"The failed coup attempt by elements of the Turkish Armed Forces on July 15 will enable President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to establish himself as an authoritarian ruler in Turkey. His priorities in the next few months will be to solidify the loyalty of the Turkish military establishment and complete the constitutional reform necessary to replace Turkey’s parliamentary democracy with an executive presidency, his longstanding goal. A post-coup Erdogan is much less likely to submit to American pressure without major returns. Erdogan immediately demanded the extradition of political rival Fethullah Gulen from the U.S., accusing Gulen of plotting the coup and condemning the U.S. for harboring him. Erdogan will likely deprioritize the fight against ISIS, undermining the counter-ISIS mission in Syria, as he focuses on consolidating power. He may even revoke past concessions to the U.S., including permission to use Turkey’s Incirlik airbase for counter-ISIS operations." ISW
"With a few hours and the right tools and training, you could open one of NATO’s nuclear-weapons storage vaults, remove a weapon, and bypass the PAL inside it. Within seconds, you could place an explosive device on top of a storage vault, destroy the weapon, and release a lethal radioactive cloud. NATO’s hydrogen bombs are still guarded by the troops of their host countries. " New Yorker
These are very interesting pieces of work exploring the prospects for developments in Erdogan's Turkey.
IMO the Turkish military will soon be reduced to a quivering mass of fearful people looking over their shoulders while waiting for dismissal or worse. This will produce a security vacuum in the country that is bound to be filled by Islamists.
Jennifer Cafarella raises the possibility that Erdogan will turn to AQ seeking an ally against his internal and external adversaries. If this occurs then the safety of American assets in Turkey will be severely compromised.
I will say once again that the US nuclear weapons at Incirlik air base should be removed while we still have the ability to do so without having to fight to remove them.
Think of the potential for blackmail inherent in the possession of one or more of these weapons in the hands of our enemies.
They couldn't arm it? Do you really want to bet on that? pl