"… he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.
The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption, and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industry-wide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill." politico
******
"Consumption and hiring started to tick up “in gross terms, not in net terms,” Furman said, describing the phenomenon as a “partial rebound.” The bounce back “can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. It will look like a V.”" politico
————–
Well, pilgrims, there you have it. If Politico thinks so, it must be so. Do I think the Democratic Party grandees are deliberately suppressing the economy as long as they can and bitching and whining as the GOP tries to crank up the machine? Yes, I do. Is that criminal? Should it be criminal? IMO it should be but to prevent the disintegration of the Great Republic, we must not treat it as such.
IMO Trump now realizes that he was snookered by the medical equivalent of the Holy Office. Our Auto da Fe has been impressive and nearly fatal but not quite. Trump's statement that he will never shut the economy down again indicates to me that the "scales have fallen" from his eyes.
Are his attempts too little and too late? That could be. Or, maybe not.
The brawny beast that is America is gathering itself up, and looking once again at what CAN BE, not at what is forbidden us by the Globalist nitwits who would destroy us and make us into building blocks for their utopia. pl
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470
“Rarely, there are situations in which we reach consensus in science, even a momentary consensus. Some defend the “Big Bang” and the theory of evolution, others, including myself, are skeptical of them. Some defend with data and papers the central role of men in global warming, others defend, with the same data and papers, that human activity is irrelevant. Scientists are human beings, therefore, skeptics and enquirers who can and should speak for themselves, like all scientists have the right to do, but NEVER A SCIENTIST OR A GROUP OF THEM CAN DECLARE TO BE AUTHORIZED TO SPEAK IN THE NAME OF SCIENCE!”
https://conexaopolitica.com.br/ultimas/brazilian-scientists-and-academics-write-an-open-letter-on-the-science-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/
From the article:
“And then toward the end of October, we will get GDP growth for the third quarter, at an annualized rate, and it could be double-digit positive economic growth. So these will be the best jobs and growth numbers ever.”
These democratic strategists must hope people will not remember who ordered them not to work by declaring them non-essential – and why now of all times we need to defend China and her reputation.
What I don’t understand is how prolonging the lockdown of reliably blue states like my own WA furthers the Democrat election strategy — assuming it is what you suggest.
It seems to me that when people in those states feel the totalitarian pinch on their own livelihood, they might be more inclined to vote against the party that’s doing it to them, tipping the state into the purple or even red column.
Same goes for the battleground states. Seems like a surefire way to throw the election, not win it.
Can someone explain how this is supposed to work?!?
Sir,
One thing to note are all the diffusion indexes will show large upticks, because of the base effects.
U6 will likely be more stubborn.
The best comparisons will be unit volumes relative to prior to lockdown. For example, number of flights or gas consumption prior to and after lockdown ends.
One indicator that I track is used car prices. It is starting a nice uptick particularly for full size trucks. With all the incentives and financing options I would bet we’ll see growth in even new truck volumes .
On the flip side, IMO, the increased debt and the trillions that the Fed printed up for Wall St will constrain growth in the medium term.
Col. Lang,
With respect, I don’t agree with your view of what has happened from an economic and medical sense although I agree with your view of the political machinations of the democrats.
I said when all this started that the economy would bounce back quickly. I still believe it will. I also believe that the lockdown was necessary, but now it is thought possible to open up because the medical system and logistics have now caught up with the pandemic. The lockdowns bought us time.
Fauci, Birx and Co. were talking of easing up three weeks ago at one of President Trumps press conferences, I watched most of them live. I don’t see the medicos as malevolent globalists or anything other than public health officials doing their jobs under great pressure and public scrutiny. I don’t think they have drunk any of the numerous glasses of kool aid that were proffered. They appear to me to have stuck stubbornly to the science.
We too are easing lockdown rules – allegedly in “a controlled and measured manner” but that is actually BS. Everyone is sick of being cooped up and can’t wait. We too have one State leader – a leftist “democrat” that is dragging their feet in Queensland for political reasons, our equivalent of Florida. Their borders are currently closed – when they reopen there will be an absolute avalanche of tourists heading North, us included, to get some warm weather, that will provide a huge economic spike.
Let’s hope we can get vaccines moving PDQ.
Problem is things were frothy before covid, financial markets were well overextended, the deficit was out of control, oil won’t come back anytime soon. In many ways Trump is a lucky general, gets to blame the slowdown on the virus and any faltering in the recovery on Dem governors.
Here is a link to a poll that suggests the globalists have screwed up again (see bottom 1/3 of the link). A large % of Americans polled say they will now avoid products made in China and would be willing to pay more for the same product if it’s made in the USA. They also think that trade restrictions and tariffs are a good idea. Basically, they like the Trumpian model. China Joe and his boy Hunter are going to be perceived as being on the wrong side of this issue by Trump.
https://fticommunications.com/covid-19/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/FTI-Shifting-Expectations-II-Topline-Results.pdf
walrus
you are right. We do not agree. IMO the country wide shutdown was never necessary. What was needed was a strategy of protection for the vulnerable. The rest could have taken care of themselves with anti-flu like treatment while therapies and vaccines were developed.
Corkyagain
Yes. In their contempt for those they think “deplorable, they f—-d up.
LondonBob
The Democrats deserve it and BTW I don’t agree with any of the negatives you state with regard to the pre-COVID state of things. You just don’t like Trump. Neither do I
LondonBob
Lucky is better than skillful. But I disagree about trump. He is a lot more than just lucky.
CorkyAgain,
It is the strategy (poorly conceived) of people whose ideology blinds them to extant reality, and who think they can mold that reality to their whims through sheer fervency of their belief in their moral superiority to other, “lesser types.” I can’t think of a single historical example where such a strategy has worked out, but there you have it. Then again, according to them, history also fits into that concept of “malleable reality” as they see it. They are the makers of history in their own estimation, rather than part of and subject to it. This is why the Left has never been able to grapple with, and is often outright hostile to, the notion of unforeseen consequences.
This past weekend our hotel parking lots were pretty full, this is normally a slow time in SW Florida. It’s likely restaurants will be allowed 100% capacity seating with bars opening this coming Monday.
Reasonable people who want a real economy in the USA should all be voting for President Trump. If he wins, and I think he will, we’re going to have a real boom as smart EU money moves into USA equities, particularly the NASDAQ.
Trump is the Charlie Brown of American political history.
How many more footballs will he make a go at before (and after) November?
LondonBob,
” blame the slowdown on the virus ”
Not gonna happen. He’s going to blame the Democrats who issued all those EO declaring who was essential and who was “seperate but equal”. He’ll blame China, rightfully so, for spreading this as far and wide in the West as possible; he’ll blame the academics and professional “resistance” within and without the government for their incompetence and intransigence.
Corky,
“Seems like a surefire way to throw the election, not win it.”
it doesn’t matter who votes, it only matters now who counts them. Thus the statewide mailings of ballots to maximize ballot harvesting. At the very least lots of local elections will get stolen, probably a congressional one too, even if WA doesn’t go for Trump in November.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3086177/coronavirus-uses-same-strategy-hiv-dodge-immune-response-chinese
“Both viruses remove marker molecules on the surface of an infected cell that are used by the immune system to identify invaders, the researchers said in a non-peer reviewed paper posted on preprint website bioRxiv.org on Sunday. They warned that this commonality could mean Sars-CoV-2, the clinical name for the virus, could be around for some time, like HIV…that the coronavirus was showing “some characteristics of viruses causing chronic infection”.”
It appears that an Intelligence report that’s come out regarding the CCP and their virus by French Intelligence (DGSE) isn’t getting the traction it deserves.
Eleven years, ,‘eleven years’ BEFORE the EU signed off on the PRC/CCP Wuhan lab construction, French DGSE warned that the PRC/CCP’s lab was a construction leak and bio-weapon making facility disaster waiting to happen.
Why was nobody listening at the time? Where were the FIVE EYES in all of this, were they ignoring French Intelligence’s warning, what? Where was the CIA in this? They’re supposed to be the ‘external’ watchdog, right? It was the Tenet/Goss handover time frame, 2004. But surely the DGSE warnings had to have been ‘flagged’ by Langley for a closer scrutiny, right? What was DIA’s read on this at the time?
…”French diplomatic and security advisers, who argued that the Chinese reputation for poor bio-security could lead to a catastrophic leak.
They also warned that Paris could lose control of the project, and even suggested that Beijing could harness the technology to make biowarfare weapons.”…
Another interesting cavet in the article relates to P4 labs everywhere (including U.S. facilities)…..“A source told the newspaper: ‘What you have to understand is that a P4 [high-level bio-security] laboratory is like a nuclear reprocessing plant. It’s a bacteriological atomic bomb.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8351113/Wuhan-virus-lab-signed-Michel-Barnier-2004-despite-French-intelligence-warnings.html
An interesting development yesterday: Twitter have flagged a couple of Trump’s tweets on mail-in ballots as “Misleading”. A link at the bottom of each tweet says “Get the facts about mail-in ballots” and directs you to a piece written by Twitter on the subject quoting CNN & WaPo as having contrary views to the President – hardly news in itself.
Are we seeing the beginning of another insurance policy, in case the economy recovers? It appears to put Trump in a bind, as shutting down or sanctioning Twitter as a whole would not only deny Trump his (until yesterday) unfiltered comms channel to his base, but also invite cries of censorship by the MSM. If he does nothing, what is to stop Twitter ‘correcting’ more of this messages? In a later tweet Trump directly accused Twitter of “..interfering in the 2020 Presidential Election”. It will be very interesting to see how this develops. Here is the first of the offending tweets:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1265255835124539392
@Barbara
If Israel, Mexico, Great Britain, China, Ukraine, Canada, et.al can interfere in American elections, and the USA can interfere in the elections of any nation it wishes, why should the Masters and Commanders of the internet be forbidden the same hobby?
Have you never watched Network?
https://americanrhetoric.com/MovieSpeeches/moviespeechnetwork4.html
Same as it ever was.
I actually quite like Trump, despite his many failings. Perhaps the political class should reflect more on why such a buffoonish character is able to outwit them and can even seem statesman like on immigration and foreign policy compared to them. Ultimately I hope for all our sakes Trump is a John the Baptist and a greater man steps forward in due course.
The gold price was already rising, the repo market was rumbling and the deficit reaching record levels before covid. Many blue collar jobs will, thankfully, snap back, but the white collar job losses, the bankruptcies and stresses in the banking system are just starting. The big issue will be how to right the fiscal situation, that is when things will likely get ugly.
LondonBob,
Yes, the poor debt bill will have to be paid. Will that affect “free” college, “free” health care and “free” UBI? Those might blow Biden’s VP’s budget.
” white collar job losses”
Which ones are those, government declared “essential” jobs or the other kind?
“statesman like on immigration”
Immigration is our strength!, especially when our own state governments has declared millions “non-essential”. How come we never hear about the need for China to have open borders; perhaps Zimbabwe could benefit from a few million new immigrants, no?
Colonel,
One way the Democrats will most probably use to attempt to ‘steal the election’ from President Trump will be their use of contact tracers. In addition to HR6666 adding funding for contact tracers, there is also the use of NGO funding of the contact tracers. NGO’s like the Clinton Foundation, George Soros’s Open Society, also we have the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation who stand to make billions if they can get Trump out of of their way and paving the way for their New World Order (NWO) Globalist buddies. Don’t forget the NWO planners like the Rockefeller Foundation who laid down a road-map a few years back (which they’ve tried hard to scrub from the internet) for the NWO planners like the U.N. to follow to subjugate our U.S. to their NWO tyranny. The NWO planner aka the U.N. has not scrubbed their NWO agenda from the internet, but instead flaunt it blatantly in everyone’s face. Agenda 21 aka 2030,etc..
One thing to note, if you listen to Fauci, Clinton, and other NWO types, they keep mentioning September 2020 over and over again. Which begs the question, just exactly ‘what’ are they planning or have planned just before the November election to take place?
Why the NWO Globalists fear we the U.S. citizenry is that we have the ability to defend ourselves with our firearms ownership, as it gives us the ability to physically push back against their NWO jack-boots. If the NWO Globalists can turn our attention to survival only mindsets, then we will be so busy trying to keep from starving to death and just survive, that we won’t organize, protest, and set up physical road-blocks against their NWO Globalist’s planned tyranny. Or so the Globalist crap-heads think anyways.
Now back to the subject at hand, the contact tracers route by the NWO/Globalist Dems. See below links:
https://www.mintpressnews.com/massachusetts-contact-tracing-partners-in-health-clinton/267534/
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/05/26/7-ways-dnc-will-use-contact-tracers-for-biden-campaign-oust-trump/
If you’re waiting for Hertz to liquidate its cars at fire sale prices, you might be waiting for a long time….
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1266097698526113792?s=21
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/taibbi-covid-19-bailout-wall-street-997342/
This is what oligarchy looks like, while many keep looking at issues through partisan and left-right goggles.
LondonBob,
What’s your take on this:
UK uses Feudal System law to seize £150 million from bank accounts
https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/uk-uses-feudal-system-law-to-seize-150-million-from-bank-accounts-27825/