"Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said he remains convinced Clinton is ahead, somewhere in the range seen among the polling aggregators.
“There has been a closing that’s completely natural,” Sabato said. “Every four years, you have two national party conventions that produce a bounce of varying sizes. Clinton got a substantial bounce this year that lasted for a full month. It’s usually gone around Labor Day, and by then we’ll be where we should be, which is right around four to five points” for Clinton.
In a separate question in the Reuters/Ipsos poll that included alternative-party candidates, Clinton and Trump were tied at 39 percent. Seven percent supported Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and two percent supported Jill Stein of the Green Party." Reuters
Well, pilgrims… Larry Sabato is the same fellah I watched on the TeeVee as he reported from a Republican Party convention in Richmond that George Allen, the tobacco chewing, spittoon using faux bubba who had just been nominated for governor of Vajinnyah would never be elected. Never! Well, fellow pilgrims, he was elected governor and then he was elected to the US Senate and would have been re-elected if he had possessed enough mother wit to abstain from calling a reporter a monkey because he was "a person of color." Sooo … I am unimpressed with the Sage of Charlottesville's opinion.
Actually, I think that HC's many faults as a candidate are steadily diminishing her chance of being president and commander in chief, as she correctly states the natures of the job. I would now give her a 65% chance of winning.
Accordingly, this is a moment in which to consider the pluses and minuses of a notional Donald Trump in the White House:
IMO he is a risk averse entrepreneurial deal maker and closer. He is loud mouthed but I would judge him to be timid. I knew many such in my decade long business purgatory. If you want to see his clones, watch "Shark Tank." These monstrously wealthy people are all risk averse. They are not in any way interested in backing concept companies, prototypes, and even functioning businesses unless they have thriving sales and low costs. Trump is like that and would, IMO, avoid war, the ultimate risk.
He identifies with the United States as a country rather than identifying with a larger utopian world wide "market" under US domination. This may have to do with his personal history in having emerged from recent immigrant beginnings. From my POV people with a recent immigrant past tend to be like that.
IMO he would successfully re-negotiate the various trade deals that have cost the US dearly in jobs and manufacturing.
He would also IMO re-negotiate international defense agreements that have in their present form outlived their usefulness.
IMO once you get beneath the public rhetoric Trump's immigration policy would be much like Obama's.
He does not listen well and is really not looking for unsolicited advice or disturbing information.
He is incurious and knows little of the world outside his narrow experience of deal making and project construction.
He knows little of the nature of government and the US constitutional limits on the power of the presidency. IMO he would have to make someone like Pence de facto manager of the Executive Branch of the federal government because he could not make the machine run.
He does not seem to understand that in business terms there are no quantifiable profit centers in government, only cost centers. Taxes and fiat money are not profit centers. They are part of the costs inflicted by government.
His business experience does not include successful day to day management of a large and continuously functioning organization. It is hard to imagine him managing General Electric for example. I doubt that he has the persistence and self discipline to do that.