"Indeed, Hamas’s victory has set off a debate whether the administration was so wedded to its belief in democracy that it could not see the dangers of holding elections in regions where Islamist groups were strong and democratic institutions weak.
"There is a lot of blame to go around," said Martin Indyk, a top Middle East negotiator in the Clinton administration, referring to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, and his Fatah party. "But on the American side, the conceptual failure that contributed to disaster was the president’s belief that democracy and elections solve everything."
Ms. Rice pointed out that the election results surprised just about everyone. "I don’t know anyone who wasn’t caught off guard by Hamas’s strong showing," she said.." NY Times
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I know that I am nobody but I think a cursory glance over postings related to this topic will show a certain apprehension that Hamas was going to do well, very well. Starting back at least as far as "Something Wicked This Way Comes" I believe you can discern in my scribblings the pattern of what happened in Palestine.
Why did the federal government not foresee this event? It is because the political echelon of government has walled itself off from dissenting views of reality and spends its time in mutual intellectual masturbation and assurance.
The intelligence people? They were made into moral eunuchs years ago and now are too involved in the intricacies of the "kowtow" to say anything distracting and awkward.
I have been rebuked in the past for my lack of faith in the efficacy of the "reforms" carried out in the intelligence community in the last few years. I will say again that real intelligence reform is a matter of the spirit not of bureaucracy.
Pat Lang
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/30/international/middleeast/30diplo.html?_r=1
COL,
In this and in “The Duck Rule” – your analysis seems right on.
Of course, since you refuse to kowtow, no one who can do anything will listen.
It is too bad that much of what is said here is validated by the real world. Maybe someday, we can help shape/chnage that reality instead of merely predicting the outcomes.
SP
“I will say again that real intelligence reform is a matter of the spirit not of bureaucracy.”
Having worked in the federal bureacracy for 26 years I feel confident saying that real (fill in the blank) reform is a matter of spirit not of bureacracy.
“Ms. Rice pointed out that the election results surprised just about everyone. ‘I don’t know anyone who wasn’t caught off guard by Hamas’s strong showing,’ she said… NY Times.”
Hmmm…isn’t that the same thing she said about 9/11? And the same thing the administration said about Katrina and Iraq? Maybe those folks need to find some new people to know.
Despite all the incompetence that I have come to expect from this admin; I was stunned to read Rice’s comments. How ignorant can she/they be? And THIS is the person many people are pushing to be Pres in 2008. Man…I fear for the country.
jonst
me too, but I always did. pl
“I don’t know anyone who wasn’t caught off guard by Hamas’s strong showing,”
This is what happens when neo-con world making theory is interrupted by reality.
“Caught off guard.” Classic buck passing.
I have to admit Patrick that Rice is not alone in professed surprise. A lot of ex-govt types and talking heads on the News Hour/CNN have said the same thing. For the record…appearing on the New hours does NOT make one a talking head. You, and Hisham Melomn (sp?) and a few others, I run to watch and hush others in the room while you are on. But there they were saying that. I mean you could have woke me up at 3AM, after a night of single malts, ask me the question and I would have replied, “Hamas..by a big margin” and I would not have thought myself overbright if I turned out correct. How could ‘surprise’ at the results exist? I’m baffled.
I’m utterly baffled how anyone who pays attention to Palestinian politics could be taken surprise by this. Hamas have been a rapidly rising political force for the past couple of years and Fatah was Arafat for its base. The Israelis tilted to the right a few years ago and now their enemy follows. Not good.
I seem to recall an article in the week or ten days prior to the election that the Bush administration was spending millions in Palestine campaigning for Fatah. They must have had some inkling of what was going to happened.
Willfull ignorance of clear fact is the hallmark of faith-based policy-making. Col Lang, unfortunately, it should not suprise anyone that the Admin brain trust does not read, or cannot process sources like your blog. However, please don’t let up. Truth has a quality all its own. {among others, it is predictive – how’s the DoD & State doing on that score?}
You could see from pre- election press coverage on the ground over there that
Hamas was as well organized..politically..as any Major political party..The banners..uniforms..large street turn outs and demonstrations..it was obvious there was Money and Planning behind them..
With the long history of Corruption and Failures of the Fatah Party..and the Smart Grooming/Planning of Hamas..the election was no Suprise..
This is about Muslims winning the hearts and Minds of Muslims..They WANT a Muslim Solution to Muslim Problems..
I anticipate THEY will also suprise the”Infidels” with a rapid Series of Peace Proposals..with everyone..Including Israel..in the near future..they will believe it to thier advantage to do this..
I dont think any of them will push events much further ..so that there is more war..This Includes Iran…They have Made thier point..(For Now)
There may be a rapid series of Negotiations and Proposals by various Muslim Factions..that will make it seem as if They Found Reasonable solutions without Having to do things on the Wests/Americans terms..
This would satisfy and Unify the People of the middle east.
The US may be out of the region within 12 months..in this event..
There has never been any indication from the beginning that people in this Administration even have a clue whats going on or has been going on in the Middle East or among the Muslims up to this point..This is the Climax of Events set in Motion Long ago..in 1948..
If they did..9/11 would never have happened because people would have been taking thier jobs and National security Seriously..
They talk religion without understanding that..
This is a Religious Event..
The three Major Religions..
The Holy Lands..
and Destiny..
I would be interested in comments regarding the long-term clandestine funding for Hamas via Israeli intelligence services, originally undertaken to weaken Arafat and Al Fatah, and to favor the emergence of a “beyond the pale” opponent to Israeli expansionism, thus facilitating the latter. Doesn’t the Hamas victory, like the impending dissolution of Iraq, represent a major triumph of Israeli “security” policy?
Certainly, the IDF will have little difficulty in obtaining
a “free hand” for dealing with the “extremists”.
I would be interested in comments regarding the long-term clandestine funding for Hamas via Israeli intelligence services, originally undertaken to weaken Arafat and Al Fatah, and to favor the emergence of a “beyond the pale” opponent to Israeli expansionism, thus facilitating the latter. Doesn’t the Hamas victory, like the impending dissolution of Iraq, represent a major triumph of Israeli “security” policy?
Posted by: Hannah K. O’Luthon | 31 January 2006 at 04:28 AM
…thus paving the way for next version of Hamas, even more vicious than Hamas, more independent and more homocidal.
Basically, we are just repeating the whole process we do to PLO/Fatah. AGAIN…except with Hamas.
Because nobody wants to face the underlying problem.
It’s a land dispute. Israel can sustain their bad policy because we pay them. And the Palestine will sustain their fighting until they get their land using whatever mean they can get.
One thing changes: The entire region is now radicalized because of Iraq. Egypt, Syria, Saudi, Lebanon and Jordan are all ripe for move to the right. The political temperature in the area are climbing steadily. It’s going to blow in the next decade.
Simple: They’re not allowed to say that this is convenient. They have to go through the motions, it is democracy and peace, after all.
Who is to say that this doesn’t provide them with an excuse that they have wanted for a long time? Now they get to play hardball with the Palestinians, and put it on Hamas.
Hate to be so cynical, but I have not seen any inclination on the part of this administration to engage in the “peace process”. They have enough headaches, and look where this one got Clinton.
I’d say this result makes their life easier in many ways.
PL: we need some thoughts on Iran!
searp, it’s obvious this administration hasn’t wanted democracy to work with any faction except Fatah. And I agree, they’ve been disengaged with the ME since day 1. The longer the neo-cons keep us/US on the sidelines the more facts created on the ground.
11B40, much has changed in 65 years. Why accept responsibility when you can pass the buck?
One word:
“Demographics”
Goodbye Israel.
Meanwhile Egypt, Jordan, Syria et al. are saying, “I told you so.”
Some might argue that this is a good thing because theocratic governments can not compete in a globalized environment and so will eventually fall to their own incompetence. This would be true but for the time honored tradition of maintaining unity through perpetual conflict, Israel for Hamas, the US for Iran.
Iran’s position strengthens day by day, and soon their pet politicians in the UIC will demand/ask for the withdrawal of Coalition Forces from Iraq (the only thing the hard-line Shia and Sunni can agree on). How will that be received by the Neo-Cons?
Your comments that the “political echelon of government has walled itself off from dissenting views of reality…” are right on the mark. As a former intelligence officer, this has become all too apparent.
As Annonymous pointed out with the New Yorker article, this increasing religiousity is not a new phenomenon and I would suggest that it started more than 10 years ago.
Whether our government saw HAMAS coming or not, Sharon did. After all, he took the precaution of unilaterally redeploying, withdrawing, or unassing (pick your term)from the Gaza. Targeting will be a much easier matter.
Plans within plans.
“Adm. Kimmel and Gen. Short were “caught off guard” on 7 Dec 41. Whether it was entirely their fault or not, they were summarily relieved of their respective commands. By contrast, Sec. Rice seems to fall upward.
Much has changed in 65 years.”
Let’s go back to McNamara. His claim to fame was being associated with Ford’s decline including the Edsel. For that he got promoted to Secretary of Defense. There have been many other examples of our government hiring losers to lead. It may even go back even farther; I’ll leave that to my elders.
This has become our nation’s trademark: failure (the larger the better) imbues a mystique which seems to enhance one’s promotability.
And this isn’t just national; a local municipal utility got a new director whose own claim to fame was a water treatment plant project scrubbed due to public opposition and expense.
So most of us who do a good job are not getting their due because we don’t understand the system: failure is success. Or something. I still don’t get it.
john, Sharon’s unilateralism and settlement policy are in part responsible for the success of Hamas. He’s not reacting to Hamas, he’s creating Hamas.
Educating these slow learners is getting costly:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/budget_emergency_spending;_ylt=Ap9rtoaWupciTJZRNKSwK0Ws0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ–
Sorry:
Here’s the link with Tiny URL:
http://tinyurl.com/83l43
You can cut and paste it.
Col Lang – Lay people such as myself were not surprised. A no vote on Fatah has been in the works for quite some time.
A little clue re Dr. Rice…she finds the great Russian composers overly sentimental. She prefers Brahms, who I love but holy *&%$! – I don’t want to sound like an elitist but that to me shows some kind of faulty wiring..
The seventh symphony (Leningrad)
(Symphony No. 7 in C major `Leningrad’, Op. 60)
The seventh symphony was one of Shostakovich’s most famous symphonies because of the circumstances that surrounded its composition. Some contemporary listeners (based on what I’ve read in the Shostakovich newsgroup) aren’t so keen on the music itself, but I quite like it.
It was mostly composed in Leningrad in 1941-2, when that city was under siege by the Germans during World War II. It’s very composition and performance were hailed as a triumph of Soviet spirit in the face of terrible opposition. However, all is not necessarily as it seems (or, as the Soviet authorities wanted to see it). The symphony’s famous savagery (the march-theme in the first movement in particular, but in other places through-out the work) could just as easily be read as a depiction of the brutality of totalitarianism in general. Many now believe this to have been Shostakovich’s real intention..
http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/users/mn200/music/shostakovich/seventh-symphony.html
I do disagree with the reviewer regarding a triumph of Soviet spirit..it is a triumph of the Russian spirit and the power of culture. The orchestra members – like the other residents were dying of starvation during the composition. even though Russians were dying of starvation they were still going to the symphony – to feed their souls. And Shostakovich was definitely perceived as a dissident by Stalin.