What’s happening with the Russian economy? Logistics market is a good indicator. Consider the freight rates. Since late February they fell by 30-40%. For example, according to the freight exchange ATI.SU, rates on the Moscow-St Petersburg direction fall by 34,3%. Moscow – St Petersburg highway connects the largest city of the country with its main seaport. It is for Russia what Camino Real (Mexico-Veracruz) was for the Colonial Mexico. With the St. Petersburg seaport traffic decreasing almost by half, there’s much less to deliver.
How much did the freight rates fall across Russia? Estimates vary, plus rates on different directions probably fall unevenly. Most common estimates would vary between 30-40%, with some (Oboz company) giving as low estimates as 25% and some (Deliver company) giving as high as 50%. The fall in the freight rate reflects the general decrease in the interregional trade. There’s now much less to ship = the rates are falling. And yet, the actual costs of freight are skyrocketing for the shortage of trucks and spare parts. The cost of the latter increased by 70%.
The import dependence of Russian truck companies may look surprising considering that on paper Russia import substituted greatly. Theoretically, most Russian trucks are either Russian (Kamaz, GAZ, ZIL, Ural) or Belarusian-produced (MAZ). Consider the figures for December 2021. In practice Russian car industry is fully import dependent. Consider this interview with a leader of a trade union on the AvtoVAZ automobile manufacturer. All the machine tools, all the instruments, all the equipment is imported. And it is imported *not* from China. Many misunderstand the role of China in the world economy. They confuse it being the largest industrial exporter with being the most important exporter of *everything*. For example it exports far less machine tools than one would expect. Germany is more important in this respect.
What information can we draw from the Russian freight market data? First of all, we are seeing as the enormous country is gradually losing its cohesion. Consider that all three means of transport: airways, automobiles and even the railways are heavily import dependent.
The situation with freight rates falling by 30-40% and the spare parts prices increasing by 70% is unsustainable especially considering that the average truck in Russia is 21 years old. Very soon communicating or trading with faraway provinces will turn into a major problem. Furthermore, the freight data allows us to track the main smuggling channels that Russia is now using. While demand on most directions is falling there is one direction with a skyrocketing demand (more than +100%). It’s Georgia. Ergo, it is the major smuggling channel now.
I took the figures on the Russia freight market dynamics from here. Overall, I consider the RBC to be a highly reliable source on the Russian economy.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1533800802657124352.html
Comment: Galeev’s sources are all in the linked thread. He makes a couple of interesting points. The first is fairly straightforward. The second is more esoteric and tenuous, but I think he may be on to something.
First, Russia’s transportation sector will slowly collapse. The freight market is drying up from lack of foreign imports leading to less to transport internally. Shipping prices are dropping. The supply of repair parts is drying up. Parts that are available are skyrocketing in price. All this will lead to layoffs and bankruptcies across the sector.
Second, the transportation network that knits the far flung Russian empire together will unravel. This is one of Galeev’s great hopes. Granted, Russia is a security state with strong, centralized control mechanisms, but a severely weakened transportation sector could lead to a loosening of national cohesion. Many Russian states and regions may learn to go it alone without the strong control and direction from Moscow that an efficient transportation network enables. They may learn to like being on their own.
I don’t think these problems will show up until much later in the year. On the other hand, the Russians are a tough and resourceful people. They may adjust while keeping their “multi-culti” nation together as a cohesive whole.
TTG
Yeah, Russia has been through far worse. This is nothing to those people. CCP and India will eventually close the gaps. I’m more worried about the US with people moaning and groaning about $20 In & Out burger meals as they put it on their credit cards. Nobody really knows what happens when people with them sugar diabetes II get violent and angry but we are going to find out together….
Has Gamil done one one the US transportation sector, with a callout on the 100% increase on ethanol per gallon of fuel and the destructive impact on small engines and engines built prior to 2001? The fall out from that is happening now.
Fred,
I doubt the nation will crumble because you might have to replace your 20+ year old lawn mower. Having said that, I agree that ethanol has no valid reason for being in our gas. That’s what happens when Big Ag and politicians collude.
TTG,
Ethanol policies are simply the enforcement of the left’s climate change religion on the supply chain, to the enrichment of factory farmed corn growers and a hand full of refiners, and the detriment of those who work elsewhere. The rainbow flags everywhere this month are another of the left’s religous mandates being imposed, like it or not. But by all means wave away the results because politicians collude, but never Barack or Biden or any on the left.
Fred,
Ethanol use began in the 1970s. Ethanol policies began in earnest because we learned lead and MTBE were poisoning our air and water. It was Bush’s Energy Policy Act of 2005 that federally mandated and kick started the change. US history didn’t begin with Obama. Now the push for E15 and beyond can be laid at Obama’s and the ethanol lobby’s feet.
Which is it TTG, is Russia an “empire” or a nation? If it is the former would you describe Alaska, your erstwhile home of Hawaii, or perhaps Texas as parts of the far flung American empire? Also, would you take a bet that a state or region in Russia decides to go it alone before this happens in the multi-culti US?
Barbara Ann,
Russia is, by definition, a political nation. but that nation encompasses almost all of what was once referred to as the Russian Empire. That empire encompasses a wide variety of cultures, languages and religions. It’s as if we didn’t damn near wipe out our indigenous peoples and now had to deal with them as local majorities. We may find out if the Muscogee Creek Nation decides to truly push their ownership of eastern Oklahoma.
TTG,
“…we didn’t damn near wipe out our indigenous peoples and now had to deal with them as local majorities. ”
How are you determining victim and oppressor in your little scenario? How many decades will the guilt trip last?
Not assigning victim and oppressor roles. The indigenous people lost and the immigrants won. Replacement theory in action. That’s just historical fact.
I just took what TTG said as being descriptive. No victim, oppressor or guilt was mentioned or implied, as far as I can see.
I am not sure what your point is. Are you saying we didn’t just about wipe out the Indians?
jerseycityjoan,
“We” How many did you kill off? I know, none. There’s no guilt implied? Have you forgotten that brave Indian warrior Nathan Phillips and the whole staged media narrative with the kids from Covington? Not heard anthing said from AOC and the squad, or Ibrahim Kendi X and the Harvard crowd on the left? Where have your been for the last couple of decades, or do you not pay attention to the narritivce on the left?
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/21/us/nathan-phillips-maga-teens-interview/index.html
TTG,
“Replacement theory in action.”
So the modern line “immigration is our strength” is actually replacement theory in action?
Two thoughts:
I) From a recent video made by an American in his small convenience store in Moscow:
a) Russians have no shortage of baby milk (that’s for the USA).
b) They have a huge selection of cooking, salad and frying oils (that’s for Europeans).
The prices are about half of what my wife pays, except for a luxury olive oil at 7 euros /420 rubles) per liter, same price here. (She does not buy).
We can’t exclude a maskirovska, especially since the store was not very busy.
II) Good news for Ukrainians. Their enemy is crumbling. They will win.
Otherwise, as usual, one can think that Russian problems are currently more easily solved than Ukrainian ones. The holy mother Russia will always be able to cope with the failures and shortcomings of her children, as she has always done in the past. The process is neither fast nor economical in human life, but she has been getting by since immemorial times.
d74,
What I noticed in that video was that the shelves were fully stocked like like it was a Potemkin store. That no one was in there didn’t seem too odd. It was close to closing time.
I’m sure Galeev is correct, however your conclusion regarding the imminent collapse of the freight sector is premature because you need to consider the various time horizons of the parts of the economy.
What happens in every market economy, including Russia and China, is that demand will be met by import substitution. For the trucking industry that will start with consumables like batteries, tyres, filters, etc and the demand trickles through the system from there. For example oil filters require special papers filter media – there will be some company in Russia or China already making it or is going to have to make it if they don’t already. Lead acid Battery technology is easy and well understood, same with tyres of average performance. As for the rest it’s just a matter of time. There is very little that cannot be substituted.
The nitty gritty that takes a little longer is the tooling industry and the machine tool industries. They rely on precision measuring capabilities and advanced metallurgy for cutting tools. I’m sure the Russians have the capacity to build what they need, even if they are buying it from abroad at the moment. I am talking of five plus axis machine tools and the carbide cutting inserts for high speed machining. They are the foundations of an industrial economy. A few videos….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdciRX0lol0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqePrbeAQoM
walrus,
I’m also sure that given time, the Russian economy can adjust. They were largely self-sufficient in the Soviet days. In the meantime, they’re SOL for repair parts for their transportation sector. They’ve also become dependent on Western sources for their tooling and electronic industries. That’ll take years to replicate. That excerpt of an interview with the AvtoVAZ trade union leader mentioned all this.
BTW, my father was a tool maker and one of my brothers followed in his footsteps. I’ve always been in awe of the tool making trade. Of course, I never liked amusement rides like rollercoasters. All I can think about is metal fatigue.
TTG,
Having worked in automotive for two decades I can second Walrus’ point that there are plenty of alternatives already in the marketplace for all the consumable repair parts and most of the rest. Plenty of Western European companies are going to lose whatever revenue stream they had based on Russia business, which probably wasn’t much. Most of that was already in Asia.
Fred,
There are plenty of alternatives, but most are also in the West. China and maybe India can provide some if they choose to do so, although I don’t know if they have the capacity to do so. China has been somewhat reluctant to provide much more than lip service to Moscow. They don’t want to jeopardize their existing trade relations with the West.
TTG,
Your information on the global automotive aftermarket is woefully out of date. China concerned with jeopardizing their existing trade relations with the US? They’ve been engaged in overt economic warfare against the West for the past few years.
Fred,
And the goal of China’s overt economic warfare is to supplant our position in the world economy, not isolate herself from that economy. China has refused a direct request from Moscow to supply rockets and missiles to the war effort. China and India demanded a cut in the price of Russian oil before taking it. They’re taking advantage of Russia, not rallying to her side.
Oh please, this is getting sad, Russia is making $10´s of billions per month in exports, it mostly produces its own industrial equipment. It like the USA can buy what it dose not make from China. Kamil Galeev is talking BS, if he was correct there would be mass starvation in Russia. There is not therefore he is wrong.
joe90,
Listen to the interview of the AvtoVAZ trade union leader. Russia and the transportation industry in particular, is far from self-sufficient.
Could you just justify what you say. I don´t have to listen to his BS because as I said, if he was right, and this is for every country, their would be mass scale starvation. You have 30% drop in transportation in 3 months and people die. Everything breaks down. If I cannot get you flour, you cannot make bread, Wallmarts shelves are empty.
Read
The Wages Of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy
to get an idea on large scale logistics and what happens when things break down.
Also I think you can get that as a free to read download so unlike me, you don´t even have to by the book.
Do you remember the 90´s when the USSR collapsed? Not even then did they suffer what you are predicting!
Also the Russians don´t have a “multi-culti” nation, that is just projection. Yes they have many different peoples but the have a Russian culture created by those different peoples.
“I don’t think these problems will show up until much later in the year.”
OK, we have 6 months to go, if you are right, you are right, lets see and remember your prediction.
joe90,
Even if the Russian transportation industry does collapse, that won’t diminish locally grown food. Sure you won’t get strawberries and bananas in the middle of a Siberian winter, but there’s always potatoes, beets, cabbage and buckwheat. If anything it’s healthier.
So you think Moscow has finally created the new Soviet man. Buryats, Tatars, Bashkirs and others are not the Slavs of Moscow and Saint Petersburg. It’s a multi-culti nation.
The Lithuanian-American talks about Tatars, doesn’t he realise that there are several groups of Tatars? My in-laws are Siberian Tatars, they cannot understand Tatarstan Tatars, and barely understand Crimean Tatars. But they are proud Rossiane!
Peter Williams,
There are Lithuanian Tatars as well, the Lipka Tatars. They’ve been there since both peoples were pagans. I’ve wrote about them. They consider themselves proud Lithuanians, but they still maintain their own culture, although they’re now Islamic in a majority Catholic country.
Your last comment contained some good points and had reasonable arguments. If you want to discuss it, try doing so without childish name calling. Take an example from Fred. We can get quite acerbic in our discussions/arguments, but we do it in a civil manner and usually with a modicum of class.
Peter W –
Tyumen Oblast, which has a great many Siberian Tatars, just had a suspected arson event at the parking garage of the Regional Parliament building last weekend. So perhaps some of those Siberian Tatars are not so proudly Rossiane. But I’m sure Putin’s captive press are blaming the fire on Ukrainian lightning.
By the way Kamil Galeev who originally wrote the account on Russia’s Transportation Sector is a a proud Tatar. He is from Kazan in the Russian Republic of Tatarstan.
I spent 11 years in the trucking industry and from what I see now, the main problem in the US is getting enough drivers. I would not suggest importing Russians, as one of the companies I was leased to, did. This one fellow would not let anyone know what he was doing, so he did not report important info like where he picked up trailers, or which ones.
I have thought for some time now, that it will not be long before Russia gets into real problems and I have also thought it would come from their east, where there are less ethnic Russians and tribal urges get stronger.
“And yet, the actual costs of freight are skyrocketing for the shortage of trucks and spare parts. The cost of the latter increased by 70% ”
What, so prices are going down while going up?
“In practice Russian car industry is fully import dependent. ”
That is just BS, I do not know how else to reply than that is just a lie.
Yet again lets wait 6 months and see, the BS is so tiring, it is hardly worth bothering with. The Russians themselves admit they are going to have at least 10% inflation this year, is that not bad enough? OK compared to Brandon, it is probably good.
joe90,
Fuel prices are staying the same even though the price of oil has dropped dramatically. That dropped because China and India will only buy Russian oil at steep discounts. Freight company profits are also way down because there is just less to ship and the carriers have to drop prices to chase after what little there is to ship.
The Russian car giant Lada had to shut down production shortly after sanctions kicked in due to a lack of Western parts. It’s not like the Soviet days when Lada produced all its cars with Soviet parts.
The Russians already have 17% inflation, even with fuel prices not rising at all.
TTG,
the official inflation rate in the US is 8.9% as announced today. Here is the 3 month oil price chart, which doesn’t match what you are saying about oil:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
China and India are getting discounts on Russian oil? How about the NATO countries still importing it, are they paying full price? Destroying our own middle class to teach Russia a lesson about their naked war of agression seems like a rather stupid way to go about it, other than for politicians who will pay no prices and an aristocracy of money that will only get richer as wealth becomes even more concentrated in their hands.
Fred,
That price chart is for non-Russian oil, probably the Brent crude oil price. The price for Russian Ural crude is much lower. Xi is kicking Putin while he’s down by buying up Russian Ural at a 30% discount, around $78.9 per barrel. That’s hovering around the break even point for Russian Ural. Xi’s even filling up China’s reserve supplies while the price is so low. I can’t find what Europe currently pays for Russian per barrel.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/the-deepening-discounts-on-russian-oil-in-the-country-s-own-data
https://fortune.com/2022/05/20/russia-ural-oil-price-china-india-buying-discount/
The Russian inflation rate is now at 17%.
TTG,
WTI crude is $120 a barrel, up 50+% in 6 months. Gas is $4.80/gallon here, Putin isn’t the reason, and he isn’t going away any time soon; nor is inflation in the USA transitory like the left said months ago. Our middle class will be gone long before Russia leaves Ukraine.
Break even point?
If the Russians were comfortable with $40 in 2020 $79 is just fine.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/breakeven-crude-oil-production-costs-085329648.html
“Russia- Output costs may not matter as much in the west
Russia is an enigma when it comes to the cost of production for the energy commodity. The Russians, under President Vladimir Putin, is structured as an oligarchy. A small group runs the nation’s economy. Therefore, the production cost of crude oil is an enigma and a state secret. In 2020, the Russian leader had said that he is comfortable with a Brent price around the $40 per barrel level. The statement could shed at least some light on the price level for the energy commodity that provides enough revenue to keep the system running smoothly.”
No middle class is going to be destroyed.
High oil prices will be a problem for a few years until new production comes on-line around the world and investment in energy savings will also play a role. In ten years things will be back to normal.
The same with the idea of collapsing the Russian economy that is also not going to happen. However the long-term growth potential will be significantly reduced so 30-40 years from now it will have a big impact. There are a lot of trading patterns that will be changed for good due to the war.
Poul,
Glad to know you can survive a decade with fuel prices 100% higher than two years ago and inflation running double digits. Where will all the ‘around the world’ production come from since the western nations are all ‘climate change’ preventing new investment, or haven’t you noticed?
Fred, Did people survive the 1970’s?
It’s the same situation. That a US galleon of unleaded 95 gasoline has gone up to ca. $9,84 in Denmark is not going to be the end of the world. People will adjust their consumption. Drive less, buy smaller cars ect. until the market conditions change again.
Energy today is a smaller input cost in the global economy than back in the 70’s. The biggest issue is the Third World countries.
IMO it would be sensible to cut the Russian sanctions some slack for those countries.
Poul,
Lots of people in the US were driven into poverty in the ’70s. This is already worse. Too bad for third worlder’s believing the IMF/WB/WEF and all the rest give a damn about them.
Fred,
But only a short term decline. Not a permanent one.
In Denmark the two oil crisis’ meant we found new way to improve energy consumption in industry and the heating of households and have had sensible policies for decades to improve energy efficiency. Something to US can easily do too.
As for Russia, we are going though an economic adjustment in global trading pattern which will be painful for both the West and Russia plus countries caught in the economic crossfire, but long term the Russian economy will suffer most. Not necessarily as a decline in size but in the form of lower future growth rates.
Russian GDP will be much lower in 30-40 years time with sanctions than without. And as the economy is the basis on which you fund your armed forces Russia will have less money available or will have to tax harder to spend the same. (something that also have negative impacts on the Russian economy).
I’m willing to pay the cost of such a long term commitment to undermining the Russian economy. So we’ll just have to agree to disagree on the sanctions policy.
“What, so prices are going down while going up?”
Some go down; some go up. Life is complicated. There is no such thing as “prices”.
Try going to a shop.
They are likely to have developing and worsening problems sourcing all the various ingredients that go into consumables, both for things like engine oils and greases, and more fundamentally everything they need to actually make stuff – metalworking fluids, way lubes, rust prevention products, and so on. It would perhaps be possible to take a step back and formulate these using only molecules that can be synthesized entirely domestically, but (i) that will cause a huge performance hit, and (ii) reformulating all that would be a massive job. (This is a large part of what I do professionally, and it’s already a massive ongoing headache to deal with all the supply chain disruptions right now, without even thinking about anything like sanctions or rebuilding whole product lines from scratch.)
They probably will be able to accommodate the lack of modern raw materials to some extent, but they’re going to take a huge hit in terms of performance, both for stuff like engine oils (think drain intervals going to every 500 miles) and all the manufacturing consumables (they’ll be back in the 1950s in terms of manufacturing capacity).
TTG,Are you aware that the Navaho reservation in the four corners area on the US,mostly AZ ,is larger than the 3 smallest states of New England combined.Native Americans have plenty of land……………………If at the end of WW2 the United States had paid every Navaho a handsome sum of money to live elsewhere in the US ,paid all expenses to resettle them together ,and settled the same number of European Jews ,,taking into account ages,genders etc..Do you have any doubt that reservation would be thriving today?………….Probably more prosperous than 90 % of our states……It is not in the land ,it is in the man………………Of course they would probably be fighting with neighbor states some………………..DNA trumps all
The fetish* of Severodonetsk – TTG
TTG
You posted that 5 days ago and you were supremely wrong, how many time do you need to be wrong before you listen to people who don´t make your mistakes?
joe90,
How is that wrong. Both sides are still there, killing and dying in great numbers. It does appear Severodonetsk has become a fetish to both Russia and Ukraine.
“How is that wrong. ”
Your article described a Ukrainian “counter-offensive” in Severodonetsk that was simply a figment of the imagination.
Even ISW – who normally cling to the Ukrainian narrative as stubbornly as you do – did an abrupt about-face in their report dated June 6th when journalist Yuri Butusov visited Severodonetsk and called BS on the Ukrainian claims that they managed to retake anything.
“Both sides are still there, killing and dying in great numbers.”
Congratulations on fitting so many untruths into such a short sentence.
Ukrainian forces have been ejected from all residential areas, and are penned into a same industrial zone: Mariupol writ large.
And being penned up in there the Russians can blast them out with artillery.
So “both sides” are still there in the same way that prisoners and guards are “both” going to be found inside a prison. But there is to equivalence between the two.
And while there is “killing and dying in great numbers” going on it is a thoroughly one-sided encounter with the Grim Reaper.
Honestly, it’s hard to come to any other conclusion that that everything you think you know about Severodonetsk is… wrong.
I guess that is what happens when you trust a guy like Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai.
ISW also trusted that dude, but they wised up pretty quickly.
You, well, you not so much.
We are watching our civilization fall apart in realtime and you are worried about “national cohesion” in Russia?
I think America is much further down the rabbithole than a country that is led by a Christian, conservative that opposes the new globalist order.
Just my humble opinion.
plantman
Yes, we are watching our civilization fall apart in real time. I wonder if it would stop if we looked away.
As far as Putin opposing the new globalist order goes, here is an argument to the contrary:
https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/yes-russia-is-complicit-in-the-great
PM I can understand what you say but why does that Christian conservative have to invade a neighbor and kill its people?
Bill..
Because He Wanted Too…At that Point…Zelinsky and China were The High Roller Gamers in Ukraine at that time…The Chinese Were buying everyting …Like They Do All over the World…All Tech and Mineral Resources etc..
They Would have Exclusive Contracts on The Corn and Grains..And had Large Pig Farms in Operation There..
Reports Say Putin Was Told he had Cancer in April..That could have been a Very Strong Motivation..also..He Was Possibly saving Ukraine from The Pagans..In His Mind..
One only has to read the Ukraine/China storys and Headlines from 2021 To See Why Putin Reacted..
He Had Enough..
JT
I see the problem here a little differently. I was once privileged to work for government in the field of industry attraction and development as well as working earlier as a corporate strategy consultant with a major accounting firm and also in aerospace and defence. I spent some time doing industrial capability work as well.
The idea that “we will stop selling gizmos to Russia and it will hurt them “ is both childish and counterproductive. The reason is summed up by Neitzche: “what doesn’t kill me makes me stronger”.
The strength of an economy is measured not only by its size, but it’s breadth in terms of range of products produced and it’s depth, the number of producers in each industry category. That is why some countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran perhaps, even Australia and South America are economically minnows. They either don’t have the range or the depth or both. Hold this thought.
Now think about production; is it for internal use or for export? When you look at America it has huge range and depth and most production is for domestic use.
Now think about China, it started with an export oriented economy – making cheap rubber dog turds if you like, but has now increased the range of products it produces enormously. What people don’t get is that the bulk of its production is now for domestic consumption, not export and that therefore threats of sanctions or buying American mean nothing. They don’t need you as a customer anymore. Their economy is now self sustaining.
We see this in action – Europe won’t buy Russian oil and gas – fine! we will sell it to India and China instead! No problem!
Russia has very very considerable high tech capabilities but maybe not the depth that China has in some areas, but between them there is virtually nothing they can’t produce. All we have done through sanctions is stimulate them to fill in the minor capability gaps they have.
It is also, I think, a western conceit to imagine that their substitute products will be cheap inferior copies. I have a feeling that we will be surprised and then undone by what we have wrought. You see only a hint of Russia and Chinas capacity for advanced products, Some of the hints I recall were some very advanced industrial ceramics invented by Chinese and some very clever aviation engineering by Russians.
The Ruble is going great thanks to strategic planning:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-06-10/harvard-economists-baffled-how-gold-tied-russian-ruble-goes
The question for all, which nation is going to fall apart first, the Russia Federation or the United states of America…
Jose,
I doubt either will fall apart. We in the US are in for some rough times, but I believe Russia is in for a world of shit if the Western coalition stays together.
It’s 1988 all over again. Russia’s economy is imploding while the U.S. soars to the heavens on the wings of angels.
If what you are saying is correct TTG then Zelensky is dictating terms to Russia for their surrender. Crimea and Donbas going back to Ukraine is a given. The only thing left to decide are the prison terms for Russian POW’s
BTW how is Ukraine’s economy doing? What is the inflation rate of Russia vs the U.S?
CJC,
Ukraine’s economy is in the crapper as one would expect of a country under constant bombardment for over three months and in the midst of fighting off an invading army. It’s a wonder they still manage to ship out any grain as they’ve done. Russia’s inflation rate is 17% compared to ours which reached 8.6% today. Russia’s inflation was worse than that before she invaded Ukraine.
“Russia’s inflation rate is 17% compared to ours which reached 8.6% today. ”
Anyone who thinks that the USA’s real inflation rate is still in single-digits is capable of believing anything.
WPO,
Edited it for you:
“Anyone who thinks that the USA’s real inflation rate is in double- digits is capable of believing anything”
>>>Ukraine’s economy is in the crapper as one would expect of a country under constant bombardment for over three months and in the midst of fighting off an invading army<<<
I agree. This damned war cannot end soon enough for me.
The real tell on Russia's economy will be whether or not they fold their tents. If Russia perseveres against the sanctions we have no intention of lifting, it will indicate that either our view of their economy is wrong or the Russians are willing to pay the price to ever going back to the Yeltsin era.