"Another video says that Hezbollah could soon have the capability to fly a missile onto an Israeli address as simply as if it was using the popular Waze navigation app. The propaganda clip even uses an animation of the app itself to drive its point home. Ironically, the video doesn't note that Waze was invented by an Israeli company.
These information operations come against a backdrop of real-world conflict. Israel has championed its operation last weekend against alleged Iranian-commanded Hezbollah drone operators in Syria when it flattened a compound with air strikes.
Israel has been coy about who has been responsible for at least four mysterious air strikes against Iranian-backed militia in Iraq. And silent about Lebanese and Hezbollah allegations that Israel attacked a Hezbollah site in southern Beirut with small drones, also at the weekend." CNN
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The IDF appears to have overcome its long-standing fear of "another 2006" and to be preparing for war against Hizbullah and indeed against all of Lebanon.
In that war the IDF used heavy American made artillery to attack Hizbullah's fortified belt of villages in southern Lebanon (the Tabbouleh Line). Following that, IDF armor and infantry sought to advance into that fortified belt but were met by barrier systems that canalized the tanks and troops into pre-planned killing zones where they were chopped up with Iranian made and product improved anti-tank missiles and aimed fire placed on the infantry from the firing apertures of fortified basements and other such positions. Those IDF infantry who managed to entered the villages found themselves face to face with Hizbullah infantry equipped with body armor and night vision equipment, The whole defensive system was tied together for communications with SIGINT proof buried armored signal cable.
After a cease fire the Hizbullahis moved their fortified line back to the north a few kilometers and re-built it better. Tabbouleh Line II?
In the midst of this assault on the Tabbouleh Line the IAF ranged far and wide across all of Lebanon attacking infrastructure targets in an obvious attempt to intimidate the Lebanese into abandonment of Hizbullah. That failed. The Lebanese showed no such inclination and that support was rewarded by Hizbullah with a prioritization of re-construction funds to Christian villagers.
Oh, yes, the IDF Chief of Staff was fired for his failures.
Since 2006 the IDF has brooded over the ever worsening strategic threat posed by Hizbullah artillery rockets, guided missiles and armed UAVs. My SWAG would be that Hizbullah artillery command now has something between 50k and 100k of such weapons in firing positions and storage behind the Tabbouleh Line II, which is now reinforced with many veterans of the Syria campaign in which Hizbullah troops have developed a lot of skill. and demonstrated their courage.
The Israeli strategic problem is that they cannot prevent a salvo or salvos of thousands of these weapons into the northern half of Israel. They can't break through on the ground quickly enough to do that and their air force will be faced with a lot of antiaircraft fire. This tends to degrade pilots' ability to press home attacks against individual weapon systems.
Nevertheless, the IDF seems to have decided to "grasp the nettle." Good luck sons of the Maccabees! Good Luck!
Would the US respond to mass Israeli civilian casualties with intervention in the fight? All the world wonders. pl
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/30/middleeast/israel-lebanon-tensions-intl/index.html
Nasrallah has already said that Hezbollah will retaliate for last week’s drone attacks, so there will be a response.
The question is–What will Bibi do afterwards??
This isn’t 2006 when Hezbollah was just developing its missile arsenal. In 2019, they are fully-armed and ready to go. Check out this excerpt from a WA Post article in 2016—
Ten years ago, Hezbollah fired 4,000 short-range, relatively crude rockets at Israel, about 100 a day, killing some 50 Israeli civilians. Today, the group has 100,000 rockets, including thousands of more accurate mid-range weapons with larger warheads capable of striking anywhere in Israel, including Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, according to Israeli army commanders and military analysts in Israel and Lebanon…
Nasrallah warned that Hezbollah rockets could strike ammonia plants at the port in Haifa in any future fight, saying that the damage would be equivalent to an atomic bomb and could lead to the deaths of 800,000 people….
“Haifa is just one of many examples,” Nasrallah said. “The leaders of Israel understand that the resistance has the ability to cover the entirety of occupied Palestine with missiles. We must keep this capability because it acts as a deterrent for the third Lebanon war.” WA Post, 2016
Unfortunately, Nasrallah needs to demonstrate to Israel’s hawkish leaders that– from now on– their will be consequences for Israel’s attacks.
Deterrents may be an imperfect solution, but– given the circumstances–they are the best solution available.
Colonel,
Hasn’t Israel used the Samson option as a psychological warfare tool against both our U.S. and their perceived Arab enemies.
For fear of the Samson option, we the U.S. intervene when we should stay out of it and let the Israelis get their noses bloodied.
The IDF is not a professional military by any standards, they are a IMO a bunch of thugs in a uniform who prey on unarmed innocent old women and men who they either head butt with the stock of their weapons, or shoot innocent 18 year old nurses trying to render aid to those they shot behind their reinforced barricades. Tabbouleh Line I showed they have no stomach for real combat. I expect no less the same when they go against the Tabbouleh Line II.
Sir
I’m willing to wager that Trump will order the US military to enter that war on the side of Bibi.
IMO, Bibi knows Trump is weak to zionist & neocon instigated media hysteria. This will be his “war president” moment. He’ll have the full backing of Chuckie and Nancy and the rest of the Congressional crew as AIPAC calls in their check. I recall well in the heat of the Russia Collusion media hysteria when he ordered the missile strike in Syria how the media were calling it his presidential moment.
I believe Bibi for his own domestic political reasons as well as knowing that Trump is a fully bought and paid for Zionist asset has been probing what he can instigate that will cause the US to do his work. My question to this committee of military experts is what will this war look like? How will Syria and Iran respond, since both have an obligation to Hezbollah? And what will Putin do with his forces in the middle of a war zone?
Per Elijah Magnier’s tweets it appears Hizbollah has recently retaliated in a tit-for-tat way. H claims there were casualties but Bibi denies it, which EM taks as a signal that Israel wants to deescalate.
https://twitter.com/ejmalrai
A part of me still thinks that Trump would like nothing better than Israel to get itself into a war it can’t get out of. And if he does it, it will be done soon since his re-election isn’t guaranteed
I wonder if the Israeli Government has decided that time is not on their side, leading to a decision to act now?
The game changer for Israel would be the resolution of the Syrian civil war.
That would result in a battle hardened and capable SAA being free to operate along the Southern border and on the flank of any Israeli incursion into Lebanon.
Then there is the possibility of Syria extending its air defence network to include Lebanon.
Then there is the question of money to be made in reconstructing Syria, building transport infrastructure for the Iran to Mediterranean leg of OBOR as well as perhaps other projects- this economic activity increases the political power of Syria, Iran, Lebanon and China.
All in All, perhaps Bibi has decided to go now.
Col. Lang
Is there any circumstance that you see where the US will not get militarily involved if thousands are killed in Israel even if it is in response to an Israeli provocation?
It would seem that the pressure on any US president would be immense. Hezbollah after all has been demonized for so long as an Islamic terrorist organization. The support for military intervention here would be universal and bipartisan. And the ziocon media would be in full on escalation propaganda mode showing images of Israeli kids in rubble and malevolent images of the evil Nasrallah.
The likely only opposition voices would be Ron Paul, Pat Buchanan and Tulsi Gabbard and they will be maligned quickly as irrelevant.
If the IDF general command has any say in the matter they are telling Bibi – DO NOT wage a total war in Lebanon. The only way Israel can keep Hezballah defanged is to occupy most of Lebanon – something the IDF and it reliance on reserve soldiers is NOT equiped to do except for a very short time. Southern Lebanon is crisscrossed with hundreds of tunnels, an issue where IAF saturation bombing proved to be ineffective. The IDF and their tanks were hit with withering fire from the rear and IDF operational discipline broke down quickly. There is no cohesion between the Professional soldiers in the IDF and the reservists and this makes large scale operations very difficult. Among the professional IDF, you would be hard pressed to find a single soldier who wants to fight Hezballah again.
I think Trump would gladly join Israel in a war in Lebanon and that would turn the tide in Israel’s favor temporarily. However, Hezballah would not give a moments peace to any Israeli or U.S. soldier on the ground in Lebanon and the entire population of Lebanon would support Hezballah to throw the invaders out of the country. It would be a bloody occupation for however long it lasted.
undeserved braggadocio is a common trait one finds in a sub group of israelis. having lived in countries in africa, europe and south america and having run into quite a few israelis along the way, cocky arrogance seems to be a character trait they learn young and never outgrow.
no idea why nor do i care one way or the other, only to note pl is right they will need all the luck they can get and bullshit repeated by them on cnn won’t get the job done nor will it in 2019 fool any one (as it might have 10 years ago) least of all hezbollah.
its not 2006 and arguably they are not qualitatively any stronger than they were then. the same can not be said of hezbollah.
it seems to be a cultural trait one sees in both faltering empires and nation state used to being on top, they are the ones doing the telling while others do the listening.
over reach, over extension, over indebtedness and an over blown sense of ones self estimation all while the ground underneath has shifted away. you see it in bolton, pompeo, bibi and katz.
So the IDF has to penetrate the first line, which they barely managed the first time, then they face a second line of prepared defenses? How much recent combat experience do they have? If I recall correctly at least some of the Lebanese have served in Syria in one capacity or another. It certainly wasn’t West Bank occupation duty.
Trump will do as Sheldon and Bibi command.
Dear Colonel,
It seems as if Israel is ready to re-fight the last war, and Hezbollah has prepared for the next. More importantly, if war is politics by other means, I see no clear Israeli political objectives nor any indication as to why they think a do over of 2006 will lead to a better outcome.
Absent contributing an occupation force for Lebanon, what would US contribute? Bombing targets in Lebanon? Israel will have taken out all significant targets in a few days and long term bombing changes little. I am sure Bolton is whispering in Trumps ear that Hezbollah will surrender once the might of the US enters the fray.
fred
The original Tabouleh line was abandoned after 2006 because the UN got in its way. The Hizbullah has done a great deal of fighting in Syria. I thought I made that clear.
Why would the IDF choose to head butted the defensive Tabouleh Line again, the Wehrmacht opted to bypass entirely the Maginot line and were in Paris in how many days.
i wonder if hez 2019 have better air defense capabilities to shot down IAF jets , or ground launched cruise missiles targetting IAF airfields ? or Drone swarms targetting IDF support troops / logistics
it’s been 13 years since 2006 and the IDF ground force still too reliant on IAF.
Trump has not started any new wars during his administration and he probably wants to keep it that way. Bebi needs a war to be reelected but it doesn’t help Trump. He wants to be reelected too.
The support would be bipartisan but would it be universal?
Tulsi Gabbard will fold like a cheap suit.
According to South Front, Hezbollah has struck back at Israel in Galilee:
“In the afternoon of September 1, Hezbollah fighters destroyed a military vehicle of the Israeli military with an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) near Avivim military post in Upper Galilee.
The Lebanese group said that the attack was carried out by a unit named after Hassan al-Zabib and Yasser Dahir, two of the group’s fighters who were killed in Israeli airstrikes on the Syrian capital, Damascus, last week.
Hezbollah said that several Israeli soldiers were killed or injured in the ATGM strike. However, this is yet to be confirmed….
A day earlier, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah vowed to respond to the Beirut drone attack and to the Israeli airstrikes on Damascus.
The situation along the separation line between Lebanon and Israel will likely escalate further in the upcoming few hours.”
https://southfront.org/hezbollah-strikes-back-destroy-israeli-military-vehicle-in-upper-galilee/
IMO, Hezbollah had no choice but to retaliate.
JohnB
Not the same thing. The German objective was the total defeat of France. The IDF would want to cripple Hizbullah and split the Lebanese from them.
One of my nephews is an F-16 pilot in the IAF and there is significant conerns about Hezballah’s limited air defense capabilities. Israeli intelligence on Hezballah’s capabililiies and location is very poor. The IAF has lost several planes in Syria in recent years and are loath to fly over Lebanon proper. The usual tactic is for the IAF planes to fly out to sea and fire missiles from there. Without good intelligence the IAF bombing runs usually end up churning up a lot of dirt.
Universal means the majority across all geographies from the two coasts to the mid-west and south. The people have been conditioned for decades that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization.
The only way to judge a person is how they acted in the past under similar conditions. Tulsi has shown courage of conviction in the past in opposing the very popular Obama’s Syria policy of supporting & arming Al Qaeda when it was not popular to do that and she’s paying for it by being labeled an Assad apologist among the establishment. And resigning from the DNC to endorse Bernie.
Now of course you are entitled to your own opinion which doesn’t have to be based on any facts.
Hah! And the IDF is certainly no Wehrmacht – not even close!
What path does the IDF take to bypass the Tabouleh line? The one through the Med or the one through Syria? Or can we expect an airborne assault on Beirut that goes over the line?
Geography is a “problematic” thing.
A war with Israel could allow SAA to negotiate a peace deal with AQ and consorts without needing to conquer the whole of Idlib. Could even allow SDF to come in from the cold.
ps. The peace deal for AQ would be more a capitulation with dignity.
Johnb,
So they are going to go full Iwo Jima and attack by sea or swing around and invade across Syria? They don’t have the sea lift for the former and will involve a couple other countries in their war doing the latter. How many allies are they going to be able to call in on an unprovoked war everyone on Earth knows they want the US to win for them?
Given this discussion, it throws a bit more weight on the side of the recent air strikes by IAF in Iraq and Lebanon as an initial nibble, weighing responses from various parties in order to adjust course.
I’m quite confident that there are enough munitions that are deliverable from unmanned systems to waste Hizbulla’s defenses.
The question to be weighed is whether Hizbullah can count on Israel’s uncertainty as a deterrent to a massive attack against Lebanon. The Samson effect cuts both ways if Iran jumps in. Unless tptb decide to go with theatre-level weaponry, what is left of Israel even if Iran and Lebanon are squashed?
Even more interesting, if Trump jumps in with his typically flaccid braggadocio, does his action endanger Israel by falling short of the killer punch?
stumpy
“I’m quite confident that there are enough munitions that are deliverable from unmanned systems to waste Hizbullah’s defenses. ” Do you have any qualifications with which to make such a judgment? What unmanned weapons so you mean?
CK
they lack the sealift or airlift for those kinds of envelopments. Their bewt bet is t swing wide to the right and try to come in from Syria. Heh! Heh! They should try that one.
charly
i am completely opposed to that. the jihadis should be killed to the last scumbag.
Sir, cruise missiles and drones. I read.
”undeserved braggadocio is a common trait one finds in a sub group of israelis. having lived in countries in africa, europe and south america and having run into quite a few israelis along the way, cocky arrogance seems to be a character trait they learn young and never outgrow.”
I agree. They are like monkeys beating their chest and pretending to be big Silverbacks.
But Israelis are encouraged to be too big for their britches by our elected public servants…
”I think it is important in the 21st century to send the message that if youa are trying to destroy iarael you will have to go thru us and it will not turn out well for you”….Lindsey Graham
”I have said to people when they ask me, If this Capitol crumbled to the ground, the one thing that would remain would be our commitment to our Israel aid, I don’t even call it our aid, our cooperation with Israel. That’s fundamental to who we are.”……..Nancy Pelosi
” As I have said so often, Israel’s survival and success is and must be a central tenet of U.S. foreign policy. Some believe the US should be even handed in our Israel ME policy. I do not”…….Steny Hoyer
More US money will flow to Israel
“Israel in talks with
US for aid in case
of existential threat ”
– report
The Jerusalem Post
jdledell
Do you think Netanyahu will be elected? He seems desperate.
And what will happen if he isn’t?
Walrus,
Not just air defense, but also EW coverage over Lebanon. Its one thing for an airplane or two to operate in Lebanon on a pop up basis, completely another for sustained operations if Syria and or Russia creates the type of EW environment that is in place over Syria (which gives the US pause in its missions).
That said, hubris and F-35 propaganda (from Lockheed Martin) about its performance, could lead Israel to overplay its hand. The complete failure of the Trump’s Tomahawk volley into Syria provided a window into how EW has developed in the last decades (EW advances much faster than missiles – one is mostly hardware and one is mostly software) while our peers have been preparing for when the US stopped chasing jihadis and technicals across the sand and turned its bellicosity in their direction.
Personally, I think the horse already left the barn.
Where are the Hezbollah pics of the destroyed vehicle.They would have made great propaganda unless of course the trophy system was used and the vechile was bait.A deterence of the anti tank missiles who would surely have a signicant effect on morale.They say artillery responded to the kornet attack because the trophy system can relay the launch position to artillery.
Trophy system. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trophy_(countermeasure)
Yes, Likud led my Netanyahu will garner the most seats in the Knesset. My guess is somewhere in the 33-34 seat range. His promise to annex Jewish areas in the West Bank is designed to get the Likud more right wing votes but I think he is kidding himself. The right wingers are going to vote for tried and true right wing parties like Bennett’s Jewish Home party. I suspect he will be able to form a coalition by including right wing parties by promising a quick annexation of Area C of the West Bank, about 60% of the land. This will make life for the remaining Palestinians extremely difficult as Israeli check points dot the West Bank making travel and economic viability between Palestinian towns difficult to impossible. Unfortunately, a Two State solution has lost a majority of Jewish support. The Jews in the area believe that Trump will strongly support such an annexation and institute support for Israel economically when much of the rest of the world ressts such a move politicaly and economically. The Trump Peace Plan for the area is strictly getting Arab countries to fund a build up of the Palestinian economy with absolute no rights or citizenship for West Bank Palestinians.
stumpy, If Israeli saturation bombing of Lebanon achieved nothing in 2006 (except defeat), why exactly do you argue it will have an effect this time?
Moreover, there likely will be a highly complex EW environment, with which Israel has no experience. Did you notice at all what happened to the US Tomahawk volley? Those missiles you admire or worship (missiles – what a novel idea), without IDF on the ground for spotters and to consolidate gains (and die) will push dirt.
Try and name ANY case where air power has been decisive politically without ground forces. You cant for a reason.
Funnel the attackers into the cauldron. Then just decided to leave a retreat exit available or not.
One of the more interesting things that has been hinted at over the last year is that FRS has the capability to spoof as well as shut down the GPS system. Imagine a GPS spoof that tells the IDF missiles that they are 150 km to far north.
To update a quote from Field Marshall Generalissimo Alexander Suvorov: “The bullet is a mad thing; only the bayonet knows what it is about,” an accurate assessment in the 1840’s when that was writ; smooth bore muskets and 90 second reload times versus three foot of cold steel and troopers who were trained in its use. Today it would be that the missile is a mad thing and only the bullet knows what it is about. The more things change the more they look exactly alike.
Some days the finger types, the eyes read and the brain farts simultaneously. The Suvorov quote was from his Science of Winning and was written in the 1780s. He died in 1800.