On to …?

  Endor4

"On a tactical level, the liberation of Palmyra and the expected advance on Sukhanah  greatly reduced ISIS’ ability to threaten key government supply lines, especially along the M5 highway and the road to Aleppo.

The pro-government forces have also launched an operation to seize the town of Quraytayn which is located south from the Tiyas Crossroads. The Syrian forces have already taken Hazm al-Gharbiyat and been advancing on the western gates. Quraytayn is also an important logistical potion, liberation of which will increase the SAA’s freedom of operation in the province.

In a separate development, the SAA and Hezbollah units have liberated the Air Defence Base at the village of Bala al-Kadim and the nearby Zahir Farm pushing Al-Nusra militants from this area in East Ghouta.

How, the Syrian forces control with fire Haush Jarabo which is the only way for the pocket. This makes very difficult for Jaish al-Islam, Jabhat al-Nusra and the Free Syrian Army to retreat from the pocket. If Haush Jarabo is seized by the pro-government forces, the strategic situation will become hopeless for the militants encircled there."  southfront

—————

Watch the South Front briefing.

Interestingly, the Syrian Marine Regiment which had been deployed from north Lattakia to reinforce the attack on Palmyra/Tadmur has returned to north Lattakia and are just to the west of Jisr ash-Shugur.  That would indicate that the R+6 command is confident that forces on the Palmyra-Deir az-Zor axis are sufficient and that these mobile forces well supplied with air support will be enough in what will be essentially a pursuit.  Some stiff resistance should be expected at places like Sukhna but IMO IS morale is not good and they are likely to keep running if pushed hard.   I would expect a linkup with the isolated Deir az-Zor force and then a change of the axes of advance to a northern direction and Raqqa.  The now functioning airfield at Palmyra will be a big logistical help in keeping all this moving.  The return of the Syrian Marines to the north probably presages a renewal of the advance to capture Jisr ash-Shugur.

The pocket in east Ghouta is nearly closed and this will form a death trap for a lot of rebels.

All of this is rapidly weakening IS and the other rebel forces and a general collapse is coming, even in Iraq.  pl 

https://southfront.org/international-military-review-syria-iraq-mar-28-2016/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35912302

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55 Responses to On to …?

  1. cynic says:

    The Russian Colonel-General estimated that there had been 60,000 terrorists and that the Russians had killed at least 2,000. Presumably there have also been other casualties, and some of the terrorists might have taken vacations in Turkey. Doesn’t it still seem a rather low proportion to have had such a large effect in reducing their effectiveness? Is it perhaps that their failure to hold anywhere that has been seriously attacked, and the failure of their disjointed counter-attacks has led most of the survivors to be contemplating a change of career?
    Has the Borg really given up in Syria and started to switch it’s attention and its forces to Libya?
    By the way, is that picture a detail from something by Bosch? Some sort of reference to the Biblical Witch of Endor?

  2. turcopolier says:

    cynic
    Armies lose heart when defeated repeatedly. IMO there are many who wish to leave, get a transfer to Libya, or whatever. OTOH what I call the R+6 now has the habit of victory. Bonaparte said that in was the “moral) factors are as two to one against the material. This of course does not apply to possible exchanges of nuclear weapons. There is a chapter in Vom Kriege on this phenomenon. pl

  3. turcopolier says:

    cynic
    Ah, the Borg! No, IMO they are incapable of learning from experience because they live in a bubble in which they deny evidence that should be derived from reality and they tell each other that only their shared reality is possible. pl

  4. Trey N says:

    Early in the interview,Colonel General Aleksandr Dvornikov states:
    “The terrorists, who numbered more than 60,000, occupied around 70% of the territory of Syria.”
    Several paragraphs later, he states”
    “Around two thousand terrorists, originally coming from the Russian Federation, were destroyed on Syrian territory.”
    The 2,000 killed only refers to the Chechens and other Russian citizens fighting in the Daesh forces. The total number of terrorists killed in the last six months of Russian intervention is far higher than that.

  5. Tunde says:

    PL
    I read of a contest between IS and JaN at Qalamoun which seemed an odd AO for them to be disputing considering the events easterly of that area. Any thoughts on why they would be dicing so close to ground zero for Hizbuallah forces (ie so close to the Lebanese border) ?
    http://news.antiwar.com/2016/03/28/isis-fight-against-al-qaeda-spills-over-from-syria-into-lebanon/
    For those with a visual inclination ANNA News on YouTube has an extensive archive and fairly recent sitrep of field ops in Syria. What struck me from looking at their archives from 2014-2015-2016 is the changing nature of the environment to which the SAA and allies have fought. From principally an urban battlescape arm wrestle with the opfor, the SAA units are now wiping the floor with them in open country, impressively coordinating with the RuAF. SAA morale and personal equipment seems good. I don’t understand Arabic so cannot tell Iranians from Lebanese from Syrians but the SAA forces are now one battle-hardened entity.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIQUOFvor7U
    OT,
    PL, unicorns exist ! Or they did…….they were Siberian no less. Then became extinct. Your analogy was, dare I say, very apt.
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/mar/29/siberian-unicorn-extinct-humans-fossil-kazakhstan

  6. Trey N says:

    Napoleon actually claimed that morale is even more important than that: “The moral is to the physical as three is to one.”
    Daesh does indeed appear to be crumbling, as the wargame you ran last year predicted. What would be today’s equivalent of unleashing Murat’s cavalry in the pursuit phase of a battle won, to complete the destruction of an enemy defeated on the field of battle??

  7. Trey N says:

    Yep, the highly destructive “echo chamber” effect, where all the parakeets chirp in unison from the same songsheet.
    It’s going to be interesting to see how the Borg members react when it becomes plain to everyone in the galaxy, even the deluded wretches themselves, that their bubble world has finally popped. I imagine that having to adjust to reality from that fantasy universe is going to be rather traumatic (and hasten the day, O Lord…).

  8. Ishmael Zechariah says:

    Many in the Turkish military are following the campaign in Syria carefully.When Daesh collapses there may be very serious problems in Turkey if the liver eaters decide that they have been betrayed. I am sure some of them think so. tayyip is trying to switch horses in mid-stream and the European Borg is helping him.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/29/turkey-german-video-mocking-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan
    Ishmael Zechariah

  9. Bill Herschel says:

    Saul and the Witch of Endor by Jacob Cornelisz van Oostsanen, a detail. Saul throws himself on his sword having learned from the witch that he will lose in battle. As in the past, I believe this is a suggestion for the jihadists on the part of the kindly Colonel.
    I believe that the figure 2,000 used by the Russian General referred to the number of Chechen jihadist veterans that his (Russian) forces had identified in Syria, sought out and killed, thus making it less likely that they would return to Russian and cause trouble there. I believe the number of jihadists who have achieved Nirvana in Syria since September is much, much higher. He freely admitted that there were Russian special forces on the ground in Syria.

  10. crf says:

    The 2000 killed probably contained a high proportion of the most eager militants.

  11. Bill Herschel says:

    Upon reflection, it is possible that Colonel Lang is also implying that the jihadists (Saul) have made a big mistake by paying attention to the witches (Hillary Clinton) in the first place.
    Perhaps. But who knew? How could the average jihadist, flush with money from Turkey and Saudi Arabia, having beheaded a couple of Christians on TV, have any idea that the Russian military could do in five months what the Americans have not been able to do for several decades, assuming that part of the money had not come directly from the Americans in the first place?
    Crimea without a shot being fired (practically). Syria, and by strong implication the entire Middle East, with less than 10 casualties,in 5 months. The lights must be burning late in Langley.
    Putin wants peace, and he will get it. It’s about time.

  12. Chris Chuba says:

    I have read some speculate that a drive from Palmyra to Deir Ezzor could be hindered because that is Sunni area where ISIS and ISIS sympathizers could blend into the population and harass the SAA as they advance. However, I have noticed that the intervening cities or towns are rather small and sparsely populated, so I think these fears are overblown.
    Did ISIS really evacuate the entire population of Palmyra/Tadmur before it was captured by the SAA? I read that in some of the news releases. I don’t know what to make of that.
    I’d really like to see Qaryatayn liberated soon, especially if there are any Christians left. Perhaps a deep drive to Deir Ezzor will isolate the ISIS held western area around Qaryatayn enough to make it easier to take. In any case, I’m certain that decisions are being made based on experience and availability of appropriate resources.
    That cease fire was Manna from heaven. It shows what can happen once the SAA was able to focus just a little more on ISIS instead of pushing the Nusra/FSA knife away from their throat.

  13. b says:

    According to this the “moderate rebels” are getting lots of new arms by the CIA and other services. They expect a breakdown of the ceasefire and a new round of fighting.
    https://tcf.org/content/commentary/around-aleppo-its-not-peace-just-a-break/
    The Russian defene ministry said that three large trucks with weapons/ammo and some 50 Nusra fighters crossed from Turkey into the Azaz area.

    The infighting between various groups in probably under-reported. The YPG in the west is again fighting “moderates” in Azaz. In Idleb several fights broke out between JAN and other “moderates”. In the south next to the Israeli border an Islamic State group is fighting various “moderates” (btw – who is supplying the isolated IS cell there?). All this infighting costs lots of energy, personnel and resources. The Russian and SAA generals must have a good laugh at these.

  14. Peter Reichard says:

    On to Deir Az Zor, Raqqa can wait for three reasons.One:Relief of the long suffering garrison would be a tremendous morale booster for the SAA, a shock to ISIS and could create a psychological tipping point. (If my memory from long ago serves me well the old Corsican said “morale is to materiel as three is to one.”) Two:Wars are won by destroying armies not by taking territory, but diplomatic negotiations ARE won that way as possession is ninety percent of the law.Events are moving quickly and Syria needs to control as much land in the east as possible to kill any proposals for partition.Three:It would prevent a retreat to the east, trap many ISIS troops in Syria and help close the noose around a giant pocket to set up the final battle of annihilation at Raqqa.

  15. aleksandar says:

    « No money, no Swiss guards » as it was said to one French King long time ago.
    In Afghanistan, we took prisoner a Taliban leader who was the «cash officer» for the province.
    He had in his pocket a pad with the Taliban “price list” :
    Monthly salary 70 $
    Observe ISAF’s soldiers + 20 $
    Fire at them + 30 $
    Set up an IED + 40 $
    Wound an ISAF’s soldier + 60 $
    and so on, and so on.
    (figures are just to explain, I do not remember exactly except number 1).
    Talibans in great majority are part-time soldiers, the poorest of poor people.
    That give us the reason that so much phone calls were intercepted after ambushes or IED explosions.
    They weren’t military reports, they were financial reports !
    There is certainly within ISIS die heart jihadists but IMO also typical mercenaries Taliban style, especially ex iraqi soldiers.
    But I can be wrong.

  16. BabelFish says:

    To my amateur eyes and ears, it sounds like the R+6 are sound practitioners of General Thomas J. Jackson’s dictum of ‘get them running and stay right on top of them.

  17. cynic says:

    I notice that he also mentioned that the Russians had for months been practicing moving their forces long distances by air, so that everyone was proficient when it was necessary.
    Perhaps the original intention was to be able to intervene in Ukraine, but that didn’t prove necessary.
    I had thought that a Colonel-General would be a Brigadier, but it seems he is a three star general or corps commander. I wondered why such a senior officer was send to command only a few hundred Russian troops, but perhaps there is competition for an active command, and they wanted to send someone whom they knew to be good. Then I recalled that it had been reported that ‘senior’ Russian officers were working to persuade the various terrorist groups to stop fighting, and so I wondered whether there is an element of ‘face’ involved. It may also be easier for the Syrian forces and government to accept unpalatable advice from a more senior source.

  18. turcopolier says:

    b
    Azaz and the corridor west of Lake Assad would seem to be the only avenues left open for sending in weapons and ammunition from Turkey unless they start doing air deliveries. pl

  19. turcopolier says:

    cynic
    The senior Russian on the ground has a major military diplomatic function vis a vis the Syrians, Hizbullah and Iranians. He has to be a very senior man. he probably has a subordinate who commands the Russian forces directly. pl

  20. cynic says:

    The Sultan isn’t all that keen on ‘freedom of the press’, or any of that ‘democracy’ stuff actually. If his own creation turned on him, few would mourn his demise. He’s probably passing them on to Europe as fast as he can.

  21. turcopolier says:

    All
    The SAA is not an Alawite army. It is a national army. It has many, many Sunnis in it as well as Christians and Shia. Their arrival in Deir az-zor will be greeted with a profound gratitude.

  22. cynic says:

    The smarter ones may be recruiting the next tranche of disposable idiots amongst the Muslims that have already poured into Europe or been brought up there. Not necessarily for use in Syria, or even Libya, but to take the jihad in Europe from immigration to fighting.

  23. turcopolier says:

    All
    As I recall, the jihadis tried to get into Lebanon through the Qalamoun area. This was in more prosperous days for them when they had greater freedom of movement. pl

  24. cynic says:

    That probably also applies beyond the actual army to the background of believers and propagandists and fundraisers that support them. If their morale and effectiveness could be diminished the problem might diminish from a military to a police level.

  25. SmoothieX12 says:

    You may want to read War And Peace.

  26. cynic says:

    I suppose they can maintain these delusions as long as their supporters control all the institutions of society and the money flow; at least until reality whacks their followers so hard, there’s not many people left who pay attention to them.

  27. Bill Herschel says:

    You know, it occurs to me that the entirety of world history since WW II has actually been a continuation of that war. Future historians I think will take that position. There are many, many examples that bear this out (NATO), but the one that came to my mind was the various wars between India and Pakistan. India was a Soviet client and Pakistan an American. India beat them every time. Now, India was also, before it was a Soviet client, a British client, so the case can be made that it was actually the British influence that enabled India to prevail, but today it is striking that Russia has accomplished such an incredible amount in such a short period of time in Syria. America’s track record is nowhere near as good. Kosovo, now a criminal enterprise masquerading as a country, stands out. And America’s turning a blind eye to ISIS shipping oil to Turkey is more of the same.
    America currently has an empire with troops in place all over the globe and complete control of the world’s finances. Nevertheless, domestic politics are a complete mess and life expectancy among adult white males is going down fast. And there is no end in sight. The coming election will be a turning point, in one direction or another.

  28. Fred says:

    Chris,
    “Did ISIS really evacuate the entire population of Palmyra/Tadmur before it was captured by the SAA? ”
    Wouldn’t that be more accurately described as round up the population as hostages?

  29. cynic says:

    Thank you. How may one identify such pictures, other than through an encyclopedic knowledge of art?
    Perhaps it’s also a hint not to believe too firmly in prophecies such as their Dabiq/Armageddon story. After all, there seem already to have been a couple of major battles near there, resulting in the overthrow of major powers. In 1516 the Ottomans beat the Mamelukes, and I seem to recall reading that a couple of centuries earlier the Mamelukes had beaten the Mongols. The Goddess of Victory is fickle, and as someone said, the God of Battle has an eternal preference for the better troops.
    The Russians have been doing exactly what they said they were doing, so it may be that their special forces have had a particularly large part in killing the terrorists and promoting the Syrian victories. Since the Western powers have been helping and even creating the terrorists they claimed to have been fighting, one must wonder what exactly have their special forces been doing? Might they actually have been fighting for them?
    We may recall that back when British forces were occupying Basra, the Iraqis arrested several SAS soldiers caught dressed as Arabs, in a car laden with explosives, parked near a market. The British army had to break them out of the jail where they were held. It was never explained what they were doing. Were they the terrorists, or were they posing as terrorists in the classic Gangs and Counter Gangs manner? In Northern Ireland it became very unclear who was infiltrating whom, and it was suspected that some of the IRA atrocities were carried out by British agents trying to maintain their credit within the IRA, and that many of its leaders were on the British payroll.
    Since these Islamic terrorists are highly fissiparous and quarrelsome, and many of them are foreigners speaking various languages, it should be possible to infiltrate them and set them against each other.They’re more a collection of gangs than a unified army. Maybe the Russians Chechens have been doing some of that. We don’t know what their Western equivalents have been doing. Secrecy can cover a lot of sins.

  30. turcopolier says:

    Babak
    What Salman needs is the WW2 Wehrmacht as the instrument of his “doctrine.” His present resources do not seem up to the job. pl

  31. Bill Herschel says:

    What an astonishing article! Every single thing in it is 180 degrees off the truth. The canard that infuriates me the most is that Obama didn’t punish Assad for crossing the “red line” (he didn’t, the Saudi’s did) out of fear or some such. He didn’t act because the British House of Commons voted against British involvement in a stunning defeat for the Conservative government. Obama would have had to submit U.S. action to Congress at the that point, and Congress would have voted against it, at that time.
    But the real zinger is the author.
    Nawaf Obaid is a visiting fellow with Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
    Enough said.

  32. Babak Makkinejad says:

    I wonder, does one have to be stupid to get a position at the Belfer Centre? Or being a Saudi is sufficient?

  33. Babak Makkinejad says:

    But then no one could mistake Arabs for Germans – just as the Bedu were never comparable to the Goth.

  34. Babak Makkinejad says:

    Kutozov – but then he advocated not harassment but letting the Grande Arme to retreat and melt.

  35. Trey N says:

    Another consideration might be the need of someone with Dvornikov’s stature and experience to coordinate the different Russian military branches (ground/air/naval) operating in Syria.
    The organization of the Red Air Force in WW II was rather complex (see Appendix 6 of von Hardesty’s RED PHOENIX for the 1943 VVS), but unlike Western practice tactical air assets were under the control of ground commanders: the commander of a Front [Army Group] directed the operations of the Air Army assigned to his Front. If that practice still holds true today, then on the (much) smaller scale of operations in Syria now Dvornikov might be directly commanding the operations of all air and ground units operating in the country. Hence the need for someone of his rank, even though the overall numbers of his command is relatively small.

  36. Well, well well … It seems not everybody in the West is a happy camper about the SAA taking back Palmyra. Read articles published by “the usual suspects”, or listen into the fine print of government statements, and you’ll realize some people are definitely trying to unspin the huge morale and PR-boost this victory has given the R+6. Because it is a undoubtedly a military victory and those insinuating Assad may have willingly let the IS take control of Palmyra in 2015, see his soldiers have their heads chopped off and the director of the archeology museum killed publicly, should get their heads examined.
    There is something profoundly obscene about commentators and pundits still suggesting some kind of shadow game going on between Assad and the IS, with the RuAF as ‘ISIS air force” to quote the now infamous Michael Weiss.
    Looking at the big picture, what Palmyra shows us is that the R+6 picked both their timing and target carefully. The victory at Palmyra was both the most easily achievable militarily and the most effective to publicize while the cease-fire and negotiations are going on. Overall, it was the best of all available options to pick.
    What is going to happen now will depend on a number of factors. Again there are various options open, but I would not be surprized if the IS corridor on the border to Turkey was to be targeted by a combined offensive both from R+6 troops and Kurdish YPG. Such a move would follow the rationale of disrupting the territorial continuity of the IS and cutting of its LOCs and logistical routes.
    Too early to tell yet probably, but let’s see if Manbij and al-Bab make the headlines soon again …

  37. Ishmael Zechariah says:

    Despite all protestations, the Borg is still supporting tayyip & co. here is another fun link about tayyip and his band of goons:
    http://sputniknews.com/us/20160330/1037203304/erdogan-guards-protest-yell.html
    I have also heard that the Borg may green-light a ‘security corridor” on the Turkish border, to be secured by the unicorns and their Kurdish allies. The Russians will probably not like this. Assad will definitely not like it.
    Ishmael Zechariah

  38. turcopolier says:

    IZ
    The FSA unicorns have Kurdish allies? Who are they? pl

  39. turcopolier says:

    Babak
    Actually, this was an old joke about Nasser. His foreign policy clearly needed the Wehrmacht and all he had was the Egyptian Army. pl

  40. turcopolier says:

    PB
    The “Cochise” in the planning business in Syria clearly was right in his prioritization of the Palmyra axis. pl

  41. Think they made the right decision indeed. The downside for us in the West, particularly in Europe, is that the mode the Is is going to fade away in Syria, less so in Iraq for now, the more we have to be prepared for retaliatory attacks the kind of which we’ve seen in Brussels (or earlier on in Paris).
    That is also a reason why anybody in his right mind should probably wish for the R+6 to rid us all of as many of these “foreign fighters” as possible. Of course, this would imply a lockdown of the Turkish border to prevent reinforcements in manpower and weapons from reaching the throat-cutters, but that is a different story I’m afraid.

  42. rjj says:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Paris_(1814)#/media/File:Russparis.jpg
    I was never interested in the period. Is anybody else surprised by this? Was this event consigned to the muffled zone of history?

  43. turcopolier says:

    PB
    Genius does not usually reside in committees unless they are part of a long standing corporate body trained to think in a certain way. pl

  44. Barish says:

    Apparently Palmyra emptied out way, way earlier, going by this Euronews-video from May 2015:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXK7ARKHfxI
    From the description beneath the video itself:
    “More than a third of its inhabitants have fled, leaving large parts of the city a virtual ghost town.”
    Later in July, WSJ claims this:
    “Palmyra Empties as Bombs Rain Down
    Syria regime’s air campaign to dislodge Islamic State triggers exodus, further endangers antiquities
    Palmyra is fast becoming a crumbling ghost town, as Syrian government airstrikes aimed at loosening the grip of Islamic State over the historic city uproot its residents and further endanger its famed antiquities.
    Nearly two months after Islamic State took control of the once thriving outpost of the Roman Empire, Palmyra’s streets are mostly empty, and entire neighborhoods sit deserted. Out of a total population of 80,000 just weeks ago, only a few thousand inhabitants remain.
    The pounding from the air hasn’t relented, residents and opposition activists said this week, describing the deterioration of Palmyra. Since Monday, 20 civilians have been killed and dozens wounded in government airstrikes against the city and nearby towns. The bombs often hit civilian homes, not Islamic State targets, they said.
    After Islamic State forces seized Palmyra on May 21, global attention focused on the fate of the city’s 2,000-year-old antiquities. The extremist group had used sledgehammers and explosives to destroy antiquities elsewhere in Syria and in Iraq.
    […]
    Many artifacts were moved to safety by government security forces before Islamic State seized control of the city, locals said. What can’t be moved has come under bombardment from regime aircraft, according to photos posted by activists online that appear to show remnants of munitions among the ruins.
    […]”
    Pretty much the usual sob-story, sourced from “activists” and “residents”. Meanwhile, while I am loathe to put much trust in the next piece by some “opposition”-outlet from earlier this March, it shares a couple interesting details about how benevolent ISIL rule apparently was in the place:
    http://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2016/03/historic-city-palmyra-ghost-town-amidst-daily-attacks-media-absence/
    “Historic city of Palmyra a ghost-town amidst daily attacks and media absence
    Five thousand residents remain in Palmyra, the biggest city in the Homs countryside; most of its population left after the Islamic State took control of it ten months ago, since which time it has become a regular target for airstrikes.
    97% of the Population Fled
    In the words of Naser al-Thaer, a member of the Revolutionary Coordination Council in Palmyra who spoke to Enab Baladi, opposition media is “oblivious” to what is going on in Palmyra in terms of daily killing, and the fact that over time nearly 97% of its population has left since the arrival of IS.
    Before IS’s takeover, the population of the town was nearly 170,000, fifty-thousands of whom had been displaced from other cities, said al-Thaer. Most fled to Raqqa city, Deir e-Zor countryside, while others went to Turkey or areas under regime control.
    […]
    He said that minor damage to the archaeological area of old Palmyra in the city’s south has occurred during the almost daily cluster-bombings.
    Palmyra Monitor
    The Council has launched a website “Palmyra Monitor” that seeks to shed light on the city of Palmyra which has been “forgotten” by local, Arab, and international media. They want to raise awareness about the city and overcome the sporadic media coverage by publishing news about what is going on the city at all levels, according to al-Thaer.
    He highlighted that the situation in the city is worse than it has been in years.
    “There are no working schools or hospitals, there is only one field hospital…Palmyra has no electricity or communications, we get our water from handmade wells, and IS has banned the use of the internet.””
    Truly makes you want to be a believer in this ISIL-bunch, don’t it. Aside from being a front-line site, it wouldn’t exactly be surprising if, in fact, most people fled Tadmor first and foremost due to ISIL’s reign. Granted, this “Palmyra Monitor” that is mentioned sounds about as fishy and (un)trustworthy as the Coventry-show, so the descriptions made there do not mandate to be taken at face-value.
    Besides the note-worthy discrepancy as to the estimated populace of the town between the WSJ and this outlet – with the WSJ in my opinion being closer to the mark on that count – the Enab Baladi-author also adds this hare-brained paragraph to its piece:
    “Criticism of the Media
    Naser leveled criticism at opposition media saying that “they document violations of the truce in all the areas covered by it, but have forgotten about the areas controlled by IS, as if the civilians there chose to live under IS’s rule. They have allowed the regime to and the Russians to single out places like Palmyra by land and air.””
    What’s not part of a truce isn’t part of a truce. Not exactly a hard concept to grasp…

  45. BabelFish says:

    Smoothie, I did, quite some time back. You should now read Shelby Foote’s history on the American Civil War (aka War Between the States) to provide counter-balance. Apologies if you have.

  46. LeaNder says:

    “By the way, is that picture a detail from something by Bosch? Some sort of reference to the Biblical Witch of Endor?”
    Less important, maybe, then the fact that Pat probably choose it since he somewhat at least likes owls.
    That said, considering your larger comment-profile from my no doubt limited and somewhat subjective perspective, makes me wonder you seems to have knowledge in the arts. That’s surely something, I wouldn’t have expected. 😉
    No harm meant. Seriously.
    But yes, that was my first impression too, just as it may be a déjà vu, and yes, I did look it up at that point in time, to check if it was around on the web otherwise, and if my impression was wrong and/or what picture it belonged into as detail.

  47. SmoothieX12 says:

    True in Tolstoy’s opinion, he stipulated that Kutuzov wanted to reign in his eager generals, understanding that there was no need, beyond obvious, to fight Grand Armee’ which would disintegrate one way or another. The truth, however, including Tarutino maneuver was in restoration of the Russian Army after the slaughter of Borodino and then in pursuing Napoleon. Which was done.

  48. SmoothieX12 says:

    “You know, it occurs to me that the entirety of world history since WW II has actually been a continuation of that war. Future historians I think will take that position.”
    Paradoxically, both right and wrong. Right–in a sense that we live today in the world shaped on the battlefields of WW II, which is a singular event in human history and, hopefully, will remain such for a very long time. Wrong–in a sense that nothing comes even close in scale of destruction and human suffering to WW II. In the end, death camps, mass executions and genocide of the industrial scale were pretty much over by the end of WW II. They still remain as of today, to be sure, such as Rwanda but there the atrocity had very little to do with WW II. Sadly, the history of humanity IS the history of the warfare–be it combined arms or terrorism. We are a violent species.

  49. Fred says:

    PB,
    “…the more we have to be prepared for retaliatory attacks the kind of which we’ve seen in Brussels (or earlier on in Paris)…”
    Let’s not forget the US as well, especially as the US presidential election race tightens up and our own MSM and political establishment continues to put their collective heads in the sand.

  50. Barish says:

    “Later in July, WSJ claims this:”
    Forgot to add the WSJ-link
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/palmyra-empties-as-bombs-rain-down-1436520733

  51. PL,
    Couldn’t agree more !
    Actually, as a rule of thumb, some decisions’ wisdom is inversely proportional to the number of people involved in it, unless – as you say – a long standing and well trained body is concerned is in charge.
    Meaning, let’s toss the poli/social science ppl of the roof when the grown ups are talking. Just kidding …

  52. Babak Makkinejad says:

    There is a saying in US:
    “A Committee is a strange beast; 10 pairs of hands and feet and yet no brains.”

  53. cynic says:

    Here’s a strange story that Palmyra may be ‘genuinely reconstructed’ by 3D printers! I’m not sure whether that will be in plastic.
    http://russia-insider.com/en/after-palmyra-message-isis-what-you-destroy-we-will-rebuild/ri13685

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