“Russia has just one tank factory churning out 20 tanks a month” – TTG

UralVagonZavod, Russia’s main tank factory, in October 2022. SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images

In the 1940s the Soviet Union was able to produce 1,000 tanks a month. Today, Russia can produce just 20, with a single factory struggling to keep pace with outsized demand caused by the war in Ukraine, according to The Economist. The British publication reported that Russia now has just one tank factory, UralVagonZavod, a massive 1930s-built industrial complex in eastern Russia.

It may be one of the largest tank manufacturers in the world, with Fortune estimating that it has 30,000 employees, but each month it is only able to produce tanks in the double digits, The Economist said, citing liberal Russian media outlet Novaya Gazeta. That’s nowhere near demand: one Western official told the publication that demand is outstripping supply by a factor of 10. Russia is losing around 150 tanks a month in Ukraine, according to an analysis by open source intelligence platform Oryx. It has lost 1,779 tanks since February 2022, Oryx reported.

Tank production is harder than it was in the 1940s, when the Soviet Union was churning out vehicles, largely because modern-day tanks are more complex to build and far more sophisticated, according to The Economist. But other factors are also involved. A shortage of parts, particularly semiconductors, has hampered Russian production, The Economist reported. And UralVagonZavod hasn’t been properly modernized because of financial mismanagement and significant debts, it said. As a result, Russia is becoming increasingly reliant on restoring older tanks, which it has in the thousands in storage.

UralVagonZavod is refurbishing about eight old tanks a month, with three other repair plants in Russia rebuilding another 17 or so monthly, The Economist said. Two more plants are due to come online in the coming months, per the media outlet. Russia may soon be able to resurrect around 90 tanks each month, in addition to the 20 new ones being built, but even this would fail to match its estimated losses.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production-by-factor-of-10-report-2023

Comment: This is the first specific information I’ve seen on current Russian defense production. It’s no secret that all sides are realizing that established logistical norms for modern conventional are woefully inadequate. Everyone is scrambling for artillery shells, rockets and missiles not to mention replacement artillery tubes. We now see that Russian defense production is but a shadow of what it was in the 1940s and 1950s. This is what’s led to Russian recent reliance on dismounted infantry assaults rather than the armored assaults that characterized Soviet and Russian doctrine for decades. 

Ukraine can’t produce new tanks after their one tank production facility was hit early in the war. But they’re doing a good job of refurbishing damaged and captured tanks as is the Czech Republic, Poland and others. This capture, repair and refurbishing has kept the Ukrainian tank force as strong as it was at the beginning of this war even without Leopards, Abrams and Challengers. Russia can’t do that.  

The rest of the West is not in great shape either. Lockheed was producing only 48 HIMARS at the beginning of 2022. They quickly ramped up production to 60 and will some be up to 96 per year. It will be years before everyone who wants them gets them. Poland alone wanted up to 500 of them. And then there’s the rockets for the HIMARS. Lockheed now can produce 9,000 a year. I don’t know if other countries produce or are allowed to produced rockets for the HIMARS. The South Koreans produce the K239 Chunmoo MLRS. Poland is buying them in addition to the HIMARS and intends to produce the rockets for the Chunmoo in Poland. This does point out an advantage for Ukraine and the West. Western countries can pool their defense production. That’s the beauty of coalitions.

In short, Russia’s massive stockpile of old tanks won’t do them any good if they can’t refurbish them in a timely manner and they can’t produce new ones even close to the rate they’re losing them. In my opinion, they are sucking bilge water.

TTG

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheeds-himars-plant-gearing-up-meet-demand-after-ukraine-success-2023-02-28/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K239_Chunmoo

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77 Responses to “Russia has just one tank factory churning out 20 tanks a month” – TTG

  1. blue peacock says:

    TTG

    Lockheed’s and other western production will ramp up when they receive sufficient orders. Capex is a function of demand & the ROI. It maybe high time for the DOD to funnel some of their $800 billion annual budget to produce more existing armaments instead of on the many boondoggles. The value the US military gets on their gargantuan spend is rather poor. The PLA is outproducing with a tenth of the DOD budget. But….the siphoning in the beltway is so large and some of that gets recycled to the campaign coffers of the bought & paid pols. Corruption may not be as bad as in Putin’s oligarchy but our oligarchy too are raking it in without delivering.

    • TTG says:

      blue peacock,

      Lockheed now has plenty of foreign orders approved by the USG along with DoD orders approved in the defense budget. Those DoD orders are included in the $800 million annual budget. I agree with you on the corruption. It’s always been there. Even Washington was plagued by it. Citizens United just put it on steroids.

  2. Stefan says:

    This blog somehow turned from a nice discussion that was a pleasure to read into a Russia-bashing cheap copy-paste commentary sourced from mainstream media. No wonder some of the best authors left.

    A note – I’m a Bulgarian and in no way a Russian supporter (they tried to destroy my home country several times, with pan-Slavic policies, invasion in 1916, invasion and occupation in 1945-47, communism, etc, not talking about middle ages where they once destroyed us, and are now trying to undermine our Cyrillic alphabet invention and Orthodox Christianity that our guys brought there, etc), but I’m trying to have a real view on what’s going on so I read both sides of the story. I know Russian, studied in school as a kid.

    Here’s a link to a Russian discussion forum about tank production – google translate it, it is much more revealing than the businessinsider article, moreover some of the commenters seem to have inside knowledge (“At the start of the eighties, just workshop No 130 produced a company of tanks per day, and there were two similar mothballed workshops”)

    https://topwar.ru/211245-amerikanskij-zhurnal-chto-predprimet-rossijskoe-rukovodstvo-s-uchetom-togo-chto-u-vs-rf-cherez-dva-tri-goda-zakonchatsja-tanki.html

    Another comment that seems credible to me after checking the sources:

    “1. According to the article (below) – Russia produced 360 new tanks per year:
    https://dzen.ru/a/Yvv2CcD1xhp31myo
    2. Taking into account the transition of enterprises from 2 to 3 shifts:
    360*(3/2) = 540 new tanks per year.
    3. According to the article above – Russia can restore more
    600 old tanks a year.
    Total: 640+600 = 1240 tanks per year (or 103 tanks per month).

    According to the source below, at the beginning of the NMD, Russia had 2927 tanks:
    https://militarist-info.ru/2022/05/21/tank-army-russia-2022-god/

    That is, with the loss of 1600 tanks per year – after 5 years, Russia will have:
    2927+1240*5-1600*5 = 1127 tanks, with 600*5=3000 (less than 1/3 of storage).

    More precisely, this will be enough for 8 years, 1 month and 17 days of SVO, provided that half of the tanks can be restored from storage.”

    Even if we consider the numbers are inflated, it still shows the need for the West to prepare for a very different scenario.

    • Sam says:

      Stefan,

      The only thing that matters is how the Russian army performs on the battlefield. If as you say they have much more armaments and definitely a much larger combat force, why haven’t they subdued and defeated the much smaller and less equipped Ukrainian army after a year of battle?

      • JamesT says:

        Sam

        Ukraine has mobilized all men between 16 and 60 and they are being equipped by all of NATO. Also Ukraine is defending well prepared defensive positions – my understanding is that you require 3 times as many men to attack as to defend.

        I think that the only people who come out of this looking good is the US military. The US has no near peer competitors – it is way ahead of everyone else in the world in military capability.

      • Jake says:

        The problem seems to be that people in the West, layman as well as military professionals, insist that Russia wants to conquer and subdue Ukraine. It doesn’t. Jeffrey Sachs tweeted official Ukrainian casualty figures as broadcasted by CNN, apparently. It listed close to 260.000 people who were killed, or died, close to 250.000 maimed, over 80.000 deserted or missing, and a little under 30.000 captured. Millions fled the country, and a majority of those have no intention to go back. The BBC and a Russian language publication payed by the West, Medusa, did research on the actual numbers of Russians killed in action, and they came back with figures corroborating the official Russian casualty rates, with a little over 14.000 killed, while they suggested the actual number might be forty percent higher, so somewhere around 20.000.

        NATO and the ‘Collective West’ are about expanding territory. Russia, and China, claim they want to preserve their culture and national identity, which is a ‘peoples based’ goal. Our leaders do not give a hoot about the people, or principles, as long as the people do as they are told, and cheer as more territory is added to the EU or NATO. NATO will fly ‘Rainbow’ flags, contract Muslim extremists, and call ‘MMA-White Supremacists’ partizans as long as they do NATO’s bidding. They tend to underscore their disregard for the people by feeding us ‘talking points’, keeping us distracted, and promoting people with clear mental disabilities to lead the pack, saying it stands for our ‘inclusivity’, as they cull the herd at the same time, to ‘Save the Planet’.

        Why people go along with all of this nonsense is beyond me. I readily admit that I cannot corroborate those numbers listed above, nor am I in a position to offer accurate data on the production of armament and ammunition. I’m limiting myself to listening what our leaders, and what the Russians and Chinese are saying, and analysing the hard facts as they come in over time. I limited my participation in debates on this blog after it resulted in ‘back and forth’, and the occasional ad hominem responses, and added an ‘In English’ extension to my own Dutch language blog to say what I have to say. Not in direct competition with this website, since I lack the technical expertise and detailed knowledge about military strategy and tactics offered by Colonel Lang, TTG and others.

        It actually pains me to see that this website drifted into promoting ‘analysis’ offered by the Kagans (Nuland) through their ‘Studies of War’, and various other openly biased outlets. No, the Russians are not out of ammunition, not out of missiles, not out of tanks, not out of men and women willing to fight for Russian interests, and Putin is still popular in the country, in China, and the ‘Global South’, while the Russian economy is doing fine, even according to the IMF. Believing it is different doesn’t change the outcome. It only serves the interests of those people who want to cull the herd, offering more ‘meat’ to the ‘meat grinder’. Why?

        • TTG says:

          Jake,

          I’m not sure if you hate the US and the West or are just enamored by Russia and China. Your website may be more nuanced, but this comment is plain sad.

          • Jake says:

            TTG, I do not hate a living soul on the face of the earth, let alone groups of people as you suggest. And I’m not enamored with people within the confines of national boundaries. My brain doesn’t work that way. I paid attention to what Putin said from the day he addressed the safety conference in Munich in 2007, which was ‘straight talk’ avant la lettre. He has been clear as a bell ever since. And he is clear as a bell today. The fog in our collective brain has been produced by our own leadership.

            He sought execution of the Minsk Accords through peaceful means. And warned against attempts to invade the DPR and LPR, and that Crimea was Russian territory, as agreed in said Accords, and confirmed by popular vote after the 2014 coup Nuland organized, installing Yatsenyuk to suppress political parties who could spoil fake elections to be held later that year to cement this ‘Regime Change’ operation.

            Various scholars in the West confirm that this is a correct reading of events. Documentaries have been by the BBC and others which describe how it was done in minute detail.

            It has been confirmed by Porochenko, Merkel, Hollande and Zelensky that ‘Minsk’ was a lie, meant to give NATO time to prepare Ukraine for this proxy war. NATO assumed that their strategy based on static fortifications to claim as many Russian lives as possible when Russia would ‘storm’ them, and leaving ‘Stay Behind’ saboteurs to wreck havoc ‘Al Qaeda’-style in occupied Ukraine, combined with ‘Sanctions from Hell’, would mean the end of Putin. They miscalculated spectacularly.

            This artillery war, supported by missile strikes and drones, is giving the Russians a kill rate of over ten to one, while NATO is already struggling to find armament and ammunition. This is not me assuming that it is so. This is confirmed by a wide range of sources, among which are American volunteers fighting for NATO/Ukraine against the Russians.

            Personally I’m not offended if you do not accept my reading of the situation. Whether you do, or don’t, it won’t change the outcome in a strategical sense. It will only increase the number of dead people, and destroyed wealth, and reduce our chances in the West to survive this stupid war.

          • TTG says:

            Jake,

            The Minsk Accords called for Ukraine to resume full control of her borders. Russia never allowed that. Putin wasn’t any more serious about the Minsk Accords than Merkel or Holland. Minsk was indeed a lie. It was a truce at best.

            There have been several legislative and presidential elections in Ukraine after Yatsenyuk was appointed Prime Minister in February 2014 and elected in December 2014 parliamentary elections. Yatsenyuk and his party lost in subsequent nationwide elections. We’re a long way from any coup, Nuland instigated or not.

            And yes, many in the West miscalculated about the course of this war. The Ukrainian military was not supposed to be able to stand up to the might of the Russian military. Ukrainian resistance was supposed to quickly devolve into a strategy of national resistance after a quick defeat of the Ukrainian Army. But the Ukrainian Army proved much better than many expected and the Russian Army proved much less competent and capable than many expected.

            You’re right about the West struggling to provide Ukraine with needed ammunition. Russia is also struggling, turning to Iran, North Korea and maybe China to fill her ammunition shortfalls. But you’re notion that Russia is killing Ukrainians at a rate of 10:1 is absurd. But still, you offer cogent arguments for your positions, so your comments serve a purpose in our discussions. I believe I’m upholding our host’s, Colonel Lang’s, standard that Turcopolier should never devolve into an echo chamber.

          • Jake says:

            TTG, I appreciate the opportunity to respond in opposition to what you believe to be correct. Yet you fail to address my assessment that the Russians are ‘grinding the Ukrainian forces down’ as general Surovikin said he would. And that western sources which are not bought and paid for by the neocons/Warparty, appear to corroborate that it is exactly what they are doing.

            Yatsenyuk was never meant to last. He got that position to cull the ‘Russian’ opposition in the Rada, so elections would be between two tastes of Tom&Jerry ice cream.

            The Minsk Accords did indeed call for a restoration of the borders, excluding Crimea, after a restructuring of Ukraine into a Federal System, with a fair amount of autonomy for the regions (Oblasts), especially in an economic and cultural sense. Obviously this would have provided the East and South, where all the people are who lean towards Russia, as confirmed before 2014 by polls held in preparation to Nuland’s coup, an opportunity to develop even closer ties with Russia without the need for a military conflict. The piss poor, ‘Bandera’-country would have been left struggling and begging for subsidies from Brussels and Washington, while being infused with Hunter Biden’s bio labs offering a limited possibility to earn a few Pennie’s as Guinea pigs. And yes, I do understand that I’m exaggerating, but the pattern has to be familiar if you studied Ukraine in the run up to 2014.

            If the Minsk Accords would have been implemented to the letter, the East and South would have contributed nicely to the BRI plan, with the government in Kiev left with no other option than to study there bellybutton and organize Gay Pride festivals and MMA-tournaments,

            Therefore, as always with NATO, forget about all the slogans and think ‘Raw Power’. Oil. Minerals. Fertile lands. And slaves and soldiers for the Financial Capitalist overlords draining the wealth from the country to live the good life in the West.

          • TTG says:

            Jake,

            Sure Russia is grinding away at the Ukrainian forces, but the Ukrainians are grinding down Russian units at a greater rate. Ukraine is forming 4 to 6 new armored brigades along with several mech brigades with NATO equipment. Ukraine had 13 brigades at the beginning of the war plus all the Territorial Defense Force brigades. Neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians have suffered WWII level casualties. They have a long way to go before it gets that bad.

            Yatsenyuk held governmental positions prior to his becoming Prime Minister and did so for years after he was Prime Minister, as did many other Ukrainian politicians. Yanukovych’s Party of Regions was a legal party until last year. They ran in elections even in 2019. The Verkhovna Rada long sought closer relations with the EU and expected Yanukovych to sign the EU agreement in 2013. He refused that agreement and arranged an agreement with Moscow without Verkhovna Rada consultation or approval. That’s what led to the Maidan Revolution and his fleeing Ukraine.

          • Jake says:

            TTG, I’ll have to leave it it at that. The history is important, obviously. The ‘cleansing’ of the political system, prosecution and even killing of pro-Russian politicians and journalists in Ukraine after 2014 is a matter of public record. As is the fact that the killing of protesters as well as government forces on the ‘Maidan’ was done by hired gunmen firing from a building occupied by the protesters, to set the stage for the planned coup.

            Your statement that the Ukrainian forces are grinding down the Russian forces even harder cannot be confirmed by researchers in the employ of the BBC and the pro-Ukrainain Medusa, who looked into it. They came back with a little over 14.000 KIA, and suggested it might be forty percent higher. The numbers listed in professor Sach’s Tweet are far higher. That drove my statement of one versus well over ten, and various sources appear to confirm this is correct.

            I’m aware of a planned Ukrainian Spring-offensive, but I also noted that the equipement general Zalushny said he needed is not available, and that various countries said openly that they are simply unable to supply the ammunition Ukraine is using. The Spanish newspaper El Pais and the Financial Times, as well as various other western publications, confirmed that Ukraine is running out of everything. But we’ll have to wait and see. My fear is that pretty soon other countries are required to provide manpower and declare war with Russia openly, after Samantha Power let the cat out of the bag that the US is at war with Russia, but that it is leaving the it to the Ukrainians to die, for the moment. Zelensky said in an interview that the US would have to send their sons and daughters too, because he is short of manpower as well as equipment and ammunition. I’ll leave it at that. We’ll see.

          • Bill Roche says:

            Jake’s made comment on 2014, The Maiden, Putin’s “straight talk” in Munich, Yatsenyuk, Minsk, (forgot Istanbul), Nuland, Kagan, and restructuring Ukraine into a federal system (hey here’s a thought, why not restructure Russia into a more federal system?) but not a word about 1991. That summer Ukrainians announced to the world (including Russia) that they were a sovereign nation. The history of Russian oppression goes before that. Ukrainians have tried to break free of Russia since 1900. Jake d/n mention any of that history. He mentions that “Bandera piss poor country” but d/n wish to acknowledge that Bandera was as much against the commies (many of whom were Jews who brought Holodomore) as the Nazis. There were Bandera type outfits operating in Finland, the Baltics, Slovakia, and Armenia. Should one assume that all these countries are also in need of some “NAZI scrubbing” by the Russian Army. In the summer of ’91, b/f all of Jake’s references, I knew there would be war b/t Ukraine and Russia. So here’s more straight talk, Russia invaded Ukraine. Under no imaginable circumstance could Ukraine threaten Russia’s existence. Russia’s war is to reestablish her Russian Empire. If only Ukrainians would keep their place all would be well in Eastern Europe. It must be difficult for Russophiles to accept that its hegemony over the rest of eastern Europe is neither needed nor wanted. More straight talk? The threat to Russian existence is to Russian Empire. Such a renewed eastern Empire threatens peace in all Europe – as did the Austrian, French, British, German, and Ottoman empires of 1914. Should Russia reconquer Ukraine they will “win” the unmitigated hatred of 44MM people for the next hundred years, NATO combat forces moved right up to the Baltic border(s), will have to pay for an occupying army on their western border to monitor Finland, Sweden, Poland, Slovakia, and the Baltics. Friendship w/Hungry, Romania, and Bulgaria w/b tenuous at best. I think the term is Pyric Victory. But there will be a Russian Empire once again. Go Vlady go!

    • Whitewall says:

      “No wonder some of the best authors left”.
      Any names come to mind? If among the best, why leave?

    • Eliot says:

      Stefan,

      The production figures quoted by the Economist don’t make sense.

      But that’s the story of Western coverage at this point, there’s a significant gap between what’s happening on the ground, what people who are there are saying, and what’s been reported in the media. I assume what we’re looking at is a coordinated campaign, like the one we ran during the leadup to the invasion of Iraq.

      Russia does have problems, the most serious of which, up until mobilization, was manpower. They invaded with just 80k men. And that’s probably as many as they could muster. Their regular army was far too small to fight a war like this, and per Russian law, they can’t use conscripts outside of Russia either, unless they declare war, which they do not want to do. And from there you can go down the list, is their airforce incapable of performing SEAD missions? Perhaps?

      The one issue I don’t think they do have though, is industrial production. Judging from the reports that from soldiers in the field, the Russians have maintained the same lopsided advantage in heavy weapons they’ve had since the start of the war. And you see a lot of newly manufactured equipment making its way to the front. I think these stories have more to do with the serious deficits that the AFU is facing, and the need to manage morale. It is very convenient to say, it may be bad for us, but I can assure it’s just bad for the Russians. How many times have the Russians been on the verge of running out of missiles? They’re really just trying to manage morale with these claims.

      I also don’t trust Oryx, they like to double count photos, and they have trouble correctly identifying destroyed weapon systems that both the Ukrainians and the Russians use. They’re also tied to Bellingcat, and that’s the big red flag. They’re not independent researchers, they’re yet another British information operation.

      – Eliot

    • Bill Roche says:

      Stefan this blog has taken a couple of variations over time. As SST and Turcopolier it has changed. I think some of prior correspondents had serious differences with our host Col. Pat Lang (ret). But if you contribute long enough and you’ll see everyone gets in their “two cents”. Personally, I can’t understand why everyone doesn’t agree w/me. What interests me about you is your declaration that you are Bulgarian. Bulgaria has had a long history w/Russia, some happy, some not. I realize you are just one in what 7MM Bulgarians but can you comment on how Bulgarians see the war in Ukraine. Do Bulgarians believe they are immune to Russian fielty. Do they believe that Ukraine s/b subdued? Thanks.

    • Chris says:

      I have had the same thoughts about this blog lately. I have followed this site for 8 years and found it mostly balanced and well sourced.

      Now it is totally anti Russian pro western sources lacking any real analysis of Russian capabilities and progress. For example Bakhmut is about to fall after being encircled I haven’t seen any commentary on that battle at all lately…it’s just Russia bashing yet they are clearly winning.

      There have been reports that some Ukrainian brigades have lost 80% of manpower and that the life expectancy of UAF replacements is mere hours or maybe a few days at most. Yet all we keep hearing is hundreds of Russians mown down in “human wave attacks” on a “strategically unimportant town” that is strangely defended by some of the best brigades UAF has.

      Hopefully we will see more balanced commentary in future instead of this pro Ukraine/NATO hubris that seems to now permeate on this blog.

      P.S. I’m not pro Russian. Ad hominem “pro Russian” dismissals are a lazy counter argument.

      • TTG says:

        Chris,

        I’ve addressed Bakhmut in two recent posts.

        “This map puts the ongoing battle for Bakhmut in its proper perspective. Contrary to what many are saying, the taking Bakhmut has value to Russia and makes operational sense. It would be a necessary step to taking on the truly strategic objective of taking the fortress of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. That has been a Russian objective since last summer when they still held Izium and Lyman. The plan then was an attack south from Izium and north from Bakhmut or maybe even a wider envelopment of the heavily fortified Slovyansk/Kramatorsk area.”

        https://turcopolier.com/jomini-of-the-west-on-bakhmut-ttg/

        “Of the three efforts, the Bakhmut offensive has at least yielded some success. They captured Soledar and have also advanced south of Bakhmut. They may eventually take Bakhmut or force the Ukrainians to give it up at a cost of many months of heavy fighting and tens of thousands of Putin’s troops, mercenaries and convicts. Taking Bakhmut would not be meaningless. It is now a necessary step to trying to take Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the real objective in Donbas.”

        https://turcopolier.com/divining-russias-main-effort-in-2023-ttg/

        I did see a good analysis of Russian tactical evolution from the BTG to the assault group based on lessons learned in the so far six month long battle for Bakhmut. I plan to address that before long. But If you’re waiting for me to sing the praises of an invading, atrocity committing Russian Army, you’ll be waiting a long time. This has been and will continue to be a fiasco for Moscow.

        • Bill Roche says:

          Even I, someone who is non military, has the ability to read b/t the lines. I know the future for Bakhmut is measured in days. I haven’t been deceived. My only hope for Ukraine (expressed I know ad nauseum) is that the Russian people wake up and say killing 1000s and 1000s of their children to impose Russian Empire on Ukraine is wrong. The Russian people have not done that. I guess they still like the idea of being the big Slav who are more powerful b/c they can hurt some one smaller (come to think of it, I never liked my aunt Helen. She always had to be the center of every family gathering. Was it genetic?). Absent the refutation of Putin all NATO can do is make Ukraine a very difficult pill to swallow. Perhaps some of Ukraine (Halychnia?) can be saved? Perhaps the Balts and Poland will be preserved? Perhaps the scales will fall from the eyes of the rest of Europe … here see tyranny in all its ugliness. But correspondents on this blog have not fooled me. The outlook for Ukraine is dim.

  3. Peter Williams says:

    I call BS on “The Economist” article as its source is Novaya Gazeta, an anti-Russian rag that was forced to relocate to Europe. I’ve toured UVZ and it’s nowhere near as primitive as un-named sources indicate. It also went to triple shifts, seven days a week in March last year. Management had to take into account that a large portion of their workforce is Muslim of varying degrees of religousity, and according to my wife’s cousins (they are Tatarka) they achieved that.

    • TTG says:

      PW,

      The descriptions of UVZ assembly halls are from videos. The articles quote a workforce of 30,000 working 3 shifts 7 days a week. That’s not disputed. They’re still not producing enough.

  4. Fourth and Long says:

    TTG,
    Reports are of a serious strike on an air force base at Yeysk with additional fires in the city itself. March 1. It’s quite near the border approximately 150 km from Mariopol. They (Ru) don’t seem to be releasing details yet, while Ukraine is crowing about it on YTube.
    ————
    Yeysk (Russian: Ейск) is a port and a resort town in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, situated on the shore of the Taganrog Gulf of the Sea of Azov. The town is built primarily on the Yeysk Spit, which separates the Yeya River from the Sea of Azov.

  5. Babeltuap says:

    Cheap Chinese drones are the way to go. Russia is already getting most of the parts from China. Tanks are old school. Way to expensive and exposed to guided targeting. NATO should be spooling up drones not tanks but they are not really trying to win so there’s that element as well. If they wanted to win they would have armed Ukraine to the tilt with drones. Lots and lots of drones. Also, dirt cheap dumb shells fired at random. No defense against that combo.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Correct IMO. Problem is – corruption. Tanks make more money, I’m fairly sure, for some Oligarch geezers. That and living in the past. Jethro Tull had a great song about that. Strelkov took to calling his nibs “the schoolboy” recently (but hilariously repented, see his 12 points on Telegram (but not if excessive laughter puts you at risk). Schoolboy from 1957 would be more accurate.

      The Times says Blinken and Lavrov met on the sidelines of some gathering yesterday – at Blinken’s request. Meanwhile Xi is telling Lukashenko “listen, we used to have this technique..”

      Jethro Tull – Living in the Past
      https://youtu.be/m__wmsIn99E

      • Whitewall says:

        F&L,
        I knew that if anyone could conjure up a tune from the past it would be you! Haven’t heard that tune or them in ages. Like the rest of us, JT are just old men if still living.

  6. Leith says:

    At least 130 of Putin’s tanks lost at the Battle of Vuhledar. Terrible tactics, atrocious combined arms coordination, piss poor leadership. Why?

    “The Great Vuhledar Turkey Shoot will long be remembered.” Hat tip to the @oldwarrior.

    But will the SV, Russia’s Ground Forces, review lessons learned to adapt and improve? That’s debatable.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Leith,
      Not sure if you know but there’s a school of thought that says the Ru Armed forces command know this can’t go anywhere and thus are waiting on the sidelines. Remember, Shoigu the Minister of Defense, did NOT want to do the SMO. Neither, if you watched the famous Feb 22 / 2022 dressing down, did most of the intel people especially the head of foreign espionage. Also remember that article in Russian you, me and Barbara Ann discussed at length which had been written pre-invasion by a retired GRU or KGB four star and hero of the Pristina airport confrontation with US Army Gen Wesley Clark. This was a man from the era when they still knew what it was like to do things more or less correctly. His piece was adamantly against doing this thing for a large number of very good reasons. Now ask yourself: “What are the odds that a KGB or GRU Four Star General, AND Shoigu AND Head of espionage, are the only motherhubbards in the Officer corps of the RF military and intel apparatus who think the same as they do? TTG, for good reason, likes to illustrate the degree to which corruption and cronyism has debilitated the fighting potentials of the Ru military. In my opinion he overlooks this element as above, probably out of excessive good manners, but I don’t know.

      • Leith says:

        F&L –

        I’ve forgotten the name of that Pristina airport general. Can you refresh my 80-year-old synapses?

        And where is Barbara Ann lately? I miss her insight even tho I did not always agree with her point.

        • Fourth and Long says:

          Don’t know on Barbara Ann who is also missed by me. On the General – I was trying to find the article with his letter two days ago unsuccessfully. Can’t recall his name at the moment either. He gave his address at a meeting of retired intelligence and military officers. I’m no spring chicken myself but you’ve got me beat. At least 2 Russian sites printed his address and at least one English language site (aha, I think it was antiwar dot com) printed an English translation. The Ru sites may have included aif dot ru.

          • LeaNder says:

            There is a link to the letter. Could that have been it?:
            http://www.justsecurity.org/80149/retired-russian-generals-criticize-putin-over-ukraine-renew-call-for-his-resignation

            The chairman of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, retired General-Colonel Leonid Ivashov, published an appeal on his organization’s website on Jan. 31 to “the President and Citizens of the Russian Federation.” The sharply worded missive, issued on behalf of the organization, ends with the words: “We, Russia’s officers, demand that the President of the Russian Federation reject the criminal policy of provoking a war in which Russia would be alone against the united forces of the West… and retire.”

            Ivashov, 78, was a leading military hardliner in the 1990s. He was one of the instigators of the famous standoff at Pristina Airport in 1999, when Russian troops sought to block the entry of NATO peacekeepers into Kosovo. In 2001, newly appointed Russian President Vladimir Putin, consolidating his power, retired this top general at the early age of 57.

          • Leith says:

            LeaNder plus Fourth and Long –

            Thnks for the feedback.

            Ivashov’s Wiki entry is interesting. Apparently he claimed publicly in 2016 “that Russia’s engagement in the Syrian conflict was critical to prevent construction of Qatar-Turkey pipeline, which would be catastrophic for Gazprom and, in turn, for the budget of the Russian Federation.”

        • LeaNder says:

          The hero was Jackson too, but yes both really vs Clark.

          Viktor Zavarzin
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Zavarzin

          In December 2022 the EU sanctioned Viktor Zavarzin in relation to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[5

          **********
          https://balkaninsight.com/2023/03/02/hague-court-publishes-details-of-hashim-thacis-alleged-war-crimes/

          • Fourth and Long says:

            Thanks, LeaNder. I didn’t see that you found it and posted below to Leith last night

  7. KjHeart says:

    “Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. ‘ Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

    Wouldn’t it be something if this Russia/UKR war ended up being down to tanks (who has the most) and kleptocracies (who has the worst)?

    kj

    The WaPo said that China (read CCP) has not yet supplied the Russian War effort with arms? Dunno if that is true or not.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/26/russia-ukraine-china-arms/

    The ‘Legacy Media” have put out a series of recent articles about China’s (the CCP’s) support to Russia. I recall Xi, early on, making a statement of support to Putin so it is not surprising.

  8. KjHeart says:

    I should edit that comment to say ‘Who has the most tanks that run”

    kj

  9. Yeah, Right says:

    “Russia has just one tank factory churning out 20 tanks a month”

    So, 20 more than the USA, Britain, Germany and France produce in a month.

    • TTG says:

      Yeah, Right,

      Good point, but not quite accurate. The US has just one plant producing 10 or 11 Abrams a month. South Korea produces only about that number of their new K2 Black Panther. Poland will also be producing the K2. Turkiye began production of a K2 equivalent. Germany, France, Poland and the Czech Republic are upgrading existing tanks as is the US. Britain is neither producing nor upgrading tanks indigenously. Germany is doing that for them.

      • Yeah, Right says:

        “The US has just one plant producing 10 or 11 Abrams a month.”

        Those are not new Abrams, TTG. You know that.
        They are reconditioned older hulls.

        There is no such thing as a “new Abrams”, and hasn’t been for over a decade.

        Just as there are no such things as a “new Challenger”, or a “new Leopard 2”, or a “new Leclerc”.

        Credt where credit is due: Russia is the only European power that still makes new tanks.

        And I have to say that I am amused that your source for the claim that Russia is only making 20 tanks a month is the same source that confidently stated only a few months ago that this same plant is sitting idle and gathering cobwebs.

        So, no, doesn’t seem to be a reliable source of solid intel.

        • TTG says:

          Yeah, Right,

          True. Only South Korea and Turkiye along with Russia are producing brand new tank hulls as far as I know. Poland will soon be producing their own K2s. Most are taking older hulls and building new models from those hulls like the Abrams M1A2 SepV3 and M1A2 SepV4. Those upgrades represent a design philosophy of building on success. They are not refurbished. They are rebuilt. That’s okay as long as you don’t plan on engaging in a long conventional war like in Ukraine. We may have to rethink that philosophy once all the Abrams, Challenger, Leopard and Leclerc chassis have been upgraded. As it stands, only the Polish K2s will add numbers to the NATO tank fleet.

          That Russian plant was temporarily idled last March due to lack of sanctioned Western parts and components. It was the Ukrainian MOD and the Kyiv Independent who reported that. As far as I know, everyone picked up the story from there.

          • Peter Williams says:

            And the sources, the Ukrainian MOD and the Kyiv Independent are totally unreliable. UVZ was not idled last March, in fact they introduced triple shifts and seven days a week working. Accepting information from Ukrainian sources are why this war is so mis-reported in Western MSM.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            “That Russian plant was temporarily idled last March due to lack of sanctioned Western parts and components.”

            Riiiiiiiight.

            “It was the Ukrainian MOD and the Kyiv Independent who reported that.”

            You appear to repeat yourself, repeat yourself.

            “As far as I know, everyone picked up the story from there.”

            So there is not a single, unbiased, independent confirmation for the claim that this tank plant was idle for so much as a single solitary day.

            The idea that the UralVagonZavod has now gone to 24/7 production running three shifts a day – and it has, nobody disputes this – yet it has been unable to increase production beyond 20 tanks a month is…. preposterous.

            Utterly and completely preposterous.

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            There’s not a single, unbiased, independent confirmation that UVZ has increased production beyond 20 tanks a month plus the refurbished tanks from storage.

          • Peter Hug says:

            If the AbramsX moves forward (and I hope it does), at some point the Lima plant will begin actually making new tanks again. As a resident of NW OH, I would be a fan.

          • Yeah, Right says:

            It is an uncontested truth that the tank plant is now running three shifts a day, 24/7

            You KNOW that to be true, TTG.
            Not even the Ukrainian MoD disputes this.

            Which leaves you arguing a preposterous proposition: the tank plant is running more shifts, but isn’t producing more tanks.

            I mean, honestly, if that were true then why are they running more shifts?

          • TTG says:

            Yeah, Right,

            The plant is now also refurbishing old tanks that have been deteriorating in the Russian weather for decades. Even the T-64 requires replacement parts that probably haven’t been produced for many years. That task alone would require another shift.

            Tank production is no longer what it was in those WWII news reels. “In December 2021 the Russian state conglomerate Rostec stated that serial production had commenced, with “more than 40 Armata tanks anticipated to be delivered to Russian troops after 2023.” T-90 production was stopped in order to prepare for the T-14. Just going back to producing those 20 or so new tanks, probably T-90s, a month is a feat.

        • Fred says:

          Yeah Right,

          They would run 3 shifts to produce the maximum volume and park the completed tanks needing some component until it could be inserted. Just like all the automotive suppliers did when they had ship shortages or a defect needing repair before it were salable.

          If the Russians had all the cruise missles they said they did, and they were as accurate as they say they, they they would blow up the plant about 5:30am one day. Of course being as badly led as they have been some wag on their staff would probably just target individual tanks in the parking lot.

          • Eliot says:

            TTG,

            They’re still working on T-14 prototypes. There’s footage from the factory floor showing one mixed in with other tanks. Footage last week also showed some of the Armata platform support vehicles being sent to the front as well. I assume for testing.

            – Eliot

  10. walrus says:

    ……..and Kanban is the worst sort of production control for wartime.

    It’s time to dust off and reprint the manuals and tables for statistical process control. I burned all mine during the last but one house moving.

    • Peter Hug says:

      I’m not a fan of JIT generally. I pushed back on that at a company I worked at in the early 2000s – and got a certain amount of grief over that, until one of our suppliers declared force majeur because of a fire at their plant and we happened to have enough stock of the raw material on hand to last until they got themselves up and running again.

      It’s a balance, of course, and true art lies in figuring out what needs to have reserve stocks and what you can rely on JIT for. That’s where all the fun is, right?

    • Leith says:

      Even for peacetime. Unless of course for Japanese manufacturers within their interlocked Keiretsu systems.

  11. Babeltuap says:

    Nobody is winning with tanks. Have to have bodies on the ground to hold the ground. Tanks do not hold ground. Tank are also a severe liability if the other side has more bodies. Tanks need maintenance and fuel. When they have to lay down the bodies can start tagging them with rockets,,,,meh. We will all find this out thought together. Tanks are worthless in attrition warfare. Better go get bodies. I say enact the US draft. I think it would be great for the country. Really unite us since everyone is so pro Ukraine.

    • TTG says:

      Babeltuap,

      I agree tanks without infantry and artillery will not win. Russia found that out when they launched their BTGs into Ukraine without sufficient infantry. They crewed their BMPs and BTRs, but often had no infantry in the back. But tanks are far from worthless, even in attrition warfare. They provide mobile, protected firepower to the infantry. Combined arms is what can break the grip of attrition warfare and turn it into maneuver warfare.

    • cobo says:

      Thank you, Babeltuap. Everyone, “everyone,” hates it, but I support universal conscription for many reasons, not just for the fight in Ukraine. It means nothing to me, really, because I really don’t care anymore.

  12. Fourth and Long says:

    A view contrary to many here and elsewhere – the Meaney article. My opinion? Everyone here absolutely must read Seymour Hersh’s 3rd installment on his substack “Does It Take a War?” which I think is free. He’s saying something profound about the president we have. And there’s heady stuff for “Debbie Does Dallas” enthusiasts. He recalls discussions with a distinguished professor of history who spoke at length with JFK not long after the famous meeting in Germany which led to the missile crisis over Cuba.

    https://open.substack.com/pub/seymourhersh/p/does-it-take-a-war?r=6efg&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

    The US is Over It’s Head in Ukraine..
    Thomas Meaney.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/opinion/ukraine-aid-united-states-nato.html
    The greatest blunder President Vladimir Putin may have made so far in Ukraine is giving the West the impression that Russia could lose the war. The early Russian strike on Kyiv stumbled and failed. The Russian behemoth seemed not nearly as formidable as it had been made out to be. The war suddenly appeared as a face-off between a mass of disenchanted Russian incompetents and supercharged, savvy Ukrainian patriots.

    Such expectations naturally ratcheted up Ukrainian war aims. President Volodymyr Zelensky was once a member of the peace-deal camp in Ukraine. “Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it,” he declared one month into the conflict. Now he calls for complete victory: the reconquering of every inch of Russian-occupied territory, including Crimea. Polls indicate that Ukrainians will settle for nothing less. As battles rage across Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine’s leaders and some of their Western backers are already dreaming of Nuremberg-style trials of Mr. Putin and his inner circle in Moscow.

    The trouble is that Ukraine has only one surefire way of accomplishing this feat in the near term: direct NATO involvement in the war. Only the full, Desert Storm style of deployment of NATO and U.S. troops and weaponry could bring about a comprehensive Ukrainian victory in a short period of time. (Never mind that such a deployment would most likely shorten the odds of one of the grimmer prospects of the war: The more Russia loses, the more it is likely to resort to nuclear weapons.)
    (Continues at link).

  13. Fourth and Long says:

    Leith,
    I’m in pretty bad shape but finally tracked it down:

    http://www.ooc.su/news/obrashhenie_obshherossijskogo_oficerskogo_sobranija_k_prezidentu_i_grazhdanam_rossijskoj_federacii/2022-01-31-79-0-1
    ———-
    Ivashov is the name. Found it by a simple search which hit this article in which it was linked:
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-crisis-putin-military-opposition.html

    It’s water under the bridge now. You really should read the Kotkin interview with Remnick of the newyorker. He hints at some really dark stuff or at least that’s my reading. Seems to be Hersh’s too, who obviously read this interview though he didn’t mention it.

  14. Leith says:

    Back 80 plus years ago, it was skilled Ukrainian engineers & workers from Kharkiv’s KhMDB that turned an old, rundown railcar plant into the UralVagonZavod tank manufacturing complex.

    Kharkiv in the Ukraine was where the T-34 was designed and developed. Ukrainians started production and built hundreds of T-34s in 1940, a year prior to Hitler’s Operation Barbarossa. Ukrainians built the diesel engine. They constructed the tracks, roadwheels and coil springs etc and assembled them into its Christie suspension system. They forged the turret. They cast and/or rolled the armor plates and welded them to the hull. They prefabricated damn near everything for the T-34 except the 76mm gun, and they did the final assembly to turn it into a battle tank.

    All of those skilled engineers and laborers along with machinery and stock were evacuated to the east. They are the ones that manned the factory floors in the east, built ~84,000 T-34s, made the many improvements to that tank, and made UralVagonZavod into a powerhouse.

    It could be said that one of the reasons UralVagonZavod does so poorly now is that the Ukrainians are no longer running the place.

    • Peter Williams says:

      Kharkov was a Russian city and the tanks designers were ethnic Russians. To call the engineers and labourers transferred east, Ukrainians is a joke. Soviets yes, but Ukrainians no. Ethnic Ukrainians were good at running the Politburo, not so much factories, just look at how the Ukraine went from an industrial giant into a ransacked country.

      • Leith says:

        Peter W –

        Russian speakers for sure, thanks to the Tsar’s prohibition on any language other than Russian. But outside of a small smattering of Muscovites like Koshkin and Morozov, those engineers on the design team in Kharkiv were ethnic Ukrainian. Ditto for the workers. They did have an ethnic Russian general as a figurehead in charge along with lots of NKVD watchers to keep them in line.

        Politburo? Of the seven founding members, only three had been born in Ukraine: Trotsky, Zinoviev & Sokolnikov. All three were murdered by Stalin. All three had been close with Lenin. All three had lived for decades in Russia itself and had been key participants in the October Revolution.

      • Bill Roche says:

        PW thanks for using the Russian appellation Kharkov. Won’t ukrainians ever learn that they “belong” to Russia.

        • Peter Williams says:

          Bill it was Kharkov for over 350 years taking its name from its legendary founder Kharko. It didn’t become part of the Ukraine until 1922 and remained Russian speaking.

        • Leith says:

          Peter W –

          Kharkiv was founded by Ukrainian Cossacks seeking safety from Tatars, Polish-Lithuanians, and Muskovites. They emigrated from the right bank west of the Dnipro River under the leadership of Ivan Kryvoshlyk or Krivozhluk. The area around Kharkiv at the time was a sparsely settled region of the Cossack Hetmanate. Your Kharko, also rumored to be named Karkach, whose earlier settlement there had been abandoned was also a Ukrainian Cossack.

    • wiz says:

      The Russian reputation on this site has gone from regarding them as 10 feet tall to some incompetent bunch not even being able to hold a screwdriver. Apparently, Ukraine and the Ukrainians did all the work while the no good Russians only oppressed them and starved them to death.

      Here’s one example of Ukrainian engineering skills.

      https://www.total-croatia-news.com/item/12187-new-details-surface-about-the-croatian-mig-21-refurbishment-affair

      • Whitewall says:

        You’re right about the current vertically challenged view of Russians today. No doubt the Russian can hold a screwdriver with the best of ’em if he has a pint of vodka in the other hand.

      • TTG says:

        wiz,

        The Russian military reputation has gone to hell among many of us due to their performance in Ukraine compared to their performance in Syria. It’s night and day. In Syria they economically rebuilt the SAA around Syrian strengths and capabilities. They enabled the SAA to defeat an ISIS takeover of Syria. Their work with reconciliation centers was brilliant. In short, the Russian “nation building” in Syria was far more effective and efficient than the US nation building in Afghanistan and Iraq. With that example, I and others tended to believe the rest of the Russian military had that same level of competency. The invasion of Ukraine proved that belief wrong.

        It also appears we learned some lessons on rebuilding a military force. We spent the last seven years rebuilding the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It worked. Prior to this, the Ukrainian military was utterly corrupt, demoralized and being sold off for personal profit. They’ve come a long way very quickly. On the other hand, the corruption and demoralization of the wider Russian military and defense industry was hidden by Russian propaganda and hype along with the demonstrated success in Syria.

        A final point is that both Ukrainians and Russians are inheritors of the doggedness and toughness displayed by the Red Army in WWII. The Russians forgot this applies to the Ukrainians and paid the price.

        • wiz says:

          TTG

          I agree with everything you said. It is now obvious that the Russian military while capable enough to pull off a smaller intervention like Syria against an assortment of jihadis and “moderate” rebels, has a lot of problems when faced with a determined and capable opponent. Especially on this scale. And yes, the Ukrainian army has come a long way in just a few years and all that.

          This is not my main gripe however. It is how article after article, various commenters, some of which I’ve learned to respect, seem eager to take away every important Russian contribution. Night Witches, Soviet space program, T-34 etc. It seems in every case, the Ukrainians have been instrumental to success and the Russians are just a sideshow. All the peoples of the former USSR are incredibly tenacious, smart and resourceful.

          • Leith says:

            Wiz –

            I’ll take the rap for the comments on the Night Witches, Soviet space program and T-34. My point was not to denigrate the Russian people. The essence of those comments was that many of the accomplishments of the Soviet Union were not solely due to Putin’s fantasy of Russian exceptionalism.

            I agree with you 100% that “the peoples of the former USSR are incredibly tenacious, smart and resourceful”. All of those peoples – from all 14 Republics and from all 100 or so separate ethnic groups contributed – despite Kremlin repression.

          • wiz says:

            Leith

            I’m glad to learn that it was not your intention to denigrate the Russians.
            Every nation goes through darker periods but also has much to be proud of.
            We should not try to take their accomplishments away or try to dehumanize them. That never ends well.

      • Fourth and Long says:

        wiz,
        I have great sympathy for the Russians, in fact love for a large number of them which has increased over the years as the internet developed and YouTube became so popular which enabled me to get a better and better look at them. However they are led by an aging and not so smart leadership, and hugely unethical particularly at the very top. They are there not due to insight, ingenuity or brilliance particularly at anything – they are there due to coercive ability. They are certainly not unique in that. At root every political system is ruled by the segment of the population that is able to wield deadly force over the many. In other words kill, beat, exile and imprison the masses of people.

        Try watching the last few minutes of Mr Ex US Marine Corps”Intelligence Officer” and see if you can stop laughing or crying, depending. Especially the awesome revelation that the Russians have an “Immortal battalion” that marches every year in memory of their WW2 losses. I don’t mean to make light of that tradition at all. I mean to point out the absurdity of citing that with the emphasis he does in response to his interviewer’s inquiring about exactly why is it that the Russians are going to win?

        Putin – this is a global conflict – Scott Ritter
        https://www.youtube.com/live/b6gY2eaKiME?feature=share

        Now further – ask yourself what effect it has on – Germans, Ukrainians, Poles, Baltic States, the US public, the US congress, the UK and the defense establishments of those places – to say OVER and OVER and OVER again, PUBLICLY on YouTube (meaning reaching everyone Everywhere on Earth) that The RUSSIANS Are GOING TO WIN!!! and I can prove it and HERE’S WHY!!

        Not just anyone, mind you, a military officer of experience who even lived over there. Take your time. Take more. Go for a brief walk, whatever. Walk the dog, get the paper, check the post. Fix another pot of coffee or tea, or roll another fat spliff.

        Do you think it makes the west inclined to stop sending arms? Do you think it makes the Ukrainians more inclined to surrender? Do you think it makes the scales (of delusion) fall from the eyes of Russian patriots who have forgotten in their fervor and love that they are led by nitwits and additionally live in a country decades behind the technological prowess of their opponents?

        No. It tells a very large subset of the people who oppose Russia to double down even harder, send more arms, and quickly. Because because because because because? Of the wonderful things the Wizard of Oz does? No. Because they think an EXPERT is likely CORRECT AND they DON’T WANT TO LOSE.

        Who is he working for? And his interviewer who pushes this stuff? I don’t mean to suggest actual bribery, only that people like this are not as smart as they think, they are carried away by emotions and the attention that human egos need for nourishment.

        Ritter and so many others like him making a very good case for the Enemies of Russia, not Russia, whether they know it or not.

        • wiz says:

          Fourth and Long

          Sometimes I tune into judge Napolitano’s interviews with Ritter and McGregor to see if there is some new info, but there never is.
          It’s the same old story they’ve been repeating since the beginning of this war.
          I don’t know if Napolitano is trolling them by displaying Ukrainian colors at the beginning of the videos but they seem to have convinced him that the Russian victory is a done deal.

          I’m guessing most average people have no idea who Scott Ritter is. Or Col. McGregor, Judge Napolitano, the guys from Duran, Martyanov etc.

          Those in power, probably have much better sources of intel than to rely on the likes of them.
          The fact that S. Ritter is a convicted sex offender does not help his reputation.

          So, if they are not influencing the general public and are not influencing the decision makers, who are they working for ?
          Well, IMO they are working for themselves. I put them in the same category as snake oil salesmen, or economic “experts” that always keep predicting an imminent economic calamity.
          They are performers, playing for their audience in order to fill their egos and bank accounts.

          Here’s one such expert, advertising himself and boosting his ego:

          https://sonar21.com/my-life-as-a-talking-head-previous-media-appearances/

          • Fourth and Long says:

            wiz,
            Thx for that link. Retrospectives of LJ. I checked out a few. Whew. I had no clue at all.

            You’ve just helped me make my point better than I ever suspected possible so thanks again. You’ve nailed the coffin on it. Visualize – a “former” CIA agent, when war with Russia breaks out in Ukraine, hosts a channel which says, every single day for months: Russia is actually, really WINNING ! WINNING! And is even UNDEFEATABLE!

            Gather ye up all the email addresses of commenters supporting Russia -1

            But even better

            Encourage the forest creatures that their team of other-forest creatures are winning against the other-other forest creatures. And therefore full speed ahead, oh countrymen of the CIA’s main opponent (where LJ was employed), yes, full speed, just like you might expect a deception agency to do to its enemy when it’s all planned out long in advance.

          • wiz says:

            Fourth and Long

            you believe LJ’s blog and guest appearances in various podcast are just an elaborate scheme
            to get email addresses from unsuspecting commenters ? I don’t know.
            In this day and age who leaves their real email and IPs on public forums, especially when such
            controversial topics are concerned? At the very least you put yourself at risk of getting a ton of Spam and if you are unlucky you might get unnecessary hustle.
            I don’t know the guy but it seems to me LJ is actually quite passionate about this topic.
            I remember him being equally passionate about vaccination.

          • TTG says:

            wiz,

            Larry is sincere as well as passionate.

          • wiz says:

            TTG

            Yes, that is what I was trying to say.
            I think he believes in what he preaches and is not a part of some elaborate scheme to collect people’s personal info.
            As Snowden told the whole world, there are much better ways of doing that.
            As pro Russian blogs go, LJ’s is not bad but his temperament gets in the way of accomplishing what the Colonel and you have been able to do with Turcopolier.
            Not turning it into an echo chamber.

  15. Fred says:

    Reports from India are that both sides are blowing up bridges in and near Bahkmut.
    https://www.easternherald.com/2023/03/03/ukrainian-armed-forces-blow-up-bridges-in-artemovsk-before-retreating/

  16. p s c says:

    “Russia has just one tank factory churning out …”

    When I was a teen growing up in northern Delaware we had 2 American auto factories and E I Du Pont de Nemours that employed thousands of people from all classes of our populace. Executives with Ivy league pedigrees and floor sweepers that were high school drop-outs worked in the same places, although residing in far different neighborhoods.

    The GM, Chrysler and DuPont factories are long gone.

    Vladimir Putin did not terminate these jobs that paid a decent living with pensions and health care.

    My enemies are not in Moscow, Peking, or Tehran.

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