing at the bit for months by then (years?) and were only too pleased to be let loose.
Those Generals were a lot cleverer than we in the West give them credit for. The opening days of the SMO were the neatest military operation ever seen, I’d guess. I’m still not sure the dumbos in the various military establishments of the West understand even yet how it was done.
But the sanctions war rather than the military war was where the real action was. Those “shock and awe” sanctions, particularly the financial sanctions, were fierce. It was on them that Biden and the Euros placed their hopes and though it seems obvious now they weren’t going to work, it was by no means so obvious at the time. So we must recognise the skill of the Russian Generals but when Mrs Nabiullina’s grandchildren ask her “What did you do in the war, Grandma”, the answer will be “Actually, darlings, I rather think I won it.”
…………………….
And if that seems to you, Leith, that I’m taking a somewhat relaxed and impersonal view of this disaster, I can assure you I’m not. I’m furious. So should you be.
What on earth is your country and mine doing getting involved in this disgraceful affair? What are we doing with such useless Generals and such dumb politicians? And why have our countries got themselves caught up in the mess of tribal animosities and delusions of grandeur Old Europe has now become?
There was a time I thought your country and mine were better than this.
EO,
Just because so many Ukrainians speak Russian does not mean they are Russians. Obviously there are some who prefer being ruled from Moscow rather than Kyiv, but that number seems to have dropped precipitously since Russia’s invasion. Russian treatment of Russian speaking Ukrainians in the occupied zones and even in the former DNR/LNR has hastened that drop.
It has also been a long standing Russian practice to move massive numbers of settlers into occupied territories while deporting the original inhabitants. It’s been a common practice of expansion in Imperial Russia, the USSR and now in the Russian Federation.
As for the Russian economy, Elvira Nabiullina laid out a sobering assessment during a 26 July press conference. I think it is only because she has been so successful managing the economy for the last few years that she was able to be this candid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDx2owyR50s
TTG – minor point. I date the full recognition of the self-declared Republics as 22nd February:-
“On February 22, 2022, Russia’s Parliament unanimously ratified agreements signed a day earlier by President Putin on “friendship, cooperation, and mutual assistance” with the two self-declared republics in eastern Ukraine. The Federation Council also granted a presidential request to deploy Russian troops abroad, giving the Kremlin the legal grounds to send soldiers openly into eastern Ukraine.”
https://meduza.io/en/live/2022/02/22/the-day-after
Hope they’ve got that right. I always date it from the 22nd but most sources I refer to say the 21st.
On the population mix, before 2014 I reckon most of the people living in the Kharkov – Odessa arc weren’t that bothered about who ruled as long as they were left in peace. After that date, and particularly after the ATO and the events in Odessa, they felt differently.
The Crimeans were that bothered and Zelensky’s a fool for pretending that’s in any way occupied Ukrainian territory. For the rest of it, I still believe Minsk 2 was the best solution but that’s now forgotten history.
On the Russian economy, I’m coming across jubilant articles in the English press claiming it’s on the ropes. People who’ve been over there say they see no signs of that. They’re still running a peacetime economy and are putting some thought into ensuring the massive increase in arms production is dual use for after the war.
Also seeing references from American sources saying the Euros have wrecked their own economy. Well, we’ve been doing that for decades what with outsourcing and the rest of it but as said before, I don’t think the sanctions war helped us at all. The triumphalism in Europe when we first hit Russia with the sanctions packages was marked, but the politicians and some in the public are beginning to grasp they were throwing boomerangs.
And if the Russians return the compliment and start throwing sanctions at us, we’re toast. Europe’s lost some of the Russian trade but is still part reliant on Russian fuel and raw materials.
“What did you do in the war, Daddy”, will be an easy question for Scholz. “Oh, nothing much. Just wrecked the bloody country for you.”
The declared independence of the Donbas republics was short lived. On 30 September 2022, the Kremlin declared those republics as Russian territory. It was all theater.
EO,
Excellent points.
Thank you.
In other related Ukrainian news, Zelensky is running out of money, again:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/zelensky-suspends-ukraines-foreign-debt-payments-starting-aug-1st
I’m sure the slave of Ukraine will pony up a few billion more. What percent for the big girl next year?
WaPo has an article on the enormous long-term cost
of the West’s refusal to respect Russia’s concerns vis-a-vis Ukraine:
“Behind Russia’s absence at the Olympics, a deepening fury”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/31/russia-putin-revenge-ukraine-allies/
Of course.
I think it is utterly insane that so many people are placing the interest of one group in Ukraine over the collective interest of the West.