So
the storm is over in Egypt. Or is it?
I
will write to the friends in this blog in more detail shortly. But for the
time being I have this to say:
*
The main concern now should be how not to push the Islamic groups out of the
political process. The return of Jama’a Islamiah, the Jihad assisted by some of
the Salafi base and a part of the MB’s youth to terrorism (a la 90’s) will
bring serious consequences to the economy and stability of Egypt. It will also
pave the road to strengthening the security measures, resorting to extra
judicial practices and getting Egypt back to the pre 2011 uprising, therefore
pushing the country yet again in the same path that led to the uprising.
Every
possible effort should be done to keep these organizations within the political
process for enough time to sever their still fresh roots in violence. All sorts
of “revenge”, illegal prosecution and political witch hunt should cease.
*
The expected reaction of the Islamists to the coup that is not a coup which
took place will vary from trying to create a sectarian confrontation (as is
already happening in Asyiut and Al Menia) by attacking the available soft
target, that is Coptic Churchs and gathering places. This is the preferred
tactic to identify “us” and “them”. It will allow the fanatics to re-engage the
population and recreate a bond with the Muslems in these communities. It will
also shift the light from the real issue to an issue of choice the redraws the
ties and enemities.
*
It is assumed that a population hostile to the fanatics will deprive them of
the favorable environment that is necessary in waging a terrorist war against
authorities. Then is true but only for some time and in some places. In upper
Egypt for example, family and clan ties are too strong to be effected by
political hostility. Furthermore, if the economic situation does not improve
rapidly, the “popular environment” may turn to favoring actions against the
authorities.
*
It is indeed of great importance to retrain the Egyptian police and totally
dismantle its traditional school of brutality, torture and arrogance. This is
always important. But it is particularly important now. The population seems to
have forgiven the police because the police refused orders to confront the
protesters. True or false, it is positive provided that the police force do not
move rapidly to squander this hardly regained capital. Police brutality was one
important factor in getting communities in upper Egypt (traditionally a strong
hold for the Jama’a Islamiyeh) to assist
terror activities in the past.
I
wanted to write in more specific terms about the mistakes of the US
administration since accepting the MBs argument that writing a consensus
constitution should precede the presidential elections (summer 2011) till the
count down to the 30th of June. Unfortunately I have to postpone
that for the time being due to time restrains. I just would like to say that
the pattern of mistakes as I will explain in another posting proves a lack of
strategy. Since Graham Fuller and the Algeria FIS story in the early 90’s the
question of relations with political Islam has been profoundly researched and
discussed in the US. It is striking that all these years of contacts,
observations, experiments, and manifestations of Islamic groups role in
political activities resulted in what we saw in the case of Egypt. The link
between all this great effort and accumulation of
knowledge in one hand and the current decision making process seems to be
non-existent.
All
Not being a trusting or particularly optimistic soul, I take the position that the MB in all its manifestations has demonstrated for the last two years that it wants nothing more than to consolidate its control in an exclusively Islamist theocracy of the MB variety, In such a state, all non MB Egyptians would effectively be Dhimmis barely tolerated and on the edge of society. Having lost power the MB will now seek to regain it by whatever means are necessary. Look for attacks on foreign tourists and hotels that serve alcohol and cater to those tourists. This will be intended to contribute to economic distress and to help create a revolutionary situation for the next “round.” I see the MSM media involved here in consulting the idiots who ran WH and State Department Egypt policy for the last two years. Amazing! What should be done in the new Egyptian government is to find malleable and controllable MB members to include in a new government and jail the rest of the MB leadership. Farming in Sinai might be a good new career for them. pl
A few brief initial comments, centered on the failures of the Obama policy. Washington’s blunders are non-partisan. They go back to a string of Democratic and Republican administrations, and they go to an issue that has been frequently raised by Col. Lang. The U.S. displays a degree of false hubris in attempting to fit Egypt into a Western democratic model and pursuing a policy that is based on measuring how far Egypt (and many other countries) proceeds along the lines of a North American or European democracy. Kerry went to Cairo soon after taking office accompanied by Tim Collins of Ripplewood Holding, a hedge fund with a very poor track record in advising developing sector countries on economic reform. Kerry’s message was blunt: Sign the deal with the IMF now. Cairo is not New York City and Upper Egypt is not Kansas. People with real experience and real insight dealing with Egyptian history, culture, etc. have been kept out of the deliberations and fantasies, like the idea that the Muslim Brotherhood was a pragmatic, reform-minder Islamist force for good, have replaced good judgment.
“What should be done in the new Egyptian government is to find malleable and controllable MB members to include in a new government”
Albayim, I am curious, who would be doing the “controlling”, and who would protect the “malleable” members of the MB from their more radical brothers? And would it not be a giant task to jail rest of their leadership and create symbols of resistance out of them for the masses to rally around, adding to their ongoing claims of victimhood?
Kunuri
As you have said here, governments imbued with a religious program are inherently absolutist and will not compromise. How could they compromise? Does God compromise? I meant to convey the thought that the MB and similar politician/religious activists should not be allowed to hold significant power in Egypt. Who will control them? If the panoply of political forces who have now been restored to power cannot control them then they deserve to be ruled by the likes of the MB. Attacks on the “adaptable” among MB participants in the new government should be treated with the greatest severity. pl
Amateur night at the opera – or on the world stage – may sometimes produce wry smiles but never success. A distinguishing trait of the Obama presidency is a preference for amateurs. After all, the President himself is an amateur – who is uncomfortable in the presence of independent minded people who actually know something.
Within 72 hours, the White House managed to alienate the large majority of Egyptians along with those throughout the region who identify with the opposition (above all, the very young secularists who are the closest thing to our sort of people); most of Western European opinion and some governments; and nearly all Latin American. Hundreds of millions of people in 3 days. And it did so by resorting only to words. Surely this is a Guinness record that will stand for all time.
“If the panoply of political forces who have now been restored to power cannot control them then they deserve to be ruled by the likes of the MB.”
As I am a complete ignoramus about Egypt, I hesitate to comment.
However, I do find myself wondering whether this judgment might not be a bit harsh.
Reasonable people, attempting to find a way out of the dead end into which our fatuous enthusiasm for promoting ‘democracy’ has helped lead them might find themselves faced with the bleakest of choices.
Some kind of middle way between brutal repression which ends up being counter-productive, and an attempt to co-opt the uncooptable, may be very difficult to find.
As often, this reminds me of the dilemmas faced by late Tsarist statemen I much admire — like Peter Stolypin and Peter Durnovo.
The route of repression meant that they alienated the liberal intelligentsia — without whose support effective ‘modernisation’ was made much more difficult, as they included such a large proportion of those with the skills and mentality required to develop a ‘modern’ economy and society.
Appeasement of the liberal intelligentsia, with their enthusiasm for Western ideas of democracy, was however inherently likely to to open the floodgates to a social revolution. Once one said that Westernised intellectuals were entitled to the vote, how could one say that peasants who wanted an expropriation of the landowners were not so entitled?
Moreover, very much of the peasantry regarded the Westernised intelligentsia — both its conservative and liberal elements — as fundamentally culturally alien. In that respect, Stalin was not Lenin’s heir, but his antithesis.
The original Bolsheviks were, in large measure, the extreme left-wing of the Westernised intelligentsia. It was precisely this fact which made it so easy for Stalin, who rose to power in large measure as the representative of the ‘muzhik-military’ elite created by the revolution and civil war, to destroy them.
The route chosen by figures like Stolypin and Durnovo involved extremely brutal repression. I do not know how, if I had had to face the choices faced by ‘Westernised’ Russians in the years leading up to 1917, I would have chosen. I am thankful never to have been put into the that position.
Whether, had circumstances been more favourable, the savage — but limited — repression they advocated could have avoided the apocalypse of destruction which Stalin unleashed, remains of course an unanswerable question.
David Habakkuk
“I do find myself wondering whether this judgment might not be a bit harsh.”
You do not know the Arab World. It is – win political control or die a slave to medieval religiosity. If you want to see this as a social justice issue then you are mistaken. It is a matter of survival. pl
Albayim, as you must have deduced by now, I am trying to establish how what’s happening in Egypt presently relates to what has been happening, or may happen in Turkey. But unfortunately I have some contentions with what you have stated above about Egypt.
First of all who are “the panoply of political forces who have now been restored to power?”
Where do they derive their legitimacy from? OK, mass dissatisfaction with MB rule, and no way to change their course through political institutions, its a given which I get. But are they being used for as a tool for a comeback for the Mubarek leftover foxes?
Who are their leaders and what legitimate organizations they represent? And if they have been “restored” to power, how and when they have been brought into power in the first place, before they have been brought into a position of power? And about dealing with greatest severity with the members of the most radical elements of MB for whatever reason, haven’t Mubarek tried that with all the powers available to him in his heyday?
This is all so confusing to me, it confronts me with the most disturbing expectation from a most undemocratic and oligarchic institution in Egypt, the Army, to hand over power to an uncertain protestant group, while clamping down severely on a most radical another almost half without breaking too many eggs and keeping the economy going and causing the poverty from getting way out of hand.
So, in conclusion, it seems to me it is not as simple as sending the bad guys out and keeping them down, while giving the other team a shot for making things better because they are righteous and protested very loudly and effectively. I hope all this does not contradict my belief that MB are exactly as you describe them, compounded with the belief I have that the Army in Egypt is an evil necessity which it exploits to its full benefit. I just wonder.
Colonel Lang,
You misrepresent me.
I was not taking a view on the nature of the aspirations of Islamists in Egypt or elsewhere — and certainly not suggesting that they were driven by a longing for ‘social justice’.
In relation to the Russian revolution, I certainly think it is true that — as the late great Moshe Lewin put it, quoting the French scholar Pierre Pascal — ‘One should not forget that the revolution in 1917 was, for those soldiers and peasants who made it, a revolution of Christian indignation against the state.’
And that fact in itself illustrates how aspirations to social justice can end up tragically.
However, that was not the analogy I was making between matters to do with Russia, about which I have at least a smattering of knowledge, and matters to do with the Arab world, about which I am profoundly ignorant and very well aware of the fact. Nowhere did I make any judgement whatsoever about the motivations of Islamists in Egypt, or anywhere else in the Middle East.
The tentative analogy I wanted to make related to a generalised belief that, in societies where the impact of ‘Western’ ideas is strong among sections of the elite, but weak among the mass, the dilemmas the Westernised sections of the elite faces can be utterly intractable.
It is in this rather limited — but not altogether trivial — sense that the failures of Western elites to make any serious attempts to come to grips with the tragedies of Russian history seems to me to have some relevance to their misconceptions of events in Iraq, Syria, and Egypt.
David Habakkuk,
I just posted something on the same lines as your comments but you have pretty much elaborated what I have been trying to say, much more eloquently as usual.
Thank you. Wheeeew…
It is difficult to think that the government and its forces will show restraint and hold back the arrogance. The Air Force doing flybys of Tahrir Square in formation certainly isnt a good sign…..
Albayim, economic considerations, wealth distribution and money figures prominently in this equation even beyond dogma. Decidedly, its not a social justice issue, since their version of it is derived from the book, it will never coincide with the modern understanding of it. Since material power is the main pillar of their survival, all perhaps needs to be viewed from a strict Adam Smith point of view.
All
Ah! You have found me out! I don’t give a damn about the voting rights of ignorant fellahiin if their enthusiasm for groups like the MB results in the destruction of multi-cultural, cosmopolitan societies like that of modern Egypt. Medieval obscurantism is BAD. BAD. BAD. Let me get this straight, Kunuri, you think that the MB government would have presided over an economic re-birth of Egypt and greater prosperity for the masses? If that is true you ought to think that through. Tourism would NEVER have come back and the government would have been run by people who think that; women should be chattels and that interest paid in banks is usury. The idea that “one size fits all” in government no matter what the differences are in culture is a neocon idea now demonstrated in history to be silly. are you a neocon? What just happened in Egypt was a re-call petition served at the presidential pattern by the army. Good! pl
Looks like the army is moving to implement exactly what the doctor – sorry, the colonel ordered.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23189180
The question is whether this is a temporary detention while the dust settles, or whether we are back to the old policy of imprisoning Islamists by default. I can’t see how the latter path wouldn’t lead to an Algerian-like civil war.
Toto
Bless them. From my lips to Sissi’s ears. You may be right about the civil war. Some things are worth fighting for. The defeat of Islamist government in Egypt is one of them. pl
Could someone comment on the al-Nour Party leadership’s decision to break with the Nursi government (last weekend, I believe) and to call for its demission? Was it based on a purely tactic judgment that its own interests were served by distancing itself from its rival for pretty much the same constituency? Or are there deeper differences that could affect Nour’s place in whatever configuration is taking shape?
Certainly Albayim, I am not a neocon, though you addressed your latest comment to “All”.
MB had one and only one agenda, and to the goodness of Egyptian people they gave him a shot, now it is evident that he blew it. I hope he drew some lessons.
I am trying to say that Egyptian Army does not have the sophistication to implement a system which fits all, and satisfies all which is a discredited idea of the neocons as you rightfully assert. I am more concerned that their heavy handed military approach may embolden and strengthen the hardcore MB, as evidenced by the immediate and unconditional support they received by the AKP government in Turkey. Can’t the Army be a little more cunning in curbing MB’s influence while maintaining at least a resemblance of even handedness and creating an atmosphere of stability which might allow business to return?
MB took a slap on the face, but they will return in a much more glib shark suit-and I am hoping that Egyptians will find an albeit uneasy way to co-exist as long as prosperity returns and nobody steps on other’s calloused toes. I sincerely hope that they, the MB, secularists, the Army and the Mubarek left-overs find a way to work it out together. Dominance of one over the others will end up in disaster, I hope they see this.
A civil war in Egypt, and I am really sorry to disagree Albayim, will benefit no one, and it is not as dire as it seems to be. No one will win, and even a victory will be over nothing for the winning side. A civil war to defeat a no longer existing Islamic government is not needed. The lavishly US funded non self-sufficient Egyptian Army is a reflection of the society they are sworn to protect, they will be subject to disintegration as soon as it is in an ill conceived civil war.
How will one define victory in such a civil war, MB will never be eradicated. I am really sorry to say this, but if 3 Billion or so Egypt has been getting in military aid from US for the last 3 decades were to be spent in education of the ignorant fellahin who now vote and support MB it would not have come to this discussion. My protest is for those who thought a militarily strong Egypt is better than an enlightened and self sufficient Egypt.
kunuri
When did I say that I favored a civil war in Egypt? the Islamists should accept their defeat and try to function inside a society not dictated y their bigotry. The US can stop subsidizing the Egyptian armed force tomorrow for all I care. you see this as some kind of colonialism? The only reason we give them anything is because the Zionists her demand it. we will stop and then China or Russia will fund them. pl
kunuri
It actually looks as though the Egyptian military is doing what you want in terms in subtleties. As for the Islamists, they lie, cheat, misrepresent themselves with the sole aim of an end state in which they have sole power in a Shariah law state. You should consider whether or not you want that for Turkey. pl
Albayim, with all due respect again, recall petitions do not exist in Middle East, as they do say, in California as the Davis recall, highly regulated, codified, fair and rightful recourse for a dissatisfied people.
In Egypt it was a popular bloodless soft military coup by an opportunistic military. Recall winners are normally are the opposition parties and dissatisfied electors. After a recall normal election laws without tanks kick in, a new winner is declared and certified. Sorry Albayim, I just hate to disagree with you. Please do not take this disagreement as if I know something.
kunuri
If you do not see that this was a populist repudiation of a crazed government then I have nothing more to say. pl
Albayim, no worries, Turkey woke up to this possibility as of May 30th.
Finally in Turkey at least, the saying ” You can fool some of the people all the time, and all of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all the time” may have come to hold true.
Respects.
As predicted by our host two years ago, the collapse of Washington’s delusional policies in Egypt. Maybe the Tunisian military will take heart before that country is trashed any further by the medieval bearded ones. Assad seems pleased and new ruler of Qatar made a 180 it appears. Maybe he will get rid of his MB mufti next.
I wrote this today:
http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2013/july/04/what-is-happening-in-egypt.aspx
Yes, Albayim, I do see it as a “populist repudiation of a crazed government”. This is in no way in contradiction of what I wrote before and I approve the coup. What I am worried is what is to come, and who does what for what reasons. And how will that be for the benefit of Egyptian people?
But I do not think it was a recall as I know what a recall is.
The influence of MB should definitely be minimalized, but it can not be eradicated. They should not be made into victims, but exposed for the incompetents that they are.
The means to nuetrolise them should contain minimum violence and maximum cunning. US and Turkey should not be involved and seen not to be taking sides. Seen to be neutral, but involved just the same. It is possible.
And no Sir, I do not want Sharia Law for Turkey, as a huge majority in Turkey will not stand for it and realistically it would never come to pass in now hedonistic and consumerist Turkish society. But they creep in, and the youth protest with flags of Ataturk superimposed on Turkish flag, I hope they know who they are taking on. Not to worry too much, adolescent tweeter Kemalists are not to let this one slip away anytime soon.
My estimate is that it was tactical. They were rivals of the MB and probably believed that, once the MB consolidated its position, it would gobble up their supporters. Now they must be hoping to reverse the process — let the military knock down the MB and its supporters would come to them.
For the future of Egypt the biggest threat is the outbreak of jihadi Islamist terrorism. With al-Nour part of the new political setup its jihadi wing will probably have more room to acquire strength before commencing violence. It is likely that MB jihadis would see joining al-Nour jihadis as the best option.
Attention is currently focussed on events in Egypt. It is also worth looking at reactions to these events in the ME. Apart from Turkey and Tunisia, all the other Sunni countries have welcomed the ouster of the MB. Even Qatar, which was the MB’s biggest backer (and not only in Egypt)!
Qatar’s reaction lends weight to the view that the recent transition of rule there from the former ruler to his son (and the latter’s removal of the powerful former prime minister) was partly, if not largely, due to disagreement over the former dispensation’s all-out backing of the MB in the ME. We may well see the pullback of Qatari support from the MB in Libya and, possibly, even Syria.
Colonel, hasn’t the civil war already begun? The combatants just haven’t realized it yet.
FWIW: There was a split in the Al-Nour party last January when “the head of Al-Nour Party, Imad Abdul Ghafoor, resigned to form the new Al-Watan party to create an opposing force to the Al-Nour cadres and to take with him the party’s headquarters.”
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/01/salafist-schism-nour-watan-egypt.html#ixzz2Y8Ctyzye
It seems that the party which won ~ 25% of the electorate has been fragmented into three Salafist parties.
An informative article about the who’s who as far as Islamists are concerned in Egypt:
http://www.mei.edu/content/are-salafi-parties-turning-against-morsi
drifter
Yes. The only question is whether actual shooting will commence. pl
Col Lang
I remember once you referenced Gen Sheridan and the Plains Indians when I asked why were the Algerian security forces killing all the AQIM that had taken the hostages at the natural gas facility . Is that what you also mean when you say’ win political control or die” in the current affairs in Egypt ? Am I to understand that Morsi is just of much a “Plains Indian ” in this context as say Dr Zawhari ( sp?) who is now I think the titular head of al Qaida . I am still trying to keep up with the ‘many rooms ” you sometimes mention . (Also wish to apologize to any Native Americans whom we may have offended talking about Gen Sheridan ) .
I guess now would not be a good time to be a Western tourist at Luxor..
AE
The two situations do not even remotely resemble each other. The MB and Salafists in general are nothing like the stone age peoples that American settlers and their little army confronted on the Great Plains or anywhere else. The American Indian could not make modern weapons, was in no way organized into large, coherent groups and had no unifying ideology. IMO Salafists are medievalists but that does no make them primitive. Our own ancestors when they lived in the Middle Ages possessed a unifying culture that was remarkably advanced in many things. Thomas Aquinas, the Venerable Bede, Dante, etc. These were all men of great accomplishment and learning, but they possessed a mindset that was self limiting in terms of what we think of as modern values. The same thing is true of Salafists who are often highly accomplished in ways that do not include such values as a real willingness to operate in a political setup that includes the idea of a loyal opposition, the willingness to compromise with opponents rather than trick or suppress them in silent acquiescence, the ability to see the other side of an argument. People who have these Salafists characteristics may be physicians, lawyers, journalists or doctors of the holy law but they are united in one thing. They believe that anyone who does not agree with them is wrong and an enemy of God. Such a mindset is a vastly different problem than that posed by people whose greatest skills were skinning a buffalo or doing the Sun Dance. BTW lay off the political correctness crap about Indians. We don’t do PC here. pl
Will a suppression of the MB even work with regards to securing a more secular state in Egypt?
It seems there are plenty of other Islamist parties ready to take over from the MB. Al-Nour being the clear favourite with massive voter support.
poul
I remember a conversation I had with Omar Suleiman 20 years ago when he was head of military intelligence. I asked him if the degree of salafist penetration of the armed forces was a serious problem. He said that it was not because fifty or more were arrested each week. Nothing lasts forever in human experience. Like others here you seem to believe in societies that are in stasis with people embedded in them like flies in amber. In fact all life is a dynamic process. Secular modernity can be maintained in Egypt if the modernists put enough effort into that. pl
Fascinating and not hard to believe. There has to be some factions on the Arabian peninsula who have not forgotten the threat that certain strains of political islam pose to their own fortunes.
The opportunities that Mursi has squandered must be a dreadful reminder to the more temporal minded in the Middle East.
MM
“… that Mursi has squandered must be a dreadful reminder to the more temporal minded in the Middle East.” This implies that Mursi was a sincere reformer who wanted to compromise. IMO that was not true. He knew exactly what he wanted to do and was doing it. even the Saudis wanted him gone. the despise the MB as following a dispensation that has nothing to do with their Wahhabi faith. They, Qatar, China and Russia are all possible sources of money for Egypt. pl
Col. Lang:
I believe you regarding, Mursi.
Reading between the lines, is it reasonable to assume that the Wahhabi’s have a project on the back burner for Egypt?
MM
It has been there for generations. i helped fight off such a project in Lebanon once long ago but they never relent. God is with them pl
Very well put Colonel. I much feel the same way about our very own fellahin living in fly over country.
Col Lang
Thank you sir . Yes I will lay off the PC . But let me try to redirect my question – the Sayyaf group was the wellspring for al Qaida in the 1980’s , fighting the Russian in Afgahnistan . Dr Zawahri & Usma bin Laden as I understand it or /were the titular heads of al Qaida. Is Morsi & the MB allied in ideology and goals with al Qaida ?
AE
IMO the MB and Saudi Wahhabism/AQ are antithetical in terms of ideology, but that does not make the MB “good guys.” pl
Col Lang ,
I am going to need to do some more studying on this to ask better questions . It seems like it was a big deal when Morsi cut ties with Syria -and called for Jihad against Assad . So that then does not mean that the MB would want SA & Qatar backed rebels to necessarily replace the current Syrian government .
? I do get that neither the Saudi Wahhabees or the MB ‘s are the ‘good guys’ .
AE
Sunni triumph trumps all. pl
Col Lang,
So while the MB & the House Saud might be inter Sunni rivals , they both would welcome a triumphant Sunni overthrow of Assad ? And for that matter Erdogan would also welcome a Sunni victory in Syria?
Alba Etie
“while the MB & the House Saud might be inter Sunni rivals , they both would welcome a triumphant Sunni overthrow of Assad ? And for that matter Erdogan would also welcome a Sunni victory in Syria?” Yes to all of that. you are making progress in your program as an auto-didact. That’s a compliment. pl
FWIW:
Tim Collins sits on the board of the Commercial International Bank of Egypt and Weather Investments
“Weather Investments S.p.A. is a leading international telecommunications company offering mobile, fixed, Internet and international communication services to over 90 million subscribers in Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Greece, Italy, Pakistan, and Tunisia .
Guess who is the major share holder of WIND
Commercial International Bank, or CIB, is an Egyptian bank with headquartered in Cairo, Egypt. The bank is the largest private-sector lender in Egypt.
Plus Collins is supposed to manage the $4B that , supposedly some businessmen is willing to invest in Palestine ( according to Kerry and Blair) !!!
Thank you Col Lang .
PS
Maybe I should carve out some time for the websites Khan Academy & Udacity.