Brexit. This is it! Freedom for the UK! It took the Irish 700 years to achieve independence for part of their island, but here it is for the UK in only 47 years. The Scots may depart, preferring the yoke of Brussels, but then, the English and Welsh care not. Brave souls. Trumpy will be acquitted in his first senate trial today or maybe tomorrow and will announce the commencement of negotiations for the "greatest trade deal of all time" with Boris, his English doppelganger. There is the pesky little matter of the British NHS, but some way around that problem will be found. A US/British trade deal is obviously on the "right side of history." pl
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Israel/Palestine. Recommend the linked article below on the multitudinous defects of the "deal of the century." It mirrors my thinking and so must be a work of genius. pl
https://prospect.org/world/dont-call-it-a-peace-plan-israel-palestine-trump/
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Turkish Policy. IMO the Turks have decided that they don't want to fight the R+6 for a piece or all of Idlib Province in Syria. They haven't really fought anyone since the Korean War and contrary to civilian delusions war is not just a matter of who has the most and biggest toys. Practice counts a lot. And, even Erdo may realize that the number and depth of the purges he has inflicted on the Turkish officer corps have certainly caused a decline in the quality of the force. It is noticeable that when confronted up close by R+6 forces the Turks shy from actual combat. I remain convinced that a lot of Turkish ambition in Syria is fueled by neo-Ottoman irredentism. Syria was part of the empire for hundreds of years and the same thing is true of Libya until the Senussi Sufi order's revolt against Ottoman rule in 1911. Turkey is now exporting pet jihadis from Syria to Libya. Sounds like they are beginning to give up on long term acquisitions in Syria. pl
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SpaceX TV and Space voyeurism. One of the marvels of the modern world is the ability to watch rocket launches into earth orbit on Space X's TeeVee channel. You can follow the whole process from the count-down to first stage recovery to delivery of the payload to orbit on Space X Tee Vee live. https://www.spacex.com/
And … You can get a free app for your phone at the App Store that will notify you when the next launch is ready. pl
Most encouraging section on Turkey, Colonel Lang. But if those OP’s in Idlib are merely an excuse for helping their Jihadis, shouldn’t they now remove them?
Would also like to know who’s supplying the Jihadis with the new body armour mentioned by TTG recently.
I took one look at that Israeli/Palestinian plan and wondered what lunatic dreamed it up. Is it window dressing in preparation for the Presidential elections?
On Brexit, I shall celebrate Independence Day tonight, and most cheerfully. While aware that after all this time we’ve not really got much further than the Boston Tea Party.
But that analogy can’t be said to fit, if it ever did. It’s a weird situation with the EU. There’s no doubt Brussels is still putting the hours in on the “Let’s cut the UK’s throat for it” project. In return we’re still doggedly guarding their Eastern Marches for them.
That while we’re still not quite sure whether HMG is still working the Vichy Government tack.
Can’t think of any historical analogy for that. Bet it would have puzzled George Washington himself.
EO
IMO those OPs were intended to impede the advance of R+6 forces into Turkish de facto occupied Syrian territory in the hope of being able to hold onto some of it permanently. I don’t have any idea about the body armor. Perhaps TTG can answer that.
“A US/British trade deal is obviously on the “right side of history.”
Trump’s administration is probably going to demand a heavy price for it, not least in foreign policy:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/15/boris-johnson-uk-us-trade-deal-under-threat-unless-iran-stance-changes-says-trump-ally
Musk is proving to be on of the great innovators of our age.
SpaceX has changed commercial space flight and is working to change communication.
Tesla motor is leading the the way on transition to electric vehicles.Solar roofing and battery storage will become common once mass production makes system price compatible.
Interesting times
“Right side of history” was a joke. History does not have “sides.” History is just things that happened. As for the price, there is no free lunch.
English Outsider,
The body armor worn by the jihadis is undoubtedly of Turkish manufacture although I can’t tell by looking at it. They’ve also used Turkish manufactured vehicles including APCs. Those are unmistakably Turkish. Turkey has a well developed and profitable military equipment industry. The jihadis have also employed at least one Leopard tank. I’m sure that came from Turkey as well.
I think Erdogan is resigned to the jihadis’ defeat in Idlib, but I doubt he will let Afrin and the rest of the border area without a fight… a jihadi fight, not a Turkish fight.
TI,
Part of the price needs to be Christopher Steele and handlers wrapped up in a tidy package.
“Practice counts a lot”.
Truer words have never been spoken.
Add in why the warriors on the one side are fighting and why the warriors on the other side are fighting…
Space voyeurism of a different sort
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32031/a-russian-inspector-spacecraft-now-appears-to-be-shadowing-an-american-spy-satellite
Erdogan lost interest in Syria as soon as Trump said “We have secured the oil”. It is the same reason Turkey is in Libya, Iraq and has issues with Cyprus etc. Now it seems to be a case of minimising losses e.g. preventing the jihadis being pushed into Turkey.
On brexit, the UK has always been in Europe but never part of Europe.
Should be clear there will be no price to be agreed, we already do plenty of trade without a deal. Huawei 5G, a peaceful resolution with Iran and taxing the US tech giants are all going ahead. Foreign policy we will chart our own course, taking inspiration from our own history and adopting Lord Salisbury’s Splendid Isolation. Johnson is no neocon.
Dear Colonel, although a military strategist Erdogan is not, he has been a surprisingly adept geo-strategist. Transporting his jihadi problem to Libya is genius (for Turkey) with the side effect of hurting the EU. Not very good for Libya.
Syria and Ukraine are no longer in play, Russia shows no interest in the central Africa conflict zones, so:
Will Libya become the next place of proxy struggle between Russia and the US?
https://ahvalnews.com/russia-turkey/split-libya-two-might-suit-both-turkey-and-russia-analysis
I cannot imagine that the average frustrated Turk is just itching to send his or her sons off to fight and die for Idlib or Libya or whatever.
Hopefully Erdogan gets that, rather than getting sucking into a war on the basis of “mine’s bigger than yours!”. After the recent shelling, I hope Erdogan still gets that.