"Hariri’s coalition, which took office last year, grouped nearly all of Lebanon’s main parties, including Hezbollah. It took office in a political deal that made Michel Aoun, a Hezbollah ally, president, and was seen as a victory for Iran.
The resignation risks exacerbating sectarian tensions between Sunni and Shi‘ite Muslims and returning Lebanon to paralysis in government.
It was not immediately clear who might succeed Hariri, Lebanon’s most influential Sunni politician.
The prime minister must be a Sunni in Lebanon’s sectarian system. Aoun must appoint the candidate with most support among MPs, who he is expected to consult in the coming days.
“We are living in a climate similar to the atmosphere that prevailed before the assassination of martyr Rafik al-Hariri. I have sensed what is being plotted covertly to target my life,” Hariri said." Reuters
The US, Saudi Arabia and Israel have adamantly opposed the existence of the coalition presently headed by Aoun and Nasrullah. IMO Hariri's resignation indicates a possible decision to use Israeli military force if necessary to destroy the existing coalition in Lebanon.
Hariri fled to Saudi Arabia and communicated his resignation to President Aoun from there claiming that the Iranians and Hizbullah have been plotting to assassinate him as the constitutionally appointed Sunni Prime Minister.
This would serve as a convenient casus belli for an Israeli attack on Hizbullah carried out in frustration over US failure at al-bukamel.
Odds of an Israeli attack? IMO – 50%. pl