Beirut, Lebanon — Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement said Tuesday that “a large number” of its members were wounded and at least three people killed when pagers issued by the group exploded simultaneously in locations across the Iran-backed group’s Beirut and south Lebanon strongholds. Some Lebanese sources were quoted by news agencies as blaming Israel, but Hezbollah said in its statement that it was still conducting a “wide-ranging security and scientific investigation to determine” the cause of the blasts.
The French news agency AFP and The Associated Press previously quoted Hezbollah officials as saying “several hundred” people were wounded by the device explosions around the country, including members of the group. The Hezbollah statement released later said one girl and two members of the group were killed. Lebanon’s state-run TV said Iran’s ambassador to the country, Mojtaba Amani, was injured by one of the blasts, but that he was “conscious and in no danger.”
One source close to Hezbollah told AFP the incident was a result of an “Israeli breach” of its communications. There was no immediate comment on the explosions by Israeli officials, and government ministers belonging to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party were told not to issue any.
The CBS News Confirmed team is working to verify a number of videos that quickly started spreading on social media, some showing people going about their daily activities when they’re seemingly struck by explosions on or near their bodies, and others showing the bloody aftermath of what appeared to be small explosions.
Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health issued statements Tuesday asking all health workers to urgently head to their workplaces to contribute to emergency care for the large number of casualties coming into hospitals after the explosions.
Hezbollah has relied increasingly on low-tech communications methods in a bid to circumvent Israeli electronic surveillance amid the killing of the group’s senior members, including top commander Fuad Shukr, who was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut in July. According to a Reuters report in June, Hezbollah commanders have banned cell phones in some areas and ordered members to rely instead on pagers and in-person communications.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hezbollah-lebanon-explosions-pagers-israel-hamas-war
Comment: This was a pretty ingenious attack. Besides wounding a number of Hezbollah soldiers, along with the Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon, this attack destroyed this Hezbollah means of communication. These pagers must have had Ni-Cad or lithium batteries instead of the AAA alkaline batteries I remember being in pagers. Were they two-way pagers? Or did Israeli intelligence insert itself into the pager supply chain to implant more deadly batteries?
As the article states and military logic demands, Hezbollah has been banning the use of cell phones and moving to less technical means of communication. Time to go old school, couriers and tactical wire. In the 70’s we would conduct battalion defensive and offensive operations without radios… all tactical wire. In the 90s, we avoided pagers, the new mobile phones and the use of credit cards in our intelligence operations. We used cash, which was still normal in Europe at the time, and relied on non-technical communications in our agent operations. Cell phones are the bane of us all. What will all this mean for the Russian-Ukrainian war?
TTG
TS Eliot dedicated The Wasteland: “For Ezra Pound: Il miglior fabbro.”
It’s one thing, TTG, to admire “the better craftsman” as a former SF officer. But there are thousands of sociopathic terrorists who will now seek to emulate this attack. You’ll tell me life isn’t fair. And you’ll be correct. Nonetheless it’s dirty pool, on the order of throwing acid in the face of an unfaithful lover (origin of several of our finest blind Black musicians).
Blind Lemon Jefferson : Matchbox Blues.
https://youtu.be/JXC1jjRCXtg
F&L,
An operation of this scale screams supply chain operation. Thousands of sociopathic terrorists don’t have the placement to pull this off. Not impossible, but damned near that. Countries can. The US and especially China are ideally placed to do this, but so can Israel and many other countries. Most wouldn’t care about collateral damage. Israel certainly doesn’t.
An old comrade of mine found this. We both are intimately familiar with supply chain operations.
“A Lebanese security source told Al Jazeera: “The radios were trapped in advance. The weight of the bomb that was hidden did not exceed 20 grams. The devices were received about five months ago. An investigation is underway into how the bomb was activated.”
Another writer sends:
It’s pretty incredible. You need physical access to install explosives. You probably need a firmware update in order to have a specific number or code trigger the explosive. You need placement and access to distribute the devices to the right people 🤯
It’s hard to fathom compromising the voltage controller or something to overheat the lithium ion batteries as the attack vector, because the explosions look like shape charges directed toward the person wearing the pager. In addition, batteries burn, they don’t explode
It’s also hard to imagine a mass supply chain compromise due to the risk of the explosives being discovered and the bigger risk of a civilian accidentally being hurt.
A just-in-time supply chain interdiction of pagers intended for delivery to specific targets, which would allow for physical compromise to insert shape charges + software update to use a code or number as the trigger seems like the simplest explanation.
Absolutely epic operation that blended cyber + kinetic actions + information warfare against an enemy
I was hoping you’d be able to shed more light on this.
I am slightly perplexed at the explanations people are coming up with for this, up to the point of saying the manufacturer had something to do with it.
Aren’t mobile phone-triggered bombs something easy to make?
If they had free and secluded access to the devices such as in a warehouse somewhere, couldn’t they have set up a disassemble, modify, reassemble, repackage line fairly easily?
Why does this need to be more than explosive and a couple wires soldered, maybe a micro-controller or something. But if they know exactly what to do, and have prepared in advance, couldn’t they turn over say hundreds of devices overnight with like 5 people?
Isn’t this the sort of classic “services” operation?
I think I have read before that the NSA would intercept, tamper and repackage devices in a similar fashion. This seems to be just a scaling up of the same playbook.
Am I missing something?
A Portuguese Man,
No, you’re not missing anything. It was a classic supply chain operation. Maybe the manufacturer or shipper was witting, maybe not.
Thanks TTG. Latest I’ve read on Tgrm is that these pagers were manufactured in the Czech Republic under license from a Taiwanese company possibly owned by an Israeli. Reportedly 500 people were blinded by the attack because the pagers beeped for 10 seconds before exploding which caused most victims to hold them up to look at device’s tiny viewing screen. If so shaping the charges may not have been necessary.
You will probably already know about the very serious drone attack in Tver Russia (180 km NW of Moscow) last night and early this morning. I’m hearing it was a “hardened” ammunition storage base — missiles and other stuff presumably.
Ukrainian drone attack triggers earthquake-sized blast at arsenal in Russia’s Tver region.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukrainian-drone-attack-triggers-earthquake-sized-blast-at-arsenal-in-russia-s-tver-region/
F&L,
I think it was Hungary rather than the Czech Republic.
That was indeed quite the blast in Toropets. Your link didn’t work, but here’s a couple about this drone strike.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/18/europe/ukraine-russian-weapons-depot-drone-attack-intl/index.html
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/09/18/ukrainian-drones-strike-major-military-depot-russian-town-northwest-of-moscow.html
Thanks again TTG. I read this about Budapest:
————–
https://t.me/rian_ru/261724
The office of the Budapest-registered BAC company, which Taiwanese Gold Apollo named as the manufacturer of the pagers that exploded in Lebanon, is empty, a RIA Novosti correspondent reports.
The company is registered in a residential area not far from the center of Budapest, with office space on the first floor and apartments on the second.
Residents say they have never seen anyone from BAC. A RIA Novosti correspondent was unable to reach the company by phone, and there was no response to a written request.
—————-
And this ..
https://t.me/rian_ru/261758
The Hungarian government has stated that a Budapest-registered company linked to the pager bombings in Lebanon was acting as an intermediary.
It does not have production facilities in Hungary itself, and the pagers were not located in the country, Budapest emphasizes.
————————-
And Attacks continue with devices other than pagers.
——-
https://t.me/infantmilitario/136474
Today, Hezbollah’s radios and car radios are exploding. The radios were acquired by Hezbollah about five months ago, around the same time as the pagers, Reuters quotes Channel 12 as saying.
———
Re Toropets — Telegram has several posts about how “the usual suspects” (RF MOD crooks) may have made off with the concrete that was supposed to fortify those ammunition bunkers. Tons of those guys are indicted and sitting in jails now including a dude who was literally Shoigu’s number 2 right hand man, a 3-star I think.
I understand that the technical details of what was done must appear to be very titillating – even “absolutely epic” – but I fail to see why detonating them now is anything other than … pointless.
I get that this would be an excellent ace up the IDF sleeve in times of a full-on knock-down/drag-out war between the two forces: detonate the pagers and then launch a ground assault.
But doing this now? What’s the point, exactly?
Yeah, Right,
I don’t understand the timing of this attack, either. Perhaps it is as you said that Hezbollah was getting suspicious of the pagers.
PS regarding Tver drone attack.
It’s only my guess and surmise but it looks like Putin’s announcement of increases to the Russian army has been interpreted in Washington and Westminster as weakness and an indication that he’s unwilling and/or unable to effectively retaliate against NATO in response to the much ballyhooed deep strikes into RF territory. Another indication of that is Dr Gilbert Doctorow’s walking back the the seriousness of Putin’s brief remarks given in a street interview recently. I only watched the first 3 minutes but that was sufficient.
Dr Gilbert Doctorow / Russia prepares for worst case scenario in Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/live/4hokL8dX5iQ
F&L – Doctorow can go off the deep end sometimes but not this time. He makes a point (very early on in the video you linked to) that I have not seen made elsewhere.
Any fool can give a proxy fancy missiles. But the targeting and routing of those missiles is beyond the capability of most.
For example, we in the UK are dependent on American ISR if the Storm Shadows are to be used effectively. Long range naval or aerial drone attacks similarly need American ISR if they are to evade Russian AD or other defensive measures, let alone the fact that Western Intel is probably needed to identify useful targets. From the little I’ve read on the subject Google Maps doesn’t cut it.
Even more so in the case of the Houthis. Doctorow makes the point that, never mind whether they have the expertise to even assemble “hypersonic” missiles without assistance, the Houthis do not have satellites up that can enable target identification and probably routing. If the Iranians do, it’s only with Russian assistance.
The list of countries that can do that is very short and Russia’s one of them. So it’s probably that in the Houthi missile attack we’re looking at an “asymmetrical response” of the sort all talk about.
In the Ukrainian case the Russians are anxious to keep the Ukrainian war local. If they decided to let it spread to Europe the range of asymmetrical responses at their disposal is very great. The poorly shielded Russian ammunition dump that’s just been droned has its counterpart in the UK and probably in the other European countries. Or Doctorow mentions the undersea cables. Or if we manage to hit one of their NPP’s and damage it significantly – that’s been tried for some time now – it’s easy enough for the Russians to hit one of ours.
Any amount of that type of response is possible before it would escalate to nuclear. In any case, apart from the Washington hotheads sounding off and that’s just noise, Washington has made it clear that it’s not prepared to risk nuclear if the Europeans themselves push it too far and invite retaliatory attacks.
Does that not also apply in the Israeli case? Washington, I believe, really doesn’t want a general ME war, let alone one where it would be compelled to use nuclear. Electoral pressures ensure that both Trump and Biden/Harris must supply arms and financial assistance to Israel, as do the European countries, but they don’t want it to go further than that.
The Ukrainians and the Europeans, and the Israelis, would like to see some sort of conflict escalation that would trigger forceful and direct US involvement in the respective conflicts. I don’t think they’re going to get it.
Therefore Netanyahu, Zelensky, and Scholz/Macron/Starmer have come to the end of the road. They can push their respective conflicts no further without the US coming in in force – and I think Washington won’t.
Can’t, in fact. Colonel Lang laid down the rules on that some time ago and they still hold. Russia and the US will not fight each other directly. Similarly, the US does not wish to see the Israeli conflict spreading to a full war in the ME.
So both the Europeans and the Israelis are, as said before, like sheep stuck in a bramble patch. Difficult for them to retreat – the loss of face for the politicians would be very great. Impossible for them to intensify the conflict – that can’t be done without getting the US to come in deeper and it seems that can’t happen.
Tragic that a whole lot more people are going to get killed or injured before the politicians reluctantly accept that conclusion. But the politicians have bitten off more than they can chew in both cases so they’ll have to accept it eventually.
EO,
Ukraine can do the targeting and routing of their own drones and missiles including Neptun and Hrim-2. The routing of either of those missiles nor the drones require satellites.They can’t do that for US missiles without our approval and help. You’re right that no one wants US aircraft taking direct part in Ukraine, either implementing a no fly zone or worse. That would mean a direct NATO-Russia war. As Ukraine improves its long range strike capability, US missiles will become less and less important.
EO, all I know is that the smart Russians who I see interviewed are almost screaming at the top of their lungs that it’s well past time for the authorities there to start taking this war more seriously. Are you aware of what happened in Toporets? That’s their largest ammunition warehouse – largest one of the largest country on earth, now up in smoke. How about the utterly disgraceful shootout at the Wildberries offices in Moscow near the Kremlin? It would be as if Jeff Bezos wife hired a rifle company to attack Amazon dot com’s headquarters so she could seize the company. It obviously doesn’t matter what’s written in international newspapers about long range missile firing permissions — you can paper your birdcages with them. Whoever hit Toporets with whatever munitions directed by whatever systems the point is it was a perfectly successful attack. More will come. And here’s the punchline in case you missed it — it took TTG 30 seconds of his time to compose a plausible text in response to you which explains, whether it’s true or not, that it wasn’t a US or NATO weapon and it wasn’t steered by the US or NATO geospatial resources. So Putin’s threats about NATO being at war with Russia don’t even apply! Your confidence in the Russian leadership baffles me.
F&L – most in the West don’t know the extent to which the Western powers enable these Ukrainian missile attacks, and that from way back. Yet it’s reported on in the Western press sometimes! Just that most don’t notice.
The Russians also believe the long range drone strikes need NATO assistance. Probably correct – we’re in a lot deeper than the politicians let on.
Going in a lot deeper if Stoltenberg has anything to do with it! The Euros are adding China to the list of the Forces of Evil Threatening The Rules Based International Order. The Germans, ultra-helpful Europoodles as ever, reported as sending a couple of frigates through the Taiwan Straits. Pistorius remaking innocently that it happened to be the shortest way through. If it weren’t that the Euros are still determinedly backing neo-Nazi mayhem they’d do for a comedy show.
Have now finished the Doctorow video you linked to. Seems he keeps a watchful eye on what the EU’s up to. At the end of the video, a virtuoso performance demonstrating how to remain super-polite whilst making it clear Mearsheimer’s talking bullshit.
But he spoils it all by asserting the “Deep State” is trying to assassinate Trump. Since you don’t believe in this mysterious “Deep State” and neither do I, that does rather detract from what is otherwise a most useful summary. Thanks for linking to it.
EO,
I guess I was unclear regarding my beliefs about a “deep state.” I don’t deny it’s existence, rather I lamented the laziness with which the term is thrown around and abused. Kindly accept my apologies.
EO,
Keep the war local?
I have been saying a few things for two years now and my conviction in those points only grows stronger.
1. Russia attacked Ukraine for understandable reasons but those are not the simple and silly reasons stated by fanboys and even sometimes by Putin himself (Nazis, NATO expansion, transvestites, etc.). Rather, Putin was responding to increasing forceful economic warfare being waged against Russia by the US and NATO (the Brits, specifically).
2. It became readily apparent to me that Russian war fighting ability stinks. Fan boys found solace in the notion that Putin is conducting a war of attrition. That’s exactly what a loser would say. I’ve been saying that if Russia doesn’t fully mobilize and take the war seriously, NATO/Ukraine will find ways to grow stronger and more threatening and Russia will lose. That is happening now.
3. By fighting lamely and keeping the war “local” Putin is not only guaranteeing, long term, a Russian loss assuming the current trajectory continues, he is also guaranteeing that a decision will have to be made by Russia; lose or escalate all the way to nuclear and/or hitting NATO targets in NATO countries, like Poland and Germany. A swift overwhelming victory – fighting war properly – in Ukraine would have given NATO pause. The Russia recapture of Ukraine would have been a fait accompli w/ Russia in the power seat. Dragging things out has given NATO encouragement and critical time to learn and build.
4. I have been saying that by dragging things out to the point where NATO/Ukraine is able to attack into Russia, Putin has set himself up for removal; perhaps to be replaced by someone more hardcore and more likely to go nuclear.
5. I have said that neither Russia nor NATO can accept a loss in this existential fight. That makes WW3 unavoidable. The only way out is if Trump – as a non-NATO club member – is elected and is able to negotiate. I think Trump will be assassinated or otherwise thwarted. Everyone else wants war and the spoils of the war that will go to a few wealthy interests.
6. Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah will take their beatings like dogs, other than non-existential terrorist attacks. It’s all they can do, given that they won’t give peace a chance. Hezbollah is not a formidable threat to Israel.
Eric – yes, keeping it local!
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/drones-hit-ammo-depot-in-russia-s-tver-region-1726896795.html
Local as in 16 km (9 miles) from Toporets. Toporets was hit twice, btw.
Eric if you use Telegram and it’s translation feature Go here and read the comments.
https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/62931
Or here:
https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/63032
As you can see, the Russians who have brains are not drinking the Kool aid either. Some sniff, some taste, others drink and believe it or not some swallow!
But not this guy (translated comment below link):
https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/62929?comment=5320835
There is nothing to comment on here. Should we get involved in a war with such bedlam? Uncle Vova, you are either a traitor for dragging a corrupt country, slagged with filth, into a war, or you are simply a person living in his own reality of fake reports. As usual, all the pain comes from carelessness, laziness, and traitors.
And definitely not this individual:
https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/62929?comment=5320825
In short, a massive NATO missile strike has taken place.
We’ve arrived. But for the population, it will be nothing but UAV strikes…
Otherwise, we’ll really have to do something.
And we don’t want to.
———————
The sickening beauty of it is that they did the Toporets missile (not drone) strike (twice, followed by a strike the next day in Tikhorets, and then this one at Oktyabrsky in the Tver region, where nuclear weapons are held) at the same time and immediately after the faux “long range missile permissions” were being “discussed” between Saint Armer (Starmer) and Biden. Permissions which were “not given.” Nope, obviously not given.
Eric:
“the spoils of the war”?
You might want to read at least Wikipedia’s summary of this book:
Nuclear War: A Scenario>/I>
by Annie Jacobsen
https://g.co/kgs/B8JSg9Z
Sounds pretty grim
But hey, let’s use more American weapons and manpower to attack Russia.
How close to the edge of the cliff can we walk?
Supply chain attacks happen regularly in the cyber realm. The only difference with this one is the introduction of explosives.
Brief video of pager exploding in a Lebanese market. State terrorism.
https://t.me/logikamarkova/14021
So pagers exploded, in the market, with a threat to ordinary people. I am saying – terrorist attacks are becoming a common type of weapon that states use. But they do it through their proxies.
Wow, would hate to have one of those pagers in my front pocket. Instant free gender reassignment surgery, which appears to have happened to the guy in the market.
Over 3,000 casualties. Lebanese news is saying that the pagers were hacked in a way that made the lithium batteries explode. Some people felt their pagers heating up severely and threw them before they exploded. So there’s a clue.
So there you are on that e-scooter you just rented on the sunny streets of tourist town X when Kablewy! I wonder who might have done that? Or the city bus. Or your BYD e-car. Lots of potential bombs out there. Better go back to gas and diesel and bikes with pedals.
Now that is clever. This was not a bug, it’s a feature. Of course the next thing to do is offer to replace them under warranty…
I guess we will all get to see the detail soon enough, there must be an unexploded one for someone to dissect somewhere.
Experts may be able to tell us how big a charge was necessary.
This airplane story could.be spurious but it’s interesting. Map at link. In other news the number of wounded is over 4,000 now, number of dead is 11 so far with over 400 in critical condition. Reports are coming in of pager explosions in Syria.
————————————
https://t.me/infantmilitario/136357
It is significant that yesterday a rare US Air Force EC-130H Compass Call (electronic warfare) aircraft was spotted off the coast of Lebanon.
The EC-130H can disrupt enemy command and control communications, conduct offensive counter-information operations, and carry out other types of electronic attacks.
The EC-130H is equipped with hardware and software that enables hacking wireless devices and much more.
—————
Photo of a pager used in the attack at link. There are theories that Israel (or whoever perpetrated the attacks) may have modified the pagers at the Taiwan factory where they were produced. 20 gms of explosive is said to have been inserted
https://t.me/infantmilitario/136394
Experts quoted by the Washington Post say it is unlikely that the pager explosions were caused by a cyberattack, and they appear to have been rigged with remotely activated explosives.
It’s a pretty big operation to carry out and not follow up with an invasion of Lebanon.
James,
Well it’s a good way to map networks. You know where the explosions occurred and who blew up. I note some Iranians and Syrians in the mix. I’m sure it wasn’t just any pager exploding. Rather, militants’ pagers. So, in addition to denying a means of comms to the enemy, enemies have been taken out (some are alive, but won’t be reproducing) and the extent of networks are known. On top of that, there is a big psychological impact on the enemy; a demoralizing. That’s a lot right there. Doesn’t have to lead to an invasion.
Possibly.
James
It was probably a “use it or lose it” type of situation.
I wonder what other surprises there are in store for hez since 2014.
One thing I know for sure s.lebanon has great potential with its small villages and farms,great restaurants,access to the sea and the ski slopes.Has great tourist potential.Hez and their leadership need to let the Lebanese breath.Bring back the Beirut of old.The money from gas is there to do it.
Europeans need a holiday destination and what a better spot than Eastern Mediterranean with its gracious people and good quality hashish.
With the Levant fault line wanting to expand would be good time to avoid high rises around central Lebanon.Asteroid and full moon clashing,it’s a witches brew.
I wonder what other surprises there are in store for hez since 2014.
??????
There were in store since 2014? Some that we did not hear about?
John,
I can well believe that. I see three possibilities:
– it was a “use it or lose it” situation in which it was feared that the operation was about to be uncovered and the pagers were about to be discarded
– Bibi wants a war and he was trying to force the hand of reluctant military that does not want to go into Lebanon right now
– Bibi only cares about himself and did it for his own short term political gain
Israeli media is reporting that Hezbollah was getting suspicious of these pagers (how? why? not mentioned) so a decision was made to detonate these rather than waste the opportunity. Use it or lose it.
The original intention was to keep this as an ace-in-the-hole should there be a full-on war, though now it might be the precipitator of war between the IDF and Hezbollah.
Not sure if I believe that but, heh, that’s what the Israeli press are running with.
Suspicions have been raised by reports of American University of Beirut being warned over a week ahead of the attack to disable its pager devices used by medical staff.
https://x.com/partisangirl/status/1836088534203318699
The pagers of all doctors and nurses were targeted. With one exception, the AMERICAN University of Beirut hospital that asked staff to replace their pagers ten days ago.
F&L,
I wouldn’t be surprised if Mossad managed to get a cryptic warning to the US or at least to the hospital.
Sick past belief.
Just a bunch of “human shields” I guess…
EO did you ever read the Old Testament? It’s full of devious and monstrously dirty tricks. This had me thinking of the deception by which Jacob’s sons castrate and murder the men of Schechem for the alleged “rape” of his daughter Dinah. That Dinah was probably a teenager/woman of low morals whose infelicitied were instrumentalized for purposes of war is evident from the various translations of different sections of Genesis. Simplified version: She stole daddy’s T-bird and had fun fun fun in the drive-in theater of the next town. For which an entire tribe’s males had their balls and heads cut off.
Interesting because “honey pot” traps by the Mossad are well known. When you look at the IDF “chick flicks” on social media it is clear they have never had issue using their women for sex as long as it help their goals.
F&L – in the old Anglican Church I was brought up in they regarded the Old Testament as mostly allegorical. Guess they got it wrong.
Mossad killed a terrorist in 1996 with an explosive cell phone. You think Hamas would have been more careful with the pagers by dismantling one.
https://www.tampabay.com/archive/1996/01/06/exploding-phone-kills-car-bomber/
Hezbollah, not Hamas.
But it’s hard to know how many pagers Hezbollah purchased, versus how many exploded: maybe only a minority of them were intercepted and tampered with, maybe all of them were.
The low number of fatalities suggests a very small amount of explosives, which would have been easier to disguise as a genuine part.
But, really, hard to see this as anything other than as a propaganda exercise.
After all, the end result is that a large number of Hezbollah militants will now go into battle sporting scars of various intensity. Maybe even missing a digit.
Seems to me that unless this is the prelude to a wider war of Israel’s making this is little more than a titillating bit of mischief making.
My mistake’
Look at the photo of Raisi sitting next to a table on which lies a pager (1). Possibly a doctored image. Also item (2). Translations pasted under links as usual.
1:
https://t.me/infantmilitario/136451
The fact that the late Iranian President Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash several months ago, was seen carrying a pager has increased suspicions that the helicopter was shot down by Israel
—————
2:
https://t.me/infantmilitario/136463
A report in the Saudi newspaper Al-Hadat, which has not been confirmed by another source, states that 19 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed and 150 were injured in a pager explosion yesterday in Deir ez-Zor province in eastern Syria.
This was clever, but a dumb move. Add it to a pile of dumb moves by Israel. Funny they think the Palestinians are dumb.
a dumb move from many perspectives – unless Israel plans on invading Lebanon this week. hell of a method to blow for anything else.
There’s reports and videos of explosions going off in the midst of funeral processions for fallen Hezbollah members today. A variant of the “double-tap.” These weren’t necessarily planned in advance but they certainly might have been. Cars radios and other devices, not pagers — photos of automobiles on fire in Beirut etc.
Meanwhile in Springfield the facts are exploding in silence:
https://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/7909_Springfield-City-Responsive-records-1.pdf
Apparently there were calls about cats being stolen and chopped up. Eaten though? Better shout Racist! to deflect from the news.
Also, did you hear about the SECOND assassination attempt on Trump? DARVO is going to happen in…..
Fred,
It’s hardly a novel concept. A Chinese restaurant here in Tucson was busted and shut down by the department of health when I lived here previously. Maybe 25 years ago. They were regularly killing cats and serving them as chicken meat in the daily lunch buffet. It was all over the news. Skinned cats were found in the meat locker.
The whole brew up over Springfield is just a pack of liberal disingenuous, fake moral posturing, twits trying to score political points; as most discussions are these days.
You racist!!!!
We need to learn to ignore the twits. They are not serious, don’t practice or believe the crap they say and are, in fact, devious low-grade manipulators, and should be treated as such
Eric a student of mine whose family owned a chain of Chinese restaurants in NYC told me years ago that serving cats is a common practice. I asked him what menu items to avoid. He said the “medley” items like “Threefold Happy Fruits of Land and Sea,”
etc. NY cops were eternally busting guys in Chinatown who kidnapped cats.
F&L,
Exactly. But not the Haitians! Oh no never! Especially because Trump said it.
To bring this side bar back on topic, cat fanciers need to take a page out of the Israeli playbook. Get some cats slated to be euthanized at the pound. Give them lithium battery + compressed gun powder charged collars, perhaps just use some of surplus Lebanese pagers disguised as designer collars, with a GPS chip – or better yet a micro video device.
Release the cats into Haitian populated neighborhoods in places like Springfield. Track them. Once the collar is removed and in Haitian hands; BOOM!
Also, the all cell phones that given to illegals. They don’t appear for their farcical asylum hearing? BOOM!
Man, the applications for this methodology are almost limitless.
I wonder if the explosive copies were made and at some point exchanged for the ordered ones? It would seem to hard to remake the real ones in transit. The targets were chosen by terrorists, so that made sense to the folks in charge. There may have been some collateral damage, but most injuries were chosen by their leadership.
Instead of Israel ‘inserting itself into the supply chain’, it seems that Mossad actually owned the Budapest factory that produced these pagers under license from a Taiwan Company:
https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/09/18/did-israel-use-this-hungarian-company-for-its-alleged-hezbollah-pager-bombs/
Nasrallah, apparently unharmed, will speak today. His aide though probably has a gaping hip wound.
Hezbollah’s tech and logistics guys are in trouble. Sourcing from such a dodgy company in Hungary and then never checking the kit is criminal. (https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/09/18/did-israel-use-this-hungarian-company-for-its-alleged-hezbollah-pager-bombs/).
Wunduk,
If the explosives were inside of sealed batteries it would be difficult to “check the kit”. And I will go ahead and just say it – they are Arabs, not the most methodical people in the world. More methodical than other Arabs but not as methodical as, say, Israelis.
I should have been more clear. I think Hezbollah is methodical enough to have checked the kit, but not methodical enough to have looked inside sealed batteries.
I’m genuinely curious about the response to this news.
If Hezbollah had done this to, say, IDF reservists by blowing up their cell phones then what would the reaction be?
To my mind there would be no question: such an act would be regarded as a horrendous terrorist attack worthy of the most terrifying act of vengeance, and anyone arguing otherwise would be instantly howled down.
Yet because the shoe is on the other foot this is regarded as an act of daring-do worthy of the greatest admiration even though – and I’m being completely honest here – I can’t really see any difference between those two scenarios: reservist forces attacked at a time when they have not been called up for active duty and are therefore not legitimate targets for attack.
Yeah, Right,
I agree. There would be no difference if Hezbollah carried out the attack.
But that’s the point, TTG. If Hezbollah had carried out an equivalent attack against Israeli reservists there would be universal outpouring of revulsion and shouts of “Terrorism! Terrorism, I tell you!!!!”.
But because it is Israel doing it there is much clapping and cries of “Well, done, you clever chaps!”
Yeah, Right,
I can’t argue with that. It is a double standard, but I think it would be clever no matter who did it. If Hezbollah did it to Israel, the Chinese did it to us or the Russians did it to the Ukrainians, it would still be an impressive operation.
It’s “clever” to disguise an explosive booby-trap as a harmless commercial product?
I don’t believe that is the correct word.
True “criminal”.
Cluster munitions are not illegal, per se. But disguising the sub-munitions as harmless products definitely is.
How is this Amy different from that?
TTG: “If Hezbollah did it to Israel, the Chinese did it to us or the Russians did it to the Ukrainians,”…
But that is the point: they DON’T do that.
They DON’T disguise their weapons of war as harmless products that can be safely carried as you go about your daily business.
Terrorists do that. Israel also does that.
So what does that tell you about the State of Israel?
Caitlin Johnsone said it best: Israel is just…icky.
Yeah, Right,
In Viet Nam we routinely replaced ammunition in NVA ammo caches with explosive-laden rounds. Those rounds would blow up in NVA rifles. That was a battlefield level supply chain operation with lethal consequences.
That “harmless commercial product” was an integral part of the Hezbollah communications network. It was a targeted attack against a legitimate military target. It wasn’t perfect. Some innocent civilians were killed and maimed. If there’s something to argue about it’s the level of collateral damage that the Israelis find acceptable.
TTG: “That “harmless commercial product” was an integral part of the Hezbollah communications network.”
Hezbollah is a provider of basic services to the civilians of Lebanon south of the Litani River.
Those pagers were not simply a battlefield “communications network”, any more than the mobile phones being toted around by IDF reservists even though – just like these pagers – an IDF reservist would expect to receive a call-up for active duty via an SMS message on his phone.
I’m sorry, but your argument does NOT hold water, and you anecdote is not an equivalent.
Look at those videos that have been posted on X – which I’m sure you have seen – of pagers exploding in the pockets of men browsing in the fruit and vegetable stalls in a market, or waiting at the checkout of their local supermarket.
Those are NOT soldiers on active duty and are therefore NOT legitimate targets for attack.
There is a fundamental principle of international humanitarian law that you appear to gloss over completely, and it is this: when does an individual move from being a “protected person” under IHL and become instead a “combatant”.
A reservist in an army – any army – is still a “protected person” until they are called up for active duty and present for mobilization.
These people who were attacked by the IDF were not on active duty. They had not been called up.
They were going about their normal, everyday civilian activities – as ALL reservists do – and until that changes then they are not legitimate targets for attack. Yet the Israelis attacked them anyway.
I accept that once they are called up for active duty and have donned their uniforms and are engaged in warfare against the IDF then, yes indeed, they become legitimate targets for the Israeli military.
But they weren’t, so they aren’t, yet the Israelis attacked them anyway.
That’s “terrorism”, plain and simple.
Good grief, according to your definition any and all attacks that have been made against any Israeli of military age – excluding the Haredi and the Israeli arabs – has always been perfectly legitimate.
Because – excluding those two groups – they are all reservists in the IDF.
Now to my mind they are not legitimate targets for attack, and so until they get called up for service then attacking them is “terrorism”.
Yet you seem to be incredibly blaise when the Israelis do the same which, I suppose, is a good illustration of how much the Israelis have desensitized so many people towards their repeated acts of bastardry.
Yeah, Right,
You show a lack of imagination and a naïveté concerning the dark art of war. This strike against Hezbollah caused far less collateral damage than the indiscriminate bombing of Gaza. It was far more targeted than Russian missile strikes in Ukraine or almost all airstrikes conducted by any country. Only a very few of these pager bombs took out innocent bystanders when they went off, far less than a drone strike, a car bomb or a suicide vest.
Yeah Right,
Fear not. There’s chance of someone working on a container ship looking through the cargo manifest to see which load should be opened and modified before the product appears at an USAR center or any other DOD facility (or any other country’s). Likewise nobody at a U-Break-I-Fix joint would modify some sailor gal’s (or guy’s) phone/tablet/laptop (well maybe Hunter’s Russia Collusion one, wink wink) so that when the right message gets sent…. See the latest from the DEI fleet elite:
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/navy-officer-demoted-after-installing-unauthorized-satellite-dish-113471183
TTG, your entire “rebuttal” was a straw-man argument. It completely failed to address my point, which is that every video we see of these pagers going off shows Hezbollah reservists going about their civilian business when they were attacked.
And, once more, yet again, because this never gets old: An army reservist who HASN’T been called up for active duty is a civilian.
They don’t cease to be a civilian unless/until they are called up for active duty and front up to their mobilization point.
Is that correct, or is that false?
Because I’m saying – once more – that this is correct: an army reservist who hasn’t been mobilized is a CIVILIAN.
And repeat after me, people: A civilian is a “protected person” under international humanitarian law, and therefore is not a legitimate target for attack.
Your argument continues to start in the middle – how “clever” the attack is – without first answering the initial question: is Israel attacking a legitimate military target?
And the answer is “no”.
A Hezbollah reservist going about his grocery shopping is not a legitimate military target, any more than an Israeli reservist doing likewise.
A Hezbollah reservist standing in line at the supermarket checkout is not a legitimate military target, any more than an Israeli reservist doing the same thing.
It is the VERY ACT of being called up that changes the status of a reservist from “civilian” to “combatant”, and none of these victims that we see in those videos fit that category.
You need to rebut THAT point, otherwise your rebuttals will continue to be pointless.
Yeah, Right,
There are a little less than 3,000 casualties from this pager attack. Those casualties were carrying Hezbollah communication devices. That’s 3,000 out of a strength of 20,000 active and another 20,000 reserve Hezbollah fighters. Leaders and other key personnel would be carrying those pagers, not the low level fighters, active or reserve. They are certainly not civilians.
As a active duty officer, I spent a lot of time shopping in marketplaces in civilian clothes. Hezbollah fighters do the same. They are still Hezbollah fighters and contribute to the strength of Hezbollah. Neutralization of those fighters offers a definite military advantage to Israel, especially since the two are currently engaged in combat. That makes this a legitimate attack in my view, especially since true civilian casualties were limited and damage to civilian infrastructure was also limited.
TTG: “There are a little less than 3,000 casualties from this pager attack.”
The scope of the attack is completely and utterly irrelevant if the object of the attack is not a legitimate military target.
An example: A lone knife attack on an Israeli civilian is as much an act of terrorism as is a mass attack on an Israeli rave party.
Correct?
TTG: “Those casualties were carrying Hezbollah communication devices.”
Again, that is completely and utterly irrelevant.
An Israeli civilian who is an IDF reservist is carrying a mobile phone, and would expect to receive an order to report for active duty via an SMS message.
Correct?
So why is it any different AT ALL if Hezbollah tells its reservists to not bother with mobile phones, here, take this pager instead?
Answer: it is no different at all.
TTG: “That’s 3,000 out of a strength of 20,000 active and another 20,000 reserve Hezbollah fighters.”
Both you and I have no idea – none whatsoever – how many pagers Hezbollah has distributed to its military staff, civilian and political staff, and reservists.
For all that you and I know they have distributed 40,000 of the damn things. Handed them out like confetti.
TTG: “Leaders and other key personnel would be carrying those pagers, not the low level fighters, active or reserve.”
A completely baseless assumption, precisely because you can not possibly know how many pagers have been distributed by Hezbollah.
WE DO KNOW that Israel managed to infiltrate the distribution chain responsible for the supply of 5,000 pagers.
WE DO NOT KNOW what percentage that represents of the total number of pagers in
Hezbollah’s inventory.
It could be that these are the total number of pagers that Hezbollah has purchased. It could also be that this represents only 1/8th of the total inventory i.e. Hezbollah bought 40,000 of the damn things and handed them out to anyone and everyone.
You do not know the answer to that, nor do I.
But what I do know and which you repeatedly fail to acknowledge is that there is video evidence out that there that pagers were in possession of Lebanese men going about their innocent daily civilian lives.
TTG: “As a active duty officer, I spent a lot of time shopping in marketplaces in civilian clothes.”
Good for you. At least that is something that you do know for a fact.
TTG: “Hezbollah fighters do the same.”
And there you go, spoiling it.
That is something that you do not know for a fact, but are merely assuming because it fits your chosen narrative.
TTG: “They are still Hezbollah fighters and contribute to the strength of Hezbollah.”
Annnnnd, back we go to the very beginning, a very good place to start.
You simply assume that they are “Hezbollah fighters”, while I am suggesting that they are “Hezbollah reservists”.
And, once again, the question that you refuse to address: is an army reservist a civilian, or is he a combatant?
The rules of war are very clear on this issue: a civilian who is in the army reserve is a CIVILIAN until such time as they are called up.
As you yourself said: “As a active duty officer,”…
You have to *be* an “active duty officer” for your argument to have any traction, and you have provided zero evidence other than your own narrative desires that this is indeed the case.
I say that they are not, based upon THE VIDEO EVIDENCE THAT IS OUT THERE FOR ALL TO SEE.
Look, this is a simple thing to resolve: if we find out that Hezbollah has distributed 40,000 pagers – i.e. handed them out to everyone – then will you concede that my argument has merit?
Because I’ll tell now: if we find out that those 5,000 boody-trapped pagers represent all the pagers that Hezbollah possess then I will concede that your argument has merit.
Agreed?
Yeah, Right,
See mcohen’s comment on Hezbollah Intelligence estimate of casualties “as a result of the infiltration and explosion of its internal communication network.” If this report is valid, Hezbollah acknowledges it was an attack on their internal communications network. The men operating that communication network were near exclusively Hezbollah fighters who do spend a great deal of their time among the Lebanese population. That’s how they operate within Lebanon.
If Hezbollah did hand out 40,000 pagers and we discover thousands more civilian casualties, then your argument does indeed have merit and this operation is little more than an act of Israeli state terrorism.
TTG,
“Leaders and other key personnel would be carrying those pagers, not the low level fighters, active or reserve. They are certainly not civilians”
We don’t know how many victims were fighters and how many were civillians.
I recall reading there was report that some hospital personnels were told to change their pagers about a few days (or a week) before the pagers attack.
One thing we can be certain is that the Israelis do not care how many civillians will be killed or maimed.
TonyL,
“One thing we can be certain is that the Israelis do not care how many civilians will be killed or maimed.”
Given their conduct in Gaza, that much is true.
TTG,
No one will go after “true civilian(s)” inside the US because our pager network is secure and the millions of immigrants crossing our border are ‘extreme vetted’ and even more loyal than those people who were born here. We have nothing to fear from anyone we’ve been bombing in the “war on terror”.
Hungary doesn’t might being the location of the weapons builders either. Nothing will be done by member of the ‘religion of peace’ in Hungary. Nor will Taiwan worry about the impact of their licensed manufacturing having been a fraudulent shell company engaged in weapons development and construction. But it was a brilliant op. Like Market Garden.
I’m sure people in Lebanon will now flee from association with Hezbollah and just love to make peace with the Jewish State of Israel. Can we expect a Nobel Prize for Biden before he leaves office or will Kamala be the one to bring her “I was raised in a middle class family” efforts to bear in the Levant?
TTG: “See mcohen’s comment on Hezbollah Intelligence estimate of casualties “as a result of the infiltration and explosion of its internal communication network.” ”
This is what mcohen said: “An internal Hezbollah document from the office of the head of the organization’s military intelligence division was leaked.”
Really?
I’m willing to lay down a marker now and say that this “internal Hezbollah document” is about as authentic as a three-dollar bill
Yeah, Right,
During his speech, Nasrallah explained that the exploded pages were those distributed to lower ranking members while the leaders didn’t use the model. I thought it would be the other way around, but that was wrong according to Nasrallah.
TTG: “The men operating that communication network were near exclusively Hezbollah fighters who do spend a great deal of their time among the Lebanese population.”
Ahem, not according to that “leaked Hezbollah internal document”, since it lists the 879 dead (!!) as including 131 Iranians and 79 Yemenis.
So, no, not so “exclusive”.
Some times it pays to actually read the guff that you refer to.
TTG: “If Hezbollah did hand out 40,000 pagers and we discover thousands more civilian casualties”
I get weary of pointing this out, but if I am correct in saying that the pagers are overwhelmingly carried by reservists in the Hezbollah militia then there is no need to “discover thousands more civilian casualties”, because the overwhelming majority of the existing and already-acknowledged casualties are themselves civilians.
Yeah, Right,
Nasrallah also said many of those killed and injured were members of the Hezbollah’s military units and institutions. He didn’t talk about the killed and injured Lebanese civilians, only that the attacks on his people endangered civilians due to their proximity to the civilians. The attacked were his people, not civilians.
YR,
Israel has, for decades, carried out thousands of actions that would be deemed terrorism and violations of international if done by anyone else. Literally letting them get away with murder.
This is how today they can kill tens of thousands of women and children and the entire world sits and does nothing. Imagine if the Lebanese had invaded Israel in response to the IDF occupation of Lebanon in the 1980s and killed tens of thousands of Israeli women and children? Likely the US, UK and others would have put boots on the ground to stop it.
Instead the west sends the weapons used to kill even more women and children.
Stefan,
For decades the West and the UN funded Palestinians while they built a just, verdant and peaceful paradise in Gaza and the West Bank. Except for the bunkers, tunnels, and estates in Qatar, and all that other stuff. I’m sure they’re sorry about all the kidnappings on October 7th. They gave up their human shields, I mean kidnapped civilians, right away, didn’t they?
Aside from the two children killed so far in this operation it seems to have been an ingenious success. No parties in the Middle East mind killing children, so I dont think the possibility was ever a concern.
A huge success for the Israelis. Hizb’Allah, in holding off any major response since October 7th, is in danger of putting itself into a situation where it is unable to respond.
Like with the Palestinians, Irish and other anti-colonialist movements, touts and grasses are one of the biggest worries. But really……you are buying thousands of these pagers and it doesnt occur to you to open multiple random pagers to look for anything out of the ordinary? Common sense to me…..
Was the force of the explosion disproportionate to the known cases of lithium ion battery explosions? If the batteries themselves were the explosive,triggered by some creative code in the controller, then no amount of quality control would have detected the problem ahead of time. Even the manufacturer could have produced mini bombs without knowing it. I have seen only one consideration of this so far:
https://www.reddit.com/r/LinusTechTips/comments/1fj4i4a/can_a_liion_battery_be_made_to_explode_via/
fredw,
These batteries burn rather than explode. It does appear that the batteries were modified with explosive material.
All,
Appears this was not just a one off operation. Radios are now exploding across Beirut and Southern Lebanon.
This idea was cooked up before Oct-7.
TTG,
Sure hope we are walking the dogs past our electronics just to be sure.
Don’t fret Fred, Remy is on the case!
Meet Remy, one of just 100 Cyber dogs in the USA.
https://tinyurl.com/56axcjzh
Yeah, it’s a good thing that the Pentagon has such an airtight and well-audited Purchasing Department… /s
Photo of ICOM gadget at link.
https://t.me/svezhesti/116332
The main communications devices that exploded today were ICOM radios, with Lebanese media reporting that the scale of the attack today was larger but the explosions were smaller than yesterday’s pager explosions
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s Health Ministry has confirmed 9 deaths and more than 300 wounded in today’s explosions.
How many blew up here or in Europe?
The geniuses actually filmed and published on the interstate the dedication ceremony of the improved arsenal protection in 2018 at Toporets. I’ve pasted a translation of a particularly bitter but justified comment below. Russian media consistently still attributes the huge destruction as being due to “fallen drone debris.” Unreal. And they report zero casualties.
Famous quote: “Russia cannot be understood with the mind.”
https://t.me/slavaded1337/59375?comment=9236576
In Toropets last night the enemy blew up the largest arsenal of missiles of the Russian Armed Forces. How much more lies and mistakes can we make? How many times have we heard that it’s enough to panic, enough to write something, enough to blame the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff – the war is going on. So really, those who sit with calm faces and watch the explosions that look like a mushroom, at least panic a little there, THE WAR IS ON, and we have one fuck-up after another.
It is no longer possible to regard all this as the surrender of the country by an internal enemy. Yesterday the DPR reported that there was another formation and an arrival there, our servicemen were killed.
Back in 2018, Bulgakov said that in Toropets there was only a utility block for 200 servicemen. How many of ours died there, and judging by the explosions and footage – nothing was left of the bodies.
They are lying and wrong. They are lying and wrong. How much longer, guys? Have your brains and consciences been completely tainted?
Moreover, the authorities started lying right away, trying to cover up the topic. CONCEAL the explosion of the largest arsenal of shells:
1. The arsenal for the complex storage of missiles, ammunition and explosives, which meets the “highest world standards,” was destroyed by a UAV fragment. That’s exactly what the authorities reported in the media.
2. Rudenya said that the fire was under control. Fire? Under control? How can you control the detonation of missiles? And that hell on earth is a fire?
The arsenal was launched in 2018. Several billion rubles were spent on it, according to Deputy Minister Bulgakov (now ex-minister and sitting in jail), it is simply unique in the world, since “the arsenal allows you to hide stockpiles of missiles and ammunition from external influences and ensure their safety and explosion and fire safety. The full load of each arsenal storage facility is up to 240 tons.”
And the truth is this:
– Most likely, they built an arsenal out of shit and sticks, the allocated funds were embezzled, the estimates were adjusted;
– They exposed the location of the arsenal in the media with their PR;
– The exact location of the Arsenal was recorded on Yandex.Maps;
– In fact, there was no increased security or transportation of shells due to the proximity to the border.
It was the third year of the SVO, and the idiocy was stable:
1. Formations in full view of the enemy continue
2. Driving in columns without a distance continues
3. Storing all the shells in one place in full view of the enemy, both at the LBS and in the rear, continues.
4. Filming and publishing photos and videos confirming their hits for the hohols, continues.
5. Helicopters and planes are hidden in foil hangars, or not hidden at all.
6. There is no discipline, no unity of command.
Everything that has happened in the last few years in the Ministry of Defense is a growing soap bubble. And now it has burst and the explosion from it is a nuclear mushroom. Belousov, of course, inherited such a legacy… He has to rebuild everything from scratch, the mechanism of the system there is already completely non-functional.
———————-
To better understand check out the video clip here. Text below link.
https://t.me/slavaded1337/59339
Tver region. Archive video.
June 2, 2018. TASS. An arsenal for storing missiles and ammunition is being built in Toropets according to world standards, said Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Dmitry Bulgakov: “The arsenal in Toropets allows us to protect stockpiles of missiles and ammunition from external influences and ensure their safety and explosion and fire safety. The full load of each arsenal storage facility is up to 240 tons.”
Deputy Defense Minister General Dmitry Bulgakov was arrested in July 2024 in a corruption case; he was responsible for logistics and served as Deputy Defense Minister from 2008 to September 2022.
Unbelievable.Clearly an indication that there is a growing divide within Russian military ranks.I would say that the time is time for a decisive black Swan event.
F&L –
Latest info on Toropets:
Ammunition train of 50 plus cars obliterated,
78 ammo warehouses destroyed,
51 damaged,
only 11 clearly undamaged.
https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1837166280563953968
https://x.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1836982763427164377
leith –
Right. High precision debris can ruin your day.
I’m too lazy to find the links but did you know that the Ammo warehouses in Tikhorets that went kaboom were storing munitions from the DPRK? They tracked to all the way from North Korea.
Short video at link below of former Wagner base going sky high. As you can see Sergei Markov is forlorn.
——————————–
https://t.me/logikamarkova/14061
The Ukrainian Armed Forces and Zelensky still hate and fear the Wagners. Wagner is no more, neither more nor less, but they are still trying to take revenge on it – they struck the headquarters of the former Wagner base in Goryachy Klyuch, on the road from Krasnodar to Dzhubga and Tuapse and Gelendzhik. Now it is allegedly the headquarters of the African Corps of the Russian Ministry of Defense. There are no statements from the Russian side yet. But nothing, probably by the beginning and by the middle of October everyone will say clearly, officially. True, on what occasion – everyone will forget a little. Oh well, we are harnessing endlessly slowly.
From AP – via Yahoo News – this morning, Yoav Gallant (Israeli Defense Minister) said:
“We are at a new stage of the war” and “the center of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces.”
IMO, this increases the likelihood that the pager (and walkie-talkie) explosions were intentionally timed as first stages of an IDF attack on Lebanon. OTOH, it’s still quite possible that the pager attack was triggered earlier than planned, and that the IDF is now hurrying to take the next steps. Either way, I expect much bigger news on that front within a few days.
In any case, Netanyahu probably thinks that Israel has to attack Lebanon *before* the US Presidential election. Until Election Day, Biden has to stick with “unconditional support for Israel” with the exception of occasional tut-tutting about civilian casualties in Gaza. After the election – no matter who wins! – Biden becomes a Lame Duck and can do whatever he wants.
Biden has been a strong “Friend of Israel” throughout his [very] long political career, but he doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who would easily forgive or forget the way Netanyahu has treated him, the Presidency, the Democratic Party, and the USA. IMO, Biden Unchained is likely to say out loud exactly what he thinks of Bibi, and it probably won’t be “fit to print” in the NYT.
More importantly, a lame-duck Biden could shut down the pipeline of US military and financial support for Israel, and even a temporary halt (perhaps reversed after Inauguration Day?) would cause real problems for Bibi & Israel. Even if he doesn’t go that far, Biden would be unlikely to cooperate with any new War Plans Bibi has in mind for us.
elkern,
It does now seem all these exploding devices are leading to something bigger.
Possibly the formation of a buffer zone and a return of residents to the north.Obviously N U approved.
Definitely nothing beyond the litani river.imho
David Wurmser, partner with Caroline Glick on her JNS podcast —
“How do you defeat someone who doesn’t mind dying? You can’t defeat a suicide bomber by killing . . . the only thing is, you have to take land; humiliate them and take land”
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ep-110-david-wurmser-the-coming-kamala-calamity-israel/id1622355269?i=1000664756051
IDF tanks are reportedly massing near the northern border.
Similar to statements of Ron Dermer that Alastair Crooke reported: “Dermer said the Iraq war to destroy Saddam was an object lesson to Palestinians: they revered Saddam, so he had to be destroyed, to humiliate Palestinians. . . . destruction of Japan and Germany brought about “transformative deradicalization” of those peoples. there’s no peace without this
deradicalization of the Palestinians, they have to be totally pacified. there’s no peace no future for Israel without this
transformative deradicalization taking place. ”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uy6KVHRB30
Off topic but too interesting not to share. A 54 minute documentary. Much of it will be familiar but the material on the GRU and KGB spies who infiltrated the White House was news to me at least. One guy in particular who died in 1989 whose name is pronounced (to my ears) as “Borchakov” but is spelled “Bulgakov” in the subtitles. The closing minutes are the most interesting things I’ve ever read on the missile crisis and Dallas. My own uniquely personal take on Dallas was and still is that sad to say, Kennedy had to go. Col Lang intimated to me rather cryptically a few years ago that I might have been correct. Fascinating stuff, far above the usual two-bit drivel on offer regarding the entire subject. There remain 40 letters between Kennedy and Krushchev which are classified, only 5 have been made public. It closes by revealing that JFK very quickly betrayed his promise to Krushchev to cease and desist from efforts to invade / destabilize / or interfere with Cuba. By early 1963 he was back at it. I can see why our guys decided to do him in but I can’t prove it.
The Hidden Side of the Kennedys.
https://youtu.be/gvkE7zlJgCg
Might have unintended consequences. Now that Israelis have mass produced weaponised electronic goods, why would anyone buy an Israeli made electronic item now if they have other options? If they have been weaponised surely they have also been modified to act as tracking and listening devices as well. Might cause issues for Israeli companies operating abroad too if the Israeli government are using foreign based companies to attack and murder thousands of people, including women and children.
Stefan – the causes of Prigozhin’s plane explosion need reconsideration in light of these electronic device attacks.
Stefan
Not just Israeli tech. This latest example of Western tech weaponization demonstrates to the rest of the world that if they want to have any semblance of sovereignty they need to have alternatives in many fields.
If you are China or Russia or India, Turkey, Brazil etc you need identify and have a reliable supply of every critical technology.
A monumental endeavour, likely to take a decade or two.
Service departments staffed with specialists will have disassemble and check all electronic devices. It will add significantly to costs.
Pandora’s box has been opened.
John,
Every country, not just China, Russia or India, has to pay more attention to the supply chains for their critical technology. Why do you think the US is leery of Chinese DJI drones or even Tik Tok. At least we don’t suspect those drones of being packed with explosives, but we do suspect them of espionage. Russia ought to rethink their smuggling of Western chips for her weapons. Those chips may not explode, but they can be made to deliberately malfunction. No one pays enough attention to supply chain security.
TTG
Yes, and as the recent Crowdstrike incident demonstrated, it doesn’t even have to be an intentional, malicious attack.
John,
The recent ‘every single computer CrowdStrike secured’ “incident” is an excuse to erase all the data (while manually) that might be subject to oversight. Rather convenient. I’m sure that’s just a conspiracy theory though. CrowdStrike is full of IT experts. I mean the DNC hired them to copy all that info to give the FBI rather than let the FBI do it. What can be more expert than that.
Fred,
No one had to erase data to fix the CrowdStrike screw up.
TTG,
They have cover if they have done the equivalent of Hilary’s bleach it efforts.
Fred,
Why would anybody need cover for that? It’s easy to just wipe the drives or destroy them and claim they died.
TTG,
Of course, like Hilary did. or Mueller’s crack legal team. Not like it would be a federal obstruction of justice charge to be tried in court.
Fred,
Like the Secret Service’s erasure of all communications dealing with January 6?
TTG,
The J6 Committee did what with their records….
Fred,
Published a final report with supporting documents including court documents, documents on file with the Select Committee, hearing videos, transcribed interviews and depositions, video exhibits and web resources referenced by the committee.
https://www.govinfo.gov/collection/january-6th-committee-final-report?path=/GPO/January%206th%20Committee%20Final%20Report%20and%20Supporting%20Materials%20Collection
I wonder what this does for future trust in the Israeli electronic industry? How many shell companies where violating local laws for a “good” cause? I’m sure there’s no WEF connection either.
Did you know a secret when you decided against owning a cellphone years ago Fred? (Joke) It’s in theory possible that millions were covertly modified years ago. Here’s a short random sampling of this morning’s Telegram posts & comments fyi. (Even solar panels are exploding according to various reports.)
—————————
https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/62957?comment=5329380
Tetranitropentaerythritol is detected by explosive detectors. Don’t spread this information to the masses. It contains a nitro group, it is detected identically to any organic explosive with nitro groups. Organic peroxides are also most likely not suitable here. Most likely, perchlorates were used. They are relatively new. They were used in that truck on the Crimean Bridge, I think.
Vid @ link:
https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/62957
They write, Lebanon, cell phone repair. One of the devices had a bug and exploded. The owner was lucky. Israel has shown the world that: 1) Explosives can be placed in large quantities in production facilities in any equipment, including household equipment, including small equipment; 2) This explosive is not detected by detectors at airports and restricted areas. According to Sky News Arabia, Mossad used PETN (pentaerythritol tetranitrate) explosives – a white crystalline powder that is sensitive to heat and friction, used to fill blasting caps. Then, the battery was remotely overheated and detonated. Each device contained 20 grams of PETN. As I said today , Israel has opened a new era of terrorism.
https://t.me/Agdchan/18126
Today we all woke up in a new world. A world in which Western countries have begun to plant not only GPS bugs and wiretaps in equipment and household appliances, but also explosives for the mass murder of representatives of countries and peoples they don’t like. And right at the factory. Thousands of booby-trapped pagers were produced by a Taiwanese company with American administration and sold through a shell company in Hungary. The radios that exploded yesterday were produced by a Japanese company with many branches around the world. And then there are mopeds, cell phones (including iPhones), and more. In Lebanon, thousands of people were wounded and dozens were killed. Yes, including Hezbollah fighters and soldiers. But many more were doctors, civil servants, and emergency workers – all of them were also using pagers. Hundreds of people lost their sight and limbs, and the “charged” equipment rang before the explosion, asking people to pick it up. The issue of import substitution has become a priority. Now it is the key to the survival of the state. Buying planes or cars in the West? Pagers contained 20 grams of PETN explosives, a car or plane can contain two kilograms with a speed or altitude activation sensor. The latest iPhone model can not only listen to an official, but also tear his head off. Are the US and Israel ready to kill heads of state? Or maybe ALREADY? The Iranian President Raisi, the head of the Foreign Ministry and their entourage, including the pilots, who crashed in a helicopter , also had pagers. After Lebanon, will the US and its allies decide to poison food supplies? Infect them with a virus? The question is rhetorical. The brave new world is already here. It’s all around.
https://t.me/Agdchan/18124
Vid at link. In Lebanon, even kitchen appliances, car stereos, solar panels, fingerprint locks and similar electronics have started exploding. Scooter and car devices are catching fire while moving. Does this mean that they will no longer allow people with these devices on board planes? Lebanon urgently demands convening of UN Security Council.
https://t.me/Agdchan/18125
This is very important: it is obvious that such a large number of various household appliances certainly did not contain explosives. It is simply impossible. Israeli terrorists are showing who is really the “master of technology” and the “driver of technical progress”. But traditionalists warned what the worship of the morning star of Modernity would lead to.
F&L,
I remember when terrorists from the Levant did their terror by killing athletes in Munich with guns or hijacked airliners to Cuba. Or shoved old men in wheelchairs off a cruise ship in the Med. Not sure what the Red Brigades used on the Italian PM, nor do I remember what Barack’s friends from the Weather Underground did when they were considered terrorists and not professors and political advisors. Antifa though, mostly peaceful. So I’ve been reminded by the FNM over and over again.
F&L –
The allegation that the Taiwanese Pager manufacture was under “American administration” is important, especially if true.
News reports blandly stated that the Taiwanese manufacturer had “licensed” BAC to produce & sell pagers under the Gold Apollo name & label, but that BAC was a shell corporation. That smelled fishy to me right away; what Tech Corp would let another [foreign] company use their Brand without making sure that those products were at the same level of quality as the home-made version? Gold Apollo would have had to send its own top engineers & QC people to the BAC “factory” to make sure that the “Gold Apollo” name wouldn’t be smeared by shoddy work.
So, now, Gold Appollo is screwed. The pagers they *licensed* for production under *their Name* were not merely “shoddy”, they were intentionally weaponized and used to kill and maim people. Seems to me they are financially responsible, but how that plays out would depend on Taiwan’s legal system.
IMO, this puts Taiwan in a tough spot. If it protects Gold Apollo, it is confirming that Taiwan is essentially allied with Israel. I suppose that would be natural for a country (/rogue Chinese province?) which is dependent on US protection, but it only makes Taiwan’s precarious position worse. What other Taiwanese products have been tweeked to blow up when used by people that Israel (or USA?) doesn’t like?
That can’t be good for a country that depends on marketing its electronic products in the global market…
elkern,
Gold Apollo is big in the pager business, but that can’t be a growth business. The Taiwanese investigation so far established there were no direct sales from Gold Apollo to Lebanon. BAC Consulting says they contracted out the manufacturing but did not say to who. The pagers weren’t necessarily shoddy. They were intercepted en route to Hezbollah. The Taiwanese investigation will probably find out much more.
All Israel had to do was gain access to the right warehouse or shipping container. The modified batteries would have been made well in advance.
My point is that a Company which cares about its Brand would never license another company to make its designs – with its Logo, etc – without making sure that the licensee was making a quality product. So the story of Apollo Gold blindly licensing BAC to make an “Apollo Gold” product without ever seeing the factory smells like BS to me.
Also, most Tech companies are very protective of their designs *and* production processes.
BAC appears to be a Shell Company, most likely a Mossad operation. I’m saying that Apollo Gold had to know that BAC was some kind of Spook Corp, so they agreed to “license” the product without normal procedures.
I can only guess why Apollo Gold would take that risk:
– patriotic loyalty (to Taiwan, presumably)?
– or loyalty to USA, if owners are US
– political pressure?
– commercial pressure?
– bribery/extortion?
– other (any ideas???)
I presume – or *hope* – that Apollo Gold made their choice assuming that BAC was a US/CIA proxy, but who knows?
In any case, Apollo Gold may lose a lot of business from this.
elkern,
Why do you assume the licensed pagers were not a quality product or that Apollo gold had any knowledge or involvement in this. They were most likely another victim of Israel, not to the extent Hezbollah was but a victim nonetheless. Supply chain operations that I’m familiar with were done without permission or knowledge of the product’s producer.
A “quality product” does not explode during normal use.
By licensing BAC to make those “Pagers” (and presumably giving them design and process engineering details used in AG’s plants), Apollo Gold is responsible for those products.
Normally, companies which farm out manufacturing try to protect themselves from damages caused by “shoddy” production processes by over-seeing the subcontractors production line, or at least by inspecting [a statistically useful sample of] the resulting products.
The pagers produced by “BAC”/Mossad/whoever were high-quality bomblets, which is far worse than “shoddy” pagers.
Elkern & TTG:
According to these sources Israel manufactured the pagers and the operation has been ongoing for 15 years.
How Israel Built a Modern-Day Trojan Horse: Exploding Pagers.
The Israeli government did not tamper with the Hezbollah devices that exploded, defense and intelligence officials say. It manufactured them as part of an elaborate ruse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/middleeast/israel-exploding-pagers-hezbollah.html
Israel had hand in manufacturing pagers that exploded in Lebanon: Source
Dozens of people have been killed in the pager attacks.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/israel-hand-manufacturing-pagers-exploded-lebanon-source/story?id=113851347
Israel had a hand in the manufacturing of pagers that exploded on Hezbollah operatives this week, with this type of “supply chain interdiction” operation having been planned for at least 15 years, a U.S. intelligence source confirmed to ABC News.
The CIA has long been reluctant to employ this tactic because the risk to innocents was too high, the source said.
Planning for the attack involved shell companies, with multiple layers of Israeli intelligence officers and their assets fronting a legitimate company that produced the pagers, the source confirmed to ABC News, with at least some of those doing the work unaware of who they were actually working for. (More at link)
Crazy stuff all round.
Whats interesting for me is it has targeted not only the hez organisation itself but also all the insiders who were assisting hez,besides the obvious ones.The foreigners and whatnot hotpot.And let’s us not forget the underground bunkers far from israels borders.Those in the Litani River area and the central lebanon area along the Levant earthquake area.
Also F&L that was an interesting post about the usa electronic warfare aircraft flying around.Pretty quick source you have there amigo
mcohen since you’re suddenly impersonating a gentleman I am pleased to present you with an old puzzle which in years past was used in part as a determinant for entry into a small society, a very small society, of distinguished individuals to whom it is conceivable that I might have once born some relation.
mcohen’s entry koan:
Anagram for “Call Bibi” (8 letters).
You are to respond, if you so choose, by submitting your solution in the text box below and pressing the simulated graphic of a button on which appears the message “Post Comment.”
Here is an article about other types of explosion, that would have a truly catastrophic effect on the U.S.
“An EMP Attack on the U.S. Power Grids and Critical National Infrastructure”
19 September 2024 by Steven Starr
https://sonar21.com/an-emp-attack-on-the-u-s-power-grids-and-critical-national-infrastructure/
Keith,
This is the same crap from Hitler’s WMD drumbeat days. Sorry, meat to say George W Bush and Kamala supporting war criminal Dick Cheney. Modernized for the beltway bandit drifters. Also, Texas needs to connect the electric grid to ensure supply due to climate change, and connected grids are vulnerable to isreals’s nuclear weapons. Did I write Isreal? Really meant China, or the land of the white helmets- the UK, or North Korea, or France, or what’s the one that any day now will commit us all to global suicide? Russia Russia Russia.
Don’t you remember any of this crap from the recent past or are you just schilling for Larry?
Yes, I remember the hype that was used to motivate America’s invasion of Iraq.
I never believed it.
There was no reason to believe Iraq had that level of sophistication.
Indeed, quite the contrary.
But this issue is different.
Several nuclear-armed nations have the capability to pull off this kind of attack.
And, unfortunately in my opinion, we have somewhat of a hostile relation with most of them.
The point is that we and one of them got into a hot conflict,
that conflict could escalate to what Starr’s article postulated.
BTW, I haven’t seen any good reasons to believe what Starr postulated is impossible.
Keith,
The same nuclear armed nations that have had those weapons for years. We have hostile relationships with our NATO allies? I’m shocked you’ve discovered what the UK has been up to. Isreal too. Russia Russia Russia and China too. Also Pakistan but they have such a stable government. Next up BRICS member India. I’m sure their diaspora, especially JD’s wife or that “Indian American ” Kamala have no influence there.
Starr’s stuff MaY be PoSiBle betterment spend spend and follow his suggestions. Or maybe stop doing the provocative crap theo Borg have caused the US to do for decades.
“most of them”
sorry, should have said
“some of them”.
Namely, Russia, China, North Korea.
Certainly not the UK, France, and Israel.
Keith,
Russia is always going to blow up EMP bombs over the US. Just like Nixon was Hitler, Bush 1 and Bush 2 and Romney and Trump. It’s the same BS for decades. The retaliatory strike capability still exists, the subs don’t get sunk, and everyone knows where the ICBMs came from. Please stop repeating the crap. If you want to research something, find out how many smart refrigerators, washing machines, dish washers and even light bulbs, have been ordered by DOD and how many might have explosives planted by ‘enemies’ just like whomever launched the great zero unintended consequences attack in Lebanon.
exclusive: An internal Hezbollah document from the office of the head of the organization’s military intelligence division was leaked. Hezbollah reports 879 deaths as a result of the infiltration and explosion of its internal communication network. Of these – 131 Iranians, 79 Iranians of which 291 senior officials were killed. As a result of the explosions, 509 of them were blinded, the vast majority (491 blind
602 were mortally wounded, of which 84 were seniors. 1735 had their reproductive organs damaged, of which 905 were irreversibly damaged. The number of non-involved casualties is 40, of which 39 are dead and one is seriously or seriously injured
Do you have a link.to a source or sources? Thanks.
Bravo Sierra
Bravo sierra indeed
Possibly.I am starting to think that the whole pagers exploding was bullshit and an act by hez to cover up the security breach.
Does anyone on this site have first hand proof of people injured.Actually been there.Besides all the nonsense on the internet.
Turns out even the list published was a fake.
Twitter has become the devils playground.So has telegram.
That leaves the bongo’s and pigeons.
Evidently hez has a pigeon brigade especially for the job
mcohen,
Amendment 3 is on the ballot in FL. Sponsored by $83 million Truelieve dollars. Not corporate greed though.
mcohen,
Explosions outside of Lebanon? “zero”, of course…..
Fred
Read today some dude in a basement got eliminated,along with his few surviving mates.All you see is smoke and in the one corner a dust selling Chinese good luck charms.Then a woman goes past and it’s sinwar himself leaving Gaza city for rafah.Dressed as a woman,sitting on a bicycle being pushed along by 2 fairies in costume du tutu complete with leopard skin leotards and codpiece.
Crazy stuff man,but so it goes
Biblical
It is a black stone
In the cold waters
But a single thread
Ties me to it
As the currents pull
My anchor
You who are
In my deepest despair
The one I cast
Before the fast
Seeking repentance for sins long past
May you release me
And where shall I go
To the cool shadows
Of meggido
mcohen did you secretly regret that it wasn’t Bacilli because of the second “b?”
Plural of Bacteria.
I was disappointed to tell you truth,not because of the anagram but because I wanted to use it in a poem.also I thought you would have noticed my misspelling of megiddo in my poem above.in any event biblical was clever of you I must admit.substack link took you for a walk there and back here.
I’m walking and walking
Down the street
Looking for somebody
Anybody to meet
I hear whistling
Fingers tapping a tune
I do a little two step
Toes on the line
I hear somebody say
You will be looking fine
Come the day.
I snap a few taps
Of my own
I’m walking and walking
My wild oats sown.
the black stone the rock of Israel?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=N86XMme94AA
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rock_of_Israel
“both sides of the Jordan” & up to the Litani river. Ancient + modern culture vs “shithole places” with the help of the Omnipresent, Immaterial, Almighty. Biblical.
mcohen – your bleakest yet. But powerful. You know how to reach deep.
Another bleak one.
God of our fathers, known of old,
Lord of our far-flung battle-line,
Beneath whose awful Hand we hold
Dominion over palm and pine—
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!
The tumult and the shouting dies;
The Captains and the Kings depart:
Still stands Thine ancient sacrifice,
An humble and a contrite heart.
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!
Far-called, our navies melt away;
On dune and headland sinks the fire:
Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
Judge of the Nations, spare us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!
If, drunk with sight of power, we loose
Wild tongues that have not Thee in awe,
Such boastings as the Gentiles use,
Or lesser breeds without the Law—
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!
For heathen heart that puts her trust
In reeking tube and iron shard,
All valiant dust that builds on dust,
And guarding, calls not Thee to guard,
For frantic boast and foolish word—
Thy mercy on Thy People, Lord!
Reporting is that Hezbollah had recently contracted with a new service provider for their pagers and other devices.
Yup. You guessed it – A TNT
Eric that’s not too shabby.
Now answer me this.
Why is Ukraine asking for long range missiles when they are already in possession of a much more powerful weapon — drone debris?
Eric did you see the news that Lockheed Martin and Raytheon have terminated all weapons production?
They are to begin production of high precision drone debris.
F&L,
Drones – debris or otherwise – are for pussies. They’re like jabs in boxing. Scores some points, keeps the opponent off you, maybe even on his back foot, but not definitive. Sooner or later a knockout punch is needed.
Nice big, well aimed, long-range missiles are the knockout punches. They can dump an opponent on his ass for good.
I’m hoping the claim is true that the Izzies took out Ibrahim Aqil. “During the 1980s, Aqil was a principal member of Islamic Jihad Organization—Hizballah’s terrorist cell—that claimed the bombings of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut in April 1983, which killed 63 people, and the U.S. Marine barracks in October 1983, which killed 241 U.S. personnel.” But shame on the US for not killing or capturing Aqil decades ago.
https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/israel-claims-hezbollah-military-command-nearly-dismantled-after-airstrike-that-killed-ibrahim-aqil-19480484.htm
Reuters is saying that Hezbollah has confirmed Aqil’s death. How did Israeli intel know about the meeting where Aqil and another 15 of Radwan special forces were killed? Perhaps after the attacks on pagers they found out the time & location of the meeting by listening in on the walkie-talkies before they also blew those up? Or maybe they found out after that had caused Hez to forsake OPSEC and used mobiles or landlines?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Ibrahim_Aqil
One person’s freedom fighter is another person’s terrorist, and vice versa. Don’t you know anything about Begin and Shamir? Does the King David Hotel ring any bells?
F&L,
Count Folke Bernadotte. Certain parties were not about to let peace break out in 1948
New to turcopolier?
Take this short test so that our judges can better understand how up to date your vocabulary is.
Define: Precision Debris.
—————-
Yes, only one question. We are experts.
F&L,
I was raised in a middle class family.
Pass/Fail/Head of the Class?
“Hizballah, in addition to being the only effective military force in Lebanon, is a mighty political force in its role as a political party operating within the Lebanese constitution. They hold a large bloc of seats in the parliament and they have other parties, notably Christian, as their allies. In spite of that, the US has sought to impede the functioning of Lebanese government because we simply do not care what happens to the country.”
Patrick Lang, July 20, 2020 SicSemperTyranus posting.
TTG – might I add a footnote to by reply to F&L above. (“So both the Europeans and the Israelis are, as said before, like sheep stuck in a bramble patch. Difficult for them to retreat – the loss of face for the politicians would be very great. Impossible for them to intensify the conflict – that can’t be done without getting the US to come in deeper and it seems that can’t happen.”)
First on the targeting. “Ossi” on “b’s” site collects further references:-
“The fact that Russia’s claim is true has been known since the leaked telephone conversation between the German Air Force generals at the latest. In the conversation, they spoke in great detail about the fact that Ukraine cannot use the cruise missiles itself, but that NATO soldiers do. Just one example from the conversation:
“So when it comes to doing mission planning, for example, I know how the English do it, they do it completely in reachback.”
But there is another problem, which the British Times pointed out in passing in an article a few days ago:
“The missiles are not flying directly at their target, defense officials say: They are effectively guided “through the eye of a needle” using GPS and terrain map data. “You could certainly fire them single-handedly, but they probably wouldn’t survive in the contested, electronically jammed environment the Russians are in,” said a British defense source. “Russian electronic warfare has rendered GPS useless. They jam it. So you have to use another data set that is in American possession instead.” This is classified, but probably has to do with the capabilities of ground maps.”
It’s all about ground maps
The fact that Russian electronic warfare has rendered GPS useless is indeed a problem for the West. The second option, besides GPS, to maneuver a missile to its target is precise ground maps that the missile can use to navigate. And according to the British Times, only the USA has such detailed ground maps of Russia.
However, that is not true.
On September 30, 20On 21, the “Welt” newspaper reported on a tender from the Bundeswehr under the headline “Centimeter-accurate geodata – these maps from the Bundeswehr identify Putin’s vast empire more precisely than ever before”:
“According to information from WELT AM SONNTAG, the Bundeswehr has awarded a contract to print highly accurate hiking maps of Russia on a military scale. The maps are supposed to show more than just streets, paths and houses. The Bundeswehr itself does not want to comment on this information. However, a tender platform provides more clarity: “The project in question deals with the production and delivery of vector data in high resolution – usually on a scale of 1:50,000 – in the production area of Russia.” (…) The contract for the terrain data collection that has now been awarded has also already been awarded. According to the tender data, the contractor is Arge VEHA GbR.”
This is why Kiev wants the Taurus
This means that in addition to the USA, Germany also has the necessary ground maps to guide a cruise missile to targets deep in the Russian hinterland, even without GPS. It can be assumed that one of the reasons why Chancellor Scholz, at least so far, is so stubbornly opposed to the delivery of the Taurus to Kiev is that then Bundeswehr soldiers would not only have to program the missiles, but they would also do so on the basis of information that the Bundeswehr apparently has exclusive access to in Europe.
And Germany also appears to be unwilling to share these ground maps with the British or French so that they can use them for their Storm Shadows or SCALPs. It is unlikely that the USA will share such exclusive information with anyone.”
My own belief from way back was that the Western powers have been using the Ukrainians for “look no hands” attacks into Russia of various sorts, not merely missile attacks. Similarly with Ukrainian military operations on the ground. We’ve been directing these pretty well since 2014, let alone since 2022, the Kursk incursion being the latest example of Western planning of what are billed as Ukrainian directed operations.
And Washington is now putting its foot down, both in Ukraine and in the ME, and saying “no more” both to the Europeans and the UK and to the Israelis. I’ve now seen further remarks that seem to confirm that view. Dr Rob Campbell on this subject (my bolding):-
“For a while, a number of commentators have been talking about a divide between the Pentagon on the one hand and the Biden Administration on the other. This could be an expression of that. The Pentagon and the army must know that they are in no fit state to fight a war against Russia but even if they were, they know the risk of escalation to a nuclear conflict is quite high. They have a grasp on reality that the neo-cons/neo libs don’t possess.
“If a ‘palace coup’ has indeed been carried out then Krainer believes this could involve a different relationship with Israel: a relationship in which the US will refuse to back Israel if they escalate – as they are now doing. Krainer also believes that the Pentagon and their counterparts in the Kremlin are talking to each other. Which is hopeful, if true. Only time will tell whether Israel commits ground troops, thereby defying the US. This matter is complicated by the fact that Netanyahu’s personal survival is at stake. The parallels between this and the Ukraine conflict are worthy of some analysis.”
https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-006
And another of “b’s commenters, “Jams O’Donnell”, links to a further article on the subject. This one quotes Colonel Wilkerson.
“In a 30-minute interview with Judge Napolitano on September 18, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, former chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell and critic of America’s wars, described a recent event in which Pentagon chief Gen. Lloyd Austin told President Biden that, in Wilkerson’s words, “the Pentagon has taken over, essentially, diplomacy as well as any action, militarily speaking, with regard to both theaters of war,” meaning Ukraine and Israel.
Wilkerson added, “And so they’re now in charge.” Austin, according to this telling, listened “to the people in the bowels of the Pentagon who know the truth” and forced the President to back down.
Biden was furious, we’re told, but “took that advice.” Except, as Wilkerson tells it, it wasn’t advice, but instruction. “No dice,” as Wilkerson characterized the message, sounds pretty final.”
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/an-american-coup.html
Don’t know about “coups” and the rest of it but it stands to reason that the Pentagon, as the organisation that’s going to have to do the heavy lifting if there’s escalation both in Ukraine and the ME, can’t afford to talk war as the Euros do. Boris Johnson, and the vast numbers of UK and continental politicians and journalists who call for escalation, can do so safely knowing they are not going to have to make good on those demands. The Pentagon, that would have to, must adopt a more sober and realistic approach.
So as said, the Russian block on significant escalatory measures from the Europeans, and the reluctance of the US to get drawn into an escalatory spiral, accounts for the hothead statements coming out from the EU and the UK politicians. It’s very easy to make wild demands and threats when they know those threats can never be carried into effect.
EO,
Those Western missiles do require Western programming. Ukraine will probably not get them, so they must rely on their own long range drones and their existing Hrim-2 and Neptune missiles. They have already proved quite capable of striking targets deep inside Russia and penetrating Russia’s A2/AD network. Romania is working with Ukraine to produce and improve the Neptune missiles.
Yet another escalation?
https://news.antiwar.com/2024/09/22/ukraine-may-get-permission-in-private-to-fire-storm-shadow-missiles-into-russia/ussia
There are some who say the U.S. is just using Ukraine to weaken Russia.
I am not going to address that.
But look at who is seeing escalation of this war:
the European Parliament.
“MEPs: Ukraine must be able to strike legitimate military targets in Russia
Press Releases Plenary session 19-09-2024 – 12:35”
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20240913IPR23906/meps-ukraine-must-be-able-to-strike-legitimate-military-targets-in-russia
“In a resolution, MEPs want EU countries
to lift current restrictions hindering Ukraine
from using Western weapons systems against legitimate military targets in Russia.”