"This is not the outcome Democrats expected.
Despite many bold predictions of a rout in which Democrats gained (or re-gained) Trumpian red territory of 2016, as of early Wednesday only one state — Arizona — had flipped from red to blue. Six states remain outstanding: Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Assuming North Carolina and Georgia have slipped away from Biden — Georgia is not out of reach for him — and that Nevada remains blue, the best-case scenario for the former vice president is a 290-electoral vote victory. That’s more than George W. Bush achieved in his two successful campaigns (271 in 2000 and 286 in 2004), but fewer than Barack Obama (365 in 2008 and 332 in 2012) and Donald Trump (304 in 2016).
A win, of course, is a win. But if Biden is victorious, it will be under radically curtailed circumstances from what Democrats had assumed.
There are few hints in the 2020 results of a realignment akin to what Ronald Reagan achieved when he made Jimmy Carter a one-term president in 1980 and ushered in the era of modern conservatism. There is no sense that Biden has reformed and re-invented the Democratic Party to be more competitive the way Bill Clinton did in 1992, when he defeated George H.W. Bush. There aren’t yet hints that Biden has assembled a new coalition the way that Obama did in 2008.
Biden lost ground with Black voters and Latinos, though he gained some ground with white voters. Realignments are generally built around concrete ideas and specific policy platforms. But this campaign was always a referendum on Trump, rather than an affirmative endorsement of Biden and his agenda. That dynamic already cut against Biden claiming a strong positive mandate. He needed a crushing rejection of Trump to strengthen his case." Ryan Lizza
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Well, pilgrims, "is a puzzlement." It seems that Trump has lost (subject to litigation for constitutionality and fraud) but the GOP has actually won broadly speaking. The down ballot results are sadly disappointing for the left. There is still the matter of control of the senate … If the Dems win both run-offs in Georgia, we would have a tied senate 50-50. That would be a bad scene from my POV. With a Republican senate the worst excesses of the 3rd world style yearnings of the Squadies can be restrained, but every move toward across the board Democrat control would push toward Bolshevik re-organization of American society.
Donald Trump put up one hell of a fight in the campaign. No one could have worked harder. The huddled masses , abandoned and scorned by the elites, rallied to him as their unlikely protector. "We love you" will echo in my head, chanted by thousands of my fellow Deplorables.
I think it is fair to say that women defeated Trump. He has not the image that they want to see in their heads of a momma's boy still under momma's wing. No, he is more like a rogue elephant and that killed him with a lot of women.
I have to make a decision about continuing SST. pl
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/biden-future-if-wins-434013
I don’t think Trump ever really had that many women voters in the last election either. It seems independents went for Republican Senators, but not for Trump. In four years they can probably take back the presidency and retain the Senate, but the House might remain difficult to win.
Unlike the Democrats, I don’t expect any Republicans to march on Washington with pink hats for Tara Reade or stoop so low as to call Joe Biden a Communist Chinese agent. No, I expect Joe Biden to fumble his presidency into the hands of Kamala Harris who has about as much charm as Harry Truman. Republicans just need to make sure they’re not running Thomas Dewey and find someone who can rally supporters the way Trump did.
I for one hope you will continue SST. I may disagree with you on domestic politics, but I am with you on your foreign policy assessments.
And your military history (and current military events) posts and comments are priceless IMO.
Col:
The whiny, wine drinking, white women.
As a member of the category “women”, I find myself wondering who are they that prefer an invalid to a fighter? Who are they who don’t find internet censorship or the conversion of the press into a national, Democratic (big “D”) propaganda instrument threatening?
Would they go for something more in the Clint Eaastwood model – silent and deadly? But when the whole media establishment is aligned against a president, he is going to have to represent hisself. So Clint wouldn’t stand a chance.
Based on NYT exit polls, for whatever they are worth, one might contend that the degreed class did it, too. NYT shows 55%/42% Biden/Trump split among that group, whereas women/men polls at 56%/43%. Women are a larger portion of the electorate, so more impact.
Curiously, NYT also has a question about white only, college graduates. There, only white male college graduates broke for Biden 50% over Trump 48%. White women college graduates actually break barely for Trump 50% over Biden 49%. Of course, the white, non-college graduates, both men and women, gave a larger vote share to Trump. The polled, non-college men voted Trump by almost 20% points more than degreed men.
It is too bad NYT offers only nationally aggregated stats for their breakdown. I’d guess that in some states, esp red states, it would show more women supporting Trump.
Can anyone find anywhere that the NYT, or anyone else, shows the actual winner, state by state, based on exit polls? Always an interesting comparison to official results. If the exits don’t match the results, how useful are the exit voter analyses? Or how true are the official results?
I don’t know which is more distressing – the thought that an attempt to pull off a coup may have finally succeeded via election corruption, or that one of the most uninspiring hacks and decades-long professional politician who made people sit in little white circles was more appealing to voters.
I wonder how easy it’ll be to pack the Supreme Court and to grant PR and DC statehood?
Trump was an incumbent & lost. Bad form.
He ran a tone-deaf campaign rivaling Hillary’s.
“I have to make a decision about continuing SST”
I for one hope you keep it going and keep in the fight.
akapatience
It will depend on who runs the senate.
All
My decision to back Trump was altogether a result of the Democrats’ hard left turn and my desire to not see my country bolshevized. Biden is a nothing. He does not matter. The neo-Bolshevists are what matter
“The neo-Bolshevists are what matter”. So true but the regular folk don’t yet know. My neighbor, a very hard working man and father of 3, didn’t vote at all as he didn’t care for Trump or Biden. Kamala never entered his mind.
smoke
It is my opinion after four years of observation that women (Black, White, degreed or not) were the margin of defeat for Trump.
I hope you continue the blog for the reasons mentioned by Leith. I also find that the rallies with scarecrows in crop circles was an indication of the real appeal of the party and helps to draw the fraud inference along with Biden’s own performance. Another indication is the down ballot victories. Many of those manufacturing thousands of forged ballots will not have taken the time to cast votes for the lesser offices, thus the House was somewhat protected from the fraud.
I am curious at what you mean concretely by « seeing my country bolchevised ».
Marc
Made into a socialist police state while retaining a sham façade of republican government.
Socialist state, like government taking over big corporations (banks, energy, big tech etc.) ? Rather looks like the opposite to me, whoever being in charge.
Colonel,
Please do not let SST die if it can be helped. All the wrong people will be cheering. The honorable tribe of knuckle-draggers will have yet one more loss.
Ishmael Zechariah
FWIW, four of my closest, dearest female friends are suburbanites or exurbanites and each supported Trump. None of us really like his occasional intemperance and loquacity, but that’s a matter of style to us, not substance.
I don’t trust exit polling any more than I trust pre-election polling because it’s been my observation that conservatives are generally much more guarded about divulging anything of a personal nature to strangers. Narcissistic social media’s leftist tilt is evidence of this. If more women support Democrats than Republicans, IMO it points to a big government safety net preference, a tendency towards dependency, rather than the idea that someone like Trump ruffles their delicate sensibilities – although there are no doubt males and females of that sort.
Here is your deep state vote by government data – here are your Biden block voters, times two for each spouse or family member:
“In October of 2020, there were 21,529,000 people working for government in the United States. That included 13,692,000 working for local governments; 4,844,000 working for state governments; and 2,993,000 working for the federal government.
Big Government = Democrat voter domination forever. They will even elect a corpse in the basement. And Nancy Pelosi raises campaign funds off each and every one of them. Why should this ever change? What would motivate government employees to ever vote against their own self-interests?
exiled off mainstreet
‘Another indication is the down ballot victories. Many of those manufacturing thousands of forged ballots will not have taken the time to cast votes for the lesser offices, thus the House was somewhat protected from the fraud.’
really hoping this gets followed up on by those with the resources to (because it’s an angle that i guarantee will get no mention whatsoever in the msm). to my mind, as a phenomenon that seems to’ve occurred disproportionately in contested states only, this’s the single clearest indicator that there was some serious mischief afoot…
The challenge has always been – how to translate conservatism into a winning campaign, regardless of a personality.
Why is it in others best interest to support and start supporting conservative principles. Trump gave us a taste. A nudge in the right direction. It cannot be tied only to one man, or one election. The GOP has a very strong farm club – who will emerge to carry this cause in 2024?
Time to rally around Ted Cruz, his time has come. Trump lit the match. Cruz can sustain the flame. And the courts will not be running “progressive activism” interference as much as in the past. There is a future. There is no other choice.
Here we stand; we can do no other.
Fellow Paleocon Pat Buchanan recently encouraged readers in his new piece that, Trumpism will survive even without the man himself at the WH, so the movement of national (transnational?) resistance to the spread of permanent international socialist revolution of today’s Democratic party will go on with or without him, probably by the likes of Josh Hawley, Matt Gaetz, Tucker Carlson, and last by not least by the venerable Turcopolier here on SST, should he decides to stick around at least until 2024. I know, it is probably wishful thinking. But I would like to remain positive.
I for one, will never bow down to bolshevism, neo or else. I will never submit to the narrow ideological conformity of these monsters. I will never abandon my principles that are centered around ‘ordered liberty’ and I will encourage everyone to fight for what’s right and toward the common good of fellow men and women.
Deap,
that was a short vacation. It hasn’t even been 48 hours and it’s already “There is no other choice.” Give up on Trump and support lyin’ Ted. That’s some real California Dreaming going on there sir. Pray tell how you determined how all those government employees in states with Republican led legislatures – the one’s who will write the re-districting maps next year – all uniformly voted for Biden.
I sincerely hope you continue this blog. As a long time lurker (one that has found countless and invaluable book recommendations in addition to insights into global affairs) it would be a huge blow to the landscape out there for informed news and debate. I generally disagree with the domestic opinions expressed here, but I still enjoy reading them. Mostly I find the opinions are rational and articulate, even if they’re just plain WRONG in principle (joking of course). Please keep SST online.
A great pity. I was uneasy about the down ballot stuff but there are rational explanations for it so that’s that.
The buyer’s remorse is going to be quite something. And I suppose we’ll be seeing more “moderate rebels” around.
Colonel – it must be a great amount of work running this superb site. But I don’t think this is going to be the end of the political awakening of America, with all that means for the West generally, and if it’s not too much of a burden I hope you’ll be able to continue giving us the commentary on it.
Now I must go and see what’s being made of the Halibut. And, though I know they can scarcely be barbecued, maybe slip in another request for the authentic recipe for Boston Baked Beans.
@pl
That is now the essence of everything going forward.
Please continue SST! Yours is a rare voice of sanity in a increasingly insane world. Col, lots of folks depend on you for your insight and wisdom.
Quote “ If the Dems win both run-offs in Georgia, we would have a tied senate 50-50.”
Wouldn’t that leave the VP having the casting vote from the Speakers Chair ?
If so will that give the Democrats the Presidency, Senate and the House.?
I have a connection to a few “Evangelican women”and they were really, really mad at Trump’s conduct during the first debate. It blinded them. And since early voting started soon after, this may have created a critical loss early in the game.
Perhaps after his rehabilitation in the second debate, there was trending the request for ballot changes after already cast. With victory margins so slim, these were votes that could not be cast away. Perhaps these were “Evangelical women” who needed to make amends for their initial and snitty revulsion.
Slicing and dicing the demographics will still have to wait too – until the official vote counts and all of this – gains and losses can be drilled down.
Biggest regret – loss of Kellyanne Conway at a critical point in Trump’s campaign. Should a scape goat exist, I will nominate George Conway for poisoning the well. Dump Biden on George’s very ample lap. And leave room for Queen Kamala too. I am wise enough to know the buck stops with Trump himself; but “blame” is so au courant these days.
Please keep up the fine work,you accomplish much good! Keep the faith! Respectfully,Mark
I really like SST.
Haven’t posted a lot lately, but enjoy reading. One of the few places that is knowledgeable imo and doesn’t do PC.
Buyer’s remorse already starting – electing a cipher whose party is now speaking for him. This is proving to be deeply chilling, as his Democrat cadres dominate the headlines with the “real” Biden agenda.
Grand irony, Trump will emerge as the sympathetic character and reminder of the good times, as the Democrats emerge screeching like harridans from Biden’s basement.
Democrats unleashed have even less restraint than the Bad Orange Man..
Deap,
You allegedly live in California. How can ‘some evangelical women’ you are connected to sway the vote everywhere because they were ‘really mad’ at Trump after the first debate.
Sir, regarding Trump and women, for women who were in the vanguard of entering male-dominated professions like law, big business and medicine, Hillary’s loss to an alpha male with a trophy wife was a psychic wound. It was a complete repudiation of their decades long trek to parity with men. Trump’s defeat was the only way to relieve their suffering and they would have crawled through glass to vote against him. FWIW, I think Nancy Pelosi is so afflicted. As for Hillary, she will be among the slate of electors NY sends to the electoral college this December.
CMB