"And, maybe MbS and Kushner thought Netanyahu spoke for Israel when he promised to be a partner in the front against Hezbollah and Iran? Was it the “grand plan” that was affirmed between Netanyahu and Trump on the day before the latter launched his United Nations broadside at Iran in September? When in fact, while any Israeli Prime Minister can wage war against the Palestinians with a relatively free hand, the same is not true where the state of Israel itself is being put at stake. No Israeli P.M. can commit to a possibly existential conflict (for Israel), without having broad support from the Israeli political and security establishment. And the Israel Establishment will only contemplate war when it is plainly in the Israeli interest, and not merely to please MbS or Mr Trump.
Ben Caspit (and other Israeli commentators) confirm that the Israeli establishment does not see war with Hezbollah, and the risk of a wider conflict, to be in the Israeli interest.
The fallout from this episode is highly significant. It has exposed that Israel presently is deterred from contemplating a war in the region (as Caspit explains). It too has underlined the hollowness of MbS ambitions to mount a “Sunni Alliance” against Iran; and it has undercut President Trump’s containment policy for Iran. For now, at least, we may expect Iran and Russia to consolidate the state in Syria, and to stabilize the northern tier. Caspit’s “war of Armageddon” may yet arrive – but not for now, perhaps." Crooke
An eloquent contemplation of the interaction of career Borgists (foreign policy establishment) in Washington with the crowd of enthusiastic amateurs who are DJT's true inner circle. Kushner, Bibi and MbS thought up this idea of a "Sunni Alliance,' sold it to DJT and then went forth to re-shape the world. My God! What an absurdity!
If Crooke is right about this cabal of dunces, the notion circulating that people like Mattis, McMaster, Tillerson, Pence are effective minders for Trump preventing the worst of his potential rogue elephant behavior is just completely wrong. If Crooke is right, then Trump ran this little "caper" all by hisself with the help of "the fam" as Bill Murray once called it.
I would agree with Crooke that the Sunni Alliance as he formulates it was always silly.
1. Saudi Arabia is worthless as military muscle. Yemen! Yemen! Yemen! Had anyone in the cabal noticed that the Saudis have fallen on their asses in Yemen? To launch Saudi and other Gulfie legions at Iran would be precisely like throwing eggs at a brick wall.
2. As Crooke writes, Israel really IS deterred by Hizbullah's potentially murderous rocket and missile fire from hardened positions in Lebanon. the Israelis are far too smart not to know that. Their ambition in this cabal was likely to find others to do their fighting for them while they made threatening noises. pl