"More than a quarter-million Virginians have registered to vote since the beginning of the year, and jurisdictions that have traditionally voted Democratic are registering voters at the fastest pace, according to statistics released Tuesday by the State Board of Elections.
Virginia does not have party registration, but in almost every county and city with a history of supporting Democratic presidential candidates, the number of registered voters has increased by about 10 percent since Jan. 1.
Counties that have voted Republican recently are registering much lower percentages of voters, the statistics show.
In addition, 62 percent of new voters are younger than 35, and 42 percent are younger than 25, according to the state numbers.
The statistics suggest that Democrats could have a bigger base this year than in the 2004 presidential contest if they can get newly registered residents to vote on Election Day.
Since the start of the year, 283,695 people have registered to vote in Virginia, including 33,175 during the first half of September. And with the Oct. 6 registration deadline approaching, elections officials expect a crush of new applications." Tim Craig
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I think "The Old Dominion" may go Democratic in the presidential election.
Contrary to the out of state babble heard in the 24/7 news this chance for Obama does not seem to be based on the fabled "demographic shift" in the commonwealth. That plays a part, but the real problem for the Republicans is that they continue to think Virginians are the same as everyone else. In fact, people in the commonwealth have a general tendency to think for themselves and a weakness for "common sense."
For a number of past elections, the Republican Party has tried to import party leadership from elsewhere in the country for a takeover of the Virginia Republican Party. These leaders have a national party agenda involving "outreach," "inclusiveness," "multi-culturalism," and all the other baggage of the national party. They have generally had a tendency to think that they, personally, would be acceptable and that their agenda would carry the day. From the time that the party nominated Earley for governor until today, the belief has been widespread in party circles that anyone could be run as a Republican in Virginia and be elected. Defeat after defeat has proceeded from this belief.
The Republican ticket teeters on the brink of defeat in Virginia. Why? Virginians are not so foolish as to want to elect an "old coot" who has sold out to the "branding" philosophy of the merchandisers. At the same time, that "old coot" (McCain)subscribes to the political and economic philosophy of one of the most egregious and unpopular administrations in the history of the US.
Are Virginians mad for Obama? No, but they are more unhappy with the national Republican Party and Mr. Bush. pl
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/16/AR2008091603152.html
Meet a GOP delegate (video clip, you’d be surprised)
http://www.yestodemocracy.com/yes_to_democracy_no_to_pu/2008/09/karma-in-action.html
Meet Gabriel Nathan Schwartz, 29, a lawyer in Denver Colorado. Also a delegate from that state to the GOP 2008 convention.
Pat, “NoVa” (Northern Virginia, y’all) has become quite blue over the last few years. Probably that’s why we have Jim Webb in the Senate instead of Reliable Red Puppet Allen.
I’d like to think we’re heading that direction down here in Tidewater, but suspect that there’s a long road ahead. We still have Rob Wittman and Thelma Drake around to do the RNC’s bidding. We have a large retired military population that was trained for at least twenty years to the mantra of “Republican good, Democrat evil.”
Hoping that will change; hoping the jump in registrations foretells a sea change in this Commonwealth.
Curious, I saw the video of that critter on Wonkette yesterday! After the amazement faded, I had to go take a good slug of Pepto.
“Less taxes, more wars!” Now there’s a tagline to remember.
Col., you just talked yourself out of a McCain victory. If Obie holds all the 2004 Kerry states and wins VA and Iowa, he wins.
A slight uptick in African American turnout and a slight uptick in 18-34-year old turnout puts VA in the win column.
As goes Virginia, so goes the electoral college map.
Many NOVA residents are angry with the state Republican organization for their opposition to tax increases to pay for badly-needed infrastructure improvements. They resent the fact that they contribute far more than they get back.
lina
Once again: Forecasting IS NOT wishing!!!!!
TomS
I think you mean “citizens.” The constitution is pretty clear about the term. The business community wants citizens to be called “residents” because businesses are not citizens, and the use of the word puts citizens on the same level.
We have had a struggle here in Alexandria over that and have largely trained the politicians not to call us “residents.” Pl
On election night, watch the returns in Loudoun County. Therein lies the key to the Old Dominion – and the fortunes of Sen. Obama.
No question but that the “Old Dominion” could be a litmus test in November for the fortunes of either party. SIC SEMPER TYRANNIS rules!
I believe that the massive new voter registration shown in Virginia is likely to have been duplicated in many other states as well.
This registration effort and a similar massive GOTV (Get Out The Vote) effort is one of the reasons that I still have my nickel on Obama/Biden snatching the brass ring in November.
And as the polls are starting to swing back to Obama/Biden, I may have to increase my wager to a dime. *g*
I live in the district that Tom Davis is vacating. Gerry Connolly, the Democrat contender, is going to clean his Republican opponent’s clock and take this critical long held GOP district.
Falwell Goes All Out To Deliver VA for McCain
Well noted, Col. VA is not alone in seeing substantially increased voter registration. Also, primary turnouts have been exceptionally high nationwide. This bodes well for Obama and the entire Democratic slate, but it does not guarantee victory.
To a large extent, these newly registered voters are young or from historically disenfranchised, disaffected populations, and those groups have traditionally voted at very low rates compared to their registrations. Lots of initial enthusiasm, less follow through.
Obama is making excellent use of his Chicago organizing training to have have been putting together a thorough ground operation during the primaries that he kept operation and bulked up. In this, Hillary’s staying in the race and making sure that all the states were actually contested could be a godsend.
As the electoral map now stands, the shift of any single state will decide the contest. I would prefer a decisive judgement by the country, rather than a squeaker susceptible vote counting shenanigans. But a win is still a win.
McCain’s recent actions and statements make me wonder if he wouldn’t actually govern more poorly than W., a possibility I had thought nonexistant. But he’s a take charge guy, so as soon as Phil Gramm tells him how to solve the banking mess, I’m sure it will all turn out peachy. Wonder if Neil Bush is available to pitch in?
I can’t agree more with your reply comment above. Money always thinks it deserves the last word and decision. And in my experience, the greater the wealth the less satisfaction with its’ already abundant privileges. I’ve longed believed that one of the signal mistakes of American jurisprudence was the granting of personhood to corporations.
Palin Yahoo.com is hacked (it could be a campaign gag to fill the net with disinformation. Just another Rovian trick.)
But all I can say if this is true, Fuck off with “privacy talk”, McCain. You vote for spying bill. It’s time for people to spy on you.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/17/palins_yahoo_account_hacked.html
Palin’s Yahoo! Account Hacked
Updated 8:37 p.m.
By Michael D. Shear and Karl Vick
A group of computer hackers said yesterday they accessed a Yahoo! e-mail account of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, publishing some of her private communications to expose what appeared to be her use of a personal account for government business.
The hackers posted what they said were personal photos, the contents of several messages, the subject lines of dozens of e-mails and Palin’s e-mail contact list on a site called WikiLeaks.org. That site claimed that it received the electronic files from a group identifying itself only as “Anonymous.”
“At around midnight last night some members affiliated with the group gained access to governor Palin’s email account, ‘gov.palin@yahoo.com’ and handed over the contents to the government sunshine site Wikileaks.org,” said a message on the site.
Rick Davis, the campaign manager for Sen. John McCain, issued a statement Wednesday afternoon condemning the incident.
“This is a shocking invasion of the Governor’s privacy and a violation of law,” Davis said. “The matter has been turned over to the appropriate authorities and we hope that anyone in possession of these e-mails will destroy them. We will have no further comment.”
I’m very glad to see those numbers, since I’m working with the DNC to help raise money to open campaign offices in that very state. Looks like it’s working!
Graywolf: You left out the part about “he’s the anti-Christ.”
Speaking of socialism, have you ready any newspaper headlines in the last couple of days?
We’re all socialists now.
Curious: you gotta love the irony in that last Davis statement, given that, a.) when the govt. does this to the People, its called ‘protecting’ them, and b.) if Palin herself was breaking the law by doing govt. business using private email, which itself is against the law.
As lina points out, big turnouts favor the Dems, which is why the R machine has a wing dedicated to euphemistically ‘preventing voter fraud’–by getting Dems tossed off the voter rolls by any means available. Unfortunately, this strategery only works on the margins, which is why a huge turnout is bad news for the Reds.
Unfortunately Graywolf, i’m sure that, despite your resume, you don’t look good in lipstick. And you apparently haven’t gotten the news that socialism is suddenly ‘in’ this week.
Mr. Stress of Cleveland writes:
I saw a McCain – Palin sticker
INCONTINENT AND INCOMPETENT
O boy, there are always holdouts on either end of the political spectrum, see Graywolf. It’s just funny that anybody would be calling Obama a socialist in the same week that the Republican government nationalized Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG insurance company.
Or maybe Graywolf is kidding? That’s it. He’s satirizing Nathan Schwartz of Colorado.
The polls generally discount new voters because… they haven’t voted before! A lot depends upon the Obama campaign’s ability to get those people to vote.
I’d feel better about the polls if they weren’t so dependent upon land line telephones and ignoring cell phones users. And the perpetual problem with methodology of ‘weighing’ the raw data.
As a resident of the Glorious County of Fairfax I might have to stop by to check this out:
George Allen? Pardon the language, but are they f*cking kidding?! That odious faux Southerner?!
As the kids today say, “EPIC FAIL!”
People who have registered, or think they already are registered, might want to check to be sure they have stayed registered.
Just as the Obama ground game involves extensive registering of new voters and extensive efforts to get
voters to the polls, the Republican ground game will involve extensive efforts to
purge the already-registered
off of the polls; and interfere with and sabotage the successful registering of people who think they have newly registered. People might want to watch out for that.
Gray Wolf’s statements seem very closely based on material findable at Larry Johnson’s No Quarter website; which has become a nest of PUMAs, to say the least.
Graywolf, has McCain ever received a paycheck that was not signed by the government treasury? I believe he also grew up on federal property, went to government schools, etc. His whole life has been on Uncle Sam’s tab. Except for the marrying the multimillionaire.
That’s great for John, and I wish my plan to be kept in style or to win the lottery had kicked in, too. But it’s not so great for the rest of us who have to live by the precepts of rugged self reliance McCain advocates but doesn’t follow.
Other commenters have noted McCain’s approval of the AIG, Fannie and Freddie bailouts. That’s true. He flip flopped so fast on that it’s more of a rotisserie. But that’s not the half of it. His actions during the S&L crisis made the crisis far worse and cost the taxpayers billions more – and seems predicated on his trying to help out some buddies and contributors over at Silverado.
But maybe your definition of socialism is when government spends the taxpayer’s money providing services that benefit the citizenry. If that’s the case, then would you mind limiting your use of all government services to no more that the sum of your tax payments? Those of us trying to make a better country thank you.
jon
You are comparing a naval officer’s pay and benefits to the dole? pl
Perhaps Graywolf’s use of socialist is mere epithetic license. Nobody takes the term mofo literally.
Gray Wolf, a bad marriage does justify divorce however and that is what the American people need to do. divorce themselves from the Republican party that has really controlled this country for the last 8 years and from the looks of things run it into the ground.
To call Obama an empty suit is quite laughable when you have Gov Palin only a heartbeat away from the presidency if McSame wins. Would you really feel safe with her running this country when her clain to fame seems to be labeling herself a hocky mom and hunting moose and wolves. If Obama is an empty suit, McCain/Palin are empty heads.
Sorry Graywolf, but pointing out the obvious concerning ‘The One’ is going to get you flamed by all the ‘objective’ commenters posting here so far. How dare you blaspheme Him?
Seriously, it boggles the mind to see so many folks drinking deeply of the ‘Hope-Change'(TM) brand of Kool-Aid.
Oh, and it wasn’t a ‘Republican government’ which nationalized Fannie/Freddie etc. Last I checked the ever-so-pure ‘defenders of the little guy’ democrats were in charge of Congress. Keep drinking folks, gotta maintain the buzz!
*For the record, I support neither candidate in this seriously broken bi-factional ruling oligarchial system. I’m just as much against corporate fascism as I am against rampant socialism. Call me a ‘kook’ or ‘fringe extremist’ if you must, but IMHO, the man for the job is Congressman Ron Paul.
Seriously, it boggles the mind to see so many folks drinking deeply of the ‘Hope-Change'(TM) brand of Kool-Aid.
To steal a line from the bard, Conrad doth protest too much, methinks.
No kool-aid drinking is required to spot the irony (or is it cluelessness?) inherent in Graywolf complaining about a certain candidate being “socialist”. We are all socialists now, and it’s not like we-the-people were consulted as to this radical change of political direction.
Or at least, we’re all now citizens of a nation saddled with all the problems of socialism but with none of its benefits (e.g., universal health care), and contrary to Conrad’s assertions, it was indeed the GOP executive branch that made that decision, not the Congress.
In fact, it was less than a week ago that Secretary Paulson’s treasury department put out media materials explicitly stating that Congress had no rights whatsoever to revise the provisions of his GSE bailout. So how exactly does that demonstrate Democratic control of this ongoing nationalization process?
And speaking of irony, anyone who says “I’m just as much against corporate fascism as I am against rampant socialism” is actually in danger of repeating themself, since each of those “againsts” amounts to an assertion of opposition to current GOP policies.
Conrad the Crazed
I didn’t vote for Dr. Paul in the primary, but I must tell you…I respect the man greatly. Heroic without hype. Best kind.
His crowd, actually your crowd, was the first to see the true intent of neoconservatives and your crowd was the first to have the courage to stand up to them.
Dr. Paul was against the Iraqi invasion long before it was fashionable among Republicans and Democrats. So congratulations.
And the good doctor is about the only politician I know who warned us for years of the impending financial crisis. Compare Paul’s statements to that of Barney Frank, chairman of the Banking committee or, for that matter, any Bush Republican.
Or for that matter, any Obama strategist. According to some, Obama has rec’d much more in the way of contributions from the Lehman, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac crowd than even McCain.
So your reference to a 2 party imperial “oligarchy” warrants a close look. Your comment may suggest that the problem is “structural” and only Dr. Paul appears eager and has the moral courage to restore a balance of power between the federal branches as well as between the fed and states. I am yet to hear the other two talk about reducing the role of an imperial presidency.
That said, if you get a chance, please tell your honorable brethren, including DiLorenzo, that the judiciary is not quite as bad as some tend to believe, although I see your points as well. Plus, I must confess that I also have problems with anarcho-capitalism but the good doctor is not of that ilk; in fact, in many ways, his worldview seems most appropriate as an antidote to the destructive ways of our two imperial parties of 2008.
Greywolf: Bless you for sticking around and commenting, all due respect for standing up to the majority here. I must admit I fail to see how your reasoning works, though. However, as a citizen of a truly semi-socialist state, Norway, I am intrigued at your use of the word socialism to mark Obama. Care to tell me how Obama is a socialist in civilized language? As far as I can tell, its the repubs who are nationalizing the US economy on a friendship-based rate?
“I’ve got a better resume and I don’t think that I should be President.”
Greywolf, After we see your resume I am sure most here will agree that you should not be president.
I doubt seriously that OB/Biden win Virginia.
Virginia,I think, will be the Mother of all political battlefields in the next 7 weeks, and possibly one of the keys to the election.
After having voted Democratic for President for the last 36 years, I’m not even voting this year-I’m so pissed off.
I won’t do anything this year politically or donate money to anyone. Period.
Out here in NW VA–God’s Little Acre–if anyone asks me about my thoughts, I will tell them the following:
Obama/Biden:
I like OB’s Chicago sewer cologne, but it seems that a person who takes all that money from Chicago slumlords and Chicago predatory bankers, and much of whose recent financing has come from Wall Sreet investment banks in trouble, should at least have enough money left over to get the suit dry cleaned, and to get a free shower at a truck stop, when he fuels up his SUV.
Biden was a predictable choice, servant of the money interests. Senator MBNA and Bankruptcy Reform many call him.
On McCain/Palin: I like their ideas on Wall Street and governmental reform, but for many other ideological reasons, I could never vote for them.
They do, however, have a sort of “common touch” or genuineness, and it shows.
I would love to invite them into my house for breakfast, congratulate them on their accomplishments, and share ideas. I would not let Obama or Biden in my door, or walk 50ft across the street to shake their hand.
I just let my 21 lb, 3-year-old male feline out the door, to prey at night.
He spent much of the summer
reading on the intertoobs,at night, while I was asleep, and thinks he’s a PUMA. I tell him no he’s not, PUMAs have rounded ears and yours are pointy. Then I drag out Don Quixote, to enable him to read another chapter.
Hopefully, I’m making some progress with the cat.
It’s going to be real when it gets real Pat. And I don’t think Obama wins Virginia.
Take Care.
“Researchers writing in Science report that the political orientation of test subjects who have strong views is linked to how easy they are to startle. They found that subjects who were more fearful were more likely to have right wing views, such as being in favor of capital punishment and higher defense budgets. The researchers suggest that this psychological difference is why it is so difficult to change people’s minds in political arguments.”
http://science.slashdot.org/science/08/09/19/2019214.shtml
We have been mentioning mementics and marketing in the current election campaign before. I found this excellent article on the topic.
I’ve quoted you and linked to you here: http://consul-at-arms.blogspot.com/2008/09/re-massive-new-registration-in-virginia.html