Russia launched around 100 missiles and drones against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure today—the largest since the war began—with the clear aim to spread terror, and to also knock out Ukraine’s energy grid. (Ukraine claims that 73 of the missiles were shot down, which may or may not be true.) If anyone wonders why Ukraine is winning the war, it’s because Ukraine knocks out Russia’s logistical hubs and depots, while Russia would rather kill civilians and inconvenience them this winter in the cold. Meanwhile, Ukrainian trains run virtually unimpeded, supplying Ukraine’s war effort on the fronts.
This war has laid bare Russia’s incompetence from top to bottom, and that extends to the effectiveness of their weaponry. The fact that two Russian cruise missiles missed their Ukrainian target and landed in Polish territory isn’t surprising; what is surprising is that it hadn’t happened until now. That two people were killed in the attack raises the stakes.
The two missiles hit 100 kilometers from their presumed intended target of Lviv, so some people are skeptical it was a mistake, but I’d be shocked if Russia was interested in escalating with NATO. They’re already losing the war. The last thing they need is either Poland or NATO engaging. If the target was military, perhaps a supply depot or rail head feeding Western weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, there would be logic to such an attack. They hit a farm. This doesn’t make any sense beyond “oh shit, we missed … by a lot.”
So the big question is: Will Poland invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? And the answer to that is: not likely. Article 4 allows for consultations between the allies, and that is almost assuredly going to happen. They’ll demand an explanation and apology from Russia. The alliance will talk about strengthening its Polish front. Maybe they’ll rush additional air defense units to the border area. But it seems inconceivable that either side is eager to use this mistake to escalate further. At most, NATO might send an “if it happens one more time …” message that will force Russia to avoid further hitting western Ukraine, lest it screw it again. Russia already backed down to Turkish threats on the Black Sea grain deal, so they’re not currently operating from a position of strength.
There is no chance the alliance hasn’t gamed out this possibility already. Now we wait and see what Poland’s and the alliance’s reposes will be.
Comment: Several of you already mentioned this news in comments. There’s still a lot of unanswered questions. I’m sure there’ll be more answers released publicly in the next few hours. Already Poland, all three Baltics and even Hungary are holding high level defense meetings and talking about defending every inch of NATO territory.
My guess is that Russia inadvertently screwed up. They’ve already repeatedly demonstrated their incompetence. Still, there will be a NATO reaction or at least a Polish/front line state reaction. Perhaps there will be a regional air defense umbrella extended over much of Ukraine, Belarus and the Black Sea. I doubt we’ll see a full fledged no fly zone, but I don’t think that’s needed to ensure an eventual Ukrainian victory.
TTG
A lot of twist but very little genius. +3C in Kiev tonight, -5C next Monday.
Hey hey Ayaya – go …. …….. The Putinista is a criminal, justice will be served
Justice will be served?
I’m afraid your gavel is made of plastic, and in China, judge.
so goes the crime… so go the criminals, from/for China, too
One thing out there is the claim that the Polish farm was struck by two s-300 missiles. Meaning they were Ukrainian air defense weapons gone astray. Plausible given Ukraine was reportedly under intense air bombardment at the time. Russia doing this intentionally makes little to no sense to me at this time.
F&L,
Stray Ukrainian S-300s is a possibility, but the Russians have been using their S-300s in the ground attack mode extensively for months. I also doubt this is an intentional Russian attack.
President Biden has been out saying it’s unlikely due to the trajectory that the missiles were Russian. But a NATO responds could be stationing a lot of air defence systems in Poland.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-63593855
… Or giving more air defence systems to Ukraine
Biden doesn’t understand the Polish-Lithuanian fighting spirit and/or their experience with incompetent Russia.
Both will get what they need. I was wondering why Belarus will be under the umbrella too? To prevent use of the country by Russia?
>>>e Russians have been using their S-300s in the ground attack mode extensively for months.
Right. They even launch them from Kyiv against the targets in Kyiv..
https://twitter.com/MichaKobs/status/1593000483375153153
There will be increased pressure to supply Ukraine with weapons that can take out their missile launchers, since they are now only launching terror attacks against civilians. They may have escalated without aiming to and further attacks against civilians will require increased attacks against Russian military targets, no matter where they are.
I agree we are not at Article 5 yet, but we got closer and that would just be another miscalculation in a long line of them by Russia.
TTG…Good Report…Good Take on Events..I Have read the Russias Used Air Launched
x101 and x555missles…Heres a Data Link..
https://www.military-today.com/missles/kh_555.htm
Look at the Photo Trailer tipped over..Tractor undamaged. But…
A russian missle hits a Ukraine Apt…Its on Fire Destroyed…Boy…Are They
pushing this in a Dangerous Way..
JT
JT
-respectfully-
referencing the photo (above) the cab of that tractor looks burnt to a crisp… right rear tire may have a tilt that suggests axle damage. –
Repairs, in the sparse parts environment we have at the moment – might take a while
AS to NATO – Russia/Putin might soon find out they have teeth – they are ‘pushing in a dangerous way’ indeed.
Is this Staged…?..Trailer Already tipped over..?? Why is Debris all over the side of the Trailer and Shed Roof..? What type non flammable Explosive Was Used..Could a Drone have flow that far..?.What Does Crater Size Tell You TTG..?? Its not Like Kaizer Wilhelm is Dead…Or The USS Liberty is Blown up..
JT
jim ticehurst,
Staged? I doubt that. That seems like one hell of a crater for an air defense S-300. I would expect to see lots of shrapnel damage for an AD S-300. I don’t see any shredded tires on the tractor or wagon. It was supposedly two missile strikes. Was it a cruise missile and an S-300? Any of the open source accounts declaring they know for sure what it is are talking out their asses.
some of the burnt metal is probably part of an underground grain storage system intake
https://cultivateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/IMG_8284.jpg
Grain Storage operations have stringent vehicle and site intrusion restrictions due to fire risk
kj
Pretty sure this ‘trailer’ is what is left of a portable grain dryer
The grain dust can easily ignite and cause a secondary explosion
Here is a portable grain dryer with a slightly similar wheel base – most have double wheels nowadays so this may have been a one of a kind DIY a little similar to these two
https://graindryingsolutions.com/images/F76441361.jpg
This one has the width of wheel base
https://www.farmtender.com.au/listing/machinery-equipment/grain-handling–2/20t-agridry-grain-dryer
Gulf of Tonkin anyone?
Probe of defense?
Anywhere near where our
Airborne units are staging?
Makes no sense. I thought
Milley wants negotiations.
Gulf of Tonkin?
It occurred to me. We better hope not. Has someone lost their marbles to that degree? There are so many possible culprits as compared with those days. Your mind can even go to lurid Agent 007 scenarios with dwarfs feeding people to pirhanas in between rum toddies at the Swiss chalet which hides a bunker with a tunnel straight through the Atlantic seabed to a Bahamian lagoon hiding stolen submarines fitted with secret weapons from the Third Reich’s Blueprint for Mars, not to mention Stalin’s plans to reroute the Gulf Stream so as to warm northern Siberia.
Meanwhile in Delaware, Joe Biden pulls the levers which control the secret numbered ping pong balls of the illuminati $590 billion raffle now that the FTX crypto heist distracted everyone from the profits London made leveraging currency futures before and after the pipeline demolitions, Sevastopol drone strikes, Kherson pullout and bridge attacks. This latest with a mere two alleged missiles hitting an obscure farm in a Polish area named Przewodow which Google translate says means “Wired.” Hmm. A beautiful woman appears to give Joe the winning six numbers but before he reads them he swears she whispered: “Joe, preventing a nuclear war by saying they were not fired by Russians is also a way not only to win in 2024, but even live to see that day.” Then he says “wait, what does the big guy get?”
It will go down in history as just one of those curious missile strikes nobody claims responsibility for, landing coincidentally just over the border after three seasons of warfare where nothing like that came close to happening and at seemingly the worst time possible. ” So think nothing of it,” Joe Biden’s spokesperson will say. The money made shorting and leveraging it’s occurrence with the nice kitty compiled off recent calamity wagering will unfortunately not be used for anything good. Maybe, if fortune smiles, England can buy a sewage treatment plant from China, Nancy Pelosi can afford retirement finally and Vlad will get back a nice chunk of his missing $350 billion if he plays along and retires in return for free English lessons from William Burns, Head of the CIA and former US Ambassador to the Russian Federation. But we’ll never know officially. With Joe Biden’s secret Illuminati crypto and nuclear war brinkmanship weekly raffle, the possibilities are mind boggling.
Steve+G,
Naw. Just one or more of the three nations who actually have mutual defense treaties getting desperate to get more funds (you might want to look at who is funding all of the Ukrainian government operations, it isn’t their taxpayers) and materiel.
Heartless of people to deny the crown funds with which to pay off Prince Andrew’s lawyers and accusers who claimed that in fact he does perspire. So what were they to do? Defrauding with crypto tokens is in its early days. Did they buy a pharmaceutical company and raise the price of lifesaving medicine from 40 cents per week to $123,000 per month? No, they did not.
Timing Timing Timing….First 6 Feet of Snow expected in New York Soon..Accu Weather Com…plus. Diesl Reserves lowest since 1951…Especially East Coast..Ck at..
https://oilprice.com
Plus Which Russian minister is now hanging out With Xi at the G20..Energy
JT
They may invoke Article 4. But there will be no Article 5 at least until the event is thoroughly investigated.
Leith,
I don’t think they’ll go the formal Article 4 route until this is thoroughly investigated. Have to sort the truth from the knee-jerk hysteria, propaganda and deliberate disinformation
Even if NATO invokes Article 5, it can be answered by a nastygram, not military involvement. Most NATO countries have less than a week of armaments. Do you actually think that they will engage Russia? France has three days, Germany two.
You may be spending too much time listening to bloggers (foreign agents ?) like A. Martyanov. It is their favourite premise that the US and NATO in general are unable to fight Russia, who he sees as peer power (!).
NATO has been sending Ukraine some equipment and providing intelligence and training etc, but all that had not really strained NATO’s combined industrial and economic potential.
If article 5 is invoked, this can dramatically change, and not in Russia’s favour.
Look borko, you as US citizen may be eager to fight Russia on European soil, Europeans except the Eastern Newcomers may not be quite as eager as you are.
The US should have marched all the way to Moscow after fighting Hitler at the end of WWII? Missed that chance then?
We don’t need Russian agents to feel that way. There was never a way to compromise with Russia and/or Putin? Because really he always was the latest Hitler incarnate since he followed drunken Yeltsin?
Leander
Have you ever experienced communism ?
Have you experienced war, economic collapse, hyperinflation, lack of basic necessities, electricity, food ?
Have you ever ran for shelter because of air raids, worried about yourself and your family, everything you have worked for being bombed and destroyed ?
I have. I’m eastern European and this invasion and terror campaign against civilian infrastructure, that Russia is currently engaged in, is wrong.
France has three days, Germany two … and people complained when Pres Trump told them to pay up.
A more recent example than Winged Hussars https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gzG-4hJjEM The defeat of the Swedes at Poltava.
TTG,
The Russians aren’t launching S-300s at ground targets in Ukraine. Those ground attacks are failed intercepts, like this one. It happened in again in Kiev yesterday, an apartment building went up in flames.
The Ukrainians aren’t being honest it. I guess it’s a question of maintaining civic morale.
– Eliot
Eliot,
The Russians modified some of their S-300s with the addition of GPS guidance to use in the ground attack role. Two notable attacks were a barrage of 12 S-300 missiles striking Mykolaiv in July and 16 fired at Zaporizhzhia in September. The later attack killed at least 30. Not even the Russians deny this. It’s the tankies and Putin supporters who are being dishonest about it.
The missile strike in Poland was not one of these ground attack S-300s. Nor, apparently, was it a Russian cruise missile. It was a Ukrainian S-300 fired in the air defense mode at attacking Russian cruise missiles. It was tracked by NATO aircraft flying near the Polish border. Now I see only reports of one missile striking Polish territory rather than two.
To your puzzle regarding size of craters – would colliding with a mine field account for that?
F&L,
Seems unlikely given the presence of farm machinery and the two hapless farmers, but I am no expert in crater analysis. The S-300 has a 300 pound warhead so a good part of that is explosive material.
TTG,
This errant missle(s) begs the question of what happens to all the Russian ones whose guidance system is jammed, or are damaged in flight and don’t reach their designated target. How many could wind up hitting a different building entirely?
Fred,
They strike somewhere else. Hopefully they hit a field, forest or parking lot. Don’t know if any of the jammed or damaged missiles ended up hitting apartment buildings or how many of those missiles were deliberately targeted to hit apartment buildings.
But Fred, isn’t the very essence of what, where, how, who in fact – that air defenses are required against Russian missiles attacking civilians in the first place… Anything shot down includes the criminal missile in flight and all the rounds expended to take it off its course. Don’t blame the victim for defending him/her self.
cobo,
please don’t insult me for pointing out the obvious about collateral damage. Poland can take retalatory action against the Ukrainians for their two dead citizens if they wish, the later are certainly doing it to the Russians, or they could talk to each other about some kind of compensatory action instead. The Ukrainians and Russians talk to each other about ending the war? That’s for others to suggest, not I.
I’m sorry to have so easily insulted you, Fred. But what about criminally launched weapons onto another’s sovereign territory is collateral damage. The crime isn’t absolved when the victim defends. The above stands.
I’m not military smart enough to get into the size of craters or torn rubber treads by the road. My mind is simple. Russia can invade Ukraine, kill its soldiers and civilians, destroy cities, and now again today 11/17, send more missiles to bomb Ukraine to a world w/o electricity. Russia is doing this b/c they have failed on the ground so up the air game and destroy Ukraine from afar. What is Ukraine to do? The Russian air game is BEGGING for jets to be “loaned” from the Poles, Slovaks, and Czechs. Air Defense Systems will come from the Germans and peut’etre Monsieur Macron? Or will he travel to Moscow to keep “lines of communication open” while Ukraine recedes to the dark ages. Russia is upping the ante big time.
Regardless of whether the missiles were Ukrainian or Russian, those Polish farmers would still be alive if it weren’t for Putin’s “Special Military Operation…oh yeah, let’s not forget about the 100Ks of Ukrainians who have been killed, maimed, and scarred for life because of the “SMO.”
It’s time for Nato and the US to empty out the war reserves in Europe and arm the Ukrainians to the teeth to end this. At this point, the Russians have lost so much material it will be 20 years before the Red Army can threaten Nato conventionally. Is anybody in Nato worried about T-62s rumbling through the Suwalki Gap anytime soon?
it will be 20 years before the Red Army can threaten
interesting.
Good point, end their capacity now
MJ,
The ‘Red Army’ ceased to exits a few decades ago. The retalatory/first strike capabilities are all in the hands of the Russian Federation. As is the shattered aura of military competence of their conventional forces.
Fulda yeah, Suwalki err no.
Given the number of cruise missiles fired to date, that some have navigation failures would not surprise me in the least.
Thanks for your knowledge here TTG…..Yes It was Tracked and ID,d Biden knew immediately..Looks like the Impact was at Low Angle..That Blew over the Trailer..
But left Questions for Armatures like Me.. Grateful for a Site like this,,,with Experts..Tested and Trained..like you..Pat and others..
So…Where is all The Funny Money coming From..? Something like The Offshore Party with Sigmon FRAUD and His Bit Coins..For the Dems..or another Fraud..
Jeffrey Epstein..and His Lollipop Island..
Oh If Ukraine Blew up the Farm in Poland..Isnt that Still Am Article 5..?
Everone over there should just STOP…and let People Heal and Recover..This has
been a Pathetic Excuse for a Holy War..Without Excuses..by deserves Accountability.
JT
Even if it was a Russian missile (it wasn’t) that still wouldn’t amount to something under Article 5 of the NATO Charter.
That describes a collective response to an “armed attack” on a member state.
An errant missile doesn’t amount to an “armed attack”, since there was no intent to cause damage to Poland.
The correct response is the one that has actually been offered up by Zelensky: if it turns out to be our missile then Ukraine will apologize.
No doubt reparations will follow.
But regardless of the culprit, the remedy is the same: apologize to Poland and pay for the damage and the loss of life.
Oops, it looks like the twisted one jumped in with both feet on this now discredited narrative. Believing everything Zelensky says can be a mistake.