Several big explosions rocked the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Friday as Israel said it carried out strikes on the headquarters of the Iran-backed paramilitary group Hezbollah.
Here’s what we know so far:
Where: CNN has geolocated a video shared on social media which showed multiple large plumes of smoke in an area of the city’s southern suburbs known as Dahiyeh, which is a densely populated area with a strong Hezbollah presence, and where many of the group’s leadership is based.
Intended target: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was the target of Israel’s strikes, an Israeli official told CNN. The country’s military is now working to verify whether he was killed in the strike, with a senior Israeli official saying it’s “too early to say” if Nasrallah is dead.
Impact: At least two people were killed and 76 injured, the Lebanese Ministry of Health said. Six buildings were completely destroyed, state news agency NNA reported. Video from the immediate aftermath of the attack showed a massive crater that dwarfed the rescuers navigating the rubble nearby. The area affected by the strikes appeared to be considerably larger than previous Israeli strikes on Beirut.
Weapons used: Images of the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut suggest 2,000-pound bombs were used, a former US Army explosive ordnance disposal expert has told CNN. “With the level of damage, it is hard to determine the exact munitions and amount, but likely multiple 2,000-pound bombs, Mk 84s, MPR-2000, or BLU-109 “bunker busters,” or a combination of them,” specialist Trevor Ball said after analyzing video and images of the strike on the Lebanese capital.
What Lebanon has said: Prime Minister Najib Mikati has urged the international community to help stop what he called Israeli “tyranny,” state news agency NNA reported Friday.
Netanyahu’s movements: The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office shared an image of Benjamin Netanyahu approving a strike on Beirut. He is returning to Israel a day early from the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where he made a combative speech earlier today.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-war-hezbollah-09-27-24/index.html
Comment: I’ve seen no confirmation that he’s dead or alive or even if he was in the bunkers under the apartment buildings. I have seen photos and videos of Syrians handing out sweets in celebration of his death. At the mosque in Idlib, the muezzin is calling out, “Thank Allah for the death of the oppressive Hassan Nasrallah.” Iranian women are celebrating inside Iran. The people of Idlib are crowding the streets in celebration.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemns the Israeli bombing in Beirut’s Dahiyeh district, calling it an “open and fragrant war crime that once again revealed the nature of state terrorism of this regime.”
I imagine we’ll get confirmation one way or the other very soon.
TTG
The Israelis killed the leader of Hibz’Allah before him. It fundamentally changes nothing.
Stefan, Hezbollah (hewing here into version most commonly used in English) did not lose their SecGen for a long long time. One constant theme in Hezbollah’s messaging to other Lebanese players had been that they had a cadre of immune leaders.
This current IDF campaign is deeper than anything done before. The lacklustre Hezbollah response also shows that command and control system as well as actually battle stations have been damaged significantly. The operation since the pager explosions, the removal of the rocket factory and then the gradual elimination of leadership turns back to the clock to the 1990s.
As long as the IDF do not attempt to walk around inside Southern Lebanon, Hezbollah hardly has a way to exact meaningful revenge, and likely has no longer the means to dominate Lebanese politics.
I’m interested to see what Nabih Berri and the other Lebanese after the obligatory remonstrances are going to do.
Wunduk –
Chatter on twitter is that Berri will try to enforce UN resolution 1701. Is that doable now? It did not work out well when the Lebanese Army tried it in 2006.
Berri is not the problem. He is dying anyhow.
For 1701 to be activated, an official request needs to come from Beirut.
Back in 2006, everyone missed the window. Res. 1701 (2006) was preconditioned on a Lebanese decision over what should happen with Hezbollah. UNIFIL was only to assist and act upon a Lebanese request. This did not come through. The Cedar Revolution had made too many feel that such a request might come, which led to the decision to empower the Lebanese. Once it became clear that they would not tackle Hezbollah, the moment of crisis and the threat to international peace and security had passed.
The Troop Contributing Countries had other pressing priorities (Iraq, Afghanistan). Also, TCCs were getting nervous about Israeli erratic and threatening behaviour.
At one point the resolution will need to be revised; my wishlist would include the word a plan and mandate to disarm Hezbollah plus all other groups in the area (HAMAS, PLF etc), a larger area of operation (including some Beirut suburbs) and secure funding for the Lebanese Army. An attached sanctions regime (asset freeze) against all suppliers of hardware, services and technology to Hezbollah and others would also be a requirement.
Well, Well….
Israel is a terrorist state, in Netanyahu’s speech to UN, replace the state Iran with the state named Israel, and then you can realize truth!!!
NEXT: We’ve been wondering about the 2nd largest US-embassy in Lebanon (43-acres), I propose this!
Why has Hezbollah been so compromised?
In its construction the spy/electronic network would be some of the FIRST infrastructure installed !!!
I told Col Lang years ago about that Embassy and predicted it would be used to film Netflix movies glorifying the CIA, Mossad and British SAS. The bozos who believe that Joe Biden has been trying to end this are even bigger clowns than the Bozos who believe anything Antony Blinken says.
Ok it’s quiz time again, your favorite. Honor system.
1-Who here has already noticed that Vladimir Putin’s birthday is October 7?
TTG, Leith, Fred, Walrus, mcohen, Eric Newhill, Yeah Right and everyone –
Holy Shittsky Section Championship Division Tournament:
Instructions – first read this, between dashed lines:
—————————-
The constellation Andromeda is known a “The Chained Woman.” Two of its most noticeable stars are Sirrah (its head) and Alamak (its feet), which are roughly on a line.
Read those names backwards.
https://www.star-registration.com/blogs/constellations-and-zodiac-signs/constellation-andromeda
http://www.helulf.se/Rongorongo/Dream%20Voyager/G/The%203rd%20Hour/Alamak/Alamak-1.htm
—————————-
Ok. No rush. You can click the links of course and read them in a browser. Ready? Honor system.
A) Raise your hand if your first thought was that the Democrats paid whichever organizations which maintain such astronomical data and bribed them to alter the names so that the great unwashed understand that the giggler is destined for victory and nothing under the heavens can change it?
B) Same for those who think the idea in A is absurd.
Tie breaker question.
For those who have digested the Oct 7 birthday factoid immediately above:
Do any of you still believe that the US and or UK gubbermints had nothing to do with the Oct 7th jailbreak into Israel?
(If you need help knowing why I ask that, maybe Princeton, Harvard, Stanford, and Law or Medical school isn’t exactly suited for you).
F&L,
The star names are indeed interesting, but I don’t see it as anything more than an interesting coincidence. Those stars were named long before Kamala Harris came on the scene. Unless you think her presidency was ordained by the heavens long ago.
TTG if you actually think I was doing anything other than goofing on the sort of nitwits who would make an inference like that then you need to get out more. Yes I also believe the names of the planets were invented by the same genius American senator or congressman who proposed legislation that pi should be changed to 3 for convenience. If it was proposed today the bill would stand a good chance of passing. And the ancient Greeks and Romans got their architectural ideas by time traveling to Washington DC and saying “well lookey here!” (Kindly take no offense, none intended).
Meanwhile
“First the message came, and then it was slambled”: a phone exploded in the hands of a man in Volgograd.
The phone was on the desktop. But after a strange text message, it caught fire.
(In Russian):
https://v1.ru/text/incidents/2024/09/28/74147261/
In Volgograd, a gas industry employee had an exploded phone in his hands. The emergency happened when a message came to the mobile device, which the man did not even have time to read. As a result, there was practically nothing left of the phone, and the man himself inhaled a pungent smell and got burns.
The phone exploded at work today. I got a message from Google, I didn’t even have time to read it, there are some lines there. I took it in my hands and it was a snay. Flame, fire, smoke. I managed to dodge, but I still got small burns. There was a lot of smoke. The phone burned tightly, – says the man. – The room of 12 squares was so smoked in five seconds that there was nothing to breathe. If it happened at home at night, when everyone was asleep, you could have suffocated. The smoke was yellow, acrustic, a couple of sighs – and the cough began. There was a flame for seven seconds. I saw a lot of this shit on YouTube, in the news, but I didn’t think it would happen to me. (More at link).
——————-
No I don’t necessarily think that the tribe who worship Exploding-Pager-Yahweh did it. But Exploding-Pager-Yahweh is also the deity of a much larger country whose capitol is not too far from you, and that country is a sworn enemy of Russia where Volgograd is located as I believe you know.
F&L,
I did think it was one of your numerology excursions. I’m still not sure those are for our entertainment or something you fervently believe.
There are occasionally stories about phones bursting into flames across this country. Those cheesy-assed Chinese made electric bikes and scooters seem to have the same problem.
TTG,
I didn’t know how deeply embedded numerology is in the history of mankind.
But then, I am not sure now, if I first realized this fact before I discovered the family history in numerology. Mind you, my own short childhood excursus was inspired by an encounter with some mathematic basics: the checksum. …
But it feels we did not deal with numerology here. Or did we? But etymology. Take a look at the second link. It’s all there, and it is Arabic. Thankfully, the Persians and Arabs saved Greek thought for us in the Occident.
F&L,
It’s an omen. Kamala is chained to evil forces. No coincidence that she was recently endorsed by Dick Cheney.
How much more ‘in your face’ could it be?
OK?
Eric I don’t dispute that if Dick Chainsaw is your bestie then you are chained to evil forces, not for one femto-second do I. May I ask however how you suddenly have switched to disliking a man who, while the oval office was occupied by an utterly unicellularly endowed President, one Dubya, you don’t appreciate a man who to defend his country only sequestered himself 43 floors below the naval observatory, broke every law of war concerning torture, had his own personal hit squad of assassin’s etc etc? Perhaps you never watched W, starring the manly Josh Brolin, where one learns that even his dad, the USN war hero, Yale graduate, former Director of the CIA, VP under Reagan for 8 yrs and then President for 4 yrs GHW Bush, despised his son the former cocaine addict and alcoholic etc. You cheer on Netanyahu for murdering untold and mounting numbers of babies, but poor old Dick Cheney comes in for a non-5 star review? Tis a puzzlement as our esteemed host might say.
In addition Eric, old Dick, that great man, shot his grouse hunting buddy, a prominent Texan who controlled the TX state funeral guild, in the face, And thought it was funny! As my boyhood friends would say while sharpening their switchblades: How can you not like a guy like that?
F&L,
I keep telling you that you mustn’t allow your perceptions to be colored by media memes, leading to sweeping false assumptions based on characterizations created by ninnies sequestered in truthless abysses like Washington DC and NYC.
I despised Bush Jr and Cheney for the same reason I despise Biden and Harris. They are all part of the same blob of scum. Left nostril or right nostril matters not. It’s all snot from the same nose.
Israel defending itself from homicidal maniacs has nothing to do with that. What you don’t seem to understand is that if Israel ceased to exist – or never existed – those same homicidal maniacs that Israel is eliminating would simply revert to killing each other. Israel is not robbing them of the pursuit of life, liberty and happiness. Those people have no appreciation of those things.
For them, happiness, freedom and peace means all of their enemies are dead, but within short time, someone will offend their honor or exhibit weakness and, like wolves, they will respond by initiating a new conflict, a new attempt to utterly vanquish the others. You can’t view the situation over there through American eyes.
The judges have rendered their decision Eric. You win on points.
Primary reason cited was “truthless abysses of Washington DC and NYC.” Second was the deep insight into the true nature of the sandal wearing savages. Thank you for getting me in touch with affectionate feelings for my fifty percent jewish roots Eric. My mother’s parents disowned her for marrying a new. My dad’s deeply orthodox parents, with exceeding regret allowed it and treated me as their grandchild, more or less. Their parents OTOH destroyed the finest man their family ever produced by denying him the right to marry his sweetheart because she was a blonde shiksa. A 6 ft 3 giant who was Pershing’s chief mechanic for a fleet of military vehicles, batted cleanup on the Army baseball team and pitched a nohitter against the same team who had a lineup including some of the most renowned hitters in history. He also knocked out the number 2 heavyweight in the world who was on a barnstorming tour and had asked if any of the farmboys wanted to get in the ring with him. The magnitude of the tyranny was so severe that they denied him the right to play pro ball when the Yankees signed him to a contract. By trade he was an inventor – a man with a fourth grade education who invented many of the automotive parts and concepts used for decades. If I showed you a photo of that man’s father next to one of Joseph Stalin, you might need at least a minute to determine who was who. My dad was a professional physicist and he’d argue with Amos for hours about how perpetual motion machines were impossible, because Amos was sure he had invented one. Intensely secretive less the idea be stolen, my dad was awestruck to discover after Amos died within his effects the sketches. It was virtually identical to the one that Sir Isaac Newton had worked out and designed. There’s a very dark side to the great successes of the Jewish people Eric, and I’m sure you know that already.
Charmingly didactic, Eric. 😉
LeaNder –
Not didactic, it’s more like trumpsplaining:
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Trumpsplaining
F&L,
Yes. As you know, I am 50% sandal wearer too, albeit Christian, which definitely represents a quantum improvement over the neighbors. My mother was a deep blue blood, very blond, WASP. I am fully steeped in the family and culture clashes involved. In other words, I understand you.
There is a dark side to any people’s success. It means that they defeated competitors. As I see it, you and I have a divergent perspective because I view the world – life itself – as a perpetual dog eat dog affair. You think the that dogs should play nice together and share the bone – or you pick one dog as being good and the other as being bad, not realizing they are both dogs. It’s a nice fantasy, but it will never happen; at least not in this world.
TTG – what am I missing? Why are Syrians in Idlib province celebrating — doesn’t it sound like Israeli Infowar? “See how gleeful they are over our massive strike – so how can we be criticized?
F&L,
Idlib was where Damascus shipped all the defeated/captured jihadis during the war. Hezbollah isn’t popular there.
TTG,
Isn’t Idlib province the open soar Col. Lang said had to be removed for the Syrian government to remain stable? Can’t imagine why anti Assad jihadis would not be welcomed in an anti Assad area.
Fred,
Exactly.
Fred
Shipping those jihadis to Idlib was the least bad option for the severely depleted SAA and the Syrian state.
It did however create a problem that remains and festers till this day. Our actions, as well as those of some of our “allies”, like Turkey made this problem almost impossible to solve.
F&L,
Things are not as they seem in western propaganda, especially the stuff created by liberals. In the MENA there are more factions and Machiavellian machinations than in the most dysfunctional Mafia family. They could very well be celebrating Nasrallah’s death and for reasons beyond your simple comprehension level.
As an aside, I am most impressed with the Israelis lately. Just when I think they’d be hard pressed to be any more awesome, they take it to the next level. I really shouldn’t be surprised, though, because I recognized – and predicted here many times – beginning years ago that Israel had learned from their last Lebanon incursion and would not repeat those mistakes, while Col Lang – and everyone else – allowed fantasy to cloud his judgment, relishing the imagined ass-kicking Israel would endure should they face-off again with Hezbollah.
I’ll say it again, for the hundredth time, these enemies of Israel are going to be, quite deservedly, beaten like bad dogs; and they’re going to take it, albeit with occasionally fits of whining and barking, because it’s the best they can do.
Eric you’re right about all of that except my low level of comprehension. I think they’re awesome too – in the military sense. How difficult is that with mighty America behind them? And I enjoy watching a good ass-whuppin’ as much as the next Neanderthal. You didn’t wonder that Colonel Lang was spreading disinformation intentionally so as to inspire unwarranted confidence in the sandal wearers minds, the better to congratulate yourself or did you eliminate that possibly by some reasoning process heretofore undisclosed to us? Everyone I know personally thought that meme of the heavily armed and therefore untouchable Hezbollah was codswallop. Granted some invasions are hard. But Israeli’s AF versus the sandal wearer’s tunnels always seemed a mismatch to me. A Saturday Night Live episode was: Napoleon with a fleet of B-52s at the Battle of Waterloo vs the duke of Wellington – who Wins? It’s roughly the same matchup in Lebanon today. Don’t forget that huge Beirut blast a few yrs ago. It was obvious what was coming then.
F&L,
I did not mean to say that you lack intelligence and therefore are generally challenged to comprehend. Rather, that you become moralizing with regards to the actions of Israel and, thus, exhibit a blind spot in that specific area of interest.
I did, for a minute, consider that Col Lang was producing disinformation concerning the sandaled ones’ capabilities. In fact, I always considered that anything he wrote here could be an info op. and not to be taken at face value. However, based on convos here and elsewhere, I think he was serious. As I have said, his blind spot was an overly romantic view of Islam and a touch of antisemitism, probably born of his interactions with neocons and similar types. We all have blind spots.
Eric Newhill,
Colonel Lang also had a lot of experience dealing directly with Israelis. He was not impressed.
Eric Newhill,
As I remember it the Colonel opined that Israel would get an ass-kicking from Hezbollah if the IDF sent troops into Lebanon like they did in 2006. So far Israel has not done so.
Bombing Lebanese targets from the air is ‘easy peasy lemon squeezy’ for the IDF. Driving Merkavas through twisty little valleys in southern Lebanon is a whole different kettle of fish:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzVEduKGUws
James,
You’re correct. However, I recall he also said that Hezbollah could – and would – do great damage to Israel with rockets/missiles/mortars/arty. Like there’d be so much incoming that Iron Dome would utterly fail.
TTG,
When you’ve made up your mind that you hate someone or something, it is becomes easy to downplay their strengths and over-emphasize what you perceive to be weaknesses. It devolved into mere mud slinging, IMHO.
I think there was more to his attitude than a face value assessment. Clearly, so far, Israel has survived in a hostile realm for a hundred years. They have to have something going for them. Who would not be impressed by the military successes of their most recent operations?
Actually, F&L, Napoleon did win the battle of Waterloo. Just that that meanie, tough old Blücher, rolled up and spoilt it all for him.
I would think that the odds of a single Hezbollah person being anywhere near their normal HQ is close to zero.
Thats what I was thinking.Frog of war.
Yeah, Right:
Was the ring with which Hezbollah claimed to have identified Nazi-rally’s death faked? It would also be a great way to keep him alive I guess. It’s difficult to forensically identify vaporized flesh and other tissue on short notice one might presume. Both Israel and Hezbollah have officially verified hid death by now. Being an 11th century superstitious terrorist madman isn’t an easy life these days. Nor is being a 21st century religious terrorist fanatic either — am I not right mcohen? But it’s easier on the feet than sandals and you don’t have to bow down on a carpet and face Mecca 5 times a day while your sheiks buy $5000 bottles of Champagne and drop tens of millions in the infidel’s casinos as they order their besties to bonesaw oh slowly away. “Oh the old bonesaw saws as I cheat Sharia law ..” (Sung to the tune of My Old Kentucky Home”
YR,
Everyone agrees he’s dead.
Maybe he was carry around a device that didn’t explode, but contained a geolocator, or something like that. Maybe his boyfriend was. Everyone has to have an HQ and everyone needs to get a little touch every now and again, especially when times are so tough that your comms are threatening to provide instantaneous free gender reassignment surgery.
Ribbit
Apparently some Lebanese Sunnis are also celebrating Nasrallah’s demise:
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1839828076743598439
I guess Bibi is trying to take care of all family business.
Does Israel want to reoccupy southern Lebanon? and Gaza? That didn’t work out so well the last time.
Stephanie you are absolutely right. Currently Hamas is alive and kicking they are lobbing drones, rockets etc, after almost a year of war. Where as Bibi is getting plane loads of weapons last time I read it was about 500 planes and complaining about Biden not supplying him weapons. Those Hamas guys are landlocked surrounded by Israel on 3 sides and Egypt on the fourth side (Egypt with all the BS they say regarding human disaster, are not helpful to Hamas. Hell they don’t even supply food to their coreligionists. Sure Hazbollah suffered a big blow with the loss of their charismatic leader but so did Iran with Suleimani but the fight goes on. Actually I think Hazbollah may prove to be more problematic to Israel since it has access to Iran and Russia through Syria. Like you said in 2006 Israel had to pull out of Lebanon after a month or so of fighting. This time they might last longer but that is questionable since the army is exhausted with the fight in Gaza. No matter there will be lot of carnage in the region. Thanks
Muralidhar Rao,
Hamas alive and kicking? Thanks for the laugh. Thanks for the Gaza SITREP via your third world propaganda dump.
In reality, Hamas is pretty well crushed out and it’s offensive capabilities 99% eliminated. Rocket attacks? Please. Have more respect for us. But go ahead. Tell us what attacks – dates? How many fired? Targets hit?
I’m shocked Eric. Don’t you watch Judge Nap and donate coffee to Larry J? Hamas has destroyed Israel. Not only that — Hezbollah and Hamas have declared a United Front! (Now they can piss in the same cup). To top it off Iran has painted one of its Tehran bridges red! The Israeli generals’ hair has turned white in fright.
F&L,
Ew! so vewy scawy…….and at the same time Russia has not only defeated Ukraine, but the entire west!
The USA is kaput! KAPUT I tell you!
LOL. I no longer waste time on Larry J, Judge Nap or any of the other inhabitants of upside-down world. As far as I will allow my tolerance for anti-reality to be stretched is TTG’s and Leith’s hardcore democrat party talking points. They both make up for it in other ways.
Just to point out that when IDF spokesman Mr Pointy held a press conference saying that the IDF is going to bomb these three buildings his entire justification was that the basement of those buildings were stuffed full of anti-ship missiles.
Not a word about it being a Hezbollah leadership hangout. It was entirely about the missiles that the IDF knew – absolutely knew, beyond a doubt – were in the basement.
So they bombed it and…. nothing. No secondary explosions. No erratic missiles screaming into the sky.
Nothing.
Did we say missiles? Nah, we never said that. That’s anti-semetism. We hit Nasrallah. We were always aiming for Nasrallah.
Yeah right ……….LOL “Mr pointy” weird looking dude indeed.ex special forces unit 812..
Evidently his parachute malfunctioned,and he descended quite rapidly,decided to land on a camel and took a hump.Never been the same since
The whole thing is unhinged.No stone must be left unturned until the hostages are returned safely.Tomorrow will be interesting.
YR –
Pointy? I take you mean Admiral Hagari. I see he wears that batwings badge signifying that he served with the Shayetet 13 naval commandos. So I have to wonder if he was involved in the failed Raid on Tyre in 2006? Or the Gaza flotilla raid in 2010 that turned into a PR disaster and breakdown of relations with Turkey?
TTG – this isn’t like the Ukrainian war. Right or wrong the Ukrainian war had seemed from the start, at least to me personally, to be a relatively simple business with the conclusion foreordained. Not here. It’s a cat’s cradle of forces, some of those forces being major powers well outside the region, and the outcome entirely unpredictable.
Unpredictable except in that the Palestinian Arabs, and the remnants of the Christian community there, are quite obviously due for more of the hammering they’ve been getting for a century. Naqba II, if the Israelis can achieve their ambition. Warsaw Ghetto, as we’re seeing at present, if they can’t.
Against that background of monstrous injustice and suffering it seems callous, or at least calculating, to enquire into how the conflict affects us in the West. But it’s undeniable that the conflict signals a final loss of Western credibility and that, to an extent, within the West itself.
We – the Americans, the Europeans, all of us – supply the bombs that rain down on civilians and the weapons and support that hold the Palestinians in subjection. And the world is not fooled by our fake attempts to stop the carnage, or the crocodile tears we shed as it continues. “Mr Netanyahu, we really must insist you stop bombing and shooting up civilians. You really are going too far. Absolutely awful. Here, have some more weapons and ammunition so you can keep doing it.” That fools nobody.
The Western Rules Based International Order had been tottering in Ukraine. Backing neo-Nazis always looked odd in our ostentatiously “Nie Wieder” West. But few in the West noticed the contradiction and the rest of the world was slow on the uptake. Here the entire world can see an attempted Endlösung – but conducted corpse by corpse on our screens for all to see. Biden’s lame attempts to hold the Israelis back, and the often vehement protests emerging from the EU, demonstrate that even in the West it is recognised that what is happening in wrong. But even as we recognise that that is so, we continue to enable it! What price that Rules Based Order when those who pretend to uphold it flout is so publicly themselves?
…………………….
So the big picture, as I see it. As I have seen it since that big discussion on the subject of Israel on Colonel Lang’s SST. I think the outcome of that discussion was that Israel would cease to exist without US backing, which seems even more obvious now.
Most put that US backing down to the influence of AIPAC. Most still do. For me, that’s another example of Mearsheimer getting it wrong – I believe that that US backing for Israel is inevitable given the large number of Evangelicals, Christian Zionists and Mormons in the American electorate, for whom support of Israel in a primary doctrinal imperative; AIPAC, therefore, being something of a red herring. That dispute aside, there’s no doubt that US backing is critical to Israel as was agreed in that discussion.
Also no doubt that that “cat’s cradle” of contending factions within the ME makes the Arab/Turkish response to the current crisis most difficult to evaluate. What are the Kurds up to, or the Saudis? What of the embittered Jihadis penned up in Idlib? How’s Erdogan using his Grey Wolves these days? And is the Sunni/Shia split manifesting itself again? Did it ever go away?
Such questions make of the ME an impenetrable tangle for most of us. Not for you, who with Colonel Lang took us expertly through the Syrian war on the old SST. These are the two of the questions that immediately sprang to mind after reading the article above.
1. I had assumed the Israeli attacks in Lebanon are made in the hope of provoking a major Hezbollah response that would bring the US in directly. Is this correct?
2. Why the celebrations in Iran?
EO,
I do think Israel expects the US to enter a wider war against Hezbollah. At least they want us to actively assist in shooting down Hezbollah, and possibly Iranian, rockets, drones and missiles. Or they may be fully convinced of their own superiority over Hezbollah that they want to end it now whether we are brought in or not.
The celebrations in Iran reflect the unrest across large swaths of the Iranian people against the current regime, the IRGC and any group associated with them.
“Right or wrong the Ukrainian war had seemed from the start, at least to me personally, to be a relatively simple business with the conclusion foreordained.”
Funny you say this. I just read a paper by CSIS that examines the failure of the Western analytical community in assessing the outcome of the war prior to February 2022. The broad consensus at that time was in consonance with your view. The same analytical failure seems to have occurred in Kremlin circles. In reality, the outcome in both wars is unpredictable.
@EO – “2. Why the celebrations in Iran?”
Could also be that they were celebrating the death of IRGC General Abbas Nilforushan who was in the room with Nasrallah and was also taken out by the Israeli bombs. Nilforushan was much hated because of his actions in suppression of protests after Mahsa Amini died after being beaten by Tehran’s hijab gendarme squad. Hundreds died in those protests including minors, 19,000 were arrested, several executed.
EO it sure isn’t like the Yourcranium war. If it was we’d have seen photos of the green drug addict’s ring and his severed limbs on our screens by mid March 2022. But “we’re not that way” and “we were led by the nose” says meek, gentle VVP. The Israelis don’t dick around. The world is impressed. Of course as you say, they have the entire arsenal and power of the USA and it’s degenerate Epstein-ed elite behind them. The only thing the Russians have behind them is whatever the Plywood Marshall (aka the Tuvan reindeer herder) and his thieving staff didn’t steal or sell to the enemy. Not to mention that the Ukrainians are a far cry from 11th century sandal wearers. Never on Exploding-Pager Yahweh’s Green Acres has there lived or breathed a more inept or incompetent commander than the RF President.
English, my friend, I am in the process of writing a long essay which exposes, I hope, the very troubling subconscious motivations behind his destruction of his huge, rich country. It’s complex, and extremely disturbing. As you know, Hitler utterly destroyed his country and Stalin, an equally prolific mass murderer, very nearly did the same. As a teaser I’ll leave this here.
Each of the triplet of dictators Hitler, Stalin and Putin have an astounding aspect of their childhood in common. They were preceded in birth order in their respective families by one or more sons who died early in childhood, leaving their parents grief stricken and hopelessly discouraged that they would never be able to conceive again. When that happens the parents treat a child who finally manages to be conceived and born as a miracle and live in excessive fear that that child will die too, causing them to be overprotective and adoring in the extreme. They can and do also elevate.the dead child to a status of sainthood and very unwisely compare the miracle survivor child to unbearable stress and unrealizable (in helpless childhood) desires for murderous revenge by comparing him unfavorably to the dead child, saying that he can never possibly live up. The personality splits induced by such ambiguity can drive the child mad. Think for a second what a strange historical coincidence that is — Hitler, Stalin and Putin all sharing that formative experience. Each a massively armed dictator – this latest one with the world’s largest nuclear weapon arsenal. I also think if I am right about the rest of my analysis that it may provide a roadmap for how to stop this thing. The crap about hitting deep into Russia absolutely must end, because you are thereby fulfilling his most deeply desired subconscious fantasy — to recreate the devastated conditions of the his post siege Leningrad childhood and the USSR more widely where his deeply resented younger brother who his parents worshipped and compared him with still lives because the subconscious is timeless and eternal. He wants everything for himself, and he will desrtoy everyone in Holy Mother Russia and the rest of the world if he doesn’t get his way. Remember. Think. I know how to stop him, and you can’t do it militarily because that’s his deepest wish. You have no conception how disturbed the man is. The formal “you”, my dear friend English Outsider, of course not you who can understand everything.
F&L,
That’s some fairly decent head shrinking.
Eric, thanks. I mean you’ve noticed that Putin is seriously deficient wrt reality testing, right? And has almost no ability to sense danger. One of many results of that sort of parenting. The Chinese are messed up too I’m that regard. The “number 1 son” is so spoiled that he has no idea that he can do wrong. One reason they are such addicted gamblers. They’re absolutely sure that manna from heaven will fall into their hands no matter what happens because mama will provide and his sisters can’t go to university because they slave to pay off his gambling debts.
E.O.,
There’s something that seems to be being left out. Routinely: Nobody wants to talk about it. How much time is left to sort things out in the Middle East, if that was your thing? (You can use the precious time many ways before you lose it.) Weatherwise, I mean. How many years? We are supposed to be moving into a 1.5C world, when it is already clear we are just briefly passing through it in this very year, 2024. We will enter the 2C world, which is 3.6F, in the 2030’s.
I assume that everyone here knows what that means.
But noone here seems to be able to find it in themselves even to talk about it. That old Scottish word might even be brought into play here. People then have become ‘cragfast’. So do you really think that the the Middle East is going to matter? People will be dealing with survival. As they can. Here and there. Hither and fucking yon. Or not. Some may find a way. People of Scottish background, for example, might well return to the (to me, surprising) old clan system, which never really went away in Nova Scotia, with laird and tacksman and the Sunday visit by the chief to certain key men , civilians still, who might be steel workers, at least at that point, for that one ceremonial drink of whisky. Driven there by his driver. And then move on to the next. In civil times the wives might really hate the custom, which comes on a Sunday, still extant on Cape Breton. At least not until they understand what is happening, that it is all about the survival of the clan. That is what I see coming. Industrial civilization–it’s all going to go down. There will be clans. They won’t be interracial.
But nobody wants to talk about what is to be done as it all goes down.
Tidewater,
The reason humans are ignoring climate change and fighting brainlessly as usual is that humans are murderous mammals and that’s their behavior, pure and simple. They can’t stop anymore than bees can stop building hives or bears hibernating. You may as well tell fish to walk on land and breathe air. Of course we have exceptions such as the better parts of our scientifc community. Those people (those who weren’t schizophrenic religious nutcases) used to be called prophets and what happened to prophets? The human animals burned them alive, crucified them etc etc. It is what it is. Maybe if a magical bug spray or a vaccine could be invented and the nitwits forced to take it they could be killed off in large enough numbers to slow this down. People are hard at work on it. I don’t know how feasible it is though. Lots of bodies to bury. Entire economies trashed etc. “Progress” has eliminated most of the checks on human population growth through agricultural breakthroughs, hygiene, medicine etc. The worst of the human animals have always been the leaders with rare exceptions and that hasn’t changed and won’t sans divine intervention. I’m appreciative of the importation thru illegal migration of the descendants of Aztec cannibals and child sacrificers rather than Germans and Scandinavians and other intelligent species of the human animals. I really am. I figure between the high IQ genocidal tribal Jews and the drug cartel murderer descendants of the cannibal child sacrificers, a solution to the problem of killing most of the human animals on earth might have a chance of being found.
“I’m Joe Biden and I approved this message!”
“And I’m Kamala Harris and so do I as long as the murder of most of the people on earth is democratic!”
I don’t understand everything, F&L. Still puzzling out your star wars comment. And while you’re here, the other day I thought I’d solved your anagram in a flash. Until I realised that BibliCal is not a word. That’s not how we spell it in England at any rate. I think you have some explaining to do there, setting your readers an insoluble puzzle.
I don’t understand Putin either. Don’t know a lot about him. Nor about the Russians. I may know a little, though only a little, about the early days of the war in the Donbass. That’s why I’m still glad the Russians finally got round to rescuing the people there. Hope that rescue wasn’t at the cost of mushroom clouds and don’t think it will be. Wish it hadn’t been at the cost of a million dead.
We could have avoided all that if we’d not ditched Minsk II. Or the Belarusian or Istanbul peace talks. I blame Merkel/Scholz and your President for that. Though I note that many Russians and not a few Americans blame the Brits. Don’t think we can blame Putin, anyway.
English, that opening paragraph of yours is a pathetic crock of malarkey. Even poor old mcohen solved that risibly elementary anagram. And you failed the being English test, nitwit. Any actual educated Brit I ever knew would have solved it in a split second. Do you have any idea how much more challenging British cryptic crosswords are than the ones in our newspapers? As was their schooling, at least in 1959 and 1960 when I was there. Was it Leith who said you are a Putin troll? This clinches it for me. I pay you a huge complement and practically kill myself to write out that psych sketch pecking on a phone with my thumb and you answer with an insult. Who would do that? A Putin troll upset that his hero was revealed to have origins eerily similar to Hitler and Stalin that’s who. And who in the living fuck would have to consult a dictionary to see if “biblical” is a word? A Russian, a Chinese, a Martian etc. You’re not the master spy you think you are English, not by a long shot. It’s a pity Col Lang isn’t around to boot you out.
We’ve already established that I’m 12th Directorate, F&L. No need to tell everyone. Living in a nice little Dacha they knocked up for me on a remote English hilltop. I think that’s called forward positioning in your language but we’d better check that usage out with our host. TTG’s au fait with military terminology as you and I are not.
“BibliCal” is not a word. Unless you’re Hamish de Breton-Gordon we tend to go steady on capitals in English. The Germans use them for nouns but even they don’t put them in the middle of an adjective. .
Are you Hamish de Bretton-Gordon? Don’t worry. Your secret is safe with me.
Ref your deep dive into psychology, that’s too deep for me by far I’m afraid. From what I’ve seen Putin and his team knock spots off our lot. Not just talking heads, that’s for sure. Unusually, Putin’s in a bit of a jam at the moment. It’s that old old remnant Ukraine problem.
Doesn’t want to occupy it – too much expense and bother. If he leaves it as it is it become a forward base from which NATO can run assassination and sabotage missions into Russia. And send missiles and drones across the border whenever NATO pleases. You ought to read the NYT and WAPO and find out about these things.
See the problem of remnant Ukraine? My bet is that Putin’s hoping the Ukrainians will solve it for him. Kick the puppet regime out, if they can, and put in one that runs the country properly for them. Don’t know if the Ukrainians will be up to that though. The French and Germans and we Brits aren’t, that’s for sure.
But that’s enough on Europoodles for today. Let’s turn to something more constructive. Your thoughts on this, please.
“No End Of A Lesson.”
“If we can only learn it.”
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/no-end-of-a-lesson
A: I don’t understand Putin either. Don’t know a lot about him. Nor about the Russians
B: From what I’ve seen Putin and his team knock spots off our lot. Not just talking heads, that’s for sure. Unusually, Putin’s in a bit of a jam at the moment. It’s that old remnant Ukraine problem. …
I don’t know much about Barbarossa Scholz either, LeaNder. Certainly not about any childhood tribulations he may have had. But you don’t have to do an in depth study of the man to know that he and his trusty sidekick, the winsome Bellatrix Lebaerbock, have screwed up the Heimat good and proper. And Europe with it.
Anyway, to work. You forgot:-
C. Aurelien.
That essay I linked to. Should say at the outset I don’t buy the notion that HMG has been running the United States since the ’50’s. One of the lesser Europoodles, in reality, let alone the fact that no UK politician in living memory could cope with running a bath unaided, not with any fair prospect of success.
The essay popped up on Andrei Martyanov’s site so I took from the essay, as one does, the points that interested me specifically:-
“In other words, Kipling is appealing to the essential pragmatism of the British and their ruling class. The system isn’t working, he says, we have made a horrible mess of things, let us have the sense to do better. And indeed, the British Army and to some extent the State itself did take the lessons to heart, and there were reforms. Can we imagine anything like that happening now?”
No. Such as Starmer and Sunak, if they stick around, are merely talking heads and pretty poor even at that.
“History may indeed record that finally the US acted as a restraining influence on some of the more delirious European leaders.”
That looks like being the case both with the Ukrainian war and the conflict in the ME.
In the Ukrainian case it’s been apparent for over a year that it’s the Euros talking big and the US, though they have big talkers there too, taking a more realistic approach. There are somewhere, deep in the bowels of the Pentagon, some people who can do the math and are holding the crazies back.
Yavoriv demonstrated at the start the limits on direct Western intervention in Ukraine. Various strikes since rammed home the point. Seems someone in the Pentagon noticed.
” It’s clear the Russians have no interest in a general military conflict with NATO, and indeed no need for one to achieve their strategic objective of military dominance of Europe.”
But is that the Russian strategic objective? If so, people like me are wrong. I’ve been arguing since before 2022 that the Russians have no interest in dominating Europe. They merely wish to close the door on it and make sure that door has locks.
Have also been arguing that we’re no prize, Europe, not any longer. A semi-derelict continent horribly dependent on supplies from outside. Where’s the profit in dominating that?
I’ll have to look at Aurelien’s other writings to see if he really believes the Russians are a threat to us. Look at Putin and Lavrov talking. Their eyes light up when they’re pottering around with their BRICS venture. They’re cautious and watchful when dealing with the US. They look plain bored when talking of the Euros. “They’re not still fussing around, are they? Put ’em on hold, would you. We’re busy.”
“In the meantime, when all else fails, you can always blame others, I suppose. This is what happened in Iraq, it is what happened in Afghanistan, and there are signs that it is what will happen in Ukraine. We seem already to have reached the stage where the various partners are staking their claims that it was Not My Fault. All the muttering about sending western combat units to Ukraine, which has produced nothing, as I predicted, was indeed intended to strike poses and score points (“we would have gone, but nobody would follow us.”) So the Blame Game has already started.”
The Blame Game. It’s been rumbling along since the failure of the sanctions war and we’ll be hearing a lot more of it. HMG’s going to blame the US for not allowing deep strikes. We’ll all blame the Germans for not following through – though they were the fiercest of the lot at the beginning. We’ll blame Italy and of course Hungary. And I’ve seen some in the US blaming the Ukrainians, of all people, for not doing what they should have done in the “counter-offensive”. As if the West hadn’t been running the war since it started!
The Ukrainians will blame us. All the standing ovations and “as long as it takes” talk. And then we load the poor devils up with our out of date equipment and leave them in the lurch. That’s how most of the Ukrainians will see it and I rather think they’ll be right.
“don’t stumble into wars without making sure you are prepared for them.”
Wasn’t quite as bad as that. The sanctions war was very well prepared and had it worked quickly – within a month or so – it might have given the RF a rough time or even broken it up.
That was the plan. A rotten plan, I always maintained. A sanctions war against a country that was self-sufficient and had a big economy was dumb, my view. But at least it was a plan of sorts.
The trouble was, no government in the West had prepared a fall-back if the sanctions war didn’t work. We then stumbled along with various military bits of nonsense that were clearly not prepared at all. No surge capacity to speak of. No generals of any use – the Milley/Cavoli/Radakin trio were a macabre comedy act, as Krynki and so much else demonstrated. Merely pushing the Ukrainians into the killing fields until we ran out of them.
Call that a plan? I don’t. “Don’t stumble into wars without making sure you are prepared for them.” Yes. Quite.
“Of all the “lessons that the war in Ukraine has so far taught us, it is that wars kill people. Lots of people. This fact, considered self-evident until quite recently, is nowhere to be found in the discourses of our politicians and our pundits, because other people with funny names are doing the dying.”
But that was OK, as long as the armchair warriors of the West didn’t have to do any of the dying themselves. For me in England that was the most repulsive aspect of the affair. All waving their blue and yellow flags and talking big about smashing the Ruskies. All claiming that the Ukrainians were in the front line of the “battle for our democratic values”. None of the people I saw doing that caring to put themselves at risk in that battle. Or even their pockets, to any extent. Such dauntless heroes.
This:- “To bring this discussion down to earth, let’s conclude with a brief worked example. Imagine that, in spite of the horrendous problems I have described elsewhere, defence budgets could be increased, armies expanded and equipment bought to confront the “Russian Threat.” Let’s make up a minimally plausible scenario: anti Russian unrest and violence in the Baltic States, threats of Russian intervention. Let’s wave away the practical problems, and assume that a handful of NATO mechanised brigades could be sent as a “deterrent” and then real fighting breaks out.
One of these brigades (typically 3-4000 soldiers these days) is from your country. In a couple of days of fighting, it loses perhaps a thousand dead and twice that number of wounded, largely from missile and artillery strikes, and without seriously engaging the enemy. Let those numbers (typical of what has happened in Ukraine) roll around in your mind for a moment. Could our societies, our media, our political systems, even begin to cope with that? Where would they even start?”
I see Aurelien has put the “Russian Threat” in inverted commas there. So he’s maybe sceptical about the reality of that threat as well. He gets the reality we were all ignoring bang on. And the reality is that we deliberately plunged the Russians and Ukrainians into a murderous war purely because we were dumb enough to believe the nonsense our politicians and journalists fed us. “b”, over on the Moon of Alabama, called that straightforwardly a “crime”.
So it was. Unless we can grasp the dimensions of that crime, see where we went wrong and why, I doubt very much that the rethink Aurelien is calling for in that essay is a rethink we in the West shall undertake.
Unless we find ourselves able to engage in that rethink, root and branch and no evasion, I don’t think there’s much of a future for us in the West.
………………………………
Same for you, LeaNder. Some uncomfortable truths for Germany too, and ones you’d do well not to run away from.
You’re going to have to get to grips with backing neo-Nazis – a fact no German politician I’ve seen dare touch.
You’re going to have to stop sweeping North Stream under the carpet. Ridiculous, that the most powerful country in Europe can get major infrastructure blown up and no one dares get to the bottom of it.
You’re going to have to stop suppressing dissidents. This isn’t the ’30’s, LeaNder, or shouldn’t be.
You’re going to have to stop blaming the big bad predatory United States for the disaster. That’s already a major industry in Germany, playing the innocent tricked into going wrong by Uncle Sam.
Bullshit. You’re going to have to look at what Merkel was up to, and then Scholz, and recognise that you were no junior partner in crime in this affair. The Ukrainian disaster could not have happened without Germany, the only country in Europe that could have prevented it, being fully as committed to it and as active in going for it as the Washington neocons.
Shall you undertake that root and branch examination of German responsibility? Or will you hide behind others and pretend you’re the injured innocent?
Doesn’t look good at the moment, but unless some honesty and light is let into the murky shambles that is German politics at present, I don’t see much hope for your country or for Europe.
Leander I’m at a loss here. Did you forget to include the instructions: “Circle the letter A or B, which is the more idiotic in your opinion of the two EO citations on offer.”
Leander I’m at a loss here. …
it felt he needed a chance to fully vent his spleen on Barbarossa & his “bride that left the alter”, aka Merkel, his top tale, F&L. …
It worked as intended.
E o
I read the link.Bit of a wishful think.
All those immigrants are going to be put to work in manufacturing.Only way to counter china.
The American military industrial machine thrives on warfare.At the moment it is supplying 2 wars but a third one is coming soon.
Business will be booming
mcohen – never sure when you’re being ironic. But if you’re not, no Western defence industrial base thrives on warfare, not on real war.
Real war is damn risky. You can get your soldiers killed and crippled in large numbers. The electorate doesn’t like it, not unless there’s a clear threat to the nation’s existence.
And fiddle about with voting fraud around the edges as much as you please, what the electorate likes is still one of the factors or be taken into account when it comes to a career in politics
Little wars are OK, when against greatly inferior opponents. Huge amounts of equipment deployed and casualties low. Our casualties, anyway.
Proxy wars even better. Huger amounts of equipment deployed. Get shot of the old stuff and plenty of contracts to develop and manufacture the new. One of the crazies here explaining briefly how that goes. Set to around 11mins and lasts a minute. Mrs Nuland doesn’t hang around:-
https://youtu.be/QkL0boUFmCc?t=687
Real wars, no. Not just because of casualties but because for the big powers like the US real wars against other big powers are unwinnable. Bound to go nuclear if they get out of hand. Nobody “wins” that.
Also the enemy sometimes manages to produce more effective weaponry. A video of those more effective weapons shooting up ours has a depressing effect on overseas sales.
So real war isn’t really something you want to see your products used for. The threat of war, however, yes. Talk up that threat and the electorate will put up with spending unimaginable amounts of money to develop and produce equipment. Good for employment too, and not just men bashing steel around. I’m seeing more and more ads for “Lethality Engineers” and all sorts of associated work needed to design the weaponry.
That also fits with the pattern of American politics. Since Lincoln’s time, before for all I know, the primary function of the American Senator has been to bring back the bacon for his home state. Bacon in the form of a defence contract giving steady employment to thousands is therefore much sought after.
Much the same in Europe. That’s why the politicians and journalists are still working hard at selling the Russia Threat to us. Why we’re seeing more and more of this sort of stuff:-
https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/360/international-relations-and-defence-committee/news/202994/ukraine-a-wakeup-call-for-the-uk-and-nato/
Me, I think we’re on the wrong tack there. If the combined West, a billion of the richest people in the world, with several hundreds of thousands of the toughest fighters in Europe at our disposal, can’t manage to defeat one hundred and fifty million Russians, there’s more wrong than that House of Lords report says. We need to be looking at more fundamental issues, such as what the military types call “doctrine”. One of the reasons we lost to the Russians was that our generals were amateur night. So that side of our defence need to be looked at too.
And their Lordships are naturally fighting the last war, though it’s extremely unlikely that we’ll see a one-off like the Ukrainian war ever again.
Not that any of that really matters to the people who matter. The Cold War II we’re being shepherded into won’t be much to do with preparing for real war. We’ve no intention of fighting one. “Go long Rheinmetall” is what Cold War II is all about.
In the correlation of forces diagram, more and more arrows are pointed at Israel. Each action they take produces more arrows. How can one conclude anything other than Israelis are dumb.
drifter
And Alexander the Great from little Macedonia didn’t conquer the known world, did he? Rather rapidly too if I recall.
The Israelis will be dumb somewhere between 10,000 and 20,000 years after I manage to clean and jerk a 900 pound barbell using only my dick.
they’re not dumb. just over-committed to their narrative. quite understandable. & hyper committed to self-determination. like the not-so-dumb either Ukrainians.
Kit Klarenberg writes “… after US murdered Genral Suleimani, footage of Syrians celebrating his death went viral. The clip was secretly produced by Global Strategy Network, an intelligence cutout run by Richard Barrett, a veteran MI6 operative who ran the agency’s torture program.”
https://x.com/KitKlarenberg/status/1840038490135744867
“Kiev in three days” is rolling right along. This was last night, translated below.
————————-
Fires broke out in Yeisk and Rostov.
https://korrespondent.net/world/russia/4719654-v-eiske-y-rostove-vspykhnuly-pozhary-sotssety
In several regions of Russia, an air threat was declared that night, during which explosions were heard at the military airfield. It was also loud in a number of other settlements.
After the drone attack near the military airfield in the Russian Yeisk of the Krasnodar Territory, a large-scale fire broke out. This was reported by the Cheka-OGPU channel on the night of Sunday, September 29.
“A severe fire in Rostov after the UAV attack and air defense work,” the message says.
Shortly after that, the channel reported that the fire was intensifying.
A video of the fire in Rostov, which broke out during the drone attack and air defense work, is also published.
In addition, explosions are reported in Volgodonsk in the Rostov region.
Explosions were also heard in Tsimlyansk, Volgodonsk and Samara, Rostov region. Meanwhile, the governors of several Russian regions report the shooting down of drones.
Recall that this night it was reported about explosions at the airfield in Yeisk, which had already been repeatedly attacked earlier. In particular, in June, the “shahid” warehouse was destroyed there.
Reportedly a huge ammo depot was hit very hard near Volgograd. Hard to verify because both sides lie about everything but given all the other successful attacks it’s absurd not to believe it. The heroes in the Kremlin have apparently ordered their press not to use the Russian word for “explosion.” Explosions are now “claps.” As in a report on September 11, 2001 from American media: “Two large claps were heard this morning in downtown Manhattan.” The Russians on Telegram are not buying any part of it, and are furious at the bald Botox addict’s helmsmanship of all mankind, but their jokes are hilarious, at least there’s that.
On the Volga. Incredible. Will the dwarf judo master respond with his nukes? These attacks are literally coming almost on the day after he read out his new policies at the RF security council.
The Israelis are not dumb. They are trying to provoke a conflict now, because in 5 years time they wouldn’t stand a chance against the axis of resistance. The Israelis will always have a top notch airforce and intelligence, but you can’t successfully fight against tens of thousands of drones and rockets, with experienced enemy soldiers on the ground.
Even now their chances are not good and they are counting on dragging the USA in the fight (which is certain, as it seems that the USA, although a great power, has no agency in this question), which will make the conflict unpredictable and most likely everybody will lose. It comes down to it- was Zhirinovsky correct with his predictions or not?
The problem with the Israelis is an absolute lack of empathy for the enemy and for human life in general and karma is a bitch.
Jovan.
The israeli lack of empathy is a work in progress.
The nation is still young and needs to grow and mature.I really do not know that many Israelites as I like to call them but the one’s I have meet are Bauhaus brutal minimalists with an over-abundance of nose hair.
Karma is indeed a chameleon.
Regards Mcohen
mcohen,
To be kind to your enemies is to be cruel to yourself and your family.
I found Jovans statement about Israeli lack of empathy so off the charts that I decided a dollop of schmaltz was in order.Turns a troll pink.
I did too mcohen. I would have preferred he stop pussy-footing around and called them despicable demons without a single shred of humanity whatsoever, reminiscent of raving mad dogs. But then I figured it would be unfair to mad dogs .
Eric,
Does that mean that the Ottomans/Turks had a right to be (unimaginably) cruel towards the Armenians who lived in the Ottoman empire?
Jovan,
It has nothing to do “rights”. The Turks were stronger, had the means and motive. So they did what they wanted. What are these “rights” that people are always going on about? Who decides what is right? It sounds like the sort of thing my third grade teacher would come up with to create a new generation of sheep.
Well there are plenty of people in the world that didn’t attend that school or have Ms. Wilson as a teacher – or if they did, they pay attention in class. The Turks being but one example, but really also just about every other group of national leaders that ever existed. Some national leaders that have to more or less answer to Ms. Wilson’s sheep, keep their aggression on the down low. The soldiers of such nations, having also been exposed to Ms Wilson’s sophistry and acculturation methods, are less likely than Turks to slaughter women and children or get their jollies crucifying, raping with bayonets and that sort of thing. So I guess Ms Wilson has added some gentility to the world. Imperialism lite if you will. I digress…..
That said, the Armenians, Assyrians and Greeks that the Turks killed were not threatening the Turks in any way. The victims were not “enemies” in that sense. They did not seek the destruction of Turkey as the Palestinians and Iranians do of Israel. Thus, the Turks acted out of pure barbaric aggression, as muslims are won’t to do. So both your extrapolation and your comparison are not appropriate.
The number killed through the various and ongoing atrocities of the Anglo-American empire dwarfs the actions of those ghoulish “New Turks.”
It’s even catching up and surpassing the worst. We might have exceeded Mao by now.
Locate me a viler hyena than Madeline Albright of “500,000 dead Iraqi children were worth it” fame. Find me a more reptilian monster.
F&L,
You are arbitrarily limiting your tally of Turk victims to the 1915 +/- period. You are ignoring the various Turk programs against Christians living in the Levant prior to that final solution. More critically, you are ignoring all the Muslim invasions of Europe, many led by Turks, over centuries, that resulted in huge numbers of deaths and incalculable misery.
I say let’s raise a glass to Vlad The Impaler – a leader who knew how best to deal with Turks/muslim aggression. No, Ms Wilson would not approve, but at least she’d be alive with her “virtue” intact.
mcohen,
As someone with an over-abundance of nose hair I take umbrage at your hate speech! When Canada’s bill C-63 passes everyone involved in this discussion will be sent to re-education camps to be taught the dangers of spreading disinformation about nose hair. I am keeping a list.
James.
It is not the nose hair itself thats the problem but the dingleberries clinging to them.
Anyway while I was in Calgary I went to this rodeo that they hold once a year.Some sort of show and they had these cowboys roping calves in 20 seconds and so on and sitting next to me was this genteman who had a set of plaited 2 inch long nose hairs plaits.
While we watching the show the man sneezed and then without missing a beat started waxing each plait with said mucous.
Well that did it for me and I moved to standing room out the front.who knows what other hair he plaits.
Know what I mean.James.
Jovan P
The only two things the Israelis find attractive about the word “Empathy” are found at the beginning and ending of that same word.
1- EMP which they take to mean “Electro Magnetic Pulse,” because it goes so nicely before an all-out nuclear weapons attack.
2- Pathy because it is from an ancient Greek root indicating disease, and of course their favorite character and personality-disorder —
psychopathy, which their leadership as well as the leadership of most nations posess in overflowing abundance.
Show of hands for today’s prize competitions. Honor system.
How many figured out pretty quickly that the operation to install Eric Adams as Mayor of NYC and then bust him as a hopelessly corrupt and clueless imbecile was nothing more than the way you still get to say “I told you these darkies were unteachable retards” in the WOKE era?
TTG – this autotranslating article from this morning’s ВЗГЛД might interest you..
Includes estimated timeslines for various future weapons delivery.
Why Russia’s Small Neighbors Are Dangerous in a Big War
https://tinyurl.com/9zjymjrr.
Excerpt:
These forces will comprise eight brigades. Three of them will be mechanized, with infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and light tanks (170 units for Latvia), and five will be infantry mechanized, equipped with vehicles, artillery, mortars and anti-tank weapons. Along with them, there will be well-trained and equipped special forces, including not only sabotage and reconnaissance units, but also combat swimmers.
The total number of the entire group is about 80,000 people. This is approximately ten times more than the Ukrainian Armed Forces had in Mariupol, and several times more than the Ukrainian Armed Forces sent to the Kursk region.
Eric,
it is very important what you third grade teacher MS Wilson tried to teach you.
As you know, in Christianity the sheep is not necessary a metaphor for something bad. It is bad if the sheep are not wise. I am aware that this world loves ”winners”. But the definition of ”victory”, and ”good” and ,,bad” is the interesting part. Mostly people look at it through the words of some African chieftain when he sad that ”good” is when they attack the neighbouring village, steal their cattle and women, and ”bad” is when the other side does it to them.
Once Colonel Lang wrote why the indigenous people of the USA died out mostly by course of action of the colonists by writing ,,it was us or them”. Some time later I asked him what he meant by those words, and he answered that it was about the concept of some kind of evolutionism (maybe creative, I don’t remember).
Jovan,
I assume you’re writing those lofty words from some safe and cozy location. Good!
I suggest that if you and your loved ones were under constant threat of death via sword, starvation, and other means – right now, maybe tomorrow, maybe next week, but inevitably – your idea of “winning” would be eliminating the enemy by whatever means is most efficient and viable.
Col Lang also once wrote, in response to someone criticizing the American colonists, that it is unrealistic to expect that America would left untouched as a giant nature preserve, including the native people. Col Lang was a highly intelligent wise man who could see all facets of most situations.
This is all relevant to Israel. It is unrealistic that Jews would not seek safety in their historic homeland, which was largely undeveloped when Zionism began. It is unrealistic that they would allow sworn enemies to continue to threaten existential war and launch mass murder attacks. That’s it. It’s very simple once you accept that Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah are demonstrated implacable existential foes. All the moralizing over historic wrongs – to the extent that any of it isn’t distorted propaganda – is meaningless. Today and tomorrow are what matters.
Eric, there are always people who are weak etc and people who are strong but the west, particularly the US which is safely snug between two oceans has since the end of the cold war gone through a particularly vegetarian series of decades which has given rise to the illusion among the elites, particularly the young elites, that a world without violence is a perfectly feasible scenario. And that it should be put into practice rapidly with radical maximalism. This illusion prevailed for so long that it has put down roots, and feelings arose that this entire world was invented only so the weak and unprotected would feel safe and secure in it.
Words don’t exist to express how ridiculously such a point of view is, but remember these elite kids never had to work a day in their lives and have been swimming in money since day one. We can’t wrap our heads around how anyone can be so stupid but we haven’t been sheltered and spoiled.
Obviously those decades are over now and the twerpy rich woke are shocked to find out that force never went away. In the future the world will eventually come to face the weak but it won’t be because the strong have made an agreement with the weak but only because the strong will agree among themselves that it is better for them to protect the weak because only a world in which the weak are protected can become and remain stable. Absent a miracle, we will now have to go through a fairly long period of restoring the right of force before the conditions for restoring the power of law arise.
F&L
Here’s a song for you to listen to
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iGO34WgnKg
Jovan P
Far be it from me to be unappreciative of a man named Jove!
I’m not sure what you mean to imply by that remark. That I’m particularly sinful and need to be warned about the day of Judgement more than the next guy or gal? I understand quite well that most people intensely dislike me, Jovan P. Whatever the case may be, the song is beautiful. I’ve always adored sacred music.
Peter Ilyich Tchaikovsky — Hymn of the Orthodox Cherubim
https://youtu.be/OPlK5HwFxcw
As a total aside, I think it is worth noting the address Julian Assange gave after his release from his 14 years of imprisonment.
I think it is quite moving.
https://original.antiwar.com/assange/2024/10/01/im-free-because-i-pled-guilty-to-journalism/