If you’re just joining us, India has attacked nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir on Wednesday with at least three deaths reported. Pakistan has said it was mounting a response as the worst fighting in years erupted between the two countries. Armies of the nuclear-armed neighbours have also exchanged intense shelling and heavy gunfire across their frontier in disputed Kashmir in at least three places, police and witnesses told the Reuters news agency. The offensive has occurred amid heightened tensions in the aftermath of an attack on Hindu tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last month. Islamist assailants killed 26 men in the 22 April attack, the worst such violence targeted at civilians in India in nearly two decades.
India said it struck “terrorist infrastructure” where attacks against it were planned and directed. Pakistan’s defence minister has told local media that all sites targeted by India were civilian and not militant camps. Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has announced a meeting of the national security committee in Islamabad following the strikes. The strikes came just hours after Indian prime minister Narendra Modi said that water flowing across India’s borders would be stopped. Pakistan had warned that tampering with the rivers that flow from India into its territory would be an “act of war.”
Modi did not mention Islamabad specifically, but his speech came after Delhi suspended its part of the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty, which governs water critical to Pakistan for consumption and agriculture. “India’s water used to go outside, now it will flow for India,” Modi said in a speech. The Indus treaty governs the distribution and use of waters from the Indus River and its tributaries, which feed 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture and its hydropower. As well as suspending the treaty, Delhi has suspended trade with Pakistan, summoned and expelled its diplomats, and suspended visas for Pakistanis. Pakistan has also suspended all trade with India and closed its airspace to Indian airlines.
The director general of the media wing of Pakistan’s armed forces has confirmed to the Guardian that at least two jets of the Indian air force have been shot down. “I confirm that we have shot down at least two Indian Air Force jets,” said DG Lt General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry. Separately a senior security official, requesting anonymity, said that the military shot down three Indian jets. “We have shot down one jet in Bathinda, Indian Punjab province bordering with Pakistan Punjab province, and two jets in Indian occupied Kashmir in Awantipora and Akhnoor. They were in their airspace after the attacks and we had fired missiles,” said the official. He added that “India had started the conflict with its attacks on civilians in Pakistan. We had to retaliate. We had to protect our sovereignty.”
A US State Department spokesperson has said they are aware of reports of the ongoing attacks but had “no assessment to offer at this time. This remains an evolving situation and we are closely monitoring developments.” In recent days, Washington has urged the nuclear-armed neighbours to work with each other to de-escalate tensions and arrive at a “responsible solution.” US leaders, including president Donald Trump, offered support to India after the 22 April militant attack in which 26 people were killed. American officials did not directly blame Pakistan.
Analysts said last month that Washington may leave India and Pakistan on their own in the early days of the tensions, in part because it already has a lot to deal with, given US involvement in trying to reach diplomatic goals in Russia’s war in Ukraine and Israel’s war in Gaza.
South-Asia analyst Michael Kugelman has told the Associated Press that “these are some of the most high-intensity Indian strikes in Pakistan in years, and Pakistan’s response will surely pack a punch as well.” “These are two strong militaries that, even with nuclear weapons as a deterrent, are not afraid to deploy sizeable levels of conventional military force against each other. The escalation risks are real. And they could well increase, and quickly.” Kugelman notes that India’s strike on both India’s initial strikes and Pakistan’s response are already “higher up the escalatory ladder than any time in [the 2019] crisis.”
In 2019 India conducted air strikes on what it said was a militant training camp near the Pakistani town of Balakot in response to a suicide car bombing in Kashmir’s Pulwama area. Pakistan, which said the planes had bombed an empty hillside and not a camp, launched a retaliatory incursion into Indian airspace that led to a dogfight between the two air forces, leading to the capture of an Indian pilot. The situation cooled after he was released days later.
Comment: So is the future here? Is this going to be a water war with nuclear weapons? “The Guardian” is covering this with frequent updates.
TTG
What’s the political solutions:
India has put Pakistan to the wall with shutting off the water.
Pakistan has the choice of yielding and give up on Kashmir formally or the Kashmir resistance (as they would see it) as a solution. Not easy to swallow.
If Pakistan choose to fight. Nukes would be plausible as I don’t see the Pakistani army beating India’s. No water means millions of Pakistanis will die from thirst or hunger, so why not take India with them into nuclear hell? Let’s burn together.
Here the path will be decided by the personal character of Pakistan’s leadership. Will it be Death Before Dishonor or Live with the Humiliation.
Do anyone know the mindset of the Pakistani military?
Poul,
There was a terrorist attack in Kashmir recently. The usual. Crazy ass, blood thirsty muslims gunning down innocent Indian tourists who were just out for a day of family fun. I’m thinking that to some extent what is happening is similar to Israeli actions in Gaza post Oct 7 attack. Enough is enough.
The terrorists swim in the sea of the wider community, which supports them. Therefore, the sea must be drained. In this conflict it literally means draining the sea.
Hamas, these Pakistan guys, any muslim terrorist group, are not secret fringe elements at odds with the general population. Rather, they are the fighting element of the larger muslim population and its ideology. Everyone here will want to say I’m wrong and will want to defend the muslims. Ok. In that case, the Pakistani government, they guys who sheltered Bin Laden, could go into the region and clean out its own terrorist group as an act of good faith to India. But it won’t. So screw them. Let them go thirsty.
Syria and Iraq claim to be suffering severe water shortages due to the GAP development. Both countries allege that Turkey is intentionally withholding supplies from its downstream neighbors, turning water into a weapon. Turkey denies these claims, and insists it has always supplied its southern neighbors with the promised minimum of 500 m3/s (18,000 cu ft/s). It argues that Iraq and Syria in fact benefit from the regulated water by the dams as they protect all three riparian countries from seasonal droughts and floods.[20]
The Turkish government has had the greatest impact on the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers by implementing huge development projects through the construction of large-scale dams under the Southeast Anatolia Development Project (GAP) and this has affected the access and use of Tigris and Euphrates rivers in other countries. On the other hand, the division and distribution of the water of these two rivers have been regulated with few and basic treaty provisions. Turkey refuses to recognize the international nature of these rivers and considers these rivers as national rivers; however, Syria and Iraq consider these rivers as international rivers and this has led to conflicts between the countries on the banks of these rivers.
This article focuses on the effects of the GAP project, especially the effect of the Atatürk Dam and Ilisu Dam on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, and examines their compliance with international law, including existing international treaty law and customary principles of international water law.
DHI QAR, Iraq, April 30 (Reuters) – Iraq’s buffalo population has more than halved in a decade as the country’s two main rivers, the Tigris and Euphrates, suffer severe droughts that endanger the livelihood of many farmers and breeders.
“People have left … We are a small number of houses remaining,” said farmer Sabah Ismail, 38, who rears buffalo in the southern province of Dhi Qar.
Reuters is reporting 5 Indian fighters shot down – 3 Rafales, one Su-30 and one MiG-29.
Reportedly at least some of them were shot down with Chinese PL-15 long range missiles which, as far as I can tell, are more advanced than anything the US has in its publicly disclosed arsenal.
I wonder if this could be a turning point for Chinese military exporters.
James,
Don’t be too quick to believe the total count. That report is based on Pakistani claims.
TTG,
Point well taken – but that PL-15 is a formidable piece of kit.
Pakistan is in a tough spot, militarily, politically, economically, and ecologically.
Its military is much smaller than India’s, and, IIRC, hasn’t “won” any of their wars or skirmishes since the Brits left. They have The Bomb, but even without that, I doubt that India could invade and/or occupy Pakistan (and they’re probably smart enough avoid the responsibilities that would bring). OTOH, India could likely “win” most limited engagements, though I have little faith in the competence of their military and civilian leaders, either.
Politically, Pakistan is an Army which occasionally holds elections to let the people choose which Prime Minister will be deposed next. The military is presumably aligned with local Oligarchs, making it even harder to solve the country’s real problems. The Army is apparently competent at suppressing dissent.
Economically, Pakistan is drowning in debt from decades of corruption, mismanagement, and just shoveling against the tide (and kicking the can down the road). Its population has grown too large for its agricultural capacity, so it is heavily dependent on imported food, which they can only pay for by taking on more debt.
Ecologically, they are a prime example of the dangers of Global Warming. Water from melting Himalayan glaciers flooded huge regions of the country a couple years ago, wiping out the year’s crops, destroying infrastructure, and damaging their already paltry export sector. I won’t claim that the same thing will happen again this year, but it will happen again, and again, across the next few decades.
Of course, India has problems, too, (cough, Caste system, cough) but they are in much better shape economically and politically, and therefore also militarily stronger. India is a proud, ancient civilization, excited by – and burdened with – memories of grandeur. Modi’s BJP is essentially a Hindu Nationalist party claiming they will “Make India Great Again”. They have made some progress (most Indians have toilets now?), but “Nationalism” tends to spill over into military adventurism. India is feeling it’s oats, and would love to avenge centuries of Mughal dominance by kicking some Muslim butt.
This situation is very dangerous. A resurgent India – still with a big chip on its shoulder – is picking on a weaker neighbor, a nuclear armed military dictatorship teetering on the edge of Failed State status.
A sane US government would be quietly but forecefully twisting arms in India AND Pakistan, working with China to get them both to shut up and sit down. Rubio is probably smart enough to know that’s necessary, but decades of neglect – and Neocon infiltration, and rah-rah militarism – have undermined the US Dept of State by scaring away competent people who actually understand the world we live in.
Sometimes I wish I had more confidence in the power of Prayer.
Sir I take issue with your comment “Of course, India has problems, too, (cough, Caste system, cough)”. True there is a caste system in India, can you kindly show me any society I mean any society that doesn’t practice caste system? Do you really think that white rich people’s kids socialize with poor kids of black people? You know the so called First black President Obama bought a house in Martha’s wineyard and not in Harlem. By the way did you notice that press briefing for Sindhoor operation is given by Muslim and a Hindu women? They were not DEI hires but real accomplished people (one an Engineer and the other a Bio chemist). I also noticed that you mention the obvious fact that India is in a better position economically and politically. That is a very strange logic one can’t be stupid and dumb (caste system again) and at the same time intelligent to be progressing economically.
Mr. Rao…Ghank You..its Nice to See You Post again …I
Always Find Interest in The Posts in Ares like India..Fascinating Historical Culture..and Religions.. Im Agree that You have a Right
to Be sensitive to Comments by Others..Who Have NO Idea..
How Intense The Siocial Issues Are In India. I Like the People i meet here from India..My Wifes Heart Surgeon My Own Drs in the Hospital This Year..My Great Local Independent Grocery Store Owner..On Site Every Day..Very Nice Man Great Variety of Product..Frest..Top Quality..Plus a Deli..
JIM
TTG Other IT Experts..What Significance Does The
Fact These Attacks Last exactly 90 Seconds..and Are So Precise..So they Can’t Be Traced,? Is this Satellite
Look Down..with AI .. Who else Uses This Technology With Accuracy..Russia..? Who…?
JIM
Mr. Ticehurst thank you for your kind comments. I am not sure if I am sensitive to the comments regarding caste system, one has to realize that the Indian civilization goes back to atleast 5000 years of known history. What I am saying is the people have lived among themselves for all these years and developed some sort of social associations and norms. I would say mostly good because people as a whole learnt how to respect each other and have some social amicable interactions. It doesn’t mean that they are always amicable but regarding the terrorist actions by Muslims even the Muslim population condemned the act by participating enmass in the protests. Thanks
I was listening to one historian recently in regard to this entire region. He stated one could remove it almost entirely from the topic of significant world history and not miss much. The same goes for Africa and South America. I don’t think Indiana Jones even looked for anything in Africa.
babelthuap,
You may have a point from a Western or European world perspective, but Indiana Jones was all over Africa; Egypt, Morocco, the Congo, East Africa and South Africa. Africa has always been characterized as a continent of adventure.
Sir I would like to remind you before the Europeans went around the world in around 1500 AD to of the most developed and prosperous nations in the world accounting to more than 50% of world GDP were China and India. When you have people claiming to be historians preaching “one could remove it almost entirely from the topic of significant world history and not miss much.”No wonder the west is in decline and people are realzing that it is going to be Asian Century. Only time will tell
Mr. Rao..Thank ou For Continueing this Discussion..and We Have Mutual Respect.I Feel.. What You Say About Your
Social Structure..At the Grass Roots Level..Is The Same All Over The World..Thank God For Chickens and Eggs….Sir In Respect To
Indias Caste System…It Leaves India Far Behind..Many Other
Nations That Allow Freedom of Speech.Assembly..Peace Makers..
Like Mr. Ghandi..I Long Have Admired His Humble Image..White Robes..Thin..Like a Begger,,and His Round..Wire Rim Glasses.
I Think That Should Have Been the Turning Point For India ..
And Allow Freedom..Improve The Education of Those
Children..in THE Caste System..India wilk Soon Find The
Brightest and Miost Gifted..Good Minds ..Like Anyone Else.
Soon India Woukd Modernize..Find Millions Good Students
To Put into Good Education..Science..Engineering..Along
With Improving All Social Conditions..Water..Food..Hygine Etc..Etc..Best Regards Mr.Rao..I Fold My Hands..
Like Ghandi..
JIM
Mr. Ticehurst thank you for your kind comments. Regarding caste system it was found on an ancient Indian tradition of dividing the society by their functions like merchants, warriors, scholars, and labourers. If you really think about it based on rural structures of society it did make sense since a child growing around a blacksmith will be a good black smith or a child of a scolar will be good scholar since the interaction in those days were limited to a very narrow circle and children learn more from their parents rather than any where else (of course with both parents now a days working, the child is left to his/her own devices and so the malfunctioning of the society in my opinion). However over the centuries this practice has been calcified and turned into a regimented caste system. What I think people don’t understand is, if a person grows up as blacksmith’s child how can he become a scholar though he might have been schooled by a scholar? It is difficult since his environment doesn’t permit such a growth. I am talking about rural India.
Since the independence of India in 1947 India practiced a reservation system of at least 50% seats in all professional educational system with higher preference for lower castes. This system after 80 years of Independence, still prevails in India, you might consider this as an equivalent of DEA but it is still merit based even for the lower caste students. This also prevails in the employment for Government jobs as well.
You will be surprised how many of these lower caste people have risen up in the society and hold important positions in science technology politics as well. The President of India is a Tribal Woman who fought for equality of women. If you look at the reform of caste system on a generational level I would say it has gone through two generations. I hope by the third generation people it will disappear as a system. But like tribal connections or even racial connections (white people do respect blacks/brown people but find it hard to swallow their kith and kin marrying a different race, and the same goes for blacks as well I think). So people will find equality of all peolple but hard to give their racial/class/caste identity. My two cents. Thanks
Mr. Rao…I finally had an opportunity To Read Your Reply..For Which I Thank You…I am glad
for your updates on Your social and Political Issues. Im am Glad You Reminded Me Your
President was a Woman..I Have Seen her on TV but Forgot Her Background..and
You Educated Me Alot about That..Thank You..
As Far As Your Points/Opinions on Racial Biases
That All MUST END..I am A White Skinned
“Human Being.” .As The American Indians..
Would Say..So is My Wife..But..Our Granddaughter Is Half Hispanic.Son Is Her Son..
and Her Companiion is Full Blooded AZTEC Blood ..Of The South American Aztec/Inca Olomec He is a Good..Hard Worker..Dependable…So is Our Grand daughter
My Wife and I attend a Local Church For the Homeless…Our Pastor Is A Good.Devout Man..
He is Black..and We LOVE Him..
JIM
Muralidhar,
I have read the Vedas and Upanishads and occasionally re-read sections, especially material in the Ten Principal Upanishads. The Yoga Sutras are my favorite reading from your part of the globe. It all indicates a highly advanced societal foundation long before Europeans could barely string together a series of grunts, let alone produce literature.
You are the most recent fruit of an ancient, proud tradition. Woke condemnation of your culture, because of the caste system, is typical of those critics who, on the path to their utopian day zero, like to tear down long standing structure by applying their modern values – which they narcissisticly assume are universal objective truths – to aspects of history, which they also magnify.
Mr. Newhill thank you for your kind comments. To be honest with you I have not studied Vedas or Upanishads and will be greatful for your kind suggestions as to which books to study. I learnt one thing in my life, to be a Hindu is to be a seeker of Truth and from which one can obtain Wisdom. Thank you again.
Muralidhar,
I just mentioned on the Pope thread that, in my opinion, the conversations between Arjuna and Krishna are right at the top of the list of practical advice on how to live a spiritual and material life simultaneously. You are no doubt familiar with that Gita?
Mr. Newhill thank you for your kind reply. Yes I am aware of Bhagawad Gita. I read it often very illuminating regarding life and death. I try to live by its teachings which is essentially doing the right thing and not expecting results/rewards. Just doing one’s own duty. Thanks again
Muralidhar Penumarthy Rao,
I also like how Krishna brings Arjuna to understand that he must kill his usurping relatives and assume the throne – even though it is a tough ugly thing to do, it is still the right thing to do and better than the alternative of letting crooks have what is not theirs, become bad rulers AND failing to do one’s duty. No turning the other cheek nonsense. No passivity. No giving of what is rightfully his to others who neither earned it, nor were fated to it.
I further like the discussions around the immortal soul; like how if Arjuna kills these bad guys, they aren’t really dead. They are just alive in the non-physical dimensions. They continue to live. Humans have no ability to create, nor destroy life, etc. – and how all of that is linked to doing one’s duty (dharma) as well as Karma.
It’s all a fascinating discussion and one I believe is very much grounded in fact and truth.
Iran under pressure as bombshell new revelations put nuclear deal at risk
Iran has been significantly expanding its covert nuclear weapons development since 2009, it has emerged. New intelligence uncovered by Iranian opposition group NCRI reveals that the regime’s Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) is running a secret programme to boost nuclear warhead capability, including mounting them on ballistic missiles able to strike targets over 1,900 miles away. The revelations come as Tehran prepares for a fourth round of proposed nuclear talks with the US in Muscat next week, with experts predicting they may derail negotiations.
by Marco Giannangeli • 9h
People’s Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI/MEK
Iran hostage crisis
Various leftist student groups also supported the taking of hostages at the US embassy.[62][63][64] The embassy take-over was aimed at strengthening the new regime against liberal elements in the government, portraying the regime as a “revolutionary force” while winning over the major following that the People’s Mojahedin of Iran had amongst students in Iran.[65] According to scholar Daniel Pipes, writing in 1980, the Marxist-leaning leftists and the Islamists shared a common antipathy toward market-based reforms under the late Shah, and both subsumed individualism, including the unique identity of women, under conservative, though contrasting, visions of collectivism. Accordingly, both groups favored the Soviet Union over the United States in the early months of the Iranian Revolution.[66] The Soviets, and possibly their allies Cuba, Libya, and East Germany, were suspected of providing indirect assistance to the participants in the takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran. The Palestine Liberation Organization under Yasser Arafat provided personnel, intelligence liaisons, funding, and training for Khomeini’s forces before and after the revolution and was suspected of playing a role in the embassy crisis.[67] Fidel Castro reportedly praised Khomeini as a revolutionary anti-imperialist who could find common cause between revolutionary leftists and anti-American Islamists. Both expressed disdain for modern capitalism and a preference for authoritarian collectivism.[68] Cuba and its socialist ally Venezuela, under Hugo Chávez, would later form ALBA in alliance with the Islamic Republic as a counter to neoliberal American influence.
Abrahamian, Ervand (1989), The Iranian Mojahedin. Yale University Press. p. 196. ISBN 978-0300052671
People’s Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI/MEK
Iran hostage crisis
Various leftist student groups also supported the taking of hostages at the US embassy.[62][63][64] The embassy take-over was aimed at strengthening the new regime against liberal elements in the government, portraying the regime as a “revolutionary force” while winning over the major following that the People’s Mojahedin of Iran had amongst students in Iran.
This article seems a good attempt to put the conflict over Kashmir in some perspective:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/05/rising-tensions-resurface-pakistans-credibility-problem-and-indias-backfiring-policy
I am still curious:
What, if anything, provoked this heinous attack on innocent tourists?
Wikipedia says
The cited reference says
So, another issue of migration and takeover?
It is part of proxy war between India and Pakistan. The pehalgam is probably a tit for tat due to this incident
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/pakistani-officials-say-insurgent-attack-on-train-ended-but-some-hostages-are-dead
I mistakenly omitted two links in my above comment:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/23/act-of-war-what-happened-in-kashmir-attack-that-killed-26-tourists
North Crimean Canal
After the Maidan revolution and the subsequent Russian annexation of Crimea in March 2014, Ukrainian authorities greatly reduced the volume of water flowing to the peninsula by means of damming the canal south of Kalanchak, about 10 miles (16 km) north of the Crimean border.[6] This began a severe water crisis in Crimea [uk].[7] The reduction caused the peninsula’s agricultural harvest, which is heavily dependent on irrigation, to fail in 2014.[6]
After the Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine blocked the canal, claiming that Crimea had accumulated a huge debt for water supplied the previous year.[186] This resulted in eight years of halted water flow, and was only unblocked in March 2022 after the Russians gained control of Kherson Oblast. Land used for farming shrank from 450,000 to 15,000 hectares (1,112,000 to 37,000 acres), and rice and buckwheat cultivation had to be stopped.[162]
On the morning of 6 June 2023, a significant portion of the Kakhovka Dam was destroyed releasing a large amount of water downstream. The Kakhovka Reservoir was the source of water for the canal.[20][21]
An infrared heat signature, consistent with that of a major explosion, was detected at the dam by United States spy satellites shortly before it collapsed.[15]
Experts consulted by The New York Times (NYT) said on 7 June that the most likely cause was a blast from inside, adding that an attack from outside or a structural failure were less plausible. They said that blasts from outside—such as from a missile or artillery strike—would exert only a fraction of the force needed, and would also have accuracy limitations.[9]
Retired U.S. general David Petraeus said on June 6 that the breach would cause no “military implications that are particularly large” because “the period of time that this is under water restricts the trafficability and so forth, but over time that will clear up.”[157] Petraeus said that as the flood waters recede, the river will actually become shallower and easier to cross.[158][c] He also said that this event will not prove to be a decisive hindrance to Ukraine. “I think they are going to crack the Russians. I think the Russians will prove to be quite brittle.”[157]
On 10 June 2023 the Institute for the Study of War referenced a Russian video reportedly showing that the North Crimean Canal had become dry,[194][195] contradicting the recent Russian statements that there was no threat of the canal losing water. The Ukrainians accused the Russians of not having a clear plan on how to solve the problem, and trying to avoid the issue and resorting to propaganda in order to prevent panic among the local population instead of working in terms of infrastructure.[196]
“Pumping for water supply to the Crimea could restart fairly soon.”[59] Sergey Aksyonov said that by installing pumps on the Dnieper River, up to 40 m3/sec could be supplied to the canal, and that this would improve the situation.[162]
the Antonovsky bridge over the Dnieper connected Kherson with the left bank, in particular with Oleshki and Belaya Prystaniya. When the Russian army fled from the liberated territory of Kherson region in the fall of 2022, it blew it up.