The next main axis of attack?

Axisnasrfialeppo

Ain't technology grand?

Here we have a Google Earth image taken from space of the present field of battle in Aleppo.

In the upper left corner you see the citadel of Aleppo, a medieval structure standing on its hill above the old city.  It is within government lines.

In the lower right corner you see one end of the runways at Aleppo International Airport.  The airport is also within government lines. 

The space between is about 1.5 miles at most.

There is a wide highway that connects the two map objects.

The space between these objects is jihadi held, as is a patch of remaining jihadi territory both north and south of the broad airport road.  There is constant pressure now on this remaining jihadi enclave from various directions as THE PEOPLE flee toward and into government shelters

IMO the final blow to jihadi hopes and dreams will likely be in a drive astride the airport highway and using the open ground south of the road with the objective of reaching the citadel and cutting the jihadi zone in half yet again.  pl

Aleppo_city1

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98 Responses to The next main axis of attack?

  1. Laguerre says:

    Just as an alternative, the southeastern suburbs are pretty open and might offer an easier target. As b noted on a previous thread, fighting through the inner city may be difficult. reducing the alternatives might be valid.
    That said, the defenders are pretty shaken, and might run at any point if the correct attack is made.

  2. turcopolier says:

    Laguerrre
    IMO they should seek a decisive and final outcome quickly. pl

  3. Peter in Toronto says:

    They are moving with all possible haste. There is no room for any mediated solution in Aleppo with the Turks and their surrogates lurking just a few kilometers North, seeking to pounce on any opportunity to frustrate Assad’s consolidation.
    This appears to be a multi-prong thrust, with major actions in the north west, particularly the Tigers, engaged in the Sheikh Saeed settlement.

  4. turcopolier says:

    Peter in Toronto
    There should a main axis supported by other attacks. Someone taught me that somewhere … pl

  5. Kooshy says:

    Colonel, I think if things get tighter around them the Jahadies will ask for a ticket on green bus to Idlib, UN and west will pressure the Russians and Syrians and they will have to agree. I think by next week we should know if they ask for ticket to ride on a green bus.

  6. turcopolier says:

    kooshy
    Idlib is good. Better targets. pl

  7. Kooshy says:

    Yes sir indeed it is

  8. Kooshy,
    The Russians and Syrians will not have to do anything the West says about Aleppo. The decision to bus the jihadis to Idlib or not will be made by the Russians and Syrians based on military and humanitarian reasons. If they deem a final assault would be too costly to the SAA or the civilians left in jihadi held Aleppo, they may accept a bussing. If they feel they can take Aleppo without incurring excessive casualties, they will kill the jihadis where they presently sit. It’s their choice, not the West’s.

  9. ToivoS says:

    I read just this last week in the WaPo that John Kerry is working very hard right now to negotiate a cease fire in Aleppo. In fact Kerry and Lavrov just met yesterday to discuss this plan. Wouldn’t that prevent the total defeat of the Aleppo rebels .

  10. Bystander says:

    According to this https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/video-syrian-army-shock-troops-push-rebel-held-districts-aleppo/ the SAA Tiger Forces have today started pushing west of the airport. The image suggests it might be on the highway you flag. They mention a number of districts but I don’t know if they’re in the area you suggest.

  11. Pundita says:

    From Leith Fadel’s dad at Syrian Perspective, today, about 8 hours ago:
    “Sharmine Narwani sent a message via my email announcing the departure of the White Helmets from East Aleppo.They, evidently, evacuated along with all the Islamist terrorist rodents toward Turkey.”
    http://syrianperspective.com/2016/12/terrorists-escape-east-aleppo-in-state-of-anarchy-leadership-collapses-and-white-helmets-take-off-with-the-rats-al-tal-liberated-abu-muhammad-al-jawlaani-to-be-assassinated.html
    The evacuation of all sounds a little hopeful but if the White Helmets have skedaddled I’d take that as their American handlers yanking them.

  12. Thirdeye says:

    Looks like there’s a pretty big advance north of the airport highway.
    https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/804684743598084097/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
    Sheikh Saeed seems to be pretty hotly contested right now.
    http://militarymaps.info/

  13. AEL says:

    I do not know how “integrated” the SAA and its allies are. It may be difficult to make all the different factions operate as a single coordinated organization. In that case, it may be easier to give everyone a different section of Aleppo to operate in.
    Does anyone know how well the SAA and allies work together?

  14. elaine says:

    How are the jihadis identified from the civilians?

  15. b says:

    I had looked favorably at that road axis about five weeks ago.
    https://twitter.com/MoonofA/status/782197553269964800
    But some Syrian told me that the buildings north of the road are good sniper/anti-tank positions and would all need to be flattened. The last piece on the western side are densely build old structures and with many tunnels – not ideal either unless one is willing to take it all down.
    My guess is the SAA and allies will stick to their plan. Attack from all sides, weaken the enemy wherever one can, drive them into the old city and then negotiate their exit while putting them under constant fire. Taking the road would have “style” in a military sense. But unlike the U.S. military which is used to destroys foreign cities without much thought of the aftermath the Syrians are fighting in one of their own ones and want to keep it intact as much as possible.

  16. b says:

    Correction of my earlier comment – not “5 weeks ago” but 9 weeks ago, that tweet was from Oct 1.

  17. johnf says:

    “Aleppo siege: Syria rebels lose 60% of territory”
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-38194136
    The BBC actually has their Chief Foreign Correspondent now based in West Aleppo. Will she start telling the truth? Fat chance!

  18. LeaNder says:

    Interesting, the old citadel, that is.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citadel_of_Aleppo
    Not sure, if I got this:
    The space between these objects is jihadi held, as is a patch of remaining jihadi territory both north and south of the broad airport road.
    but maybe I did. If you mean: The whole area South of the highway all the way to the citadel? I hope, not quite. 😉

  19. turcopolier says:

    LeaNder
    Never belonged to anything like “Verband Deutscher Altpfadfindergilden?” I don’t understand the question, but, think of a map or aerial photograph as a two dimensional depiction of a portion of the earth’s surface as seen from above. Work on it. pl

  20. turcopolier says:

    b
    Well, if you looked at it and decided against it why am I wasting my time? “unlike the U.S. military which is used to destroys foreign cities without much thought of the aftermath” Always with the nasty, sneering, condescending attitude toward us. I remind you that it was the BRITISH army that destroyed your grandparents house, not the US Army. pl

  21. turcopolier says:

    Elaine
    Always a difficult thing to do and mistakes are made. Of course if they surrender in a group as they have been doing in many parts that makes it easier. I would hope that the Syrian authorities are surreptitiously taking pictures of these so that they can identify them later. pl

  22. Nuff Sed says:

    Colonel:
    Further to your earlier question regarding suggested nomenclature for the rats (Qadafi had it right): rebels is actually better than jihadis as it is, properly speaking, pejorative, as it should be: they are rebelling against a righteous (or mote righteous) social order; whereas jihadis as a description of those who engage in jihad is superlative. Secondly, neither Sonnis nor Shi’a believe these rats to be engaged in jihad; it is only the Wahhabi heretics and their MI6 and CIA controllers who use this term, knowing full well that it is nothing more than just another spurious meme. So it is doubly wrong.
    The correct term is foreign-sponsored takfiri mercenaries or dawaaesh (دواعش) for short, it being the plural form of daaesh.
    In my humbling opinion. Nuff Sed.

  23. turcopolier says:

    nuff sed
    By now you should have noticed that I do not like jihadis and, indeed, would probably render any that fell into my clutches into fertilizer. But, I will point out once again that Islam has no central authority and that there as many kinds of Islam as there are ijma’ groups of Muslims. Therefore, it is merely futile to say that this group or that are “heretical.” pl

  24. LG says:

    So, takfiri rats? However, while we, the col’s disciples, might get it, we need a term that would be universally understood

  25. turcopolier says:

    LG
    “takfiri rats.” I kinda like that. pl

  26. LG says:

    I’ve been following some Syrian journalists through the last four years of this war. They say that the gov’t had several moles reporting from rat-held territory. Now that common people have been freed , any rodent trying to pass off as a human will be exposed

  27. Nuff Sed says:

    Press TV reports:
    Joined by allied fighters, the Syrian military seized Aleppo’s Tariq al-Bab neighborhood from the militants, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Saturday.
    The advance also restored control on a road leading from Aleppo’s government-held western neighborhoods to the city’s airport, which is also under government control.
    Foreign-backed militants amassed in the city’s eastern side in 2012. The government has been controlling its west and fighting to retake the east.
    The official Syrian Arab News Agency said the military had also wrested back control over the Karam Al-Qaterji, Jazmati, and Halwaniyah neighborhoods in eastern Aleppo. An unspecified number of the militants were killed in the operations.

  28. LeaNder says:

    sorry Pat. Forget it. Google map is interesting. Who was it again that asked if there could be some type of barrel bomb gravity right turn, leaving the roofs in place?
    Personal not, while not quite related to the guilds you have in mind. I tried to get some type of forest Pfad/path map down in the Blackforest some years ago. No chance, nothing helpful on offer, didn’t exist. That is till my mother realized my desire and found an old one. Although at that point I didn’t need it anymore. 😉

  29. Nuff Sed says:

    Yes and no. There is very broad consensus on *praxis* within Islam (but not on *doxa*) within the 4+1 rites (madhaaheb), and Wahhabis and takfiri praxis falls outside that consensus or magisterium. But yes in that modernity as (non-takfiri) Salafism has been doing a pretty good job of gnawing away, with rodent-like diligence, at that consensus.

  30. turcopolier says:

    LeaNder
    I have been reading topographic maps and overhead photos since I was a teen. I have a hard time understanding an inability to do the same since a topo map is a picture to me. pl

  31. turcopolier says:

    Nuff Said
    Oh, baloney. Only a pedant would make that argument. pl

  32. turcopolier says:

    TTG
    One of the great days of my life happened when my men insisted one day out in the wilderness that I choose first out of some cases of C Rations that we had just had dropped to us. They said that I always ended up with the most undesirable meal and that they wanted me to get something I liked for once.
    In Re Aleppo – to all
    – I did not order R+6 to attack along the airport road axis
    – IMO the open ground south of the airport road is natural ground for a large scale armored advance.
    – I doubt that there are a lot of civilians left in the area just in front (east) of the citadel hill, but … anyone who thinks you can make “bloodless war” is a fool who should expect to be defeated.
    – IMO it should be remembered that as the Bard said, there is a tide in the affairs of men … If R+6 screws around with this too long something may occur on the international scene that will ruin the victory.
    – The thing to do is to get this over with at Aleppo, get the utilities back on, get the supply chain moving into the city and get people back into their homes as re-construction takes place. pl

  33. Serge says:

    It’s a mistake to not differentiate between the idlibites and the true believers father east imo. I continue to believe that IS as it has existed since 2013 is fully independent of any foreign government’s control,same cannot be said for the western rebels which are categorically direct proxies of one state or the other. IS doesn’t do anyone’s bidding except indirectly. Sounds a lot like you’re burying your head in the sand to refuse to believe that the revolutionary strain of salafism (of which IS is the tip of the iceberg of) does in fact increasingly hold immense appeal to an incrementally greater proportion of the Arab and Muslim world as time goes on. The Saudi and Gcc citizens aren’t spared from this undercurrent that their kings unleashed in the 80s, as these kings have failed to acknowledge and account for in their lopsided plans for regional domination(imo)

  34. Nuff Sed says:

    “Moderats” also works 😉

  35. turcopolier says:

    johnf
    Elyse Doucet? I saw her on BBC America last night reporting from West Aleppo refugee shelters. It was the first honest reporting from BBC in Syria that I have ever seen. The anchor in DC looked stunned. What has been sadly amusing about foreign journalists reporting from Aleppo is that they typically arrive by air at Damascus and are taken by the government to the front. pl

  36. Nuff Sed says:

    Not at all. Just because the nihilistic relativism which you believe to be an accurate description of the reality of Islam is indeed on the ascendant, this does not mean that the millenial magisterium did not and does not exist, or that giving this millenial tradition it’s due is “pedantic”. Rather, it is the paradigm that still predominates.

  37. kooshy says:

    Colonel, FYI
    As of this morning RT is reporting Mr. Kery has asked Mr. Lavaov, let us take out our Jihadi Unicorns out of Aleppo. We will find out if they mean it this time or not.
    “Moscow is ready to immediately send our military experts and diplomats to Geneva to work out joint actions with our US colleagues in line with the [new] American proposals, which would ensure the withdrawal of all militants without exception from eastern Aleppo, and would provide unimpeded humanitarian supplies to the city’s residents and ensure the establishment of normal life in eastern Aleppo,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Saturday.
    Until Friday, the United States had been doing its best to try to “push provisions that would take the heat off Al-Nusra, which directs the militants in the unliberated parts of eastern Aleppo,” Lavrov noted, while adding, “however, yesterday at our meeting in Rome, John Kerry passed on to us proposals from Washington that are in line with the suggestions from Russia’s experts.”
    “It must not be a meeting for the sake of a meeting,” Lavrov added. “It is necessary to agree on a detailed timeline of steps.”
    https://www.rt.com/news/369093-us-aleppo-russia-talks/

  38. Nuff Sed says:

    Update from the superb Canthama at SyrianPerspective.com
    Canthama
    Dramatic moment now in Aleppo, the Tiger Forces are quickly advancing in the NE part of the pocket, building from two days of positive results in gaining urban ground from the terrorists, reports arriving of complete liberation of Karam al-Jazmati and Karam al-Tarrab and large parts of Karam al-Myassar, placing the Syrian forces as far as al Jazmati roundabout.
    As if a repeat of the domino effect last weekend, the Desert Hawks are advancing from Sheikh Sa’eed )partially liberated again), Sheikh Lufti (almost entirely liberated) and the vantage points of Police hill and Tallet al Shertat toward Salheen and Marjeh districts in the direction of the citadel and another leg advancing from tallet al Shertat toward the highway Citadel-Aleppo Airport, it seems the fight will be soon brought to the ancient Aleppo walls (old ring road around Aleppo now) which means a possible cut off for the terrorists in the upper part.
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=36.201378&lon=37.190437&z=14&m=b
    https://twitter.com/loomisroberto/status/805015921190379524
    As mentioned last night, terrorists’ defensive lines are collapsing, and that is even after JI and JF terrorists gangs sent reinforcements late yesterday, soon the race to the citadel will be on for the Syrian forces and allies and the race out of the NE/North pockets will be on to the terrorists, the fate seems sealed that the last standing will be south/western side of the pockets. This is going to be another very important day for the battle to free Aleppo.

  39. LeaNder says:

    I can easily understand this, Pat.
    My best friend started out with toy game figures to delineate maps. As kid,really, not as teen.
    As a result of this quite early orientation via maps we had this clash of characters (among others) concerning how to best deal with orientation or move from now on.
    My standard setting was, ask people how to best find ways, with all the troubles involved was asking the next best person available. Did they get left and right correctly? Did they consider McDonald’s as the best marks for orientation? His ‘custom setting’ was looking for the next map. …

  40. turcopolier says:

    Nuff Sed
    Muslims (like you?) have always sought to believe that Islam is one. It never was, never. pl

  41. b says:

    No, it was the CANADIAN army that destroyed by grandparents house.
    But away from that is there objective reason to doubt what I said?
    The U.S. military is since your civil war only fighting in foreign lands. Destroying a foreign city to kill the enemy, whoever that might be, will be done without much thought by some kid from Texas.
    But many people in the Syrian army are from Aleppo. Many have relatives there. They will have to pay for any and all damage. The calculation is thereby a completely different one for the locals than for a foreign army. If they think they have a way to avoid damage they will use it.

  42. Nuff Sed says:

    Colonel:
    Again, yes and no. Yes in the sense that the world is grey and never black and white (as it applies to social systems anyway, as opposed to, say, mathematical ones). But a big No in that therefore such questions are a matter of scale and perspective. Relative to Christedom – and again, in the domain of orthopraxy – Islamic orthopraxy is certainly unific. This unity or integrality even obtains in many matters of the various creeds.
    That is what Bernard Lewis and his other MI6 predecessor Ann Lambton unknowingly envy. Nuff Sed.

  43. Serge says:

    Great point often lost in the modern propagandistic discussions of what is “Islamic” and “unislamic”, points being completely irrelevant when looking at history. Just take a cursory look at first 100 years of the caliphate for example,the formative catalyst of sunnite doctrine being the ummayyad reaction to the innumerable Ijma interpretations of Islam springing up. This following anecdote which I find distills the whole thing perfectly in its parallel to the modern revival of ummayyad sunnism ,notably it was recently used by IS(Umayyad revanchists in every sense)in one of their propaganda pieces
    “I witnessed Khaaid bin ‘Abdullah al-Qasree – and he addressed them at Waasit – “Oh People, make sacrifice, may Allah accept it from you. Verily I am sacrificing al-Ja’d bin Dirham, for indeed he claims that Allah did not take Ibrahim as a khaleel (close friend), and [that] He did not speak to Moosa. Most Perfect is He and exalted is He from what al-Ja’d says.” Then he descended and slaughtered him.”
    IMO this modern IS and undercurrent of Salafi jihadism goes far beyond Wahhabism as it’s inspiration. There is a very real base in the frustrations caused by the modern destruction of the ideal of a geographical Arab nation state as an undercurrent to all this. A Frankenstein decades in the making

  44. Babak Makkinejad says:

    Are you referring to the Jihadists/Neo-Salafis as relativistic nihilists?
    They certainly are not nihilists; they almost certainly think that they are advancing the cause of Islam. Including Mohammad Atta et. al.
    I would refer to them as anarchistic Muslims. This anarchistic attitude among some Muslims has been present since the beginnings of Islam. The son-in-law of the Prophet, Ali, who was also the second person to have become a Muslim, was assassinated while praying in a Mosque in Kufa; the assassin believed Ali not to be a Muslim at all!

  45. turcopolier says:

    Serge & Nuff Sed
    Let us not forget the very early emergence if the Ridda Warriors and the various kinds of Khawarij. pl

  46. turcopolier says:

    b
    “Der ganze Balkan ist nicht die gesunden Knochen eines einzigen pommerschen Grenadiers wert.” I agree with the spirit of that. Buildings can be re-built. Look at downtown Beirut. pl

  47. Nuff Sed says:

    The Khawaarej were the original takfiris, and this strain saw its various adumbration through Eben Teymiyya, Eben Khozayma, and Eben Abdol-Wahhab, the latter of whom was an intellectual midget compared to his theological predecessors. Note that Ahmad b. Hanbal is not a part of this deviant tradition. Eben Abdol-Wahhab’s patron was Eben Saud, who was in turn armed and funded by Perfidious Albion as a way to get to the soft underbelly of the Ottomans.

  48. turcopolier says:

    Nuff Sed
    Stanford? you have your own interesting way of transliterating Arabic. Is that of your own devising? “Eben Teymiyya” rather than Ibn Taymiyya. ابن تيمية The short vowel at the beginning of Ibn is kasra. How does that become “Eben?” The short vowels in Arabic are fatha, kasra and damma. pl

  49. Laguerre says:

    Popular transliteration, colonel. If you don’t know Arabic, you are dependent on your source. Nuff Sed’s representation of the name of Ahmad b. Hanbal is different and correct, because he’s got it from somewhere else.

  50. Laguerre says:

    “Note that Ahmad b. Hanbal is not a part of this deviant tradition.”
    That’s a curious thing to say. Ahmad ibn Hanbal was a major source for Ibn Taymiyya.
    By the way, Ibn Saud was not armed and funded by Britain. The contact was relatively slight. The Brits preferred the Hashemites. Ibn Saud did it all by himself.

  51. Annem says:

    It seems that sending the “other/our jihadis” off to Idlib is not a problem for the SAA and Russians, but the offer doesn’t extend to Jabhat Fath al Sham.

  52. Nuff Sed says:

    Emm, Cal Berkeley actually, seeing as you’ve asked. But pretty close. And yes, it is my own system. It is Arabic through an indo-European filter, namely, a Persian one. Hence, Teymiyya rather than the Arabic Taymiyya. And you were absolutely right when you said earlier that there is no universally accepted system of latinizing Arabic (let alone Persianate Arabic names and Persianized loan words). In contemporary common Persian usage, the kasra goes from the Arabic ee to something like an eh. The eben is actually a hybrid or compromise as i decided the Persian “ebn-e” was too much. I also decided to go with an “as pronounced” system rather than the academicall preferred “as written” Latinization for the benefit of those who don’t know how the words are supposed to be pronounced. Thus, I revert back to the way it used to be before the library of congress was adopted, e.g., an-Najaf rather than al-Najaf, Fatimat oz-Zahra in preference to Fatima al-Zahra, etc. But you can’t win with an as pronounced “system” as this varies with time and space. Hence academia’s preference for the letter. But then, they don’t have to worry about their audience mangling the pronounciation every time.
    Sorry to rant on. Nuff Sed.

  53. The Beaver says:

    Colonel,
    Doucet who is Canadian is a very good journalist. She was “stolen” from the CBC after her reporting on Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion back in the 80’s.

  54. The Beaver says:

    @ TTG
    After the Friends of Syria meeting 5 years ago in November 2011 in Paris, Guess what:
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/eu-offers-cash-to-assad-regime-for-syria-peace-deal-w8shn8rjx
    “The EU is offering financial support for a Syria still ruled by President Assad in a last-ditch effort to retain western influence on the outcome of the war, The Times has been told.”
    Poor Ayrault who was trying to get the coalition going ( anyway no point since Pres. Hollande won’t be running again)We will see what happens at the UNSC

  55. Akire says:

    After Syria is done, Yemen is next.

  56. Croesus says:

    Just like Catholicism, which was, is, and ever shall be One.
    Unless of course you are talking to an Irish bishops at a spaghetti dinner in the church hall of an Italian parish in a Polish neighborhood in a sanctuary city for Hispanic immigrants.

  57. Croesus says:

    Nevertheless, one hopes desperately that Aleppo’s Citadel is not destroyed. The soul of a people is centered on such monuments; they seem essential to re-invigorate a traumatized society.

  58. BraveNewWorld says:

    Strangely proximity doesn’t seem to help cure the BS. The CBC sent some one to West Aleppo as well and they are still sticking to their masters(the NDP party) line of White helmets, last hospital etc,etc. I have written a letter to their ombudsman stating they should do a review of how they failed so entirely and suggesting they apologise the people of Canada for what they have done.
    I am chocking this up to the old adage “There are none so blind as those who will not see”.

  59. Thirdeye says:

    When BBC admits refugees are coming to government-held areas and the terrorists are shooting at them for trying to leave, you know things are getting serious!

  60. BraveNewWorld says:

    “Congress authorizes Trump to arm Syrian rebels with anti-aircraft missiles”
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/12/defense-ndaa-congress-manpads-syria.html
    I will give Trump the benefit of the doubt and assume he wouldn’t do it even if pushed by Congress. Not that it will matter by the time Trump takes over there won’t be a lot of large armed Jihadi groups left. It will be more under ground and I suspect walking around with manpads will be a good way to get disappeared in the nearish future of Syria.
    As for this “wise” decision by Congress there is nothing I can say that would not get me banned from this site.

  61. plantman says:

    Colonel,
    When the SAA takes the last part of Aleppo, do you expect they will find communications equipment that will identify their supporters? (and whether those supporters have been providing on-the-ground logistical assistance.)

  62. Bandolero says:

    turcopolier
    My understanding is now that the Syrian army will likely follow a different approach than following the airport road. I think now the Syrian army will likely go through the middle of densely built districts, one after the other, like Karm al-Myassar – Marjah – Salheen – Karm ad Dada. -> Game over. See that potential move here:
    http://bit.ly/2gTrGqU
    The reason why I think such a move may be better is that – AFAIK – these are largely empty districts, while rebels have put all their power on holding the front lines, and these front lines are defended with well entrenched positions, lot’s of IEDs and so on.
    There were even reports in western media about all life being close to front lines. Western media explained that with the argument that being close to the front lines people feel more secure because Syrian helicopters are afraid to drop barrel bombs there because they are afraid of hitting their own people close to the front lines. I don’t buy that. I think all life in rebel-held Aleppo moved to the front lines because the front lines are the only places in rebel-held Aleppo where there is money, wages for fighters, and therefore shops, food and so on. But the districts behind the front lines are ghost towns.
    That’s what I think the Syrian army is heading for: going through the ghost towns from one to the next and from there taking down entrenched rebel front lines from behind. So for example: the airport road is likely an entrenched rebel front line, but for an attack from the ghost districts behind their backs there rebels at the front line are not prepared.
    Of course, these possible tactics may all be not very important anymore. The whole situation in Aleppo looks to me more and more like a fight between a 300 pound boxer and a 100 pound boxer. If it is so it doesn’t matter much anymore whether the 300 pound boxer SAA comes over the right side, the middle or the left side. It needs just one more blow anyhow and the 100 pound rebel boxer is knocked out. But that blow should come asap.

  63. Chris Chuba says:

    The Borg media is relentless. On FOX News, they said that 30,000 have already ‘fled’ eastern Aleppo and that the ‘regime’ has captured 60% of the pocket and are storming the remaining portion were 250,000 civilians are trapped. All enabled by genocidal bombing by the Russians, of course. Do these people listen to themselves, at what point would a thinking person start to question number like 250K, when 1% of the pocket is left? There was tons of editorializing about, ‘how we are letting this happen’, ‘how it was shameful’, etc, …
    Here is a satirical map of Aleppo https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxrXPkXUQAAZlf6.jpg
    Do visit the weblink. I find that a little humor takes some of the sting out of watching this farce of a coverage of the Syrian war.

  64. LG says:

    Perhaps, sir, we could just call them terrorists (as the Syrian govt calls them). This has the advantages of being easily understood by all.
    two reporters from Anna News, that has done excellent coverage of the Syrian War, provide an excellent overview of military tactics in the Syrian war. The beginning of the video seem boring to all of you who are military experts, but you might find the latter part interesting. I encourage all SST members to watch.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mSnRo7aO9I
    “Vasily Pavlov, Anrey Filatov lecture on terrorist tactics – paralyzing and destroying modern society”

  65. turcopolier says:

    Bravenewworld
    IMO the present Congress is largely inhabited by the ignorant. pl

  66. turcopolier says:

    Nuff Sed
    OK. I won’t argue. Is this a Hebrew University method? In a strange way it seems like Doughty’s English in “Travels in Arabia Deserta.” pl

  67. Nuff Sed says:

    1. He was misinterpreted by Eben Teymiyya.
    2. You are rhinitis of the second Eben Saud, not the original one.

  68. Nuff Sed says:

    I wouldn’t know.

  69. Dubhaltach says:

    In reply to Kooshy 02 December 2016 at 07:04 PM
    “UN and west will pressure the Russians and Syrians and they will have to agree”
    Really? The Russians and Syrians are winning on the field and it’s the victor that dictates the terms. They might do as you suggest either because they see some advantage to it or because of miscalculation. But that’s not the same as the losers dictating the terms.

  70. LeaNder says:

    NS, you seem to be the singularity your aka suggests.
    “In contemporary common Persian usage, the kasra goes from the Arabic ee to something like an eh. … ”
    Guessing here:
    Does “usage” serve as synonym for “phonetics” here?
    But you can’t win with an as pronounced “system” as this varies with time and space.
    Yes, true.
    Nitwit question: But present Persian phonetics can bridge space and time in transcriptions versus transliteration? Before and after the times when Persian was some kind of lingua franca in the ME?

  71. LeaNder says:

    Ok, I see. Sounded somewhat peculiar to this nitwit too.

  72. b says:

    The ANNA News talk was extremely interesting – thanks for that. I beleive that the observations in it are correct.
    (unfortunately I can not find the second part in English)

  73. Will.2718 says:

    Adding a comment to the transliteration of Arabic thread. Always wondered how ibn-Rushd, who wrote ‘The Incoherence of the Incoherence’ in reply to ‘The Incoherence of the Philosophers,’ metamorphosed into ‘Averroes.’ His work was introduced to the Latin West from Spain by Hebrew scholars. “Averroes is the Medieval Latin form of the Hebrew translation Aben Rois or Rosh of the Arabic Ibn Rushd.” wikipedia

  74. LG says:

    Sorry its in Russian.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcYEEjkHQrM
    I think I’ve seen one with English dubbing but I may be mistaken. Couldn’t find it.

  75. Pundita says:

    Haven’t seen Elyse Doucet’s reports on TV but a Dec 3 video report from her at the BBC site is a misleading account of what things are like for E. Aleppo displaced persons in warehouse shelter(s) in W. Aleppo. If you want to see it, here is the link; scroll down at bit on the page to the video, which is titled “The children of eastern Aleppo have never known a life without war.”
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38194136
    The contrast between the shelter situation shown by Doucet and her camera crew, and the one shown at the FARS site, is striking.
    http://en.farsnews.com/player.aspx?nn=13950913000678
    While the warehouse site in the FARS video is crowded and conditions are primitive, doctors are in attendannce, the DPs are being fed, and supplies are being distributed, all under the direction of competent-looking lades directing the action with megaphones. It’s not the Red Cross after it’s had time to set up a shelter for hurricane victims in the USA, but it’s nowhere near the horror show portrayed by Doucet and her camera crew.
    The stark contrast between the BBC and FARS videos could be ‘best and worst-case’ shelters, but the British public will never have a chance to see the side of the story that FARS shows.
    Moreover, Doucet makes it seem that the bleak situation she shows at the warehouse will grind on. What she doesn’t explain is that the warehouse accommodations are meant to be very temporary — while the Russian and Syrian governments get basic services restored in the areas of E. Aleppo that the SAA coalition cleared of terrorists.
    So while Doucet steers clear of the most blatant propaganda, her report is so insidious that it makes the sledgehammer propaganda of another BBC correspondent, Lina Shamy, look like amateur hour. The winsome Ms Shamy also has her latest report, filed from E. Aleppo for BBC Arabic, posted on the same page as Doucet’s. (Scroll down a little more for that one.)
    As to why Shamy is reporting in English for BBC Arabic, maybe because a video news editor at the Beeb got her from Looks Like Me Central Casting and couldn’t resist pitching her to English-speaking news consumers. She’s Syrian but she looks like me, she talks like me — “me” being a sensitive Western 20Something who needs coloring books to survive hearing about the horrors of war.
    But Shamy makes sure her viewers hear every whopper she can think up to convey the horrors of the the Assad Dictator’s assaults on innocents.
    By the way, the Looks Like Me persuasive tactic, while not new, has been refined to the point where it can be considered a science; it was used with devastating success in the infamous “Stop Kony 2012” video to immediately gain sympathy, and donations, from hundreds of thousands of internet-surfing Western children and young adults.

  76. Fred says:

    BNW,
    That’s the borg in action. Read paragraph one:
    “… it represents a win for Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain, R-Ariz., a fervent advocate of helping the rebels…”
    McCain hates Trump. He’ll push this crap until he dies of old age.

  77. Nuff Sed says:

    Sorry, with the auto-correct function turned on, one should always proofread. “Rhinitis” was supposed to be “thinking”.

  78. Nuff Sed says:

    1. I suppose so. What I mean to say is that the Persian pallet prefers a softer sound, and so softens it. And if one’s intention is to try to represent the sound as faithfully as possible, then one has to change the orthography accordingly, i. e. to reflect the Persian expression or enunciation.
    2. Not sure what you mean, but what I meant was that pronounciation and accents vary in time as well as through different regions, and there is nothing you can do about the fact that your “system” can be no more than a snap shot at best, even if you use a wide-angle lens – and the problem obtains irrespective of whether you are engaged in transcription or transliteration (because when your Latinization approach is to represent the text or sound “as pronounced”, then it is all transcription, as you must convert the text to a sound reel mentally before you can proceed to Latinize it). Nuff Sed.

  79. turcopolier says:

    Nuff Sed
    You can transliterate however you like but I don’t quite see the point. Ibn Taymiyya is an Arab name. so far as I know the man spoke Arabic as his native tongue and would have pronounced his name as an Arab would, not as a Persian would have. I do not know what your field is but one of the most interesting things about Classical Arabic is its immense lexicon seemingly unchanged for centuries and ever growing by accretion. It is in fact the “tongue of the angels.” (liisaan al mala-ika) pl

  80. Nuff Sed says:

    It seems that by the grace of God everything north of the citadel has fallen or is falling and things are winding down to mop up operations.
    “That which is falling should also be pushed.” – Nietzsche

  81. Nuff Sed says:

    Colonel:
    In answer to your latest comment in our conversation thread above (joined by LeaNder), while you are of course right about the miscreant and the probable pronounciation of his own name, that is not what governs. Explaining that would be too cumbersome in such a format, so I respectfully decline to do so. Nuff Sed.

  82. turcopolier says:

    Nuff Sed
    What do you teach? pl

  83. turcopolier says:

    pundita
    Yes, Doucet’s reporting from the refugee shelters was still slanted against the government but it began to approach reality. pl

  84. Cee says:

    Third eye,
    I saw a slight admission of that on CNN this AM.

  85. Will.2718 says:

    Whoah, this is a well known point. The Hashemites of Hijaz were supported by the British Egyptian Office by their agent TE Lawrence. On the other hand, the British India Office placed their bet on ibn-Saud, thus leading to the present medieval Kingdom of Saudi Barbaria.
    I know just little enough to be dangerous, but have always thought that if King Feisal has not been betrayed by the Brits to the French in setting up his Greater Syria kingdom in Damascus, world history would have taken a more positive turn.
    Also if the holy cities and Hejaz had remained with the Hashemites, things would have turned out much better. But then again, the Brits made all kinds of promises to everybody, including the Zionists

  86. Cee says:

    Fred,
    I’ll have to dig up my photos of McCain with the Takfiri Rats. I me that term too.
    One of them is responsible for beheading a Palestinian child.

  87. Tyler says:

    Croesus,
    Except you can be a heretic in Catholicism as there is a Catechism and a Magisterium. You’re doing cartwheels around the facts here.

  88. Tyler says:

    BNW,
    McCain, Lindsay Graham, and Jeff Flake are all trying to push through Gang of Eight as well.
    I so hope Flake gets removed from the Senate. That guy has been a cuck since he was sworn in.

  89. Nuff Sed says:

    Colonel:
    I’m not in academia, praise God. I write and translate (Islamic texts from Persian to English), concentrating on dogma and apologetics.
    Nuff Sed.

  90. turcopolier says:

    Nuff Sed
    OK. That explains everything. How did Ibn Sina become Avicenna in European usage? pl

  91. Nuff Sed says:

    Some fool probably mistransliterated his name “as pronounced”, and the rest is history. Also, recall that the v and b sounds are interchangeable, as in Spanish. Could have happened in Cordoba/ Cordova. Nuff Sed.

  92. turcopolier says:

    Nuff Sed
    Was Avicenna not from Bukhara? pl

  93. Ken Roberts says:

    Thanks LG for that part 1 video — in English. Very interesting.
    At about 44-minute mark, the topic of neighbourhood militias is talked about, statement made that the formation of govt-associated militia (eg, with comms to army to request assist) was instrumental in preventing or reducing terrorist attacks. I wondered about those militia groups.
    Russian news often has articles saying some-number of reconciliation agreements reached — for example, this link:
    http://tass.com/world/916563
    Are such agreements related to the role played by these local militias?

  94. Nuff Sed says:

    I was using Cordoba to illustrate the phonetic shift from b to v.

  95. Pundita says:

    Colonel, of course the most effective propaganda does contain truths. But you were able to pick out an approach to reality in the report because you’re very knowledgeable and an expert observer of things that most minds pass over as detail.
    For the vast majority of viewers, whatever truths she approached were obscured by the impression that her emphasis and the report’s visuals — and editing — created.
    IMO it was a sophisticated piece of propaganda, aimed at creating a specific impression. And if Doucet was the person who edited that report, then she is a real pro. My hat would be off to her.
    A recent Sputnik report mentioned that the Russian government realizes it has to find ways to counter the “information war” being waged against it by the West. The Russians will have to get up much earlier in the morning if they want any success at doing this. But it would be the same for Americans who are trying to fight ‘fake’ news.
    Fighting the best fake news in this era is like trying to fight a mirror. The persuasion techniques are based on brain research findings, not the clunky psychology experiments Behaviorists used in the 1950s to condition the responses of the masses.
    There’s no more guesswork, Colonel. Because of this, maybe I’m reading too much into Doucet’s reportage. Yet you’d understand why, if you saw the Charlie Rose PBS show in 2013 where he interviewed brain researchers who were working with governments, including the US, to convert findings about, say Alzheimer’s Disease into techniques of persuasion.
    The scientists were as much boasting in front of the camera about their successes in this area. I remember one scientist told a story about a government — I vaguely recall it was Scandinavian — that used research findings to mount a successful anti-litter campaign.
    They’d never gotten good responses with “Don’t litter” signs. They changed the wording to “People don’t litter” and that was Open Sesame.
    I recount the story to illustrate the precision of knowledge emerging from brain research about how the human animal thinks.
    Brave new world, with a vengeance.

  96. LeaNder says:

    the problem obtains irrespective of whether you are engaged in transcription or transliteration (because when your Latinization approach is to represent the text or sound “as pronounced”, then it is all transcription
    1) usage does usually not refer to the sound, but to meaning, or what people want to express with a word no matter if written or spoken.
    2) Look, I am aware that there is no clear cut boundary between transcription and transliteration from many a writing system to the other. Just as different languages use different sometimes mixed approaches to the letter/icon versus sound representation. I am also aware that authors dealing with matters usually have a section in the foreword discussing their choices in spelling, mostly, as I seem to recall, for what reasons they choose to deviate from standard systems and for what reasons. …
    **********
    Final question: Are you somewhat suggesting that the current Arabic pronunciation (within the limits you suggest) is more closely related to the Persian/(Farsi?) writing system. Or its chosen path of historical/present rendering of spoken versus written language? Refering to this:
    I also decided to go with an “as pronounced” system rather than the academicall preferred “as written” Latinization for the benefit of those who don’t know how the words are supposed to be pronounced.
    Personally I think it serves only to confuse nitwits like me who aren’t familiar with either, at least concerning names I may have come across before. Thus for what precise reason do you beg to differ?

  97. Jen says:

    They’re obviously working well together if they’ve got this far, that they can finally crush a de facto army of “jihadis” drawn from 100 different countries across the planet.

  98. FourthAndLong says:

    Didn’t Kim Philby’s papa deal with Ibn Saud — while in Whitehall’s employ, however covertly?? I realize it’s a tough one, as he was even more devious than his son.

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