If new incremental costs per barrel for US shale oil are as low as described in this article the political power of the Arab States of the Gulf is markedly reduced. It should be remembered that shale is only one portion of the ever growing wealth of petroleum reserves being discovered on US territory. The new Permian Basin reserves in Texas as well as those on the north slope of Alaska come to mind. pl
Energy independence in America will mean that we no longer have to kowtow to Middle East interests to ensure survival. This should be a strategic imperative for America.
There’s also the Vaca Muerta shale field in Argentina, which the EIA estimates has 16 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Chevron and Exxon are ramping up their investments there.
With the continued lower breakevens for US shale, it will no doubt exacerbate the fiscal deficit in Saudi Arabia who have been borrowing in financial markets to close the funding gap.
OT… important news…
Nunes Confirms There Was “Incidental Surveillance” Of Trump During Obama Administration http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-22/nunes-trump-transition-members-and-possibly-trump-himself-were-under-surveillance-du
I have been around oil people most of my life. Oil and gas production figures, reserve estimates and production costs are as accurate as DT’s White House tweets.
Which oil data would you prefer? pl
Information left out from the article to justify their conclusion:
One must wonder what his amazing BREAKEVEN WELL HEAD PRICE consist of. Capex? royalty to land owner? Maintenance budget? Disposal of contaminated fracking fluid? Interest payments?
We know what it excludes: treatment for degasification per transport regulation, transport to refinery, need of heavy oil for mixing the pentanes and other light distillates to reach requirement of gasoline standards, etc.
Living in an area of Alberta which is busy with fracking drilling, pipelines, trucking of well product, etc. I observe that there is lot of expense after the hole is producing.
Based on the above I am skeptical regarding Goldman conclusions. [as an aside we know that this firm has misled investors and public before so the firm could make extra income — all those lovely CD-s and worthless mortgage documents etc.]
Let’s get past the self protective and defensive BS. You have a long record here as a proponent of the idea of “peak oil.” You have maintained that whatever increases in reserves an production there are should be understood to be passing phenomena preceding the further and inevitable decline of world oil supplies. So, do you assert that costs of production as represented in the report are incorrect? pl
Colonel Lang, why is this bad news for the Israelis?
1- They are now prospective oil exporters and thei products inevitable will earn less. 2. Their new chums in the Gulf will be less influential in the world. pl
Real data is hidden in the vaults of oil companies and not available to the regulators and the public. If they are public companies, their estimates have so many qualifications and assumptions as to be useless.
That’s why I would rather own investments in pipelines, refineries, drillers or service companies not production outfits.
I did not assert what the costs are, I questioned as to the modus operandi of establishing the costs as depicted by the graph.
Aside from the above, I am aware that the US production fell by close to 1 million barrels per day from shale oil zenith, and since then has increased substantially, not yet at the zenith of fracked oil production of recent past.
As to the recent “find” in Alaska, if developed soon, it might extend the viability of the Alaska Pipeline; for without new oil, the pipeline will have to close down due to depletion in Purdue Bay.
Colonel, I was under the impression that Israel’s energy prospects were also in shale. I’m not an oil trader but I imagine this means that their netback would thus trend with American shale producers as well?
FWIW…my Likudnik acquaintance has been touting Israel’s prospective energy independence (as a geostrategic plus) since back when oil was trading above $100. But I was skeptical…(1) this type of bluster is common from American zionists, who are often the mark of their own propaganda; and (2) domestic production is abhorred among the Israeli Left, the religious zealots (to the extent these deposits are on-land), and some of their limousine liberal patrons here (e.g. JNF).
So far as I know Israel’s oil and gas is all off shore except for the semi-mythical Golan Heights deposits. pl
Yes, U.S. Rep. Devin Nunes (Repub. Calif.) spoke today of the alleged “incidental” collection of communications of the Trump team, that did not refer to Russia or Russians. This afternoon, Rep. Nunes held an interesting press conference about it.
Back on 8 March, Col. Lang had a post on the subject of the interception of communications. I have been preoccupied for a while, but the main culprits (that we are aware of) appear to be–
1. “Executive Order” 12333.
2. Opinion memos “interpreting” executive order 12333 and other federal laws about wiretapping, electronic surveillance, and other forms of acquiring and collecting the communications of people. These memos are claimed to be “classified” and secret, so the public and legal profession cannot look at them and judge for themselves.
3. The location(s) where the original raw, uncensored information, data, and communications are stored.
4. Who has access to the raw, uncensored information, data and communications.
5. Of the people who have access to the original, uncensored information, data, and communications, who can distribute it to other people — domestic and foreign — and who are the other people who can get it.
6. Of the people who have access to the original info and can distribute it, under what circumstances do they block out, or “mask”, the identity of the persons whose communications and data were obtained? And who has the authority to “unmask” the identity of the people before the information is distributed? (At the Congressional hearing on Monday (20 March) with FBI Dir. Comey and NSA Dir. Admiral Rogers, the “masking” issue started to appear a little).
7. “Incidental” collection of communications and data of U.S. persons who are not the original target of surveillance, usually of a foreign person.
8. Getting a foreign intelligence service to do the surveillance and collection (otherwise illegal), and give it to the U.S. agency.
Executive order 12333 was originated by Ronald Reagan, I believe, and has been amended. From what I can see from a quick check, the last amendment was on 30 July 2008 by president Bush jr., in executive order 13470, which amended executive order 12333–
The 2008 version of exec. order 12333 after the amendments is probably here, although I have not tried to check it with the amendments–
The press conference of Rep. Nunes of this afternoon is here–
The meticulous Marcy Wheeler, who when following the twists and turns over the last several years about surveillance has shown that a PhD in comparative literature can be useful, had some comments about the Congressional hearing the day before yesterday with Comey and Admiral Rogers–
This makes me wonder if there might be a political incentive on our side of the pond to keep prices artificially high in the the interests of bolstering our Wahhabi buddies against more diversified economies. Anybody care to comment on the relevance of the Petrodollar trade in supporting US debt?
Oil deposits are finite in the short term. Long term, we keep discovering more. Secondly, the only thing Bankruptcies do is bring down the basis, because the vultures (e.g. Goldman) come in and buy things up on the cheap and take out those who originally put up the cash to build up the infrastructure. Same thing happened in the housing market. The sovereign wealth funds in Iceland, Norway, and many, many other investors basically were left holding the bag. In fact, were it not for CMBS, many heritage properties that a family or high net worth individual would not normally sell, were sold due to the sky high prices. Those assets then ended up in special servicing, allowing entities like Blackrock and GS to come in and pick them off on the cheap. It was a massive transfer of wealth on the backs of individuals and foreign SWF, not to mention the repeal of Glass Steagall. Cruel trick, but ingenious.
Marcy also made comments on her blag that the FBI information is readily available to any FBI agent for the asking based essentially on the same IT access levels Bradley Manning used when he surfed through the IT systems soaking up everything he could get his hands on. I find it hard to believe that such open access to IT systems for those with no actual need to know wouldn’t have been corrected by the Obama Administration once it came to light.
A separate issue left out of all the discussions are the three House IT staffers who were recently fired:
I am being completely earnest when I tell you I hope that you are right.
I would like to not have my kids deal with the shitstorm that will happen if Norbert M Salamon et al are correct in their analysis.
I am trying to figure out how to hedge my bets so that I can muddle through regardless who is right.
If you are right it will be a damn sight easier.
Marcy is absolutely hilarious, and yes a little mean. 😉
In any case, after today’s hearing I am beginning to suspect the IC doesn’t like to have public hearings not because someone like me will learn something, but because we’ll see how painfully little most of the so-called overseers have learned in all the private briefings the IC has given them. If these men don’t understand the full implications of incidental collection, two months after details of Flynn’s conversations have been leaked, then it seems likely they’ve been intentionally mis or underinformed.
Or perhaps they’re just not so bright.
Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxFm1TXshZY
The planet is not in deep trouble. The planet is going to be just fine. It’s existed for 4+ billion years and will continue long after you and I are gone. We have a dearth of CO2 on this earth, not a surplus. And as the world population grows, we will need more of it to feed the population without stressing water supply. Thankfully, crops have increased 33% since 1990. A good thing.
Burt Rutan (the speaker in this youtube) is a remarkable man, a pioneer, and renaissance airplane designer. He has designed a new type of airplane every year for 46 years. He was building solar farms in the 1970s and designed his house in the Mojave Desert (most of his work was for the military nearby), which Popular Science in 1989 called “the ultimate energy-efficient house.” He designed Voyager, the plane that flew around the world (27,000 miles) without refueling. He designed one of the first rockets (can’t remember). He is considered a titan in the biz.
Rutan says he always has to have a hobby. So he started investigating the climate change/global warming data in the late 90s and spent 10 years examining what the data said before he created this presentation. This is not his full presentation, but anyone who has seen it say it is the best they’ve ever seen on the subject. On top of it all, it’s not boring.
The low price of oil has done more to turn the tide in GWOT than any single military effort.
Why? Low oil prices strike at the center of gravity of radical islamic terrorism. Saudi Arabia developed wahhabism, promulgated it, and funded international terrorism. With the Saudi economy in the crapper because of low oil prices, they are incapable/less capable of funding terrorist operations like they have in the past.
In the past we would not have touched the Saudi’s. We had a “special relationship with them. We over looked their really bad behavior and they continued to sell us cheap oil. We’ve now cut their throats economically, but can turn to them and claim that it is due to the invisible hand of the markets.
Now is no time to slack off. We need to look at taking legal action against US energy firms and investment firms that collaborate with the Gulf States/. OPEC. OPEC is engaged in price fixing and racketeering. We need to now destroy OPEC and insure a “free markets” for oil.
Energy independence will result in making America independent from having any vital national interests in the middle east. No more “special relationship”. We can then ignore wars, insurgencies, coups, terrorism and other disasters that plague the region. That will free up a huge chunk of American resources that were wasted on other peoples.
Mr. Victor Camp
Exactly so –
Please see below also:
A simple rule to determine which insolation cycles lead to interglacials:
Theory of chaotic orbital variations confirmed by
Cretaceous geological evidence (solar system suffers chaotic changes)
And here is the ultimate human and non-human catastrophe to avoid (happened 3 times before in geological time):
Cheap fossil fuel prices will increase life expectancy everywhere in Africa and in South America – without a doubt. It will make the internal combustion usage widely available.
I must say, only rich self-indulgent Euro-Americans seem to have a real obsession and enmity – almost like a religious sentiment – with fossil fuels.
Every single internal combustion engine that is replaced with another battery-operated rich-man’s toy, is another nail in the coffin of a pre-adolescent kid in Congo.
“Every single internal combustion engine that is replaced with another battery-operated rich-man’s toy, is another nail in the coffin of a pre-adolescent kid in Congo.”
Really? I know we export a number of used cars to the Caribbean from the US but I was unaware that used vehicles were being exported to the Congo in any appreciable number or that battery operated vehicles were the driver of such changes. The population growth projection charts for Africa sure don’t seem to have many coffins projected.
On a bright note the virtue signalers will have no shortage of refugees to let into Europe or the US. Surprisingly what Africa seems to be running out of is, to use the German word, Lebensraum. Which is why all those other places with first world technology are so appealing.
The power-hungry Jared Kushner won’t be a happy camper 🙂
For last week’s visit, the Saudis did their homework. Understanding that Trump favors visuals, they came prepared with a series of snazzy PowerPoint slides detailing the Iran threat and opportunities for economic investment. The visit was planned and managed by Jared Kushner with an assist by new deputy national security advisor, Dina Powell. In addition to an Oval Office meeting and lunch with Trump and his high command, the prince met with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis at the Pentagon in an unusual session that included five senior White House officials, including Kushner, Powell, and Steve Bannon. During my nearly three years in the Pentagon during the Obama administration, I attended every meeting the secretary of defense had with Saudi leaders, and I can’t recall a White House official ever attending.
Here are the slides for his complete presentation, which this video is only a subset of:
i have difficulty with those who have their mind made up, one way or the other. You referring to me or Rutan? You don’t watch long videos?
Rutan makes the point that he had no idea what was correct until he studied the data (10 years) from an engineer’s POV, and, as he says, engineers have to get things right or people die. Eg: his planes. Scientists hypothesize then test, and there are no life and death consequences if they’re wrong. So, as Rutan says, he looks at data and the more data you have as an engineer, the better your decisions. And the science better work.
As for me, I started looking at the source documents eight years ago just before the Climategate scandal. I found so much of the reporting to be written by climate alarm advocates who didn’t have science degrees. The current New York Times climate reporter has a degree in political science.
The guy who came up with the ‘97% of all scientists agree’ line that Obama touted as an eternal truth cast in concrete was an Australian (John Cook) who got his undergraduate degree in physics in 1989, then became a cartoonist, web page designer, and ran a cricket blog until 2010 whereupon he decided he was going to go back to school and get his Masters in Psychology, and dreamt up his three question survey later asked of scientists based on their Abstracts tallied by commenters on his new climate blog! He found 11 944 papers that mentioned “global warming” or “climate change” in the abstract but got rid of 66.4% of them because the abstract did not express an opinion on AGW. Didn’t bother reading the paper. Just the abstract.
So where did the 97% come from?
Of the remaining number of papers there were 32.6% pro [“endorsed AGW” in the abstract] + 0.7% against [“rejected AGW”] + 0.3% uncertain = 33.6%.
Ergo, of the remaining 33.6% of the papers he looked at, he divided the ‘pro’ by the total and got this:
32.6/33.6 = 0.970238095
That is how John Cook got his 97% consensus figure. WTF?!?
John Cook, et al, just threw out the 66.4% of the 11,944 ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’ abstracts because they did not endorse human-caused global warming, or stated no position, not because they didn’t address it in the body of the paper. But since his helpers were his crowd-sourced commenters charged with making these decisions, there were no scientific controls at all on the survey, which asked “Do you believe in Global Warming?” There isn’t a serious scientist alive who would deny that the globe warmed between 1980-2003.
The figures above are from John Cook’s, et al, own abstract about how he got at the number. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024;jsessionid=0A2D741387B2757EF045523848846DC7.c2.iopscience.cld.iop.org
Serious statisticians and hard scientists ragged all over (1) his method, and (2) his conclusions. But President O endorsed it in a tweet and made him and his 97% consensus claim famous.
[It’s actually worse than that when you read his paper and read the number of scientists he contacted to “self-rate” their own paper as ‘endorsing the consensus’. But you can read it at the link if interested.]
When you get people like Bill Nye, The Science Guy–two years in mechanical engineering then a career as a television actor in science shows for kids–mock Dr. Richard Lindzen, the Alfred P. Sloan Professor in Atmospheric Physics at MIT for over 30 years, you know something is screwy. Or someone believes Al Gore (background journalism) over Dr. Willie Soon, physicist at the Solar, Stellar, and Planetary Sciences Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, who the New York Times’ so-called “climate reporter’ trashed for doubting catastrophic global warming, then something is wrong.
Thanks for those, Babak. I know Dr. Lindzen pointed out that the tilt of the earth accounted for the Ice Ages. I’m being very general. I think it’s 23.5 degrees right now (the Earth’s axis is tilted 23.5 degrees from the plane of its orbit around the sun) but it was 19.5.
Norbert M Salamon,
A minor quibble . . . the bay is “Prudhoe” Bay. That’s “Prudhoe”.
“Purdue” is a university in Indiana.
Thank you for your comments.
I am only suggesting that with internal combustion engine, very many things are possible that are not with those rich-man toys. Especially carburetor-based engines can be maintained by Africans themselves in a manner that was the common practice in US until late 1970s and without expensive and expert input from Europe.
In Congo, transportation on land is sporadic and often unavailable on a regular basis. Medicines cannot be distributed nor a sick person quickly taken to the nearest physician. Cell phones are charged by old car batteries rather than by generators (common in Iraq and in Syria).
I think this whole Electric Vehicles and Anti-Fossil Fuel mindset among certain people in Europe and North America is a rich-man’s indulgence; with precious little concern for the common man in the middle of that vast continent called Africa.
Look up please Lister Engine and imagine what it could do for the Quality of Life of Africans (or Indians, or South Americans) in their forlorn villages.
How so? It is not as if we or anyone reaches out and bans the presence of internal combustion engines in Congo.
Can you produce the smoking “rich-man’s toy”? Can you produce the “smoking nail” in the coffin? Can you show how the pre-adolescent kind-in-a-coffin count was increased by one by the smoking “rich-man’s toy” . . . if you can produce that? And tie it to the smoking “another nail in the coffin”?
You do not understand, cheap gasoline makes the internal combustion engine available to a wider world that could otherwise not afford the cost of operations.
The smoking-rich-man is setting the global agenda, the smoking-rich-man goes spends $6000 on his kids to go to Guatemala to spend two weeks helping build a $500 shack.
Really, all these electric vehicles and green energy – just like the drugs or the Left/Right games of politics – are toys and indulgences of the rich people on this planet.
“Damn the Co_2, full throttle ahead!”
The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels:
OT….just came out this AM.
The Associated Press@AP 2h
Israeli police arrest a 19-year-old Israeli Jewish man as the primary suspect in a string of bomb threats in U.S. And Canada.
It’s a good book.
Fracked oil comprises nearly the entirety of increased US oil production and it’s in free fall as fast as it rose.
Depletion never sleeps. Comparing expensive fracked oil production to much cheaper OPEC oil is a fundamental error.
Compounded by so-called loans to Africans secured with their natural resources as collateral. Can’t pay? Take their stuff. Impoverish them some more. The Chinese are giving various African countries infrastructure loans at 2-3% without the onerous theft of their natural resources, and working alongside them producing roads and factories. Grant you, the Chinese are there for the natural resources as well, but they’re paying them for them.
I remember hearing a guy on PBS from Nigeria about 8-10 years ago saying that the availability of electricity at night in the villages so that kids could study would create light years of progress. Instead, he said, one person or business has the one TV set with access to electricity and all they can do is gather round and watch soccer. Lives wasted. They sell their oil but they don’t have refineries. Again, its transnationals that own those oil companies, and they’re just pumping the resources out of their lands.
And you’re right, Babak, the bullshit of saddling them with green gadgets that siphon clean water out of polluted streams–gives a new meaning to suck it up–instead of building water treatment plants, or solar energy doodads so they can have four hours with a 100-watt bulb at night is barbaric. Constant and reliable energy is the power and engine of modern civilization. The average American housewife wastes more water cleaning out a pot than some of the African women carry back to their villages on their heads everyday. And it still has to be boiled with precious propane.
Instead of doing something fruitful we give the IMF billions for development loans and the IMF waltzes in with the bond vigilantes (Goldman Sachs, etc) who get protected loans on the federal government dole. Just like the Greek crisis. When the IMF loaned them money, the dough didn’t go the Greeks. The IMF paid it to French and German banks, and Greece got bupkis but still have to pay it back.
Energy independence is a myth just as we’d be independent of low cost clothes made in China. US has been importing oil since the 40’s and will continue to do so. Imported oil from Canada or Mexico doesn’t make us “independent”.
“Damn the Co_2, full throttle ahead!”
NASA put up a CO2 satellite about two or three years ago. Surprise, surprise. The Sahara Desert is starting to green again as seen from space.
Babak, you might enjoy this British news article. It captures exactly what you’re saying.
In China, the true cost of Britain’s clean, green wind power experiment: Pollution on a disastrous scale
This toxic lake poisons Chinese farmers, their children and their land. It is what’s left behind after making the magnets for Britain’s latest wind turbines… and, as a special Live investigation reveals, is merely one of a multitude of environmental sins committed in the name of our new green Jerusalem
Oil deposits are what they are, finite and produced over 60million years. The “more” we discover after depleting existing field is in smaller and smaller amounts. Imagine being able to fill your gas tank at every station, then one day you are limited in your purchases to 15 gal/wk. No problem. Then a year later you can only get 12gal a week so you buy a more efficient car. No problem. A few years later you can buy “more” but it’s 10gal/week. That’s what’s happened since the ’60’s. “More” was discovered but each new field was smaller. Whether you interpret this trend in apocalyptic or gradual terms is irrelevant, what is factual is that it’s happening. 2017 is not 1967.
But the Saudis still charge what the frackers charge per barrel, so they make out like hay. Alberta Syncrude is actually three times as concentrated as sweet Texas or Arab crude so the US refineries make out like hay as well. The majority of oil big companies in Alberta are American-owned (China has a slice of one). Canada supplies the US with 22% of its oil.
Even worse than that on the mortgage part, eakens. Listen to this. Highly informative AND entertaining. Throw it on your device and listen, or just crank up your computer while you pour yourself a drink. Clear-headed and fun to listen to because Bill Black is so damn expressive and logical.
That would be interesting if true, and should lead to a real rethink. Do you have any links to sets of before-and-after images showing the greening Sahara Desert as photographed from space?
I remember this young villager from around Birjand – loved to drink ice-cold water from the frig, every day; “I had never had this at home.”
His other aspirational goal was to have a radio-cassette player (not a boom box, mind you) to break the deadly dullness of the village night.
When a rich White woman says:
“It takes a village to raise a child.”,
she makes it crystal clear that she has never lived in a real village anywhere in the world )had she experienced a single hour without electricity in her life?) and has been living in a mixture of myth and fantasy.
different clue, the first link has the OC-2 satellite photos. You can follow links from there.
NASA Satellite’s 1st CO2 Maps of Earth Revealed, December 2014
Rising CO2 level making Earth’s deserts bloom: CSIRO study. CSIRO is the Australian NASA.
Deserts ‘greening’ from rising CO2
Another global warming catastrophe: the Sahara Desert is getting greener
Sahara Desert Greening Due to Climate Change?
Babak, as if on cue I happened upon this a few hours ago:
Greece to Surrender Gold, Utilities and Real Estate in Exchange For Pieces of Paper Printed in Brussels
Germany announces the final pillage of Greece
different clue, another one:
The Sahel is Greening
The answer to both your questions is both. Physicist Enrico Fermi is generally handed the chapeau for being the father of nuclear fission (or is it fusion?) in 1934–even though the Roentgen guy and Marie Curie, etc, came before him–but the PRACTICAL application of it, the real-world use of it was highly dependent on the brilliant US government engineers at the Oak Ridge Laboratory.
it’s like space travel. Scientists can theorize about the atmosphere and what it takes to travel within the different altitudes out to deep space, but designing a machine that can actually do it, can actually manage the dramatic and extreme changes of temperature and radiation through the mesosphere and thermosphere and the Van Allen Belts is another thing entirely. Remember the Challenger launch when the “O” rings failed because they launched at or below 32 F, and the entire rocket blew up and we lost all those astronauts? That’s an engineering issue. Engineering is applied science, and their meticulousness with the science must be exact, oftentimes, to within nanometer tolerances.
I’m kinda’ on the pragmatic side of things, james. I don’t presume to bluesky stuff even though I was accepted for Theoretical Physics at MIT out of high school because I was a kid genius in math and physics, or so they said. NOT NOW. I like the ‘this works, this doesn’t’ school of thought and have become more so as I’ve aged to the point of probably appearing stupid now to those around me. That’s why I l.o.v.e.d. Richard Sale’s reporting when he worked for UPI (mofo’ brilliant shit). I like to know how things work, or the simplicity of a genuine strategy with an insightful tactical plan (and Sale had an insight into the intel world he reported on that was truly remarkable and unique, with a writer’s poetic expression to polish it off, imo). So I veer towards the hard-nosed. “Show me the evidence.” Get me from A to B. Know what I mean? I have no interest in being the room smarty. I was accepted into MIT in my penultimate year of high school; I know what I can do if I want to, but the older I get I find the dumber I become. And I find fewer and fewer people who want to talk about the things that interest me.
Sleep tight, buddy. I’m going to bed.
“Really, all these electric vehicles and green energy are toys and indulgences of the rich people on this planet”
I beg your pardon, but that is the myopic point of view we heard before back in the days of the beginning of the combustible engine car.
Yup, the Greek people evidently have lost their mojo, where is the cry of Ελευθερία ή θάνατος?
Since this is a national security oriented blog, I keep dropping clues about the true nature the U.S. fossil fuel predicament. They rarely get picked up. I agree with you LeeG, production of conventional oil peaked in the U.S. in the 1970’s. We’ve been a net importer ever since and will be ever hence.
Here are some samples from comments to Art Berman’s refutation of the zerohedege article linked here:
Really Col. Lang? Zerohedge?
Maybe folks who derive income from the nations credit card aren’t inclined to acknowledge physical limits.
Free market doesn’t exist for daily essentials.
What has CO2 to do with the Sahara? Greening has to do with the availability of water