US officials say President Biden has given the green light for Ukraine to use long range missiles supplied by Washington to strike deep inside Russia. Washington had previously refused to allow such strikes with US-made ATACMS missiles because it feared they would escalate the war. The major policy reversal comes two months before President Joe Biden hands over power to Donald Trump, whose election has raised fears over the future of US support for Kyiv.
Why has the US allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles inside Russia? Ukraine has been using ATACMS on Russian targets in occupied Ukrainian territory for more than a year. American munitions and hardware are already being used inside Russia – in the Kursk border region, according to local reports. But the US has never allowed Kyiv to use the ATACMS inside Russia – until now. Ukraine had argued that not being allowed to use such weapons inside Russia was like being asked to fight with one hand tied behind its back. The change in policy reportedly comes in response to the recent arrival of North Korean troops to support Russia in the Kursk region, where Ukraine has occupied territory since August.
Also, Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House is raising fears over the future of US support for Ukraine, and President Biden is apparently keen to do all he can to help in the little time he has left in office. Strengthening Ukraine’s hand militarily – so the thinking goes – could grant Ukraine leverage in any peace talks that may lie ahead. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has not yet confirmed the move. But he said on Sunday: “Strikes are not made with words … The missiles will speak for themselves.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2nrlq1840o
Comment: About freakin’ time. Putin is still claiming this means WWIII is upon us. But there’s a patter with Putin’s history of such proclamations. Illia Ponomarenko explains it well:
Some people seem to just have the attention span of a goldfish. “WW3” was supposed to inevitably begin like at least two dozen times since 2022, with every single weapon type that Ukraine managed to beg its way to. Javelins and NLAWs (“WW3!”), artillery pieces (“WW3”), HIMARS (“WW3!!!”), air defenses (“WW3!”), as well as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, radars, missiles, drones, jets, strikes on Russian military targets in mainland Ukraine (“WW3!!!”), on Russian-occupied “WW3!!!”, strikes in near-borderline areas (absolutely exactly WW3!!), Russian oil refineries (“oh my god”), radars (“AAAAAA!!!”), and now also the entire Kursk region, namely the North Korean units (“10000% WW3 run you fools”).
And then, every single time, “WW3” slipped out of their mind completely until the next time, again and again. And no one gives a damn about the fact that something may be wrong with this picture.
I don’t see the freeing of ATACMS strikes leading to a WWIII situation unless these strikes somehow caused the Russian Army to absolutely collapse. If the Russian Army just walked away or, God forbid, start marching on Moscow, Putin could very well resort to nuclear weapons to regain control of the situation. And no thinking person really wants that. I don’t even think Zelenskiy wants to put Putin in that position. He just wants the Russians to stop slaughtering his fellow Ukrainians and the Russian Army to leave Ukraine.
In my opinion, Biden should not have announced this decision from deep within the Amazon rain forest. He should have quietly passed the decision to Kyiv, London and Paris and let the first long range ATACMS strike serve as the announcement to Moscow and the rest of the world.
TTG
Is this Dark Brandon’s reaction to Russia’s weekend swarm attack on Ukrainian power stations to soften their erstwhile brothers and sisters into submission before Trump retakes office?
IMO although Russia has tried taking out the grid before, both sides are hurrying the stack the deck in their favor before Trump is sworn in. IMO the Ukrainians may, like Israelis, accept the least undesirable settlement offered by the U.S. and cross fingers that Putin cares more about his legacy than throwing a U.S. settlement out of a UN window.
Lesly,
Could be. I also think it’s a reaction to the concentration of North Korean and Russian troops at Kursk.
in other words…. you believe what you read in the papers, lol… good luck with that..
What concentration of North Korean troops?
And, let’s be honest here, which is the chicken, and which is the egg?
Are these missile strikes a “reaction to” the claims regarding North Korean troops? Or was the claim regarding North Koreans troops spun out of thin air to provide the “excuse for” these missile strikes?
I know which explanation you believe, I just don’t know why you believe it so ….. uncritically.
TTG –
My understanding was that it was an unauthorized leak, not a Biden announcement. My guess is it was Jake Sullivan or someone on his staff. Too bad as Russia has already started hardening their airfields; but that may have been in response to the UK and France allowing strikes with Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles which was talked about last month. Or maybe it’s responsive to Ukraine’s deep UAV attacks on military and industrial targets?
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1858621388803739811
Also those ATACMS are reportedly only to be used to protect the Kursk Salient and not for deep strike elsewhere. Plus it’s rumored that the US authorized ATACMS while prohibiting the use of Storm Shadow and Scalp for deep strikes. I have no clue whether any of that is true. But Ukraine seems to be doing damn well using UAVs and Neptune cruise missiles deep into Russia.
I question this statement: “Putin is still claiming this means WWIII is upon us. But there’s a patter with Putin’s history of such proclamations. ”
I do not believe that there has been any such pattern from either Putin himself or any of his senior officials.
” Javelins and NLAWs (“WW3!”), ”
Well, no, there were western politicians and commentators suggesting “(“WW3!”)”.
Same with the HIMARS, the Patriots, the Abrams, etc. etc.
There is a tendency amongst western decision-makers to argue amongst themselves about the wisdom/stupidity of doing This or supplying That, or whatever, and somehow through some bizarre act of osmosis the arguments of the nah-sayers end up being attributed to the Russians.
It’s much the same with the claim that the Russians expected that the SMO would be over in three days. That has now been accepted as conventional wisdom, yet it is untrue: the claim was made by Mark Milley, who may have been many things but “Kremlin official” is not one of them.
To my recollection Putin has stated only these Russian Red Lines:
1) If the West insists on fast-tracking Ukraine into NATO then he will respond with force again Ukraine
2) If Ukraine insists that it will develop nukes then he will respond with force against Ukraine
3) If NATO assists Ukraine in launching long-range missiles against Russian territory then he will respond with force against NATO.
The West decided to call his bluff on (1), and Ukraine attempted to bluff him on (2), and in both cases the Russians did exactly what they said they would do.
So I for one think it monumentally foolish to belief that he is bluffing on (3) merely because Washington has deluded itself into believing that the voices inside their collective heads are a hot-line into Putin’s thinking.
It’s not. They are listening to an echo-chamber.
propaganda in the west works exactly like an echo chamber.. unfortunately ttg’s post is more from the echo chamber… anything to cast putin as the villain is good… oh and i see moa’s post on antipersonal mines today… i suppose this makes putin the villain too… many americans are so out of touch with reality, it is hard to know where to begin..
james –
The mines are non-persistent, meaning they become inert after a certain time period. Unlike the tens of thousands of Russian anti-personnel mines that have killed and maimed Ukrainian civilians including children.
They’ll be deployed in areas that are already chock full of Putin’s unexploded ordnance. It could be a good thing for Ivan Sixpack in Russia’s infantry if they stop the meat assaults that they have been forced into.
Speaking of echo chambers, there is a lot of that going on in the West due to Kremlin talking points. Putin’s shills and spin doctors have turned the internet into what Goebbels could only have wet dreams about.
Yeah, Right,
Here’s another compilation of Putin’s unfulfilled threats.
NATO didn’t decide to fast track Ukraine’s membership application until July 2023, well after Russia’s invasion. It will still take years if ever. Finland and Sweden were fast tracked long after Russia’s invasion as well. Russia threatened to take “military-technical measures” if this happened, but this doubling of NATO bordering Russia has so far drawn no real response.
If we gave Ukraine Tomahawks and allowed Kyiv to rain those cruise missiles down on Moscow and Saint Petersburg, I would expect Putin to respond with force against NATO. That would be a more than reasonable assumption.
As far as the Russian SMO goes, there’s the prematurely published claim of victory published by RIA Novosti on 26 February 2022. That article is still available. The Kremlin did expect a repeat of the conquest of Crimea rather than a drawn out war of attrition, but they badly underestimated Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian people and badly overestimated the efficacy of the Russian military.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60562240
https://uz.sputniknews.ru/20220226/nastuplenie-rossii-i-novogo-mira-22994815.html
https://x.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html
So, what I am reading is that you have been unable to find a single DIRECT QOUTE from any Kremlin spokesman actually saying what the MSM are claiming they said.
Not. A. One.
So, pardon me, how are any one of your links any more authoritative than your own claims that – of course! everyone knows this! – that the Kremlin have statedultiple Red Lines.
Well, OK, give me the quotes. Don’t bother giving me the Chiese Whispers.
“There is a tendency amongst western decision-makers to argue amongst themselves about the wisdom/stupidity of doing This or supplying That, or whatever, and somehow through some bizarre act of osmosis the arguments of the nah-sayers end up being attributed to the Russians.”
Yeah Right – it is the strangest thing to watch, the phenomenon you describe. The Western politicians and press excitedly discuss among themselves this or that option – DMZ’s or the “Two Germany solution” or a unilateral ceasefire – without ever enquiring what will or will not be acceptable to the Russian side. And then attributing their assumptions to the Russians. It’s as if the Russians don’t exist except as some fantasy construction in the minds of our politicians.
“They are listening to an echo chamber”, you say of our politicians. And most of us in the West are living in that same echo chamber. An “Echo chamber of self-delusion”, to use a borrowed term, and most dangerous self-delusion at that.
As our delusions melt away in the face of undeniable military and economic defeat we’d do well to start listening to what the Russians are really saying rather than what we pretend they are saying. And to examine what they are really aiming for instead of the invented aims our politicians and journalists attribute to them.
TTG
If you put yourself in other peoples’ shoes and try to think like they think, then anything is possible.
In 2022, you thought Putin was bluffing and wouldn’t attack Ukraine. You were wrong then, let’s hope you are not wrong now.
John,
Both Colonel Lang and myself thought Putin was far too competent to launch a major invasion. Once he recognized the DNR and LNR, I thought he would openly send his army into those republics up to the line of demarcation. I doubted we would do anything meaningful in response.
TTG – Would have been brilliant had your and the Colonel’s hope been realised. The self-declared Republics would have been secure from invasion by the Kiev forces and at least part of Minsk 2 would have been achieved.
But I don’t think it would have worked for the following reasons:-
1. Such a move on the part of the Russians would immediately have triggered our “Sanctions from Hell.” Given that – and don’t forget that those sanctions could have caused more damage than they did had it not been for Miss Nabiullina’s fast footwork – the Russians might as well move to clear the whole mess up. Which they did. And about time, I always felt – we’ve been fooling around with Ukraine since well before 2014.
2. Leaving the rest of Ukraine untouched would have meant that we could have continued to use Ukraine as a launching pad for just the sort of drone and missile attacks we’ve seen us launching into Russia since. Also for the sabotage and assassination attempts into Russia we’ve seen since. Not what any country wants on its border.
3. I doubt it would have worked even in purely military terms. The forces at the disposal of Kiev were very large. They were NATO trained and fairly well equipped at that time. It was, in truth, about the best and largest army NATO has had at its disposal since the ’80’s. That army greatly outnumbered the LDNR forces and outnumbered even the forces the Russians could field in that theatre at that time: the Russians have always held back the bulk of their forces for a direct NATO attack and I don’t think they could have put in more than the small force that they did.
So with the benefit of good interior communications and full Western support the Kiev forces could well have given the Russians a hard time had the Russians stopped dead on the Line of Control in February 2022.
4. There was some worry about biolabs and about Zelensky getting his hands on nuclear. He’d mentioned the latter at the preceding MSC. Given that we’ve seen Kiev shelling and droning NPP’s since, and that with NATO assistance, there was reason for of the Russians, as said, going in to clear the whole mess up instead of stopping short as you and Colonel Lang had hoped.
For those reasons I don’t think the idea that the Russians could have stopped at the Line of Contact would have worked.
Instead the Russians took the bull by the horns and mounted a disabling Blitzkrieg attack on the Kiev forces, never reported, as far as I saw, in the Western press or mentioned by the Western politicians. That done, and it was done in the first week or so, it was game over. All we’ve seen since is what I term the Milley/Cavoli/ Radakin amateur night as they threw our unfortunate proxies against the rock solid Russian defences or fixed up the usual atrocity theatre for the Western press.
Since then, we’ve seen the Russians move to Shoigu’s “Aggressive attrition” and are now waiting to see what they do next. There’s not a lot the West can do to alter that anyway so it’s wait and see time. The ATACM’S and SS nonsense is, as said, more happy talk for the Western audience than anything meaningful.
Though it could be that the Russians themselves aren’t above a little theatre too. This is probably the Russians saying to Scholz, who’s currently dithering about Taurus, “You feeling lucky, punk”.
https://www.southfront.press/russia-showed-its-dooms-day-weapon-in-action/
………………………
But you’ve permitted me to state my view here since the start, TTG. I think it was plain wrong to use Neo-Nazis to poke at the Russians. Wrong for us, wrong for the Russians of course, and worst of all wrong for our unfortunate proxies.
Time to pack it in before some idiot in Berlin/Brussels or Washington decides to play “I dare you” with the Russians once too often.
EO,
I think it was unlikely that the full sanctions would have been implemented if the Russians stopped at the line of contact in the LNR/DNR. Even Biden voiced doubts about that at the time. He was giving the Russians a face saving out to avoid sanctions that even the West didn’t really want.
Ukraine would not have been used as a launching pad for Western missiles if the Russians only occupied the LNR/DNR. That occupation would have silenced the guns on both sides of the LOC. Nowhere else along the border were shellings being exchanged. The drone, missile and sabotage attacks only commenced after Russia invaded Ukraine. It would have remained a Sitzkrieg.
The Russian forces available far outnumbered the Ukrainian forces. Moving to the well prepared positions at the LOC would have been a cakewalk for the Russians. Those same prepared positions would have kept the Ukrainians at bay. An added benefit for the Russians would have been the maintenance of the myth that the Russian military was invincible. The full on invasion destroyed that myth.
The biolabs and nuclear acquisition myths are just that… myths. Are there medical research labs in Ukraine? Probably. Most countries have medical research labs. Those are not bio-weapon labs. Zelenskiy only lamented that Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees. Ukraine ended up with no nuclear weapons and no security.
You claim “it was done in the first week or so, it was game over.” Game over? Haven’t you been paying attention since the first week? It is far from game over for anyone involved, although both Russia and Ukraine are hurting badly.
…………….
I’m glad to keep you around here in spite of your often Kremlin-tainted stance. You express your point of view well and often make good points. Plus, I happen to like you.
TTG – believing that Napoleon pulled off a masterstroke at Austerlitz does not make me pro-French. Any more than acknowledging that your George Washington seems to have done reasonably well from time to time makes me pro-American.
That the Russians’ opening moves of the SMO were brilliant doesn’t therefore make me pro-Russian. Hell, I don’t even like vodka.
Nor am I anti-English because, as Colonel Lang would often remark, MI6, and the gang of ex-MI6 and dodgy ex-military/SF characters MI6 keeps for the really scrubby work, are contemptible. We need only instance the White Helmets scam that the Colonel was so scathing about as proof of that. Or Russiagate.
On the contrary. Any Englishman proud of his country can only despair at what these losers are getting up to at the behest of HMG. Have often said, our English politicians and journalists, and all their Intel/SF hangers on, resemble nothing as much as a nest of sewer rats at present; and we English do ourselves no service by pretending otherwise.
That also applies to the famed 77 Brigade and the Integrity Initiative. A blot on the English scene the lot of them and we should all be ashamed to have such in our midst. If Trump ever does manage to clean house in Washington I wish he’d come over here and do the same for us.
Same applies to the dubious work carried out by the out of control Intel apparatus in your country. You, the scrupulous chronicler of the Syrian war, cannot pretend to support what that apparatus got up to in Syria and I’d be amazed if you really approved of what it got up to in Ukraine.
So no more “Kremlin-tainted” or “Kremlin troll” please! The few Russians I meet over here hate Putin’s guts with a passion: but all I can say to that is that he’s obviously exceptionally able and has done good work in pulling Russia out of the ’90’s.
As for the Milley/Cavoli/Radakin crew all I can say to that is that you get different news in America from the news coming out in England or Ukraine. The English press admitted some time ago that it was us who set up the Kursk disaster and I gather the Ukrainians have stated that the Krynki disaster was planned and pushed through by London quite against the wishes of Zaluzhnyi.
And since it’s openly acknowledged that the British and the Americans work hand in glove, and we used your ISR for Radakin’s foolery in the Black Sea, that puts your people in the hot seat too.
The army you and the Colonel, and Leith and so many others, were justly proud to serve in no longer exists, not at the higher levels. It is now a cross between a boondoggle and a gang of rank amateurs posing as Generals. And we know what happened to wreck your Intel services because the Colonel set it out in full.
…………………….
Er, for the record I’m not actually pro-French. Used to be, very much so, but then the rogues pinched our fish. And I’m pro-American because the Americans helped us out in the Falklands. And on one or two other occasions.
Apart from that I’m no xenophobe and no xenophile. Just one of “We the People”, wondering how on earth the freak shows calling themselves governments in the various capitals of the West got us all, and the unfortunate Ukrainian PBI, into the disaster known as the Ukrainian War.
First use of cross-border ATACMS apparently. The target, a GRAU (Main Missile and Artillery Directorate) arsenal, was previously attacked by other means last month.
https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1858860950482248152
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-north-korea-ammunition-depot-karachev-bryansk-russia-1966210
Scary, IMO, but the Russian reaction will depend on the actual targets.
My understanding is that targeting ATACMS requires (coded?) satellite & GPS-type data which can only come from US technical sources; and that the US (probably?) retains control over the actual targeting of each missile fired. The upside of this is that we – USA – can (hopefully) prevent Ukraine from targeting cities (or perhaps worse, nuclear power plants like the one at Kurchatov in Kursk Oblast); the downside is that the US is therefore responsible for what *does* get hit.
I expect the Russian response to be escalatory but proportional: bigger attacks, but aimed at targets generally similar in kind to whatever Ukraine hits in Russia. If the actual targets are limited to truly “military” facilities, Russia will probably reply with hypersonic missile attacks on military facilities deep(er) inside Ukraine. If Ukraine hits cities or Nuke plants, all bets are off.
There are of course a lot of grey areas, like a factory at the edge of a big city that produces military equipment. I’d guess that the reaction will be strongly related to civilian deaths; hit that factory at midnight, killing a few people, the reaction would be small compared to a midday strike killing hundreds.
The other danger with the new plan (allowing attacks deeper into Russia) is the possibility that Ukraine might crack US targeting codes and attack targets the US does not approve, in the hope that a drastic Russian response would draw the US & NATO into full combat.
I don’t like games of Chicken – brinkmanship. Murphy usually wins.
elkern,
I’m not so sure Ukraine needs US assistance to program each ATACMS missile. They are fully capable of programming their Neptunes and long range drones, although I’m sure they use Western satellite data to do so.
TTG: “I’m not so sure Ukraine needs US assistance to program each ATACMS missile.”
Here is what Putin has to say on the issue of HIMARS:
“First, conventional weapons: a multiple-launch rocket system, a long-range of 70 kilometres or something similar. It has been used for a long time. In fact, Ukrainian military personnel can do this on their own. And as for advanced high-tech, high-precision and long-range weapons, such as the British Storm Shadow or the American ATACMS, or French missiles, what can we say? I have also spoken about this, by the way, when I left Uzbekistan.”
Here is what Putin has to say on the issue of ATACMS:
“How are they used and how are they transported? They handed over a missile system (the Pentagon, the Americans did). But how is it used? Ukrainian military personnel cannot do everything on their own and launch strikes with this missile. They are simply technologically unable to do this because it requires satellite reconnaissance; then, based on satellite reconnaissance data (and this is American satellite reconnaissance), a flight mission is formed and then entered into the missile system. And then the soldier who is next to it does it simply automatically: he presses the buttons. He may not even know what will happen next.”
Putin then continues:
“What can the Ukrainian military – not the ones who are just sitting there and pressing buttons – but the higher-ranking ones do when it comes to target assignment? They can identify a target that is a priority for them. But they are not the ones who decide whether a particular target should be hit, because, to reiterate, a WTA (weapon target assignment) is formed and effectively entered only by those who supply the weapons. If we are talking about ATACMS, then the Pentagon is doing it. If it is Storm Shadow, then the British are. It is even more straightforward in the case of Storm Shadow, because the target assignment is entered automatically, without the involvement of the military personnel on the ground. The British do it, that is all there is to it.”
So you are just shrugging your shoulders regarding the risk of a direct war between the USA and Russia because you are “not so sure” about something that the Russians themselves are publicly and repeatedly insisting is true.
I….. honestly, I’m speechless.
Has it occured to you that in respect to a risk of a direct war between the USA and Russia it doesn’t matter in the slightest what you or anyone else in the West “isn’t so sure” about?
That the only thing that matters is what the RUSSIANS believe to be true, because they will act on THEIR certainty and not on YOUR lack of surety.
Your post is the posterchild for a Western cavalier attitude towards something that should be taken very, very, very seriously.
Yeah, Right,
The Kremlin spews a lot of bullshit. They still don’t think Ukraine is a country. I certainly don’t take their claims of how HIMARS and ATACMS are programmed for a strike as gospel. The Ukrainians build and program their own Neptune missiles and long range drones so they are fully capable of doing the same once showed how to do so. But I do believe they can probably also be programmed remotely or locked out of certain targets.
And all this talk of risking a nuclear exchange depends on the Kremlin initiating that exchange. You don’t see anything wrong with that kind of crazy talk?
TTG,
“They still don’t think Ukraine is a country”
Russia is behaving a lot like the idiot Iranians, Arabs and Palestinians. They deny the right to exist of the target country and, more bizarrely, think they, themselves, have the right to a risk free war. We attack the enemy and if we lose land in the process of the enemy defeating us, we should get it back. If the enemy we invaded responds by sending troops across the border into our own country and/or shooting into our country, then it’s a travesty. If we hide our fighters behind our civilians and the civilians get killed, then the enemy has committed a war crime.
It amazes me that so many people buy into this ridiculous sissy whiney propaganda. I guess social justice “warriors” are always looking for a cause as long as it supports some anti-western filthbags.
ATACMS are short range missiles. They can’t hit the major Russian cities and will probably be used against staging areas and associated infrastructure. As you said, if Ukraine were to hit Moscow, then we’d expect a strong response and an escalation of the conflict. But, again, ATACMS can’t do that.
This situation does make for great political theater; just one example being that when Trump arranges a ceasefire, Biden/democrats can claim they forced Russia into it by allowing missile fires into Russia – and they will be a little bit correct. Trump will be able to claim that he prevented WW3.
It’s all so stupid.
Here you go, TTG, some more elaboration from Putin regarding the need for US assistance to program each ATACMS missile:
“My second point is that the final target selection and what is known as launch mission can only be made by highly skilled specialists who rely on this reconnaissance data, technical reconnaissance data. For some attack systems, such as Storm Shadow, these launch missions can be put in automatically, without the need to use Ukrainian military. Who does it? Those who manufacture and those who allegedly supply these attack systems to Ukraine do. This can and does happen without the participation of the Ukrainian military. Launching other systems, such as ATACMS, for example, also relies on space reconnaissance data, targets are identified and automatically communicated to the relevant crews that may not even realise what exactly they are putting in. A crew, maybe even a Ukrainian crew, then puts in the corresponding launch mission. However, the mission is put together by representatives of NATO countries, not the Ukrainian military.”
So he has been consistent in his statements: unlike HIMARS each ATACMS missile launch requires the direct participation of NATO military personnel.
Not just western mercenaries, but the direct participation of NATO personnel working with NATO systems.
He has been willing to let that slide w.r.t. ATACMS use inside Ukraine. But he is not willing to let that slide w.r.t. ATACMS being launched into what is unambiguously and universally acknowledged to be Russian territory.
And nor should he.
Biden has just made a decision that has guaranteed that serving US and other NATO personnel are going to die.
Exactly when, and exactly where, is something that the Russians will decided for themselves. I certainly don’t know when or where.
But it is going to happen, and Joe Biden is the person who has made that inevitable.
Yeah Right –
Ukrainians have been using ATACMS for over a year now. Their operators have had plenty of opportunity to become experts on the system.
Additionally there is the fact that ATACMS is in ten or twelve other countries besides the US and Ukraine. Do you honestly believe that those countries all have Americans operating their missiles for them?
Putin doesn’t know what he’s talking about. He’s starting to believe his own FSB’s and GRU’s conspiracy theories. Schizophrenia maybe? You could have come up with a more reliable source.
The question isn’t who’s “operating” (prepping for launch & pushing the button) but who sets the targets.
Seems like everyone agrees that ATACMS require US satellite GPS data, but it’s not clear whether the Ukraine can turn SatNav data into [what I’m calling] “targeting codes” on their own, or if USA has retained control over that part of the process. The quotes from Putin (see comments above) imply that he/they believe that targets require direct US technical assistance *and therefore direct US approval of targets*. (OTOH, as TTG says, Putin may be claiming that for some kind of political/propaganda purpose).
I kinda hope that the US can control the targeting, because desperate (or rogue?) Ukrainians could use start WWIII by attacking Russian population centers or nuclear power plants.
Leith – we in the West are fooling ourselves if we think the Kiev forces can fire off our missiles without us doing most of the work. You say the Ukrainians have had plenty of opportunity to become experts on the system and can now use them independently. That’s pure myth. They can’t – the “strike packages” use data the Ukrainians are not allowed to see.
The Americans are chary even of sharing this data with other Western countries. They cannot share it with the Ukrainians because the Ukrainians are far too leaky.
And if the Ukrainians did get hold of it, they’d use it to hit targets the West doesn’t want them to hit for fear of retaliation. You do not trust such weaponry to a Kiev government spending its last days in the bunker. We may be irresponsible but even we aren’t as irresponsible as that.
No way round it, I’m afraid. We’re not only running this war for the Ukrainians, and have been since 2014. We’re using Ukrainian territory to attack Russia with any missiles we dare use. Fortunately we don’t dare too far.
We can do that from Ukraine because Ukraine is not in NATO. The NATO doctrine is that an attack on one is an attack on all. That doctrine isn’t as solid as it’s made out to be – an attack on one merely requires the other allies to consult – but it’s solid enough for the converse to apply. An attack from one is an attack from all.
So an attack out of Poland invites instant and justified retaliation on any NATO ally. An attack out of Ukraine does not. That is why Ukraine has been so useful to us. We can use it for these “look no hands” attacks into Russia, not just assassination and sabotage missions but these missile attacks as well, without, we fondly imagine, fearing escalation.
But we’re doing it too overtly now. It’s as if a Russian team carted their missiles into Mexico and fired them off into the US from there. The US would, one way or another, put a stop to it, preferably without risking escalation to nuclear.
Similarly, the Russians will put a stop to our use of Ukraine for this purpose. That’s why Scholz is dithering about using Taurus to attack Russia. The Russians could put a stop to it easily enough by bombing some German site. The Americans wouldn’t go nuclear for that.
Interesting to see what would happen if Merz got in and had to honour his undertaking to fire Taurus at the Russians from Ukraine. I suspect he’d wimp out but we could expect fireworks if he didn’t. All the Europoodles talk big, worst of all HMG I’m afraid, but that’s about all they’re good for when it comes to real war.
But all this’ll work itself out when the Russians have neutralised remnant Ukraine. What we’re seeing now is the Western powers mounting pinprick attacks on Russia out of Ukraine merely from spite; because, to be frank, that’s all we’re capable of.
We knew before 2022 that the Europeans were militarily negligible. The big surprise for us in the public is that it turned out the US is too. You don’t have the men, you’re incapable of gearing up even for old fashioned war and as for your advanced stuff, you haven’t got enough of it and it’s technologically inferior to the Russian stuff anyway.
And your senior military staff, as Ukraine illustrates all too clearly, are amateurs. Capable, just, of organising shooting expeditions against goat herders but lost like small children when it comes to running a real war. Why are you trying to take on a major power in a European land war with entirely insufficient kit and what is universally recognised to be merely “boutique” land forces? As soon as you run out of proxies you’re left bare-assed in the wind. Get real.
Been trying to tell you this tactfully for ages. But it really is time to face reality. If you’re lucky, though you’ll have to be very lucky, Trump might be able to clean up the graft and get you a decent military again. But in the meantime you’d do better to sing small and extricate yourself from the Ukrainian debacle as best you can.
EO,
You are incapable of grasping the concept that it is Russia’s invading of Ukraine that led to missiles and drones now striking Russia and sanctions that are crippling the Russian economy. There would have been no missiles, no drones and only the weakest of sanctions if Russia did not invade Ukraine. That invasion also led to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, a breathing of new life into the NATO alliance and an inflamed hatred of Moscow among the Ukrainian people. The invasion also destroyed the myths of the invincible Russian military and the genius of the Putin/Lavrov team.
EO – Mexico? No way would Mexico allow Putin to launch missiles at US targets from Mexican territory. Unlike Ukraine, Mexican cities have not been struck with cruise missiles and ballistic missiles from Russia targeting civilian apartment blocks, churches, schools and power plants. And unlike Russia in Ukraine, the US has not been firing on or near Mexican nuclear power plants.
Elkern –
Ukraine, unlike Russia, has not attacked Russian population centers or nuclear power plants. And they won’t in the future as they know that all support from the West would stop if they did.
For the hundreds of mil and industrial targets they’ve hit in Russia with UAVs & Neptune missiles, are you saying that they needed US targeting codes? I don’t believe that to be true. Ukraine’s GUR has world class SIGINT and COMINT. They have access to civilian Satellite Imagery such as Maxar and many other such systems. And they have a large population of ethnic Ukrainians & or Tatars living within Russia that are able to provide pinpoint targeting data.
Within Ukraine itself, ATACMS has been used for the last year in striking many targets, mostly in Crimea (including an S-500) and a few in Luhansk & Donetsk oblasts. They didn’t need US targeting codes then, so why would they need them to strike that weapons arsenal near Karachev Russia four days ago? Especially since they had already attacked that exact same target in October with UAVs.
Two comments:
1. Remember what the brokerage houses always say:
“Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.”
In particular,
as the West keeps damaging more and more of Russia’s infrastructure,
Russia will eventually reach a breaking point and say
“It’s time for the nations that have supplied the weapons and technical assistance
that have been necessary to cause so much harm to Russia
to get a taste of their own medicine.”
Relevant aphorisms:
“What goes around, comes around.”
“What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.”
2. Please pay attention to the risk-to-reward ratio.
Whatever the probability is that Russia will retaliate in an extremely harmful (to the West) way,
why risk it?
Even a person dedicated to punishing Russia until it gives up
has to admit that the possibility of a Russian reaction is well above zero.
All this for Ukraine??
I don’t want for the U.S. to be put at risk for Ukraine.
And even if Russia’s reaction is only to strike NATO military bases, logistic hubs, and facilities where weapons are manufactured,
that will cause the hawks in the West to demand that
the West retaliate in turn,
going yet higher up the escalation ladder.
The proper analogy for this is not WW2, but WW1, where a series of (mis)steps led to far more people being killed than in the Holocaust.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_casualties
Keith Harbaugh,
Russia’s use of North Korean troops is a major escalation risking a larger war. Their use of North Korean and Iranian munitions is escalatory, but no more than Ukrainians use of Western munitions. I doubt we’ll be attacking Iran or North Korea over their supplying Russian with munitions or troops.
Ukraine is not capable of collapsing Russia, even with our help. The danger of major Russian escalation beyond Ukraine other than the occasional sabotage or assassination will only become real if Putin’s government is in danger of collapse. Putin’s hold on power is strong enough to weather a withdrawal from Ukrainian territory.
TTG: “Russia’s use of North Korean troops is a major escalation risking a larger war.”
It would be if it were true. But since it isn’t then it’s not.
TTG: “Their use of North Korean and Iranian munitions is escalatory, but no more than Ukrainians use of Western munitions.”
True enough, as far as it goes. Provided, of course, that the NKs and Iranians supply the munitions but it is Russian troops that fire them.
The point that the Kremlin makes is that this is not the case for ATACMS: US military personnel have to take an active part in operating that weapon even if it is a Ukrainian soldier who presses the Big Red Button that sends it on its way.
That does, indeed, make a difference.
TTG: “I doubt we’ll be attacking Iran or North Korea over their supplying Russian with munitions or troops.”
Who is this “we” in your analogy, TTG?
Because if your analogy is to have any credibility then “we” = “Ukraine”.
” Also, Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House is raising fears over the future of US support for Ukraine, and President Biden is apparently keen to do all he can to help in the little time he has left in office.”
Well that certainly isn’t a fear of the citizens of the United States. They just,
coincidently, gave Trump a landslide reelection. So did the British government’s news channel figure out who is afraid of what the president elect might do? Other than all those holding Ukrainian debt, which Zelensky defaulted on months ago?
It’s the 1,000th day of this war. It won’t be won by Zelensky, Starmer, and whichever Obama hold over is running the show in DC before Trump takes office. A lot more killing will probably happen though. Too bad for both sides. I’m reasonably certain no think tank employees, members of parliament, or US civil servants will face any repercussions other than clogged arteries and hemorrhoids from sitting on their fat asses dreaming up asinine policies like this. Perhaps a few US people will get to lawyer up and bankrupt themselves when Trump has his AG do exactly like Garland. Accountability and all don’t you know. That would serve them right. And be “about freak’n time” some one is DC is held to account.
The decision is largely symbolic but even so plays straight into the Russians’ hands. As ever.
In our Western enclave it’s a decision that serves PR purposes. Plus the usual spite to queer Trump’s pitch. Also means we can kill more Russians at virtually no cost to ourselves, a stated aim, according to US politicians, as soon as it became apparent that the original aim, the break-up of the RF, was not going to be achieved. If we can’t beat ’em we’ll degrade their military capacity. The Ukrainians can do the donkey work because we’re incapable of it.
A far cry from the heroism of Iwo Jima and Omaha Beach but that’s what we’ve come down to.
Outside the Western enclave this now gives the Russians a free hand. The Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians even, now see past doubt that Russia has no option but to remove the threat posed by our use of our Ukrainian proxies. So the Russians, with no fear of adverse reaction from the major powers, can now neutralise these proxies as best they see fit. Plays straight into the Russians’ hands.
Biden should stick to his proxy atrocities in the ME. It’s what he’s good at and maybe less risk of blowback.
.
EO,
I believe the UK armed forces are not up to even Singapore level of service now. You can’t even put a fleet to sea, but boy – Storm Shadows! And I see Sir Kier is sitting down with one of Ukraine’s largest bondholders, BlackRock, to make things so much better for your people. Might be better to avoid the war and let the bankers take a haircut rather than shaft your taxpayers, but it’s your country.
As to Russia, they know damned well almost everyone West of the Dnieper hates them and I doubt they want to wage the war of conquest that keeps getting touted by the people who’ve been on the losing side of this one.
Russians have gained as much ground, since September, as they did in the entirety of 2023. Momentum is on their side and there is now talk about the possibility of the collapse of the entire Ukrainian front. If they are going to do something, it needs to happen yesterday.
Stefan,
The Ukrainians have been facing collapse, ANY DAY NOW, and the Russians have been on the verge of running out of ammo and being defeated, within a month, every day for the past 1,000 days. All kinds of “game changers” have been introduced, yet the game continues on the same trajectory. Red lines have been crossed many times. The next one crossed is always going to be the final affront with WW3 coming – FOR SURE! – the next time.
Give it up already. All of the pundits have consistently been wrong as wrong can be.No one wants WW3. So it isn’t going to happen. Russia f’ed up. They wrote a check they couldn’t cash. They started a war high on hopium – a very stupid non-5D chess player thing to do. Ukraine can’t hold out forever. Trump will get everyone to sit in a circle and smoke the peace pipe because that is what everyone wants to do at this point. Trump has a lot of levers to use on both sides. The Biden admin was scared to use levers on the Ukrainians and probably desired a long war, being lost in some neocon fantasy of “defeating” Russia and breaking it apart.
And yes, the NoKos are indeed in the fray. You don’t want to admit that b/c you love them b/c you hate the west so much and they oppose the west.
Nothing to say about how the Russians have gained as much ground in the last two months as the whole of 2023 put together? That certainly is a sign of something. You talked about hubris, how much land the Russians have taken is something verifiable and not something to be dismissed as media PR is.
I could care f/a about the North Koreans. You far right racist types think anyone that does not support your unconstitutional authoritarianism somehow “hates” the US. Yet you support a man who cannot legally own or even handle a firearm but yet will soon have the nuclear codes. What happened to the Law ad Order Republicans? They now have a leader who cannot legally own or touch a firearm or he could be charged with the federal crime of a felon in possession of a firearm. I am sure he’d pardon himself. Churchill once said the biggest argument against Democracy was a 5 minute conversation with the average voter. You, Eric, are as average as they come.
Stefan,
Russia doesn’t even control their new republics. 2023 as a baseline is some funny rhetoric, since the really didn’t gain anything in 2023.
Your TDS meltdown amuses me. I hope it burns your insides every day. I also hope, for your, sake that your immigration papers are in order. I’d hate for you to be deported and have to actually live among the people who you cheer for; you know Hamas, Houthis – maybe the Russians would take you in.
Some accounts of intense British involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict:
https://thegrayzone.com/2024/11/16/uk-plot-keep-ukraine-fighting/
https://thegrayzone.com/2024/11/20/leaked-files-uk-military-plot-grayzone/
These seem to corroborate EO’s claims about British involvement.
I wonder what he thinks about those articles.
Anglo-Russian relations have certainly changed since the early 1900s:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/84/Tsar_Nicholas_II_%26_King_George_V.JPG
https://images.app.goo.gl/5qVgCrHE5PPWhhuK6
Both grandchildren of Queen Victoria.
Keith Harbaugh,
The Brits have openly trained and equipped whole Ukrainian units. An EU program trained many Ukrainian units in Poland and Germany. France is training and equipping a full Ukrainian brigade right now and Poland is raising and training a Ukrainian legion composed of expat Ukrainians. Before the invasion started, 10th SFG(A) trained Ukrainian SOF to conduct UW, which they are doing quite successfully not just in occupied Ukraine but also deep into Russia.
Keith Harbaugh. If I might interject, I do not make any such “claim”. I merely remember the leaked conversation between the German Generals. That sets out in detail the assistance our proxies get. And none do not know that we in the West are using our ISR assets to the full, or as far as we dare, in this theatre.
The link given shows that this technical stuff is freely acknowledged in the UK. Why are the Americans pretending otherwise?
https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/ukraine-retaliation/
Thanks for the correction, and the reference.
Keith – I should have said the article links to an earlier, also showing that this information’s is a matter of public discussion in the UK. Dated 15th September:-
“One issue, it seems, is that the original guidance system for Storm Shadow was GPS, and the UK needs US permission to use the high-precision signals for military purposes. However, the UK could use the open access signal, although that would be of little help to Zelensky as the Russians have mastered the art of jamming (and spoofing) GPS signals.
To overcome this, the missile now uses a different form of guidance, which the ST says is “classified” but likely to be linked to the ground-mapping capabilities. In fact, it is so secret that Wikipedia is able to tell us that Storm Shadow uses a system called TERCOM, short for terrain contour mapping.
This is a navigation system which uses a digitised contour map of the terrain, stored on the missile’s onboard computer, which is compared with measurements made during flight by an on-board (and virtually unjammable) radar altimeter. When a profile match is found, this can be used to provide accurate positional data in the terminal guidance phase.
The problem here is that the data set is almost certainly American-owned. The UK does not have the capability to create the high-definition data sets needed, so US permission would almost certainly be necessary. The US might even have embedded in the system a means of remotely disabling it – as was thought might be the case with the F-35 software – in the event of unauthorised use.
Without this system, Storm Shadow would be of very little use to the Ukrainians and the missile would have to rely on passive inertial navigation, which is subject to considerable errors over distance, and could not be used for precision guidance in the terminal phase.
There is always the option of using active radar homing for terminal guidance – technology that the French used in their Exocet missiles – although the radar signal can be detected and jammed, reducing the value of the weapon.
On that basis, it could matter very little how much the Famous Five lobby Starmer. If the US has laid down the law on this, then the UK is not free to act irrespective of its policy preferences.”
https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/ukraine-going-it-alone/
This information roughly corresponds to what could be picked up from the German Generals’ leak and corresponds with what Putin has said on the matter.
Just an additional note – it’s said the Germans also have their own detailed terrain mapping of Russia and would use it for Taurus. What I don’t believe the Germans would have, though, is the information about Russian AD clusters that enables our missiles, drones too, to have a better chance of evading Russian AD. That would presumably only come from the Americans.
EO,
TERCOM is hardly new or secret. It was developed in the late 1950s based on radar maps. Clearly it’s much better now with satellite mapping and data available from other airborne sensors. The US probably does have a monopoly on the best of that data, but much is shared with NATO and now with Ukraine. The Ukrainians undoubtedly use some of that data in their long range drones.
Off topic.
WAY off-topic:
In his first term, Trump traveled to Saudi Arabia. Photos were taken of him surrounded by Arabs participating in some kind of sword dance.
(Late, lamented) Pat Lang had insightful & scathing things to say about the meaning of that ceremony.
Is it possible for the forum’s Mods to post that. photo & comments again?
Artemesia,
Here’s the link to that posting on the Sic Semper Tyrannis” blog. The bottom line of the post is that the Saudis felt they bought Trump. I bet they truly believed they bought his son-in-law years later.
https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/05/httpwwwfoxnewscompolitics20170522israeli-minister-expresses-concerns-over-us-saudi-arabia-deal-ahead-trump-visitht.html
Thanks TTG
I must of missed that one.
Mukhtar? Isn’t that like the old hamlet honcho in RVN era Nam?