"Turkey has the following goals:
- to consolidate gains and to expand the territory under its control in northern and northwestern Syria as well as in northern Iraq. The expansion in northern Iraq may be conducted under the pretext of military efforts against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Sinjar. The military presence in neighboring countries will be justified publicly by the need to create so-called “security zones” to combat “terrorism”;
- to strengthen positions on the so-called Cyprus Issue. Northern Cyprus is a self-proclaimed state occupying the northern part of the island and is recognized only by Turkey. Turkey maintains a notable military force there;
- to strengthen its influence in the Aegean Sea;
- to expand its cultural and political influence into the Turkic states of Central Asia and to restore its clandestine influence on the Turkic regions of Russia." SF
The author of this piece agrees with my position that Turkey will not be leaving northern Syria unless forced to do so. Any number of crafty ploys are available to insure an indefinite presence leading in the end to a request from a puppet government for annexation to Turkey. The same thing is very likely to occur in northern Iraq.
What will Russia, Iran and the US do about such a progression of events? They are likely to do nothing. Inaction is always probable when larger issues of international economics and great power rivalries are barriers to action. pl