Here’s a chance to chime in on last night’s State of the Union speech. My primary observation is that Trump has been consistent in his message. What he’s been saying since being in office is what he said last night. No surprises. I thought he’s have more to say on Ukraine, NATO and Russia, but I doubt that his primary concern right now.
TTG
As usual, he lied a lot, talked too much and exploited as many tragedies as possible. It is now obvious that he and Elon are coming for Social Security. Of course, he did not help his legal team that is claiming that Elon Musk is not head of DOGE, as he told the whole world that he is. Then, as he was leaving, he was overheard telling the Chief Justice that he appreciated what he had done for him. I am sure he didn’t want to hear that.
He mentioned that interest rates were coming down. He did not say why, which has to do with investors selling stocks and buying bonds that are safer. It is expected that the GDP will lose 3% in Q1 and he will own all of that and his tariffs may very well make Q2 worse.
He also provided even more promises that are unlikely to materialize. Remember that he was going to bring down grocery prices on Day 1.
Lars,
So that 13-year-old black boy really didn’t survive cancer?
Laken Riley really didn’t die? That wildlife preserve didn’t get renamed, like “Mt. McKinley”?
How about the Lesotho? Yeah, I actually knew where that was, just why the hell are we paying them anything?
Interest rates are impacted by stock sales? “Who , Whom” Lars? Who is selling enough to drive down Tbill rates? How about foreign purchase of those, any impact?
GDP: does government spending factor into that, sir? Say yes! And that means, drum roll, less government spending – like on USAID fraud – means lower GDP.
I did like the “Get off my lawn!” grandpa waving his cane around. And not a single Democrat standing for honoring a 13-year-old cancer survivor, or someone getting appointed to the USMA, or anything else. Inspiring visionary imagery leadership from the Democrats.
Well, no, that 13 year-old boy has survived…but Trump is cutting childhood cancer research so let’s hope no other child ever gets cancer. Trump is like a carnival barker…come see the “star of the day” and pay for the privilege.
Veterans are going to be getting shafted…Biden hired up to meet demand and now 80,000 of those peeps will be fired.
Lars
How would you resolve 36 trillion of debt, budget deficit etc ?
4 years of Trump + 8 years of Vance might actually put the US on the right track.
Bilko,
Given trump’s four year track record of ballooning the debt, he’s not going to shrink it in the next four.
TTG
His first 4 years were a test run. He was inexperienced and under constant and immense pressure.
I see now a much more controlled and mature person.
Vance is also a much better pick than Pence was. Musk, i dont know what to think of him.
We’ll see what happens. I’m optimistic.
Bilko,
In addition to continuing his earlier tax cuts, which wasn’t factored into today’s debt, he’s pushing for even more tax cuts for his well to do friends.
TTG
the other side has well to do friends as well, maybe it’s just that the manner of filling their pockets is different.
Hunter Biden & Burisma for example.
Hundreds of thousands of dollars for a speech. the list is long and the swamp is deep.
Bilko –
“People Are Paying Millions to Dine With Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.”
“Business leaders are paying as much as $5 million to meet one-on-one with the president at his Florida compound, sources tell WIRED, while others are paying $1 million apiece to dine with him in a group setting.”
“The speaking fees for A-list celebrities, politicians, business leaders and other luminaries can easily stretch into the six-figure range and beyond. The most elite orators can command $500,000 or more just to take the stage for an hour or two. Fees of $100,000 to $300,000 are common for renowned academics, authors, and public figures.”
Trump earned $12 million in speaking fees after leaving the WH in 2021. Melania earned six figures every time she spoke at an event.
If you take the advice from that well known philosopher Willy Sutton, you tax the wealthiest people a lot and use the proceeds to pay down the debt. Just as if you remove the cap, you will bolster Social Security. The US had a serious debt problem after WWII and that is how it was paid down over the decades, until 1981, when it started to go back up again. The marginal rate was up to 90%, so the wealthy had to give away a lot of money to lower their taxes and this caused the economy to grow substantially during these years. To think Trump will do what is needed is just more wishful thinking that is so prevalent of his supporters. But what may happen is that the US$ is devalued 50%, which will do the job. I am sure American consumers will not be happy about it though.
Lars,
At some point, you will be considered wealthy; maybe even a Kulak.
Lars,
“The US had a serious debt problem after WWII …”
How were the European and Asian nations doing? What an ignorant statement. Marshal Plan? What’s that. Japanese re-industrialization prompted by the Korean War? Oh, wait, Sweden was trading with the Germans in WW2 and didn’t have squat to do on the far side of the world then. Those pieces of basic eduction were probably not provided for you before you arrived on our shores.
Fred,
Paying for the war increased the US debt to GDP ratio from 42% in fiscal year 1941 to 106% in 1946, but then it started to fall and reached a trough of 23% in fiscal year 1974. the primary reason for that drop was the government taking in more revenue (taxes) than government expenditures. And those were some freaking high taxes while the economy still grew.
Trump has Musk tinkering in areas that will significantly pay down the debt. Most of what they are doing is hitting their “wok’ programs.
Clinton did a much better job in cutting into the National debt. He did in patiently, with well thought out plans…not the knee jerk way the Trump/Musk “bulls in a China shop”doing.
One aspect, Clinton went after the high paid middle managers, that was where the $ was, not the low paid ones on probation status.
Here are recommendations by a consortium of left/right think tanks: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/23/national-debt-fix-peterson-foundation/
Proposed Social Security reforms enjoyed the most consensus. The program will become insolvent in a bit more than a decade, and all proposals extend solvency by at least 30 years. A majority of the think tanks favor both increasing the cap on earnings subject to the payroll tax and raising the retirement age. The savings would fund a basic minimum benefit with $741 billion left for deficit reduction, under the most conservative estimates. Such a combination shows that there are bipartisan ways to increase Social Security solvency while shoring up benefits for those who need them most.
Nearly half of the institutions favor streamlining Parts A, B and D of Medicare. There are many other viable reform proposals for the program, but consolidating the payment structure into a single plan alone would save more than $100 billion without sacrificing quality of care.
Thornier still, politically and fiscally, are the tax cuts. The next administration and Congress have to address this issue when the GOP tax law’s individual cuts expire in 2025. The lower rates passed by Mr. Trump for the bottom three tax brackets should be maintained while the top marginal tax rate on high-income earners should return to 39.6 percent, up from its current 37 percent. All but two of the think tanks also favor extending the full repeal of the personal exemptions passed in the 2017 tax cuts and set to expire at the end of 2025. That’s one of the highest revenue-generating proposals, with nearly $2 trillion saved over 10 years.
More in depth:
file:///C:/Users/alspa/Downloads/PGPF_Solutions_Initiative_2024_Full_Report_07.16.2024.pdf
Pretty shocking:
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/03/04/ethical-concerns-surround-sen-joni-ernsts-relationships-top-military-officials-who-lobbied-her.html
Here is the ProPublica article from which the Military.com article is derived:
https://www.propublica.org/article/joni-ernst-congress-military-relationships
Keith,
Looks like they missed leaking this before the election so now, just in time, it hits the dying media outlets aligned with the perpetual war party.
I wondered if behavior like that would affect her ability to retain a security clearance.
Googling turned up this:
Security Clearance Guideline D: Sexual Behaviors
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/security-clearance-guideline-d-sexual-behaviors-chelley-carroll-worth
“creates susceptibility to coercion”
It is remarkable to me the things that DO NOT affect the ability to obtain a security clearance.
TTG – What’s happening with Trump cutting off intel support to Ukraine? Is it just Ratcliffe at the CIA doing so? Or does it include NSA and others? What about Five-Eyes, there are rumors that they’ve been warned to not pass any intel to Ukraine. Will Starmer and Trudeau fall in line – I doubt it. And much of non-five-eyes Europe has their own intel assets facing Russia. .Reportedly it was the Estonians who gave Ukraine early warning of the attack on Hostomel.
My thoughts are that Ukraine, with all her Native Russian speakers, probably has much better HUMINT sources within Russia than the CIA. As far as IMINT, Ukraine owns two ICEYES synthetic aperture radar satellites that can see at night and through cloud cover. Resolution reportedly can be zoomed in to 10 inches. They also have access to other ICEYES birds. They are not slouches in SIGINT either. As far as COMINT, they speak the language and it’s subtleties better than any US born stringer at NSA.
The big question is whether Trump or Tulsi will reverse the intelligence flow and pass on critical Ukrainian military locations to Putin?
A separate thread please.
leith,
I figured cutting off US intelligence support would be far more detrimental to Ukraine’s war effort than the cut off of material aid. I do think Ukraine’s allies can fill a lot of the gaps created and Ukrainian HUMINT is undoubtedly the best HUMINT available.
Not sure what will happen to FIVE EYES. Given the possibility that we could possibly start sharing with Moscow, sharing with the US could stop. With some of the characters on Trump’s team, I wouldn’t bet that it couldn’t happen. Trump might figure that would bring the war to a conclusion. I don’t think he gives a damn about Ukraine as long as he can say the fighting stops.
TTG,
“Given the possibility that we could possibly start sharing with Moscow…”
What numerical value do you give that?
What evidence do you have that this would be ordered?
Fred,
The intel cut off has been refined to halting “all intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, other than information needed for “force protection” — protecting Ukrainian troops under attack.” Don’t know if that extends to the protection of civilians as in warning of missiles/drones coming towards Ukrainian cities.
What are odds of USI sharing Ukraine-specific intel with Moscow? If Zelenskiy doesn’t ingratiate himself with Trump in the next few days, I’d say the odds are 50/50, especially given the Russian friendly personalities involved.
TTG,
“Russian friendly personalities” is a rather vague generalization of the type that has been used for almost a decade now. Do you have a specific source or just another conjecture worthy of Sundance who scatters stuff around to generate clicks.
Fred,
Trumps admiration of Putin and Putin’s power is legendary. Notice how he put Putin in the same persecuted group as himself during the last Oval Office blow up? Gabbard has never had a critical word for Russia. Vance may be more anti-Ukraine than pro-Russia, but that may make him even more prone to share Ukrainian related intel with the Kremlin.
@TTG: “warning of missiles/drones coming towards Ukrainian cities.”
Yes, US has been warning Ukraine of Russian ballistic missile launches. Ukro authorities could then sound air raid sirens early to get people into shelters. But if the Tulsi cuts off info to Ukraine from DSP &/or SBIRS satellites, the civilian casualties will increase drastically. That ability is something Ukraine cannot presently duplicate. Yes they’ll have radar warning but there is a lag, it will be much slower.
maybe he’s getting set to share Ukraine intel w/ his besties in Moscow. I mean fresh material… not the boxes returned to the mar-a-lardo bathroom.
I wonder how much our “allies” are sharing intelligence with us….I don’t see any reason why they should share because it is all likely to end up in Putin’s in-box. The USA may be getting itself hung out to dry in terms of intelligence — what do you all think?
Laura,
They are great at sharing to push us in the direction they want us to go. Remember all the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights (UK op) and the White Helmets? Then there is all that USAID paid media (Thanks to DOGE we know who was getting paid). Then this is GCHQ’s own Christopher Steele and Australia’s Ambassador Downer.
But by all means let those memories fade before doing analysis
Agreed. But Trump could care less.
I was agreeing with Laura. Last time I agreed with Fred was a dozen years ago.
Laura –
“Spy agencies around the world may limit their information-sharing with the U.S. due to its reconciliatory approach to Russia – NBC News”
Oh, dear…this doesn’t bode well for our anti-terrorist operations, does it? I’m betting that USAID was also part of our “boots on the ground” intelligence operation and now we won’t have that either. Sigh…
Laura –
You’re right. And it’s not just the Five-Eyes anglosphere. Even Israel, Saudi Arabia and France are thinking now about revising intelligence sharing protocols with the US.
It’s not just Macron in France. In this speech by a French Senator whose party is in an anti-Macron opposition party, Claude Malhuret, he says Trump’s “lifeline to Putin is the greatest strategic mistake ever made during a war.” Another point he made: “Washington has become the court of Nero: an incendiary emperor, submissive courtiers, and a buffoon on ketamine tasked with purging the civil service.”
It’s worth a listen – only eight and a half minutes. English subtitles.
https://x.com/olddog100ua/status/1897409072233886174
This may be of interest:
“The U.S. Is Trying To Blind Ukraine—By Kicking It Out Of Orbit. It Won’t Work.
European countries and private firms can preserve Ukraine’s access to space intelligence.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/05/the-us-is-trying-to-blind-ukraine-by-kicking-it-out-of-orbit-it-wont-work/
thanks for that link Keith
“What’s happening with Trump cutting off intel support to Ukraine?”
Sundance goes into that in some detail here:
“President Trump Has Exposed the U.S Side of the Proxy War
by Disabling Ukraine Access to U.S. Missile and Drone Targeting Systems”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/03/06/president-trump-has-exposed-the-u-s-side-of-the-proxy-war-by-disabling-ukraine-access-to-u-s-missile-and-drone-targeting-systems/#more-269837
TTG has discussed these systems in the past.
I am not sure how compatible his view is with Sundance’s.
Keith H –
“Defense Minister Rustem Umerov told reporters that Ukraine has not yet received information on how access to intelligence data will be limited. According to him, now work is underway on alternatives.”
https://suspilne.media/amp/964299-umerov-pro-obmin-rozviddanimi-pracuemo-nad-alternativami/
Germany and France are potential alternatives for the terrain mapping targeting systems you mentioned. The German-Swedish Taurus cruise missile uses image based navigation – terrain referenced navigation for targeting. The French SCALP cruise missile also uses a terrain profile matching navigation guidance system.
A cessation on PHOTINT for Ukraine?
“NGA suspends Ukraine’s access to commercial satellite imagery
However, several industry sources said that their companies have not been blocked by NRO from taking pictures over Ukraine.”
https://breakingdefense.com/2025/03/nga-suspends-ukraines-access-to-commercial-satellite-imagery/
“The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) has cut off Ukraine’s access to commercial satellite imagery collected by the US government,
in the wake of President Donald Trump’s decision to “pause” the flow of US intelligence and military aid to Kyiv.
“In accordance with the Administration’s directive on support to Ukraine,
NGA has temporarily suspended access to GEGD, which is the agency’s primary portal for accessing commercial imagery purchased by the U.S. government,”
an agency spokesperson told Breaking Defense today.”
Keith Harbaugh –
Finland’s ICEYES satellite constellation is available. And Ukraine has a contract with them for exclusive use for two of those birds, plus access to downlinks from others. The sensor on board is SAR, Synthetic Aperture Radar. The pros are that it is better than optical PHOTINT because it sees through clouds, fog, smoke, vegetation and even soil plus it can see at night. The cons are mainly that it cannot see shadows and color info plus the images need experts to interpret them.
It is high resolution. Not good enough to read your face or a license plate from space but I never believed that NRO fairy-tale anyway. You can monitor very large areas, and if you need zoom in to a 25 cm (ten inch) resolution.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/people-s-satellite-surpasses-its-warranty-period/
https://www.iceye.com/satellites/design
Ukraine is still using it. They just hit a major Russian oil refinery near Leningrad last night.
Leith – no go. The Russians aren’t budging. Even Lavrov, the consummate diplomat who usually wraps his meaning up in dip-speak, is being blunt:-
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement and answers to media questions at a joint news conference following talks with Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Trade of the Republic of Zimbabwe Amon Murwira, Moscow, March 6, 2025
https://mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/2001746/
Brief mention of ISR support in the text. As for the possibility of Finnish or other European ISR assistance, that’s a dead end. As with the earlier American assistance generally, all it’ll do at most is prolong the war and get more Ukrainians (and Russians) killed. And our people too, those we still have over there.
“We see no room for compromise” says Lavrov. Knowing full well that if the Russians backed off after a hundred thousand Russian dead Putin would be out on his ear. The neocons and the Europeans had their chance of a give or take compromise in Istanbul and muffed it. I don’t believe the Russians’ll give them another.
That’s how I read Lavrov’s statement and it’s consistent with what the Russians have been saying since Putin’s Foreign Ministry speech last year. What do the American Democrats want? More Kursks? More Krynkys? More half-witted summer offensives? Those Dems do like to see rivers of blood. Provided it’s not their own.
Three things American Democrats love:
Ukraine, transgenderism, and DEI.
Keith Harbaugh,
Where the hell do you hang out where you see all this transgenderism? Are you surrounded by a gaggle of Roberta Muldoons? Seems to be a pretty fringe element of our society and a lot of other societies that Trumpists and a lot of other right wingers are obsessed with.
Keith Harbaugh –
Wrong. The far left Dems still see Moscow as all-knowing and all-powerful. And pls tell us if your point two is correct then why did Trump appoint an LGBTQ+ as his Secretary of the Treasury; why does he accept big bucks from JD Prance’s LGBTQ+ mentor Peter Thiel; why has he appointed LGBTQ+ Richard Grenell to important administration positions. That sounds like a whole lot of high-octane DEI. But maybe you think it’s OK as long as they are Republican LGBTQers.
leith, you raise some good points.
Yes, Trump has appointed some homosexuals to positions of power, and the GOP has gratefully accepted support from some homosexuals.
But in terms of acceptance of, and support for, transgenderism,
I think there is no comparison between the parties.
See, e.g.,
“Gavin Newsom Jump-Started a Conversation Democrats Need to Have
Since losing in November, the party has sidestepped a reckoning on transgender rights.”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/03/08/democrats-transgender-rights-gavin-newsom-column-00219665
Or consider the former Assistant Secretary for Health of the United States Department of Health and Human Services,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Levine
Keith Harbaugh,
Transgenderism in sports is something that I think should be addressed in the same way the IOC addressed the monstrous GDR women athletes of the 60s and 70s. There needs to be hormone tests at a minimum. Both testosterone and estrogen should be within prescribed limits.
“Where the hell do you hang out where you see all this transgenderism?”
Support for transgenderism is all too prevalent.
For example, just watch this video:
https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/community/arlington-community-rallies-support-lgbtqia-students-amid-uncertainty/65-56f6e1fe-4f99-40d4-9c23-d191cf6ee16c
From the mouths of youngsters to the Arlington County Board to the Arlington public school system to the Democratic establishment,
Arlington at least seems to be in the iron grip of transgender advocates.
Keith Harbaugh,
That young boy saying he had several trans friends threw me. What does being trans at that age mean and why would that kid be aware of such things?
The democrats acted like juvenile delinquents. They are so completely finished – and so completely stupid to not realize it.
a classic maga bs pep rally / tent revival… in the most pathetic way, even by boring SOTU standards. I expected a Call to Come Forth to be Burned Again at some point. guess offerings were made out of camera shot. highlight (for me) was Emperor Musk jumping up 27 times in recognition of exemplary duty in his own interests. I did appreciate Pres Nasty’s closing act – reading the longest single sentence since James Joyce’s Ulysses… & quickly too – Adderall Patch has come a long way! Dems shoulda placed Ukrainian flags on their seats, then split to watch from a bar – a shot every time Biden got blamed.
If America is going to hell (or Grand Alliance w/ the Great Dictatorships of the Era), it will be because of those who have dedicated themselves to believing in that… not because it is actually going to hell. though disgusted, I am not in the least surprised by Nasty’s cruelty toward those in the Civil Service. wiping out as many as possible across all agencies, w/o warning, no specific cause or ID of any personally engaged in WF&A, no program of transition support (15 minutes notice to clear out? nice), no thanks at all… cruel revenge theater. what an asshole, surrounded by assholes, for assholes.
I was surprised by the amount of time he lingered on Social Security and the clarity with which he expressed his intentions.
Of course we all know that Trump lies with breathtaking ease but I think last night he reached a new level of mendacity, all the more effective because he’s better with the teleprompter now and gave what was for him a disciplined performance. Just an astonishing tissue of exaggerations, inventions, misrepresentations, and good old-fashioned whoppers.
“Then, as he was leaving, he was overheard telling the Chief Justice that he appreciated what he had done for him.”
Lars,
I’ll bet Trump enjoyed that. Roberts could not get out of there fast enough, I imagine.
Few noticed, but Elissa Slotkin delivered a solid rebuttal, the best from either party in a long time. But no mention of the battery of falsehoods to which viewers had just been subjected.
Stephanie –
The Chief Justice sat there smiling; all the while knowing that he had voted to reject Trump’s push to freeze foreign aid via USAID.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-orders-trump-administration-unfreeze-foreign-assistance/story?id=119473127
Even Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who he put n the SC five years ago voted against him. She is now the target of rage by his faithful and being called a DEI hire. She needs to watch her back.
https://www.newsweek.com/amy-coney-barrett-maga-fury-trump-supreme-court-ruling-2040203
Leith,
What is jurisdiction and how many actual plaintiffs are in the case before Judge Ali? What is the federal court of claims? Think those 2 justices know?
leith —
Roberts remembers from time to time that the Court has his name on it. That’s my guess, anyway.
There’s been some unhappiness with Barrett for awhile, this was just the cherry on top. On a number of cases recently she has not demonstrated total fealty to the program. With everything else that’s going on SC decisions have not been getting a lot of attention, but in San Francisco v. EPA, decided last week, the Court voted 5-4 in support of the proposition that there is an acceptable degree of sludge that cities can empty into the nation’s waterways. In so doing Barrett and the three others took forty whacks to Alito’s legal reasoning, which must have left Sammy boiling.
Stephanie,
Which statements are proven lies?
Slotkin? She thinks the American Dream is to work in an automobile assembly plant.
Fred, Here is just one of MANY Trump lies:
TRUMP: “Among my very highest priorities is to rescue our economy and get dramatic and immediate relief to working families. As you know, we inherited from the last administration an economic catastrophe and an inflation nightmare.”
THE FACTS: Inflation peaked at 9.1% in 2022 under President Joe Biden, but Trump did not inherit a disastrous economy by any measure. The unemployment rate ticked down to a low 4% in January, the month he took office, while the economy expanded a healthy 2.8% in 2024. Inflation-adjusted incomes have grown steadily since mid-2023. And inflation, while showing signs of stickiness in recent months and still elevated at 3% in January, is down from its 2022 peak.
Oh, and another one:
TRUMP: “We ended the last administration’s insane electric vehicle mandate, saving our auto workers and companies from economic destruction.”
THE FACTS: There was no federal mandate to force the purchase of EVs, as Trump has falsely claimed many times before.
Biden had set up a non-binding goal that EVs make up half of new cars sold by 2030. Trump issued an executive order on his first day in office revoking that goal.
Also, he was still pushing the myth that “150 yr olds”still getting Soc Sec checks! lol
And on and on and on……
Al,
you mean Laken Riley really is dead and the democrats would not stand in front of her in parents in honor of a national wildlife refuge being named in her memory? That they wouldn’t stand to honor a young black cancer survivor? Thanks for pointing that out.
” Fact check: Biden again falsely claims inflation was 9% when he became president…”
Is that the story – on CNN – that you are referring too? Biden lied?
“As part of the Advanced Clean Cars II regulations, all new passenger cars, trucks, and SUVs sold in California will be zero-emission vehicles by 2035…”
Only California. Biden only had “non binding” goals. Right. not binding, like keeping your doctor and health care plan. So glad you pointed that out. I won’t ask how much did Elon lose with the ev subsidy getting abolished? Billions?
“he was still pushing the myth that “150 yr olds”still getting Soc Sec checks! lol”
I agree, those receiving the $$$$ are called crooks. They need to be in jail. No laughing matter.
When you say that California automotive emissions regulations will only effect California, that is incorrect on a couple of levels. Firstly, there is this: https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/california-standards . Secondly, because CA is such a huge automotive market and the “compact” states represent a big piece of the rest of it, CA standards tend to be adopted by the industry because it is a pain in the ass to make several configurations of that stuff. While non-compact states may not require zero emissions vehicles, manufacturers are going to move in that direction, the way they have done since the birth of C.A.R.B. .
Fred, did you read the Trump SOU lies, the FEW I posted? Musta as your reaction is full blown. lol
Fred,
Trump’s lips were moving during the SOTU, which is a pretty good tipoff that an untruth in one degree or another is coming. Seriously, however, the fact checkers have been diligently at work online.
https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-misinformation-trump-ukraine-3bea1df50167ac0a91f8c419b58c4b97
Being able to create a good life for you and your family by working in places like automobile plants was and is absolutely part of the old American Dream. You might not get rich but you could still enjoy your small slice of the pie.
Stephanie,
“Trump’s lips were moving…”
Your reasoned judgement is showing.
“the old American Dream. You might not get rich”
“Rivet Head” was discussed on the old SST and plenty of people made themselves wealthy in automotive. There is a big big economy outside of that sector. Perhaps you should change the channel, or code, as you really need to work on the AI.
“U.S. President Donald Trump said he wanted to cut the federal funding of colleges that allow what he called “illegal protests” in a social media post that civil rights groups called an attack on the freedoms of speech and assembly.”
“All federal funding will STOP for any College, School or University that allows illegal protests,” Trump wrote on social media. “Agitators will be imprisoned/or permanently sent back to the country from which they came. American students will be permanently expelled or, depending on the crime, arrested. NO MASKS!”
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-federal-funding-will-stop-colleges-schools-allowing-illegal-protests-2025-03-04/
I guess we are a full-blown banana replublic run by a dictator now. No freedom of speech and assembly?
TonyL,
Where are the concentration camps? Project 2025, don’t you remember?
Fred,
Deflection is a cheap debate tactic. I’m only interested in hearing how you justify Trump’s suppression of freedom of speech and assembly.
TonyL,
You are confusing Trump with the Euros.
Trump said “illegal” protests, like you don’t get to block interstates, hinder business or impeded university operations. Nor do you get to vandalize, commit arson, murder, etc to make your political point.
Fred often responds with “deflection” instead of to the topic raised.
al
” No freedom of speech and assembly?”
Reading comprehension
TTG – I’m quite disturbed by the level of the discussion about UK defence, and by extension defence in the West generally. All the talk’s about war machines like tanks or missiles. It looks as if we’re going to spend more on them and get ourselves a “proper army” again. The Germans are talking the same way, and other European countries. There’s some pressure in the States too to increase that type of defence spending – more 155mm shells, more artillery, better kit.
All that prompted by the deficiencies in Western armies revealed by the Ukrainian war, deficiencies ranging from not enough kit and not good enough kit to doctrinal errors at the top level that became obvious when the Russians ran rings around us on strategy.
So now we’re looking to remedy all that. Pointless, and no better illustration of the old saw that the generals and politicians always fight the last war when preparing for the next. It’s even worse than that. The Ukrainian war was so much a one-off that it’s a waste of time taking it as giving us any sort of lead on what a “proper army” for 21st century warfare would look like.
It was so restricted a war that I’d guess the Americans didn’t use more than a fraction of the materiel they had. Where was their air, their missiles, that formidable submarine fleet? Little of it could be used, and not much of their manpower, for fear of escalation. All we really saw used was their logistics and their ISR. But having super-efficient logistics is meaningless if there’s not that much to be shifted around, and though American ISR made a seriously significant contribution it was nowhere near significant enough.
In those circumstances it didn’t really matter that the Europeans had, for all practical purposes, no army. If they’d had one they’d have been as unable to make full use of it as the Americans were of theirs.
So now, taking that one-off Ukrainian war as a template, we’re going to get ourselves a “proper army”. According to UvdL and the rest of the fantasists. Apart from the fact that we no longer have the money or the industrial base, what use would a “proper army” be?
Real conventional war in Europe would not look anything like that severely limited war in Ukraine. Civilian infrastructure would need only a few precision missiles to make it inoperable. Not much use having divisions of shiny new tanks if Berlin or London were starving. Or, as “Tidewater” pointed out here only recently, if the ports could no longer be used. Or if the supply dumps and bases were destroyed.
“We haven’t even started yet” said Putin not that long back and if both sides really started, we’d not be sitting comfortably at home casting an eye over reports from the front from time to time. We’d be too busy running around trying to survive.
Even that scenario ignores nuclear. Some time during the escalation one side or the other would start to lose big. Tactical nuclear would get used and then strategic. That’s why Biden and now Trump would not countenance escalation.
This has been obvious for years. A real defence policy, one that would truly ensure our security, should not be based on the fact that we lost that one-off war in Ukraine. It should be based on a more realistic assessment of the dangers really facing us.
These are real enough. The only way we could have won that war with Russia was if the sanctions war had come off. What if that weapon were used against us? We’d collapse in short order.
The hope was that we’d destabilise the RF to the extent that it collapsed. Do we think we ourselves are invulnerable to destabilisation? All the major European countries are literally sitting on a powder keg when it comes to large scale internal civil disorder.
Must be twenty years ago I was going for a run and passed a mains water pumping station. Sitting in the middle of a field humming away to itself. I stopped and looked at it. Any fool could wreck that, I thought. Chances of getting caught low. Occasionally sheep rustlers visit us and the police never catch them.
Years later I had a conversation with a Russian on the Colonel’s site. He was explaining how the Jihadis degraded Syrian civilian infrastructure. A quick bit of vandalism and then the authorities send out a repair crew. Repeat several times. Eventually the repair crews stop coming. Eventually the machinery of running a viable community breaks down. I thought of that pumping station, and of all the other infrastructure facilities dotted around, as that Russian explained how it was done in Syria. Easier in the cities, of course.
Naval War College Review. “Feral Cities”. Richard J. Norton
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=2342&context=nwc-review
That link from an interesting talk from a man who studies the process of destabilisation. So even the academics are now worrying about such things, seems.
The Coming British Civil War – David Betz | Maiden Mother Matriarch Episode
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gid48FgiHho&t=13s&ab_channel=MaidenMotherMatriarchwithLouisePerry
If we had any sense those are the things we’d be thinking about when it comes to defence, not buying more tanks for a war that’s never going to be fought again.
EO,
What we are learning from the Russo-Ukraine War is that peer to peer combat is far different than what both the West and Russia thought it would be. Drones have drastically changed the dynamics of the battlefield along with the heavy use of EW. Only the Ukrainians and the Russians have fully grasped this change. For us to grasp this change fully will require changes in doctrine, tactics, organization along with changes in our defense industries.
This will require our maneuver forces to relearn the need to be constantly on guard against air threats, disperse even in rear areas and dig in whenever we’re not moving. These aren’t new concepts. It’s how I was brought up as a junior light infantry officer. Along with these changes along the front lines, the air defense of the entire country has to be taken more seriously. Even Russia has now realized her nationwide air defenses are inadequate. Along with a seriously beefed up air defense, nations must make their infrastructure more resilient and redundant to deal with the bigger threat from missiles and drones.
Before this war, the Baltics and Ukraine were moving towards a strategy of total national defense in which the entire nation mobilized to defend in depth against an attacking foe. The goal is to allow an effective resistance to continue in the face of an invasion and to make that invasion too costly both initially and over the long term. The heavy use of man portable antitank and anti-air weapons by Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces in the beginning of the war was an example of this. Add the heavy use of drones by such territorial defense forces and you have a good defense against the typical armored thrusts that the West feared from Russia.
What has not been tested by this war is the effectiveness of Western airpower. Our militaries have relied on attaining air superiority and delivering most of our firepower from the air. No one has been able to achieve air superiority in this war. We don’t know if it can be done in a future peer to peer war.
TTG – it does seem that the Russians have a technological lead that’d be difficult to make up. Andrei Martyanov is quite positive on this point and gives many examples to demonstrate it.
On the bread and butter stuff the Russians have, amazingly, outproduced the entire West and it doesn’t look as if we’ll make up that gap in the near future either.
There is no possibility of the West overcoming these deficiencies on a time scale that’ll make any difference to the war in Ukraine. That’s setting aside the fact that when it comes to tackling a war machine such as the Russians have our General Staffs are all at sea. They’re used to a quite different sort of activity.
This is a war between the West and Russia with the Kiev forces doing the grunt work for us. It’s a war in a theatre in which we cannot deploy our full strength and if we could that full strength would be inadequate. I believe Trump, and many Americans, recognise that reality and are looking for some way to end it.
If Trump fails, and barring military or administrative collapse in Ukraine, the war will grind on to its inevitable conclusion with further loss of life and territory for the Ukrainians and no victory, or even advantage, for us.
As for the possibility of the Russians invading us – to what purpose? The eastern Europeans, at least, have fight in them and as you say would render any Russian occupation difficult. The Russians would have to deploy large numbers of occupying troops. That’d be costly, and expensive in casualties in the long term. The reward?
There wouldn’t be one. The Russians would have to fuel and feed entire territories for no return. We’ve all got too used to regarding Europe as a great prize, TTG. More folie de grandeur. Occupying and maintaining it would be a great nuisance and there is no conceivable reason for the Russians wanting to take that burden on.
Except, of course, to prevent the Europeans attacking them! But if they need to do that they don’t have to move great armies around. Merely cut Europe’s supplies.
EO,
Martyanov, the bloviating ass who should move back to his superior motherland. He still can’t admit that Russia f’ed up the SMO and continues to do so. If Russia were half way competent, they would have wiped out Ukrainian forces completely by now; as well as terminated Zelensky. If they can do it, now is the time, so they can negotiate from a position of strength. But no. Russia is a small, dimwitted, lame bear. They will cave to US pressure and be forced to accept a meager gain relative to all of their effort and cost.
Can’t agree on any of that, Eric! But now the Washington psychos have given way to Trump and his merry men (praise be!) we have to take a serious look at how Trump is going to extricate his country from what Biden and the Europoodles plunged their respective countries into. The Ukrainian tragedy.
Everyone including the ambulatory cadaver is saying they want “peace”. Don’t be fooled. What Zelensky or the Europoodles mean by “peace” is not what Trump means and that again is not what the Russians mean.
So what do they all mean by “peace”? Your President first. For Trump, the Ukrainian fiasco is just one of the fiascos he inherited from Biden. He wants it out of the way. He doesn’t much care how. So “peace” for Trump is anything that gets the killing stopped and soon. Soon is important for internal political reasons as well as humanitarian.
He knows the score on Ukraine. A sleazy police state, corrupt as hell, still run by the Banderite freaks we put in power in 2014. They despise their fellow Ukrainians who aren’t Banderites, which is most of them, so have no problem with getting them killed in heaps.
To get a cessation of the fighting Trump has to get past those Banderites. His chances of doing so are low but not zero and his efforts in that respect praiseworthy.
What does Zelensky mean by “peace”? Zelensky, believe it or not, has been very badly treated. His Western backers promised him the earth if he kept the fighting going and he was mug enough to believe them. It’s been downhill for him since before Vilnius and it’s still difficult for him to accept he’s been conned.
“Peace” for him is a sort of tooth fairy fantasy. He wants the Americans to come in in force to back him up. That the Americans doing that for real would lead to WWIII has either escaped his attention or doesn’t bother him. Difficult to think straight when you’re doing your very own re-run of the last days in the bunker.
Poor devil, but don’t feel for him too much. Had he not gone back on his election promise to the Ukrainian people the old Ukraine would still be intact and all this grief would have been avoided. It would have been far better, by the way, had the old Ukraine remained intact but that’s history now.
Don’t spend too much time working out what the Europeans mean by “peace”. The Europoodles are all over the place. For them, “peace” is anything from the dismemberment of the RF to a graceful transition to Cold War II. But all of them, like Zelensky, are still hoping against hope for the tooth fairy.
Put “Ursula” in the search box here and you’ll see a brief summary of the current Europoodle reactions. I warn you, it’s not pretty.
https://robcampbell.substack.com/p/ukraine-weekly-update-292
That leaves the Russians. What do they mean by “peace”?
One hell of a lot. Take outside Ukraine first. Outside Ukraine they want the lifting of all sanctions. Can’t think why because those sanctions have been a gift to them but I suppose they do interfere with their trade with the Brics countries and that’s a nuisance. They want the New European Security Architecture they’re always on about. They want to see the colour of Rubio’s money when he talks of a tripolar world instead of a unipolar.
Inside Ukraine what the Russians mean by “peace” looks on the face of it very different from the old Minsk I and II days. But the aims aren’t.
The want the Banderites gone. They want the ROC left unmolested. They don’t want the West using remnant Ukraine for sending “look no hands” shells, missiles and drones over or running terrorist attacks into Russia. They want to keep the territory they took under their protection in 2022 and if the inhabitants vote for it they’ll take more;, though they’re still a little vague on precisely how much more.
That’s what the Russians mean by “peace”, Eric. I doubt they’ll accept much less. They have the military and economic clout to get it however much the Europoodles jump up and down. But I do believe that if he can get past the Banderites your President can still play a real role in arriving at that peace. He can cut the death toll and the misery significantly by getting that peace arrived at quickly.
EO,
“All that prompted by the deficiencies in Western armies revealed by…”
Trump in his first term. He was laughed at. As to your rest, your govornment if finally realizing they can’t defend their island? Not that they tried. Don’t bemoan Syria’s infrastructure destruction, look at what your own people failed to do in Rotherham.
“look at what your own people failed to do in Rotherham.”
Touché
See also
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj50ljn44j8o.amp
In memory of
Bebe King, six, Elsie Dot Stancombe, seven, and nine-year-old Alice Dasilva Aguiar.
Killed by pure savagery.
The clear and direct result of the rot in Western leadership.
https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2025/03/07/is-the-uk-heading-for-civil-war-professor-predicts-mass-unrest-within-five-years-due-to-open-borders-social-fracture-eroding-legitimacy/
“The professor argues that successive governments have exacerbated tensions by failing to address critical issues,
such as the grooming gang scandals that disproportionately affected working-class communities
and the unchecked influx of migrants that has transformed the nation’s demographic landscape.”
America has experienced massive immigration but not, as far as I know, grooming gangs.
More from that article:
The “analysis highlights the dangers of what he terms “asymmetric multiculturalism,”
a phenomenon in which ethnic pride and group solidarity are celebrated for all groups except the white majority.
For whites, such expressions are often labeled as supremacist or racist …”
Keith,
And a material portion of the whites go along with it because they are either shallow dullards or mentally ill and practicing the suicidal misplaced empathy for the, allegedly, oppressed masses of the world that is preached by elitist fools from Karl Marx to the Pope to the CIA to the idle rich of the US and Europe (none of whom were ever accountable nor ever put in a honest day’s work or started a successful business in their entire lives).
There’s a fair bit more than that, Fred. Were I to list the various causes of popular discontent here in England I’d be here all evening. Professor Betz in that video linked to runs through a few of them. Not many happy campers in the UK right now.
But Starmer, of all people, has seen his ratings rise after his firm and masterful handling of the crisis:-
“According to this latest survey, the number of Britons with a favourable view of the prime minister has increased in the last two-and-a-half weeks from 26 percent in mid-February to 31 percent… “
A corresponding increase in TDS:-
“Looking further afield after the frenetic transatlantic activity, Donald Trump has not fared well. Eight in ten Britons (80 percent), says YouGov, now have an unfavourable view of him, up from 73 percent two weeks ago, while the number of Britons with a positive view of the US president has correspondingly fallen seven points to 15 percent.
“Significantly, Trump’s favourability has taken such a knock that he is now unpopular overall among Reform UK voters. The proportion with a negative view of the president has risen fully 25 points to 53 percent since mid-February, while the number with a favourable view has fallen from a commanding 66 percent to just 45 percent now.”
As for Zelensky,
“Ukrainian president Zelensky, though, has improved his ratings, with the proportion of Britons with a favourable view of him increasing from 64 to 71 percent.”
https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/ukraine-casting-a-long-shadow/
These trends mirrored in Europe. More accurately in Lemming-land, as the recent German elections show. Alas, regardless of their doom, the little victims play! No sense have they of ills to come, nor care beyond today. Could have sworn someone else said that as well. Probably Lavrov.
So the White Tiger in fine fettle and we’re ready to tear the Russians limb from limb. If only we can get Uncle Sam to provide the teeth. Do you think he will?
The US owes Ukraine a lot. Without learning their new tactics, the US would really fight yesterday’s war for real. These lessons are invaluable and should be recognized as such. The Ukrainians also seem to have developed very good intelligence methods that could be copied. I am sure Russia has made some changes, but not nearly on the same level and that has to do with cultural matters. Their kleptocracy is not changing anytime soon.
Lars,
No, we don’t owe them a damn thing – except a demand for an apology for interfering in our elections, bribing our government officials, and aiding the theft of both USAID and military aid funds and equipment. And our $$$$$$$ back
I was state civil service for 25 years. When Chis Christie was first trying to make a national name for himself, I heard one of my coworkers praising him and saying they would vote for him. This was right after he had cut pension benefits not only for future hires, but for people who were already collecting pensions, and pledging to drastically cut the NJ state workforce.
When I pointed out that his whole schtick was running against the state workforce, “you know, people like you”, I was told that she did not care, she loved his “tell it like it is” vibe.
As I watch Trump voters lose their federal jobs, I cannot help remembering this, and how I called my future boss a “fucking dimwit” when she said that.
rick (small r),
What a convenient annectdote. What was the % of federal workforce that actually voted for Trump, as opposed to the overwhelming majority who gave $ to his opponents? What % of those fired were probationary and subject to termination without cause? What %, like one of my siblings, were retirement eligible and should have retired years ago?
Trump is backing down on using Musk. There has been a lot of blow back from even Republicans. He is also waving the white flag on tariffs. None of this is surprising, at least not to me. The problem is that he leaves a vacuum and he is trying to fill it with himself. He is also making it clear that he can’t be relied upon and that he is erratic. That will negatively impact the business community, as is evident in the stock market. Then we have his Secretary of Commerce suggesting that they now should cook the books to hide reality. Then we have the foreign affairs problems created. Some were afraid that he would channel Neville and he blew right through that and went full Vidkun. That will also be rather costly. Of course, he also thinks that the Pottery Barn rules don’t apply to him. He will be wrong about that too.
You still stuck in the 1930s and 40s?
Thanks for making your cramped POV perfectly clear.
It’s always the 1930s!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vidkun_Quisling
“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes”
– Mark Twain
“SJWs Always Lie” and “SJWs Always Double Down ”
Vox Day
Evil Lord of Evil or Gamergater or both
Now you hate Mark Twain? WTF Fred?
Lars,
We didn’t invade Ukraine. If they are really hard up though (can’t be true as we’ve been repeatedly told here how Russia is already defeated) he can recall the Vindman brothers to active duty and ship them over. he should send Victoria Nuland with some cookies too.
On a related note, walls are closing in……
After AQ took over in Syria we are now reaching the pogrom stage in Syria.
Jihadis on a rampage in a Alawite neighborhood in Latakia
https://x.com/joshua_landis/status/1897730106090549494
Abu Amsha, the Turkish affiliated SNA commander, marshals his troops towards the Syrian coast to “finish off the remains of the past regime in their entirety,” he says.
https://x.com/joshua_landis/status/1897743782075875536
Major battle in Jableh, south of Latakia, today between Alawites and regime forces.
https://x.com/joshua_landis/status/1897720455449973247
Jihadis having fun killing Alawites. Just so there is no doubt what the new regime in Damascus is all about.
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/87453
Poul,
First they came for the Alawites and next they will come for the Christians?
James,
Yes, they will come for the Christians too, of course. Only a delusional deep state stooge would think otherwise.
Look on the bright side, it’s just Armenians, Chaldeans, assorted Syrians and other MENA types who will die; not sacred most awesome freedom loving and deserving Ukrainians. So move along. Nothing to see. Most certainly don’t look at Turkey. Stick with the program. Repeat the official deep state mantra – “Some invasions of sovereign nations are more equal than others. Only the invasion of Ukraine is worth fighting”.
Poul,
No no no. We were told, on these very hallowed pages, to wait and see. Give it a chance. The jihadis said they had changed. So we must give them the benefit of the doubt and see what happens. Maybe they are kinder gentler takfiris, like they said. Be a good citizen and do and think what the deep state tells you to.
Besides Al Assad had to go because he was friendly to RUSSIA!!!!! My God, the monster. And he did bad things to his OWN PEOPLE!!!!! (who happened to be jihadis and jihadi aligned “color revolution” rebels, but never mind – enemy of a friend of RUSSIA!!!!!! is our friend).
US government foreign policy is so stupid and evil sometimes I’m almost ashamed to be an American. Thankfully, the Trump admin will turn it around, but, of course, he will be opposed by the same evil morons that wanted jihadis to take out Assad and brutally begin to cleanse Christians.
And they call Trump the psychopath.
Western MSM hidden what is happening with their pro-Assad nonsense. Assad ran for his life and will never return. This is Alewites trying to survive the new Jihadi regime. And I have not doubt it will be forced convertion to Sunni Islam, Death or fleeing the country.
https://old.bitchute.com/video/10SJUfFOHmHN/
Poul,
Of course. That is the history of islam and the people who’s land they conquer. It will happen in Europe some day too, maybe a generation or two away.
Poul,
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham was welcomed into control by the outgoing administration and their intellectual allies abroad.
E.O.,
Richard Norton’s essay ‘Feral Cities’, published in 2003, reminds me a lot of that remarkable book published in 2006 by the late, great Mike Davis, “Planet of Slums.” You can check some of Davis’s predictions as to recent slum population growth in the cities–some of them defined as megacities (20 million plus)– that he writes about. One-third of the global urban population now lives as squatters in sprawling “slum peripheries” where there is no sewage or even filthy tap water. That could be a billion, couldn’t it? What is now happening is simply “a late capitalist triage” of “the last buildout of humanity.”
h
Some of these places might have a better chance if we stopped screwing them up in pursuit of of geo-political objectives. Syria, for example, would be in better case had we not flooded it with our Jihadis and with armaments over the past decade or so. Nor do we have clean hands in Nigeria.
But you can’t say that in the West because none believe we are doing it. Big subject. Turning to the subject discussed here, we’re watching in real time the collapse of an enterprise similar to the one we attempted in Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwRvsLpmeaQ&ab_channel=MilitarySummary
A very similar enterprise indeed, though the Kursk debacle itself could happen in any war. The parallels between our efforts in Syria and our efforts in Ukraine have been clear since before the start of the SMO, right down to the parallel between the way the Russians coped with the use by the Azov of human shield warfare in Mariupol and the way the Russians coped with the Jihadi use of the same tactics in East Aleppo. Not surprising. On Ukrainian TV you’d sometimes come across Black Sun enthusiasts explaining they’d learned a lot from ISIS.
Try saying such things in the UK and you’d be met with blank incomprehension at best or angry denial at worst! Unless you were talking to some MI6 character. He’d look at you and think to himself ” The general public isn’t supposed to know about all that!” True, but then most of the general public never read the Colonel’s work.
Try saying such things in Germany and you’d run a good chance of being prosecuted. I find it an article of faith in Lemming-land that there are no neo-Nazis in Ukraine. One of those subjects, like North Stream, it’s not done to mention.
Within the confines of that enforced omerta the magnificent General Kujat does his best to explain why the current enterprise in Ukraine has been a dead loss from the start. Also Krone-Schmalz, a genuine Russia expert with a lot of useful things to say, though past events in the Donbass don’t seem to be within her field of expertise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nKaWcukjno&ab_channel=DIEWELTWOCHE
Do they get much traction within Germany? Kujat gets airtime sometimes in the mainstream media. But is he getting through to the lemmings?
TTG – late addendum, if that’s OK.
The “peace deal” Kiev has just agreed to isn’t a “peace deal” like the Russians have proposed. DW:-
“Ukraine has backed a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, while Washington agreed to resume intelligence sharing and military aid for Kyiv.”
https://www.dw.com/en/us-ukraine-come-to-agreements-after-talks-in-saudi-arabia/live-71883060
I thought at once of Appomattox, as I did in my final comment to Colonel Lang. I believe the argument of that final comment still holds true as we approach the end of the Ukrainian war. It was at Appomattox that all the arguments about who was in the right – arguments still raging in odd corners here and there – and the entire dispute about what should have been done and what was done or why the bloodbath that was the American Civil War occurred in the first place, gave way to bleak military reality. Wiki:-
“Union infantry and cavalry forces under General Philip Sheridan pursued and cut off the Confederates’ retreat at the central Virginia village of Appomattox Court House. Lee launched a last-ditch attack to break through the Union forces to his front, assuming the Union force consisted entirely of lightly armed cavalry. When he realized that the cavalry was now backed up by two corps of federal infantry, he had no choice but to surrender with his further avenue of retreat and escape now cut off.”
But in the fantasy land we in the West now inhabit there was no need for Lee to have surrendered. What he should have done instead was propose a provisional ceasefire. That would have given him time to regroup, resupply, and put himself in a better position for the next battle.
Would Grant have accepted that “peace deal”? Should he have?
……………………………..
The chances of the Russians accepting this peace deal look to be similarly low. They are in a commanding position, have momentum, and have large forces in reserve in addition to those already committed.
They have no reason for fear any additional forces the Europeans might put in the field. The Americans, even if they chose to dispense with Biden’s “no boots on the ground” decision, could not get their forces in place to make any useful contribution. American conventional military strength is in any case inadequate for a full scale conventional war with Russia, particularly in this theatre, and if that were attempted it would inevitably lead to nuclear war. Trump is no more likely to risk nuclear war than was Obama or Biden.
Militarily, the position is as hopeless as was Lee’s at Appomattox. More so – the disparity of forces is greater.
The other weapons we in the West have are economic. The Europeans have about shot their bolt on sanctions. There aren’t many more they can impose and if they attempted a full trade blockage they’d wreck their own economy rather than the Russian.
The Americans have already imposed the “sanctions from hell” and there’s not a deal of room to make those sanctions bite harder. It would be possible to attempt further restrictions on Russian trade with other countries but enforcing such secondary sanctions would not be easy. If it could be done it would damage the Russian economy but not to the extent that it would alter the course of the war: the belief that the Russians have to cannibalise washing machines for chips has long since been exploded. The Russians have been working for more than a decade to ensure that supply chains for military production are in house.
We hold no useful cards. Accepting a provisional ceasefire makes less sense for the Russians than it would have done for Grant at Appomattox.
………………………………….
It gets complicated after that. Watching the Europeans as they come to terms with the fact that there’s a new American administration is like lifting a stone and finding a heap of worms wriggling around. Not so easy, making out what they’re up to. Easier if we look at the European objectives before looking at how they, in conjunction with their allies in the American political scene, are wriggling around trying to get to them.
The imperatives of the European politicians are threefold.
– They need to avoid losing face after the forthcoming defeat of the Kiev forces. Trump can avoid losing face because it wasn’t his war in the first place. The European politicians can’t.
– They need to keep their electorates behind the war even after it’s lost. Briefly, war fever in the European electorates is all the European politicians have that might keep them in power.
– After the Ukrainian defeat they need to transition to Cold War II. They need to retain the American Security Guarantee as they do so.
Those three imperatives in mind, back to this bogus “peace deal” briefly outlined in that DW link given above.
In PR terms that bogus “peace deal” does make sense for the Europeans, and for the American war party . Brief attempt here at simplification. It’s something of a mouthful, having to say “The Europeans and the American war party” all the time. Simpler to call it Fantasy Land. Looking at the recent German elections, the recent UK opinion polls, and the contortions of the American war party, “Fantasy Land” is charitable.
If the Russians refuse this bogus “peace deal”, as they are likely to, Fantasy Land will say “The Russians have refused to make peace!” That puts the Russians where we want them. In the wrong. That this ignores military reality is irrelevant. In the fantasy that was Western politics overall before Trump happened along, military reality is not relevant and it’s only traitors and Putin trolls who think it is. Such as Keene or Breedlove or Hodges must be our guides to the military strategy of Fantasy Land.
This explains the efforts made by the Europeans – Starmer, Macron et al – to get Zelensky to agree to a deal before the Oval Office debacle. Also explains the meeting between Democrats and Zelensky before that Oval Office scene. Also explains why General Keene, a passionate neocon, was telephoning Yermak just after that scene encouraging him to apologise to President Trump and to accept the offered deal. Also explains Senator Graham’s statements. Fantasy Land needed Zelensky to say yes.
All these groups that wish to see the war continue – the Europeans and Trump’s American opponents – were working, before and after the Oval Office scene, to get Zelensky to accept American proposals for “peace” however impracticable those proposals were. The more impracticable the better, one might say – offering a bogus “peace deal” the Russians have to reject not only puts the Russians in the wrong in PR terms, it justifies continuing the war right into the Cold War II that all know is coming after the Ukrainian defeat.
This puts Trump in a difficult position because it is his own peace proposal the Russians will reject. Trump will now be under pressure to continue with the Biden policy: Biden supported the Ukrainians enough to keep them fighting though he was unable to support them enough to enable them to win.
Trump will now be in the same position as Biden was. Forced to continue the supply of arms and ISR support, which is what the Europeans and the American Democrats and neocons wish. A true peace is the last thing Fantasy Land wants. It spells disaster for them. And it’s only the proxies doing most of the dying anyway.
The likely Russian rejection of this bogus “peace deal” will have the further effect of retaining American security support for Europe even as the Europeans head into Cold War II. We in Europe don’t intend to let go of Uncle Sam’s hand if we can possibly keep hold of it!
I’m wondering whether Trump’s European and American opponents have in fact got Trump cornered, in that he will now be forced to continue with Biden’s failed policy in Ukraine.
If so, we in the West are in the position we’ve been in since 2022. Fantasy Land is going to win the PR war in the West hands down. We always do. It’s what we’re good at. While the Russians ignore the worms wriggling around – it’s not a pretty sight but it means little – and get on with achieving their objectives. As with Grant at Appomattox, what’s to stop them?
What about a “truly” Open Thread video instead of the continuing shitshow of world affairs?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJZ1Ez28C-A
Best explanation of the weirdness of Quantum Mechanics.
The world at large is NOT what it appears to be and this has probably many philosophical/ethical/religious consequences (soul, death, free will, etc..)
Great video, gld. I wasn’t aware of the “action principle”.
ooops jld, of course. 😉
Did anyone notice the mass murder of Christians in the Republic on Congo?
http://www.danielgreenfield.org/2025/03/pope-francis-ignores-church-massacre.html
No. Only sacred Ukrainians count. Russia is the bad guy in the world. He wants to conquer everything! Not like muslims who have never tried to conquer anything because religion of peace.
Only a toothless, racist, Archie Bunker, trailer dweller has the audacity to think that muslims and jihad are a bigger problem to Christians and western civ that PUTIN!!!!!!. Europe should let in a few million more of those guys and the US should keep its borders open to them too, you ugly bigot!
The Vatican condemned the massacre and called it a genocide.
Pope Francis is hospitalized, still.
Must have missed that on ABC/CBS/NBC/Fox/Etc. Or NYT/Guardian/ad nauseam.
Fred –
The AP covered it.
Over 50,000 Christians have been murdered in Nigeria. 70 beheaded in the Congo is approximately 1/7th of one percent of 50K. And when did you convert from worshiping Trump’s hocuspocus to Christianity?
leith,
At the same time you became out as a troll
Fred –
Fanboys of the Extortioner-in-Chief are the trolls here.
Leith,
War’s coming back to Europe and “extortioner” Zelensky won’t be stopping it, nor Ursula VDL, or the rest of the Eurotrash elites. Those would be the guys, along with the Sultan, who put HTS into power in Syria. Oh looking a pipeline deal magically appears. And butchery expands out of Idlib just like the Col. warned about.
Meanwhile Orange Man bad doing the predatory oligarch thing but shutting down USAID and Act Blue. OK the later is imploding as the ‘leadership’ leaves to spend more time with their families. And lawyers.
Fred –
Assad and Putin’s incompetency put HTS in power. Nobody else. The Sultan put his money on the SNA not HTS, and it’s the SNA jihadis that are murdering Alawites in Latakia.
Orange Man, AKA the Thief-in-Chief, is stealing from the US Treasury and putting those bucks in his own pocket.
Fred,
When will college students be protesting genocide in Syria? When will our own condemners of Israel condemn HTS? Thus proving that 1. they are not compete hypocrite zombie idiots 2. Their love of Hamas isn’t based on antisemitism, rather at least some kind of general principle other than social Marxism.
leith said
“Assad and Putin’s incompetency put HTS in power. Nobody else.”
I think we need to be honest.
The USA systematically worked to drive Assad from power, to undermine his government,
through sanctions and covert and overt actions.
Why?
Because Israel didn’t want a strong, potentially hostile, Syrian state on its border.
And why was, and is, the USA so subservient to Israel?
For an honest, accurate explanation, watch this 60 second short from John Mearsheimer:
https://youtu.be/V6ZSqfu10Vc
Keith,
The US really didn’t want the Russians to have that Port of Tartus for their navy. Also, there was the Syrian alignment with Iran. Israel’s interests are just one factor in the equation and I think not enough to have caused what happened all by itself.
Keith Harbaugh & Eric Newhill –
I should have added that one of the main reasons Syria collapsed was Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah and their attacks on both the Syrian military and Iranian assets in Syria.
My bad.
Putin also had some responsibility for Assad’s fall. He got so entangled in Ukraine that he stopped helping his main Allie in the Middle East. He’s trying to make up for it now – openly talking to HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, negotiating Tartus Port and Hmeimin AFB, sending Syria stolen Ukrainian grain.
Leith,
Hezbollah was not the backbone of the SAA. Putin certainly cut him loose. Rather than ask why you tout out “Putin did it”, which is the your one trick pony.
Leith,
Blaming Russia for what happened in Syria is like deflecting blame from the burglars to the home owner who was burglarized because the home owner didn’t install a good enough home security system.
By that same logic, why blame Russia for invading Ukraine? It’s NATO’s fault for not being proactively engaged in reinforcing Ukraine’s borders – and what’s done is done, just like in Syria.
Eric – we put the Jihadis in Syria in the first place and supplied them liberally with weapons. That was well reported at the time, the best summary being a BBC part funded video, since withdrawn, that showed some fourteen Western countries involved in sending Jihadis from all over the world across the Turkish border. I submitted a link to that video on the Colonel’s site so some of TTG’s readers might recollect it.
At the time there was plenty of other material around showing how the Jihadis were got into Syria and how they were supplied with armaments, those imported Jihadis being explained away as “moderate rebels” who were part of a legitimate and organic native Syrian opposition that the West was supporting on R2P grounds.
Since there was indeed a Syrian opposition, and since there was also a Sunni/Shia divide in Syria – along with the other divides – this explanation passed muster with most in England. But importing Jihadis in such quantities and arming them so generously moved that divide on from being an internal problem to result in the devastating war that that led to the destruction of the old Syria and to a great number of deaths.
This shows the result of our flooding Syria with Jihadis and arms, or part of that result. From X via ZH:-
“When the Syrian “revolution” began 14 years ago the jihadists were chanting to slaughter Alawites and other minorities and later attacked Christian/Druze towns like Maaloula and Adra killing many. They were always bloodthirsty orcs and now they rule Syria. What did you expect?”
The accompanying video shows them chanting something very close to “Christians to Lebanon and Alawis to the grave”, in its various forms a statement of intent much bruited about at the time. These are the same Jihadis as those now in power though the names change regularly. The men who planned 9/11, an atrocity mentioned with approval in the video, we have now put in charge of a country.
https://x.com/HadiNasrallah/status/1898366731216650279?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1898366731216650279%7Ctwgr%5E239f177e3c94c3018ff162efe82ed92099a8cf90%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fuk-lifts-sanction-jolani-regime-syrian-army-barrel-bombs-civilians
The recent Jihadi takeover of Syria is now blamed on the Turks. But there was more to it than that because the Jihadis we had been harbouring in Al Tanf attacked from the south at the same time and that attack was not spontaneous. It had been planned for some time and we, that is the UK and the US, were reported as being implicated in that attack.
Probably correctly – it’s unlikely that a number of Jihadis erupted out of Al Tanf without us knowing about it.
Not that long ago the UK Daily Mail reported a UK MOD press release on the evacuation of a wounded British serviceman from Al Tanf.
The serviceman had been injured outside Al Tanf and had therefore been part of operations out of Al Tanf into the neighbouring parts of Syria. There were no other reports in the press explaining what a British serviceman was doing in operations in Southern Syria, presumably without the knowledge of the then Syrian government, and I have seen no references since. The injured serviceman was evacuated to Cyprus via Israeli airspace, which indicates some degree of liaison between the American and UK forces in Al Tanf and the Israelis.
It was odd that that information, put out by a UK newspaper and backed by a UK MOD press release, was given such publicity. I couldn’t have been the only Englishman who looked at it all and asked the obvious question, “What the hell were British servicemen doing on covert operations in Southern Syria in the first place?” But the information put out was genuine and the conclusion therefore inescapable. We and the Americans were using Al Tanf as a base for covert operations that could only have had as their purpose the destabilisation of the then Assad Regime. “Our” Jihadis who came up from Al Tanf as the Turkish backed Jihadis came down from Idlib were a continuation, or in the event a culmination, of those destabilisation activities.
Now President Trump is saying the takeover was a Turkish venture but he either doesn’t know what the previous administration was doing or doesn’t care to mention it. That whole episode of the removal of the Assad regime should be looked at more carefully and that before the history again gets re-written and accepted as fact.
EO,
There was a non-jihadist opposition to Assad years before the jihadis came in. Even the FSA, the military part of that opposition was mostly former SAA soldiers. That’s the group that the US tried to support. We botched it badly. As we were botching that badly, the various jihadis came in and displaced the non-jihadis. Al Qaeda, then ISIS spread across Syria and Iraq. Eventually we started supporting the Rojava Kurds against ISIS. During that whole time we were saying “Assad must go.” But fighting ISIS soon superseded our desire to get rid of Assad.
Our presence at Al Tanf only made sense as a roadblock for Iranian transit to Syria. It wasn’t all that effective. It served as a base for continuing our botched support of supposedly anti-ISIS rebels. It makes absolutely even less sense to stay there now, although ISIS remains a factor in Syria.
TTG – when I submitted the same link to “b’s” site the comment section, or what I could see of it, went haywire. I therefore deleted all of it up to the question mark and it then worked normally. Might I try re-submitting it here – it’s an X link and these are sometimes difficult to link to.
https://x.com/HadiNasrallah/status/1898366731216650279?
“During that whole time we were saying “Assad must go.” ”
Yes, that is the whole problem.
I have listened to various attacks and smears.
“Cops are pigs.”
“GIs are baby killers.”
America is Amerika or AmeriKKKa.
The bourgeois is so, so bad.
What have I gleaned from these attacks?
That Jews will do anything to gain control.
Keith Harbaugh,
“Assad must go” was said by Obama, Kerry and Clinton. None of them are Jews. But I’m sure Netanyahu also said it.
The other phrases you mention were usually uttered by hippies, blacks and commie wannabes. Sure some of those were probably Jewish, but I have not heard any Jewish groups use those phrases. They’re usually very supportive of US institutions and policies. Why do you think those phrases are indications of Jewish desire for control?
Sure Fred – Keep on believing in your boy Putin, who is now sucking up to HST.
Keith,
Biden was in office when HTS magically came to power. Give Blinken my regards.
Fred –
Biden never tried to do business deals with HTS. Unlike Cadet Bone Spurs who is now “interested in making business deals with the new Syrian government, including access to oil resources in the country’s northeast.”
leith,
So glad to hear Biden had nothing to do with “business deals”; but putting HTS in power, that you left out. Trump didn’t do that one.
Over to De oppresso liber you.
Now this is quite interesting:
Larry Johnson and Judge Napolitano reporting LIVE from Moscow:
https://www.youtube.com/live/dhhAGcDCWeU
A 26 minute, Friday, 2025-03-07, video.
It moves off onto other topics, such as US/Hamas negotiations and US politics,
but the first-hand observations about Moscow were especially interesting to me.
Do you think they might have been accurate, TTG?
Keith Harbaugh,
Yes, central Moscow around Red Square is both impressive and beautiful. Even in the darkest days of Stalin, it was impressive and beautiful. Crime is kept from entering that area. There is little need for a heavy police presence in Red Square.
TTG,
Too bad the US can’t do the same with DC.
I would prefer not living in a police state.
But, mi Coronel, you were incognito?
Keith,
He still hasn’t figured out the dog&pony show part of the trip. As I pointed out to him the last time we spoke regarding his first trip. He’s a 30 minute cab ride away. That’s like staying in Fairfax and driving into D.C. Lots of shiny building to see outside the car window…
It looks to me as if a large element of the AFU military force that invaded the Kursk region of Russia some six months ago has fallen into ‘operational encirclement’. That could be an estimated six thousand to ten thousand men. Neither they nor their equipment will be able to get out. Resupply is not possible. Over the next ten days the extent of this disaster will become apparent. This is big. A ‘cauldron’ is forming.
Tidewater – I didn’t see you’d mentioned what’s happening in Kursk before I submitted a link to a video on it above. Apologies.
E.O.,
No apologies needed. (At least, with me.) You are the leader of the ‘forlorn hope’.
Neither leader nor led, Tidewater. Just someone wondering what’s happened to the Europe I used to know. Or thought I used to know.
Better not be “forlorn hope”. If it is both your country (adopted? Not sure) and mine are due for the scrap heap. Mine first, I’d guess. In spite of the best efforts of Merkel and Scholz yours still has rather more fat left on it.
Open thread, said TTG, so here’s the best from America and from Germany knocking out something pretty special. The conductor knows what he’s about too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDJ6Wbzgy3E&t=31s&ab_channel=hr-Sinfonieorchester%E2%80%93FrankfurtRadioSymphony
TTG, this is a long comment which brings up a controversial issue. If you think that bringing up that issue would be detrimental to the larger enterprise, and choose to not publish this comment, that would be fine with me.
Publish or not, either is fine with me.
—————-
Responding to TTG’s comment
https://turcopolier.com/open-thread-5-march-2025/#comment-248909
There are three separate issues:
1. My direct experience
2. What I have read
3. Inferences I have drawn from various readings
1. I spent the first twenty years of my life in predominantly WASP communities:
Wilkinsburg PA, Florissant MO, and Houston TX (at Rice Univ.). I don’t believe I ever heard anyone personally espouse the thoughts I mentioned above.
Then from September 1967 to January 1973 I was a graduate student at Brandeis University.
I must say that at the personal level Brandeis was a wonderful place. The people there were warm, welcoming and financially generous to me. I ended up not getting my Ph.D., but the fault was entirely mine. I didn’t deserve one. BTW, the student body at Brandeis was roughly 50% Jewish, of whom a sizable percentage were from NYC. And I never noticed the slightest bit of personal animosity or hostility from anyone.nOn the contrary, warm friendships.
However, the level of, and type of, political engagement, in all sorts of ways, via the student newspaper, fliers posted on bulletin boards, meetings, and demonstrations, was unlike anything I had ever seen. Much of that activism was of course directed against the Vietnam War, but a surprisingly large amount of it was expressing the views I mentioned above. Further, to my surprise, there was little if any pushback to many of those, in my view, radical ideas. (Brandeis does not have an indigenous ROTC program. Hmm…Not much interest in that.)
2. The radical criticism of America was pushed in large part by the
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_a_Democratic_Society
Now, what was the makeup of the SDS?
One of the most prominent campus radicals of the 1960s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Rudd
(he was the inspiration for Doonesbury’s “Megaphone Mark”)
has written on that subject:
https://www.markrudd.com/indexcd39?about-mark-rudd/why-were-there-so-many-jews-in-sds-or-the-ordeal-of-civility.html
also at:
https://fastcapitalism.uta.edu/1_2/rudd.html
Here are some extensive excerpts from Rudd’s lengthy article:
Well, enough from Rudd. He goes on and on.
3. All the above is reasonably hard data. Let me give my response to Rudd.
You’ve missed the elephant in the room. That consists of two sayings:
“Never again.” (Or “Nie wieder” in German.), and
“It’s not a matter of if, but when.”
The latter, which I have read in various places, expresses the belief among some Jews that another Holocaust is inevitable, unless something is proactively done now to prevent it.
I believe that some Jews believe that homogeneous gentile white societies dominated by heterosexual patriarchal white men, like Germany in the 1930s and America in the 1950s
are a breeding ground for disaster for the Jews. They saw this happen in Germany in the 1940s, and didn’t want to risk it happening again. I think that explains why the culture and demographics of 1950s America has been so thoroughly destroyed.
If anyone doesn’t see the connection between
1. the totally legitimate Jewish need for “Never again” and
2. the not-so-legitimate destruction of the culture and demographics of 1950s America,
I think they are being obtuse.
Consider what Susan Sontag famously said:
“The white race is the cancer of human history”
Gee thanks, Susan.
Same to you.
Keith Harbaugh,
You went to the trouble of composing this well thought out response so of course I’ll print it. I hope it leads to further conversation.
Keith,
There are other actors at play in the divide and rule history of humanity.
I think it is worthwhile to pay attention to a hugely significant issue:
“If you think the current outlook is bad,
just wait until [Washington] can’t find anyone to buy its debt,
warns Ray Dalio”
https://fortune.com/2025/03/12/national-debt-burden-ray-dalio-foreign-government-pressure/
Without a paywall:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-reaches-3000-as-trade-war-escalates-economic-uncertainty-rises-140658775.html
This is clearly unsustainable.
Keith Harbaugh –
Bring back Sleepy Joe!
https://bsky.app/profile/frakitall.bsky.social/post/3lkb6p56eu22j
LOL no nation on earth will buy US debt. Ukraine’s is available. Oh, wait, they are defaulted on that debt. How about the EU. What is the central taxing authority to generate taxes to pay those bonds? Oh yes they have zero and are dependent upon the member states funding the EU. How is Germany’s economy, France, UK? Any idea? Who is buying that, along with the new Trillion Euro debt for all those militaries ready to engage directly in war in Eastern Europe?
Stop letting these people blow smoke up your a**
Set interest rates at zero, spend spend spend like Joe the Victor of Kabul, lord of the autopen. And all of Europe. Again, stop letting these people blow smoke.