Overview for "hudud hatay," "Borders of Hatay"
SST will now conduct another in the series of war games that have marked our progress toward enlightenment over the years. The goal in such games is to create conditions in which critical and creative thinking can occur with regard to possible or probable futures. The game will be played in three or four turns (TBD). The game will be played in Game Time, not real world time. The Game Time dates and times will be clearly stated and should not be confused with real world times or dates. At the beginning of each turn the control group (pl & TTG) will post a scenario situation for the following turn. The game time Christmas Day situation for the first turn is posted below. Based on that Situation and following Situations, comments are invited that provide the commenters' opinion as to how that Situation would develop over the period of Game Time stated for the turn. The Control Group will judge the worthiness of comments and make decisions as to whether or not they are contributory and should be posted. After a sufficient period of real world time has passed, a new turn scenario will be posted that to some degree reflects the quality of the comments that have been made.
A few cautions for commenters:
1. Do not fight the scenario of the game. The game creates a universe deliberately isolated in time and space from reality. It does that to focus deliberations on a fairly narrow set of possibilities. If you do fight the scenario your comment will not be posted.
2. Do not make comments that reflect real world time rather than game time.
3. Do not make frivolous or obscene comments. If you do, your comments will not be posted and you may be banned from SST.
4. This IS NOT a forecast. It is a probability driven study of one particular scenario. There could easily be others.
"Borders of Hatay" situation as of Christmas Day, 2016.
The Syrian Government stated on Christmas Day that 2017 will be sennat al-nasr, the Year of Victory. By Christmas Day R+6 has re-taken Palmyra with the US led air coalition having operated against IS north of the Palmyra road and R+6 air south of the road as well as in the CAS mode in the immediate area of Palmyra. By Christmas the Tiger Force armor that led the counter-offensive is in the process of being withdrawn from Palmyra for re-fit and rest in the Damascus area. MG Suhail, the Tiger Force commander was interviewed on Christmas Eve in Damascus by SANA and said his men deserved some rest. By Christmas Day the evacuation of east Aleppo is largely complete, a total of around 30,000 having left for jihadiland, and another 100,000 former east Aleppo residents living in government shelters. Relief supplies are beginning to arrive in large quantities. The besieged Shia villages of Kafraya and al-Fu'a a few kilometers north of Idlib City were finally able to send their sick and wounded to Aleppo under the terms of the Aleppo truce. Russia has begun air drops of supplies into these villages. UN observers are in place at Aleppo but the French government, MSM and Brits are still whining about massacres, etc. Turkey continues to provide logistical support to the Nusra connected jihadis through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing into Idlib Province, Syria. The Al-Bab confrontation among the Turks, FSA, the SAA and YPG remains stalemated as does the sadly inept effort of the Iraqi Security forces to re-capture Mosul. The SDF/YPG are still well north of Raqqa and Tabqa, but still capturing villages. Israel continues its more or less open support of IS on the Golan Front. R+6 air continues to strike all over Idlib Province, around Deir al-Zor and in the Palmyra area. There have been a number of assassinations and explosions throughout Idlib province. Speculation abounds as to whether this is the result of continued infighting triggered by the influx of Aleppo rebels in the area or suspected payback strikes by Russian Spetsnaz for the assassination of Ambassador Karlov.
First Turn Requirement.
State your opinion as to what has happened by 2 January, 2017 (Game Time). pl & TTG