Jubilation! – TTG

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Damascus is on her way in achieving her ultimate goal of regaining control over all her territory and achieving peace thanks to VV Putin and the welcome and necessary assistance of DJ Trump. There’s no other way to put it. Elijah Magnier has summarized the current situation in a series of tweets this afternoon. If his summary is accurate, it is indeed good news. 

————

The Syrian Army is in Manbij now. Another Syrian Army force heading towards the Turkish advance supported by Syrian Kurds. 

It only needed the announcement of the US withdrawal to put the end of the war in Syria on a fast track in no time.

Kurds agreed on all requested points by Damascus and Russia is the guarantor. Kurds have become part of the Syrian security allied forces. The Syrian Army agreed to take in hand all ISIS prisoners, families and those on the run. Europe will have to deal with Damascus now. 

Breaking news: Syrian Army forces prepared to take control of Ayn al-Arab this evening.

FYI: SAA maintains forces in Qamishli along with some allies.

This situation – the withdrawal of US forces and its behaviour with Kurds after years of battles on the ground – will tremendously help Russia in confirming its credibility and commitment toward its allies and truthful partnership as a substitute to the untrustworthy US.

Important:  The advance of the Syrian Army doesn't mean a clash with the Turkish forces. Russia is reaching a comprehensive agreement with Turkey and Damascus to halt the military operation as soon as possible.

The main target is reached: the US forces out of Syria. Turkey feared a well-armed and powerful YPG, the PKK Syrian branch, previously supplied/protected by the US. Now that the US is pulling out, Damascus shall not allow any attack or threat against Turkey and won't accept an independent Rojava. Adana agreement is back on track

————

The SAA has just moved into Tabqa airbase.  “The Self-Administration of Northeast release[d] a statement that they call on Syrian army to protect the country's borders and preserve Syrian sovereignty & support SDF to repel Turkish aggression and liberate areas occupied by "Turkish army and its hired mercenaries" (from Wladimir Wilgenburg). My guess, though, is that the SDF will very soon cease to exist. Those forces will be integrated directly into the SAA or become NDF auxiliaries. The Kurds will not get their semi-autonomous Rojava, but they will be alive, living in their ancestral lands and under Damascus’ governance.

Neocons throughout the world will wail in the darkness and gnash their teeth. They will still blame Trump for “losing Syria.” But take it from me, someone who has absolutely no respect for the man, Trump done good. His willingness to work with Putin is making Syria a better place. Putin could not have orchestrated this without Trump’s willingness (or boldness) to buck the entire USG.  Good on him for this one, even if he may not have been aware of exactly what he did. He can chalk this up as a victory for the American people.

Even with this momentous turn of events, the SAA and Russia are not forgetting Idlib. Today a flight of eight Syrian attack helicopters tore the jihadis a new one outside Kabani. Russian Aerospace Forces also hit the area. This is in preparation for a renewed push in Latakia.

The photo at the top of this post is labeled Celebrations in Qamishli and Hasaka. People celebrating the "start of the deployment of the Syrian army to confront Turkish aggression". I think we should celebrate as well. I’m sure we’ll hear a lot more tomorrow.

TTG

This entry was posted in Borg Wars, Current Affairs, Middle East, Syria, TTG. Bookmark the permalink.

47 Responses to Jubilation! – TTG

  1. Avatar JohnH says:

    There’s lots of talk about a US withdrawal. But when will that take place? And who will issue the order? As of Friday US SF were still there. Apparently they were free to talk publicly to Fox, but they never heard about Trump’s order!
    https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/11/politics/turkey-artillery-fire-us-syria/index.html
    It seems like the chain of command is broken. Isn’t it time for some heads to roll at DOD to reestablish the chain of command?

  2. Avatar robt willmann says:

    France appears to have suspended the delivery of some war materiel to Turkey because of the offensive by Turkey into Syria–
    https://twitter.com/florence_parly/status/1183099836117196800

  3. Avatar Babak Makkinejad says:

    TTG
    Trump had nothing to do with this except knowing when to fold them.

  4. Babak, he didn’t even have to know when to fold them. All he had to do was fold them when he was told to fold them. Still, that was only possible because Trump has no ideological bent for neocon forever wars.

  5. The order for withdrawal was only given today. Prior to this, it was only a pullback of a small number of troops.

  6. Avatar turcopolier says:

    TTG
    Who would have told him to fold them? Who?

  7. Erdogan reportedly “rolled” Trump in their phone call. Putin no doubt also made his wishes clear. I have no idea if Putin and Erdogan coordinated leading up to the US pullback. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Putin set Erdogan up.

  8. Avatar JP Billen says:

    According to the NYT, the withdrawal of US forces is only from northern Syria. Trump is leaving the Special Forces troops in southern Syria at al-Tanf in place for now.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/us/politics/mark-esper-syria-kurds-turkey.html
    He seems to still have a stick up his backside about Iran. Must have got a last minute call from Netanyahu.

  9. Avatar JP Billen says:

    John H,
    The US troops in Syria were following their chain of command. On Friday, SecDef Esper briefed that American troops were only leaving the Turkish border area. And also that the Pentagon was considering sending more troops to Syria to act as force protection for those already there.
    Late Saturday night Esper changed his tune. Probably after he learned the Turkish artillery deliberately bracketed the US OP on Mashtenour Hill. Now they are taking them all out except for the small unit in southern Syria. It could take a short time to get them out. You can’t just snap your fingers and make them disappear.

  10. Avatar Jack says:

    TTG
    Does it matter how he “folded”? The bottom line is unlike Bush and Obama he dumped on the neocons and ordered US forces out of Syria fulfilling a campaign promise. That’s of course dependent on if US troops actually leave. In any case he’s got splodey heads in neocon central. Just read the tweets from Max Boot, Billy Kristol and even Hillary.

    The same people that got us into the Middle East Quicksand, 8 Trillion Dollars and many thousands of lives (and millions of lives when you count the other side), are now fighting to keep us there. Don’t listen to people that haven’t got a clue. They have proven to be inept!

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1183232552464719873?s=21

  11. Avatar yt kealoha says:

    Too bad trump just moved them all to Saudi

  12. Avatar John Merryman says:

    Isn’t this just blowback for the latest effort to impeach him?

  13. Avatar Christian J Chuba says:

    At a minimum this means that all of Syria will now benefit from their oil fields, not just the 5% of the population that is Kurdish and the handful of Sunni Arabs that joined them.
    Regarding my obsession, the MSM, I hate them because they are the Praetorian guard for the Borg. CNN, et al, cannot bring themselves to call this Syrian territory that rightfully belongs to the Syrian Arab Republic. They are all sputtering, ‘the Kurds were forced to make a deal with our enemy, the regime in Damascus. This is a victory for the Russians.’ How can you call this reporting, this is pure propaganda. I wouldn’t hate them if they would just come out and say, ‘we are state media’ but they hold themselves up as the fifth estate, the watchogs, just because they hate the President who has the least impact on bureaucracy that outlasts him.

  14. Avatar ted richard says:

    focusing our attention on the day to day machinations of turkey and kurds and usa troops is like looking at a map of the mississippi river as it winds its way down missouri towards new orleans.
    the only thing that matters is the river empties at new orleans just as the only thing that matters is syria will become whole once again. those with real power have decided it so.
    ignore the day to day news and all the sound and fury coming from the usual suspects as they signify nothing.

  15. Avatar Christian J Chuba says:

    Crafty Erdogan
    There is an article on http://www.checkpointasia.net, can’t link to it directly now because for some reason my employer considers it porn (one of my favorite sites). In any case, it said that in the run up to the Turkish invasion while we were negotiating a ‘safe zone’ one of the agreements was to demolish Kurdish fortifications along the border. I guess that makes sense, if you agree to a zone 20 miles back from the border. The Turks launched their attack after all of the fortifications were leveled.
    I believe it.

  16. Avatar Babak Makkinejad says:

    He has committed the United States to a long war against Iran.
    He has also done the same thing in Palestine, viz. condemned Israel to a long war against Islam.
    Let us see if he is going to permit Saudis to end their war in Yemen.

  17. Avatar Barbara Ann says:

    Jack
    At one level yourself and @ted richard are right that the outcome is what is important. However, I think how this was done is of supreme interest. Even if the SDF reconciliation was a happy accident, the sheer audacity of Trump’s decision, expressed through Esper, is awe inspiring. It is absolutely clear he is not afraid to take on the Borg now and with Bolton gone who knows what else he might achieve?
    But if this was a premeditated plan to provide a near death experience for the Kurds with the explicit aim of engineering a SAG/Russian takeover there are many fascinating questions: Whose plan was it? Who was in on it (I would not rule out Erdogan)? When was it conceived? How was coordination with Trump’s pull out order achieved? If, as seems highly likely, Trump was not the architect, how was he able to trust that following through on his part (the withdrawal order) was not a trap? Additionally, other questions arise in respect of the Borg’s response. Do they know/suspect they have been had? Will they identify (from their POV) the mole or communication channels used to ‘collude’? What will be their reaction if similar tactics are tried again in Iraq, or even Afghanistan?
    So much of this seems unknowable right now, but even if what happened yesterday was not orchestrated and I think it likely was, we seem to be in a different FP paradigm today.

  18. To All:
    This information is from JohninMK who posted this comment on another thread. He is reposting a twitter thread from Danny Makki from London who describes himself as a recovering Damascene and Syria analyst.
    This is a twitter post, I hope I can post it here. The SAA have already taken over the whole Al-Taqba area including the dam and airfield. As an indication of how welcome the SAA are it seems that most of the soldiers are being transported in buses. This is the tweet. Danny Makki ‏ @Dannymakkisyria 2 hours ago These are the main points in the agreement between the SDF and the Syrian government.
    1/ The abolishment of the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), with all the current Kurdish forces and military groups joining the 5th Corps (Assault Legion) under Russian control 3:12 AM – 14 Oct 2019
    2/ A solid guarantee of full Kurdish rights in the new Syrian constitution with autonomy which will be agreed upon by Kurdish leadership & Syrian state.
    3/ Joint coordinated effort by Syrian/Kurdish forces to remove Turkish presence in northern Syria including Afrin (Idleb doesn’t count)
    4/ Manbej & Kobani were agreed upon for SAA to enter quickly, whilst Hasakeh has seen a wide scale deployment of Syrian troops, this will continue in Qamishly and other joint areas
    5/ With Syrian forces now on the border area with Turkey it’s clear that this starts a new phase in the 8-year-long war where some sort of endgame is now taking shape – all border areas and administrational centres will be taken over by the Syrian government
    6/ Within one month Kurdish leadership with start to take up some official roles within the current Syrian government to ease the transition period of N. #Syria until an new constitution/government is formed in the future
    7/ Tabqa in Raqqa was also on the agreement, Syrian forces entered the city and took control of the military airbase earlier today
    8/ Russia had brokered a similar deal a few days ago, yet it was rejected by Damascus who wanted more concessions from the SDF.
    9/ As per-agreement Syrian forces entered Ein Issa in N. Raqqa today
    10/ The agreement between SDF and Syrian gov is yet to be fully completed, the finer details will be fleshed out over the next four days.
    11/ For now all ISIS prisoners remain under the control of the Kurds
    12/ The agreement thus far is effectively a military one, based on self-defense and mutual interest with a number of set aims. The governance/land delegation/isis prisoners part will follow later
    13/ Syrian forces will deployed on the entirety of the border with Turkey, this is the first time in 6 years that the Syrian army will have a serious presence in N. East Syria
    14/ Although Manbej is one of the cities that the Syrian army would take according to the agreement, the situation there is still tense and it is unclear exactly who will control it.
    15/ Breaking: reports of imminent Turkish attack on Manbej
    Prior to yesterday’s developments, I’ve see reports of Turkish bridging equipment approaching the river separating the SDF from the Turks/jihadis north of Manbij. It seemed pretty obvious they intended to take Manbij as part of their offensive. The buildup of SAA forces south of Manbij appeared to be part of an effort to prevent that crossing. The SAA not only intends to prevent the Turks from moving further south, but the SAA fully intends to take Afrin. That will make Idlib much less tenable.

  19. Al Masdar reports US forces have prevented an SAA column from entering Kobani until the US forces fully withdraw from the area. Time is of the essence for the SAA to enter Kobani and prevent further Turkish/jihadi advances so the the US blocking action, even if only temporary, is disconcerting. AMN also tells of an alleged Coalition air strike on an SAA column en route to the city of Al-Tabaqa. Sure there is bound to be some confusion in a rapidly developing situation, but I have to wonder who is calling the shots here. Clearly the USG and DOD are not acting in concert. Are we about to see firefights break out in the halls of the Pentagon?
    https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-military-blocks-syrian-armys-entry-into-border-city-video/
    https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-coalition-bombs-syrian-army-convoy-in-southern-raqqa-sohr/

  20. Avatar casey says:

    Yes, but what suddenly gives Trump uncharacteristic “willingness (or boldness) to buck the entire USG”? That’s a mighty big order to fill for someone whose tit has been in the DNC/FBI/CIA/CNN soft-coup wringer before he was even in office. Also, what options for revenge do the Zio-Cons pursue now, and in what venues do they pursue it?

  21. Danny Makki said yesterday that the alleged airstrike was actually an IED explosion. Thank God for that.

  22. Avatar seward says:

    Note the parallel between Mr. Trump and Mr. Nixon: The mass media and all correct-thinking people hated the latter in his era, and eventually ousted him via what he seems to have really believed was a covert CIA operation. (It was, but against him.) But as several of my lifer friends observed, he got us out of Vietnam. (They’d been there several tours.) And made peace with Chine. There’s even an opera about it. We’re only now beginning to see his historical significance.
    It seems to me quite likely that Mr. Trump is cut from the same cloth: equally disliked and disparaged, fairly unpleasant personally (in a different way), even with his own CIA plot against him, but determined to keep us out of wars, and get us out of the ones we’re in. Quite likely he’ll suffer a similar fate to Mr. Nixon’s, but 50 years from now historians may begin to appreciate him.

  23. TTG – It would be kind if you could leave me with the illusion that he’s still playing 4D chess.
    What he must be doing, however, is coordinating break-outs like this with such as Brad Parscale. Is this latest move playing well in Trump country, might I ask?

  24. Seward, the idea that this was a “only Nixon could go to China” situation ran through my mind since last night. No matter how Trump got here, it’s good for America. Now if he can do this for Saudi Arabia and the rest of the region, he will have one hell of a legacy.

  25. Avatar plantman says:

    Thank you for this excellent, excellent reporting-analysis
    Absolutely incredible!

  26. Avatar Barbara Ann says:

    Trump is characteristically bold. Anyone who decides to take on the entire Republican establishment then run for President with zero political experience against The Anointed One can hardly be described as otherwise. Maybe he’s just pissed at the perma-coup or the chance his tax returns might come out. Should he be afraid? He should be a lot of things, but it looks to me like Trump is in full Samson mode now. Watch out for falling masonry.

  27. Avatar PeterVE says:

    As i read this, I listen to a retired admiral flogging his latest book on NPR. The dissonance between the neo-con line spouted by the admiral and the far better news I read here is breathtaking. It’s why I usually only listen to Spanish language pop music on the radio…

  28. Avatar Jack says:

    Barbara
    The questions you ask are very important.
    I was being flippant. It was hilarious how distraught and hysterical Max Boot and Bill Kristol seemed at what they labeled the back stabbing of “allies”. I suppose Bibi and MbS may not rest that easily anymore as Trump could surprise.

  29. Avatar BABAK MAKKINEJAD says:

    Nixon was a strategist of the first order. Trump is not. You are reading too much into a minor situation.

  30. Avatar Nancy K says:

    I wish Trump well in this endeavor, we have a son in the Navy in the area and would like to see peace reign. I truly wish Trump were not such an egotistical narcissistic bully. He could be so much more than he is if he could only reign in that ego.

  31. Avatar JP Billen says:

    Babak …
    Putin is on his way to, or perhaps already there, Saudi Arabia today. Maybe he will undercut any Trump efforts to get the Saudis to continue their war against Yemen.

  32. Avatar Stephanie says:

    I wonder how the Evangelical Christians are taking this news? First, we have this:
    “As Turkish warplanes began to bomb Syrian towns on Wednesday, the prominent evangelist Franklin Graham called for Mr. Trump to reconsider his decision, and worried that the Kurds — and the Christian minorities in the region they have defended — could be annihilated.“We have many friends in the Kurdish areas,” said Mr. Graham, whose humanitarian organization, Samaritan’s Purse, has done relief work in the region. “We know people on the ground.” The concern resonated for many conservative evangelicals who have supported Mr. Trump, and called into question his much-touted commitment to religious freedom, a top value for his base.”
    The problem is that Graham’s premise is 180 degrees off. Religious minorities are going to do far better under Assad than in any other setting. So, in the event, ultimately Evangelical Christians should and will be pleased.
    Which leaves us with the question: where did Graham’s premise come from? Well, the answer to that is clear: the rear end of Bolton et al.
    Evangelical Christians have been played like a guitar by the neocons, one could hope that they may receive a wake-up call this time. They certainly have it in their power to make it a close one in 2020.
    Oh, and where did the quote above come from? The New York Times. I read the Times and always will. But it is, when push comes to shove, a neocon rag. Judith Miller, Andrew Higgins, the recent long, long article blaming the Max 80 crashes on brown-skinned pilot error, on and on. Good old Punch Sulzberger.

  33. Avatar JP Billen says:

    Good to see that the agreement includes a future SAA/Kurdish collaboration on the liberation of Afrin. In addition to Maki’s comment that Afrin part of the deal was confirmed by Salih Muslim, one of the most prominent members of the Syrian Kurds.
    Salih also claimed:
    – that Syrian troops will be deployed from Derik (near the Iraqi border) to the Euphrates and they will raise the Syrian flag to represent the Syrian state and sovereignty with their presence along the border.
    – that the Kurds would do the bulk of the fighting in Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn.
    – that Russia and the SAF would close the Syrian airspace for Turkish aircraft and stop the air strikes.
    – and responding to Trump’s tweet that “Kurds may be releasing some to get us involved”, he said: “We didn’t release anyone. Those who managed to flee have escaped due to Turkish shelling of the camp and prisons. For instance, surroundings of the Ain Issa prison and camp were bombed. There were also US troops in Ain Issa. Why were they silent while the Turks bombarded the camp and prison, why didn’t they stop the Turks? It doesn’t serve anyone to criminalize the Kurds.”
    https://anfenglishmobile.com/features/salih-muslim-talks-about-the-agreement-with-the-syrian-state-38404

  34. Avatar Fred says:

    Reuters is reporting that Merkel called Erdogan and told him to stop his aggression.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey-germany-idUSKBN1WS0H9
    “The phone call took place at Erdogan’s request, she said.”
    Courage in action. I can’t wait to see the transcript of that phone call. I wonder how many refugess going, or not going, to Europe were discussed.

  35. Avatar Jose says:

    Stephanie, Franklin Graham should focus his attention on his fellow crusader Jerry Falwell Jr who had been seen hobnobbing with a young&gay Miami pool boy. So much for Evangelical ‘Values’.
    Source is your NYT, so take it ‘cum grano salis’. But they got it from the Miami papers so I’m a believer.

  36. Avatar jonst says:

    Oh for god’s sake you have shouting since I’ve been on this site the US wants a war with Iran. So in the long run what has this to do with Trump? As for Israel and Islam, what, in the end, does this have to do with Trump except he is the latest temporary rider on this bus that has been on a long, long journey (centuries now)? Trump commits to nothing or no one for a ‘long time’ except towards his own interests…as long as they remain his interests. To me, I’m relatively happy he said he would meet with Iranian Leaders unconditionally…if that is accurate, then good for him. If the Iranians reject the offer, good for them too! That’s there business. Their mistake I think…but there business.

  37. Avatar elaine says:

    JP Billen, I think you’re on to something. Yesterday there was a photo on
    JPost of Putin in a 3 way handshake with Erdogan & Rouhani & today there’s
    a blurp claiming Netanyahu is forming some kind of agreement with Saudi Arabia.

  38. Avatar Babak Makkinejad says:

    What has that got to do with Trump?
    I suppose he is just a powerless by-stander, as you claim.
    And his threts to sanction Turkey and destroy her economy are just-so stories?
    You best wakeup and smell the coffee.

  39. Avatar Babak Makkinejad says:

    Ayatollah Khamenei hss stated 2 things over the last 8 days: that Iran will never build nuclear weapons and de-escalation must start from the termination of Yemen War. Will Gulfies and US grasp those and build upon them? Babak says they won’t.

  40. Avatar JP Billen says:

    Of course Trump won’t. He is owned by Israel. But perhaps Putin has instilled a little common sense in Riyadh and in Abu Dhabi. Will they build on that? Probably not, but maybe he’ll calm them down a bit? No way they only talked oil prices.

  41. Avatar jonst says:

    MOST of Trump’s short lived announcements are “just so stories”, if I understand that phrase correctly. And HE IS as powerless a President as we’ve seen in my life time. He has 80% of the govt sabotaging him. THE Resistance thinks they do so with justification. Perhaps, for their perspective. From mine it looks like a rolling coup, with profound implications for the future. But in any event, he is a weak, vacillating, President. You should recognize the type…sorta like Rouhani, a man whose ‘orders’ are followed only if the real power approves.

  42. Avatar Babak Makkinejad says:

    You cannot be serious about him being powerless.

  43. Avatar confusedponderer says:

    Fred,
    Erdogan has already answered that he doesn’t care about Merkel’s call.
    He then insulted our foreign secretary, called for unconditional NATO support and told Trump that, despite Trump’s “great and unmatched wisdom” and acute sanctionitis, he doesn’t care about sanctions because Turkey is super strong and that he and Turkey will fight on … of course till to the Endsieg.
    It would be the utmost disaster if Erdogan’s illegally intervening in Syria would invite Syrian or Russian retaliation.
    That then would be a case of an attack on a NATO country … despite the obvious provocation.
    All that to fix Sevres treaty territory losses and late lamentations over losing WW-I losses, all that while salso en passant wreck up and Islamistise and de-kurd north Syria??!
    Such things never were a goal of NATO and never should and hopefully will be, despite Erdogan or Trump.
    Erdogan plays with fire, and the kurds are just the unhappy first ones to get burned. IMO Erdogan probably cannot be talked out of this, likely also because it is a big ego thing for him.
    To calm him down will require some serious armtwisting likely beyond Pence’s and O’Brien’s capability and Trump’s arbitrary (Great emergency!!! = Trumpy solo act) reinstation of that 50% penal tax on turkish steel.
    IMO Putin will likely be more successful there because he has much more leverage, and probably generally invests more time and effort in thinking and listens to advisors.

  44. Avatar elaine says:

    Rudaw.net was the 1st to report followed by Fox News VP Pence has negotiated a
    120 hour cease fire to accommodate the withdrawal of the YPG

  45. Avatar JP Billen says:

    Elaine –
    I agree with TTGs comment. Plus my guess is this is a ploy by Erdogan. He knows full well the SDF and YPG will NOT withdraw while his Turkish supported jihadis are looting, burning, and raping. And he may be getting leery of the large SAA force building up at Ain Issa, which is not far at all from his forces in Tel Abyad (Gire Spi). That force now includes tanks and MLRS and is less than 45 kilometers.

  46. Avatar seward says:

    History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.

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