Until further notice. pl
RSS- Trump threatens BRICS nations with 100 percent tariffs
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All
Merkel seems to be predicting a lot of dead Germans.
Dear SST,
For those interested in data instead of propaganda from politicos doing CYA,
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext
—
By all measures, the literature says worse than 1918 flu (Ro, Interval time, Incubation time, asymptomatic infection. There is a reason China shut down its economy and now Italy – and its not because the Chinese give a damn about public opinion – and it is all accessible in peer reviewed open literature.
I’m 77, but am more worried about Covid-19 effect on Wall St than I am about SWMBO and I.
Also confess to be worried about American troops in Korea, Iraq, and Syria being infected with coronavirus. I’m also concerned about the troops and their dependents on the 15 US military bases where coronavirus patients were quarantined.
Might not it be prudent to take all personnel currently in basic training from all branches and give them basic medic training and oxygen ventilator training and have them ready to deploy where ever needed. The Lombard region of Italy is already considering lowering the triage age from 70 to 60.
I know of a Miami emergency room tech who just finished a 72 hour shift, was given a 12 hour break who says they are overwhelmed and getting burned out.
Sir,
Do you still have any of your old Spam recipes lying around?
This is primarily a disease of self-inoculation. The corona hysteria is coming from those who demand their God-given right to stick their own dirty fingers into their own nose, mouth and eyes.
But like all torch and pitch fork witch hunts, there is some deeply destabling psyche gripping our nation and in fact the world right now., that undergirds this hysteria That is the more interesting question.
Open borders and loss of culture is huge. Hunker down and throw up barriers against the Unknown. Something is at work both destroying the Establishment, while yearning for stability at the same time. Battered by relentless examples of demonstrated hypocrisy from all sides is very de-stabilizing.
Shades of Weimar Germany, anyone? We need bedrock and we are getting bedlam. But this is primarily and inside game; too many are looking for outside fixes. The path to this point is obvious; the solution is the yet to have arrived Black Swan.
Mortality touches a new generation that never had to come to grips with it at all – not seasoned by WWII, polio, Depression-Age parents, Vietnam…. but this time mortality rides in on the politically-exploited corona virus. A relative ho-hum as a disase vector but symbolically of all the above.
The watershed is does one worry themselves sick and wait for the government to do something, or does one re-take personal responsibility for any outcomes and follow common sense, self-protective disease transmission protocols.
A good Myers-Briggss personality inventory analysis of those who feel helpless and vulnerable and those who remain sanguine about this “unknown” flu virus would be instructional.
The irony is the more we turn our lives over to state control and beneficence, the more out of control the sense of our own individual lives become.
Myers-Briggs reveals the extra-verted personality and the intra-verted personality.
Is one mainly buffeted by outside events (the extraverted personality) or does one with due caution retain personal control over their own life (intra-verted personality).
Data suggest the larger majority are extra-verted. Hence the readiness to accept the “we are all gonna die” hysterias currently getting exploited. Any why winning parties who sell optimism are equally exploitive in their own way. Happy days are here again …. it is morning again in America. vs. we are all gonna die in 12 years which is morphed into we are all gonna die tomorrow.
Irony noted, we now have two very elderly men running for President and no spring chicken currently holding office, giving lie to the fact we are all soon gonna die.
ISL,
So, started in China, the older you are the worse (and more probably fatal) it is. No surprise for an obvious conclusion, and “our study has some limitations”. Quite the understatement there.
Is this the same Lancet that has to retract major “Lanmark study” papers for major errors?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2831678/
Dr. Anthony Fauci: “It is ten times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”
Congressional testimony by NIH guy.
https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1237771799087263746?s=21
D
Extreme INTP here. Wife also.
tidewater
Available online.
WHO has officially declared COVID 19 a pandemic.
Today’s WHO press briefing was excellent (link below). The questions being asked by journalists have improved significantly over the last few weeks which has given the WHO team an opportunity to explain important points. Today they looked at the situation in Iran, Korea, Italy and the sub Saharan Africa region. They also have officially declared a Pandemic.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/watch-live-who-holds-press-conference-on-the-coronavirus-outbreak.html?&qsearchterm=Watch:%20World%20Health%20Organization
There have been a number of graphs out today looking at the rate of Covid infections. It is exponential so far and appears to be tracking Italy’s experience pretty well. If we continue at this same rate we would reach the level at which other countries closed schools and had mass transportation shutdowns in one or two weeks. Shutting down schools in particular will be a tough decision. Kids seem to mostly be spared, but they may be disease vectors. OTOH if they are shutdown a lot of health care workers will need to stay home. Near as I can tell I would lose 10% or so of my staff and more on an intermittent basis.
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-update.html
highly recommended:
interview with Michael Osterholm, internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1237811649542848514?s=21
Are large budgets indicative of effectiveness?
In the lesson to learn category.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/10/21171722/taiwan-coronavirus-china-social-distancing-quarantine
Soul mates:
I NTP is an acronym used to describe one of the sixteen personality types created by Katharine Briggs and Isabel Myers. It stands for Introverted, iNtuitive, Thinking, Perceiving.
INTP indicates a person who is energized by time alone (Introverted), who focuses on ideas and concepts rather than facts and details (iNtuitive), who makes decisions based on logic and reason (Thinking) and who prefers to be spontaneous and flexible rather than planned and organized (Perceiving).
INTPs are sometimes referred to as Architect personalities because of their intuitive understanding of complex systems.
Fred
If you are denying all peer reviewed literature, then you are saying no one knows anything because someone gamed the system once. Have you reviewed the study methodology? What is your specific comment on how it is methodologically flawed? I guess if red herrings are your thing, god bless.
i too recommend the JRE interview with M. Osterholm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
Italy is reporting large numbers of 40 year olds needing hospitalization and ventilation.
Meanwhile, the US has 50,000,000 respirators and masks and NO mask making machines, and 18 million health care workers. 2 day supply.
There is still way to much hype in the media and it’s amplified by people quoting scientific research out of context. For example the Lancet paper does not say “worse than 1918” at all. That may be ISL’s conclusion, not the researchers. We do not know if it is correct.
What the Lancet says is old age high blood pressure, heart disease, diabetes and suchlike lower your chances of survival.
I think Australia is likely to try quarantine next week, but that is just a guess from listening to various politicians.
I recall the days when AIDS was going to kill us all. But here we are.
Farr’s Law is already proving true again in China. China is now on the downside of the infection curve. I believe that other countries will follow the same path in pretty much the same time frame. So by early June at the latest, this virus will have burned out. Deaths will be about the same as the regular old flu +/- 6.5%…..and all of the chicken littles will already be onto the next existential crisis.
D, I agree with your psychological assessment. Also, this is an opportunity for lots of normally obscure geeks in obscure departments and organizations to obtain 15 minutes of fame and years worth of funding. It’s a lot like “climatologists” and global warming. of course, there are political opportunists getting into the mix as well.
Jack, depends on how you measure effeictiveness. if growing big government is the end point of more funding, this tactic is exceptionally effective.
Well, sorry to report this for those of you who are worried: Our local paper reported an older woman had contracted the virus. Next day, we get the news that she had NOT contracted the virus.
So far, not many people here are in panic mode. I am and have been for a long time since working in public schools, someone who has always spent more time than most washing my hands with good antiseptic soap. That was to prevent myself from coming down with the germs and viruses that 1,500 kids might bring into the building. My first years of teaching did find me often sick on weekends, but after a while, I had developed some immunity.
I don’t remember any of the other virus scares reaching us where I live. Perhaps it’s good to live in a place where many people don’t come to live or vacation. It’s boring to many, but I like the lack of drama.
I had become used to the receptionists at my medical facility asking me if I had spent time in West Africa recently because of the Ebola virus, but they stopped asking a while back. Maybe I’ll get questions about China now.
I’m grateful to be living in a country with a good medical system, but I certainly do my best not to need it.
Our building management has put into place the recommended methods for protecting the inhabitants and the staff.
Again, I report no panic here in my home town in northern Colorado. We did hear from a teacher friend in Western Mass. whose school was cancelled when a child reported the school bus driver blew his nose on the bus. As it turned out he had a cold.
If I don’t seem worried enough, I give everyone permission to laugh at me IF I catch this thing.
ISL,
Discredit, disqualify is an old troll tactic. You posted one comment and link to one study from the Lancet. I commented on that study and agreed with their conclusions, which you apparently missed, and linked to one failure of the Lancet’s peer review process leading to a retraction. Your “If you are denying all peer reviewed literature….” followed by an appeal for credentials is an unnecessary cry of outrage. The Lancet discredit their own study with their disclaimer.
There goes your European holiday, and possibly mine. The President just shut down European travel.
Walrus,
Glad I made that last trip to Paris, though seeing Notre Dame on fire drove me to the edge. Still working on writing something about that worthy of SST.
Walrus
Fly to London and travel over. They’re not gonna test you since there’s not many test kits available.
I have first hand information of people who traveled over from China when there is purportedly a travel ban from China. They were not quarantined on arrival. In this case they arrived from a third country and it’s a-ok. There was no questioning or examination of their passport to determine if they’d been in the no-go zone recently.
It’s largely a sham. If the government was serious about preventing entry of infected persons they would test every passenger before they boarded all flights to the US.
Sir,
There’s a headline glitch on “COVID-19”. No big deal, but …
How do we quarantine a population like ours long enough to squash the spread of this virus? How do we prioritize physical health over economic health, at least temporarily? Once this pandemic dies down, one way or another, do we as a nation invest in the capacity to deal with future pandemics? It does seem our government doesn’t know whether to sh*t or go blind on this one. I love that phrase too, Colonel Lang. I also learned it from my father who picked it up in the 45 to 47 Marine Corps.
I’m still watching the Everglades Challenge. It appears Rob Waddell and the Southern Cross were only a couple of nautical miles south of the Key Largo finish point a few hours ago.
This thread linked below and the video embedded of the South Korean press conference discussing their management plan is well worth the few minutes as it provides insight on what they did.
Since frequent hand-washing is going to be a part of circuit-breaking the fast spreading around of coronavirus, this little chart purporting to show frequently-missed areas of the hand during handwashing might be useful.
https://i.redd.it/twu6hs9fb4m41.jpg
Jack,
So rather the stopping all travel from china, even people purposely circumventing the ban like you describe, you do a test that may be negative due to the infected person being asymptomatic at that moment? The true question is how much of the spread of the virus is due to malicious actors circumventing the travel restrictions.
Via a friend (I agree with his thinking).
The outbreak in China, which was almost completely confined to the Hubei province, seems to be largely over, so it’s possible to look at the totals and draw tentative conclusions.
Overall, 80,796 infections were reported in China. Deaths numbered 3,169. This works out to a mortality rate of 3.9%. But this mortality rate applies only to cases severe enough to result in medical intervention. Many people recovered without seeing a doctor, so the actual mortality rate must be lower. It is estimated that up to 90% of patients will have mild (or no) symptoms, so the mortality rate of 3.9% could be too high by a factor of ten.
Hubei province’s population is 57 million. Since 80,796 people got sick enough to be seen by doctors, we can say that severe infections occurred at a rate of 0.14%.
Wuhan, the largest city in the province and the epicenter of the outbreak, has a population of 11 million. If we make the unlikely assumption that all 80,796 reported infections occurred in Wuhan itself, this works out to a severe infection rate of 0.7%.
What do these figures mean for the US, with a population of 350 million? If we assume the same rate of severe infection and mortality as in Hubei province, then we could see about 490,000 Americans severely infected and about 19,509 fatalities.
Or if we look at a particular city – say, New York City, population 8 million – and compare it to the city of Wuhan, we could see 56,000 New Yorkers reporting a severe infection, and as many as 2,100 fatalities.
These numbers are probably too high, though. Most fatalities from the virus are attributable to complications like pneumonia and bronchitis, which are much less likely to prove lethal in First World countries.
The number of severe infections, if it reaches these levels, will surely strain our medical resources, especially if cases are concentrated in only a few localities. Still, it’s worth bearing in mind that this year’s milder-than-usual flu season is already responsible for approximately 20,000 deaths in the US.
People with compromised immune systems should take special precautions, since they are at higher risk. For most Americans, the new coronavirus seems unlikely to prove much more hazardous than seasonal flu.
Fred,
I’m not suggesting not to have a ban. I’m suggesting do more than a sham ban. Check the passport of every passenger on arrival to determine if they’ve been in a banned area recently. What’s the point in a ban if there’s not gonna be any screening? While the tests are not 100% accurate and do provide some false negatives, testing all passengers to the US coupled with doing what the South Koreans did which was having every traveler’s contact information and tracking if they developed any symptoms will allow a proactive stance. Nothing is completely foolproof but testing at scale along with social distancing seem to at least bend the curve.
Taiwan with over a million visitors from China annually took an early and proactive stance. They learned from the SARS experience and didn’t just have a thousand page pandemic response plan collecting dust, they had staff who were competent who didn’t just say “it’s just the flu” and sat around. They acted proactively in December when it was not clear that it would be an epidemic. Their attitude was better to over-react than get caught with their pants down. They don’t have the downstream effects like we have now with colleges and conventions and business travel being voluntarily curtailed out of concern.
We seem to be good at lecturing the world about all kinds of things and hollering shining city on the hill but when it comes to actually delivering during a domestic emergency we find that we’re like the 3 Stooges.
Different Clue mentioned hand-washing. If you, like me, are washing your hands more frequently and using wet-wipes, it’s important to also use a hand moisturizer as well – once a day anyways.
Watch out for very stupid people, we knew there was an emergency event in Miami last night but didn’t find out till this morning what it was: a man quite ill somehow got himself tested for coronavirus and then hopped on a plane from NY to Palm Beach. He received a call that he was positive for the virus while still on the ground in NY but didn’t tell anyone till the plane landed.
“I recall the days when AIDS was going to kill us all. But here we are.”
Yes, here we are, minus approximately 32 million people.
Also, did anyone say, “AIDS was going to kill us all”? Didn’t the list of those who died of AIDS consist almost exclusively of drug users who share needles and those who engage in unprotected gay sex or unprotected non-gay sex with those who already were HIV positive?
https://knowledgeofhealth.com/trump-halts-cdc-fearmongering/
This is ten days old but I haven’t seen it here: by Bill Sardi based on an interview with Lawrence Broxmeyer, MD. I’m not familiar with the Dr; Sardi may be considered an “alternative medicine” advocate by the MSM. I haven’t seen the interview itself.
This discusses the hypothesis that the epidemic consists of novel flu + TB, making comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic (which originated in Kansas). TB is a going concern in China, less so in the US, but not unheard of.
My sense is that this line of discussion has been taken up to some degree by the medical community. Would any professional here be able to comment?
Larry Kart,
AIDS has killed around 700K people in the US since first recognized in 1981. And yes, most of those fatalities are drug users, homosexuals and assorted idiots and degenerates. If you take Africa and Haiti out of equation and stick to civilized countries, AIDS was never a big threat. I must remember the 80s differently than you do. I recall a hysteria over HIV/AIDS, how it was going to wipe out healthcare workers, first responders and lots and lots of normal people. Part of the hysteria was homosexual propaganda that anal sex is no different from normal heterosexual sex, but it was eventually proven that HIV doesn’t spread very easily via normal heterosexual sex. You pretty much had to be an irresponsible idiot to contract HIV/AIDS. And thus the panic died out in civilized countries.
Eric Newhill. The epidemic is over in China because the government took immediate and drastic action to enforce quarantine in Hubei and surrounding provinces. People were locked, even welded, into their homes and businesses were closed. This was enforced by Police at gunpoint.
America is legally and ethically incapable of doing the same. We will have to come up with another plan.
Fred – it’s mucky stats, this thing, and the epidemiologists must be having a hell of a difficult time modeling it.
OK, we all know it’s flatten the curve, but go all out on that, close everything and do maximum self-isolating, and the economy crumbles. Even if one disregards that, such extreme measures to control the spread impact the health workers themselves; and also those making or distributing medical equipment. Not the sort of effect you want.
And of course one cannot in any case disregard the financial/economic impact. If that’s not put into the model you could – to take an extreme case – save the maximum number of people but starve many more. Lesser versions of that extreme case do have to be factored in though. We’re not seeing much recognition of that in the media. Snowflakes think the economy just happens somehow and will carry on doing so.
Then there’s the argument that if dramatic control measures are put in place to control the spread, you’re just postponing the evil hour. The virus comes roaring back later among the non-immune population. And the draconian measures we’ve seen in China aren’t physically possible in the West in any case.
I’d hate to be the mathematician attempting to steer the best course through that lot.
I’m seeing a lot of criticism of Trump for not doing better. Over here the same – suggestions that the UK Prime Minister doesn’t care, or even that he wishes to see some sort of cull. Complete rubbish, but many choose to believe it. No recognition that this is a difficult one and maybe impossible to get dead right.
And in both countries there’s no sense of all sides pulling together – as with everything else, many in your country and many in mine are only looking for ammunition with which to pursue the usual violently partisan politics.
We may expect a fair few deaths and some serious economic damage. When we’ve got through that it’ll maybe be time to look at the ridiculously long and complex supply lines we at present all accept as normal. And maybe to look at one or two other things. But I don’t expect there’ll be a lot of common sense around then either.
I liked your President’s announcement. Good blend of realism and morale building. He, or his scriptwriters, doesn’t matter here, do seem to be aware of those other difficult factors.
Walrus,
If people are going to insist on going crazy over a flu in America, then they will self isolate and take other self-directed measures. No need to weld them into their homes (yes I saw a video of the Chinese doing that).
BTW, IMO, the test is showing a lot of false positives that are other forms of coronavirus.
Too many people saw the Matt Damon movie “Contagion” and think life is imitating life right now – Corona flu has become the Great Zombie Apocalyspe that uber-Leftist Matt Damon in the movie warned us about.
Same thing happened after too many people thought One Flew Over the CooKoo’s Nest was a documentary, a few decades ago – led to closing down all the mental hospitals in the US and exploded the crazy street people population.
No one can undo the ACLU-inspired legislation passed after that movie came out ,that makes it now virtually impossible to take clearly impaired people of the streets in California.
All because of life imitating art in a leftist agenda movie. Dump all these cases in Hollywood, where they belong.
Lawrence Kart,
In 1981 the US population was 230 million, now it’s 330 million and 32 million Americans didn’t die from aids. On a brighter note thanks to recent California legislation one does not even have to tell your sex partners you have it.
English,
As walrus pointed out we are not a police state. This virus though has given America’s enemies, and Donald Trump’s in particular, a unique opportunity to take advantage by engaging in world class IO operations and legislatively try to do what the democrats are doing in Virginia. When this blows over, which it will, Trump needs to turn a blowtorch on all of these people. He should start by putting a foot up Barry’s rump and get some indictments going for”Russia, Russia, Russia.
Japan – 1,337 cases, 23 deaths
Hong Kong – 126 cases, 3 deaths
Germany – 2,078 cases, 3 deaths
South Korea – 7,869 cases, 66 deaths
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/countries-confirmed-cases-coronavirus-200125070959786.html
Italy- 12,462 cases, 1,016 deaths
https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/heres-why-the-coronavirus-death-rate-is-so-high-in-italy/
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/03/12/South-Korea-experts-recommend-anti-HIV-anti-malaria-drugs-for-COVID-19/6961584012321/
“South Korean experts are also recommending the use of hydroxychloroquine in combination with the anti-HIV medication. HCQ is sold under the brand name Plaquenil, among others, and is used for the prevention and treatment of malaria.”
https://pj.jiho.jp/article/241682
“A patient with the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 saw symptoms improve after being treated with Sanofi’s immune modulator Plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine sulfate), according to the latest report posted on the website of the Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases.”
My wife has lupus and is immune suppressed. She has been admitted to the hospital for several pneumonias in the past. She is on Plaquenil, so I found this somewhat encouraging.
Re HIV
While it obeys all the laws of epidemics that also apply to COVID there are very important difference. The transmission method and generation time being key. It is a lot easier to control who you have sex with, or if you share needles, than whose breath you inhale or what you touch. The generation cycle for COVID is less than a week for HIV years. That time gives ample opportunity to contact trace and has allowed for the development of drugs that work and make the disease treatable. For COVID we have a current crude CAR (clinical attack rate) of 135k/7.8B which is 0.00% to two decimal place the CAR for seasonal flu is about 20% and in pandemic years this is 30-50% due to no existing immunity in the population. Epidemiologist who tend to be conservative in their estimates expect a CFR in the 30 to 50% range. In other words if we do not contain it the epidemic is in its infancy and every town and city should expect to have its Wuhan experience. Until serological testing is complete (and we do not even have any preliminary data yet) we will not know either how many sub-clinical cases there are or if post infection immunity is acquired or how long it might last. The major problem, that is not getting much attention, is if we do not stamp it out now it may just become another human endemic disease (like flu and HIV) which is permanently circulating in the population. It would be nice if the annual CDC butcher’s bill did not read flu 35k deaths, COVID 350k deaths.
Eric what do you base your opinion that the test are picking up other CoVs? The probes in any of the PCR tests are picked specifically to not pick up MERS or SARS which are betaCoVs the only other human CoVs are not are far removed genetically and definitely not going to give a false positive.
JJackson,
Can you explain to me (sincerely asked) how, for example, S. Korea was able to have ubiquitous tests for this specific virus not only developed, but also distributed within a month or two (at the most) from the first cases being reported in China?
The SoKos are either super scientists and industrialists in a super organized society, or there is some degree of BS associated with the tests. Being a skeptic (in the scientific sense), I have to assume BS is the right answer. However, if you can explain it to me in a way I can understand, I will change my mind. Please include the genetic science aspect in your explanation. Thanks!
JJackson,
I am also arguing that you have no idea that this is true – “For COVID we have a current crude CAR (clinical attack rate) of 135k/7.8B ”
Nor do you really know what it is for seasonal flues.
Only the worst cases present to healthcare providers and become included in the statistic. Generally, with the flu, people rest at home, get better and get back to life as usual. However, when people are told that there’s a killer virus afoot, they get sick, panic and do present to a healthcare provider and do become part of the statistics. So, by nature of the hype effect, COVID-19 artificially appears more contagious, more prevalent, etc. than the seasonal flu.
I further argue that even mortality rates are inflated by the hype factor. Someone dies today of severe flu symptoms, the test is applied and it gets chalked up to COVID-19, if indeed there is COVID_19 present, if the test is accurate, etc. With the seasonal flu, someone gets a severe case, goes to the hospital eventually and succumbs to pneumonia or other secondary conditions and it is those secondary conditions that are noted as the cause of death; not the flu.
BTW, I work in actuarial for a major healthcare insurance company. I’m not just creating my opinion from youtube videos; doesn’t mean I’m 100% correct – or even 10% correct – and my observations and questions are sincere as you appear to have expertise in a similar area as well.
Sent From member of the Stanford hospital board. This is their feedback for now on Corona virus: The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can one know if he/she is infected? By the time they have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% Fibrosis and it’s too late.
Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning. Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, etc., it proves there is no Fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicates no infection. In critical time, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air.
Serious excellent advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why? Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid will kill all the virus. If you don’t drink enough water more regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and into the lungs. That’s very dangerous. Please send and share this with family and friends. Take care everyone and may the world recover from this Coronavirus soon.
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT – CORONAVIRUS
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours – so if you come into contact with any metal surface – wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but – a lot can happen during that time – you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can’t emphasis enough – drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you’ll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you’re drowning. It’s imperative you then seek immediate attention
Which is scarier: (1) The corona virus; (2) people feeling they have no control over their own lives; (3) people refusing to accept they do have control over their own lives.
“They survived the coronavirus. Then they tested positive again. Why?”
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-13/china-japan-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive
For those popup averse(I am):
http://archive.is/9SMYm
Short answer: “Dunno”
Fred — 32 million people have died from AIDS worldwide since 1981, which is what I meant when I wrote “32 million people are missing.” The American death toll was 770,000. Because Coronavirus, like AIDS, is a worldwide event, I thought my words would be understood that way.
Larry Kart
I’d like to thank JJackson for his expert commentary.
I’m at the ground ero Seattle but can’t add to the science of this, but will warn the rest of you that hording has become a problem and has moved beyond wipes and hand sanitizers to foodstuffs, particularly frozen foods. Be warned!
Also to be warned are those hording toilet paper: You clowns have rendered every shelf TP bare in every store in Seattle. I’m not going to address the wisdom or otherwise of this. However, know that while it’s highly unlikely you will successfully out-run me while toting two hay-bales of Costco TP, dropping one of them will render the question moot.
“Can you explain to me (sincerely asked) how, for example, S. Korea was able to have ubiquitous tests for this specific virus not only developed, but also distributed within a month or two (at the most) from the first cases being reported in China?
The SoKos are either super scientists and industrialists in a super organized society, or there is some degree of BS associated with the tests.”
Eric,
The article linked below may provide an answer to your question.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-testing-intl-hnk/index.html
My speculation is that our CDC & FDA got caught in their bureaucratic turf game and didn’t allow our molecular biology companies to produce the test kits and have them shipped to our medical diagnostic lab companies with a nationwide footprint like Labcorp and Quest. I was unimpressed with CDC director Redfield during his testimony to Congress. He came across to me as the perfect bureaucrat skilled at that game and not the type of person who can think out of the box or act outside the red tape.
It appears that the public health authorities in Taiwan, HK, Singapore and South Korea didn’t want to take any chances and reacted swiftly and aggressively. Taiwan has only had 50 cases and 1 death despite the volume of traffic with China.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-taiwan-case-study-rapid-response-containment-2020-3
Here’s wiki on testing:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
In the psychosis that is taking hold in countries around the world, there is something I do not understand.
Cruise ships carry a high density population of mostly elderly individuals, with crew and passengers living at very close quarters, in a confined space, with no possibility of sterile isolation.
This is your typical nightmare scenario for the propagation of a virus.
If this virus is so contagious and lethal, I am at a loss to explain the lack of dead on said cruise ships. In theory, by now, we should have dozens if not hundreds of dead from those ships. By my last count however, 6 elderly passengers from the Diamond Princess passed away of complications related to Covid19 and, so far, 1 former passenger from the Grand Princess has succumbed.
Few infections and, certainly, no othere fatalities have been reported from all cruise ships. In total, we are talking about some 9000 people between passengers and crew on 3 ships where Covid19 had been detected.
What am I missing?
About China being on the downside of the infection curve… no shit – the entire country went on a war footing once Xi realized coverup was not possible and his enemies will use any failure against him. He could not afford to lose. China threw everything it had against it, including sucking in global resource stockpiles (tried to buy a N95 mask or even any PPE lately ?).
The idea that the west can match China’s containment measures or even resources at this point (China not only consumed much of the global stockpiles of PPE, but also manufactures most of it! also ventilators !) to follow them down the same curve is laughable. The only option is to fight “smarter” like SKorea, Singapore or Taiwan.
Even this is unlikely as the west squandered the 1-2 months lead time it had – complacent citizens thought “it couldn’t happen here” and so their governments did nothing. Once this was shattered by Italy, the panic started. Contrast this with SKorea, Singapore, Taiwan which had had prior outbreaks of SARS/MERS and so their govs did not waste time and instituted measures quickly – their citizens also did not need to be convinced/educated of the need for social distancing and hand cleanliness. This speed is what saved them. The west no longer has this luxury.
And lastly – healthcare workers dont really fear the CFR – they have dealt with worse (Ebola etc). What gives healthcare workers nightmares about Covid19 is the combination of infectiousness (infectious BEFORE symptoms – so stealth !) and 20% hospitalisation rate (from china data and now confirmed by italian doctors). No western country has enough beds for this once exponential growth gets underway ! Combine this with the lack of PPE (healthcare workers have to ration/reuse N95 masks and PPE) which over time means healthcare workers themselves become infected and have to self quarantine. Once out of beds/healthcare workers your CFR will jump. This is what naive comparisons of CFR numbers misses; CFR numbers from diamond princess and skorea only hold if all who want care get it. This is now not happening in Italy. Not to mention once beds are all filled by CoVid19 patients, no beds will be available for others who need it and so you also have increased deaths from other illnesses.
If anything, if the west treated this outbreak seriously (more fear/hysteria may have driven earlier action) from the onset, it could hope for a Taiwan/SKorea/Singapore outcome. Now ? Maybe the summer can come to the rescue and Trump may be proven right. Maybe he feels lucky ?
But as I am in Australia I have no such luxury – we are now going into winter and so our healthcare sector faces load from both covid19 and our normal flu. I hope we can cope.
Eric
The Korean story is interesting in that most of their cases from a religious sect which was ostarcised and had a young following. The age distribution has caused a lot of 20 to 30 year old cases and the sect kept records of all its members making contact tracing in a fairly tight community a lot simpler. The PCR testing is covered in the post I have linked to several time before, and will add again below. Post #1 gives a brief description of PCR testing and in post #10 I look at it again in a little more detail in light of the problems experienced with tests in the US. One point I did not explain is why the US system decreed that the CDC should be the developer of the test when hundreds of labs could also develop a test, which is what is happening now. The problem with everyone using their own tests is the collated data is no-longer directly comparable as different test may vary in sensitivity. I have added a second link which looks at the Korean experience in more detail.
re your second post. The CAR is how many infections occur in a population divided by population size. ‘Crude’ in front of any epi number meaning it is based on what ever data is available at that time. So at present that is about 135k case in 7.8 billion people. Without serology testing we do not know how many more sub-clinical cases there are even if it doubles the total it still means 0.00% of us have had it. In a population with no immunity exposed to any new pathogen heard immunity will not slow spread noticeably until at least 10% of the population have antibodies. (again post #1 was written in anticipation of most of the questions in these threads).
TTG
The first link, again, this time I look at what China did in post 10. In post #11 I was asked your question by an American member and replied as best I could in post #12.
Serge
A bit of recidivism is not uncommon as the virus titers fall, during recovery, below the test sensitivity threshold and then rise a bit to a detectable level. The second possibility is reinfection prior to antibody build up (or poor antibody response). The WHO is actively trying to establish which explanation is responsible for the recurrences found.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/jjackson-s-workshop/826486-covid-ncov-preliminary-thoughts-jjackson-personal-opinion
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/
Jack,
I’m sorry, but that article doesn’t inspire confidence, for me at least. I’m not trying to be difficult. I’d like to think that such a test exists, is accurate and that human ingenuity could create it so quickly.
First off, the article is CNN. Hey, maybe they got something right for once. The article goes on to say that a super computer with AI designed a test that reacts to coronavirus DNA and it did so, in three weeks, simply based on what had been released about the virus’ DNA without even having a sample of virus material. That doesn’t cut it for me. Call me a Luddite if you will, but I am skeptical of the power of AI. AI is only as good as the humans that programmed it. I’ve yet to see any that is truly independently intelligent.
Somehow, a reagent that turns a certain color when the presence of covid-19 DNA is present in a sample was also developed in the three week time frame. That, by itself is a miracle of bio-engineering if true. Lots of miracles and tech magic involved in this story. Claims of miracles and magic make me suspicious.
As I said, there are a number of flu causing coronaviruses out there (and some non-flu causing strains). I don’t much, really nothing, about genetics. I do know something about how the real world tends to work – and I know how science is supposed to work. I need to see proof that the test isn’t reacting to the similar DNA of other coronaviruses.
IMO, super computers and AI or not, three weeks is not enough time to understand how a test might be producing false positives and false negatives with regards to the specific virus in question; covid-19.
Corona quote of the year: I am panicking because other people are panicking. (Overheard in a Costco TP line)
JJackson,
Thanks for the links. I missed your previous posting of them. Sorry about that.
The links help a little. A lot of the information you’re conveying in them is lost on me because I don’t understand genetics anymore than the next guy.
Please allow me to ask you directly, given what you say in the link, do you really believe that the S. Koreans could develop – without any sample material – a drive through test that accurately (acceptable/normal industry standard level of false positives/negatives) – identifies this new virus in three weeks?
And – what about Guidoamm’s question? IMO, it’s a good one. How does this virus compare to other outbreaks on cruise ships in terms of severity of symptoms, mortality, how contagious it is, etc?
Sharyl Attkisson took the time to profile those to date who have died, associated with the corona virus – not just “elderly” but primarily compromised by underlying health conditions, along with advanced birthdays.
What me worry? No, not really even though I am old enough to have been raised on MAD magazines. https://sharylattkisson.com/2020/03/profile-of-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-to-date-elderly-sick/
The reasons for old people, pre-old people with certain prematurely-aged organ systems, immuno-compromised people, immuno-suppressed people, and non-old people already-with debilitating or weakening chronic disease conditions to be concerned about not contacting this virus are evident by now.
The reason for non-old non-compromised non-sick people to be concerned about not contacting this virus is so that they don’t contract the virus and potentially become typhoid Mary corona-spreaders who would facilitate getting the virus to those who might sicken and die. We should all practice safe-airgapping from eachother, safe thing-touching, steady handwashing and hand-sterilizing, etc.
I work at UM hospital. Our overall employer has set up a clickable link to evolving corona virus information as the U of M understands it to be. Here is the link. ( I am assuming it works).
http://www.med.umich.edu/i/ice/resources/coronavirus.html
Proposed UK measures. Isolation for those over 70
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR3pximu0r_KVP0Um2DGz9rt5C_VkVMlCxcoA8li3PfVYa6wrcOCoQSvvxQ
Eric
As Col. Lang has educated us, we should evaluate the information independent of the source.
Here’s the bottom line. South Korea, Singapore, HK and Taiwan have minimal overall disruption to their societies and economy relative to the US and Europe. There’s a lesson learned there in swift early responses even if it may turn out to be an over-reaction in hindsight.
An important aspect in these types of situations is confidence among the public. Saying it’s just the flu, which very well could be correct and dismissing concerns of the public in this age of instant communications and social media is foolish. When people are concerned the best strategy is to address their concerns directly. It makes sense why people are concerned when they see images from Wuhan and notice the draconian actions there and news of ICUs in Lombardy being swamped.
As far as tests are concerned the US has a large cutting-edge molecular biology industry. The CDC chose not to avail that capability and instead decided to do it on their own while not doing a good job, contributing to fear that the healthcare system was not on top of things. That IMO was classic bureaucratic turf game and a strategic error. While you may question the accuracy or reliability of the South Korean tests, it’s beside the point. The bottom line is it worked to prevent large scale societal and economic disruption in Korea by instilling confidence among the public that active measures were being taken to prevent spread.
I remain sanguine although I’m in the most vulnerable age group and believe this will also blow over. However I believe these disruptions and economic impact was unnecessary and could have been easily mitigated if those entrusted to maintain public confidence in situations like this acted determinedly. Trump, IMO, should have acted the way he’s doing now a month ago. One thing this incident proves is the US is extremely vulnerable as it has shipped overseas it’s industrial capacity including pharmaceuticals. Of course nothing will likely be done as the financial elites who benefited from this continue to dominate the political system. Can we actually ever fight a war with the Chinese communists when likely critical parts of our military supply chain is right there? That vulnerability will be exploited at the most inopportune moment.
Eric
I was not really expecting SST readers to bother with the Virology section the bit on Epidemiology and testing is readable and, if understood, nothing that has happened, or is coming, should be a surprise.
I forgot to cover flu testing which you also asked about. Developed nations all run seasonal flu sentinel system in which a geographically representative selection of GP practices do test everyone with ILI (influenza like illness – a blanket diagnosis for anyone with flu like symptoms). This allows an overview of the circulating strains and how much of the winter ILI is actually flu rather than colds etc. In addition Hospitals are testing anyone who gets a ILI critical care bed. After the flu season is over the excess deaths, over summer levels, is measured and an estimation is made, from the three data sets, of many of those deaths can be attributed to flu.
re the Korean testing it is not a problem for them to have had lots of PCR labs ready to test if they used the protocols provided by China. What I do not know is what they used for the drive-thru testing as RT PCR is not that fast and the machinery is very expensive and needs expert operation. To try and answer your Q I posted a request for information on the Flutrackers Covid discussion thread (much like this thread but it is already over 150,000 posts) asking they post here or let me know. I had a reply from a friend who has emailed the KCDC but we have not had a reply yet. What I have found is at the wiki link Jack provided.
re Jack’s wiki link (which I will re post below). The first thing to note is the table at the top which shows that Italy and Korea have tested 5000 per million of their population where the US has tested 50. Further down you will find a graph show the very low number of CDC tests (blue) and then a massive jump in test per day once other labs were allowed to use their own tests. Below the first table is a smaller one showing which countries have developed their own tests, Korea is not one of them so I assume they used the tried and tested Chinese protocols. In the immunoassay section you will find this “On Feb. 28, 2020, a South Korean company called PCL filed a request to Ministry of Food and Drug Safety of South Korea for their antibody-based detection kit, COVID-19 Ag GICA Rapid. Unlike an RT-PCR-based detection kit, PCL claims that their antibody-based kit could make a diagnosis within 10 min. “. It does not state that is what was used but would be my best guess
re guidoamm’s Q on cruise ships I have linked below a MedRXIV paper looking at this and this is a comment I made.
“Fortunately for the passengers and crew, but unfortunately for calculating the CAR, the index case was identified before the 2nd generation cases showed. This allowed testing and quarantine/social distancing which will have protected many passengers from exposure which in turn will make their 17% estimate low. It does however show that this figure is more than achievable in the world at large. Pick what ever CFR you like and apply it to 17% of your population and that is how many dead you will have. The CAR could be twice this or more. How you manage to spread those deaths over time will determine if your CFR remains a constant, if you exceed your ICU/mechanical ventilator surge limit you must expect every case there was not room for to die – ICU triage by that point is not going to give space to anyone it is unlikely to save or who had a fighting chance without it. In a badly managed wave peak your x ICU beds may have 10x or more patients who meet admission criteria.”
The usual problem on cruise ships is Norovirus which is highly contagious and, while very unpleasant, is not a major killer. The CDC shows 70,000 hospitalisations a year with 800 deaths.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2
One more link. This time to another FluTracker member who also runs a blog and writes beautifully clear posts. He has been at it for a while and this is his blog post #15,094 entitled Ventilator Shortages And Pandemic Triage.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/836916-ventilator-shortages-and-pandemic-triage
Translation: “Flatten the Curve” – voted new buzz words of the year
Spread the threat of the fairly behign “corona” infections long enough to influence Nov 2020 elections.
“Social distanciing” now means shutting everything down to “flatten the curve” of the normal life-cycle of a any typical flu season viral infection, when people pass it around and it gradually mutates and weakens into a non-event..
Bummer, if left to its normal life cycle it would be over in another month or so. Not good enough says the deep state and the Democrats. We need to milk this puppy right up to election day. Make it last until November – “flatten the curve” of its normal distribution and duration.
So close everything down, bring everything to a half force people to b chained only to online news sources at home with no public discussion. Control and capture their hearts and minds and get this cretin Biden elected so we can get our hands back on the public check book.
A twofer – destroy the economy at the same time and blame Trump.
Blogger Ian Welsh has written a post called ” Taking The Coronvirus Seriously”. I feel confident that “coronvirus” was just a typo on his part and he was thinking ” coronavirus”.
Be that as it may, I consider him a serious good-quality layman thinker whose posts are usually worth reading and thinking about.
Almost all this post is about the meaning of coronavirus itself and how we approach it, especially individually unless and until the collective approach becomes sufficient to the level of the problem.
In this post he discusses ” flattening the curve” and how failing to do that led to the spike of deaths in North Italy and how successfully doing that keeps the number of dangerous cases per unit timespan at or under the capacity of hospitals to treat those cases. Treatment can often save lives which would be lost from lack of treatment which would be imposed by more people needing treatment per unit time than available treatment capacity per same unit time.
Paragraphs two and three ( the second and third paragraphs) are critical of the TrumpAdmin’s approach as of the writing of this post. Anyone who doesn’t wanna hear it can give it a miss by simply scrolling past paragraphs number two and three without looking at them. The rest of the paragraphs are apolitically focused on viral affairs and personal-social approaches.
Here is the link.
https://www.ianwelsh.net/taking-the-coronvarius-seriously/
Australia and New Zealand now require 14 day quarantine for all arrivals.
State of Emergency just declared in Victoria, Australia. Expect all other states to do the same today. It extends Government powers during the Coronavirus pandemic.
D – That “Stanford” list is a hoax, full of false information. The linked-to article below is one of many pushbacks:
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/coronavirus-symptoms-stanford-tips-protection-pandemic-advice-a9399621.html
Who the heck, and why, would anybody perpetrate such a thing?
Lawrence,
Recognize the hoax charge about that Stanford list -its immediate appeal was emphasizing how the microbes enter the body – being a respiratory infection and highlighting the importance of the hand to mouth (nose and eyes) to one’s own throat.
That seems to be the missing link in most statements about this corona (or any other flu or cold) URI risk factor – the self-inoculation aspects from one’s own fingers to one’s own body.
Emphasizing hand washing and “hand sanitizers” without the deliberate consciousness of what one touches with those temporarily clean hands is the weakest link of all. For those reasons, I admit I jumped too early when I passed this “hoax” material on.
But I stand by this one aspect of its message, and reject along with you some of the other more hokey claims. Sufficiently chagrined, but continue to take up the charge about other ritual but ultimately meaningless prevention tasks too.
For example: After filling my car with gas today, i monitored how many surfaces I touched after touching the public gas station surfaces. Once home, I then went back and cloroxed all those touched surfaces – there were so many of them.
Car interior, garage knobs, door keys, home door handles and the cupboard cabinets touched to make up the bleach solution. Over looking any one of them, and then touching one’s mouth, nose or eyes, with any lingering public gas station contamination left on them is a reminder we just don’t stop thinking about this once we “wash our hands” or slather on hand sanitizer.
Instead we all need to keep far more emphasis on what we do with our hands – 24/7 – and decontaminate as well as keep our GD little fingers away from our faces. So I confess, I thought that aspect was one of the lessons from this “hoax” article that I did pass on.
As i type now from my impeccably clean keyboard. Wondering if my state governor is serious about home-quarantining all of us over age 65. Every governor wants their time in the spot light too – our-preening their colleagues.
Plus suspecting my state governor may well want to offer his services as the brokered Biden back-up come DNC 2020.
“…get this cretin Biden elected so we can get our hands back on the public check book.”
D
This is how credibility is lost in the partisan lens.
The Dems are not the only ones who spend profligately with the public check book. Arguably the Republicans are even bigger spenders in their use of the common treasury. Republican Reagan tripled the federal government debt during his term. George W added $9 trillion to the national debt with his regime change wars in Afghanistan and Iraq where we remain even today with no national benefit. MAGA Trump is adding a trillion dollars annually to the debt. And that will balloon as he bailout Wall St speculative losses and big business. Socialism for billionaires is what both parties support. But god forbid that the Deplorable gets a $1,000 benefit. That’s heresy. That’s Marxism!
We need a little humor in these unfunny times. So I offer a cartoon.
So these three disease walk into a bar . . . ( link to cartoon)
https://twitter.com/Vaccinologist/status/1237784576363282432/photo/1
Sj: OldMicrobiolgist
That person used to be a prolific commentator at SST until he was banned for, I believe, giving inconsistent information about his background.
He has now popped up at the Unz Review, in particular, writing this piece:
https://www.unz.com/article/was-coronavirus-a-biowarfare-attack-against-china/
Col. Lang observed inconsistencies; I observed inconsistencies in his descriptions of his wife or wives.
One day she was a petite but tough-as-nails Army Colonel commanding some kind of SF/intelligence unit; another day she was something else.
Anybody know more about him or have bee anything to add?