Iran fired at least 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday evening, an attack that marks a sharp escalation in the long-simmering conflict between Israel and Iran and could tip the region further into turmoil and a full-blown war.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps said in a statement that the missile attack had been in retaliation for the assassinations of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah; Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh; and an Iranian commander. The statement said Iran would launch more missiles if Iran were attacked.
A spokesman for the Israeli military, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said a handful of missiles had landed in central and southern Israel, but most of the them had been intercepted. There were no immediate reports of casualties, he said. He said the attack appeared to be over by 8:30 p.m.
During the attack, air raid sirens sounded across Israel, including in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Loud booming explosions were heard above Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and flashes of light from the arcing intercepting rockets of Israel’s air defense system were visible. The salvo of missiles from Iran came a day after Israeli forces began a rare ground invasion of southern Lebanon aimed at crippling the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah there. Iran backs Hezbollah and Hamas, the two militias currently fighting Israel, as well as the Houthis in Yemen.
A senior White House official said the United States would help defend Israel and warned that a direct attack against Israel “will carry severe consequences for Iran.” The U.S. Embassy in Israel sent employees home and told them to be prepared to enter bomb shelters, the first such order in months.
Iran last attacked Israel in April, but Israel, with help from the United States, Jordan and others, intercepted almost all of the hundreds of missiles and drones fired at its territory. With the United States urging restraint, Israel’s response was muted; it fired at an air base near some of Iran’s nuclear facilities, but did not hit the facilities themselves.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/01/world/israel-lebanon-hezbollah
Comment: Is this kabuki theater attack, a retaliation for the killing of Nasrallah and others or something far more serious? We’ll see. No damage reports yet, but “at least eight people were killed and several more injured when two gunmen opened fire on a light rail train in Tel Aviv shortly after residents were urged to seek shelter from an Iranian missile attack.” There were no coordinated strikes from Hezbollah.
As in Ukraine, Russia, Lebanon and now Israel, an effective A2/AD capability, or lack thereof, seems to be a major determining factor in how one does in war.
TTG
Kabuki is my bet for now. Show for domestic audiences. Don’t forget to behead some 15 yr old girls for bending over to fetch the tv-remote without the permission of her IRGC prison guards — you can say she kissed her boyfriend. It’s still a bit dicey given that for all we know Mumbling Joe by now believe he needs to nuke Iran to insure he gets his name into the editions of the bible slated for publication in the year 99 AD. The man is so far gone he doesn’t know if he’s living in the 21st century or first. Please, please give the man a 9 yr old child to shower with or at very least to sniff her hair, he’s dangerous. And tonight it’s Tim Walz of the Pearl Buck’s The Good Earth versus Jed Clampett the cross-dressing Hillbilly of Ohio.
What exactly is Iran showing domestic audiences? That their missile force is impotent?
Mullahs start exploding in 3 . . . 2 . . .1
Christian militias in Lebanon are sharpening their knives.
Good times!
“Christian militias in Lebanon are sharpening their knives.”
Would these be the allies of Hizb’Allah? Certainly you are aware that Hizb’Allah has allies in the Christian community there? Lebanon is NOT like other areas where sect or religion can tell you who are allies or not.
Some of Hizb’Allah’s greatest enemies have been historically other Muslims, both Sunni and Shi’a. For decades some of Hizb’Allah’s closest allies have been Christian.
I suggest you need to do some reading, both on the history of Lebanon and especially Lebanese politics of the last 30-40 years.
Amber Cat,
The NYT reported td or ystdy that the new moderate Iranian President was uninformed about the pending missile volley. Because it was done by the IRGC without notifying the president. The intention being to show who runs things over there — them and not the apparently rational new Iranian President. The IRGC are approximate comparable to Hitler’s SS. If you correctly respond with the observation that, “no – it is Ayatollah Khameni who runs the show,” then you should reconsider the precariousness of sticking too firmly to that POV, because according to reports, that same esteemed holy man has been taken into custody by that same IRGC — “for his own protection.” I apologize for plagiarizing from TTG to borrow his terminology “Kabuki theater” but I’ve grown lazier with the passage of time. I think it’s accurate as far as it goes. We can stay tuned to find out how much it bears more of a resemblance to the 1962 masterpiece Harakiri, starry Tatsuyu Nakadai. It certainly has the requisite ingredients given that a band of psychopathic suicide bombing freaks has kidnapped the venerated Ayatollah.
Harakiri (1962) – Official Trailer
https://youtu.be/gfABwM-Ppng
No getting rid of raisi is kabuki theatre
what the new guy cted for and what he is saying is do not bomb the moderates,we are after all “moderates”,bomb only the irgc and not our cities.
Good bit of propaganda and shows that Iran was well advanced to attack Israel and is hoping the inevitable retaliation will spare the cities.
The fact the present outbreak was supposed to occur closer to November but was brought forward,Iran is now looking at its missile and drone manufacturing facilities being bombed soon
This will in turn impact both Russia and North Korea when a war breaks out there.
Its tele tubby time imho
24 Israeli soldiers killed these last 2 days.
Tele Tubby is working well.
F & L Yes Kabuki it is- for domestic U. S. audiences. Don’t forget that Americans are all faith healers who starve their children to death rather than allow them to have medical treatment in the name of their God. No Americans live in the twentieth century, they are all barbaric savages, here is your evidence:
Time: “Faith-Healing Parents Jailed After Second Child’s Death
https://time.com › faith-healing-parents-jailed-after-seco…
19 Feb 2014 — A Pennsylvania mother and father who believe in faith-healing were sent to jail Wednesday for causing the death of their young, sick child by refusing to take him to the doctor.”
Yep, all Americans are superstitious savages……..
Walrus I didn’t forget.
It seems, at this point of reporting, that the gunmen were far more effective than all of the missiles.
Iran says it’s done, taught the Little Satan a lesson, blah blah blah. Beaten dogs, all bark and no bite- again. Israel will continue to vanquish its enemies unimpeded.
Mr. Newhill I have a question for you. After killing 40,000 Hamas fighters out of supposedly 10,000 do you think Israel is finished with the job? It seems to me that you equate killing to achieving the purpose of the war. It is said war is politics by extension, so one doesn’t achieve their objectives by simple numbers. I have read in various other media sources the sites that were attacked were Mosad and Army HQ not civilian apartment buildings. Thanks
Muralidhar Rao,
Always negotiate from a position of strength. So the groundwork for a negotiated peace is to eliminate the enemy’s ability to continue fighting – meaning degrade his military capability by destroying military assets and killing his troops; particularly important to kill off the troops when the are an implacable ideological foe, like Hamas. Make the enemy come crawling to the negotiation table.
Mr. Newhill thank you for your reply.
Eric Newhill,
So if Bibi does not do a full scale invasion of Southern Lebanon you will renounce him? Bibi is great at talking tough while shying away from any sort of a real fight.
James,
Bibi will do as much as is needed to achieve the objective. His intel is obviously a lot better than yours, or mine.
“Make the enemy come crawling to the negotiation table.”
From your lips to Gods Ear, as the Jewish proverb states…..
Walrus,
Same as the A-bombs dropped on Japan and the carpet bombing and total invasion of Germany right into the streets of Berlin (especially by the Russians). Or the Romans plowing salt into the earth of Carthage. Or a gazillion other examples of how victorious nations achieved peace.
You are singling out Israel because of deeply embedded antisemitic tendencies.
Eric: “You are singling out Israel because of deeply embedded antisemitic tendencies.”
So, since my extended family were jewish and perished in the holocaust, then I must be that strange creature “the self hating jew”.
Would you be surprised to learn that there are plenty of jews who hate what is being done by that war criminal Netanyahoo?
Eric does equate killing to achievement, doesnt matter if it is women or children. Although being Middle Eastern himself, he HATES other Middle Easterners, especially Arabs and Muslims.
Eric thinks Israelis are not killing enough Arabs and Muslims. You know “little ones grow up to be big ones” type of thinking he is well known for here.
It appears that Iran scored some major hits, including at least one of the offshore gas platforms near Ashkelon. I suspect Israeli intercept rates were low based on what we’ve seen in Ukraine. Missile defense there was ineffective against ballistic missiles, Ukrainians has had much success with ATACMS and Russians with Iskanders.
Israeli and American response will be telling, they will have actual information on intercept rates and damage caused by Iranian missiles. If we see destroyers parked off the coast of Israel we’ll know that Iranians did well and Israel needs US to provide additional missile defense.
In any case I expect Israel to escalate further, the political leadership seems fully committed to instigating a regional war to draw US into the conflict while Biden is in power.
Iran oil refineries gonna go “boom.”
You are butchering the English language lie to call a response to a 200 ballistc-missile attack an “escalation.”
Carry on Ivan.
Not Ivan, a proud Serbian, maybe? A glorious warrior?
AmberCat – the figures don’t look good.
The previous Iranian attack was a deliberately low key affair. Signalled in advance, some of the weaponry bottom of the range missiles or drones, deliberately targeted, mostly, to be more pinprick than serious.
It’s said it cost a billion dollars to deal with that effort. (Blloomberg. Gives us a rough idea even if not dead accurate.) Even then our and the Israeli AD was saturated and some missiles got through.
The most recent attack, intended not so much to cause serious damage but to show what the Iranians could do had they a mind to it, was said to have been countered with Israeli missiles costing rather more than the missiles they were supposed to be intercepting:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/stopping-iran-attack-would-have-forced-israel-to-use-sophisticated-and-expensive-defences
They didn’t work very well. The US ships also providing cover did better but not that much better. And of the ABM’s used by the US on that occasion, they also cost millions each and it’s said there’s only a small supply manufactured each year.
These figures, rough as they are, don’t work. And the Iranians have barely started. If the Iranians put in a no holds barred attack and follow that up with others, the Israelis are virtually defenceless. The Israelis are no longer up against the weak, poorly led and technologically inferior opponents of the glory days. Time all stopped the arm waving and recognised that fact.
Worse, even if the Israelis do manage to get the US into the conflict full bore, they face the same problem that the Europeans face in the Ukrainian war. The US simply doesn’t have the necessary manpower and equipment to save their bacon. And it’s horrible vulnerable to counter-attack if it tried.
Bluntly, the crazies in Washington – Colonel Lang used to call them the “Borg” – and the substantial numbers in the American and European electorates who cheer the crazies on, have not yet got to grips with the limitations of US military power. I’m still seeing nonsense in the UK press, for instance, to the effect that the Americans should provide more weaponry for this and that. None recognising that it’s not a question of money or will. Sufficient American weaponry isn’t there and won’t be.
Of course the US could always do in the ME what the crazies in Washington want. In the terms the crazies use so freely, glass over Iran and turn Southern Lebanon into a parking lot. But even nuclear carries risks and anything short of nuclear, it’s no contest. It’s something of a stretch, anyway, contemplating the use of nuclear in these circumstances. Just so that a bunch of thugs, the “hilltop youth”, can keep driving farmers off their land and another bunch of thugs can drop 2000 pounders ad lib on civilians.
As for Israeli nuclear, that a real risk to the Israelis themselves. If the Iranians even suspect that the Israelis might use nuclear, they’ll launch a full scale preemptive missile attack that will leave Israel wrecked for good.
The Pentagon knows all this and is trying to hold the Washington crazies back, both in this case and in Ukraine. My money’s on the Pentagon, but it looks like we’re going to see heaps more corpses before the crazies finally get real.
English Outsider
Before you invest in another encyclopedia of American usage I’ll save you the trouble by indicating what “The Crazies” might mean to such an audience. And on the second link, coincidentally related, you will have to work out for yourself who the world’s greatest terrorist is —
A) Our Very Own Pampers Joe
or
B) The kindly and benevolent Oval-Faced Totalitarian himself and his mouseketeer homeys in North Korea.
Tis indeed a puzzlement?
The correct answer, EO, is A) Pampers Pooping Joe.
But you’re free to wager as you choose.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crazies_(1973_film)
Passengers suspected of having deadly ‘eye-bleeding’ Marburg virus force closure of major German station.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13917063/Passenger-suspected-having-deadly-eye-bleeding-Marburg-virus-forces-closure-major-German-station.html
F&L, didn’t know that. I had thought the term “The crazies in the basement” was from President Bush senior.
How do 2 failed Iranian missile attacks “show would Iran could do”? Unless the answer is nothing. Up is not down, left is not right.
AmberCat,
Exactly. If Iran’s intent is to intimidate Israel, they are screwing the pooch big time.
Since Iran openly sponsors murdering scum like Hamas, I can’t believe that Iran is deliberately missing targets and inflicting civilian casualties out of some sense of kindness or gentlemanly conduct, as some here want to believe. Nope, Iran’s missiles and targeting just plain suck and Israel’s and the US’ missile defenses are pretty awesome. Or maybe Iran is ruled by cowards who really are reticent to do real damage with their missiles. Either way, they have demonstrated, twice, that they are not militarily effective.
There are many people here who like to project their twisted fantasies about the so called “axis of resistance” and how, any day now, the west (includes Israel) is going to be destroyed, as all running dog imperialists should be. It is sad and amusing simultaneously. Especially since most of these people are inhabitants of the West and enjoy all the benefits of being such. Their headchopper/dictator/commie heroes would, well, chop their heads off, or line them up against a wall, or throw them off buildings in a heart beat, given the opportunity.
Neither of those were intended to inflict significant damage. They had two purposes – (i) to make a statement that Iran was truly unhappy, and (ii) assess how many missiles will be needed to saturate the Israeli antimissile defense.
If Israel launches a significant attack, expect the next Iranian attack to be about 10,000 missiles, and coordinated with a similar one from Hezbollah. Use it or lose it is an approach that Iran really does understand.
Peter Hug,
Assuming your standard leftist narrative of the event is correct (It’s not), what do you think would be accomplished by firing 10,000 missiles at Israel?
Do you think Israel is just going to roll over and surrender to radicals that want to kill them all and take their land? Dream on. Or it is simply the vision of dead Jews that excites you?
Because I got news for you. Israel isn’t going anywhere, nor will they show weakness in the face of an existential threat, and they will escalate to levels that will blow your mind.
As an aside, I suspect Israel now knows exactly where those missiles come from and the next time Iran pokes its head out for launching, it’s going to be decapitated, along with a bunch of other bad karma heading Iran’s way.
Eric Newhill,
Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal was estimated at 3,000 by the USAF in 2023 at a Congressional hearing. What they’ve made since then, what they expended and what, if any, they shipped to Russia makes that a very rough estimate. We don’t know how many Arrow, and David’s Sling missiles Israel has. We have about half a dozen Aegis ships in the region with SM-3 and SM-6 missiles. With the distance involved, neither side can be truly surprised.
What I do wonder is how many missiles can Iran launch in one barrage and how long does it take to reload. They don’t have to destroy Israel to be effective. Even from this one barrage, Tel Aviv Airport is loaded with people heading for the door. At leasr half a million Israelis have left since 7 October.
TTG,
I agree that Iran doesn’t have 10,000 missiles to fire in a barrage. I was merely giving the upside down crowd the benefit of doubt with their argument; really make my point in response without quibbling over the fanciful details posed.
Good question re; Israeli AD stockpiles. If they don’t believe they have enough AD missiles, they will go on the offensive against Iran soon, massively and ruthlessly.
As for civilians leaving Israel, I know that is supposed to be a bad thing. The upside down world actually believes that Israel will depopulate itself, handing the muzzies their river to the sea victory.
I say that is an absurd prediction. A temporary departure of non-fighters will help permit Israel to be more aggressive. They could absorb more incoming without concern for civilians. Buildings are easily rebuilt.
Basically, Iran is going to simmer down with the stupid missile attacks, or it is going to be blown off the face of the earth, along with Lebanon, Gaza and Syria and, hopefully, the Houthis.
Btw, I note that Jordan is none too happy with Iranian missiles flying over its airspace and participated in the air defense of Israel, for the second time. The Saudis aren’t pleased either and would probably be happy to quietly assist in Iran’s destruction.
Israel is no more going to cave in than Ukraine is.
I really don’t think Iran (or Hezbollah) will attack civilian targets. But if they manage to saturate the air defense system, they are quite capable of doing significant damage to Israel’s military, political, and energy infrastructure (all of which would be legitimate targets, IMO).
I don’t think either Iran or Hezbollah want to escalate, but at some point I think they really have no choice, operationally.
Loads of videos of most missiles making it through and impacting on the ground. Israelis seem to running damage control on the media denying any major hits. Meanwhile CNN document a few dozen missiles hits on an Israeli Air Force base. Hard for the Israelis to deny it when it is on video. Sure even though a few dozen missiles hit it they will claim “no damage”. Lets see if they invite media in to verify that.
Impacting on the ground? My lord! Maybe Iran killed some lizards and gophers. Allah U Akbar!
Stefan,
Lots of things going ‘boom’ and a casualty count of zero. More theatre from the Levant.
the forever wars around Israel are beginning to remind me of the early Star Trek episode – A Taste of Armageddon. the parties agree to warfare managed by a computer sim… losses are calculated & when your # is up… off to the death chamber. meanwhile, society moves along, unimpeded by property damage.
they’re not quite there yet, but seem intent on getting there.
I have been traveling the last 2 weeks and have not been online much. As far as the missile barrage, it appears to not have caused too much damage, but it was a serious escalation and will more than likely get a response. As far as the criticism of Joe Biden, let me remind the complainers that he was elected to the Senate numerous times, he has been a VP and a POTUS and none of the present critics have never even gotten close. I have tried to catch up, but there were just too much theories, conspiracies and speculations, so I will just leave most of it where it belongs. To me, we are largely seeing a repeat of the situation about a century ago and we know how that played out. Hopefully some learned something and all we get is an echo. There are plenty of people predicting the future and as I have said before, put some money in the game and you will soon find out how good you are at predicting. What a long of the prophets miss is that the old metrics do not work as well as in the past when they were created and that has to do with the increased participation of women in the economy, in politics and socially. I have 2 minute examples: A 16 year old granddaughter is driving a Jeep Wagoneer that she bought with money she made from an Internet business that she started when she was 14. Another relative has 2 PhDs, in biology and chemistry, and a venture capital outfit in CA created a job for her to assess medical investment opportunities and she works from home in Delaware. Replicate that a few million times and you got something important. As for me, Mother Nature was doing her thing while I was gone and now I have to fight back.
Lars,
Praise for Joe Biden who was removed from the campaign trail so zero delegate candidate VP Harris could be put in place and take over all those funds. Speaking of funds Kamala had zero to do with FEMA – now out of money so Mayorkis tells us – spending almost $1 billion ‘repurposed’ funds on illegal immigrants over the past two years.
Joe Biden, victor of Kabul, keeping all the air assets of the 101 and 82 grounded when American citizens in multiple states are in immediate need of assistance due to flooding from Hurricane Helene. Democrat leadership. Kamala still silent. Apparently she and aWalz can’t get Joe the Just to order those two divisions to help Americans.
“Replicate that a few million times and you got ..” Diploma mills masquerading as colleges. Not your relatives though, as apparently that multiple years in college getting multiple phds wasn’t spent studying any of the woke subjects.
“Mother Nature was doing her thing while I was gone and now I have to fight back.”
I got five foot of storm surge and half a million gallons of raw sewage from a damaged lift station in my neighborhood. Unlike the East Coast of Florida you live on, supposedly, which is partly cloudy and 85 and not impacted by a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Hopefully fighting the top of the sunscreen bottle doesn’t hurt you too badly.
No sweat Fred. Trump and the climate-deniers tour bus will be there soon to throw you a roll of paper towels.
Leith,
I appreciate the comment from the comfortably smug coast. “Science” knows what the temperature is going to be 100 years from now, and the sea level too. They just didn’t know the rainfall levels that would fall on multiple states of the Republic do to one of those things that have occurred every year since before Columbus ran aground in the Caribbean.
“Self-taught scientist William Redfield travels across central Connecticut and western Massachusetts after what became known as the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane”
https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/explore-nws-history#event-william-redfield-observes-hurricane-rotation
Oopsie no phd, guess his work in 1821 didn’t count.
FEMA and “Heck of a job” Brownie were not around then either. On a bright note, Zelensky got his $billions (minus the carrying charges for the corrupt) and FEMA under Biden-Harris (remember who she is?) made sure to divert another $billion to ‘our strength’ i.e. immigrants who are not citizens. Mayorkas says, like Zelensky, he needs even more money.
101 and 82 air assets are doing what? Not rescuing Americans in danger. At least Bush had naval, AF, and army air assets in action within a few hours at Katrina.
Actually Fred, 82nd and other troops from Bragg were seen helping out in Branford and other places in Florida. Ditto for North Carolina. Active duty Air Force is flying search and rescue. Army Corps of Engineers is working the water and wastewater plant issues plus doing safety inspections on bridges. Army HEMTT trucks and other high-wheeled vehicles are moving supplies where roads are damaged. Navy helos are also moving supplies for storm damaged communities. I hope all that is not getting in the way of National Guard troops from a dozen other states that have deployed to FL &/or NC.
You would have known that if you didn’t have your brain shaped by DonOld and Tiny D DeSanctus.
leith,
“DonOld and Tiny D DeSanctus”
LOL. I’ll steal that.
And thanks for debunking the Trumpers’ talking points.
Leith,
Thanks for the news from the definitely not inaccurate information coast.Link free too so it must be truthy. Sadly your claims don’t appear on Google or DDG. Maybe the 1,000 troops of the 82, ordered up Wednesday and deployed to NOT Florida are the ones you are referring too? Because the 3,500 FL National Guard troops activated by the Governor who hurts your feelings were already here and not placed into national service by Beach Boy Biden. Harris last seen at CA fundraiser hosted by the rich people she’s gonna raise taxes on.
Nor can I find any information that verifies the other things you claim, though I certainly wish they were true. Maybe you are reading some news from Hurricane Debbie, which came ashore wayyyyy back in August.
If you are referring to this:
“80 Guardsmen and 13 helicopters from Connecticut, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, New York, South Carolina and Florida are assisting more than 800 North Carolina Guardsmen with communities in the Tar Heel State.”
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/10/02/1000-active-duty-soldiers-called-assist-hurricane-helene-response.html
Thirteen helicopters? Including some from FL sent outside the state as well? The 82nd didn’t get ordered to send any nor is there any news on the 101 in the article I linked above. Feel free to link to the story about AF/Navy in action as it should take you more than a minute as you already saw it and obviously I just wasted ten trying to find out your ‘truth’ that doesn’t seem to make left leaning Google search.
TonyL –
I stole Tiny D and DeSanctus from Trump. He (Trump) also called him DeSanctimonious during the primary.
Fred –
Your googling skill seems to be lacking.
Check the Army Times website.
Ah the 2nd moon.Apocalypse now.on Disney.Donald said duck
First impression – Iron Dome is smoke and mirrors. Effects seems very limited from Al Jazeera’s video (length 18 minuts). So the Iranians hit what they wanted to hit. Claims of nothing was hit gives me that “Ukrainsk” feeling.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/israel-says-iran-launches-missile-attack-warns-residents-to-shelter
Supplement with on ground recordings
https://t.me/Suriyak_maps/3923
Also how long can the two parties keep up the supply of attack and defence missils. Ukraine’s AD systems have run out of missils and new supplies are limited.
Poul,
Seriously, nothing of significance was hit and the hospitals and EMT services are reporting no casualties.
OK I think I see part of the comprehension problem – something everyone needs to understand is that the Israeli ADs consist of more than Iron Dome. There is also David’s Sling and another layer of AD who’s name I forget. Then there is whatever the US, UK and French (?) are contributing real time. Iron Dome deals with the closest (to Israel) and lowest altitude.
Then there is the fact that each AD layer is guided by computers that calculate the trajectory of the incoming missiles. If the missile is calculated to not be headed for a significant target, the targeting system passes it by and moves onto missiles than are calculated to hit important targets, including heavily populated areas where there is not sufficient cover – like bomb shelters – to protect everyone.
All of that is why the AD layers are not overwhelmed by a large volume of incoming missiles as the antisemites like to fantasize will happen. It is also why some percent of the incoming missiles land and explode in Israel, creating much sound and fury, signifying nothing, on videos, just like the Iranians.
As the Iranians had warned of the attack there were no official casulties. Military targets only so just the missiles which malfunctioned or were hit by AD missed. The Israeli air forces were no doubt sent into the air etc.
But where is the “99% of the missiles/drones were shot down” narative from April?
https://apnews.com/article/strait-of-hormuz-vessel-33fcffde2d867380e98c89403776a8ac
In spite of US’s support the Iranians got through with ease. American and Israeli AD failed. If Israel is to be believed it was only 180 missiles this time. The US also got a lesson on what will happen with their Qatari air base if a real war starts. It too will be overwhelmed with ease. Plus it’s closer and weaker defended.
Now imaging nukes in those missiles. Trump was a fool to listen to Israel and discard the nuclear deal with Iran. I don’t see Russia and China saying yes to UN sanctions if Iran becomes a nuclear power. Global politics have change to much.
a little bonus: here we have an Israeli citizen facing a new world.
https://x.com/RadarFennec/status/1841165444926906834
Woo, Woo, Woo, Woo, WOOO! Indeed.
Poul, there are other videos of that same missile strike here:
https://x.com/evanhill/status/1841237261880324159
One shows at least 20 missiles in what is obviously a salvo, and I can see only 2 interceptions: the other 18 definitely hit in a tight cluster.
Another video of the same strike definitely shows secondary explosions, which suggests to me that the Iranians hit what they were intending to hit.
Meanwhile, an “analysis” by the Guardian:
“Analysis
Stopping Iran’s attack would have forced Israel to use sophisticated – and expensive – defences” with an attractive diagram of the various AD Izzies, specifying altitude and range.
Translation: AD costs too much.
Please note: the speeds given are maximums. During the ascent phase, the missile is much slower than the 4600 or 10000 km/h. quoted in the article. During the descent phase, the speed must be slowed down to avoid melting the metal or the anti-thermal cap. In the dense low-altitude atmosphere, the speed of a mobile cannot exceed 2000 to 3000 km/h. Perhaps this is why the videos show an orange ball reaching the ground. So, lots of orange balls, but rather weak explosions. You have to choose between the thickness of the metal and the active charge.
Not intercepted, surely, but no appreciable damage either. Except, of course, for a shot on target.
Well, The Guardian is telling us that the Israelis put blind faith in Iran’s promise only to attack military goals and left the population undefended.
Yeah that must be the truth. Hæ, hæ.
D74 – I didn’t register you’d picked up on the same Guardian piece before I submitted a reply above. Else I’d have said.
No sweat (I love this expression found in a US novel. I’m not sure what it means. If you want: no worries)
What’s more, following an incorrigible habit, I had forgotten to give the internet address.
Greetings
Poul, the Iron Dome has not been designed to intercept ballistic missiles. If it managed to score even one hit then I would call it a success.
What we should be asking is about the performance of the AD chain at the medium and high end, such as the THAAD and Arrow 3, especially since the latter has been selected to be part of the European Sky Shield Initiative.
In any case, we witnessed what incoming missile saturation looks like.
Well then it was a failure of the David’s Sling system. The Iranian missiles got through and it only took 180.
The interesting bit is how quickly the Iranians can replaced their missiles versus the US/Israel AD missiles. I would put my money on Iran
Then the kill-chain is a failure.
I count many more than 20 missiles hitting that air base.
That’s one of three airbases the Iranians aimed for, so a similar result would see 60+ missiles getting through just on those targets alone.
The Mossad HQ was also attacked, as was an offshore gas platform, as was an armored assembly location in Gaza.
So not all 200 missiles were directed at the airfields. Maybe half. Maybe less. Maybe more. But definitely not 200.
The IDF hit rate is very unlikely to be even as good as 50%. Probably way less.
We’ll know more if/when the commercial satellite photos come out, and if they don’t – if they are being censored – then I would take that as evidence of an abysmal intercept rate.
Greetings
Yeah, Right
We often hear the term “integrated air defence” and we have seen the nice charts depicting systems and their coverage, however I doubt many people look beyond these superficial data.
The most common misconception is the notion that if the system covering the outermost layer fails, then the second layer will take over etc etc all the way to the last layer.
For starters, the same way not all bullets / guns are suitable for all purposes, hence the existence of shotguns, pistols and assault rifles, it goes for AD systems. Each system has a specific role and function to perform and carries the sensors and the ammunitions best suited for this role.
Typically, the long range systems are tasked with the anti-ballistic role as it is preferable to intercept ballistic missiles as far away from friendly territory as possible. After all, no one knows what is at the tip of such a missile until it goes boom. The mid-range systems are the gap fillers in this scenario.
The short range systems are usually tasked with protecting the long / mid range systems from attack as their sensors cannot see far enough to detect an incoming ballistic missile at a distance that will allow for meaningful interception. Also, their munitions, which have seekers of their own, are not designed for tracking such targets. This is the problem integration attempts to solve; the systems feeding data to each other in order to have the complete picture and enable better thread assessment.
In any case, you have a point about this being a failure of one kind or another: failure at the integration level? Failure at the interception level? Failure at the coordination level, meaning battery commanders choosing the wrong system for the wrong target or not reacting fast enough?
Finally, we should also consider maths here: a missile travelling at 5000 Km/h (that is ~1.38 Km/sec), if detected at 40Km out leaves roughly 29 seconds for the whole detect-track-develop solution-fire cycle. Add to that the fact that interceptors have a minimum range, that no missile has pKill = 1 therefore one needs at a minimum 2 to kill 1 incoming and, of course, the human factor – AD systems do not operate on their own, humans are involved – and the equations of defeating a salvo become really complicated.
Simplicius has a number of videos available here
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/operation-true-promise-2-iran-strikes
Doesn’t look like smoke and mirrors to me, and doesn’t look like the IDF took out “all but a few” incoming missiles.
The video of Nevatim airbase shows salvoes hitting the base which, honestly, should be a high-value asset deserving of serious anti-missile defenses.
Further to my previous post, Simplicius links to this X thread
https://x.com/evanhill/status/1841237261880324159
There is another video in that thread showing the Iranian missile salvo hitting Nevatim airbase. I counted 20 missiles coming down, and two (yep, 2) interceptions.
I’d suggest from that video that the IDF would have to put their faith in the inaccuracy of Iranian missiles rather than on any likelihood of Iron Dome intercepting more that a fraction of them.
Yeah, Right,
You make a good point about Israel putting their faith in the inaccuracy of Iranian missiles and it has to with the economics of missile defense. The Iron Dome system does distinguish whether an incoming rocket/drone/artillery shell poses an actual danger to a ground target before attempting to engage that incoming target. That’s smart. It preserves AD missiles. But Iron Dome can’t engage IRBMs. I’m just assuming that Israel’s Arrow and David’s Sling operates on the same concept. If those systems do operate that way, I would expect a good number of those Iranian missiles to be hitting the ground rather than being engaged.
I can’t tell if the numerous missile strikes on the Nevatim Airbase hit anything of consequence. If Israel doesn’t quickly allow tours of the Airbase to see where the missiles struck, an air defense failure could be assumed. On the other hand, Israel would not want to provide BDA to Iran with such a tour. I expect to see satellite imagery soon enough.
There’s still a lot we don’t know. How about that offshore gas rig that was supposedly hit? That should be easy to confirm.
TTG: “I can’t tell if the numerous missile strikes on the Nevatim Airbase hit anything of consequence.”
I do hope you aren’t implying that the Israeli missile defense radars are good enough to tell that an incoming missiles is
(a) going to hit inside the airbase perimeter but
(b) isn’t going to hit anything of consequence so
(c) let’s ignore it.
This idea that Israeli air defenses can know to ignore an unguided garage-built rocket fired out of Gaza because it is going to hit an open field is… plausible, I suppose.
But against a precision-guided ballistic missile fired from as far away as Iran?
How can the Israelis know it isn’t going to indulge in some terminal-stage maneuvering?
Yeah, Right,
The Arrow missiles are made to hit “precision-guided ballistic missile fired from as far away as Iran.” Their capability against the newer Fattah hypersonic maneuverable missiles is unknown especially to determine if the missile is a threat or not. It’s definitely not the 99% the Israelis claim.
Oh, agreed.i’m just taking issue with any notion that David’s Sling and Arrow can avail themselves of “it’s gonna miss so I won’t fire at it” when the targets that they are designed to engage are capable of mid-flight (and possibly even terminal-stage) changes of flight path.
TTG: “It’s definitely not the 99% the Israelis claim.”
I’d like to point out now that the Iranians have released videos of the missiles being launched (see simplicius for an example) and they launch them in a tight salvo of around 20 or so.
Makes sense.
I’d also like to point out that the video if the missiles hitting that IDF airbase shows them coming down in a tight salvo of around 20 or so.
Hello.
If that salvo-launch video is typical of Iranian tactics (and I fail to see why it wouldn’t be) then the numbers-on-launch and the number-that-go-boom suggests an abysmal intercept rate.
Less than 10%. Probably waaaaay less than 10%
Yeah, Right,
“How can the Israelis know it isn’t going to indulge in some terminal-stage maneuvering?”
Not possible to predict that with a high degree of confidence. If a missile is heading your way, and your system comes up with an intercept point, your must engage. So all the talk about fancy target discrimination algorithm is just hot air.
TonyL,
Sure b/c it is inconceivable to you that a high speed dedicated computer couldn’t identify three points along the trajectory of a missile and then determine where it is going to land. Inconceivable, huh?
Yeah, Right,
Indeed, the videos showed less than 20% successful interception rate to me. Israel uses Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow 3, with supports from US Navy SM, ie. Standard Missile.
TonyL,
And Jordanian air defenses. The Jordanians are not happy w/ Iran firing over their country and have been shooting down missiles.
You guys sure are excited about alleged 20 missile salvos that get through and do no real damage. I guarantee you that Israeli planes will be flying out of those bases tomorrow.
Ohh should we not say the king was not happy.
The population is all for it. Time for a regime change in Jordan?
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/jordan-backlash-over-role-downing-iranian-missiles-heading-israel
Moon of Alabama gives a good assessment on the who, why and what:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/iran-attacked-israel-only-after-the-us-had-rejected-its-moderate-stance.html#more
Could Iran have done more damage? Nobody knows for sure but they did stay away from civilian targets by and large and did hit some critical military assets. Bibi will however not be able to resist not retaliating for the retaliation from the retaliation but I digress…all so tiring.
Another point to make: Israel has long claimed that Iron Dome doesn’t hit all incoming missiles because its radar tracks the likely impact site and is smart enough not to waste interceptors on missiles that are off-target.
OK, I guess that’s supposed to be a thing.
But here we have video of at least 20+ incoming missiles hitting the Nevatim airbase in a very impressively-tight salvo, and so that excuse doesn’t work: all of those missiles would have been “intercept worthy”.
And…. not an impressive result for the Israelis.
I can only see two intercepts, which corresponds to a less than stellar sub-10% intercept rate.
YR,
Really? How many planes destroyed? How many Airmen killed? How much damage to flight control systems, radar, etc.?
Airbases are big places with lots of open ground. Often many square miles.
Eric, it is a military air base. You know, perimeter guards, guard dogs, those sorts of things.
Moshe the cafe-owner or Abdul the greengrocer are going to be able to video the incoming missiles on the cell phones from the comfort of their own apartment balconies.
But come the morning are you really expecting them to grab their iPhones and wander onto the base tarmac to do a nice little vox-pop for the viewers of their YouTube channel?
Really?
We won’t know how many planes were destroyed, how many airmen killed, how many radar systems were smacked until some commercial satellite company agrees to sell the photos to a willing buyer.
As for ability of Iranian missiles to strike precise targets on airbases, well, gosh, we’ve been there before.
The answer is that they can – and have – precisely target individual buildings within an airbase.
We’ve all seen those videos, curtesy of the USAF.
YR,
Why yes, sure. The Israeli Air Force is out of action because of some holes in the tarmac and an office building or two was destroyed.
Can you imagine if the Israelis had these structures called “reinforced hangers” and they cleverly hid their airplanes, helos and ordnance inside them when they were put on high alert due to early signs of an Iranian missile launch? Maybe some other fixed wings took off and were, on purpose, in the sky during the attack.
I’ll ask again, where is all the missile caused damage you’re crowing about? See anything more than the last time?
My old science teacher used to stress this point: the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
The only way to do damage assessment is by either
A) the Israelis letting independent reporters to visit the site, or
B) commercial satellite imagery
You and I can forget about (A). Not gonna happen.
So we’ll see what (B) shows us.
Eric: “caused damage you’re crowing about?”
I haven’t crowed about any damage at all, Eric. I have only commented on things I have seen which,once more, yet again, is this:
1) around 20 missiles struck that air base
2) at least some of those strikes resulted in secondary explosions.
That’s it. Nothing more.
As for the claim of accuracy/inaccuracy I am quite correct to point out that when Iranian missiles struck a USAF base they were shown to be able to strike precise buildings and precise points on the runway.
Not speculation: the Pentagon released the videos.
Your claim regarding the inaccuracy of Iranian missiles is, however, pure conjecture based upon nothing more than your fervent wish that this is so.
Yeah, Right,
It’s true that the Pentagon was quite impressed with the accuracy of that strike on the airbase in Iraq. Of course it was a shorter distance than the strike on Israel, but there’s no reason to believe the Iranians couldn’t hit what they were aiming at.
Eric: “Can you imagine if the Israelis had these structures called “reinforced hangers” and they cleverly hid their airplanes helos and ordnance inside them”
Apparently there were three types of missiles launched by Iran:
Fattah (Warhead 350–450kg)
Emad (750kg)
Ghadr-110 (650-1000kg)
The first is the hypersonic beast, and the smaller warhead is compensated by the higher impact speed.
The other two will come in slower, but I find it hard to believe a reinforced hanger can resist a 750kg-1000kg warhead.
So, again, it’s down to the accuracy of the guidance system.
Time will tell.
I will point out that the serviceability rate of the F-35 is around 50%, so even if the Israelis had a few hours warning they wouldn’t be able to get all the planes into the air.
Time will tell.
YR,
To clarify, I used the term, “reinforced hanger” too loosely, as a generic way of referring to an aircraft or storage format that is impervious to missile strikes. I forget how sometimes you get very hung up on word connotation v denotation.
Anyhow, do you really believe that the Israelis are stupid enough to leave their aircraft vulnerable to strikes?
” an aircraft or storage format that is impervious to missile strikes”
Word salad indeed, Eric.
Greater minds than me can work out how much reinforcing a hangar will require to resist a 750-1,000kg warhead hitting at supersonic speed, or a 350-500kg warhead from a hypersonic missile.
No idea how thick that will need to be, but I would think that the word to describe such a structure is “improbably”.
“Anyhow, do you really believe that the Israelis are stupid enough to leave their aircraft vulnerable to strikes?”
Yeah, actually, I do.
YR,
https://flight.com.gr/israeli-nevatim-air-base-iranian-ballistic-missile
I’ve seen conventional 500 lbs bombs do more damage. That is some weak shit the Iranians are spraying and praying at Israel.
You’re kind of funny when you get all wound up. You forgot that you had already seen that pic and agreed that it was the airbase. Or maybe you’ve never seen bomb damage before. Regardless, that is not some hyper-damage caused by unusually powerful missiles.
But maybe Iran is being cautious and commanding their missiles to slow down once over the target. If they were going full speed they might just blast right through the earth and go all the way through to China. Then their ally would be upset. The “axis of resistance” could begin to crack up.
Eric: “You forgot that you had already seen that pic and agreed that it was the airbase.”
The airbase in question covers an area of over 50sq km. It is huuuuuge, with four runways and many IDF squadrons based there.
Excuse me for being monumentally unimpressed by a tightly cropped photo showing the area of the based that is obviously home to an IDF light transport / communications squadron.
I mean, honestly, you can SEE the damn planes that are based in that section. They are actually THERE IN THE PHOTO.
They – very clearly – aren’t F-35 fighter bombers so they are of no interest to any Iranian missile attack.
Honestly, Eric, do you actually look at your “evidence” before you rush into print?
Eric, that Isa very tightly-cropped photo. Even TTG has noticed that point though, evidently, you have not.
I know exactly where that is: south south-east of the secondary runway.
Note the uncovered revetments. Note the obvious un-reinforced room of the hangar.
Note, indeed, that the aircraft in THAT photo are small transport planes.
It is clear as mud that THAT portion of the airbase houses anIDF squadron that would be little-to-no interest to the Iranians.
The F-35 are based elsewhere.
I know where: they are in reinforced hangars to the north-east of the main runway.
Got any satellite photos of THAT portion of the airbase?
Nah, thought not.
Multiple missiles hit an air force base. The Israelis can’t deny it because CNN has video of it
CNN also reported that Mossad headquarters is actually in densely populatuated Tel Aviv. The Israelis have insisted forever that the reason they kill so many women and children is because Palestinians place military targets in civilian areas. CNN outed their hypocrisy pointing out to the world one of the most high value targets in Israeli is actually sitting in the middle of an highly populated area with hundreds of thousands of human shields.
Every Israeli accusation is a confression.
Aside from the questionable accuracy of your musings, so it’s bad when Israel hits civilians because enemy fighters are among them, but acceptable when Iran/Hamas/Hez does it?
Biased much?
I can’t speak for Stefan, but my view is that each is equally subject to condemnation, or neither of them are.
Perhaps you should look in the mirror, Eric.
Booby-trapping pagers worn by Lebanese men who are out buying their groceries can not be justified on the basis that those men are also reservist fighters in Hezbollah.
Just as two gunmen firing at adult Israeli passers-by can not be justified on the basis that Israeli civilians are also reservists in the IDF.
That’s my opinion, and it happens to have the saving grace that it is consistent.
Yet I would wager that you would celebrate the former but viscerally condemn the latter.
You are entitled to an opinion, but I am entitled to point out the bias.
Similarly, placing your command center in amongst a block of Beirut apartment buildings seems to me to be as subject to condemnation as is building your spy HQ in amongst a densely populated area of Tel Aviv.
But, hey, that’s just me. I’m sure you have a much different opinion.
But dare I point out that my opinion has the advantage of consistency. I suspect that yours does not.
YR,
You really believe that’s The “command center”?
Also, one pic I saw purporting to be the Mossad command center is the same pic I saw a week ago purporting to be a building in Beirut (or maybe some other town in Lebanon, but I think Beirut).
As for targets via pager, TTG already explained to you that fighters are fighters, even when they’re at the market. Ambush is killing. No military is required to give the enemy a fair chance to defend himself.
Eric: “As for targets via pager, TTG already explained to you that fighters are fighters, even when they’re at the market.”
TTG made the entirely unwarranted assumption that Hezbollah is a professional army i.e. every member of the Hezbollah militia are always on active duty, even when they are shopping for vegetables.
That’s the only way he can make his claim work.
And it is laughable: a reservist is a reservist is a reservist, regardless of whether they are a Lebanese reservist out shopping for groceries or an Israeli reservist out walking the streets of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.
They are civilians UNTIL they are called up, and it is the act of reporting for duty that changes their status.
I repeat again: blowing up a Lebanese reservist when they are out doing their grocery shopping is as much a terrorist attack as is an Israeli reservist being gunned down when they are out for a walk.
You can’t have it both ways: either they are both crimes, or neither of them are crimes.
YR,
Are you citing some recognized law, or pulling all of that out of your backside?
“Are you citing some recognized law, or pulling all of that out of your backside?”
The Geneva Conventions, Eric.
———————————-
(1) Members of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict, as well as members of militias or volunteer corps forming part of such armed forces.
(2) Members of other militias and members of other volunteer corps, including those of organized resistance movements, belonging to a Party to the conflict and operating in or outside their own territory, even if this territory is occupied, provided that such militias or volunteer corps, including such organized resistance movements, fulfil the following conditions: (a) that of being commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates; (b) that of having a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance; (c) that of carrying arms openly; (d) that of conducting their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war.
————————————————-
Section (1) refers to a standing army. To soldiers (including militia) where “soldiering” is their sole occupation.
Section (2) is clearly saying that a non-full-time-soldier become a soldier when they “fulfil the following conditions” of reporting for duty, donning their uniform, and picking up their rifle.
As in: a reservist is a civilian UNTIL such time as they report for duty.
Anything else I can help you with?
YR,
So a US spec ops guy who is wearing blue jeans, T-shirt, has long hair and a beard and isn’t holding a rifle – the enemy can’t shoot at him because maybe he’s been deactivated?
How do you who is activated and who is not? If leadership deactivates soldiers because they are aware that incoming is on the way, has the source of the incoming committed a war crime?
Does active v not active work like “time out” in school yard games?
Do activated troops not ever go to markets, movies, strip clubs, etc?
More specifically, does Hezbollah have an official process of activating and deactivating their armed forces? Is there such a condition as “partially” activated? How does the other side know what a soldier’s activation status is? Is Hezbollah really an official military, or more like a guerilla force or militia? How does that change active v inactive status?
Sorry if I can’t just accept your legal interpretations as the ultimate ruling; binding to all parties across the world.
Eric: “So a US spec ops guy who is wearing blue jeans, T-shirt, has long hair and a beard and isn’t holding a rifle – the enemy can’t shoot at him because maybe he’s been deactivated?”
Such a Spec Op dude is violating the Laws Of War, Eric.
At best, he violated the Principle of Distinction.
At worse he is committing perfidy.
The rules are the rules are the rules, and you can’t use examples of the VIOLATION of those rules to justify further violations of the rules.
A reservist is a civilian UNTIL the report for duty, Don their uniform, and pick up their rifle.
Your hypothetical S-O is ALREADY on duty. He is therefore required to wear a uniform and open-xarey his weapon, and if he DOESN’T then he is in violation of the Geneva Conventions which, dare I remind you, the USA is a signatory.
Honestly, this is the part of your postd that isn’t rocket science.
“How do you who is activated and who is not”
I’ve already told you, Eric. They are required to wear a distinctive symbol visible at a distance, they are required to carry their weapon openly.
That’s how you know you can shoot at them.
ALL of your Whataboutit questions have the same answer. ALL of them: you must at all times attempt to distinguish between CIVILIANS (who you can’t shoot at) and SOLDIERS (who you can shoot at).
To make that distinction the damn LAWS OF WAR requires that soldiers wear distinive symbols visible at a distance, and carry their weapons openly.
Why on Planet Earth are you even arguing that point, when that is undeniably true.
Now, with that in mind, go back and look at all those video of booby-trapped pagers going BOOM!
Is there a single example – even one – of that pager being in the possession of a Lebanese soldier in uniform?
Even one?
Those are all reservists. Every single one.
And, once more, yet again: a reservist is not on active duty. He is not under the command of superior responsible for his actions. He is not in uniform. He is not armed.
He. Is. Not. A. Legitimate. Military. Target.
Eric: ButWhatAbout…
Eric: ButConsiderThis….
Eric: ImagineThatThisHappens…
Give it a test, you are simply being boorish.
YR,
You have merely demonstrated that you have no idea what you’re talking about. The GCs have been held and revised/updated since WW2. You have looked right past all of the updates around guerilla type fighters (not in uniform).
But what’s the point? As usual, you are just seeking to “win” a pedantic argument that no one cares about. The US hasn’t fought an enemy that its troops could surrender to since WW2 and, even in WW2, it was just the European theater where there were reasonable expectations of humane treatment if surrendering.
No one gives a flying fluck about the “rules” or “laws” that you like to arbitrarily apply to the “colonists” (your label) you despise, but don’t apply to murdering terrorists (freedom fighters in your book).
Special operations troops are going to dress and kit out any damn way they please and they, and their regular rank and file comrades are going to kill the enemy whether he is wearing a recognized uniform or a man dress and sandals.
Sit there and play semantics and cry about it, lawyer. You’re irrelevant to the real world.
Eric, I had the same argument with Pat Lang years back, where he exploded at me with an angry tirade that Special Ops soldiers expect to be shown no mercy if they come into “the power of the enemy”.
He appeared to be quite surprised when I agreed with him: such forces are violating the Geneva Conventions, and therefore CANNOT claim the protection of those Conventions.
Now, back to the booby trapped pagers: do you possess *any* evidence whatsoever that the victims of those pagers attacks were in civilian gear in violation of the articles of the Geneva Conventions?
As in: *any* evidence whatsoever?
I’m saying that you do not and, therefore, that attack on them was *itself* a gross violation of those same Conventions.
Now, YOU are entitled to rant that this doesn’t matter – that Rules Be Damned and *your* side can kill *their* side any dn way they want.
Fine, but what you are not entitled to do is be inconsistent in your application.
As in: if *your* side is entitled to slaughter on a whim then so is *their* side, and there can be no such thing as a “terrorist attack against Israel”.
Get it? There are either rules for all, our YOU CAN PUT AWAY THE WORD TERRORISM ALTOGETHER.
Your partisan view of the world, honestly, it disgusts me.
Yeah, Right,
Pat Lang was absolutely right. I’ve been on operations where we wore or carried nothing that would tie us to a US operation. In a SMU, our MO was impersonating foreign civilians. As Eric Newhill said, the nature of how war is waged has changed. Those Hezbollah operatives (the term we use in the Special Operations community) were carrying Hezbollah issued communication devices. What was reported was that casualties were largely limited to Hezbollah operatives and their allies, some IRGC members in Deir Ezzor and the Iranian Ambassador in Beirut. Those booby-trapped pagers were far more discriminating than those 2,000 lbs bombs dropped in Gaza and Beirut.
YR,
Anyhow, you, and several others here, would do well to read Article 52 of the GCs. A couple of highlights:
“In so far as objects are concerned, military objectives are limited to those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action and whose total or partial destruction, capture or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage.”
Any attack must be justified by military necessity: an attack or action must be intended to help in the military defeat of the enemy, it must be an attack on a military objective and the harm caused to protected civilians or civilian property must be proportional and not “excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated”.
So even the GCs don’t prohibit blowing up civilian stuff, killing civilians or – more germane – killing reserve troops.
Protocol I suggests that if it is not clear, then the parties to the conflict should err on the side of caution, as Article 52 states: “In case of doubt whether an object which is normally dedicated to civilian purposes, such as a place of worship, a house, or other dwelling or a school, is being used to make an effective contribution to military action, it shall be presumed not to be so used”
So, again, even blowing a school or mosque, as has happened in Gaza, is not strictly prohibited. Also, killing reservists could easily be construed to be making an effective contribution to military action.
There’s a lot more that’s applicable, but no need to delve into it. The point has been made.
Your attempt at lawyering is excessively facile and assumes a lack of knowledge and/or a laziness on the part of whoever is on the receiving end of your pontificating.
TTG: “Pat Lang was absolutely right.”
Indeed he was. He seemed quite taken aback when I told him he was absolutely correct.
He didn’t like my explanation for WHY he was absolutely correct but, honestly that was how things went between him and me.
YR,
Not quite even broken clock syndrome in your case; only a superficial agreement at best.
YR,
You know what? It’s sissy coward maggots like you that have gotten a lot of troops killed and wounded; you and your out of touch lawyerly approach to fighting that you’ll never personally do.
A muslim woman looks out of place. Something is wrong. She’s walking up on US troops. The troops have seen this before. They ask permission to open fire, which is utterly stupid as troops should be able to initiate whatever action they need to in the moment.
Some other less than useless little prick at HQ, reading from a woke manual, written by some lawyer mouthed no skin in the game jerk like you says, “no”.
The woman gets closer and detonates, killing her own sorry ass and some US troops, maiming others. That happened frequently enough to be a thing. I’m sure the IDF knows all about it too, only they aren’t taking direction from someone like you. No one real has any respect for your type. You are hopefully relegated to impressing comrade pussies on the internet and have no involvement with the Australian military.
Eric: “A muslim woman looks out of place. Something is wrong.”
Back at’ya’: Alebanese man is buying vegetables at a grocery shop. He is wearing a pager.
QED: Israel can kill him.
That is your argument, is it no
And if it isn’t, then explain to me why it sn’t.
Take your time. I’ll wait.
YR,
Already been addressed by TTG and me. The fact that the Lebanese man has the explosive pager defines him as a Hezbollah fighter. The pagers were only issued to fighters. There is exponentially less doubt about the man’s status than my example of the suicide bombing woman.
Eric: “The fact that the Lebanese man has the explosive pager defines him as a Hezbollah fighter. The pagers were only issued to fighters.”
Completely untrue, since it is an indisputable fact that Hezbollah maintains a civil service as well as a militia in southern Lebanon.
But regardless, back to my original point: AT BEST the presence of a pager indicates nothing more than that he is carrying on his person a co.munication device that would be used by Hezbollah to call up a reservist for active duty.
By that criteria an Israeli civilian.out on the town in Tel Aviv can be “legitimately” gunned down merely because he is carrying a mobile phone.
“Obviously” so, since if the Israeli government want to mobilize that Israeli nightclub-goer they’ll send him a text message to do so.
Correct?
As said before, this isn’t like the Ukrainian war. That was predictable. February ’22, you didn’t have to be a hotshot analyst or a deep thinker to know how that would go. Just had to recognise a brick wall when you saw it.
Not here. Even the hotshot analysts and deep thinkers don’t know how this one is going to play out. But long term it’s not looking good. The practicalities are all wrong, leaving aside the moral question.
When it comes to the practicalities Israel is a copybook example of doing it wrong. Rule I of taking someone else’s land is that you have to get rid of the original inhabitants. Kill them, or drive them out so they can’t get back in. Preferably, do it a long time ago when the resultant mayhem wasn’t frowned upon as it tends to be these days. Examples of full ethnic cleansing are common enough. The Armenians or the Pontic Greeks serve as successful examples. Job done for good.
Partial ethnic cleansing for the purpose of settlement doesn’t cut it. Leave the original inhabitants around and as we found in Kenya and the old Rhodesia, sooner or later they want their land back. You then end up with a running sore of a dispute that eventually results in their getting it.
But it’s seldom one witnesses such a botched job as the settlement of Palestine. The Palestinians aren’t the Chagos Islanders, dispersed and powerless and safely out of the way. There are millions of them and all still angry. Some still left within Israel itself, many more in the Occupied Territories, and even more in nearby regions. And unlike those Pontic Greeks or the Silesian Germans they’re kept up to date angry by the fact that the ethnic cleansing is still in progress.
What a mess. As Benny Morris says, the big mistake made was not to do the job properly in the first place. Maybe if the Palestinians had all been cleared out of the area the settlers wanted, and that long ago, then things would have calmed down by now and all would accept the new status quo. But to do it in bits right up to the present day is quite the wrong way to go about it and as said, unlikely to work long term.
And that’s just considering the practicalities of the operation. Bring in the moral question and we’re on a total loser. We all of us have a fatal tendency to consider moral questions involving other people in the abstract. But bring them down to earth. Were I to go to someone else’s house with a gun and say, this house is mine now, clear out or I’ll kill you, would not at least some of us find that morally dodgy? I would, if someone did it to me and my family. So do the Palestinians.
So neither the practicalities nor the ethics work. What a mess indeed. Relicts of a failed British colonial venture, both in my view clearly victims of that failed venture, the Israelis and the Palestinians can see no future other than, on the one hand, doggedly continuing with the work of ethnic cleansing and on the other, doggedly resisting it.
And unlike the Ukrainian case, where the relative strength of the forces involved could be assessed at a glance, here none can predict how the various forces will play out. Except that the whole thing, Biden’s efforts or not, could well blow up in our faces. Bit of a bastard for all involved, really, living this sort of history in real time.
Congratulations EO, it looks like you’ve haven’t as yet quite deciphered one of the primary riddles concerning why an exceedingly accomplished diplomat, linguist, espionage chieftain of the most powerful empire ever to exist, Officer of an elite Special Forces unit of the Armed Forces of the United States of America, award winning author and Professor etc etc somehow neglected to orchestrate the printing of Virgil’s warning to the naive pilgrim Dante Alighieri which were found etched by thunderbolts over the doors of Hell? Namely
ABANDON ALL HOPE YE WHO ENTER HERE
(?)
Once again, EO, your elementary-school pranks have failed to deceive us. You thought that by performing an above average grade imitation of a third Reich SS officer or extermination camp commandant — you thought because we are infernal devils and fiends, that we would welcome you gladly with flowers and kisses too? If so EO, you have a very sadly deficient grasp of the nature of the infernal regions. Sad to say.
F&L,
What in blue blazes are you talking about?
Nothing important (at all) and something in need of editing apparently. My apologies TTG.
It’s OK, F&L, I get your drift. And share your revulsion at the brutality of it all. But unless we look squarely at what happened in Mandate Palestine the subsequent history is an incomprehensible muddle.
Many in England knew at the time that what was done was wrong. Also foolish. Many spoke out against it. Kipling, would you believe, was dead against it. Gertrude Bell, and others who knew that region well, knew that the forced displacement of the Palestinians would lead to intractable problems. Right throughout the Mandate period many in the Colonial Office itself were indignant at what was being done to the Palestinians and sought to resolve those problems.
They failed of course. There was no resolution possible. We ignored the early attempts made by the Palestinians to arrive at a solution by constitutional means. When those attempts failed and the Palestinians turned to active resistance, we broke the back of that resistance in the ’30’s , brutally and for good. And when it all exploded into savage violence we cut and ran, leaving the Arabs at the mercy of the settlers we’d put there in the first place.
Old history? Not relevant to modern times? Afraid not. We’re now seeing the working out of mistakes made a century ago. I mentioned Gertrude Bell. Today’s Israelis and Palestinians are now living the prophecy she uttered when she heard of the Balfour Declaration.
“It’s like a nightmare in which you foresee all the horrible things which are going to happen and can’t stretch out your hand to prevent them”
I dont think we will ever know the real damage and impact of the attacks.
From the Times of Israel:
“A number of impact sites have been identified across Israel, with images of missile fragments circulating on social media. The exact locations of such impacts and damage are barred from publication by the IDF censor.”
In other words, nothing to see here, move along.
Stefan,
Israel is not going to perform as an FO for Iran.
Also, whatever you think Iran hit and whatever the reality is, it doesn’t matter because Israel is still attacking Hezbollah and is continuing to mop up the remnants of Hamas. Israel is undeterred. Iran’s missile attack was all bark and no bite. Furthermore, Israel will make Iran pay for that barrage. Israel always does.
But if it warms your heart to imagine some Iranian missiles causing an Israeli Air Force fuel tank to two to explode, then you and the rest of upside down world (Ritter, Johnson, Simplicius, MofA, Martyanov, et al) enjoy the moment, meaningless and petty as that enjoyment may be.
Are the Russians still winning their 5D chess game?
Tel Nof Airbase was struck in addition to Nevatim. It was hit multiple times. One impact appeared to cause secondary detonations. Per OSINT defense analyst John Ridge: “Tel Nof is widely historically suspected to likely house Israel’s nuclear gravity bombs.”
Tel Nof is near Rehovot approximately a dozen miles south of Tel Aviv.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/31%C2%B050'22.1%22N+34%C2%B049'18.6%22E/@31.9595588,34.6556758,11z/data=!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d31.839472!4d34.821844?hl=en&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkzMC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D
Leith,
Does anyone seriously think that Israeli nuclear weapons are just sitting around in surface hangers where they could be hit by incoming missiles?
Not me Eric. Especially not so close to Tel Aviv. Probably nobody in Iran thinks so either?
And I understand it’s damned hard, if not impossible, to set off a nuke without the trigger.
Leith,
That my understanding too.
I’m sure no nuclear scientist, but I always wondered what would really happen if a missile hit a nuke. Would it really remain inert? Dunno.
You are likely correct (I hope you are), but I don’t think it would be at all impossible to make a real localized radiological mess.
Peter H –
Damned good point! I’m a dunce when it comes to radiation, but ISTM that enriched uranium being spread around from a destroyed nuke or nukes could require a major clean up. And take the airbase out of commission for a good while.
Any nuclear physicists here in the committee?
As a total aside, I think it is worth noting the address Julian Assange gave after his release from his 14 years of imprisonment.
I think it is quite moving.
https://original.antiwar.com/assange/2024/10/01/im-free-because-i-pled-guilty-to-journalism/
Found on a comment board on RF State media.
—————————–
A Jew From the USSR:
Actually, the Jews now have … a new year. We celebrate for two days. Then, the anniversary of October 7, we will remind the world of who we are dealing with. And after that, the Israeli Air Force will light up the oil reserves of the Islamic Republic.
F&L,
If that’s the case, we’ll soon see what kind of friend Iran has in Russia.
The Israeli Air Force would not dare “light up the oil reserves of the Islamic Republic” without kinetic US support. The result of that would be the destruction of all US military bases in the region, all unprotected.
By the way, China is deeply involved in the oil production in Iran, and any attack on Iranian oil infrastructure would lead to the deaths of many Chinese engineers and workers.
Just what Israel wants. Let’s see what kind of friends Iran has in China and Russia. Keep pushing towards WWIII. You might be surprised that you can achieve it.
Is that wise?
Giving Iran has shown they can take out every power plant, every desalination plant, every natural gas facility (land and sea) in Israel? There is NO defence from Iran’s missiles.
Oh Israel. Get ready to join Iran in the Stone Age.
TTG this is an interesting observation. The local Hitler’s hands are shaking so hard the cameraman has to .. (see text below).
The Rooskies (who to have a chance of surviving know to distrust everything they read anywhere) elsewhere are trying to make heads or tails out of the bizarre missile detritus such as entire ICBM boosters falling from the sky and flattening a pedestrian. They wonder outloud if the entire nation of ……l has already been irradiated by whatever isotopic cocktail might be used for something like that.
/—————————
https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/63340
An interesting touch to Iran’s missile strike on Israel is Netanyahu’s shaking hands as he reads out his bravura statements. It’s so stormy that the cameraman zooms in to get his hands out of the frame.
NASA’s map of fire outbreaks has been corrected , but the nerves have been exposed.
The main result of the past 24 hours is the inability of the Iron Dome and other Israeli air defense systems to stop the massive missile attack.
F&L
I remember when Pope Jan Pavel II visited Poland. General Jaruzelski greeted him at the airport and he was shaking like a leaf as he read his welcoming statement standing in front of the Pope.
I’m sure Netanyahu is a bit apprehensive about this road he’s embarked on. He should be.
TTG,
“Netanyahu is a bit apprehensive”.
More like scare shitless, knowing the real damage from the Iran missiles attack, and knowing Israel AD complex cannot prevent the next wave to hit Israel infrastructure if he escalates again.
TTG: “There were no coordinated strikes from Hezbollah.”
Proven, without a doubt.
Likewise, no real coordination between Hezbollah and Hamas.
What does that tell us?
Another remark: Hezbollah and especially Hamas do not have anti-aircraft defense, while the domination of the Izzie air force is well known. It is even the only uncontested weapon of mass destruction for the Izzie armed forces.
Both have a wealth of rockets, missiles and drones of all kinds, all sol-sol, but nothing in Anti-Aircraft weapons. Why?
One can suspect that Iran, the major supplier, is also destitute of these weapons or that they do not want to distribute them. Why?
We remember the frantic search around the world for Stinger missiles after the US delivered them en masse to Afghanistan.
Lesson learned?
I see it as a reasonable choice by Iran. No amount of air defense systems Iran can provide would allow Hezbollah to keep Israeli air force at bay, Syrian army has failed to do so for years and are similarly equipped than Iranians (S-75 and S-125 derivatives). MANPADS are similarly useless as Israelis typically use standoff weapons (missiles and glide bombs) far beyond their range.
So don’t waste time and money supplying air defenses that will be taken out by Israelis in the first few hours of a conflict, focus on surface-to-surface missiles that can be hidden until the moment of launch and can engage Israelis in a war of attrition over weeks and months.
Thankk you,
You are probably right, however Izzies targets are not all mach 2 planes firing stand-off munitions or missiles far from the target. Choppers are pretty easy targets and especially surveillance drones. Some gazawis said that the 24/7 hum of multiple drones gave them the creeps.
Voislav –
The SAM systems Iran gave to Syria have been useless. So have the MANPADS.
They have a new fourth generation one, Sayyad-4, whose 1st generation predecessor was based on pre-1979 US-made RIM-66 Standard. No telling what improvement they’ve made to it over the past 45 years as it has not been exported. Iran described it as a competitor to the S-400, but then S-400s have not done well in the Ukraine War. And they claim it is capable of shooting down fifth-generation fighters. I suspect no way they could take down an F22 or F35 or even an F16, except by ambushing one in a SAM trap.
voislav,
The Iranians haven’t attrited anything.
F35s were in the air by the time the missiles came in. Other Israeli air assets were in reinforced bunkers (or hangers).
Attrition refers to Hezbollah’s ability to wage war on Israel. The winning strategy for Hamas and Hezbollah is to outlast Israel in a war of attrition, keep up daily missile/artillery attacks to disrupt Israeli military and economy, and force a ceasefire/peace due to Israeli war exhaustion.
Israel only has about 7 million Jewish citizens, so keeping 500K+ troops mobilized is very damaging to its economy. It also has low tolerance for casualties, losing 10-20K casualties (KIA/WIA) would have a strong psychological effect on Israeli’s. Hezbollah has much higher casualty tolerance and is not likely to be forced to accept peace on Israeli terms through attrition.
voislav,
Oh I see. The same stupid strategy that, according to various drunkards on the internet, Russia is supposedly using in Ukraine. The one that is about to get Putin removed because and that is causing the need to conscript even more young men (I imagine the prisons are empty by now). Attrition works both ways, but I’m glad that you agree that the Arabs are casualty adverse and it is probably necessary for Israel to lean towards a “kill them all and let Allah sort them out” approach. If current and future fighters are attrited, then the strategy is most certainly doomed, as it was anyhow because that is not how wars are won.
Dude, Israel isn’t going anywhere and it is not going to concede any strategic territory to its mortal enemies. I don’t understand why you guys can’t understand that fact. The only things that keeps the Arabs fighting is all the money their leaders get from the UN + the brainwashing the recipients do to the ignorant masses.
In WW2 far and away the largest number of aircraft destroyed were taken out on the ground, rather than shot out of the sky.
Greetings
In my neck of the internet woods, a couple of satellite images have appeared, showing the damage at Nevatim base.
With the permission of the host: https://flight.com.gr/israeli-nevatim-air-base-iranian-ballistic-missiles/
Granted, the published images just focus on one area of the base.
There is also a video by a, probably amateur, astronomer in Jordan that was lucky enough to capture the Iranian missiles as they flew over Amman headed for Israel. One can also see the interception attempts, probably by the Arrow system.
kakaouskia,
Thanks for that. That one photo released by IDF censors is a very narrow view of one section of the base. I think it was released in an effort to quiet the critics.
Agreed. That photo is located south south-east of the second runway. Note the open revetments and the un-reinforced roof of that hangar: it is obviously not the section of the air base that houses the F-35.
So a lot of missiles to blow up one building, create zero casualties, and not put the runways out of action.
No Fred, you running dog imperialist. You cannot believe your own lying eyes. Are you a Hasbara agent now?!?!?!?!
America is finished! The entire Western order is defeated! Israel will be free from the river to the sea!
No racist capitalist colonialist pigs can withstand the mighty Axis of Resistance. Russia is winning! Putin is playing 5D chess while the US plays checkers – and badly at that. Iran is supremely moral and awesome and so are its missiles! Israel killed its own people on Oct 7th with tanks and helos.
Get with the program, or there will be no place for you in the new utopian world order.
kakaouskia,
Interesting. Either a weak warhead, very strong structure or both. One would think that the mighty and much vaunted Iranian hypersonic missiles would do more damage to a rooftop.
The Iranians shoot blanks.
Yes most were decoys to attract counter measures but a few missiles were targeting the air bases.These were guided by radar in high rises in Beirut.Israel has just bombed those,plus the radar in Syria.
Once the radar is gone the Iranians will have a problem.The second wave was their last shot but the Israeli airforce is still active over Syria and Lebanon.Thats just my guess.
mcohen,
Why would they use radar in Beruit when they could just use GPS?
The demented dwarf in the Kremlin is pissed. His air defenses were not able to stop Israeli Navy land attack missiles from hitting warehouses at Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. He reportedly asked 1.5 million Russians in Israel to return home. Planning something maybe?
https://www.defensemirror.com/news/37819/Israel_Strikes_Near_Russian_Air_Base_in_Syria_Amid_Broader_Regional_Bombing_Campaign
The russian radar needs to be destroyed before Sunday.The Russian bases in Syria are now fair game after the last Iranian missile attack.It is pretty obvious by now where the Iranians are getting there targeting information
Greetings
Mcohen, if, as you wrote above, a belligerent party in a war has the right to attack anyone, anywhere as well as any means that provide targeting information to their opponent then that logic applies to assets and countries providing the same services to Ukraine, does it not?
I am afraid in a war it does not matter who is morally right or wrong; if one side claims “this is fair game”, they better be sure that either the other side is unable to do the same or they do not mind getting hit the same way.
I suspect the evolution of long range precision strikes to selective strikes to precision tactical strikes to (“strategic?”) very personal strikes (aka “decapitating leadership”) is now a realistic tool among military & state leaderships. this has obvious & not-so-obvious consequences.
– will leaderships seek alternatives to their magnified personal risk?
– will alternative conflict resolution gain in value?
– will leaderships invest even more in personal self-preservation? {living w/ Dr. Strangelove & the Morlocks rather than Eloi?}
– will unhinged leaders conflating personal w/ societal death rather than defeat rise to command national populist end-times movements?
I hope something good might come of it all.
TTG this is not encouraging. Putin is losing what little functioning capacity he once had for informed, rational thought. He is on his way to wreaking revenge on the whole world due to his traumatic childhood in devastated post war Leningrad. He wants to make sure everyone gets to feel and experience the devastion. Elsewhere – various of his SVO henchmen are being appointed governors of important areas in the Urals — the normal average Ivan & Natasha on Telegram think they’re preparing for Nuclear War.
————————
https://t.me/ejdailyru/270697
Vladimir Putin’s inner circle believes that Russia and Ukraine are currently “further than ever” from ending the military conflict.
Faridaily journalists were told about the mood in the Russian leadership by officials who regularly communicate with Putin, as well as sources familiar with the progress of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. According to the interlocutors, there are almost no supporters of peace talks left in the government. The “big demand” for peace disappeared after the Ukrainian Armed Forces invaded the Kursk region. Putin’s entourage, seeing his mood, does not believe in the possibility of negotiations. “It is difficult to even hint at peace, these voices will be suppressed,” said a Russian official “surrounded by sanctions.” Faridaily’s interlocutors also confirmed the Washington Post’s information about preparations for the first meeting of Russian and Ukrainian military since the beginning of the war in Qatar. The talks were scheduled for August 22-23. At them, the parties wanted to discuss mutual restrictions on attacks on energy infrastructure. Now Putin and the military leadership believe that these talks were a “curtain” for the operation in the Kursk region, one of Faridaily’s interlocutors claims. Permission to strike deep into Russian territory with Western weapons could further delay the talks, one Russian official believes. “It would be a major escalation, and it is quite possible,” he says.
E O
“It’s like a nightmare in which you foresee all the horrible things which are going to happen and can’t stretch out your hand to prevent them”
That is hilarious rocky horror show stuff.
A horror show, anyway, mcohen, though I doubt many outside the Golden Billion find it hilarious.
I have started wearing a sheet of lead as a codpiece to protect the crown jewels from cosmic rays.
After some investigation of moving parts I deduced that it was the rays themselves that have caused a marked curvature of said member.
Hopefully this will remedy the situation.
Just call me Leadick
On another note concerning curvature and rockets,I would speculate that we will see the use of missiles that follow the curve of space to then descend rapidly with high speed onto ……
A little refresher on Goebbels Five Principles of Propaganda:
– Avoid abstract ideas – appeal to the emotions.
– Constantly repeat just a few ideas. Use stereotyped phrases.
– Give only one side of the argument.
– Continuously criticize your opponents.
– Pick out one special “enemy” for special vilification.
So all of you who keep heaping scorn on Putin, just remember that the people feeding you propaganda have chosen Putin as “the one special enemy for special vilification”. You might want to keep that in mind next time you parrot something you read about what Putin is thinking. The same goes for Trump.
Trump fits all those aspects !
James,
It’s all biased BS on all sides. The problem is that each side can’t see it’s own BS for what it is. The irony is lost on them.
For example, here’s L. Johnson today, writing about Israel calling its incursion into Lebanon,”limited” – “Were it not for the fact that this escalation is going to lead to needless death and suffering, I would be amused by the term, “limited.” No such thing. That’s like saying, “I’m almost pregnant.” You either are or you are not. If I recall correctly, Vietnam started off as a “limited” military engagement. How did that work out?
Yet he praises Russia for its limited “special” military operation in Ukraine.
Indeed, how’s that working out?
What a tool
Eric Newhill,
Johnson should stop and look at the success record of his predictions for imminent Russian victory.
forget Putin. it was Roy Cohn who embraced Goebbels principles & instructed trump. he added “never admit error, nor apologize for anything”. perfect advice to a criminal psychopath on the make.
skip the intermediaries… cut to the chase. the Principles you outline are from chapter 6 of Mein Kampf.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_in_Nazi_Germany
Fyi — Thyssen and Krupp have resurrected but the names have been revised.
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-real-defense-commissioner-ursula-von-der-leyen-andrius-kubilius-armin-papperger-rheinmetall/
Imagery from Planet Labs seems to indicate at least 32 impact craters at Nevatim Airbase. But only one possible hit on an F-35 hardened shelter with not much visible damage. Other than that they destroyed an un-reinforced hangar, damaged a support building, and a couple of hits on the tarmac. Are Iran’s missiles that inaccurate? The Kheibar Shekan, one of the missiles used against Nevatim, reportedly has a CEP of 20 meters so there should have been more damage. Perhaps its maneuverability during descent gives it less accuracy. Could its high velocity while maneuvering constrain or frustrate its guidance system?
I have not seen any imagery from Tel Nof Airbase yet.
leith,
I saw that as well, here:
https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk
leith,
We have not seen the real damage to Nevatim airbase yet. And we will never get to see it. Looking at the videos, I have no doubt the damage was substantial. But some F-35s were probably in the air before the missiles hit. This was due to Iran’s decision to “advertise” the launch preparation to the world. The F-35s that were still in shelter would have been destroyed.
We should wait a few days and see how the Israelis conduct air campaigns again.
TonyL,
I hate to break your heart, but the Israelis are flying plenty of combat sorties today and bombing the beejeebus out of Hezbollah.
TonyL –
The Nevatim imagery from Planet Labs showed only a single shelter hit. Although it’s hard to determine what damage it sustained or whether there was an aircraft inside. Two near misses to other hard shelters. An un-reinforced hangar looks like it was destroyed. And there appears to be damage to two support buildings. Possibly two carters on taxiways. And lots of craters in desert areas in or near the base.
Source is an article on a blog about missiles by Decker Eveleth. Link is here: https://horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2024/10/04/imint-irans-strike-on-nevatim-airbase/
He has some interesting conclusions. It’s worth a read.
We don’t know yet about damage to Tel Nof Airbase. But that may be substantial as videos seemed to show secondary explosions. And there are some claims online that the IDF is using digital clouds to hide any damage there from satellites. Beats me how they could do that unless they’ve been given access to the imagery before it is released.
Possibly two “craters” on taxiways – NOT carters. My bad.
leith,
All US satellites images are subjected to censor like that. Now if Russia or China has a satellite above the region at the moment they would have damage assessment. But I’d doubt they will release any info, which is valuable in their strategic plan. I think Kazan BRICS summit will be quite interesting and might be the occasion of “show your cards on the table” moment for the major countries (Russia, China, Iran).
I think Netanyahu is scared shitless because by now he must have realized that he has put himself on the “back of the tiger”. Any move he’d make will be a looser.
TonyL –
And yet, no apparent censoring was done to the satellite images of Nevatim Airbase by Planet Labs.
What is the agenda at the BRICS summit this year? I did hear that the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, was going to be there as a guest.
leith,
Word is that Russia and Iran will sign some kind of defense pact at the Kazan BRICS summit. I think it’s likely. Netanyahu is trying to draw the US into a war with Iran before that, but I don’t think he will be successful.
Leith,
Not just that inaccurate but, apparently, pretty weak warheads. I’m not seeing big craters either, which seems odd given that these are supposed to scary be hypersonic monsters.
I know you’ve seen bomb damage and craters real time. What do you think? It all looks like wimpy scattershot big nothing burger to me, less than typical battlefield conventional stuff, the wishful thinking of our fellow correspondents that there is real damage being hidden, aside.
I mean if the missile(s) that hit the hardened structure that we can see in photos didn’t do serious damage, why would any other missiles, even if there are more hits, which there probably are not.
Eric –
Airfields are tough to take out. Not only because of Israel’s super-hardened shelters. Nevatim in particular has lot of empty desert area within the base where at least 25 or so missiles landed. And it’s hard to judge how big those craters are without knowing building dimensions or how wide the taxiways are.
But that does not mean Iran’s missiles are useless. The same 180 missiles hitting cities or army staging areas or a port would cause hundreds or thousands of casualties regardless of any inaccuracy. Or if they hit Dimona it would be a world catastrophy.
I know, it’s tiresome to repeat oneself…
But those Russian bastards are carrying on about Energodar’s NPP. They’ve booby-trapped the car of the site’s security manager. He’s dead, the car open like a tin can. As everyone knows, trapping a car in the parking lot while its owner is away is a traditional motus operandi of these Russian cowards.
How many Russian attacks does it take for a disaster to strike?
The West has bitten off more than it can chew in both theatres of war we’re currently engaged in. Looks as if both NATO and Israel have run out of road.
The Americans are low on kit and however much the Euros plead with them, they’ve about shot their bolt in Ukraine. In the other theatre, when it comes to ground operations the Israelis aren’t up to much and, again, doesn’t look as if the Americans are coming in in force to save their bacon there either.
On that last there’s a video showing the fighting quality of the IDF.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPE6vbKix6A&ab_channel=AlJazeeraEnglish
So much for the martial prowess of the IDF. Not what you’d call real soldiers. Thought as much when I read the Colonel’s assessment of them way back.
So a dead loss all round, these two wars. And neither the Russians nor the Iranians are prepared to roll with the punches any more. Nor Hezbollah, by the looks of it. There’s now a multiplicity of sources showing we’ve been given all the rope we’re going to get.
I could be wrong and it could all be bluff but even the impeccably diplomatic Lavrov is now saying to us “You feeling lucky, punk.” Similar robust talk from Iran. It’ll upset the armchair warriors of the West no end, but time to pack it in.
English Outsider,
Thanks for the link. Looks very very good. (6:21 Eastern Time)
Now it’s 6:28 ETime and I switched to a Samsung TV. BLOCKED
Blocked on TVs but viewable on iphones. That’s par for the course here and it doesn’t count all the many blocked everywhere. Nonetheless thanks again.
F&L – most of the links I kept of events in the Donbass from 2014 on no longer work. Just the passage of time as people fail to keep sites up. That’s a pity because particularly with the videos, reports made on the spot of this or that event and put out immediately serve as a more authentic record than when there’s been time to edit or fake them.
With Western sources, sometimes the site’s still going but access is blocked. More recently, authoritative pre-2022 Western reports on the activities of the Ukrainian ultra-nationalists are no longer available.
Plenty left. More than enough. When an event’s big enough, as in the case of that video I submitted a link to, it’s unlikely all trace will be lost. After all, we don’t need contemporaneous films of the bombing of Hamburg, or of what happened on the Eastern Front, to know what happened there.
In the case of the recent Israeli atrocities the Israelis convicted themselves out of their own mouths in any case. That wasn’t and isn’t how a professional army pursues military objectives. We’re in anything goes territory.
Leith,
Thanks for the “google harder” because actually pointing to something to disprove the lack of 101 and 82 rotary wing aircraft would be hard as they aren’t in action.
“Guard and Reserve forces from 16 states are involved in the response to the hurricane, which has killed at least 191 individuals in six states. More than 40 rotary wing aircraft and 600 military vehicles are assisting local emergency personnel with their work.”
So national guard from 16 states. Still not 101 or 82nd, which are federal service not national guard. Party loyalty though. Thanks.
https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-military/2024/10/03/more-troops-could-be-mobilized-to-help-with-hurricane-helene-relief/
Fred –
Whose CH-47s are those delivering supplies to stranded communities in Western Carolina’s mountains? What, you think they are all NG?
https://x.com/VirtuallyNo1/status/1842706230831358205/photo/1
https://x.com/USArmyNorth/status/1842297475803001295
And here’s another you missed:
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-army/2024/10/02/fort-liberty-soldiers-deploying-to-help-with-hurricane-helene-relief/
Maybe you should put your high-water boots on, go help your elderly neighbors. And stop drinking that rotgut Trump whisky, buy some good American bourbon.
Leith,
like the article said 40 rotary wing aircraft.
My neighbors – right here:
https://www.bradenton.com/news/weather/hurricane/article293374509.html
Feel free to come help. The damage along the coastline anywhere from Venice to the panhandle. Or pick another state.
Joe Biden is the President, Kamala is the VP, and their leadership in this is still terrible.
Fred –
40 birds and 1000 troops. As far as I know the 82nd only has one company of Chinooks, so 40 is either all they have available or is stretching them very thin.
Sorry that they’re all busy helping out in the flooded areas of the NC mountains and not down where you are. Although I understand US Navy Chinooks are also helping out.
But why would you build on a sand spit? Didn’t the bible warn us about that? Some parable about wise and foolish builders? Get yourself inland on higher ground so you don’t have to depend on us hardworking taxpayers to bail out Florida every time a hurricane hits.
By the way, at least two Republican governors, several Republican state and federal representatives, and the Republican mayor of Asheville NC have all said that federal aid has been amazing; and that stories circulating on the internet to the contrary are BS. My bet is that some of those stories were cooked up 5677 miles from Florida’s Gulf Coast.
Fred –
Looks like Hurricane Milton is headed straight to your neck of the woods. Stay safe.