Open Thread – 6 January 2024

Busy shoveling snow today. It looks beautiful, but it’s heavy. County won’t get around to plowing our road until at least tomorrow.

Will post something new tonight or tomorrow morning. Working on an article or two concerning the fate of the Ukrainian 155th Mechanized Brigade and the current Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk salient. It’s a good example of the strengths and weaknesses of the Ukrainian military.

TTG

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58 Responses to Open Thread – 6 January 2024

    • James says:

      leith,

      Justin Trudeau says he plans to step down once the Liberal party chooses a successor. He has also prorogued Parliament until March 24. I think he is trying to buy himself some time.

      • Fred says:

        James,

        “once the Liberal party chooses a successor”

        He is not resigning. He also suspended until March 24th all parliamentary oversight of his government by his actions.

  1. Rob Waddell says:

    Hi All and I hope the new year is going to be bountiful to you all.

    I have been waiting for an “A.I.” thread to popup for my story below, but this first “open” for 2025 will suffice.

    Many here at Turcopolier know Artificial Intelligence or AI has become a large part of our western style modern life, especially in the last few years or even months. Only a few know that AI has been around for at least 100 years but these days. any people have experienced AI in the realm of chatbots so articulate that they are unidentifiable from real human conversation. More sinister aspects of AI are arising like voice cloning scams, deep-fake videos, and many more . My attempts to find out more about the development of AI and chatbots have led me down the proverbial rabbit-hole of intrigue and I relate my findings below.

    The nucleus of serious AI research started in the Psychology department at Stanford University in the late 80’s. In his ivy-covered office, Professor Philip G. Zimbardo initiated a collaboration between Stanford’s Psychology and Computer departments. “Within 10 years, produce a computing machine that would pass any Turing test”. Aida Lovelace, then one of Zimbardo’s post-grad students, explains further in her latest semi-autobiographical book, AI and the End of Humanity. “Using the most advanced AI tools available including deep learning, generative AI and reasoning, a rule-based system could be developed that allows transfer as well as unsupervised learning, the machine would learn to be completely undetectable”. Lovelace further explained that LLM (Heuristic Large Language Model) software developed by Bell Labs (BCE) formed the kernel of the project. After many years of development, ANTHLL (Autonomous Neural Tuning with Heuristic Large Language Model) was ready for delivery.
    Unfortunately, in 2001 Stanford’s mainframe was hacked. The theft of ANTHLL proved too great a blow and the entire effort was abandoned by its main sponsors, the United States Navy and the United States Marine Corps, due to security concerns. Professor Zimbardo died October 2024, most likely by grief due to the abandonment the project.

    Now the real crime story begins. Stanford hackers left a signature that was traced by The Equation Group, an NSA TOA (Tailored Access Operation) unit, to TA505 (Evil Corp). Rather than prosecute TA505, a backdoor deal was done. A new version of ANTHLL would be produced that could be Trojan ’ed into any computer system. The aim would be to flood blogging groups and media outlets with fake messages that would support whatever theme the originators desired. Letters to the editor and comments section in blogs were prime targets of ANTHLL. It didn’t take long for the fake messages to become tedious and recognizable as fake, as there is a limit on how many “God bless America,” or “Don’t mess with Israel” comments can be up-ticked. A new ANTHLL was required.

    Enter Dr. Cyril Borg-Warner. A graduate of Harvard and a MATH-PhD at 17, Borg-Warner was indeed a genius. Deceived by a combined FBI/Mossad honeytrap, the good, but sexually naive doctor was blackmailed into developing a new version of ANTHLL. In 2008, E.R.C. (Emotional Recognition and Conversation) was demonstrated to a panel of high-ranking US military and other government officials. It was immediately accepted.

    Recognizing he could be trapped in a blackmail loop Dr Borg-Warner planted ERC, along with links to its revised HLLM, into hundreds of servers throughout the US. It was to be activated automatically if anything happened to him and indeed this happened. In September 2009 Dr Cyril Borg-Warner was killed in an auto wreck. Evidence showed that the Cruise-O-Matic transmission on his 1972 Ford Turino had mysteriously shifted to reverse and the resultant explosion had caused the vehicle to lock up and crash. The coroner deemed his death “accidental” but many see the event as an organised hit.

    Describing the aftermath of the inevitable release, Helene Luca-Naté of the University of Portsmouth Cybercrime and Cyber Research Group states, “Cyril had weaponized ERC to the extent that it spread exponentially around the world. With no one steering, it would chat aimlessly on any topic, in any language and in any media”. Naté further explained that due to the limited code size of ERC it was, “prone to hallucination as well as various instabilities and artifacts identifying it’s responses as fake”.

    The source code for ERCHLL, pronounced variously EriC or Irk(some) is still available on the dark web and anarchist hacking groups. Luca-Naté adds; “It is regarded as “antique” by modern chatbot standards due to inherent defects but it is still capable of generating emotional responses in many recipients, especially those with a limited worldview. It’s widely used by spy agencies in many countries for this reason”.

    I will finish my story with Dr Lovelace’s apocalyptic comments on the future of AI and humankind.

    “It’s the human condition to make one’s life more content. As contentment becomes fulfilled, reduced inventiveness and a reduction in the will to survive increases. Artificial constructs will replace the human mind which will become more empty. In the search for further happiness, a positive feedback loop will be established that increases happiness but intensifies the emptiness”.

    One does not need to be an expert in computer science, sociology or neurology to observe the beginnings of Aida’s prophecy.

    RobW

    • Fred says:

      Rob,

      Dr. Borg-Warner really should have had a vehicle with an actual Borg-Warner gear box. But then his Bass-O-Matic probably would have done him in one weekend.

    • TonyL, says:

      Hi Rob,

      I recall her name is “Ada Lovelace”.

    • jld says:

      @Rob

      I fail to see the point of your fancy musings.

      AI is mostly already here and of serious concerns, see:
      https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1876084710734184904
      https://x.com/AnthonyNAguirre/status/1876277782713684063

      • Rob Waddell says:

        On the contrary jld, the fact that you have analysed my fancy musings means that you are indeed human.

        I agree that there are serious concerns with large-scale adoption of AI. For me, the most important one is bias or even censorship of the training data. For example, an Eastern worldview AI model may produce different results to a Western worldview model.

        Could that lead to an AI war? a Luddite revolution?

        • LeaNder says:

          “Aida Lovelace, then one of Zimbardo’s post-grad students, explains further in her latest semi-autobiographical book … Lovelace further explained that LLM (Heuristic Large Language Model) software developed by Bell Labs (BCE) formed the kernel of the project.”

          Care to tell the nitwits here on PL#s blog what book & author you are talking about.

    • TTG says:

      Rob,

      My introduction to AI was through a Soviet-educated Polish source of mine back in the early 1990s. To talk with him, I had to read everything I could find on the subject. He described how his goal was to build a machine that could make a leap of faith. He was a fascinating fellow.

      Much latter, in the 2000s, I linked up with a brilliant but unassuming chap who created an entirely new form of mathematics to support his AI machine. This was the first time I experienced an AI that lived and worked in the wild, learning whatever languages and concepts it needed to fulfill its task. The best thing about it was the way it laid out its reasoning for coming to its conclusions. It was not a black box. I saw it as a great tool to use in my online HUMINT job. When I retired, some other government agency latched onto him.

      • Rob Waddell says:

        Hi TTG

        Likewise, my introduction to AI was in the mid-seventies when AI science was termed ‘neural networks’. It was originally based on how neurons in the brain interconnected to generate a learned experience. Computational power then was too small to produce any usable results but that has completely changed now. AI usage in 2022 used consumed around 2% of 450TWh of world energy production.

        An inspiration for my ‘fancy musings’ came from you. Several months (or years) ago you mentioned that you did not use your vehicle GPS to navigate as it hindered acumen. I thought, ‘that’s ‘effin brave..’ . I tried the printed map approach and failed, mainly because you need to keep your eyes on the road while driving. Likewise, ‘memorise the map’ approach. Again, abject failure. If you have reverted to a map app on your device or console for navigation to remote parts, I applaud your sensibility and acumen.

        RobW

        • TTG says:

          Rob,

          I still don’t use GPS in my cars either built-in or smart phone. Rather than trying to read a road map while driving, I prepare a strip map beforehand with only the roads, turns and significant landmarks annotated. I find it a lot easier to glance at than some center screen GPS map. Part of it is just force of habit. I’ve always used paper maps and charts. I learned to run full tilt through the briars and brambles on the ROTC orienteering teem in college with a map in one hand and a compass in the other. I also do all my coastal piloting without electronics, although I wouldn’t do that in the Everglades Challenge. I’m not that much of a dummy.

  2. English Outsider says:

    Of an evening, Christmas or not, I solemnly plod on for half an hour or so watching what this expert or that has to tell me about the current plight of the West and of the more urgent plight of those whose lives the West is shattering or helping shatter. While I do so, in the right hand strip of screen, some algorithm puts up performances I’d much rather be hearing. Sometimes I yield to the temptation and like a schoolboy dodging his studies I move into a different world. Glad I did for this one. Hilary Hahn is becoming a legend:-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDJ6Wbzgy3E&ab_channel=hr-Sinfonieorchester%E2%80%93FrankfurtRadioSymphony

    To bring Adorno up to date, “No poetry after Gaza?” But we must permit ourselves some, even at this time.

  3. Lars says:

    I am not sure that in 1870’s, anyone would expect Aida to become a classic opera, but it did. Regarding Ada, I would take anything she says seriously, although philosophy was not her main expertise. I am sure AI will change the world substantially, and there are dangers. Alfred Nobel thought his invention would improve the world and he was very disappointed when the main usage became military. It bothered him so much that he dedicated his vast fortune to enhance humanity. Given the poor efforts by governments, that will increase the danger that this technology will create dismal effects. There are plenty of potentials and hopefully they will dominate.

  4. Keith Harbaugh says:

    Some of you live in Germany,
    so I thought I would recall my experience in Germany, to see if any of you might enjoy commenting on what I found there.
    Perhaps others had similar experiences they would like to share.

    In the summer of 1978, I spent two weeks in Germany.
    I was on active duty in the US Army at the time,
    and was on what the Army calls a TDY, paid for by the Army.
    The initial part of the TDY was installing a computer system at Field Station Augsburg
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USASA_Field_Station_Augsburg ,
    whose development I had played a part in.

    After long days at FSA,
    in the evening I drove west on the autobahn to the Gasthaus Zur Post https://www.posthalterei.com/
    (discovered via the Michelin Red Guide)
    in Zusmarshausen https://maps.app.goo.gl/1aPydZZfGi82SmCK6 ,
    and stopped at its pub to enjoy a German dinner mit bier
    before retiring for the night.
    A delightful experience!
    All their staff I encountered spoke perfect English!
    I wore my uniform as an American Army officer, but the staff couldn’t have been nicer to me.
    Evidently the hostilities of the 1940s were forgiven.
    All in all, a delightful experience.

    After finishing my work at FSA, I drove through the Bavarian countryside by the
    Chiemsee
    https://g.co/kgs/ebdxNo9 .

    The Bavarian hillsides were right out of “The Sound of Music.”
    One, perhaps 500 feet high, had a beautiful chalet near the top of its lush green slope.
    The chalet (in this setting) looked like something from which Julie Andrews would emerge, skipping down the slope singing “The Hills Are Alive With the Sound of Music”
    https://youtu.be/6f0T6UV-HiI
    The setting had that sort of natural beauty.

    I then drove to Salzburg to see the city and its
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salzburg_Residenz.
    And took a side trip to admire the
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zugspitze .

    Then it was on to visit other Army installations:
    in Berlin (FSB),
    Frankfurt (V Corps, in the IG
    Farben building, with its https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paternoster_lift ),
    and Heidelberg (USAREUR),
    but have nothing worth saying about those.
    Pure business.

    ———–

    With hindsight, looking back on this in 2025, almost 50 years later,
    it’s amazing how smoothly my trip to Germany went.

    I flew into a German airport, most likely Frankfurt, and rented a car, with just my American driver’s license, credit card, and TDY orders.

    With absolutely minimal knowledge of German, nothing beyond Guten morgan, Guten a end, and danke schön, and a map,
    I was able to figure out the roads and get from the airport to Zur Post and Field Station Augsburg, and onwards.

    All the Germans I met were extraordinarily polite, friendly, courteous, and almost invariably could speak and understand English.

    All in all, I really enjoyed German hospitality (gemütlichkeit), culture, and scenery.

    • Stefan says:

      I was actually born on one of the military bases in Germany, both of my parents being officers in the US military. The Sound of Music was actually filmed in and around Salzburg. I dont know about in the late 1970s, but they have offered tours of the spots used in the movie for some decades now.

      The English the Germans speak is often better than Americans, only outdone by the Scandinavians in my experience. I lived in Germany for 6 years as a kid and came back from time to time for work as an adult and spent a lot of time there when I lived in England.

      From an American military stand point it has changed so much since I was a kid. Used to be so much military presence all over Germany but I have watched that dwindle over the decades.

  5. Fred says:

    I see the VP has certified the election of an Existential Threat to be President of the United States. I wonder when the apologies happen.

    • TonyL, says:

      A peaceful certification. Nobody defecated in Congress chamber, attacked the police, or threaten to hang the VP. And the current President was not waiting to declare Martial Law, either.

      • Fred says:

        TonyL,

        President Biden has said Trump is an “Existential Threat” to democracy. That means what? Nothing because it was all just campaign puffery?

    • Lars says:

      She did what she was suppose to do. I guess that is a novelty to some. But what is extraordinary is that the election system has fixed itself in just 4 years. Of course, we know how that came about.

      • Fred says:

        Lars,

        The election system fixed itself? How can that be? Trump inspired a violent insurrection, don’t you remember? No, Kamala did not “do what she was supposed to do” she BETRAYED DEMOCRACY! by certifying the man who is an EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO DEMOCRACY as the winner of the election.
        Trump is an existential threat to democracry, President Biden, totally capable to being president but not able to testify in person or campaign for office, said so. So did Kamala. Don’t you remember…….

        Now on to Project 2025. Deportations, Greenland, and what else is in that…..

        • Lars says:

          VP Harris accepted the outcome of the election and this is now a newfound ability among Republicans. Of course, they now claim a mandate with Trump winning with less that 1.5 %. Fairly soon, Reality will enter the picture and Trump has historically had a hard time with it.

          • Fred says:

            VP Harris claimed Trump was an existential threat to the US. When did that cease to be true and become a lie? Did reality enter the picture is is that still ‘fairly soon’?

            How did the election system fix itself? Was that reality in this year but not in 2020?

  6. Poul says:

    Well, it was a coup in Romania. But Russia’s role was that of a patsy while the pro-EU crowd ran the show.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/investigation-ties-romanian-liberals-tiktok-campaign-pro-russia-candidate-calin-georgescu/

    “According to the snoop.ro report, the Romanian tax agency found that the Liberals had paid for a social media campaign on TikTok through influencers and by promoting a hashtag which ended up being hijacked to benefit Georgescu instead. The Liberals are a junior coalition partner in the outgoing government and their candidate, Nicolae Ciuca, placed fifth in the annulled first round.”

  7. jld says:

    I want to highlight more serious problems than AI or “provincial” worries about elections, TDS or Russiaphobia.

    Have you heard of René Girard mimetic crisis and scapegoating?
    https://youtu.be/L-vB1HaBsog

    This is a true existential threat for which we have no clue.

  8. ked says:

    TTG, found this little slice of culture that reminded me of your deep connections there, as well as your attachment to the forests, swamps & rivers of Virginia (one of my favorite states, having lived there three distinct times myself). Aside from the forest’s yield & refined subculture… a fine place to wander about.

    https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20250106-the-national-park-that-draws-mushroom-hunters-from-around-the-world

    • TTG says:

      ked,

      We would go into the forest after almost every rain with my father gathering mushrooms. He knew the varieties well. He could tell who got to some of the mushrooms first just by the way they were cut. We had a lot of mushroom loving Lithuanians in our town. I remember boiling up a big pot and enjoying them with sour cream.

  9. Stefan says:

    8 inches or so of snow here in the DC bedroom suburb of Fairfax. My 6 year old daughter has loved it. We went to Arizona looking for snow in the usual spots in Flagstaff only to find nothing. Usually they have had feet of snow by this time, but only few inches this year. Only to come back just in time to get it here.

  10. TonyL, says:

    “Trump Is Facing a Catastrophic Defeat in Ukraine” (behind the paywall)
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/01/trump-putin-ukraine-russia-war/681228/

    So the Neocons finally threw in the towel.

    • Keith Harbaugh says:

      There is a diametrically opposite POV:

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/01/06/ukraine-is-humiliating-putin-at-the-worst-possible-moment/
      by Hamish de Bretton-Gordon

      “The new year brings rather more hope to President Zelensky than Vladimir Putin, I judge.
      The latter may have been a brilliant spy but is being exposed as a dreadful military commander.

      With his three-week special military operation now approaching its fourth year, it seems most likely that Zelensky will still be in power this time next year and Putin’s best hope may be a villa in North Korea or breaking rocks in the Urals.”

      I don’t know which POV is right and which is wrong.
      But I think it worth noting that both points of view are being advanced by respectable people.

      • TonyL, says:

        Hamish de Bretton-Gordon does not seem to realize that the narrative has changed. Even the neocon master Robert Kagan has openly admitted defeat.

        BTW, I find neither Bretton-Gordon nor Kagan has a resppectable POV.

    • Fred says:

      Zelenski is president of Ukraine. Trump had zero to do with this war. Please get with the new narrative. Like George Floyd “convicted felon”.

  11. Keith Harbaugh says:

    President Trump promises he will give a report on drones after he is inaugurated.
    Also, the governors of Virginia and Louisiana tell of drones over critical installations in their states.

    https://youtu.be/KD5m42Vlm28
    2 minutes 38 seconds

    • Keith Harbaugh says:

      Marik van Remmenkampff summarizes the situation here:

      Mysterious drone incursions baffle US officials https://thehill.com/opinion/5043276-drones-baffle-authorities/
      2024-12-17

      Over the last five years, a series of brazen incursions involving objects that exhibit seemingly highly advanced technology, have left local, state and federal authorities baffled.
      In short, an unknown actor appears to be sending a stark message:
      “We can operate drone-like vehicles in American skies, over critical infrastructure and hover even above sensitive military facilities with complete impunity.”

    • Keith Harbaugh says:

      A more current column by von Rennenkampff:

      Mysterious ‘drones’ are indeed UFOs — and should be taken seriously https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5077295-some-of-these-mysterious-drones-are-indeed-ufos-and-should-be-taken-seriously/
      2025-01-10

      In recent years, mysterious “drones” have hovered with impunity above sensitive government facilities,
      spurring urgent briefings at the White House and at the highest levels of the British government.
      Not only can the objects involved in these incursions evade detection and sophisticated countermeasures,
      they also demonstrate an array of extraordinary flight characteristics.

      To be sure, some recent drone incidents are likely espionage or intimidation operations.
      But until conventional drone technology is conclusively linked to the most brazen incursions, these craft must be considered UFOs —
      or, as Congress and the government now prefer, “unidentified anomalous phenomena.”

    • Condottiere says:

      The only logical conspiracy theory is from wackball Alex Jones. They are among compartmented special access programs. They are an anti-hypersonic missile defense system. We were showing them off to Putin after he fired his hypersonics into Ukraine. This is why they are deployed over critical infrastructure and US bases and the USG is keeping quiet. Instead of saying its a masonic reptilian false flag to bring about new world order, Alex is sort of making sense. It’s honest and out of character.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnofCyaWhI0
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBMU6l6GsdM

      A week after these drones appeared Putin challenged us with a missile dual at at a predetermined safe area.
      https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idRW828619122024RP1/

  12. Keith Harbaugh says:

    I want to recommend watching (4 hours!) the first round of questions of SecDef nominee Pete Hegseth before the Senate Armed Services Committee on 2025-01-14.

    https://youtu.be/NwLLCRI8usM

    It is really interesting to see what the senators chose to ask about, and how he responded.

  13. Keith Harbaugh says:

    This seems significant:

    “[House Speaker Mike] Johnson removes Mike Turner as House Intelligence chair
    The Ohio Republican has been an outspoken advocate for Ukraine funding and other hawkish national security stances.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/15/johnson-removes-mike-turner-as-intel-chair-00198522

  14. Fred says:

    More news you never see:
    “De Santis gets a law passed to require audits of teachers unions. Jacksonville union officials retire abruptly. ”
    Embezzlement anyone?

    https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2025/01/14/why-did-desantis-do-this-to-us-duval-teachers-union-ex-prez-and-vp-right-now-probably-n3798792

  15. KjHeart says:

    USS John F Kennedy going to scrapyard – good article in War Zone with video of the towing and excellent info on the process.

    A lot of photos and vodeos documenting this ‘final voyage’

    https://www.twz.com/sea/the-famed-ex-uss-john-f-kennedy-casts-off-on-its-final-voyage

    KjHeart

    • leith says:

      Sold to that TX scrap metal company for $0.01.

      There’s probably close to 20,000 pounds of copper and copper alloy on that ship.

      • KjHeart says:

        According to the video – there are too many ‘remediations’ needed for the asbestos and lead paint and such; the recycled or recovered metal will just offset to costs (of course a good scrapyard will always say that) . Still… sad to see her go.

        Oh… and thanks everyone for the comments on my bad type-o – hope someone got a smile out of it anyway =)

        KjHeart

  16. KjHeart says:

    Oh my gosh – if my type-o could be corrcted? voodeos – ‘yikes’ that is a bad one

    • leaNder says:

      Nothing to worry. But I do like your creative impulse. Voodeos, F&L would love that one.

      Us more profane, fact-oriented kind, would simply suggest, ah well, i and o are actually pretty close on our keyboards. 😉

      • leith says:

        LeaNder-

        Yep. I’ve butchered a lot of comments and/or emails due to:
        a] tiny keyboards;
        b] autocomplete s/w AKA predictive text;
        c] advanced age reverse dyslexia;
        d] all of the above.

        • leaNder says:

          Yes, helpful additions. leith. 😉

          I find a) and b) quite annoying, really. But there you go; you gotta live with with a) occasionally. The younger seem to use both quite efficiently though. …

          Advanced age reverse dyslexia?-reverse or not, might be a topic for my sister the teacher & art therapist with a big heart for those kids. Might help me to close the circle, rhetorically speaking, dyslexia may not simply be a learning disorder but a creative gift.

          She is quite a bit younger than me, and I have to admit I was often amused by her spellings when she was a kid. Creative? Definitively. A decade or two later in her training year as teacher before her final state exam she convinced me with some elementary school kids’ essays. ‘Twas easy to see.

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