“Russia hits base in Ukraine in new wave of strikes, Zelenskiy praises Patriots”

President Volodymyr Zelensky stands beside a downed drone last October

KYIV, May 29 (Reuters) – Russia said on Monday its military hit Ukrainian air bases in overnight strikes and Ukrainian forces shelled industrial facilities inside Russia as both sides sought the upper hand ahead of what Kyiv hopes will be a decisive counter-offensive.

In a rare acknowledgement of damage to a military “target”, Ukraine said that work was under way to restore a runway and that five aircraft were taken out of service in the western region of Khmelnitskiy, though it did not name the sites. A military airfield was sited in the region before the war. “At the moment, work is continuing to contain fires in storage facilities for fuel and lubricants and munitions,” the Khmelnitskiy regional governor’s office said. Russian state-owned news agency RIA cited the defence ministry as saying more than one air base had been hit. There was no confirmation from Ukraine of damage to other air bases.

The Ukrainian capital came under attack for the 16th time this month after a second successive night of bombardment. But officials said most of the drones and missiles fired overnight had been shot down and no targets were hit in the morning. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy praised U.S.-supplied Patriot anti-missile defences. “When Patriots in the hands of Ukrainians ensure a 100% interception rate of any Russian missile, terror will be defeated,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address. The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said that all 11 missiles used in the daytime attacks had been destroyed. But it made no mention of the Patriot systems.

Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s air force, suggested the Patriot was behind the latest results against incoming Iskander ballistic missiles. “I think you can guess,” Ihnat told Ukrainian television. “If Iskander-M missiles are intercepted, you can draw conclusions about the means that specifically targeted the objectives – ballistic targets.”

The attacks, which sent Kyiv residents running for shelter in metro stations, were part of a new wave of Russian air strikes this month as Ukraine, armed with new Western weapons, prepares a push to try to take back territory Russia has seized in the “special military operation” launched in February 2022. “With these constant attacks, the enemy seeks to keep the civilian population in deep psychological tension,” said Serhiy Popko, the head of the city’s military administration. Two people were killed and eight wounded in a Russian attack on the Ukrainian city of Toretsk in the eastern region of Donetsk on Monday, regional Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said.


Comment: So the Russians can hit strategic military targets deep in Ukraine’s rear area. If they kept this kind of targeting up on a continuous basis, they would make some real progress in degrading any developing Ukrainian offensive capability. This would be so much more effective than trying to terror bomb Kyiv. That’s not breaking the Ukrainians. It’s pissing them off. Plus that’s where the Ukrainian air defense assets are concentrated. Shooting down the vast majority of drones and missiles targeting Kyiv is giving the Ukrainians a win and a morale boost. Why don’t they force the Ukrainians to redeploy those air defense assets by targeting more airfields and assembly areas further west? 

For a while the Russians seemed to settle on a plan to destroy the Ukrainian power grid. It was a good plan, but they stopped for some inexplicable reason. Who’s running their air campaign?


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71 Responses to “Russia hits base in Ukraine in new wave of strikes, Zelenskiy praises Patriots”

  1. Yeah, Right says:

    The Khmelnitskiy airport was struck because that was where Su-24 bombers equipped with Storm Shadow missiles were operating from.

    “Were” being the operative word. The missile strike took out five of the Su-24, which represented most of the Storm Shadow-capable aircraft in the Ukrainian inventory.

    The explanation for why the Ukrainians made such a “rare” admission is simple: there was a British BBC crew in the city at the time of the strike, so the Ukrainians would have decided that there was little point going with their normal “No, nothing to see here, we shot down all the missiles”

    • TTG says:

      Yeah, Right,

      Two weeks ago, an ammo storage facility there was hit by drones or missiles with a huge explosion and at least one after explosion. Khmelnitskiy has been targeted several times before that as well.

      • Yeah, Right says:

        True, but this time the Russians were aiming at the airfield, not an ammo dump.

        I’m explaining why: they had pinpointed the airfield where storm shadow equipped Su-24 bombers were operating from, and decided to take them out.

        Give the Russians credit where credit is due: there was a lapse in Ukrainian security and the Russians noticed it.

        You know as well as I do what that lapse was, so I have no idea why you won’t acknowledge it.

        • TTG says:

          Yeah, Right,

          No, I don’t know what that lapse was. But there obviously was some kind of lapse or ineffective security/deception measure. The Ukrainians will adjust quickly.

    • Billy Roche says:

      Yeah right: it begs the question then, what did you expect the Ukrainians to say?

      • Yeah, Right says:

        What would I expect the Ukrainians to say?

        I would expect them to say “Nothing to see here, we shot all the missiles down”.

        Like they are doing now in Kiev now that they have turned off the street cams and started arresting everyone who posts videos from their phones: Nothing to see here, we shot all the missiles down.

  2. Fred says:

    “Terrors bombing” with a casualty rate of what? Did the night clubs close yet, not from Russian bombs but from lack of customers due to the customers all enlisting to fight for mother Ukraine? Have the millions of refugees returned , to fight for Ukraine and work in Ukraine’s factories?

    • TTG says:


      Out of around 12 million who left, 5 million returned as of last September.

      • Fred says:


        Surprisingly that makes little news, but if only 10% are military age ought to increase the ranks significantly.

        • TTG says:


          Women and children comprised the bulk of those leaving Ukraine. Military age men weren’t allowed to leave. As those refugees were leaving, tens of thousands of military age men living outside Ukraine returned to ukraine to take up arms.

          • Fred says:


            ” Military age men weren’t allowed to leave.”

            They weren’t? What, or who, stopped them as the border police were a little busy on the other border. Have the ‘tens of thousands’ who returned and “took up arms” (voluntarily, unlike the conscripted) been the ones fighting or the ones in reserve for the offensive that still hasn’t happened but is advertised more loudly than Bud Light every day?

          • TTG says:


            No they weren’t. Martial law and full mobilization was declared on day one of the invasion. I’m surprised you forgot all the videos of the men folk saying goodby to their families as they put them on the trains to Poland. Those returning emigres came back with the express intent to defend their country. Some went straight to the front, many in Territorial Defense Force units. Some went into longer term training for existing and newly raised army units. I’m sure many of them are in those units raised just for the coming counteroffensive. This wait and see period is no different than the period before the Kherson counteroffensive. A lot of observers derided it as something that would never happen… until it did.

          • James says:


            You were right about the Kherson counteroffensive. You and Colonel Lang called it.

        • Fred says:


          Martial law, is that the one allowing him to arrest all his political opponents?

          • TTG says:


            It allowed him to outlaw Russia supporting political parties. Most of the members of those parties still sit in the Verkhovna Rada. Traitors like Medvedchuk were arrested. Corrupt officials have also been arrested or dismissed.

          • Fred says:


            Are those who disagree with policy “Russian supporters “? That’s the standard line of our Marxist left. Is accusation guilt? That’s standard policy in oppressive regimes; and becoming standard policy here, too.

  3. Fourth and Long says:

    Discovered today in a university in ______: 8 = 32

    There are several corollaries
    . C1 … One fourth equals One. (Divide each side by 8)
    . C2 … 3 = 5 (to convince yourself of this simply express 8 and 32 as powers of 2 and equate exponents)
    As a research project, guess the missing location above and deduce that 32 – 8 = 25

    • Muralidhar Rao says:

      Brother you have some awe some math skills. When are you going to design the Hypersonics to defeat those nasty rooskies?

  4. Eric Newhill says:

    The Russian strategy concerning degrading Ukro infrastructure is strange and even, on the surface, schizophrenic. As you say, “For a while the Russians seemed to settle on a plan to destroy the Ukrainian power grid. It was a good plan, but they stopped for some inexplicable reason. Who’s running their air campaign?” – same goes for Ukro rail lines and military staging areas.

    The anti-western zombies (Johnson, Martyanov, MofA et al) say that the schizophrenia is actually part of an ingenious Russian strategy to allow Ukro troops and ordnance to get to the front so the can be destroyed. The zombies seem to turn a blind eye to all of the Russian losses caused by said troops and ordnance arriving on the line.

    IMO, the Russians have to coordinate with certain oligarchs who cannot allow their businesses to be too heavily impacted by attacks on critical infrastructure. And that explains why infrastructure that should have been destroyed in a USA shock and awe approach, is still mostly up and running. That or the Russians really are idiots and really suck at war fighting, but I think it’s the oligarchs. The Russians simply can’t be that retarded.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Reminds me of Howard Hughes calling Nixon to complain about the atomic testing outside of Las Vegas, while his Hughes Industries very likely were profiting somehow from the work which enabled the tests.

      In other news, the US administration more than hinted that it would take Taiwan under it’s nuclear umbrella. Those sorts of huge unknowns are likely a factor in the Russian hesitancy you observe. A major theme here for a long time is the desire of the UK and US to prompt Russia to over react.

    • wiz says:


      The Ukrainians proved very adept at quickly repairing the damage to the power grid and finding alternative means of supply. Their AD seems to be getting better also.
      Maybe the Russians stopped because it was just not worth the effort and resources spent.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        Yes. Probably a factor as well. However, I don’t think the Ukros can repair all infrastructure elements that handily. Some of the issue is the Russians not destroying the aspects are more difficult (or impossible) to quickly repair.

        Agree that Ukro and US AD is better/more effective than its detractors let on. Ritter going on about inadequacies of Patriot systems based on his Gulf War experience is risible, but typical of the Russian worshippers. Those systems have undergone many upgrades over the past 30 years +.

    • LeaNder says:

      Eric, would I find you among Johnson supporters concerning anti-‘Cultural Marxism’, pro-Trump the elite victim of Russiagate, heavily pro stolen election?

      Maybe not. In many ways I recall agreeing with you, but on many matters not a bit.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        Yes. I am anti-woke/Marxism in any form. I am certain the election was stolen. I think Trump is a jerk, but a jerk with the right ideas. So he’s better than all the cucks, sell outs and pervert enablers in DC.

        • Billy Roche says:

          me too. I would rather have 100 jerky Trumps w/t right ideas and the hutzpha to carry through on them, then all the sell outs, pervert enablers, and communist shills, in the US. What is the opposite of MAGA? Someone s/ask “two fingers Joey”.

  5. Babeltuap says:

    How many US stores have left Moscow as opposed to how many US stores have left US cities due to either crime or poor management? It would be an interesting topic to explore as the war drags on.

    Burger King for example has shutdown 27 locations in the US. Mixed bag of reasons but the one in Moscow is still opened for business:


    Several Walmarts have shutdown in Chicago due to crime along with a large bag of stores in the LA area for the same reason. Russia and Ukraine are getting bombed but the US is also getting hit. Granted not conventional bombs but bombs nonetheless.

    • Fred says:


      I suspect that western chain stores operating in Russia since ’91 were little more than Russian firms with a licensing agreement to use the American (or European) name for branding purposes. The chains being driven out of US cities by decades of local democratic policies are a different matter entirely. The locals will continue to vote for getting what they are getting good and hard, and the local politicians will deliver gooder and harder.

      • Billy Roche says:

        The left will continue to vote to defund the fascist police. In the absence of any personal security necessary stores, hospitals, cultural and sporting centers will be closed. In order to save citizens from violence any good samaritan who helps protect other’s w/b arrested and sent to prison. The areas will then be branded as under-served. By whom? By those rascist capitalist pigs who want to work and make money. The non existent tax base w/completely crater, violence will be the norm, and someone will write a novel of American cities entitled The Cities of the Flies. In comparison to most American cities Detroit will seem as a “Shining City on a Hill” . And yes, leftist will continue to vote for more of the insanity.

        • Fred says:


          You seem extra ranty today. Maybe using that energy to register republicans so they can “vote harder” would be more useful.

          • Billy Roche says:

            Fred; it depends on the kind of republicans you have in mind. If you mean the RINO/GOPe professional politician advocates then no. No it would not do to have more of those. But I can always profit from some advice. So how did you get into registering republicans?

          • Fred says:


            If you want to register folks to vote harder you can use google to find the local party. What have you actually done all these years, the same old thing and expect different results?

          • Billy Roche says:

            Fred; so you continue to register republican voters using google. How successful have you been?

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Continue. You are making serious headway. You are a few baby steps away from the conclusion – that the ghouls in charge, elites, vampires, billionaires, etc have no qualms about losing the US lower 48 to a nuclear holocaust. Because it’s ungovernable toast anyway and they know it. Same with immigration, the British and German Nazis were past masters. They don’t care if the pets take over for a brief time. Remember what the Brits did earlier wiping out the Indians with small pox infected blankets. Technology has advanced. Oh, an objection? Something along the lines of “c’mon, can’t you see how they promote diversity and woke perversity, and even have immigrant Prime Ministers and mayors and once had a black poetess (potus) and a black vp? Hahahaha. Nothing like a sly devious trick or two, eh wot?

  6. Mark Logan says:

    Perhaps the Russian objective has switched from the power grid to attempting to deplete Ukraine’s stock of AA missiles. They may think we can not build Patriots et al fast enough and they might even be right about that. If they manage this their far larger air force would have, in theory, free reign. They probably feel this must be accomplish this before the western powers can get a counter force of F-16s on line, and at worst, keeps a significant portion of Ukraine’s AA assets in places like Kyiv and away from the fronts.

    • James says:

      Mark Logan

      I found this twitter thread on the challenges facing the Ukrainian Air Force in the operation of F16s in Ukraine (by someone who seems to know what he is talking about) pretty interesting:

      I think he raises some interesting issues but the Ukrainians have outperformed their skeptics so far in this war so I think they will rise to the challenge of operating F-16s as well.

  7. English Outsider says:

    Said for a while now, this war’s going to be studied for decades as an example of extraordinary skilful Russian generalship. I don’t see how they’ve put a foot wrong so far, except they’re rubbish at PR. Rubbish at least as far as PR directed at the West is concerned. They’re OK on the PR elsewhere.

    I don’t think that matters much. The stranglehold the Western media has on information in the West is so complete that the Russians could speak in the tongues of angels and still not get through.

    Do they want even to get through to us? I doubt it. After the Merkel/Poroshenko/Hollande revelations what’s the point? Any agreement they might come to with us would be unreliable. So barring nuclear they’ll just plod on until they’ve achieved their objectives and we in the West will just have to lump it.

    In the UK that blunt statement of fact would get me labelled as a Russian shill. Does often, in fact. But should one avoid facing reality merely because the reality is unpalatable? And that’s the plain reality that is beginning to dawn on more and more in the West. Even Borrell, that Russophobe of Russophobes, is beginning to grasp it. I bet the sharper brains in the White House have grasped it long since and are busy working out how to avoid the electoral blowback as they gear up for the tricky task of getting their man in for his second term.

    The Euros won’t have such an easy time. There’s nothing wrong with the US that can’t be put right if they can get their cronies under control. They have fuel and food to spare. An electorate that doesn’t look to me to be dumbed down, for all the talk. A couple of oceans that even to me, as a non-military man, look to make defence of the homeland a walk in the park. But the Euros? Us over the Atlantic?

    We don’t have any of those advantages. The Berlin/Brussels Barbarossa II is the dampest of damp squibs. We’ve sanctioned ourselves to hell and back. And the jewel in our crown, the industrial colossus that is Germany, is retreating not so gracefully to the ’30’s with the dumbest electorate in the Western world retreating dutifully with it.

    That answers the first question that was glaringly obvious after February last year. How will things go in Europe after the defeat? We know the answer now. Down.

    The second is what will happen in remnant Ukraine. We hope it’ll become what the entire Ukraine was until recently. A handy zone of destabilisation and insecurity that’ll serve to weaken and with any luck damage the Russians. “Overextending and unbalancing” Russia, in the hopeful terms used in the Rand report commissioned by State a few years back.

    That’s the bit I’ve been puzzling over for well over a year now. I can’t see how the Russians are going to solve the puzzle of remnant Ukraine. Nor does Sleboda, and he’s immeasurably more clued up.

    Nor can I see how the Russians are going to get their late 2021 security demands met.
    Yet I doubt they’ve come this far and risked so much without knowing how they’re going to play the endgame. If it weren’t for the tragedy of what’s we’re putting our proxies through it’ll be interesting to see the final moves.

    • TTG says:


      If you think this war is an example of extraordinarily skillful Russian generalship, you know very little about generalship. My father would say you don’t know shit from shinola about military generalship.

      The Russian generals have been extraordinarily bad from day one, even before day one. I find it amazing how bad they are. So do many military observers. Russian military writings are very good and they presented a carefully cultivated image of an efficient and deadly war machine. They have proven to be grossly incompetent leaders of a grossly rotten force. If they ever do pull their heads out of their asses, it could go much worse for the Ukrainians.

      • Poppa Rollo says:

        If you want a knowledgeable opinion as to the skill of Russian generalship, look no further than Putin. He continues to trash his military leaders due to their incompetence.

      • Fourth and Long says:

        It’s not the generals per se, it’s much more than that. Suvorikin is a general, for example. And his call to pull back from Kherson seems to clearly have been a wise decision which saved his side serious loss. I’m not sticking up for Russian generalship or any generalship, it’s just that the problems are more systemic. It’s a pity you guys are so into the nuts and bolts, however important that indeed is. I think there may be a death wish of some sort in operation here. I recall discussions with a very eminent psychiatrist during the time period subsequent to 911 over the frankly bizarre domestic reactions here and especially “American exceptionalism.” She said she had been treating suicidal people for over thirty years and knew the clinical signs very well, and that in her opinion the United States was exhibiting a large number of the symptoms. I suppose no one other than Babeltuap watched the Hilary Clinton interview which I linked to in a post recently. She told the story of Putin telling her a story about his mother being pulled out from under a heap of corpses in Leningrad by his father who had returned on leave from fighting. She had been mistaken for dead. All her other children died. Vladimir Putin was born, from that woman left for dead several years later. You mentioned once you studied anthropology. Consider what a ancient shaman (someone who has, often through deathly illness a special connection with the world of the dead) might make of that story.
        Anyway, I think there’s a lot going on here that goes right past everyone. And yes I know that intelligence agencies do psychological studies, and I’ve read more than a few and some have been remarkable, but I’m trying to point to things on another level which for usually good reason are dismissed.

        You can talk all you want, and with justification, about poor generalship on the Russian side. I seem to recall that Col Lang never tired, however, of pointing out and illustrating in great detail how downright awful the foreign policy leadership of the US was and continued to be.

        • TTG says:


          You’re right about the problem being systemic. Those generals built a theoretically superior military, but never tested those theories or their new military. Whether they truly believed it would work as advertised or secretly realized they built a pile of crap is another question.

          I watched that Clinton interview and her Putin story. His personally enduring the siege of Leningrad in such a traumatic way surely formed his world view. I do wonder if that world view will allow him to contemplate the possibility that Russia can survive a “not win” in Ukraine. He’s screwed the pooch as to having any kind of normalized relationship with Europe for a generation, but there’s the whole rest of the world to play around with. Hell, Prigozhin may be heading off to Africa for a while. Russia will survive.

      • English Outsider says:

        TTG – I believe the one point where they could have screwed up was right at the beginning. If they’d got that wrong they’d have been in real trouble.

        But those early days were extraordinary. The managed to neutralise a really formidable Ukrainian army, and that with far smaller numbers than were facing them. Under ROE that, as Chirkin pointed out somewhat grumpily, meant they were fighting with one hand tied behind their backs. An extraordinary achievement and one I think’ll be recognised as such when the details come out.

        Mariupol was a “mixture as before” Aleppo style hostage release operation. I think our military analysts failed to grasp that. In fact our analysts performed very badly all along. They attributed to the Russians the plan we’d have followed in their place and then crowed triumphantly when the Russians failed to follow it.

        Not once did I see them trying to work out what the actual Russian plan was. Big fail.

        But realistically, this was never one we were going to win. We’d trained the Ukrainians up in small unit tactics. We never gave them a combined arms capability, or anything like. Then we put them up against one of the few armies in the world that was capable of combined arms warfare. It could never end other than it’s going to.

        Always barring nuclear of course. Will the neocons be desperate enough for that? Doubt it. I can see them having a go with dirty bombs and the like but not MAD.

        The whole war was in any case a sideshow. It was the sanctions that were expected to win the day for us. When they didn’t, that was it. We’re really just hanging around now waiting to see how the Russians tidy up.

        And waiting to see if the Russians return to their 2021 European security demands. Wondering, since our European politicians have got themselves impossibly far out on a limb, to see what the Russians will do to get those security demands met.

        • Fourth and Long says:

          Time to take our quiz. Circle your answer and when a suitable time presents itself you will be informed ..
          The quiz starts now:

          A 500 or 1000 pound bomb detonated near “elite” residences near Moscow.

          Being done by US, the man, an expert says.
          Or … let’s see .. Uk..

          Judge Andrew Napolitano – Drone War in ..

          This country, the USA, is led by
          A – mediocrities
          B – something less
          C – something much much less
          D – Joe Biden

      • Fred says:


        The Russian generals are so bad a number of them have killed in combat on the front lines and their armed forces still control most of eastern Ukraine. But they have definitely lost the meme battles.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        Agree. Russian Generals have failed to live up to their vaunted reputation and my expectations. They stink at war fighting. Additionally, it seems to me that prior to jumping off the invasion, the Russians failed to war game it – or if they did run various scenarios, they were high as kites throughout the entire exercise. They didn’t see the US/NATO stepping in? Really? They thought Ukraine would be horrified by the half-assed, under resourced, Russian attack and would be permitted to capitulate by Feb 28, 2022? The Russians couldn’t imagine the possibility of escalation to WW3 and the impact trying to avoid that possibility that would have on the order of battle? Bottom line, if you want your victory to be predicated on the gamble that your enemy will quickly beg for peace, you best first throttle him pretty damn hard and fast. The Russians failed to sufficiently throttle Ukraine. They didn’t have the resources and still don’t.

        Furthermore, Russia gave Ukraine time, time that was used by NATO to bolster and rebuild Ukro forces. Stupid as stupid gets. The Russians are still affording NATO ample time to come up with all kinds of counter measures on the battle field and in the geopolitical arena. Stupid in the extreme.

        I say the above as one who originally mostly bought into the Russians as 5 chess players myth. By Nov 2022 it was becoming painfully obvious that the Russians weren’t doing maskirovka or anything else tricky, but are just flunkies. By Jan 2023 that should have become undeniable to any objective observer.

        • Muralidhar Rao says:

          I think this conflict has more issues that had to be settled by the Russians. 1) Most of the Russians have family connections in the Ukraine, regardless of the behaviour of the leadership of Ukraine Russians have to show their own population that they do care about the Ukranians. No wonder Putins approval rating is in 80% range 2)They knew the immense economic and media power exerted by the West. 3) They had to create a narrative in the Global South and its leadership to be on their side if not stay at least neutral. That is the reason why they went in softly as not to alienate the Global south. I also believe that Russians don’t believe in bombastic Shock and Awe principles of the US ruling elite. Shock and Awe might be good PR but in the long term they are detrimental to the interests of the people who practice it. I also think they truly wanted to end it early so they were willing to negotiate till Boris Johnson got involved and ditched the deal. After that they were under no illusion that this conflict can be resolved peacefully. So they are engaged in attrition war fare where Ukranians are dying in huge numbers ( I truly feel sorry for them) and also engaged in disarming the Ukranian air defenses. No wonder the Washington elite is now talking about a frozen conflict like Korea/Israel etc.

      • leith says:

        TTG – I’ll play Devil’s Advocate on Russian generalship. Yes, many owe their general’s stars to looking the other way during the rape of Russia’s military-industrial complex by oligarchs and the Kremlin thief-in-chief. Or others were promoted beyond their competence level by brown-nosing, like in other militaries.

        But there are some competent ones that have been marginalized by Putin’s bone-headed strategy decisions – hindered by the poor state of weapons and equipment – short-circuited by an incompetent Chief of General Staff who had earlier believed cyber ops from trolls like Fancy Bear and others could supplant kinetic ops – handicapped by a Defense Ministry more concerned with medals and parades than troop welfare and training – and encumbered with a logistic support system that dates to 1945.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Try translating this with the already installed translation features of Telegram.
      Maybe this will help.
      Drone attack on Moscow aims to escalate US-NATO war with Russia.
      The world directorship of murder and sadism, long located primarily in London England with a burgeoning outpost now for years in Washington, just finished it’s meeting .. (where?) … Hiroshima (!) not coincidentally. Not more than a few days later … drone attacks on Moscow. I don’t know, probably not, you folks don’t go in for coffee, but maybe you need to check what’s in the tea you’re drinking. Remember that with a simple hypodermic needle a lemon can not only be poisoned, but a tiny slip of paper on which a secret message is written can be inserted directly into the lemon. But you need to know how to read the tea leaves? No. The message in the lemon. Prefer milk?
      The individual posting above has been safely tranquilized. You may move along now with no further concerns for your security and happiness.

      • English Outsider says:

        Thanks, F & L. I’d seen neither.

        I try to stay with the basics, F&L. And the madder this thing gets, the more important I believe those basics are.

        The cause of the SMO was put in a nutshell by one of TTG’s commenters only a day or so back. “Putin launched a spoiling attack against Ukraine forces who were forming up for an attack on Donbass, the way I read it.”

        That was evident from soon after 21st February, the day Russia recognised the self-declared republics. This was no “unprovoked” Russian attack. It was the minimum needed to stop the Kiev forces getting into the Donbass, with all the consequences that would have followed.

        I believe that that Russian intervention was deliberately provoked in order to afford a pretext for the sanctions war.


        As for our proxies, I’ve been unable to understand from the first day how anyone in the West could ever have believed they’d have a chance of defeating the Russians.

        But they’re courageous and determined fighters so there was a very good chance they’d “bleed” the Russians. The Western hope was that we’d set the Russians enough of a problem in Ukraine to severely weaken them long term. We’re still hoping for that. I don’t think that’s worked, or will.

        TTG has, with the fair-mindedness that has always been the feature of this site, allowed me to set out a contrarian view of how I believe the conflict will now go. Shan’t repeat it here. But it cannot be stressed too often that the hope of avoiding defeat by bringing NATO forces in Europe to bear is ill-founded.

        There aren’t enough, nor well enough equipped, to make the difference. If Biden and Scholz push it to the limit and use such forces as we have based in and around Europe, all we’ll see is those bases getting demolished. The Euros, UK included, are in danger of getting themselves into a conflict they can’t handle.

        My own particular worry is the UK Rivet Joint aircraft. ISR assets, of which those aircraft form part, are perhaps the most significant part of such meagre assistance as we are rendering to our proxies. If the Russians find that inconvenient they might well decide to knock those assets out.

        I doubt they’d attack an American asset directly. But taking out our UK Rivet Joint would demonstrate they were no longer prepared to allow that ISR assistance to continue; and would demonstrate that without risking the Americans going nuclear.

        But assuming the Western leaders aren’t clinically mad – is that a safe assumption? – I believe all the current war talk is hot air and chest-beating and the Euros will eventually have to admit they’ve bitten of more than they can chew.


        At the start of the SMO I was guilty of issuing apocalyptic warnings. “The world was shifting on its axis”, I said of that February 21st, and we in Europe were going to have to live in a world clear of European domination. Five centuries of that domination were coming to an end. All that.

        Complete rubbish. Europe was going down anyway and all the Ukrainian debacle has done has been to underline and accelerate that decline.

        Maybe a little more than that? A most perceptive commenter on Dr North’s site in England slipped in a comment once that showed what the European role, particularly that of Germany, will be:-

        ” A rumour from Washington related to this bothered me. When asked why the US seemed to be forcing Russia and China together, along with India and Iran, etc, the answer was,

        ” ‘ They’re going together anyway, whatever we do. We’re just arranging the West around us.’

        Maybe that’s all that’s going on?”

        • Billy Roche says:

          E.O. There are no liars herein but correspondents w/diff points of view. If one continues to tell the same story others grow to believe it. Such stories need to be countered. To wit … there was no SMO, no legions of latent Nazis posing as Ukrainian soldiers and infiltrating the general populace and Russian d/n have to get to the Donbass in the “nick of time”. The Donbass is part of Ukraine and Russia d/n belong in Ukraine. Concern that war in Ukraine will lead to general European conflict is unlikely. The main forces of Denmark, Macedonia, Spain, and France, Britain, and Germany are neither willing nor able to fight a fig. There was an invasion of Ukraine by Russia to restore her empire. When Ukraine runs out of lives or Russia runs out of will to exchange her young men for empire the killing will stop.
          Despite all the hand wringing and speeches western Europe d/n give a rats ass about Ukraine (or all of eastern Europe, they never have) as long as a Russian Empire d/n threaten them. Ukraine is an American and eastern European problem. Eastern Europe b/c a restored Russia Empire threatens its independence, and America b/c Russia’s invasion makes America stand up or sit down about freedom, and independence. America is stuck. If she abandons Ukraine she acknowledges she is no more special a country than … Nepal or Canada. Great dumplings, great maple syrup, but not special lands. After two fingers Joey’s exit of Afghanistan no American President can just up and walk away from Ukraine. Who’ll blink first Zelinsky, Biden, or Putin?

          • Eric Newhill says:

            Billy Roche,
            Well, you’re overlooking Ukrainian shelling of the Donbas and the killing of ethnic Russian civilians since 2014. Yes, there has been some provocation by Russia involvement in break away movements that, in turn, led to the shelling/killing, but, the bottom line is that Ukraine was killing its own citizens. It also overlooks the events of 2014 that led to the moderate, lawfully elected, somewhat pro-Russian government being ousted in a coup d’etat sponsored, arguably, by the West.

            If the US needs to police the world and has a right to militarily intervene in places like Kosovo, then, arguably, the Russians have the right to at least police their own borders and intervene when civil war is happening on them.

            Disagree? IMO, disagreement is born of mere prejudice against Russians and desire to project US dominance over the world in a manner that insults other sovereign people’s interests.

            There are no good guys in this conflict.

          • English Outsider says:

            I believe your very real sense of honour, Bill, which I can only respect, is being used by dishonourable men for dishonourable purposes.

          • Billy Roche says:

            EN; yes Ukraine was killing its own citizens and that is the point. The people in the Donbass are Ukrainian citizens not Russian citizens. The northern states, in the War of Northern Aggression, were killing their own citizens. The Donbass, like the south, was/is in rebellion. BTW the Russian invasion of Ukraine had nothing to do w/2014. The invasion was decided in Moscow when Ukrainians declared their independence in the summer of ’91; far b/f 2014.

          • Billy Roche says:

            E.O my sincere thanks for your forbearance. Nevertheless you continue to write about a SMO that never was (it was an invasion of a sovereign neighbor. There was no Ukrainian offensive into the Donbass stopped by brave Russian soldiers in the nick of time. The UM was not filled to the brim w/latent Nazis hoping to rtn to 1944, and Russian forces that reached Kiev and Kharkov were stopped dead in their tracks). Recently you have have resurrected your use of the term “remnant Ukraine” suggesting that the only end game satisfying Russian security (after all Ukraine won’t need it once it is again part of the Russian Empire) will be complete submission to Russia. Putin himself c/n have written a better prop piece. Churchell once thundered “what manner of men do they think we are. We shall fight them on the …”. Do you believe Ukraine’s commitment to independence less intense than Britain’s? There is no second try. They break free now from Russian oppression or it’s over. You, I, and Col. Lang all wrote March of 22 that Ukraine s/give up Crimea and the Donbass. It is clear to me that was never Russia’s end game. She wants it all. Success in Ukraine means Moldova and Georgia can also kiss their ass goodby and despite NATO, life in the Baltics w/become constant stress. I too am a realist. My reality d/n accept a reborn Russian Empire. Nyet! That’s where we respectfully differ.

      • leith says:

        F&L –

        Seems the drone attack on Putin’s neighborhood near Moscow was done with short range drones. Ones that are incapable of making the 500 km journey fro Ukraine. So option 1] False Flag by Putin to rile up Ivan Lunchbox and clear the way for general mobilization? – Or option 2] Liberty of Russia Legion strikes again? – Or option 3] The Creme-de-la-Kremlin have decided that Putin is a liability?

  8. jim ticehurst.. says:

    Is there a Russian Strategic Objective To Drag This War Out and NOT Support or
    Supply Their own Army…How Far..How Deep…How Long..When you realize TTG is Right…about What the Russians really Could Do or Have Done at Any Time..

    Peter The Great…Or General Peter Sellers,,? Maybe,,,General Confusion..

    YES…Put a Circle and Question Mark Around “WHY”..on the Top..

    It Does NOT Make Sense..When it Does…Probably Donner and Blitzen…

    • Poppa Rollo says:

      IMO. Putin’s war is an attempt to stop Russia from falling apart. He hopes that dead soldiers will strengthen patriotism and central rule by the Kremlin. I expect more false flag drone attacks on Moscow.

  9. jim ticehurst.. says:

    Perhaps Since The Russians Failed To READ The Signals …or Break the Code
    last year April..2022,,,NOT Realizing That the RUSSIN Haters in the UK
    And DC..were Itching For a Shootout ..Cross Hairs Red Square..

    Proof FISA…and a POTUS Take Down…MAJESTIC..

    Now That Russia had to Take and Hold The Eastern From..and Black Sea Ports
    They Had to Form an Axis…Iran..N Korea…China..Silent Bidders..And Coordinate
    A Global Response ..TARGET …..USA…plan Currency Replacements..Market Controls..Infiltration..into Enemy Turf…Cpoordinate Terrorist Cells…Bring Out
    Cold War Resources ..Proof…Arrests Known Terrorists…Plus one point five Got Aways…WITH..?

    This Is a Holding Operation…for The King of The North…Rebuild..Psy Ops..
    …ICC Ops…Not Thier Joint Command..Until The Hammer can Join
    the Sickle..

    Right Now…its Clear…The USA is a PEARL..in a Fragile Shell..War is HELL..
    But its something…You can Tell,,,By The Smell…Except Mustard..More like Shit.

  10. mcohen says:

    So toretsk was attacked.not good in terms of strategy.i wonder if panic is starting to set in amongst the Russians.

  11. English Outsider says:

    Left a fragment in again at the bottom, TTG. Swore I’d never do that again! Failed. Apologies.

    • TTG says:


      I think I took care of it.

      • English Outsider says:

        If this were from the part of Ireland where I know the speech patterns well, I’d say “You’re a scholar and a gentleman, Sir!”

        But writing from the boringly prosaic English provinces, I’ll just say thanks very much, TTG.

        • leith says:

          EO –

          My father, born in Tidewater Virginia and who spent his teen years in Maryland, always used that phrasing, He was never in Ireland in his life. His only overseas travel was on troop transports to North Africa, Sicily, and Italy.

  12. Fourth and Long says:

    A question requiring your expertise. You need only watch up to the 1:40 (minute sec) mark:
    Drone War in … Judge Napolitano:
    The guest, an American Colonel, says that’s a 500 to 1000 pound explosive charge.
    Ok – my question: Do you know where I can get some of that weed (he smokes)?
    Seem like an accurate assessment so to you?

    • TTG says:


      I know Tony Shaffer well. He wasn’t called Tony Baloney for nothing. There wasn’t a molehill he couldn’t make into a mountain, but he was a sharp dude. It’s more likely that the large explosion in the field was a Russian air defense missile. The drones that attacked Moscow were filmed in flight. They aren’t that big, certainly not 500 to 1,000 pound warhead big. Here’s a better discussion of these drone attacks, although there’s still a lot of questions.


  13. KjHeart says:

    I was reading through the Ukraine SitRep posted by The Fivecoat Consulting Group (TFCG)

    They note that for the month of May –

    “Only one takeaway today — the war of attrition in Ukraine continues with no real changes in the front lines”…[David]

    David (of TFCG) wrote up a short synopsis of the recent RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) report and a link to the full report.

    The synopsis of changes in the Russian forces organization (since the beginning of the war) was most interesting to me.


    Also of interest an article on Yahoo

    “Wagner’s Prigozhin blames Russian MoD for Moscow drone attack”


    – this sentence I found interesting

    “At the same time, he [Prigozhin] openly rejoiced that some of the drones attacked lavish mansions of the Russian elite on the Rublyovo-Uspenskoye Highway.”

    I was wondering just who lived in those high rise apartments.. I also thought that the video seems a political move from Prigozhin. Having withdrawn (I believe?) from the field he is an a stronger position to criticize. Hmmm.

    Thank you TTG for the link about the real challenges of detecting drones/UAV’s and LPGM’s etc. That answers a lot of questions.


  14. Sam says:

    Ukrainians’ Desire To Join NATO And The EU


    Interesting polling data. How would sentiment change towards Russia among the Ukrainian people? And vice versa.

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