The Israelis have launched airstrikes on Teheran overnight. So far, the biggest strikes have been informational. Images and videos of a refinery fire in Teheran from last year and other footage of recent strikes in Beirut are being passed off as successful strikes on Teheran. So far the BBC reporting is far less hysterical.
This attack has been anticipated since Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles on Israel almost a month ago. In a statement announcing that the operation was under way, the Israeli military spokesman said Israel had the “right and duty” to respond and that its defensive and offensive capabilities were fully mobilised.
Iranian state media has confirmed that explosions have been heard in the west of Tehran. A news agency close to the Revolutionary Guards says that some military bases in the west and south west of the Iranian capital have been targeted. The extent of the attacks and the precise targets are not yet clear.
The Syrian state news agency says that Israeli airstrikes have also targeted some military sites in central and southern areas of Syria.
The office of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has released a picture of him in the operations centre of the military headquarters during the attack.
The Middle East Spectator is also somewhat subdued about the attack
Here’s what we know so far about the unfolding situation near Tehran: 1. Israeli Air Force jets are active in sky above Syria — Syrian air defenses near Damascus as active. 2. Planes en-route to Imam Khomeini Intl. Airport were diverted from landing. 3. Fake images of explosions are circulating the internet & social media platforms. 4. Confirmed visuals from south-west of Tehran show small fires & plumes of smoke, indicating possible projectile that downed, or possible small-scale attack with quadcopters – but no actual ‘airstrikes’ as of yet.
I would think Russia would have upgraded the air defenses in Iran recently. Perhaps they’re even manning some of these air defense sites, maybe even Syrian sites as well. How effective that would be is an open question. They can’t stop drone strikes across Russia, but dealing with more conventional aircraft and missile attacks might be something more up their alley.
We’ll know more in a day or two.
TTG
Wait and see.
We don’t know much. The response seems really anaemic. It’s a long way from Galland’s promises. Perhaps this is just the beginning. Are the Izzies thinking of subjecting Iran to a blitz lasting a few weeks?
Or, in a rare display of cleverness, the Izzies will leave it at that. I hope so.
That Israel can fly airplanes over Iran without issue might help the Iranian people to gather the courage to overthrow their vile islamic government.
You forgot to add that without US support they would not have been able to do what they are doing.
Gordon Redd,
I didn’t forget. It’s implied. I’m glad that someone in the Biden admin has some sense. This is a great example of why the US and Israel need to be allies. Great cooperation to rid the world of an evil cesspool.
“That Israel can fly airplanes over Iran”
The reports I’ve read said the IDF launched standoffish munitions from the safety of Jordanian and Iraqi airspace.
Who cares about truth, give me more of that dope people say
TTG, your comment about drones is right on. I’m no military expert but to this tin can veteran, it seems drones have revolutionized the battlefield.
TTG – maybe background’s out of place at this urgent time but I was spellbound by some remarks by Crooke – to such an extent that I’ve neglected pressing work and listened to it through.
The first section of the interview is about the recent missile strike. It was just about to start at the time of the interview. “Wait and see”, as d74 says about that above, though I did initially click on the video to find out about that strike.
What I did get was an examination of the way we in the West think, or many of us and those many sometimes running the country or our military, and the way others think. Crooke, a man deeply familiar with that “other side of the fence” branches out from there to an incisive enquiry into how that thinking leads us into the foreign policy errors that we are, in my view at least, so disastrously pursuing. Set to around 24 mins:-
https://youtu.be/dgPYM6OObt4?t=1456
Crooke’s been around. MI6 for two or three decades and knows the ME from a variety of angles. Also been involved in some hair-raising exploits over there. So not an ivory tower recluse.
A couple of references took me back to my own boyhood. I’d been sent over to a farm a way away to help with the harvest. There was an Iranian boy there and the men didn’t want to take their break in his company. So off he went to have his lunch by himself. I went with him out of solidarity and we ate just the two of us together.
Don’t know what an Iranian boy was doing sitting on a hay bale in that remote English farm in what was then deep country. Maybe an exchange student, or sent over to an English school as happened sometimes. However he got there he wasn’t happy at being excluded. There he was, from a civilisation old before ours had scarcely started, looked down on because he wasn’t “one of us”. That same parochial attitude I still find in our current men in suits and often enough in men in uniform. We got away with that de haut en bas attitude when the West was immeasurably superior both in technology and in military power. As present events prove all too clearly, we’re not going to get away with it much longer.
Russian Outsider,
Still on the “west has been defeated meme” I see.
Do listen to the Crooke interview, Eric. He really does know his stuff. I did consider footnoting the whole thing, right back to the time of Brzezinski and before. But it would take an age to do and long suffering though TTG is, he’d probably baulk at my taking up several yards of his comment section.
Anyway, do listen to it. It’s not that long. If you find anything inaccurate or incorrectly stated in it, maybe let me know.
Mr. Newhill like Pres Trump says ” we will be winning and winning and we will get tired of winning” May be that time has come with BRICS GDP greater than G7. Sure you can claim to be rich the question is how long will your riches last? I remember my childhood days of Nawab’s Palatial residences now turned into Cando, when you stop working and fleecing off people (I think they call it Usury) something got to give. True the West and US were great powers when they were industrial power houses but since finance took over our economies are a house of cards.
Muralidhar Rao,
You will be surprised at how fast the US regains its economic status. The People are sick and tired of the leftist/democrat/media autocrats and their insanity; from gentile amputees (trans) to third world invasion to slave labor producing our goods (whether Charleroi or China). Americans will be educated to do the good paying tech jobs that all of the H1Bs from India are currently enjoying in the US. Energy policy will make economic sense. We’re ready to go. Trump is going to win and win big. After him will come Vance. 12 years of pro-America policy – and, hopefully, a cleansing of Washington DC with something like project 2025 + deportations – and the US will tower above dictatorship boneheads like Russia and China and the other backwards, tin horn, members of BRICS .
Actually, the economic status of the US is just fine. Eight years ago we had a Trump acolyte here and he made some predictions and none of them survived reality. The problem China and others like them is that in top down systems there is a ceiling and when reached, no more progress is available. This has been proved many times, including in my native Sweden in the 1970,’s. It is like sales. If you want to increase it, you have to widen the prospective funnel. Not diminish it. China is at a crossroads and so far what they are doing is unproductive. BRIC is not a very solid arrangement either and can easily come apart as each member has to adjust to the environment. Some will do so better than others.
Mr. Newhill as the saying goes hope is not a strategy. Please allow me to explain, our educational system is a disaster. I have personal experience with this situation, students are not interested in learning math and science. I used to offer free tutorial classes and there were no takers. Since I come from India the difference is between day and night. With such an apethetic population how do you think we can regain our preeminence in manufacturing. Allow me to give you another example I used to work in electronic field, there was a constant break down of some imported Japanese automatic machines. Do you know the solution the big shots came up with? It is to disable the automatic system and make it manual. I was knew to that place and type of production later on I learnt from my own self investigation that the problem was some junk was getting on the back side of part and the auto system recognizing the uneven surface rejected the piece. With that type of mentality, at the directors level (those guys were Phd’s some American and some Indian etc) how can we compete in the market place. Now let us look at our present day reality. We have $35T debt and the debt service exceeds that of the bloated defense budget. I too like Trump but I have no idea how he can solve this problem of debt and incompetence in higher levels of our society. His previous track record doesn’t give me much confidence. I am afraid we are facing a COME TO JESUS crisis. I pray and hope we don’t have that situation but God only knows.
Muralidhar Rao,
Leadership goes beyond nuts and bolts policy solution. Increasing morale is a big part of it. Today’s students have been made lazy and stupid by liberal philosophy; two or three generations of it.
The national debt can be conquered by decreasing the massive waste in government along with, frankly, idiotic useless programs, increasing tariffs and rebuilding US manufacturing. Trump has articulated his plan. I agree with it. We can cut $2 trillion/yr from govt spending and add $2 trillion/yr once America is producing again at max capacity. That’s a net gain of $4 trillion/yr. Within 10 years of fiscal discipline and investment in America first, the debt will be in control. That’s a gross oversimplification, but represents the gist of the path forward.
People that dread project 2025 type approaches are the dolts in govt that caused the problem. They think money grows on trees. Even Pat Lang had an institutionalized mentality in that regard. He would always insist that a business approach doesn’t make sense in govt because govt is all cost centers and not profit centers; a non-argument defeatist dismissal to my mind. While profit center is not appropriate, the concept is. Make it a “value center”. Instead of profit, show what value was added for the US. The value has to be tangible. It would be calculated by independent auditors. The value to buck ratio would have to be above a center level and that level would have to be set pretty high. Most govt spending, today, would fail the assessment. People in govt, whether elected or appointed, have no appreciation for the value of money. They live off other people’s taxes and are unaccountable, practically speaking. That is another problem with the education system too.
Trump was remarkably successful with the starting the above in his first term, but was hindered to some extent by the media/govt complex that wants to remain corrupt and unaccountable. This time around, the media is weaker than ever. Only a decreasing group of fools pays attention to the MSM other than to laugh at them. Trump and his team – Musk, RFK Jr, Gabard, Vance et al are going to purge the federal government. Trump has stated that his mistake was to trust anyone in DC. He is going in eyes wide open this time.
The War Zone blog has a write-up on the strikes. ~100 aircraft participated in three waves. A percentage of those a/c were probably air-to-air fighters protecting the strike birds. First wave probably was meant to take out some air defense SAM sites.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/israels-retaliation-strikes-on-iran-have-begun
IDF statement: “Based on intelligence, IAF aircraft struck missile manufacturing facilities used to produce the missiles that Iran fired at the State of Israel over the last year. These missiles posed a direct and immediate threat to the citizens of the State of Israel. Simultaneously, the IDF struck surface-to-air missile arrays and additional Iranian aerial capabilities, that were intended to restrict Israel’s aerial freedom of operation in Iran.”
Some twitter sites are also saying missile manufacturing facilities were hit. A rocket motor plant just southwest of Tehran is one example given:
https://x.com/fab_hinz/status/1850171149058994436
That rocket motor plant is just southeast of Tehran NOT southwest. Apologies!
The site that was hit to the southwest of Tehran was a drone factory:
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1850089499398730108
No sign of fire. No sign of an explosion.
If that was an IDF missile then it had a very small warhead. You sure the missile didn’t just, you know, flop on top of the roof?
YR,
Are you sure you are not describing one of your failed romantic encounters?
No, Eric, I am quite certain I am describing what can be seen in that X link that leith so kindly provided.
No sign of fire.
No sign of an explosion.
Just a roof caved in, without any sign of scorching of that roof, and no sign that the roof was blown out by an explosion, nor collapsed due to a fire.
Eyes, Eric. You have two of ’em, so use ’em.
YR,
There is no way to do a damage assessment from that material on X.
Funny how you are sure that Iran’s missiles did tremendous damage to Israeli airbases based on nothing but a gut feeling and picture of a hanger that appeared to have a missile merely “flop on the roof” and crack the concrete a little, but then you convince yourself that Israeli airstrikes on Iran were a failure based on an X post of a building that looks pretty well destroyed.
Using one’s eyes indeed.
TTG,
As far as I can tell, the Israeli strike was a successful *shaping* operation. Iran’s AD has been severely reduced. It is now Iran’s move. What do they want to do w/o AD to protect them?
One bay of the building is completely destroyed. There is a firefighter crew on hand there and you can still see some smoke. Or is that a dust cloud from a collapsed wall? 12 or more hours after the attack I would not expect to see an explosion or flames.
Here are additional pics from another source that shows the explosion itself.
https://x.com/mpandey03/status/1850096186155549058
Thanks, Leith.
That is more than a missile “flopping on the roof”. The Israelis don’t miss. That should be clear by now to all rational people.
I guess for some among us, antisocial fantasies about the “axis of resistance” causing the destruction of western civ are just to delicious to readily relinquish in the face of reality.
Eric Newhill,
AP published a report of damage at several locations in Iran. Some buildings are definitely destroyed and damaged, but for 100 plus sorties, the damage seems limited. That could have been the plan. I doubt either side wants an all out war at this point. It all has an air of two siblings in the back seat of the car trying to see who touches who last. It could go back and forth for quite a while longer.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-attack-satellite-photos-gaza-lebanon-wars-0c6ee6a8544268612cb7d49727d8449d
They took out more than just the Parchin and Khojir missile production sites that the AP suggests. They also took out all of Iran’s four S-300 SAM batteries and associated radars. They took out at least one Hawk SAM site. No word yet on Iran’s Bavar-373 SAMs, but it would be surprising if some of those were not also attacked. And they took out the drone plant in Shamsabad.
A huge percentage of those 100 a/c were flying in support and were not strike birds. Some were tankers, some electronic warfare, one or two AEWC, and many flying CAP carrying nothing but air-t0-air missiles. The strike a/c carrying those huge air-launched-ballistic-missile were defenseless until after launch. So were the tankers, EW and AEWC birds. Some of the 100 a/c were used in attacking radar sites in Syria. Some CAP fighters were used there also.
Thanks again, Leith. That is what I expected.
Israel continuous to demonstrate operational capabilities and general excellence; vastly superior to her enemies.
Eric Newhill,
This seems like a fairly complete account of the entire attack and the results.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/iranian-israeli-soap-opera-episode-89d
“12 or more hours after the attack I would not expect to see an explosion or flames.”
Non-sequitur.
The roof itself shows no sign of fire damage, nor is there any sign of the roof being blown outwards by an explosion.
If it was a missile warhead that did that damage then it was exceptionally small.
Now, so sorry, that is what your photos demonstrate.
As for the “explosion itself”, that is several weeks old and comes from Lebanon.
TTG: “This seems like a fairly complete account of the entire attack and the results.”
Thanks, TTG. I’m pleased that it supports many of the points that I have made and which appear to have set Eric’s hair on fire:
1) IDF warplanes didn’t intrude into Iranian airspace.
2) The IDF warplanes that did fire stand-off missiles from inside Jordanian/Iraqi/etc airspace were F-15i rather than F-35
3) Israeli intel led them to target a number of decoy installations.
4) The photos of big explosions and fireballs are bogus, being sourced from Other Places that Israel have bombed.
Basically, a big ho-ha over nothing much.
Yeah, Right,
Israeli warplanes don’t need to enter Iranian airspace. That’s a good thing. That the F-14s can carry those big standoff missiles are also a good thing. That Israeli intelligence didn’t discover decoys is a failure. That’s a lot of effort expended to hit decoys. The big explosions and fireballs were known to be bogus almost as soon as they were posted.
The losses of AD systems, whatever they are, can be made up by Russia if they desire to do so. We also don’t know the extent of damage to the drone and missile manufacturing facilities, but I doubt they were destroyed.
YR –
F-35s did penetrate Iranian airspace. Quite an accomplishment as none were taken down by Iranian air defense. The Izzies used electronic warfare to spoof Iran’s radars as well as the F-35s having some stealth characteristics.
https://x.com/vcdgf555/status/1850615229966913833
lieth, nothing in your link mentions F-35.
TTG, I assume you mean F-15i, not F-14.
The requirement to use stand-off missiles has a number of downsides:
1) Warheads are MUCH smaller on stand-off weapons
2) The missiles themselves aren’t stealthy, so they can be targeted and engaged.
3) Spoofing, jamming, and other EW defenses have more time to do their work.
The lack of large explosions on the ground suggest very much that the Israelis spent considerable effort to blow up empty buildings, though that is possibly quite deliberate on their part.
The claim that Iranian AA was largely destroyed is completely unsupported, and the “evidence” I’ve seen so far is – honestly – amateur rubbish.
There is a claim that a Hawk battery was taken out, which would be no great loss even if true.
Claims that all their S-300 batteries were taken out is just a hollow boast at this point in time.
Like you I doubt very much that “drone and missile manufacturing facilities” were destroyed.
I suspect that, again, a lot of empty buildings were hit because, well, they are above ground and so the Israelis could actually target them.
On a side note, the building that lieth keeps sending X posts about has been identified: it belongs to these guys
https://tieco.ir/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/Tieco-Profile-2021-Nov-EN.pdf
They are a heavy manufacturing company specializing in the oil industry. Purely commercial stuff, nothing to do with anything military-related.
Gonna say it again: that damage came from something (e.g. a spent AA missile) flopping down on top of it.
Yeah, Right,
The best assessment I’ve seen was by the Ayatollah
“Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned the Israeli strike Sunday while claiming the attack was neither as grand as the Jewish state claimed nor as insignificant as state media were attempting to make it seem.”
And he added that there will be retaliation.
And you’re right. I meant F-15i, not F-14.
TTG,
One guy’s opinion.
Probably an antisemite and/or someone who believes what Iran says.
As Leith points out, there are sources saying something quite different.
Eric: “One guy’s opinion.”
Irony is a word that is missing from your vocabulary, is it?
Eric: “Probably an antisemite”
Tell me, when did you stop beating your wife, Eric?
Eric: “and/or someone who believes what Iran says.”
As does TTG, according to his last post.
So, no, not just one man’s opinion.
TTG: “The best assessment I’ve seen was by the Ayatollah”
His statement is a masterclass in keeping your options open.
Yeah, it was big enough to justify a retaliation.
No, it wasn’t all that big.
Yeah, I can strike back and, no, I don’t need to strike back.
Exactly what you would expect a national leader to say.
In terms of statements, I rather like this headline from unz.com:
“Iran Says They’ll Respond to Israel’s Failed Attack But Doesn’t Know What the Response Is to Such a Shitty Attack”
Quite the conundrum, that….
Yeah, Right,
The Ayatollah didn’t consider it a shitty attack. If it was a demonstrably failure, Iran wouldn’t have to consider a retaliatory attack. They would just gloat in their defensive victory.
@YR: “As for the “explosion itself”, that is several weeks old and comes from Lebanon.”
What photo search app did you use?
I did a photo search on that image and it does not show any likenesses from an attack on Lebanon.
There is a single claim by IRNA, the mouthpiece of Iran’s government, that the photo is from a Tehran refinery explosion three years. Perhaps? But IRNA has been cited many times for publishing BS. It is a sub-organization of the Iranian president’s office. Plus I checked every image I could find on that refinery explosion in 2021 and none match.
TTG, many thanks for you passing on your thoughts following your all-night binge-drinking session with the Supreme Leader of Iran.
Who knew he’d be such a stream-of-consciousness once he gets a few drinks into him.
I certainly didn’t, which is why I shared my opinion that his public utterances were a master-class in keeping his options open.
Did he get into the nuances of how interconnected alliances and keeping faith with previous undertakings might constrain any live-and-let-live forgiveness of Israel’s blatant attack on Iranian soil, or had he become unconscious before it got to that point.
Probably the latter, because I suspect he isn’t match-fit in the beer-sculling stakes.
Still, I’m sure he views the task of ruling a country of 80 million people through the same simplistic lens that so many on this site do.
You’d make a great Ayatollah, TTG.
YR –
That TIECO plant that was hit also designs, develops and manufactures specialized mixers for high-viscosity material. Sounds perfect for solid propellant mixers for Iran’s ballistic missiles. They also make industrial-level vacuum dryers which would be critical for working with solid propellants.
YR –
Apparently per your link, TIECO also does design and development for centrifuges. Hmmmm, what have I heard here before about centrifuges for Iran?
leith: “Sounds perfect for solid propellant mixers for Iran’s ballistic missiles.”
Perhaps you need to talk to the Israelis about that, because they are quite insistent that the attack was An Outstanding Success!!!! precisely because the “planetary mixers” that were “destroyed” are absolutely, positively irreplaceable. No way, no how, can the Iranians build that for themselves.
Apparently not. The Israelis appear to be telling some fibs.
Apparently the Ayatollah need only go to a heavy-engineering concern in Iran (I’m quite certain there is more than one) and ask them to knock up a few replacements for him.
Thump, thump, grind, whirl, here ya’ go your Supremeness, a new planetary-mixer.
That’s pretty much what you are trying on here, isn’t it, leith?
leith: “Hmmmm, what have I heard here before about centrifuges for Iran?”
Well, for one thing they are very heavily used in the oil industry, if that’s what you are asking about.
leith:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMdV_8I0fow&t=2s
The IDF attempted to pass off photos from Beirut and an oil refinery fire in Iran dated 2021.
YR –
Of course they did. News organizations use old photos all the time when they don’t have up to date coverage. The Times of India has done that in the past as well.
But none of those photos shown in that video come anywhere close to matching the photo of the explosion at the Shamsabad factory posted by Doctor Manoj Pandey on twitter (mpandeyo3) six days ago.
I don’t know what the ratio of Israel’s competence is versus Iran’s incompetence, but it is noticeable. Iran’s leadership should also pay attention to Israel’s ability to bury enemy leaders in rubble, which they seem to have gotten good at.
Yes, Iran fires 200 missiles and destroys nothing. Israel penetrates Iranian airspace with aircraft, losing none, and destroys high value targets. I’d say the competency to incompetency ratio is obvious. Allah does not favor Iran
So far, it looks like this attack on Iran was generally proportional and symmetrical to Iran’s recent missile attack on Israel. IMO, that’s a Good Thing – it implies that (1) Israel doesn’t want a full-out war with Iran (yet?) and/or (2) US/Biden were able to get Israel/Bibi to minimize civilian casualties.
OTOH, attacks on “missile production sites” could well have included factories in heavily populated areas, so there could be a lot more civilian casualties than we’re hearing about so far.
elkern,
” it implies that (1) Israel doesn’t want a full-out war with Iran (yet?) and/or (2) US/Biden were able to get Israel/Bibi to minimize civilian casualties.”
I think it’s both. And in addition, Israel now know what Iran can do with its missiles. In an all out war, Iran will suffer great damage and will recover, but Israel will cease to exist as a nation as we know it.
But Israel as we knew it, or thought we knew it, has already ceased to exist. Whatever comes of it now, it won’t be that.
Mearsheimer. Prophetic. Set to around four minutes and runs another four. A brief survey of the economic and military pressures on the country. Then unsparing condemnation of those who enabled and supported the atrocities.
https://youtu.be/RmSqUu9onGc?t=242
Elkern –
Reportedly they also hit a site in or near the holy city of Qom. If that turns out to be true and there are destroyed mosques or the many shrines and tombs (including Khomeini’s) then things will get ugly fast. Hopefully the Israeli Air Force has better sense.
https://x.com/MohamadAhwaze/status/1849956347887927566
https://x.com/metesohtaoglu/status/1849957773041135832
By the way, another reference to Golden Horizon ALBM. It’s booster fell in Iraq. But again there’s no performance data.
https://x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1850166027608289687
If they used ALBM then I don’t quite see why the Israelis would use F-35 aircraft instead of F-15.
They won’t be stealthy with such things slung under the wings, and without stealth then the F-35 really doesn’t bring anything to the table compared to the F-15
Secret confab agrees Iran shall attack with 6.7 ballistic missiles to keep right and wrong in balance. Defers true-up to next exchange.
Has the IDF equipment change significantly since Pat Lang last pointed out the lack of airlift capacity in their air force to do anything of significance against Iran?
Fred,
As far as I know, the Izzies fly F-16s, F-15s and now F-35s, but they still only have some old Boeing 707 tankers and KC-130 tankers. I don’t know if they received any of the new KC-46 Pegasus tankers that they have on order.
TTG,
All the usual suspects have been hooting for a few years that the F-35 doesn’t work, overpriced piece of junk, classic example of US waste and sloth.
Aerial envy?
Why would Israel be using it if it’s so bad?
Eric Newhill,
Like any new design, it went through its growing pains. It’s as expensive as hell, but i wouldn’t trade it for anything else I’ve seen.
Eric: “Why would Israel be using it if it’s so bad?”
Answer: Because they don’t have to pay for it.
YR,
Israel recently signed a deal to pay $3 Billion for more F-35s.
Also, if the aircraft was no good, Israel wouldn’t risk the mission by using it.
You get a 2 out of 10 on your attempt to apply an ugly stereotype
Eric: “Israel recently signed a deal to pay $3 Billion for more F-35s.”
They “pay” for it using a gift-voucher provided by Uncle Sugar.
As in: Gallant signs the contract with Lockheed Martin, then Netanyahu sends the invoice to Joe Biden with a note that reads “Pay this”.
It isn’t Israel’s money that is being spent on those planes, Eric, it is your money.
This is news to you, is it?
Are you also unaware that Israel is unique amongst the recipients of US military aid funding in that it is entitled to skim 20% off the top?
That’s not a “stereotype”, it is “unprecedented”.
Moral analysis by Mosad determines Israelis purely righteous until 2047 because of Hitler. After that, Ottoman-based righteousness subject to discount.
Mossad study shows declining Israel intelligence outpaced by internet-induced IQ declines in the rest of the world.
Israel government expresses concern that fatter Shiksas are reducing Israeli libido. Request US improve physical fitness.
What Has Israel Achieved In The Last Year?
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/10/what-has-israel-achieved-in-the-last-year-by-arch-bungle.html#more
Despite Iran’s obvious censorship, some videos are beginning to emerge.
In particular, a video from Turkey shows a veritable hecatomb of Izzie missiles, probably tangled in decoys, over Tehran. All are intercepted and there is no explosion on the ground.
If this is not a set-up, which is always possible, it should be a disappointment for the Izzies. The few satellite photos that are supposed to show before and after the bombing are not really convincing. From the experience of the Houtis and the Hezbollahs we know that it takes a lot more to declare a facility buried in bedrock destroyed.
The Izzies risked men and their precious air force for this bombardment. (To tell the truth, there was no danger from the Jordanian and Iraqi ADs). Whereas Iran fires its weapons from a safe distance from mobile forces.
Here the Izzies find their limit.
d74: “The few satellite photos that are supposed to show before and after the bombing are not really convincing. ”
Here is an object lesson in not taking “experts” as authoritative:
https://www.voanews.com/a/satellite-photos-suggest-iran-air-defense-radar-struck-during-apparent-israeli-attack/7580372.html
The “analysts including Chris Bigger” insist that “burn marks” surrounding the radar unit in the center of that S-300 complex shows that the Israelis destroyed that radar.
Leaving aside the obvious problem that the radar unit is still there in the satellite photo post-destruction, there is the greater problem that this same article shows a wide-shot of that same S-300 complex dated April 22, 2024.
There’s that radar truck, same as ever, and there’s that “burn mark”, plain as day.
Helllllloooooooooooooooo
If that “burn mark” was present in satellite photos from April 22 then it could not have been the result of an IDF missile strike from three days ago.
So VOA is deceiving us?
I would never have believed it!
But I have an explanation: the Russians don’t know how to make clean diesel engines. What’s more, the few Iranian refineries are not up to scratch. Conclusion: it smokes a lot.
Remember the ex-Soviet aircraft carrier? It smoked so much that you could follow it on satellite photos. Some suggested it was fuelled by coal. Fortunately it was accompanied by its tug…
What you see around the radar are the unburnt heavy particles.
Fuelled by some vile stuff called “Mazut”. Bunker B or Bunker C. High sulphur content. Old ship. No scrubbers, no pre-heaters. Our journalists seized upon the resultant cloud of black smoke. All very amusing as it laboured, tug in attendance, through the English Channel.
The planes came in handy though not for us. The Russians used them to attack our Jihadis. Very unsporting. We’d put a whole lot of money and effort into those Jihadis.
There was bad blood between the Russians and us as a result of them spoiling our plans for Syria. That has carried over into subsequent conflicts.
I believe the Russians also wanted the Admiral Kuznetsov off Syria as a missile ship. It had been sent there on the direct orders of President Putin. Google states it carried 24 × 8-cell 3K95 Kinzhal SAM VLS. Not so amusing.
.
Those 192 Kinzhal SAMs on the Admiral K are 35-year old technology, and have a sketchy radio-command guidance system. It’s the naval version of the Tor, short range, low-to-medium altitude, used only for point defense.
Leith – yes. Lethal old tub by the sound of it.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/admiral-kuznetsov-russias-last-aircraft-carrier-was-crazy-missile-farm-208340
I think there was also a sub knocking around. A few other bits and pieces:-
https://www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/security-insights/russias-naval-strategy-mediterranean-0
The whole deployment, really, partly a way of saying to the neocons, “We’re here too.”
Maybe that’s what the American people will say to the neocons as well, next election. “We’re here too. Run the country for us and not for the swamp, if you please.”
Not holding my breath, but it’d be nice if the Americans did say that to the Washington neocons. Who knows, the message might even get through to the European neocons! Though I’m certainly not holding my breath on that.
EO –
Lethal for the crew perhaps.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/09/22/the-kremlin-pulled-sailors-off-the-decrepit-aircraft-carrier-admiral-kuznetsov-and-sent-them-to-fight-and-die-in-ukraine/
TTG,
Thank you for https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/iranian-israeli-soap-opera-episode-89d
If only everything that happens in the area could be noted as the Xth performance of a Soap-Opera….
They know we know it’s a tit for tat gallery show. Obviously the Izzies are becoming cleaver, that’s my hope. Let’s hope it lasts
In all seriousness, pinprick attacks enable the target to strengthen itself. However bad it might be, Iran 1, Israel 0.
No one is talking about how the IAF got to Iran.
Whose airspace was used?
How and where did they refuel?
Jordan and Iraq airspace, predominantly.
There is also some suggestion of Syrian airspace being used, but that’s less likely.
As for refueling, the IDF has some converted Boeing 707, but I would wager that news will eventually trickle out that USAF tankers were involved.
Yeah, Right,
I read they avoided Jordanian airspace this time and stuck to Syrian and Iraqi airspace after first clearing out some of the Syrian AD systems and maybe some Iraqi early warning. They did their refueling and missile launches from Iraqi airspace.
YR –
IAF has 14 tankers both 707s and C130s. Not all 100 a/c would need refueling, just the deep strike birds. The a/c that hit Syria and Lebanon targets would not need any refueling. The a/c that were in Iraq may or may not have needed refueling depending on their route. IAF F-15s, F-16s have been known to use external fuel tanks; and they probably have that capability for their F-35I also.
Why would the Israelis go via Syrian airspace when Jordan and Iraq are amenable to the silken-voiced charm of Antony Blinken?
Honestly, just think for a moment at the absurdity of the stuff that you have been reading.
Look up where The RockStar went after having his last fireside chat with Bibi. I guarantee you it wasn’t to Syria.
Care to guess where?
Yeah, Right,
Jordan has become far more vocal about Israeli actions in Gaza recently. The cordial relationship between the two is badly strained.
OK, you appear to be implying that Jordan’s “far more vocal stance” is such that Netanyahu said “oh, crap, better go through Syria instead”.
You do understand that Israel’s relationship with Syria goes way, way, way beyond any reasonable definition of “strained”?
The IDF could go through Jordan, and risk a stern talking-to from the Plucky Little King, or it could go through Syria and have to take kinetic action to avoid being shot at.
Which to choose?
Which to choose?
It is a conundrum, isn’t it?
Or is it a no-brainer: go through Jordanian airspace, and then put out stories that you didn’t.
Ahem:
https://twitter.com/thenewsindex/status/1850052091449876684
Evidence, apparently.
Yeah, Right,
Israel doesn’t need any more enemies in the region than what she already has. Suppressing Syrian air defense was probably all that difficult at this stage. Iraq doesn’t have much yet.
Both Syrian and Iraqi targets were hit and the missiles entered Iran from Iraqi airspace.
Did you actually look at the link I provided, TTG, or did you simply assume that because I said the IDF used Jordanian airspace then that must be incorrect?
Because that link contains a photo of an F-15 flying the night skies of Jordan, and I’m willing to wager good money that the Royal Jordanian Airforce doesn’t fly the F-15.
TTG: “Israel doesn’t need any more enemies in the region than what she already has.”
But that’s my point: by CLAIMING they went through Syrian airspace the Israelis are giving the Plucky Little King some plausible-deniability, which Netanyahu would calculate the PLK(tm) will grab onto.
After all, you aren’t suggesting that they was the slightest risk of RJAF defenses opening hire on Bibi’s Boys(tm), are you?
Permission or not, forwarding or not, the Jordanians were never going to do that.
Bibi is giving the Jordanians an “out”, and they either take it or not. No skin off his nose either way, of course, but it costs him nothing to offer that “out”.
But, meanwhile, there is that… inconvenient… fact that an Israeli F-15 was photographed streaking over the night sky of Jordan.
Oops.
Yeah, Right,
The use of Jordanian airspace is key to defending against the next Iranian ballistic missile attack. In the last attack, Jordan actually shot don a few of the Iranian missiles. Netanyahu surely wants that option available during the next near inevitable Iranian missile attack.
Those photos of jets over Amman could have been from Israeli jets shooting down Iranian missiles during the last attack. Jordan has officially said her airspace was closed to both belligerents during this recent attack.
YR –
That photo of an F-15 that you linked to is a video capture off of a video that was first published by an Iraqi. No indication of his source or whether he took it himself from his rooftop in Baghdad.
” Jordan has officially said her airspace was closed to both belligerents during this recent attack.”
Officially. Said.
Good, we both agree on that score.
Looks like the IAF also hit at least two factory buildings in Shahroud 200 miles east of Tehran. That plant reportedly is involved in ballistic missile production.
https://x.com/fab_hinz/status/1850597562291515893
https://x.com/vcdgf555/status/1850615229966913833
I have to say that the explanation for what was in those buildings is thoroughly unconvincing.
These buildings are supposed to be where solid-fuel ballistic missiles are constructed.
Call me a sceptic but I would have thought that an Israeli warhead exploding inside a building containing solid-fuel ballistic missiles is going to produce quite the pyrotechnic display.
Apparently not.
Apparently an Israeli warhead exploding inside a building containing solid-fuel ballistic missiles produces the same amount of damage as an Israeli warhead exploding inside an empty building.
Who knew, heh?
YR –
There is no indication that the buildings targeted at Shahroud contained solid-fuel ballistic missiles. One was a casting building and it may not even have been in operation when it was hit. We don’t yet know the purpose of the other building that was hit.
We’ll know more when higher resolution imagery becomes available. Meanwhile perhaps you could give us a summary of your experience as a professional imagery interpreter that allows you to make such precise judgements.
But even if there was solid fuel in those buildings, how would we know whether or not there was a pyrotechnic display. They were hit in the early hours before dawn in a remote desert area with few civilians. I have yet to see video of the explosions on Shahroud.
lieth: “But even if there was solid fuel in those buildings, how would we know whether or not there was a pyrotechnic display.”
Because this is what buildings look like in the aftermath of a pyrotechnic display:
https://www.twz.com/news-features/satellite-images-show-massive-devastation-at-russian-ammo-storage-sites-struck-by-ukrainian-drones
Compare and contrast, lieth.
lieth: “I have yet to see video of the explosions on Shahroud.”
You don’t need to. You need only look at the state of the building in the aftermath of such explosions.
Israel struck some empty buildings. That is obvious from the satellite photos.
Iran’s Air Defence Intercept Israeli Strikes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PEKVwl88Lw
Assuming this video is authentic (from India NDTV), for an engineer like me it’s a beauty on a purely technical standpoint. Suppress for a moment which side you are on. This shows how a great Air Defense system works. All actions happens in the sky, no explosion can be seen on the ground. You’ll be the judge, but I’m quite impressed.
TonyL –
That video does not show any intercepts that I can see. Seems more like a panic party by air defense crews.
leith,
This camera was too far away, so we can’t really see much details. But there were some instances I can see a cluster of missiles going up at a slant angle. And there were missiles glowing (little balls of fire) with downward trajectory for a number of seconds and finally dispeared while in the air. Not all intercepts result in an explosion in the air. Especially we don’t know what type of AD system the Iranians were using.
And I don’t know whether this was an authentic video recording or not. Unfortunately, the video is no longer available.
Looks like Netanyahu has done just what Biden/Scholz did a couple of years back. Rammed his head against a brick wall.
And his generals have ignored the lessons clearly laid out by a multitude of historians. I recollect the English historian, Michael Burleigh, spelling it out years ago. You don’t use the fighting troops as Einsatzgruppen. Takes the edge off them. The Auschwitz-on-Sea Gaza was turned into should have been given its own units to do the genocide work and such fighting troops as the Israelis have should have been kept well away.
If they do in fact have any. Not a military man myself, but from what I’ve seen so far the IDF are nothing like as good as our proxies in Ukraine. Breaks your heart, seeing quality Ukrainian regulars being chucked away in the Donbass merely to save face for our politicians. Not so here. Watching the IDF in action, the Colonel’s judgement from so long ago still seems to apply. Good for shooting up Palestinian farmers but in general, scarcely useful fighting material.
As for the missile war, opinions I’ve seen from people who do know about such matters vary. Some say the Israeli missile strike was a flop. Others, that the Israelis have just been doing some preliminary scoping our of Iranian AD and the real barrage is to follow.
Makes no odds. Netanyahu doesn’t have a prayer unless he can bring the Americans in in force. But the impression I’m getting is that neither the Russians nor the Chinese nor the Americans want to see this thing balloon so it won’t.
I do wish people would shut up about this famous “Israeli lobby”. Of course the Israelis have a lobby in Washington! Every man and his dog has a lobby in Washington. But Netanyahu’s strength has always been that he owns tens of millions of votes in the States and no big American politician can afford to ignore those votes. Especially not before an election. The Baptists and Evangelicals, the megachurches, the Mormons, all the various groups that make up the American Christian Zionist voting bloc belong to Netanyahu, so we wait to see whether the Israelis own enough American votes to save their bacon.
My guess is not. The Americans are too vulnerable to upsets in the ME to go for broke there and in any case have let their technology get too far behind to cope with whatever the Iranians can throw at them. If it weren’t that the Israelis can threaten the Samson option such as Smotrich and Ben-Gvir would have been put back in the box long ago, American electoral considerations or not.
EO,
You continue on an unhinged trajectory that can only end in stark raving madness.
No one, except crazy people, likes Muslim terrorists. Honestly, no one really likes Muslims because they are backwards, intolerant, racist, misogynistic, religious fundamentalists, prone to violence, who represent at least some level of threat to any society with whom they come into contact. Anyone with any decency can sympathize with Israel having to live among such enemies. Only a sociopath is ok with leaving Israel and Jews to those rabid wolves.
US vulnerable to upsets in the MENA? The US + Israel could easily destroy any and all *existential* threats to Israel – meaning wipe out the militaries of the entire Muslim MENA in about two weeks, in much the same manner that the US did to Iraq’s military, twice, nonetheless. Sure, insurgencies are a problem in the follow-up, but insurgencies are not existential threats to Israel. They are only a problem when a) you try to govern and rebuild the country b) In attempting to govern and rebuild, you are bound by ROEs that don’t allow you to properly deal with the insurgency. The answer is to not try to govern the jackals and hyenas surviving in the ruins. Let them turn on each other.
Eric – I’m afraid I do disagree on many of those points. But the atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank, plus the wanton destruction in Lebanon, render it quite impossible not to.
Doesn’t stop us examining what’s actually happening or has just happened with those strikes on Iran. Just seen Alastair Crooke again, who states that the preliminary strike to disable Iranian AD didn’t work and the planned major attack was therefore called off.
Haven’t yet had time to watch the whole but merely the first few minutes, if correct, do seem to change the picture. See what you think. Set to where Crooke starts his exposition:-
https://youtu.be/txkNk76E3SI?t=125
All I can sat on that is that we’ve seen Shoigu and Mishushtin and others visiting Teheran, presumably accompanied by hosts of technical advisors and maybe more. We also know that the Russians and Iranians have become closer on defence and other matters and there has been much talk of the Russians providing AD.
I also caught a little on the failure of the IDF in Lebanon but if that’s so, not unexpected.
EO,
Alastair Crooke is well off the mark on this one. Modern aerial warfare relies on stand off missiles as the primary means of attack. The idea is not to have to enter airspace that may be heavily defended. His claim of an aborted attack is wishful thinking on his part. They probably degraded Iranian air defenses, but it would take more time (several days) and more sorties to destroy it.
I’ll stick with the Ayatollah’s assessment that the “attack was neither as grand as the Jewish state claimed nor as insignificant as state media were attempting to make it seem.” Whether the Israelis meant to keep the damage limited is a question unanswered. They did stick to military targets and stayed away from the oil industry and nuclear program.
TTG: “Modern aerial warfare relies on stand off missiles as the primary means of attack. ”
You have to use the tools that are available to you, TTG.
Israel has stand off missiles, but it doesn’t have very many of them.
It does, however, have a large inventory of free-fall bombs and – importantly – those bombs can fit inside the bomb bay of the F-35 in a way that the stand off missiles can not.
Alastair Crooke is correct: if the Israelis wanted to make use of their F-35 as a stealthy bomb truck then they need to load them with bombs, not with Blue Steel or Rocks or Golden Horizon stand off missiles.
Sling any of those under the wings of an F-35 and you can say goodbye to stealth.
So I can readily believe that the IDF plan was for the 1st wave to carry out a devastating SEAD strike, after which the 2nd wave would involve F-35 bombers dropping conventional bombs on their selected target.
And if that 1st wave failed – if SEAD didn’t happen – then that planned 2nd wave would have to be called off.
Seems a reasonable explanation for why the actual strike was so limp: what stand off weapons remained under the wings of the F-15 and F-16 is all that could be used: the F-35 just had to turn around and go home.
Yeah, Right,
The first wave secured the airspace over Syria and Iraq for the follow on waves as well as for the tankers and EW/surveillance aircraft. The F-35s may have been used in the first wave. The Iranian air defense network was part of the final target set along with some defense industry sites. Neither the Iranian air defense nor those military industrial targets were fully destroyed. Israel has said they picked 20 targets and how many were hit is publicly unknown.
TTG: “The Iranian air defense network was part of the final target set along with some defense industry sites.”
Hmmmm, a grammatical conundrum there, because it is axiomatic that if the SEAD mission fails then “that wave” is going to be the “final wave”, intended or unintended.
So you have more in common with Alistair Crooke than you believe, you just don’t know it.
“Israel has said they picked 20 targets and how many were hit is publicly unknown.”
And THAT statement is susceptible to the logical fallacy known as “post-hoc, ergo, protor-hoc”.
Care to consider that the Israelis did their post-stike damage assessment and could only find 20 holes that they could lay claim to, so that’s how many sites they claimed were on their target list?
Again, that would be fully consistent with what both you and Alistair Crooke is claiming
Yeah, Right,
The S-300 site at the Teheran Airport was one of the targets hit with those stand off missiles.Do you really believe Israel intended to fly their F-35s over Teheran? They were probably flying cover over their tankers and surveillance aircraft over Iraq. Not losing any Israeli aircraft was most likely just as important an objective as hitting targets in Iran.
TTG – Agree 100%. As you say, “Whether the Israelis meant to keep the damage limited is a question unanswered.”
Crooke will know that modern aerial warfare relies on stand-off missiles so his scenario will take account of that. Even so, he gives no firm sources. Neither, as far as I know, do others who believe this Israeli strike on Iran was the first stage of a failed attack.
From what we do know for certain, however, and as said to Eric, looks as if Netanyahu is running out of road. Israel is now subject to two formidable missile threats that neither he nor his allies can ward off, and two other missile threats that he hasn’t been able to ward off yet.
His army doesn’t consist of the hell for leather desert warriors of earlier times; and genocide and ethnic cleansing may have his fellow Israelis dancing in the streets but scarcely helps his cause internationally, not even in the States or Europe.
Washington’s incapable of anything more than lame PR now that the election’s so close. But it’s only Washington that can call a halt to the atrocities. Do you think it’ll be able to do so after the election? It’d only take one call from Biden to stop the genocide dead.
EO,
Both Natanyahu and the Ayatollah are stuck on a road of tit for tat attacks. Each would probably like to deal the other a devastating blow, but neither seems capable of doing so.
Crooke assumes Israel intended to destroy Iran with this attack. As I said, Israel is not capable of doing that with only her military and refrained from hitting those targets that would really damage Iran, the oil industry and nuclear facilities. They hit some targets and killed a couple of Iranians in the process. Why assume they expected to do much more? It was a limited attack and will probably not be the last such attack.
Competing to represent you
(Fredericksburg VA is in the Virginia 7th Congressional District):
“2 Army Veterans [Republican Derrick Anderson and Democrat Eugene Vindman]
Vie for House Seat in Virginia’s Most Competitive Race”
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/10/25/2-army-veterans-vie-house-seat-virginias-most-competitive-race.html
“Yevgeny “Eugene” Vindman rose to national prominence after helping his brother blow the whistle against President Donald Trump
for pressuring Ukrainian officials to investigate the Biden family.
The former Army colonel sees a different threat: Trump himself.”
See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Vindman
“Born
Yevgeny Semyonovich Vindman
June 6, 1975 (age 49)
Kiev, Ukrainian SSR, Soviet Union (now Kyiv, Ukraine)”
Any comments?
Keith Harbaugh,
I already voted for Vindman, but I had to look at Anderson based on his SF career. Vindman is a first generation American like my father so I certainly wouldn’t hold that against him. Anderson seems to be a good guy. I’d have a beer with him and talk about how SF has changed, but I couldn’t vote for him in this election. It would aid a possible Trump administration. The same situation is occurring in Maryland. The former governor was extremely popular and effective, supported by a lot of Maryland Democrats. However, if he wins the senate seat, it would aid a possible Trump administration. His pragmatic Republicanism would be buried by Trumpism.