Post Convention Thread – 2016

Hits: 0

600px-Seal_Of_The_President_Of_The_United_States_Of_America_svg

"CLINTON'S CLAIM: "If you believe that we should say 'no' to unfair trade deals … then join us."

THE FACTS: Clinton now says that she opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement, but she championed it when serving as President Obama's secretary of state, even calling the agreement the "gold standard" in trade deals. "This TPP sets the gold standard in trade agreements to open free, transparent, fair trade, the kind of environment that has the rule of law and a level playing field. And when negotiated, this agreement will cover 40 percent of the world's total trade and build in strong protections for workers and the environment," she said in Nov. 2012."  NBC News 

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-conventions/fact-checking-hillary-clinton-s-speech-n619481

*****

"Donald Trump captured his second lead this year in the polls in the days following the Republican National Convention, where he officially nabbed the GOP’s presidential nomination. Trump edged out Democrat Hillary Clinton on July 24 and has grown his lead to about 1 percent as of July 26, according to polling averages from RealClearPolitics.

While 1 percent might not sound like much, it’s worth noting that Trump’s previous headline-grabbing lead in May held steady for three days at 0.2 percent. As the InsideGov visualization shows, Trump’s current trajectory seems to continue on its upswing rather than staying level.' 

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/07/28/trump-nabs-largest-lead-so-far-over-clinton/

———-

Well, the Dems definitely won the grand production prize for the conventions.  What is your opinion over-all of where we are?  Foreigners feel free to join in.  Your interests are at stake as well.  pl

This entry was posted in Politics. Bookmark the permalink.

130 Responses to Post Convention Thread – 2016

  1. Tyler says:

    The Left will continue to freak out as Trump triggers their id and HRC continues to dump in the polls.
    Uninspiring, hectoring speech in which she lied and lied, unable to draw blp0d on Trump with the same failed attacks.Trump might be the first candidate to get a bounce from two conventions.

  2. Lars says:

    One of the historically best predictors of presidential elections:
    https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_PRES16_WTA.cfm

  3. jld says:

    Well… From a non-American perspective Trump is very likely much less disastrous than Clinton.
    (and maybe from an American perspective too)

  4. raven says:

    And get crushed in the general.

  5. Eric Newhill says:

    Hillary proved that she is a slithering chameleon that believes in nothing and will say/promise anything to win. This was made all too obvious by very recent adoption of Democrat safe planks from Trump’s platform that are 180 degrees from where she stood only a few months ago. I would have been only mildly surprised if she had started talking about building a wall. Shameless.
    That and the white/western civ hating hyper-entitled BLM mothers and the gender confused [self admitted] child molesting whack jobs invited to speak confirmed for many Americans that Hillary and Dems, generally, are the party of societal corrosion. Strengthened the base, of course, but disenfranchised the critical fence sitters.
    Fence sitters are now looking at Trump more seriously. If he can keep himself from digressing into idiocy, he should get a good bounce and go on to win. Big “if” though. It’s now Trump’s election to lose.

  6. Ex-PFC Chuck says:

    This piece in Der Soiegel may seem unrelated; that is until you get to the last paragraph.
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/breedlove-network-sought-weapons-deliveries-for-ukraine-a-1104837.html

  7. Trey N says:

    I got into a conversation with a “progressive” young man I met here in Austin yesterday. Politics came up, of course, and I was pleasantly surprised when he said he’s leaning Libertarian right now, but that whoever he finally votes for, it will be “anyone but Hillary.”
    When I asked why, he replied with a lot of the expected facts from her sordid past covering a whole range of issues personal, foreign and domestic; financial and political; etc etc ad nauseum.
    The bottom line was her “overall [lack of] character.”
    One can only hope that such feelings are widespread among the general voting public. The DNC debacle shows that it well may be:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-28/did-dnc-hire-actors-below-minimum-wage-work-convention
    Poor 1% zillionaire oligarchs. All those hundreds of millions of $$$ poured into their fellow psychopath’s campaign, and all it’s gotten them is a worthless loser hag who can’t even manage to generate the traditional post-convention bounce in the polls….

  8. Balint Somkuti says:

    As a hungarian I think if the Borg Queen wins we probably better prepare for the worst, say a Maidan v2.0, since my country (some 60+% of the population-yes even those who do not like the current govt) is opposed to TTP, LMBTQ, migrants and other neoliberal/open society flagships.
    Although the Norwegian Trust (run suprisingly almost exclusively by Soros’ vassals), Andre Goodfriend deputy ambassador for the US, and remnants of the once dominant social-liberal parties failed to incite any mass movement against our PM Viktor Orban in 2014.
    And if we talk about nomen est omen check out this ‘Good friend’ fella. His background, his education etc. He openly supported the ex-communist state party, Hungarian Socialist Party, without any effort to even look unbiased, with such perfectly named individuals such as Mr. Gőgös (arrogant), Mr. Hiszékeny (decievable).
    So to sum it up. Hillary completely NO. Much rather Trump but if he pulls another 1919 (complete discarding of the Wilsonian principles) or 1945 (Yalta conference) you will see an uptick in anti-US sentiments.
    Really wonder what the poles would say, I am pretty much slovaks, and czechs have the same (or very similar) opinion.

  9. Trey N says:

    Would this be the same type of “market” that predicted the recent BREXIT vote would be a “No”?
    That “vote” was blatantly manipulated in the final days by anomalous bets in large amounts on the NO side of the ledger.
    The 1% zillionaire oligarchs are flooding Hitlery’s campaign with mega$$$. Why do you think they would miss an opportunity to manipulate an “indicator” like this, given all the despicable manipulative crap revealed in the DNC emails??

  10. Bobo says:

    Yes, the Dems won the production side of summer but then they have always had theThespians while the other side has had the Entrepreneurs. She should get a good bounce out of this and drag Donald through the dog days of summer but the Fall is coming.
    When Hill talks about the We and I you have to chuckle as she carries an awful lot of baggage around that was never created by We but I. Does America really want a President with this amount of baggage that we know will be nothing more than another Novella of scandal, investigations and mea culpas or do we want to get something done for the We of this country.
    Come September the kids go back to school, bills have to be paid and plans for the future need to be sketched out. I do not think she has a chance.

  11. Stuart Wood says:

    A well crafted speech that gave a positive msg vs Trump’s. She’s not a gifted speaker but I think she did better than expected. Let’s see if she gets a bump in the polls in the next week. I was impressed by Gen. Allen’s speech, Kahn the Muslim whose army son was killed in action, and the night before speech by Bloomberg.

  12. Peter Reichard says:

    Hillary is an even bigger shill for Wall Street than was Obama. I believe nothing she says and expect a President HRC to suddenly find a “modified” TPP to be acceptable. Polls at this point mean little except to show that this thing is really up for grabs.

  13. LondonBob says:

    Despite the spectacularly bad pick of Pence as VP I see no reason to change my opinion that Dr Norpoth’s model will be proven right and Trump will win by five points or so. The discrepancy between state polls and national polls seems to have rectified itself, indeed the highly accurate LA Times poll, put together by the RAND people who finished 4th most accurate in 2012, have Trump up six points.
    http://96.127.53.23/election/
    What interests me at the moment is how close Paul Nehlen is to Paul Ryan and Dr Kelli Ward is to John McCain in their primaries. If Trump really is to bring change then these two losing to Trump style opponents would help a great deal.

  14. Ken Roberts says:

    Perspective from Canada: If Trump wants to to be president, then he will win. I am however still not convinced he has the necessary intensity of intent. That is what I, personally, think re the political scene. Others think otherwise !
    How Canada stands: We will work with whomever becomes the next president.
    Canadian concern re US politics: Fragmentation and exclusion of significant blocks of public — seeking life, liberty and pursuit of happiness — from legitimate political channels may produce instabilities. Coalition building, “big tent” politics, is not just to get an election won. Trump: “I will fight for you” is good. Clinton: “come join us” is also good. But where is the demonstrated substance/record re the proposed relationships ?
    On the other hand: I recently had some time in Chicago and Milwaukee to observe everyday folks. All is ok. Media coverage is not good data. The predominant attitude of folks towards the press is one of amused or ironic disengagement, except for a few people who are self-acknowledged junkies. That is: the “people” know in their gut that the mainstream (English language) press, at editorial level, is not “on their side”. Only the net, with all its many faults, is providing an outlet for the potential political energy.
    An aside, off-topic: Is anyone else concerned re Pokemon Go perhaps being a form of crowd-sourced “casing of joints” ?

  15. JJackson says:

    As a UK ‘lefty’ I think a Trump victory in November is probably the lesser of the two evils on offer.
    1] He may destroy the US one party (Borg) system with two faux options.
    2] He may fracture NATO which has been transformed into aggressive force for the military furtherance of Borg regime change dreams to the detriment of European security. It does not need more funds for armaments – if it can stop antagonizing everyone and return to a defensive alliance. Under those circumstances who would it fear? Russia, China, India and the Islamic states are not enemies – or at least would not be if we stopped poking them and broke ties with Israel and the KSA. Standing too close to these two and the Borg are our biggest problem. With Britex the EU have also got rid of Baby Borg which should let them formulate a more realistic global view and FP.
    A personal view only.

  16. Freudenschade says:

    Perhaps we should have a war game to imagine the first 100 days of a Trump presidency?

  17. Freudenschade says:

    LondonBob,
    Norpoth’s primary model is good at predicting the popular vote. For a cold shot of reality, check out the electoral map here: http://www.270towin.com
    The Sabato Crystal Ball is a pretty good model, but there are others to choose from. Under that, Hillary wins 347 to 191. Trump has an uphill climb, even if he wins the popular vote.

  18. Aka says:

    All,
    I don’t think Trump can be that bad. My guess is for the most part, he will be a normal president. I assume that Trump is (if elected) hopeing to get re-elected.
    And vote for Hilary because she’s a woman. We have had female heads of state and they were not very good or completely useless.
    Voting for someone just becuase of the gender/ the skin color/sexual orientation is not progressive.
    If US has a issue of descrimination against woman, you are not going to fix it by having a female president (look at countries which had female leaders and you will see that the descrimination is stil there).

  19. Swampy says:

    “What’s more: Nuland, a diplomat who shares many of the same views as Breedlove, could move into an even more important role after the November election — she’s considered a potential candidate for secretary of state.”
    if true, then GAME OVER

  20. Dubhaltach says:

    My pespective as a Dane
    I hope Trump wins – Clinton’s hysterical russophobia, her disastrous record in office, coupled with the fact that she’s the Borg candidate make her too damn dangerous.
    I also think what Trump’s said about NATO is entirely correct and beneficial for both America and Europe in the long run.

  21. TV says:

    CNN (Clinton News Network) won the rating for the DNC.
    Fox News won the RNC ratings.
    The bases watch.
    The DNC outdid itself, though, when it booed the Dallas Sheriff’s moment of silence.
    The Democrats – at heart – despise both capitalism and American history.
    I watched baseball most of those nights.

  22. Farmer Don says:

    OK, Col Lang welcomes comments from the peanut gallery, in this case Canada.
    This election is a long awaited American public backlash against a multi decade trend of Corp. Globalism rising over the Nation State.
    Elites such as Hillary Clinton get their power and mandate from an national election, but when they are elected, they see their responsibility to the world at large.
    If an American losses 10% of his income thru free trade/deregulation, but the increase in income to a larger amount of people wold wide is say 20%, that is good for the world as a whole.
    I’m surprised at how long it took for a powerful american public backlash to develop. But the typical American had a fair amount of fat to trim before a challenging life became really miserable one.
    Who is going to win? I have no idea.
    But it is interesting that Trump seems to have his fingers on the pulse of the internet alternate news spectrum which more and more people believe, were as Clinton has the old News System in her corner.
    Best Regards
    FD
    PS
    In my view, until unlimited money is no longer allowed in elections, you’re system will become less and less democratic

  23. DC says:

    The Republican party has proven to be the more structurally “democratic” of our main two, but its inability field a moderate candidate (which would win in a landslide, imo) to its party members has proven its undoing. Its problem is its coalition, not its process. Yet Trump may well win; it will be a close election.
    Both parties would benefit from being weaned off reliance on big money donors. Alas, I fear campaign finance reform is an impossibility unless, somehow, a viable third party can insert itself into the wicked vortex created by the rotten two.
    I am less impressed by Jill Stein’s leadership qualities, the more I listen to her, yet I admire her as a person. Gary Johnson of the Libertarians may have more of a shot at leading the country back home, unlikely as that may be. Hope is not something we should let slip away.

  24. Dante Alighieri says:

    Dear Colonel, it’s a madhouse election. It seems where you are is this: you can pick either the psychiatrist with her arsenal of psychopharmaka or the patient who thinks he is Napoleon. We in Europe can say whatever we want but in the end will have to swallow what you choose to feed us.

  25. HDL says:

    Your last paragraph contains a Big ‘If”. He seems incapable of self-censoring, a two-second tape delay would help. Could someone please send him a copy of that famous cartoon, the one with the GI holding a canteen cup, and saying: How about a nice big cup of STFU?

  26. BabelFish says:

    The next 14 days will reveal where all this will go. Unless The Orange Clown invents an even more creative way to destroy his candidacy (and he is pretty damn good at that), it will be a squeaker.
    The only play for the Dems will be to focus on getting people who normally will not vote to get to a voting booth come November. They do not have an impressive record of doing that, now that Richard Daily is long gone.
    HRC’s speech was all about detoxification. IMO, it didn’t work and it will not in the coming months. She is the most damaged presidential candidate I can imagine emerging in this age.

  27. JohnH says:

    I didn’t watch the conventions. I hate to watch politicians speak. It’s all such grandstanding, nothing more than advertising and promotion. Caveat emptor!
    What’s important is what Nixon said: “watch what we do, not what we say.” Based on that sage advice, you can ignore whatever was said during the conventions.
    Fortunately, we have a record for the Clintons, and it is appalling. Unfortunately, we don’t have a record for Trump, but what he says is appalling.
    In any case, I’m voting third party. I don’t live in a swing state, so it won’t make a difference other than registering my disgust with the two evils.

  28. Haralambos says:

    Thanks for this. I was just about to post the link.
    For those who would like the tinyurl, here it is: http://tinyurl.com/j7quqkj

  29. Barish says:

    “From a non-American perspective Trump is very likely much less disastrous than Clinton.”
    As a non-US citizen, I am in full agreement with that observation.
    I can’t stand the mere voice of that Clinton creature, to be had. But reading through the transcript of yesterday’s speech by it truly makes me cringe:
    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-hillary-clinton-convention-speech-transcript-20160728-snap-htmlstory.html
    What kinda stood out to me was this repeated plea to “join”:
    “If you believe that companies should share profits, not pad executive bonuses, join us. If you believe the minimum wage should be a living wage… and no one working full time should have to raise their children in poverty… join us.
    If you believe that every man, woman, and child in America has the right to affordable health care…join us. If you believe that we should say “no” to unfair trade deals… that we should stand up to China… that we should support our steelworkers and autoworkers and homegrown manufacturers…join us.
    If you believe we should expand Social Security and protect a woman’s right to make her own health care decisions… join us.
    And yes, if you believe that your working mother, wife, sister, or daughter deserves equal pay… join us… Let’s make sure this economy works for everyone, not just those at the top.”
    What a bunch of lies..the rather annoying repetition of that “join us” reminds me of one certain flick – and apparently someone already got to work summing the degree to which this “speech” can be trusted rather nicely:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMhhgt4suOA

  30. Margaret Steinfels says:

    I live in NYC and grew up in Chicago. That makes me a foreigner in my own country. Can I tell the rest of you fur’ners, you’ll be sorry if Donald Trump wins.

  31. Ishmael Zechariah says:

    I know next-to-nothing about Trump except what I read in the media. I hope -and a faint hope this is- that he might take a stand against the neo-cons, and de-emphasize the global domination project these have started. OTOH, I consider it highly likely that Clinton will double down and continue the current disastrous policies in the world. I consider it proven that she is a wholly-owned asset of the Borg -I do not think is the Borg queen, BTW. So, all-in-all I hope Trump wins. He seems to be hated by all the right people.
    Ishmael Zechariah

  32. DrGonzo says:

    As an Irishman, my biggest concern would be Syria, followed by Russia.
    In that case, Trump’s isolationism “trumps” Hillary’s warmongering, which I think could escalate into another Iraq level quagmire for the US. At this late stage in the Syria war, to produce a rebel victory (the Clinton clique goal) would require US boots on the ground. Would be a disaster.
    Isolationism as a theory gets knocked about a lot, but sometimes when the world becomes choatic, the smartest option is to just rid it out at home.
    In saying all that, I’m not the person who has live under a President Trump. I have the luxury of focusing on the candidates foreign policies. No doubt Americans domestically will suffer under Trump’s mismanagement (then again fear they will suffer domestically under Clinton’s mismanagement as well).
    All in all two crap candidates.

  33. Jov says:

    From a partially emotional point of view, and as a foreigner, in choosing between two not so good solutions (which is more or less always a case in politics), I’d prefer Trump to be the POTUS. Didn’t like the impression he made in the show ”apprentice” where he often made hastily and seemingly unfounded decisions(It looked like he’s so used to firing people, that pronouncing ”You’re fired”, was kind of a ritual, like morning coffee). Also, can’t deny that he doesn’t have the calmness and charm of Obama, and tends to have strange ideas.
    But many of his foreign policy arguments, especially the ones regarding the need for cooperation with Russia, and not necessarily predefined hostility towards it, sound very reasonable. He also doesn’t talk around the bush, which is sometimes necessary in a modern world where political correctness tends to be used to silence dialogue or dissenting opinions. All the time in a fight with the predominant part of the MSM, BORG, neocons and etc. who are dissecting every word he says, every phrase he uses. He dares to speak of ideas and problems that are not mainstream blessed. And as the Yugoslav/Serb communists would ask their soldiers who after WW2 went for higher education while still in the army – Why do you need the school, don’t you believe in the (Communist) Party (and its interpretation of everything you need to know)?
    The emotional part, i.e. the biased part is the one regarding Hillary and the beginning of the borg…IMO, before Bill Clinton, there was a cold war with some kind of balance of power between US and SU, fighting it all over the globe. After that came the demise of the Soviet Union, world dominance of the US, Clinton as president and the formation of the borg. There was no serious opposition in the world, internet was not very strong, Hollywood was a constant as always and the forming borg just finished building a mother ship – CNN and started experimenting.
    E.g. after the fall of communism and realizing from prison, Nelson Mandela was to be given the status of a superstar, which is not bad per se, but is a contrast to prior treatment of this great man by the msm. Another example was the war in Yugoslavia, where another borg, the late Warren Zimmerman, persuaded Bosnian Muslim leaders the late Alija Izetbegovic to withdraw his signature from the Cutileiro peace plan. As a result more than a hundred thousand people died, many others were wounded, expelled, etc. The Borg felt such powerful, that the mentioned Zimmerman protested to Bill Clinton because the US wouldn’t intervene in the Bosnian conflict against the Serbs, and here’s how a reporter – Amanpour talked to a US president at that time
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdotqDPoZ0o
    The Clintons ended leading the Borg, and 20 years from then, to this day, that’s what’s keeping Hillary politically powerful and media exposed.
    Apart from the foreign relations topics, I suppose that most of the US citizens simply want to make a living and lead a decent life, with a strong and educated middle class. Any candidate which is more likely to enable that, will have better chances.

  34. annamaria says:

    Will we be happy if Mrs. Clinton wins? If yes, why?

  35. Walter says:

    Trump and Hillary, horrible human beings, are a reflection of us the people of the USA . How and why have we become so rotten ? I have always believed that one of the reasons American kids do drugs is the shocking and sad awareness we get in our teens of how utterly full of shit our parents and other adults in our society are. We are a country of liars who’s reality is far different from the rhetoric and the platitudes that we preach. Christians are so very unchristian. Scientists sellout to the corporate funders of their research. Priests boink kids . Ministers live in mansions . Disabled people live in squalor . In my experience the average black American is the most astute citizen because they know how corrupt things really are here.

  36. Margaret Steinfels says:

    No, “y’all” will not be happy.

  37. Haralambos says:

    Michael Hudson on the convention and prospects: http://tinyurl.com/gvaukqe
    This is one intereting bit: ‘Obama’s brilliant demagogy left many eyes glazed over in admiration. Nobody is better at false sincerity while misrepresenting reality so shamelessly. Probably few caught the threatening hint he dropped about Hillary’s plan for corporations to share their profits with their workers. This sounds to me like the Pinochet plan to privatize Social Security by turning it into exploitative ESOPs (Employee Stock Ownership Programs). The idea is that wage withholding would be steered to buy into the company’s stock – bidding it up in the process. Employees then would end up holding an empty bag, as occurred recently with the Chicago Tribune. That seems to be the great “reform” to “save” Social Security that her Wall Street patrons are thinking up.’
    There is much more in the article to chew on.

  38. Trey N says:

    Great idea, because with “Fuck the EU!” Nuland as Hitlery’s Secretary of State and God-knows-which-psycopath-neocon as Secretary of War, all mankind will be totally wiped out in a nuclear holocaust within the first 30 days of the hag’s presidency.
    And that wouldn’t be much of a wargame….

  39. Imagine says:

    Trump will certainly start a trade war, and very likely a military war, with China. For decades Trump has said that China is taking advantage of us; that China and others do not respect the United States because our military is too weak. He truly believes this.
    Clinton is a professional politician, and hopefully something of a pragmatist. With Nuland as SecState, she will poke the bear for four years, increase sanctions, perhaps start a warm war with Russia but not a hot one. Except:
    There is a good possibility that Clinton and perhaps Trump could replay the Cuban Missile Crisis. To refresh American minds, this was started when America based Jupiter atomic missiles in Turkey, and Khrushchev countered with a quid pro quo in Cuba; it was ended when Kennedy blinked, and offered to withdraw the missiles from Turkey. HOWEVER, the Borg at the time spun this as initiated by the “Evil Soviets” against our blameless innocence, who were only eventually deterred by our “stalwart President”. And generations of Americans have been taught thus. Dr. Polk, correct me if I’m wrong.
    History repeats as America bases missiles in Poland & Romania, ostensibly to protect against a future potential Iranian nuke threat (do these actually protect against actual Israel nuke ICBMS? Perhaps they make sense). Because there IS no Iranian nuclear weapons program, Russia perceives this as an existential threat, and may counter appropriately.
    http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/07/22/armageddon-approaches-paul-craig-roberts/
    We thus get a choice between a definite (but probably survivable) war with China, and a possible (but possibly unsurvivable) war with Russia.
    as China and Russia have a mutual defense pact, in case of a hot war there will be little difference.
    Clinton is a con woman but she knows how to work the system. Barring nuclear catastrophe, the country will lurch on and survive. Trump is a post-modern con-man who has taken the mastery of bull$hit non-communication to a whole new level. He could easily pull an Ergodan. America as we know it may not survive.
    The Fourth Industrial Revolution hits in two years. If we can stay out of a hot war that long, the economy will eventually turn itself around. The primary responsibility for the next President will be keeping America out of a hot war.

  40. HankP says:

    Polls don’t matter until after Labor Day. Trump seems to think all press is good press, I think he’ll find out that’s not true. Crossover voting will be slightly higher than usual, but nothing earth shattering. My guess is still a fairly narrow Clinton victory, in the 51 – 53% range.

  41. Aka says:

    Correction:
    Voting for hiliray just because she’s a women is insane (heard this logic in us media).

  42. Matthew says:

    Babelfish: If you knew nothing about Hillary Clinton before her speech, then her speech was impressive. However, if you have followed her career, you’re probably thinking, “Who is this liberal imposter posing as Hillary Clinton?”
    In politics, personnel is policy.
    The Neo-Cons are rallying to Hillary. That’s enough to make her toxic.

  43. turcopolier says:

    Margaret Steinfels
    But “you guys” often directed to a group of mixed gender, or “youse” or “yuns” will be eh? pl

  44. AK says:

    I’m sure you all have seen that great friend and confidant of the Clintons, Terry McAuliffe, pretty much spilled the beans that it’s exactly what she’ll do. And of course there was the usual back-pedaling and retractions of statements. No worry – if you say something on TV, you can later say you didn’t mean it, which means you didn’t say it. What a strange world this is…

  45. Margaret Steinfels says:

    I thought “y’all” would cover the gendered, the ungendered, the bi-gendered, the transgendered, and the multi-gendered. They know who they are!

  46. Stephen Calhoun says:

    Clinton 277 Trump 261 (electoral college) This guess assumes Trump will not foolishly campaign in New York and California.
    Dem Senate by 1, GOP House
    Gridlock continues, and this reminds me that the low ratings for Congress are split between those who understand Congress are corrupt failures because: (1) failed to unwind Obamacare and New Deal, (2) failed to pass single payer and put New Deal on steroids.
    Faced with gridlock, would Trump declare a state of emergency, and proceed to, at least, dominate his enemies? (You would be unable to convince me that Trump is not, in the clinical sense, mentally ill.)
    HRC, faced with gridlock would likely follow the Obama playbook of the last six years.
    GOP will declare after the election: “We will make every effort to make Mrs. Clinton a one term president, and, her agenda is dead-on-arrival.”

  47. kao_hsien_chih says:

    I think the big picture remains mostly unchanged, and the conventions seemed designed to keep things as they were.
    The Democrats hold a demographic advantage that Trump can overcome only with the cleverest of campaigns and/or a lot of good luck. His own issues are likely to get in the way of him getting “lucky” over next few months, though.
    The big demographic picture has always been as they are now: the minorities and the coastal elites break in big numbers for the Democrat, but, especially among the former, turnout is relatively low. Obama in 2012 raised the turnout among the former quite a lot and the latter respond well in general to “save-the-world-by-transforming-it-beyond-recognition” stuff. Democratic campaign strategy, including how the convention was staged, is designed to keep this trend; the Republicans got a reliable majority of suburban whites who usually turn out in large numbers and a large majority of the white working class who don’t turn out as much–these are different in 2016, with many suburbanites unsure about Trump but more of the working class (but not by large margins) interested instead. Trump is unpopular in national polls precisely because of the suburban whites, especially women, and if he loses, this is what will have caused it.
    The big unknown is the nonvoting part of the white working class: they used to be solidly Democratic, but are now mostly nonvoters–and far less Republican than people think, as reflected in their low turnout. What Sanders showed, much more than his ability to draw out the young and the liberal, was that, with the right message, many of these apolitical white working class voters might still turn Democratic…but the Clinton machine is clearly intent on kicking them to the curb. Trump CAN appeal to them much more than, say, Romney ever can. It is not clear that he can, and the best he can do, even if he does lure a reasonable share of them to his side, is to capture the minimal majority. I don’t think they care much for “social conservatism” stuff, even if they might lean in that direction on average: they are concerned mostly about economic and personal well-being and security–jobs, terrorism, security, health care, education, and other basic services, etc: not exactly what matches up neatly with either party, at least in terms of conventional politics. I think Clinton is already making some mistakes with these voters, but it will be a very steep uphill climb for Trump to take advantage–but he is probably the only Republican who can even try with any chance of winning many of them over.

  48. HawkOfMay says:

    As far as I know, at corporate level something similar was fairly common practice when 401Ks were not the rule. For example; GM in the funding of their retirement plans often would invest that money into GM Stock instead of diversifying. I always that that it was way too much risk to have both your retirement plan and your paycheck relying on the same company. At a minimum, the company should have provided a choice. This would not be possible without some government acquiescence in the rules governing retirement plans.

  49. Babak Makkinejad says:
  50. toto says:

    The Colonel will correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems that Trump has managed to turn the “party of Lincoln” into a Know-Nothing movement!
    (For my fellow foreigners: search for “Lincoln” in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing )
    Nativism, isolationism and (with Pence) religious zealotry. Full stop. Everything else has been abandoned to the Democrats, who have gladly taken up the torch of supposedly American ideals. That’s how you end up with a speech like this:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/29/us/elections/khizr-humayun-khan-speech.html
    As a side note, I’m bemused at people railing against Hillary’s “lack of character”. As opposed to Saint Donald Trump? Come on.

  51. lally says:

    Passing virtually unnoticed during the primaries were the voting results from Democrats Abroad. By contrast, those who were running the show and hand tabulating the results were ecstatic that the “unprecedented turnout” showed participation levels @ 50% over the 2008 election.
    It is stunningly apparent that Madame Secretary is enormously unpopular among our fellow citizens living beyond our borders. Bernie creamed her by 69% to 31%.
    Not that she lost every contest though; Dems abroad in Nigeria, Singapore and the Dominican Republic did favor her.
    Fascinating regional and country-by-country results:
    http://www.democratsabroad.org/global_presidential_primary_results

  52. Go Go Trumpzilla says:

    Yeah, General Allen is exactly the kind of guy you wouldn’t want as the czar fighting ISIS. Or any job. In fact, you wouldn’t want this creep near your daughter.
    General John R. Allen Reportedly Exchanged 20,000 to 30,000 Pages of ‘Potentially Inappropriate’ Emails With Jill Kelley [Petraeus’ paramour]
    http://gawker.com/5960042/general-john-r-allen-reportedly-exchanged-20000-to-30000-pages-of-potentially-inappropriate-emails-with-jill-kelley

  53. Jack says:

    As we all know this election will be decided by a handful of states. The only polls we should watch are the polls from those states. IMO, this is going to be a Brexit like election, so I would weight higher the anonymous online polls as there could enough people who plan to vote for Trump but don’t want to acknowledge it publicly. At the end of the day it will come down to which side has more motivated supporters. There’s very few voters that are undecided and can be persuaded. It’s clear both candidates know that. See where they’re campaigning right now. The rest of us can go to sleep. I’m in the fringe minority in my Democrat state as I never vote the duopoly. My vote has never mattered.
    Personally I had to chuckle at the Borg Queen’s speech. Total dissonance from her actual record. But that’s not gonna matter to her die-hards who view her opponent as the reincarnation of Hitler. Funny, but I know a few folks who were at the Blackrock party in Philly where delegates were being plied with the best booze and food and ferried back and forth to the convention center. They were saying the amount of backslapping that was going on was real fun to watch. Wall St knows its their girl and know its their party too. They’re gonna spend whatever it takes.

  54. jld says:

    “He seems to be hated by all the right people.”
    LOL, the most distinctive feature of this election will be that a majority of voters will not so much vote FOR their candidate than AGAINST the other one.

  55. Petrous says:

    Thanks. It is an interesting , albeit alarming, piece.

  56. charles Michael says:

    Bonsoir,
    you have the complete agreement of a not so representative French man.
    opposite to the old saying, I would prefer an unknown angel(let’s say virgin politico) to a very well known devil.

  57. Go Go Trumpzilla says:

    It is clear, if Clinton wins she’ll ramp up neo-con aggression against Russia big time (think Kagan-Nuland on bath salts). She’ll redouble efforts to overthrow Assad. She’ll put the ‘Camp of the Saints’ transformation of America into high gear. She will end all restraints the globalist finance plutocracy. Bye, bye Western civilization as we knew it. And I am not being hyperbolic here.
    As Honore de Balzac once said, “The final battle for Christianity will be over the money problem, and until that is solved there can be no universal application of Christianity.”
    “Taking him to a high mountain, the devil showed him all the kingdoms of the world and their splen-dor. ‘I will give you all these,’ he said, ‘if you fall at my feet and worship me’.” (Luke 4:8-10).
    This, then, is the devil’s plan, to rule the whole world, and his people are almost ready to deliver it to him. The super-capitalists are in Financiers Enslave the World 31 control of global high finance, with Zionism as their nationalism, and Communism as their bulldozer to eliminate all other nationalisms. It’s all Luciferian. And have you noticed that nothing makes these folks as apoplectic as the Cross of Christ.

  58. Tyler says:

    raven,
    Yes, because that is not a total non sequitur based on what we’re seeing now.
    Weak troll 1/10

  59. Tyler says:

    Trey,
    You gotta remember, this is Lars we are dealing with. Not the sharpest tool in the shed and always ready to shoehorn in the most ridiculous of links.

  60. Lars says:

    This site has an excellent multi-cycle record of predicting US presidential elections. That’s all.

  61. Cee says:

    Ken,
    More than casing joints. Pokemon seems designed to be a backdoor spying mechanismsm on anyone foolish enough to use it.

  62. Cee says:

    Trey N,
    That has been my response when people plead with me about the supreme court appointments.

  63. Tyler says:

    HDL,
    Self censoring WHAT? Are you cut and pasting some what some cucked writer from TheFederalist or HuffPaint told you to? Do you have an original thought in your head?
    Hillary needs a better grade of intern.

  64. Tyler says:

    London Bob,
    Its not surprising to me. The globalists are getting in the shorts all over.
    Here in AZ, McCain’s campaign has been spectacularly tone deaf on Ward’s insurgency. His attempts to kill shot her by tying her to ISIS and defense funding were patently ridiculous, and her responses revealed as much. He’s resorted to running ads about how the A-10 program will be killed if he loses his primary, which also is pretty laughable.
    People are tired of their congressmen running off to DC after taking a hard ideological line here, and it’s showing.

  65. Tyler says:

    DC,
    Ah, the mythical moderate unicorn theory has appeared.
    The RNC has run moderates in 2008 and 2016, and look what happened.
    Trump IS actually pretty moderate, and he believes the US is a country and not a bazaar.

  66. Tyler says:

    Margaret,
    Ah, the “because I said so” lawgic.
    Nah, I think we’ll be pretty unhappy under Big Grandma.

  67. Tyler says:

    HankP,
    I can hear you breathing into that paper bag from over here.
    Big Grandma is going down.

  68. jld says:

    Ha! Ha!
    So you know something nobody knows.
    Would you mind to share this?

  69. Bobo says:

    General Allen is a well respected individual with a stellar career, but now is retired and entering civilian life. CNAS is a subject that has been thoroughly bantered about on this site so all should be well informed.
    I have always had the utmost respect for the military (granted I may be treading water here) while respecting their independence and quietude on political thought or expression. Now once retired military get up on stage and prognosticate the virtues of one candidate versus another they become nothing more than the call girl down the street who also will tell you what you want to hear.
    Facts seem to work and facts is what we get on this site.

  70. Walker says:

    As a progressive Democrat I’m extremely disappointed by the convention. The sole breaths of fresh air were exhaled on Monday. Last night’s parade of hawkish hacks, epitomized by Leon Panetta, make me deeply apprehensive.
    The Sanders wing of the party is mischaracterized as “isolationist and pacifist” (both pejorative terms today), by the Democratic establishment as well as Republicans and the press.
    Some Sanders supporters are pacifist. However, there are others who acknowledge the need for a strong military, yet also believe that 1) reliance on coercion in foreign policy is a mistake and 2) we can’t manage and should not try to achieve world dominance.
    I will vote for Clinton with the belief that Trump is worse. But I long for a different party.

  71. crf says:

    Domestic issues undid George H W Bush, were responsible for Bill Clinton’s enduring popularity, and scuttled Obama’s Presidency after 2 years. I have a feeling the Obama’s foreign policy is only as bad as it is because he’s had his domestic agenda neutered (largely by his own party). He has had nothing to do domestically beyond issuing platitudes. So he’s spent his time on foreign policy, a task he had no real interest in, and on which he has been ill-advised.
    Both candidates for President really need to have a concrete, realistic, as-bipartisan-as-possible plan to push forward in congress, along with some strategy in getting it passed.
    I am Canadian. I can tell you that the Canadian cabinet is obsessed by domestic issues. It always has been. Perhaps because the Canadian government has power to make domestic policy, something the US government has had for only brief moments during the last 16 to 20 years (Clinton’s New-Deal welfare destruction, Bush’s tax cut for the wealthy, patriot act, investment and recovery act, obamacare)! Of course I know that foreign policy has take a much greater importance for the US government: it is the major world power. But to the exclusion of all else in government? To the point where a not insignificant proportion of the US population, both left and right, entertains nihilism?
    The US government was of course, in a great place 20 years ago. Maybe not much needed to be changed by the government. And it still is in an enviable position. Sometimes laws need to be changed though. And government needs to be structured so that elections matter and the law changed according to the preference of the parties people elect.

  72. Haralambos says:

    This is yet one more take: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QManw4MsC0 It is 30 minutes.
    The Young Turks with two reporters, one from US News and World Report and one from Al Jazeera, and a blogger.
    I found this very interesting.

  73. Harry says:

    I’m a foreign resident. I hold European left wing views. I can’t bear that woman because she appears to be both corrupt and self righteous. She is the enemy of democracy and the left wing in the us. I strongly suspect Trump will win because people are sick of the corrupt status quo. Much as with brexit the polls underestimate his support because he had been described as a racist. I think a Trump win is probably a net good for the US because it will clear out a bunch of people who have made their living from the status quo. But I don’t know what Trump really thinks. I doubt he knows himself.

  74. steve says:

    I suspect we are back where we were before the conventions. The two worst candidates in modern history facing off against each other. People will be faced with voting for the lesser evil choice, or not voting at all.
    Steve

  75. Kooshy says:

    If I were Putin/ Russians and I had Clinton’ 30000 deleted emails, I wouldn’t just release them yet. They might be worth much more then just getting Trump elected. If Trump doesn’t get elected then Russian still have a trove of 30000 emails the Clintons didn’t want the public to know and Feds to see them. Anybody who might have those emails knows they can be used to coerce the future POTOS,(if she gets elected) to something more valuable, and if she refused to comply, release, and perhaps distablize and impeach if they are that bad that Clintons had to delete before Feds get to them.

  76. Fred says:

    Fortunately for me I was on vacation in the sunny South. I managed to make Chelsea’s intro of Mom and some of Hilary’s speech. I’ll have to read or view the rest. Here’s my initial perception. It’s nice to know Chelsea loved dinosaurs as a kid but I don’t think that is a word to use when introducing the grandmother-in-chief nominee. It didn’t helped any when seeing Dad’s face panned by the camera. (I notice he didn’t have that $10,000 make up job from the night before).
    America’s mom is going to “do something” about gun violence. Will that include talking about the “mass” shooting in Ft. Myers Fl the day before (2 dead, 17 injured; media silent on who did it. I doubt it even made the national news) or about the police officer who was assassinated in San Diego? Another mournful day for the thin blue line. This only a day or so after the prosecutor in Baltimore drops all remaining charges in the Freddie Grey case. What will the candidate “… who will reform our criminal justice system…” do about that? She should, but won’t, go after the prosecutor. The Law and Order candidate is going to gain some more votes while the BLM folks are going to …..
    Education, Hilary is going to go “full bailout” for colleges and universities. Music to the ears of professors, administrators, contractors, suppliers and assorted hangers on. Four more years! Of full employment without accountability. I’m sure that will garner plenty of votes, but then she already had that special interest group locked up. Where’s the money going to come from ?- everyone who pays taxes. What’s the value of the credentials being bought? Apparently “who cares” is the appropriate response.
    Security. Lets just say I’m sure she will keep our cities and towns as safe as she kept her email server.

  77. Fred says:

    Chuck,
    Did they do one on the possibility that the US Ambassador to Libya was in Benghazi to try to arrange something along those lines for the unicorns in Syria?

  78. Mark Arnest says:

    This is going to be a base election in which hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent to convince people it’s not worth voting. That said, I’ll be surprised if Trump wins. HRC is very unpopular, but her unpopularity is well established. Trump – who was a punchline when I lived in NYC back in the early ’80s – is only becoming known beyond his TV persona, and the more people learn about him, the more they’ll hate him.

  79. b says:

    “Foreigners feel free to join in. Your interests are at stake as well. ”
    Nice to see that for once admitted. So we are now allowed to criticize U.S. policies without getting banned?
    Hillary means certain new wars and certain escalations in big power competition.
    We do not really know what Trump will mean. I like his talk on peace with Russia and on NATO but he wants to make trouble with Iran which makes no sense at all (the price he had to pay for Sheldon support). His character and history point to a somewhat isolationist view on many issues. I like that very much. Fix your country but please leave others alone. For that I very much favor him knowing well that I might get disappointed.

  80. S Wood says:

    I agree, Things can change but if I were a betting man:
    Princeton Election Consortium
    A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004
    As of July 29, 12:03PM EDT:Snapshot (89 state polls): Clinton 320 EV, Trump 218 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +3.3%RSSClinton Nov. win probability: random drift 65%, Bayesian 85%Senate snapshot: Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50

  81. Tyler says:

    Lars,
    Whatever lets you sleep at night.

  82. Tyler says:

    Kao,
    The “demographic advantage” is muted because most of it lies in two states that already go blue all the time: CA and NY (really NYC for the latter).
    Hillary is shedding the Rust Belt and Coal Country as fast as she can, and she’s going to lose the race as white people realize that she’s looking to pump the US full of Mexicans as quickly as possible.

  83. Tyler says:

    toto,
    AFAIK Trump hasn’t broken any laws relating to national security or left men to die in Benghazi and lied about it.

  84. Tyler says:

    Mark Arnest,
    Yeah except the polls are showing the opposite of what your last line insists.
    dat argument by assertion fallacy. lmbo

  85. kao_hsien_chih says:

    There is no such thing as a “moderate.” There are people who buy into one set of view (liberals) and those who accept another (conservatives), each of which include packages of policies, ideals, and other characteristics don’t naturally go together–but “serious” people think they do. Then there are a bunch of people who don’t buy into them, and these are your “moderates,” which, incidentally, is why the “serious” people don’t understand moderates. Trump is a moderate. Sanders is a moderate, most Americans are moderates. Mitt Romney probably was not a moderate. Hillary Clinton certainly is not a moderate.

  86. kao_hsien_chih says:

    Trump can win if two things happen. First, he can’t bleed too many suburbanites. If they are lost, no Republican can win. Second, he has to win over a lot more of the working class whites. Clinton is helping Trump a lot here and Trump, from the beginning, has been the only candidate who could be credible to these voters. Still a big gamble on both of these fronts, so a big gamble overall. But, if Romney showed one thing, getting vast majorities of suburbanites and ONLY the suburbanites can never win elections.

  87. Trey N says:

    Maybe so Lars, but a lot of reliable past indicators in many fields of activity are now no longer valid, due to corruption on a vast scale. Best example: how high-frequency trading via algobots in the stock market, combined with the worthless drivel of current non-GAAP “earnings reports,” have ruined traditional investment strategies for individual investors. The data just can’t be trusted, and the big brokerages run amok screwing their customers (look up the latest settlement by Merrill Lynch in that regard).
    In all too many cases, what used to work — simply doesn’t any more….

  88. Cvillereader says:

    I haven’t seen McAuliffe say that and I live in Virginia. Can you provide a link?

  89. Cvillereader says:

    I grew up in NJ, worked in Chicago for many years, and now live in Central Virginia. Outside of the insular, liberal enclave in which I live, an awfully lot of people seem to be sporting Trump bumper stickers on their pick up trucks.

  90. DC says:

    I suppose you think Cruz is a moderate. Think what you will. Both Bushes were moderates; Bill Clinton was a moderate; and so was Reagan in retrospect circa the 1990’s. Moderates get elected when the system approximates open competition.
    Neither of our candidates in this cycle are moderates, imo.

  91. Margaret Steinfels says:

    By “y’all” I mean the foreigners that Col. Lang invited to join in; they too will feel the effects of the 2016 election. As far as I have followed the discussions here, most of “them” will not be happy with Clinton, however little most actually seem to know about her. Depending on where they live (say Poland, Estonia, Ukraine, etc.,) they will be even more unhappy with Trump.

  92. Haralambos says:

    This is part of Bush the younger’s plans to discredit US Social Security to allow folks the option of investing contributions in other “plans.”
    This is part of the plans for the evisceration of Social Security at the benefit of Wall Street. My better half and I receive small benefits from SS and hope to collect our EU pensions at some point as we have recently applied for them.
    Unless and until HRC commits to supporting SS, I will not even consider giving her my time of day.

  93. Trey N says:

    Would to God the immoral, lying, thieving, murdering, cowardly hag only “*lacked* character” instead of being a total psychopath….

  94. Trey N says:

    Re “anonymous polls” – our phone was literally ringing off the hook this spring from political pollsters calling to ask who we were going to vote for.
    My answer: “What the hell is it you idiots don’t understand about the concept of ‘secret ballot'”?

  95. Trey N says:

    “I will vote for Clinton with the belief that Trump is worse.”
    Just curious, Walker: given Hillary’s track record of sleaze, corruption, and lying her entire life; her total lack of sponsoring one single piece of meaningful legislation during her entire Senate term; the complete catastrophe that her Libya policy resulted in; the fact that she is a tool of Wall Street and the 1% oligarchs; and (worst of all) that she is a neocon and will continue their warmongering against Russia, China, and a large part of the rest of the world to boot — how do you believe that “Trump is worse”? What has he actually *done* to make you think that he is worse than what Hillary has already *proven* herself to be??
    I am asking this question in all sincerity. I look forward to hearing your reasons, because I am genuinely curious to learn how and why Hillary’s followers support her, given her track record and positions.
    (Anyone else who wants to try and explain this phenomenon to me is more than welcome to chime in!)

  96. different clue says:

    Tyler,
    Why would the Left freak out over the HRC-dumping-in-the-polls part of it? I think the Left would treat a Hillary defeat as an I-told-you-so moment to throw back in the DNC’s face.
    Granted, the Left would be sad to see Trump elected. But that same Left would be happy to see Hillary defeated. It would be a strange case of mixed emotions. It would be like a mass placed just exactly between two black holes of equal-but-opposite sucking power, emotionally speaking.
    And optimists on the Left would look on the bright side and be happy on balance that Trump was able to destroy 2, two, TWO dynasties in one.

  97. HankP says:

    Tyler –
    Ha. You’re the one that doesn’t accept numbers unless they agree with you, as I recall. Worship your orange god, nobody cares.

  98. different clue says:

    Cvillereader,
    Who were the people withIN your insular liberal enclave sporting bumper stickers for . . . during the primary season?

  99. jerseycityjoan says:

    I think it was a mistake to have the two conventions so close together?
    Certain my own “convention fatigue” was very obvious by Tuesday of this week and I think millions of other Americans felt it also.

  100. Mark Logan says:

    Hillary, and by a significant margin. Might carry the Senate and take a big bite out of the House too. Presidential cycles bring out a favorable demographic for her ilk.
    I may even vote for her. All she has to do is convince me she knows she got it wrong with regards to Russia on the Ukraine issue. It appears to me Kerry knows (now) that they got it wrong with Assad as well and is looking for a way to warm up to him. The coordination between our forces and the Russian ones in the area has been quite good, AFAIK.
    Trump? May have it right about Russia, but I am unwilling to have the Iran agreement torn up to get that. I strongly suspect that if it were to happen while Trump was President Bibi, aware of the fickleness of US policy, will strike while the iron is hot and successfully drag a Trump administration right along.

  101. An Sionnach says:

    This West European agrees very much with jld. My feeling is that Trump, egotistical and incoherent as he appears to be, is a far safer bet that Hitlery. We don’t know what he’s capable of, and at least some of what he has said re international issues is common sense, particularly re Russia and Putin.
    By contrast, we know all to well what to expect from the she monster. Wars wars, and more wars. And she seems to be ok with goading the Bear in his den, demonising him and acting in total ignorance or recklessness regarding Russia’s vital national interests and its history. That is something that almost certainly cannot end well for anyone. I believe, given her response to the savage butchery of Mumamar Ghaffadi, a human being, that the woman is a psychopath. Who is cool with the nuke codes in the control of a psychopath?

  102. AK says:

    I’m rather certain the citizens of those countries will be happiest with the candidate who is least likely to start a war that will turn their countries into smoldering wastelands.

  103. Trey N says:

    “a strange case of mixed emotions”
    The classic definition of mixed emotions: watching your mother-in-law driving over a cliff in your new car….
    I don’t understand the antagonism of the Bernie supporters* against The Donald: both are against the corrupt status quo; both are against the Wall Street 1% and the neocon warmongers; both want to focus on addressing the myriad problems here at home (especially the dire economic situation); etc etc. They seem to have a lot in common. Sadly, the usual elitist strategy of “divide and conquer” seems to be working quite effectively here.
    *I do get why the neoliberal and neocon Hillary supporters hate and fear Trump, since he opposes everything they stand for: more war, more financial exploitation, more special-interest/MIC cronyism, etc etc.

  104. Tyler says:

    DC,
    Because the Left is Marxism and Marxism is Globalism, which is what Hillary represents.

  105. Tyler says:

    Go Go Trumpzilla,
    A strong contender for Best New User Name 2016. Welcome aboard.

  106. Tyler says:

    DC,
    No, Cruz was running for President of Jesus Land and Outlying Social Strivers.
    Trump doesn’t care about abortion, or gay marriage, and is more than happy to let the states figure out what they want (as it should be). this is versus sending in federal mandarins interpreting Title X with total insanity in order to demand that a 6’4 300lb dude who grows his hair long is to be treated as a girl and shower next to other girls OR ELSE.
    The idea of America as a country and allowed to determine who is allowed in her borders is a radical one? Put down the pipe.

  107. Tyler says:

    HankP,
    This sad little man, unable to tell the difference between pointing out methodological flaws like D+14 sampling in a poll of 500 people and a 17 point swing across polls.
    I hope there’s room on the ledge with you and ol Maggie on November 8th for all the other true believers.

  108. Tyler says:

    Kao,
    As far as I know Trump hasn’t bragged about sending manufacturing jobs overseas and actually builds things versus being a VC ala Romney, or “putting coal out of business” for that matter.
    Trumpka and the UAW are empty figureheads who are pretending that their unions will vote in line with them as they struggle for relevance in the new coalition of the fringes.
    Trump will win them, and suburbanites are watching Ferguson with baited breath, realizing they’re one “Housing Affordability and Fairness” mandarin shipping the Section 8 types to their neighborhood and their housing prices go to hell. They know where their bread is buttered.

  109. Tyler says:

    Trey N,
    I will try to explain.
    First, imagine an ostrich. Now imagine it with its head in the sand.
    Voila. Walker and et al.

  110. Tyler says:

    Mark,
    Where can I get some of what you’re smoking? Asking for a friend. TIA

  111. Fred says:

    Mark,
    “Trump – …. is only becoming known beyond his TV persona, and the more people learn about him, the more they’ll hate him.”
    That was probably the Republican establishment’s view too. Jeb spent $130 million and lost to Trump. There must be allot more driving people if they are willing to go for Mr. T. Some adds on TV/radio/internet aren’t going to do much to change attitudes this time around.

  112. Fred says:

    kao,
    “the minorities and the coastal elites break in big numbers for the Democrat…”
    Professor, I think you have too much of the science in politics this time around. Minorities are not homogenous. Hispanic Ted Cruz was the first Hispanic to win a presidential primary, he did it in lily white Iowa. Also there are plenty of working class minorities that are being “kicked to the curb” by the Clinton machine.

  113. jld says:

    Oh! Yeah! I see why you picked your moniker.

  114. jld says:

    No, no, no, that’s not “correct” there are more genders than that:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAHvLAJ-5aQ

  115. Dubhaltach says:

    In reply to AK 29 July 2016 at 08:56 PM
    Precisely.

  116. LondonBob says:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/hillary-clinton-will-reset-syria-policy-against-murderous-assad/
    Hillary Rotten Criminal already trying to influence US policy in the wrong way.
    Interestingly the neocon mouthpiece The Times of London seemed even more hysterical in tone regarding Trump today. Also a big front page smear piece on Russia and a puff piece on the armed struggle of Iranian Kurds. So I assume the Kurds are going to be the new fashion in the ME.

  117. LondonBob says:

    Any evidence Trump has received any money from Adelson?
    http://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/candidate.php?id=N00023864
    Seems to be continuing to run a lean but efficient campaign funded by himself, small donors, rich friends and that small minority of donors who donate for reasons other than expecting a pay back.

  118. jld says:

    It appears to me Kerry knows (now) that they got it wrong with Assad as well and is looking for a way to warm up to him.


    Yes, yes, yes, like Tyler I want some of your stuff.

  119. Bryn P says:

    As a Brit I wish that I felt more confident that the views expressed on this site were fully reflective of American public opinion. Please, please for the sake of my grandchildren anyone but Hillary.

  120. Lars says:

    That venture is essentially a pure market place. People buy and sell “futures” based on an outcome. Pretty much putting money where their mouths are. And, as I stated, it has an excellent record of predicting who will win a presidential contest.
    I am sure there are other more rigged venues, but this one has been around for awhile now. Nor are there a lot of money on the line, so there is no profit in trying to rig it. It is also out of the mainstream.

  121. ambrit says:

    Oh boy. I hope you were being sarcastic in equating Marxist Globalism, (which kind, Stalinist, Trotskyite, etc.) with Hillaryite NeoLiberal Globalism, (again, which kind, Oligarchic, Financiogarchic, etc.?) Also, which Left, (The American Pseudo Left, European Left, Chinese Hybrid Left, etc.?) As a better writer than me once famously said; “The Wall Street City Bloc has always been at war with the Chinese Hybrid Left.” Why is it that Globalism generally has to be imposed from without?

  122. Muzaffar Ali says:

    Two things win an election in my humble opinion and in both Trump beats Clinton.
    1.Clinton for status quo, Trump for Change. Change has always won status quo….in all Presidential elections.
    2.The mentally and emotionally stronger candidate always wins, when everything else is equal. Clinton upsets easily, shows signs of anxiety and fear. Watch her body language and you will pick not courage but fear and anxiety.
    Trump is cool and bold and very confident. Has has no fear in traveling into the unknown…
    Mentally Trump is stronger…..Actually he has already won the contest.
    Sony Liston did not lose in the ring…he first lost the match in his mind. Cassius Clay Muhammad Ali played the mental card on Liston…rest is history.
    Trump wins by a knock out!

  123. kao_hsien_chih says:

    Fred, Tyler,
    Oh, we could spend days if we were to parse the details of the “science” of “minority” voting and all the ways the cross caricatures are wrong (even those that I just drew on). ;P The point is simply that Trump will not win by drawing minority voters, although HRC could very easily lose because enough of them will not find her credible. (Two relevant quick examples: her support among blacks is heavily concentrated on churchgoing old ladies; the younger, especially male, may not turn to Trump, but the turnout among them is very low–much is made of legal impediments, but this is mostly driven by their lack of enthusiasm for politics of either party; among “Hispanics,” the draw of “immigration” as an issue among non- and older immigrants is limited, especially among communities like Puerto Ricans, and generalizations based on the “average” Hispanics (i.e. Mexican immigrants) don’t apply to them.)
    In terms of numbers and geography, however, Trump’s path, the only conceivable path, to victory goes through the Midwest, and his ability to hold on to the “regular” Republican voters and win over the working class whites. The latter, he is doing a pretty good job, but how much so is unclear yet. The former, highly uncertain. And Trump is starting from quite a ways behind Clinton, which makes him the long shot. The point is simply that he could win, but not very likely (although more likely than some people think). 2-1 odds in favor of Clinton seems fairly reasonable to me.

  124. Thomas says:

    “This, then, is the devil’s plan, to rule the whole world, and his people are almost ready to deliver it to him.”
    The ending of the story is already known, they lose.

  125. Mark Logan says:

    Tyler, jtd…and other “low information voters” (ahem)
    “Is Kerry’s opinion of Assad changing” can be googled. Or are y’all the sort of naifs who expect public figures to loudly and clearly admit mistakes and whose minds are closed to anything less?
    The idiocy of our initial policy towards that situation was so great it is possible even Kerry could, over the course of a few years perhaps, detect it. You know this to be true.

  126. Amir says:

    no one in my circle will vote for Clinton, regardless of their near unanimous support for Bernie. I can divide them in equal three groups: one third will stay home, the other will vote for Jill Stein and to everyone’s surprise, the last third will vote for Trump (with their noses closed) just to block the Wolverine-in-Sheep’s Clothing

  127. gowithit says:

    That’s about as much a rational thought as claiming Trump is a Nazi! Clinton is as far from Marxism as Trump is from a Brown Shirt! Get real!

  128. Trey N says:

    I respect all three choices. I only hope that as more SHTF over the next three months re how corrupt Clinton and her cronies are, people from the first two groups will decide to join the third group. Keeping her wrinkled old fingers off the nuclear button today is even more important than keeping McCain’s off was in 2004.

Comments are closed.