Death rates have fallen for the last 12 weeks.

Azrael

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported the 12th straight week of a declining coronavirus death rate in the U.S.

"Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 8.1% during week 27 to 6.4% during week 28, representing the twelfth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC," the CDC website states.

The CDC says the numbers "will likely change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks," but a 12-week decline is a well-established trend that just so happens to coincide with states reopening their economies.  

For the week ending Apr. 18, there were 16,395 deaths involving COVID-19 as reported by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). That number has dropped for 12 straight weeks, down to 1,099 deaths reported by NCHS for the week ending Jul. 11. The number of deaths attributed to COVID-19, pneumonia, and influenza has similarly fallen, from 21,060 for the week ending Apr. 18 to 2,174 for the week ending Jul. 11.

To get some perspective, while just over a 1,000 coronavirus deaths were reported for the week ending Jul. 11, there were 24,723 deaths from all causes in the U.S. For the week ending Jul. 4, the NCHS reported 2,462 coronavirus deaths out of 42,219 deaths from all causes."  Townhall

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The marxo/Democratic run MSM would have you believe that COVID-19 is running wild in the US.  That is all bullshit as you can see from these numbers.  pl

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bronsonstocking/2020/07/17/wuhan-coronavirus-death-rate-drops-for-twelfth-straight-week-n2572702

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32 Responses to Death rates have fallen for the last 12 weeks.

  1. Avatar Ulenspiegel says:

    “That number has dropped for 12 straight weeks, down to 1,099 deaths reported by NCHS for the week ending Jul. 11.”
    Please. Between an infection and the death of the patient are around four weeks.
    The number of US-wide infections have risen sice 15th of June, the death numbers are increasing since last week.

  2. Avatar turcopolier says:

    ulenspiege
    You are a very stubborn man. You wish to believe that the virus is running wild and so you do.

  3. Avatar Deap says:

    He should sign his full name: Til Ulenspiegel’s Merry Pranks. Hat tip to composer Richard Strauss.
    Memo to Merry Pranks: case rates and declining death rates prove this is not the Zombie Apocalyspe that the TDS media so fervently hoped for, and refuse to give up.

  4. Avatar Eric Newhill says:

    Chances of surviving COVID if you test positive
    Female Age 0 – 49 (no serious underlying conditions) > 99.99
    Female Age 50 – 59 (no serious underlying conditions) > 99.98
    Female Age 60 – 69 (no serious underlying conditions) >99.95
    Female Age 70 – 79 (no serious underlying conditions) >99.82
    Female Age 80 and above (no serious underlying conditions) >98.9
    Female Age 0 – 49 (serious underlying conditions) > 99.8
    Female Age 50 – 59 (serious underlying conditions) > 99.3
    Female Age 60 – 69 (serious underlying conditions) >99.7
    Female Age 70 – 79 (serious underlying conditions) >99.6
    Female Age 80 and above (serious underlying conditions) >92.8
    Male Age 0 – 49 (no serious underlying conditions) > 99.99
    Male Age 50 – 59 (no serious underlying conditions) > 99.98
    Male Age 60 – 69 (no serious underlying conditions) >99.8
    Male Age 70 – 79 (no serious underlying conditions) >99.5
    Male Age 80 and above (no serious underlying conditions) >96.3
    Male Age 0 – 49 (serious underlying conditions) > 99.6
    Male Age 50 – 59 (serious underlying conditions) > 99.2
    Male Age 60 – 69 (serious underlying conditions) >97.9
    Male Age 70 – 79 (serious underlying conditions) >95.6
    Male Age 80 and above (serious underlying conditions) >79.9

  5. Avatar turcopolier says:

    Eric Newhill
    Citation?

  6. Avatar rswojo says:

    I a few weeks you will be eating your words as a side dish to crow. We have a lot of crows here in flyover territory. I am willing to send you one (I’ll even gut and pluck it for you). I suggest you cook it low and slow.

  7. Avatar Fred says:

    A little perspective from a voice in the wilderness:
    “There are nine million school age children in California, and not a single WITH-Covid death has occurred among them.”
    “you don’t need to take a single class in epidemiology to understand a core truth: That is, when the nearly 60 percent of the population under 45 years accounts for only 2.5 percent of the reported WITH-Covid deaths and has a rounding error mortality rate, while the 6.5 percent of the population 75 years and older accounts for 60 percent of the deaths—you don’t fight the disease with a one-size-fits all strategy of generic lockdowns, quarantines, and social regimentation.”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stockman-clown-cars-are-fully-loaded-and-dr-faucis-leading-parade
    Trump made a huge political blunder and he’s still paying for it. Fauci should have been fired up front. Hopefully the DOJ will continue to investigate the communist Chinese connections amongst all the federal monies that were and are granted for research via NIH, CDC and other agencies and just who recieved what in return. I’m sure Harvard’s big wig won’t be the only fish to get caught.
    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harvard-university-professor-and-two-chinese-nationals-charged-three-separate-china-related

  8. Avatar turcopolier says:

    rswojo
    OK. Send me documentation when it happens and not from the leftist media.

  9. Avatar Deap says:

    Reminder- this whole global scamdemic started with the Imperial College of Medicine Neil Ferguson, hair on fire we are all gonna die, predicted this “novel corona virus” would wipe millions of us off our mortal coil.
    Then when this rocket British scientist was caught breaking quarantine with his AVAAZ director paramoor, we never heard from him again. Yet his sole threat threw the world into total panic.
    Which should have pleased AVAAZ (and AVAAZ funder George Soros) greatly. And of course, who could forget the Great Toilet Paper Hoax – with origins such as this no wonder it took a while to get any perspective on this man-made Trump election year “crisis”.
    To think this was all unfolding only a few short months ago boggles the mind, looking over the path of associated destruction this scamdemic has left behind. How will history record this moment?
    Somewhere between the Great Tulip Bubble and the Albanian Ponzi Racket?

  10. Avatar Jag says:

    Those death rates for the elderly do not match the rates I have seen.
    Also, I am curious what percentage of the current infections are young or elderly. If primarily young, then we should expect low fatality rates. Unfortunately, the young spread infection to the elderly. Of course, many of the elderly are doing their best to avoid infection. Still we should expect an increasing infection rate of the elderly from the young and thus an increase in fatality rate.

  11. Avatar Bill H says:

    Fred
    What, specifically, was the “huge political blunder” (presumably related to the corona virus) the Trump made, and how is he paying for it?
    Was it locking down the economy? No, because he didn’t do that. State governors did. So what was it? Specifically please.

  12. Avatar Alves says:

    The USA already is back to an 7-day average of a little over 700 deaths per day and it will likely peak at over 900 deaths/day by mid august, at least acordingly to one of the models with the best track record thus far:
    https://covid19-projections.com/
    On the other hand, treatment did get better, so the infection fatality rate will be lower now than when things went bad in New York.

  13. Avatar Yeah, Right says:

    “You wish to believe that the virus is running wild and so you do.”
    Pointing to the lower than predicted mortality rate is not the same thing as proving that the virus is under control in the USA.
    It very clearly is not under control.
    You can argue – as you are – that the lower than expected mortality rates means that you don’t care that the disease is running wild. Fine, go ahead, it is a debatable point.
    But that you don’t care that the virus is running wild doesn’t mean that it isn’t running wild, because it very definitely is.

  14. Avatar turcopolier says:

    Yeah, right
    My position is that the actual death rate of this disease is so low for productive members of society that it does not matter much if the disease culls the herd and that it is the panic and fear that are the real problem.

  15. Avatar Eric Newhill says:

    Sir,
    Sorry. I can’t reveal the source. The figures will have be taken on faith; or not.
    However, if it helps with your faith, consider that we are approaching 4 million tested and recorded cases in the US. Consider that most Americans 75 years of age or more have some kind of serious underlying condition (diabetes, cardio-vascular, obesity, pulmonary, oncological) and then consider that there are allegedly 140K deaths (though many of us – myself included – think that figure is artificially inflated), but lets go with it for now. Then look at my figures for chance of surviving; especially elderly and with underlying conditions. Back of the envelop, if 1 million or so of the tested and recorded cases are among the elderly, then it should put you right where we are. 140K dead and most of those elderly.

  16. Avatar Eric Newhill says:

    Jag,
    I stand by the figures I posted. This article should help confirm those figures. Special attention to the Lancet graph on hospitalization rates. It doesn’t breakout the data as I did, but consider that in my figures 4.4% of males 70-79 with underlying conditions who contract the disease will die and 20.1% of those 80+ w/ underlying conditions who contract the disease will die. Think about how many Americans will have at least one underlying condition by the time they hit that age group. Reconcile what the link says about hospitalization rates by age and fatality rates. That should help you realize the correctness of my figures.
    https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200331/covid-19-death-rate-drops-still-deadly-to-seniors

  17. Avatar EEngineer says:

    @Deap
    Data corruption is the easiest way to skew any study. When your data comes from an untestable model it becomes a game of garbage in, garbage out. Martin Armstrong posted an article with a link to the original British model few weeks back and I actually went and read the source code. Largely uncommented dreck that would put out whatever number you wanted by tweaking a few constants.
    Now I’m reading that the CDC is merging the viral and antibody test results, which if true, would be a willful corruption of the data. Interestingly, I found that today at automaticearth (pretty lefty) which linked to an article at thehill (pretty righty).

  18. Avatar turcopolier says:

    Eric Newhill
    OK, since you are in the health insurance bidness, I draw the obvious conclusion.

  19. Avatar Deap says:

    ZeroHedge claims “Trump’s biggest mistake” is not firing Fauci and not being a 100% Monday Morning Quarterback on the prior Sunday.
    Bummer, too bad Nancy Pelosi was dancing around in her skimpy impeachment cheerleader team outfit, at the same time. But no excuses, ZH says. Nor has Trump been making any excuses and the world still tries to sort this out.
    ZH demands an all-seeing, all knowing, all-powerful, all-beneficent Daddy to be in sole charge. I guess Uncle Joe Biden, in the basement, is more to their liking and imperialistic persuasions.
    ZEROHEDGE…….”The key point, however, is that this whole unspeakable Lockdown Folly does not remotely stem from the “science”, as the MSM supporters of Fauci claim.
    It’s just a hair-brained experiment in social control that happened because the Donald was too weak, ill-informed, distracted, and innumerate to send Fauci and his camarilla of doctors and vaccine-peddlers packing when the mid-March guidelines were first issued by the CDC.
    Yes, the Donald’s political enemies in the ranks of big city mayors and Blue State governors have feasted upon the chum Fauci & Co have persistently tossed into the fetid waters of national politics, but that doesn’t let Trump off the hook……….”

  20. Avatar Ulenspiegel says:

    “You are a very stubborn man. You wish to believe that the virus is running wild and so you do.”
    No, in contrast to you I understand that there is a delay between infection and death of about 4 weeks, and the now increasing deaths numbers indicate an increased infection rate for the last 4 weeks.
    1) Do you really dispute this observation which BTW doas NOT depend on test strategy and levels?
    2) I do not claim that the virsus is running wild, because the now much higher number of diagnosed cases MAY be a result of better testing. However, you will have for weeks now an elevated death count of 1000-1500 per day IMHO.
    3) The opening of the US economy was a screw-up, if you are happy with the decisions of Trump it is ok for me, you pay.
    4) Your problem is that a relativly high daily infection rate will cause real trouble in autum when the next flu season starts.

  21. Avatar turcopolier says:

    ulenspiegel
    “We will see.” I am quite aware of the four week gestation period but I think Eric Newhill’s numbers are right and that there willl not be what I would consider a significant surge in deaths. This is a very big country and we have many, many people.

  22. Avatar Ulenspiegel says:

    Deap wrot: “He should sign his full name: Til Ulenspiegel’s Merry Pranks. Hat tip to composer Richard Strauss.”
    Look, when you cite then pleas correctly. 🙂
    The figure of Till Ulenspiegel is quite old the original version was quite rough/bawdy, not the sanetised version of the 19th century, that starts with the name:
    Ulen can be either “owl” (symbol of wisdom or at least cleverness) or also mean “to wipe”, Spiegel is either “mirror” or “ass”.
    The owl/mirror version is 19th century, the “wipe my ass” in the sense of kiss my ass is the original.
    And always keep in mind that you are in trouble when a jester brings better scientific arguments than “serious” people. :-))

  23. Avatar Eric Newhill says:

    Ulenspiegel,
    Your doomsday prediction is totally dependent on what demographic is becoming infected.
    My understanding is that most of the surge in infections is among the younger people and they will not die; nor, for the most part, even require hospitalization. If they do require hospitalization the majority will not need a vent. That is why deaths are going down even as infections are going up.
    The strategy should be to open the economy and protect the elderly/infirm. Both can be done. I think Florida’s experience proves that. Anecdotally, one of my hobbies is playing guitar in a band. Our drummer is the chief dietician for a large nursing home. He hasn’t been able to come out and play because he’s trying to be responsible and not contract the virus and pass it along to the residents of the home. He gets mandatory tested once or twice a week as do the other staff. If someone tests positive, then they must stay home until they are clear. That is the model.
    Something else, the most vulnerable have already died. So there is less “low hanging fruit” for the virus.
    As Col. Lang notes, I work for one of the big healthcare insurance companies and I am in the data looking at cost drivers at the clinical level (what diagnoses, procedures, demographics, hospital systems, etc). I work exclusively on ACA (Obamacare) plans now. However, I still have contacts and access to tools/reports from my days in commercial employer group plans. As you might imagine the emergence of Covid was initially perceived a potentially massive threat to our bottom line, so it has been studied thoroughly. We just aren’t seeing hospitalizations, let alone ICU/vent claims for Covid in our commercial/ACA populations. There are some showing up in our Medicare Advantage plans (that’s Medicare sold and administered by private companies – about 33% of all Medicare), but even that is not a serious cost driver. There just isn’t that much effect and those few effected were largely already costly due to their other conditions. Also, there are millions of members. Perspective is needed here. 140K dead sounds like a lot, but as the good Col. says, it is a big country.
    What we have seen is a very significant decline in elective surgeries (as expected, since those were cancelled), but also hospitalizations for conditions that medically require hospitalizations. We are concerned about the lack of medically appropriate care being delivered for cardiac, diabetes, oncology, etc. We are also concerned about the lack of screenings this year. Screenings are diagnostic and preventive encounters. While all of that has been great for our bottom line, we are certain that it is all going to come back at us hard now that healthcare is opening up again and our members who delayed care are now in worse shape than if they had received it when they first needed it. When you talk about keeping the economy shut down, you are also talking about the healthcare system – and that has serious health consequences for many people; consequences that include chronic debilitation and death. Someone who needs an aortic stent, needs one now; not in four or five months. And, yes, that is one of the many important procedures that experienced a major decline in utilization because the hospitals were either converting to Covid only mode and/or because the members (patients) were made to be too afraid to leave their homes and venture into a medical setting.
    Additionally, in the healthcare realm, psychiatric medication prescriptions are up 25% this year (I see that data myself). Drug ODs and alcohol poisonings are up. Admissions for suicide attempts have increased over prior years. So there is another very real negative impact that must be weighed against your recommended approach.
    Telemedicine looks to me as though it is a poor substitute for actually sitting face to face with a medical team. I know of a situation where a 12 year old girl died because her doctor’s office had closed due to Covid fears. She had a “stomach ache”. The call in nurse line figured it was just something that would pass and basically recommended some warm milk and sleep. Well that doesn’t cure appendicitis. That’s just one example to illustrate. When you want things shut down, then you are also agreeing to accepting such casualties. Do you understand that?

  24. Avatar BillWade says:

    Newsom says he’s letting 8000 convicts out of prison, DeBlasio boasts of the numbers of criminals he’s let out. Both these idiots want you wearing a mask all the time, couldn’t they have just given the riff-raff a mask?

  25. Avatar Yeah, Right says:

    “My position is that the actual death rate of this disease is so low for productive members of society that it does not matter much if the disease culls the herd and that it is the panic and fear that are the real problem.”
    And that is a perfectly valid argument.
    It is akin to Boris Johnson’s “take it on the chin” argument before he had his epiphany, or Jair Bolsonaro’s insistence that “it’s only a cold”.
    Odd then that the three countries that look like they will take the worse economic hit are those led by Trump, Johnson and Bolsonaro.
    Can’t imagine why.

  26. Avatar turcopolier says:

    Yeah, right
    We should have ignored it, not closed down the economy and defended the weak. But, what a wonderful chance for the Democrats.

  27. Avatar Deap says:

    Qualitative words are useless when what we need are sound quantitative numbers. “Out of control, sweeping the nation, surge, peak, spike, soar” …. are meaningless space fillersparticularly when the numbers have been goosed and cannot even be used to explain what those qualitative terms mean.
    Not a proud moment for the US right now, but very much a teaching moment. All is not lost. The promise of “universal government health care” is DOA. Thank you “government health experts” for teaching us what we needed to learn. What we really need is a new “Chicken Soup for Covid” volume.
    Pelosi won in 2018 because she threatened Trump was going to take away your Medicare and your Medicaid. Nancy, you are welcome to it.

  28. Avatar Fred says:

    Bill H,
    Remind me which chief executive agreed to a national “15 days” to slow the spread campaign? Everything stems from that. Fauci and the expert bureaucrats played Trump like a fiddle.

  29. Avatar Deap says:

    American Thinker asks:……..”Why don’t the media report the case fatality rate (CFR), the number of confirmed deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases?
    The U.S. sits at 3.8 percent, below the world average at 4.3 percent and the EU’s at 10.3 percent. Countries praised by the American left are faring worse – France at 17.3 percent, the U.K. at 15.4 percent, and the Netherlands at 11.9 percent.”………..

  30. Avatar JoeC100 says:

    Interesting new potential treatment using inhaled interferon proteins – https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/inhaled-protein-lifts-hopes-in-fight-against-virus/
    Let’s hope this looks as good in serious trials.

  31. Avatar Christian J. Chuba says:

    There is truth in in the OP. I an a chart junkie. Here is mine
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=~USA This covers the death rate per 1M using a 7 day rolling average.
    The peak was indeed 8, it reached a low of 1.76 and has crept back up to 2.3. We should use hospitalizations and death rate to monitor trends to bypass this infernal argument about ‘more testing causing more cases’.
    This graph allows you to add any number of countries that you want to use for comparisons, Sweden, Japan, Brazil, whatever.
    Of course we need to open schools. It has always been about how to open schools. We will do it in the worst possible manner because we insist on acting like we are the only country who has had to do this. We will not copy the successful countries in S.E. Asia but we might look at a few of the other loser countries in W. Europe for political reasons.

  32. Avatar Eric Newhill says:

    Deap,
    Re; media not reporting CFRs – Yes. We don’t want to mess up any opportunities for socialized medicine should the democrats take over this Fall.
    I told our friend English Outsider, back at the beginning of this covid thing, that the US would out-perform the socialized medicine countries in terms of delivering better outcomes to the infected.
    That said, to do a proper comparison we really should adjust for demographics or simply compare survival within age/gender bands. I don’t know if that info is available to you. Then again, it might be somewhat moot to break out the data that way because in the EU, like in the US, those dying are elderly. The EU reports that.
    Also, there is the issue of how cases and deaths are being counted; are the rules comparable across countries? I am very certain that some not insignificant number of cases in the US at the beginning, when tests were not widely available, were falsely “presumed” to be covid. Then there is the problem that in the US some of the tests appear to be inaccurate and/or the labs are monkeying with the results. Finally, I am positive that a not insignificant number of US covid deaths aren’t actually covid deaths; presumed covid, but being, in reality, common flu/pneumonia or some even some other cause entirely, but the lab or hospital saying that covid was present and with hospital seeking the greater reimbursement that a covid diagnosis brings with it. Same with states seeking relief money. So a lot of confounds that may or may not be present in EU data or present to different extents or even different directions.

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