Russia Mobilizes Reserves by Walrus.

V. Putin has announced the mobilisation of Russias reserves. According to Putin, this will be a deliberate, unhurried, process.

Comment: Col. Lang was right. The Russians appear to have bitten off more than they can chew. Conventional wisdom is that the Russian plan B is now being executed – the Donbas will be absorbed into Russia after a referendum in the next few days.

The outcome of that, from a Russian perspective, is that any further Ukrainian attacks will be construed as attacks on Russia herself. That allegedly leaves them free to interdict NATO resupply operations in NATO countries.

As for a calm unhurried mobilization, I suspect not. I am reminded of the opening scene in ”Enemy At The Gates”

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/69390

.

Where does this stop?

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76 Responses to Russia Mobilizes Reserves by Walrus.

  1. John Merryman says:

    I think the question is that the ball is back on Nato’s side of the court, so what is their response?
    Whatever your ideology, the Russian view is they were not given much of a choice and from the facts on the ground, have been every bit as cautious here, as in Syria. So does the West just keep poking the bear, until there is a World War, or do they step back and try to memory hole it, like the various other fiascos, from Afghanistan to Covid.

    • Mike G says:

      So you think for the sake of peace, Sudetenland and the rest of Czeckoslovakia were rightly handed over to Hitler? Halifax, not Churchill, should have become Prime Minister, so that after Dunkirk, never would there have bene the need for so much to be owed by so many to so few? Maybe Roosevelt should have negotiated after Pearl Harbour? Leonidas should have surrendered at Thermopylae? Horatio would more wisely have left the bridge to the Etruscans?

      • John Merryman. says:

        If you can actually think that far back in history, than at that point in time, all of Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and prior to that, part of the Russian Empire. In fact, much of eastern Ukraine was considered part of Russia proper.
        The problem with this, us good, them bad, level of grade school thinking, is it’s not exactly, know thine enemy, The Art of War, degree of insight.
        I know various people here are old military and knowing a couple of close relatives, who were officers in the last century, that level of outside the box thinking is/was seriously frowned on.
        I suppose I will let events speak for themselves, whatever happens.

        • Bill Roche says:

          And if you think back far enough France was part of Rome, The U.S. was part of Britain, and Russia was part of the Mongolian Empire. But Ukraine has been fighting Russia for her independence for the last 100 years – longer than America fought Britain. So shall nations never get to achieve their independence any more? Is that old fashioned thinking; neither in or out of any box? Here is an out of the box idea. Russia takes her army back inside her own borders and the war ends. Novel thought no?

          • John Merryman says:

            Uh, Russia was just fine with Ukraine going her own way, from 91, to 22.
            History is a bitch, when it doesn’t fit the narrative.

        • Mike G says:

          Ukraine part of Russia through history?Yes, and the territory of Ireland was subect to the English/British crown for eight centuries. And part of the UK for over a century before 1922. Westminster’s calaim to Ireland was as justifiable as the Kremlin’s claim to Ukraine.

          • Bill Roche says:

            Responding to John Merryman I can only think he has no knowledge of eastern European history b/f 2014. Russians were not just pleased as punch w/an independent Ukraine for the 31 years b/t ’91 and ’22. Relations were conducted w/guarded threats from Moscow. I’ll guess (its just my guess) that most Ukrainians knew a Russian invasion was coming some time after ’91.
            Your reference to England/Ireland is apt. I could go on with many similar connections of empires. Perhaps JM would contend that Russia also had that “special relationship” with the Baltic states, Finland, Poland and the Czech and Slovak republics. Look, the girl says NO. NO means NO. Ukraine says NO to subordination by Russia. If Putin accepts “no” Russia can never again be an empire. That, is the existential element! Putin in his recent remarks evoked “Mother Russia” hoping to arouse patriotism of young Russian men (and women). He speaks about Ukraine attacking the very Russian land he loves etc etc. Well Russify the Donbas and of course Ukraine is fighting in it. I am a disbeliever about NATO’s intent to destroy Russia. I call B.S. on that. All hysteria not withstanding the killing could end this afternoon with a word from Putin.. “send everyone home, and I’ll talk to Zelinskyy”. He can’t you see, b/c masters don’t negotiate w/slaves. It took 800 years and how many rebellions b/f Britain was willing to talk to Ireland? It is really that simple, the girl said NO!

  2. blue peacock says:

    Where does this stop? Good question Walrus.

    It all depends which side you’re on. For Putin it is annexation of Eastern Ukraine and the rump Ukraine being a state he can control. For Ukraine & the west, Putin to return back to the original Russia-Ukraine border and recognize the sovereignty of Ukraine.

    • Bill Roche says:

      Your response is short and sweet. But incomplete …and Russia is to keep her hands of Finland, Poland, and the Balts. Why is this sooo hard for the Russophiles to accept?

  3. Barbara Ann says:

    September 21, 2022

    I am grateful for the opportunity to exchange messages here with the Just. God bless all you ironic points of light out there.

  4. Fourth and Long says:

    Greatest deception campaign in recent memory is by whoever rolled out and continued the fantasy story: The F-35 is a plane that can’t fly right.

    Nuclear capable. Stealth – Advanced stealth.

    Finland, thousands of kilometer from Russia’s border, right? About to get a mere 64.
    Should a quiz be offered? Why do they signify that Russia is better off surrendering and installing Ksenia Sobchak as President and letting the talented Russian people flourish in the way they have suffered so cruelly for centuries that they have more than earned it twenty thousand times over?

    Ans: Unlike Ballistic or Cruise missiles they can be Called Bac_.

    One letter completion. It is a terror weapon of unmatched horror.

  5. Leith says:

    Iran will probably also have to call out their reserves. Morality police are being stomped by irate mobs. Iranians are cursing the Republic founder Ayatollah Khomeini and the current Supreme Leader Khameini. Reportedly there are riots in 19 different provinces, more than half the country.

    Too bad Babak is not here to impart his wisdom on the situation.

    • LeaNder says:

      I miss Babak too.

      You feel Auden’s September 1 poem ist more fitting today then post 9/11/2001, when it seemingly was recited quite often too? We were all simply a little impatient then? … Or unfairly denied it felt like 1938 all over again?

      Does the supposedly straight line from Luther to Hitler make sense to you? Luther surely did not influence Austria and thus Hitler born in Linz. One could argue that the Prussia and its Army that Hitler definitively admired was very, very Protestant. But then, I doubt that is something that was on Auden’s Anglican mind. 😉 Or was it?

      • Bill Roche says:

        I’ve read that Luther d/n like Jews but a direct line from Luther to Hitler. Did any particular Pope demonstrate goodness and mercy to German Jews from Westphalia to Pope Leo? Were there no Catholic German soldiers in WW II or was Wehrmacht membership confined to northern Protestant Germans?? The Prussian Army of course was Protestant b/c Prussia was.

        • LeaNder says:

          I’ve read that Luther d/n like Jews but a direct line from Luther to Hitler.

          It’s actually a little bit more complicated with Luther, he had his arms wide open but the Jews wouldn’t come in, thus he must have been a little disappointed.

          But yes, you are right.

          But since you refer to Luther as prototypical antisemite, what about Karl Marx, the German and Jew?

          • Bill Roche says:

            I don’t refer to Luther as a anti-semite. I read that he was. I dunno. My Luthern Pastor would make our confirmation class go to Synagogue (across the street from our church) twice/year to be sure we all understood the connection b/t Christianity and Judaism. So I was surprised to read of Luther’s alleged anti-semitism. As to Marx I don’t find it odd that he was both Jewish and German. German-Jews are common enough. He was responsible for much human agony. I imagine him to have been a very strange man.

        • LeaNder says:

          Ok, but back to antisemitism. Austria had a strong Catholic anti-Semite/antisemite faction. They didn’t need Luther or the self-hating Jew Karl Marx.

    • different clue says:

      I remember a while ago Babak Makkinejad was not commenting for a long time. Then he started commenting again. Some of his comments seemed perhaps different in style than the prior ones had been. The question was raised as to whether this was the “real” Babak Makkinejad or whether it was someone else using the name. ( I know that at least some of those comments seemed stylistically the “real” Babak.)

      Someone finally wrote a comment asking if he was the “real” Babak or not. He wrote
      ” The same. Less patient.” Sometime after that, he went back to writing nothing here.

  6. borko says:

    “I am not bluffing” says Putin.

    He always struck me as a bit of a fatalist.

    • Pat Lang says:

      borko
      Should we offer him Long Island as a concession?

      • borko says:

        No, although there is an increasingly probable scenario where Long Island could be affected, along with the rest of the continental US.

        Whatever the quality of those mobilized reserves, Ukraine cannot continue to fight without NATO help. And after those “referendums” take place, Putin will consider those territories as integral parts of the RF. From that crazy point of view NATO then becomes a part of an invading force.

        Serious negotiations should take place IMO, there’s too much at stake not to. There is always a chance of a coup, but we are betting a lot on that chance.

        • Bill Roche says:

          I am not Ukrainian. I live in NYS. But I know what Zelinskyy should do. Several correspondents herein have said he should… negotiate away a good part of the Donbass and divide Crimea in two (don’t laugh, that’s been done many times b/f). In rtn for land Ukraine gets peace and Putin accomplished his announced goals of de-nazifying Ukraine, returned half of Crimea to Russia, and got dignity and peace for ethnic Russians in Donbass. But here’s the kicker, Ukraine will get NATO membership when they apply. They will.

      • Bill Roche says:

        LI??? Nooo, its still a good place. Montaulk Point, blue fishing, beaches, Amityville Horror house, Gardiner’s Island. Give him all 5 boroughs of NYC.

  7. MapleLeaf says:

    It stops when the balance of power returns to one mediated through international institutions with whatever “rule of law” still remains. Until that time, the Russians playing from a weak hand (and possessing practically only what remains of a military “power”) continues until they achieve enough gains to call it quits, or are forced out.

    From Larry’s blog:

    “Despite the potential peril of this moment, I am amused by the irony of the United States, the United Kingdom and France feigning moral outrage over the Russian’s willingness to accept the results of the votes by citizens of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Did the United States hold a referendum when it took Hawaii or Mexican territory? Did the United Kingdom allow the American colonies a referendum when they wanted their independence? Hell, go down the list of British colonies that were taken by force without the natives of those countries being given a chance to vote to “join” the UK. Ditto for France. I don’t recall them holding an election when they took over Vietnam. It was only when the North Vietnamese held a “vote” at Dien Bien Phu that France “decided” to accept the will of the people.”

    As if such referendum will be anything but a farce. Lipstick on a pig. They can’t be honestly held, under such conditions. As they say, garbage in, garbage out. But that isn’t the point. Putin, like Hitler, first wants to advance a certain “legal” approach, at least according to Russian law (which they can tweak and change at-will, thanks to the utter lack of serious political or civil opposition). All those supplications to the more reasonable of the Russian population about conscripts not being used outside Russian territory… become moot when large chunks of Ukraine are de jure considered Russian territory.

    This is a rather logical progression, one rung higher on the ladder of escalation. It is a sign that neither side sees a preponderance of circumstances to facilitate a solution in the diplomatic realm.

    The partial mobilization occurring now is probably to get out in front of a further increase in support for Ukraine by NATO-partners. I believe the real test of whether this war will truly spill outside of the borders of Ukraine/Russia (not including the economic), will be if Belarus joins in. If as some say, it is preparing to “complicate” the delivery of weapons by making a move at Western Ukraine.

    This winter is going to be shit, only question is for how many…

    • Pat Lang says:

      mapleleaf

      If, by “Larry” you mean Publius Tacitus, I am uncertain as to which of my three categories he belongs in.

    • Fred says:

      MapleLeaf,

      You missed a piece: “Washington and NATO have shot their wad and have no credible conventional military force to counter Russia accepting the results of the referenda. ”

      Some wag over there asked the obvious question of which NATO conventional forces have been engaged in combat and defeated by the Russians. Hell they haven’t even been able to jam surveilance aircraft that watch the entire battle front. Theirs are where, exactly? The whole ‘vote’ in those two oblasts was long predicted, now it is happening after they just got a giant hole punched in thier front lines. Not a good look, that.

      • MapleLeaf says:

        I figure they tried jamming it all, and perhaps it would have worked, but the Russians got too cocky about their technological prowess and shot their wad during the Syrian conflict. Meanwhile, technologies progressed, and even if Russia has 10 shells for every NATO one, I’m sure NATO countries have 10 electronic/electrical engineers for every Russian one (in Russia).

        If they have any technologies that still might do the trick, I doubt they have them in great number, and are probably holding them in reserve for use in a conflict with NATO, where they might buy them a sliver of time. Like Russian surveillance aircraft, I bet they are back-ordered… with delivery dates sometime in the 2030[s]…

        • Fred says:

          MapleLeaf,

          You mean all their ECM gear was ‘lost’ in Syria? Or do you mean technology has progressed so much in 7 months that their gear is now useless? Remarkable!

          I think it is much more basic. The US and other NATO members fly surveilance outside the Ukrainian airspace and pass the information along. The Russians are unwilling to fly over and shoot down said aircraft or try jamming them. Plus their commanders in the field are mediocre and their troop morale is non-existent.

  8. Pat Lang says:

    Walrus

    C’mon man! Their mobilized “reserves” are certain to amount to dog shit. Kids and old men, reminds me of things I saw in the Iran-Iraq War with Iraqi officers standing in the opn on the back decks of tanks screaming at the IRGC led Basiij forces of fanatic civilians that they should “go back, for Allah’s sake, go back.” Sometimes, they broke through, sometimes. The cost was enormous, and counterattacks always drove back those who were left. BTW the Russians are now cannibalizing their training cadres to put them in the line with these “reserves.”

  9. Poul says:

    It’s not just Donbas but also Kherson and Zaporozhye. The only question is if the Russians see the area of these regions under Ukrainian control as included and to be “liberated”.

    https://tass.com/world/1510733

  10. Fourth and Long says:

    A wry and sarcastic joke/wordplay, given his Nibs martial “arts” fame / notoriety, for his Judo black belts and prowess is that one of the main words for “miracle” in the Russian language is «Чудо» , which is transliterated into Latin letters as “Chudo”. In fact it’s proper pronunciation is closer to chew-da, that’s how a final o after a consonant is usually treated in the Russian language. Has something gone to his head again?

    Nyusha – Anna Vladimirovna Surochkina – was as a child a child prodigy of music and dance, and writes her own music, lyrics and choreographs her ensemble dances. I don’t recall the exact numbers but amongst her (seven?) sisters there are roughly 10 or 11 Olympic gold medals over the years. She has a song Выбирать Чудо (Vibirat Chudo) – Choose a Miracle and an album of the same name. Some of the songs are performed here, not that one though. Shoozamirrorcle, Shazaam.

    Нюша на (Nyusha on) – Big Love Show 2015
    https://youtu.be/5zBqN9pXHrQ

    Fight a nation where everyday someone picks up a rifle and shoots down people, sometimes 10, 19, 24 for no reason whatsoever? And our “musical artists” are dressed.. I’d rather not say. And the people in charge think it’s OK. You, Vladimir Putin, need to reconsider, awhile ago, the advisability of pitting decency and creative genius against indecency and depravity, especially in war. Just my opinion. I love your people. Do you?

    • Peter Williams says:

      It’s not correct to say that a final “o” after a consonant is treated as an “a”. It’s just that only one vowel can be stressed, and all other vowels are unstressed. The word что is pronounced as shto as the only vowel must be stressed. Молоко is usually pronounced as malako is most regions, but maloka in some areas. Due to the influence of radio and TV, Moscow stress patterns predominate, but groups such as old-believers retain much older stress patterns. Stress wanders in the declination of many words. Язык is a classic for wandering stress.

      • Fourth and Long says:

        I see you enjoy the performances. And even went so far as to penetrate to the primary thrust of the post. It’s proper spelling that I demand ! And pronunciation – goes without saying.

        Which one of us is a robot? No not rowboat.

  11. Notfakebot says:

    Erdogan says Putin wants to end it, but needs a dignified solution.

    What would count as dignified?

    If I had to guess, Ukraine would see all territory returned, except for Crimea, on conditions that favor Russian security concerns. That let’s Putin declare mission accomplished over Avoz and NATO expansion in Ukraine.

    Should we seek the “dignified” solution? Is Putin’s position in Russia so weak to warrant risks? I’m not quite convinced average Russian lacks conviction to support his position. And whatever becomes of Putin, I don’t think Russian stance will change favorably to us.

    • Bill Roche says:

      Your suggestion for a “dignified ending” is much the same as several correspondents suggested in May. Others, myself included, suggested giving up half the Donbas to Russia and Crimea. You know that old song “hey Johnnie one note, you sang …” I feel like Johnnie b/c I keep singing…” but that’s not what Russia wants”. She/Putin want a rtn to the Empire of 1914 and Ukraine is but one hurdle to that objective. Although I expected the mobilization from Putin I’m shocked by it. Still consider, you dont make a soldier w/a uniform. More soldiers requires more officers, training, weapons, fuel, organization. It doesn’t happen overnight. Further, one should remember that the Russian people have not been heard from. A Russian mother can be formidable when Putin comes calling for her son. As John Merryman said there is much yet to play out.

    • Mark Logan says:

      Notfake,

      I suspect it’s currently anything short of abject military defeat. Some concession of territory would be necessary. An extended stalemate might serve to produce that.

      Not dissimilar to Nixon’s “peace with honor”, an escalation designed to bring the other side to the table in mood to seriously seek an agreement or a truce. Putin doesn’t have the cards Nixon had to play though, and the cards he does have need time. I would suggest the Ukrainians keep moving if they can, lest the Russians somehow manage to get their s–t together. The Russians appear to be in survival mode, so get them running and keep them running.

  12. Jose says:

    walrus, great post!

    Three points:

    1. Better movie scene would be:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVEYcTyj1Do

    2. Putin’s game is lasting till winter:

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/09/20/auchtung-producer-prices-in-germany-jump-7-9-percent-in-august-to-45-8-percent-highest-jump-in-prices-in-history-of-german-economy/

    3. The war is spreading to Syria, Iraq, Armenia and soon the East Asian — remember 100,000 North Korean volunteers are coming. This could have been avoided if we kept Trumps policies in place. Now we are facing a possible showdown similar to this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snTaSJk0n_Y

    All Hail the New World Order

  13. John Merryman. says:

    The prize for whoever wins, is a rematch with the Taliban.
    By that time, we’ll all be bunch of goatherders with old hunting rifles.
    Except maybe the Europeans, who might need a few centuries to crawl back out of the caves.
    No more oligarchs though, just warlords.

    • Muralidhar Rao says:

      “No more oligarchs though, just warlords.” I think life would be better with those war lords because they will be local and it is but natural that there will be an opposing war lord around the corner.

      • John Merryman. says:

        Really just a matter of scale and the layers of complexity and bullshit that serves as shock absorbers for those in their niches.

  14. Peter Williams says:

    As for a calm unhurried mobilization, I suspect not. I am reminded of the opening scene in ”Enemy At The Gates”

    A historical movie as scripted by Dr Goebbels. Typical Western BS with little relationship to fact.

  15. Babeltuap says:

    Weaponizing the dollar was a fatal mistake. Not only did it not work, it galvanized what was a loosely held together BRICS. I don’t see how the UN stays together when winter sets in then spring, summer, fall and winter again in this energy situation. WEF said it would be difficult for Germany to break from Russian oil and gas by mid 2024. They will have to work something out with Russia and take the L.

    • jim ticehurst.. says:

      Babeltaup..
      You Have raised good Issues here…Specific..To The Point..

      I like the Fact that You Raised Weaponizing the The DOLLAR..Thats a
      Important Current Operational Tool Being Used by The Biden Administration
      In Many Ways…They are Going to Destroy the Dollar..Which will Make the
      Chinese and Russia Happy….Biden has been Spending Billions of Dollars..

      Throwing The Dollar at Anything His Can Buy..Making His Cadre Rich..
      Making millionaires out of Many…Undermining The National Security of the USA ,,Social..Economic and Military..
      The List of Ways They are Doing That..Is Very Long..Specific..And Dangerous.. All of Thier Policys are
      Destroying Our Culture and Economy and Standard of Living..and The
      Education System..They have Eleminated Our Constitutional Republics System of Checks And Balances..Everyone seems to E Want
      Absolute Power..

      Anyhow..The Dollar. Weaker every Day..Inflation..Cost of Living..and The National Debt 31 TRILLION Plus Dollars.. Its Going going Nuclear..

      What Happens Then..?? To Americans..To The EU Nations..To the World..
      and What will the NEW System Be..And How Soon Will a New Exchange System Develope..??

      There are Major Mega Disasters of all Kinds..Every Day..Foods scarcer..Commoditys…Last Year…Zelinsky said Ukraine Was The New Gateway to Europe For CHINA..It was a Big Story…China was Buying All Tech and Industry in Ukraine they Could.. Perhaps that Had V Putin Upset also..

      And …What Happens if Europe in This Region Has a Very Brutal Freezing
      Cold..Icy Winter..No Wood…No Coal Bricks for German Kitchens..and NO Transportation…Just RADICAL Transistion..
      JT

  16. Sam says:

    Western governments are not going to be intimidated by Putin and his mobilization and threats to go nuclear.

    Voices like those of the Estonian prime minister linked below will be heard in their deliberations.

    https://twitter.com/overdryven/status/1525916446307635200?s=21

    With Ukrainian success on the battlefield no Western European government will back down. The Biden administration ain’t gonna stop supplying the Ukrainian military with weapons and intelligence. And the Ukrainian military ain’t gonna be waiting around. They’ll continue to push their counter-offensive.

    Putin is acting now to bolster his military operations because of weakness.

    • Barbara Ann says:

      For the record here are some excerpts from Putin’s speech:

      The goal of that part of the West is to weaken, divide and ultimately destroy our country. They are saying openly now that in 1991 they managed to split up the Soviet Union and now is the time to do the same to Russia, which must be divided into numerous regions that would be at deadly feud with each other.

      Washington, London and Brussels are openly encouraging Kiev to move the hostilities to our territory. They openly say that Russia must be defeated on the battlefield by any means, and subsequently deprived of political, economic, cultural and any other sovereignty and ransacked.

      In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.

      It is our historical tradition and the destiny of our nation to stop those who are keen on global domination and threaten to split up and enslave our Motherland. Rest assured that we will do it this time as well.

      I would encourage you all to ask yourselves one question before answering the one posed by Walrus: If a US President gave such a speech explaining the existential threat facing America, would you question his willingness to use all means, including the nuclear deterrent, in order to prevail?

      http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/69390

      • John Merryman says:

        I don’t think the question really applies to America, quite so much as it does to Russia. If you look at Russia’s history with Europe for the last thousand plus years, it’s like Europe is the abusive mother and Russia is the bastard child. The Russians seem to want to think of themselves as European, because the culture is so complex and interesting. Yet when the Europeans have one of their epic hissy fits, they tend to kick east and it’s like the line of steel balls, where you swing the one on the one end and the one on the other end bounces out. Russia being the one that bounces out, after the Baltics and the Balkans get bounced around, pillaged, burnt out.
        Supposedly they all hate Russia, because communism, but the reality is they all hate each other. It’s just now popular to focus it on Russia, because America.
        Here is the question to really ask yourself; Would China, Russia, India, Iran, etc be all buddy buddy, if the West wasn’t having such a raging fit of narcissistic personality disorder?
        The fact is, reality is both nodes and networks. Organisms and ecosystems. This global one world order would have to be some pyramid, with you know who at the top and you know who at the bottom and everyone in between supposed to kiss up and kick down.
        It just doesn’t work that way forever. They are called empires and they fall apart, because the ones at the top can only sustain fear, not respect and those at the bottom eventually lose their fear.

        • John Merryman. says:

          The problem is also what brought down communism. The management class doesn’t feel compelled to take any feedback from the drones, because they are too stupid to know anything. So management just tells the bosses what they want to hear.
          After awhile the workers just tune out. “Quiet quitting.” As they used to say in the Soviet Union, “They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work.”

        • Fred says:

          John,

          In 1814, after Napoleon and the Grand Armee had been driven from Moscow the Russians were in Paris. They left. One hunred years later they were back, at the request of the French, with whom they fought side by side against the Germans. Now, one hunred years later….. well at least the French haven’t torn down the statue yet….
          https://www.eutouring.com/images_paris_statues_242.html

      • cobo says:

        Barbara Ann

        Why is that a valid question? In the age of nuclear weapons, does the villain making threats get special treatment. I say no. The US/NATO needs to engage in warfare, tactical nuclear, too. Strategic nuclear we offer our opponents a choice, lose on the battlefield and accept the circumstances or go strategic and lose your civilization, forever. I thought you weren’t up for the slave state thing. This is how it is faced, in an age of nuclear and other WMD.

        • walrus says:

          Cobo, a small edit: it’s not “ …..go strategic and lose your civilisation, forever.”

          It’s “. …..go strategic and lose OUR civilization forever.”

          There is no winner in thermonuclear war.

      • Sam says:

        Barbara Ann

        It would depend on if the POTUS had any credibility. If Trump gave that speech half the country especially those in the coastal urban centers would not buy it. If it was Biden the MAGA wouldn’t buy it.

        The question is how much credibility does Putin have in Russia? Now it is understandable that for Putin it is personally existential as he may not survive a war loss, but there is no evidence that the West wants to dismember Russia. They would encourage an ouster of Putin and a more western friendly political alignment but that’s as far as they’ll go.

        Putin has to make this sound existential to Russia when its actually his strategic error in invading Ukraine with a weak military. I believe we’re already seeing the Russian upper middle class and wealthy getting their sons out as fast as they can.

        The invasion of Ukraine is not a great patriotic war for many Russians. Just like Vietnam was for us.

        • John Merryman says:

          The West, aka, the financiers pulling the strings, are perfectly happy with dismembering itself!
          Like shipping most manufacturing abroad, leaving this trickle down service economy.
          If it seems like the politicians can’t get anything accomplished, keep in mind the one thing they do manage to do, no matter whatever else happens, is create more debt. Which the banks need to function.
          Even Austin recently said the military has enough funds, yet congress increased the defense budget.
          Money is a contract, where the asset is backed by a debt, so to store the money, you need the debt to back it. The secret sauce of capitalism is public debt backing private wealth.
          The military industrial complex is basically the trophy wife of the banks. They can spend all the money they want and no one gets taken out and shot, for all the strategic ineptitude, because the real purpose is to burn the money, so more can be borrowed.
          This first occurred to me, in 92, after G.H.W. Bush had been fussing about the debt and talking about the line item veto, Ross Perot commented that while everyone plays the markets, the really rich have their serious money in bonds.
          When it all falls apart, they will trade those piles of bonds for whatever remains of the public commons and we can all get back to being serfs and not worry our little heads about geopolitics.

        • different clue says:

          If the West can somehow achieve Putin’s ouster, the West won’t get a friendlier RussiaGov. The West will get a straight-up pure Duginist regime, either collective or strongman.

          ( “Duginist” . . . https://academic.oup.com/book/25370/chapter-abstract/192453256?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=true

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin )

          From that point on , the West will be able to ponder at leisure whether it really should have achieved Putin’s ouster, or not.

          • Barbara Ann says:

            different clue

            Yes. The Kremlin leadership’s decisions and messaging is becoming more closely aligned to Dugin’s ultra-nationalist philosophy, not less. The liberal pro-Western constituency is losing ground fast and guess who has been leaving in the latest wave of panic emigration. Momentum in the nationalist direction will become unstoppable at some point (it may be already) after which negotiation with them will be nigh on impossible.

      • Fred says:

        Barbara Ann,

        “If a US President gave such a speech explaining the existential threat facing America…”

        That would be climate change, or white supremacy, depending upon the day of the week, closeness of the pending election, and who Biden is speaking too.

  17. borko says:

    On a positive note, looks like the Russians released a number of foreigner fighters they captured and some even sentenced to death as “foreign mercenaries”.

    Americans, British among the released, as well as Swede, Moroccan, Croatian…

    They were sentenced to death by the separatist republics to discourage foreign volunteers from coming to fight for Ukraine. I guess since that failed miserably they had little use for them except as a gesture of good will.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/21/world/europe/ukraine-russia-prison-exchange-americans.html

    • Jovan P says:

      Not such a positive note for the Russian society when the government lets convicted (although not by Russian but by DNR courts) mercenaries go unpunished. Otoh, it shows that Putin is pragmatic, negotiable with and values Russian soldiers lives, ’cause this must have been a swap.

      If I were some of those mercenaries/volunteers, I’d thank God for the given second chance.

      • borko says:

        Jovan

        What were their crimes that deserve a death sentence. Coming to Ukraine to help fight off a foreign invader ?

        There are foreigners fighting for the Russian side as well. Should they also be executed if captured ?

        Maybe you just dislike the fact that a Croatian was among the released.

  18. Jovan P says:

    Colonel, may I ask a few personal/philosophical questions:
    1) what’s your stance on war?
    You often use the term art of war and write that there are no bloodless wars like civilians imagine. Laymen think of war as a terrible evil, there is even a ,,curse’’- let he who wishes war, have war in his house. Otoh, from a soldiers view, in the Bible (Cor. 13:4) when the soldiers come and ask St John the Baptist what shall they do, he doesn’t answer that their profession is not in God’s favour, but instead gives them strict advices how to perform their duty.
    2) what is the purpose of war?
    Once you wrote that it’s all about winning. Do you mean winning on the battlefield or winning on the diplomatic table or both, because some wars are won on the battlefield and later lost with bad diplomacy and vice versa. And some victories, be it of battles or of wars, are Pyrrhic in their nature, although maybe necessary at the current moment.
    3) does the woke culture have the potential to weaken the West?
    Some non-Americans think that the biggest danger to the US army and society and other western countries is the woke culture and not the Russian zircon missiles and Chinese aircraft carriers, because it’s targets are the future generations, while some others think that this is a kind of fashion which will pass with time.
    4) is it for a soldier important if a war is ,,just’’ or not?
    Does it effect the moral and the combat readiness of the troops?

    Sorry if I ask too much and thank you in advance.

  19. LeaNder says:

    V. Putin has announced the mobilisation of Russias reserves. According to Putin, this will be a deliberate, unhurried, process.

    Can we call itsome type of surge?

    “Blasphemous” denigrator Andrew J. Bacevich:

    Russia’s underperforming military (and ours)
    Why do Russian failures in Ukraine attract so much smug commentary, while American military underperformance gets written off?

    Americans spend a lot of time these days trying to figure out what makes Vladimir Putin tick. I don’t pretend to know, nor do I really much care. I would say this, however: Putin’s plunge into Ukraine confirms that he learned nothing from the folly of post-9/11 U.S. military policy.

    Will we, in our turn, learn anything from Putin’s folly? Don’t count on it.

    • Bill Roche says:

      I do not think US military under performance (funny thing, Germans combine under and performance) is written off. In fact I think the press harps on it. My wife says I am growing too sensitive in my old age; meh..

      • LeaNder says:

        Bill, maybe I should recall one or the other comment of yours. I ask since this response reminds me very, very much of our host.

        You have a background in the military? Actually I think Bacevich has.

  20. Sam says:

    Desperate Russian wives threaten to break their husbands’ BONES so they are unfit to join war as thousands of men scramble to flee country with airports crammed and huge traffic jams after conscripts are given ‘four hours to pack and leave’

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11238049/Desperate-Russian-wives-threaten-break-husbands-BONES-unfit-join-war.html

    The poor suckers who don’t have the connections and resources to flee Russia will pay the butcher’s bill for Putin’s fantasy.

    • cobo says:

      My wife of 30+ years is a Cambodian war refugee. She grew up in a little village a bicycle ride from South Vietnam. I joined the Army in 1976. She has heard more bullets and shrapnel ripping through the leaves than any of my Vietnem Vet friends. Her family are not warrior types. One of her brothers had his leg broken due to a bomb blast. It kept him out of Pol Pot’s army, forced conscription. They all, the whole family, even though teachers etc, (both old and new) survived the whole damn thing. War is horrific and terrible, but my family has a military background, and I prefer to run at my enemies’ throats. And I have love and respect for those that must fight. F’n crazy, right …

  21. MT_Bill says:

    Updates on the economic front of this war. Basically looks like a race between how fast the Ukranians can force a Russian withdrawal from the battlefield vs. how fast the Russians can force a German capitulation to sanctions.

    It’s amazing to watch Germany willingly de-industrialize. But at least they’ll make their goals for decarbonizing their economy to fight climate change.

    https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/rezession-und-die-angst-vor-dem-absturz-wie-schlimm-wird-es-in-deutschland-a-ad8f5e71-6c5c-44cd-ba48-44bd014d4d27

    • different clue says:

      If they choose to interpret their freely chosen self-deindustrialization that way . . . as a sacrifice offered up to the cause of carbon skyflooding reduction . . . the joke will be on them.

      Why? Because the production they cease from producing will be produced in China instead, at twice as much carbon skyflooding per unit of production as in Germany. So German de-industrialization will vastly increase the overall world rate of carbon skyflooding, because China will double the German amount of carbon skyflooding by taking over all of Germany’s production at twice the carbon skyflooding per unit of production.

      Germany will not be laughing. China will laugh laugh laugh till global steamering makes large parts of China uninhabitable. That would mean that the long joke will be on China as well, in the end.

  22. Barbara Ann says:

    Walrus

    Even before Putin’s speech we had this, which has just been brought to my attention:

    STRATCOM also took steps to evolve past the traditional nuclear deterrence theory of “mutually assured destruction,” which posits that any use of nuclear weapons would result in retaliatory use and total annihilation of all parties—and has prevented nuclear war for almost 75 years.

    That’s because early in the invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested Moscow could respond to any Western defense of Ukraine with nuclear weapons. U.S. officials worry, though don’t expect, that could mean Russia using smaller warheads in limited numbers on specific targets, rather than launching the global thermonuclear war they had feared for decades.

    “Moscow is using both implicit and explicit nuclear coercion,” [head of STRATCOM Adm. Chas] Richard said.“They’re trying to exploit a perceived deterrence gap, a threshold below which they mistakenly believe they may be able to employ nuclear weapons,” such as using their tactical, shorter range nukes.

    https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/08/us-military-furiously-rewriting-nuclear-deterrence-address-russia-and-china-stratcom-chief-says/375725/

    I was going to respond to commenter ‘cobo’ here and suggest he was MAD, but it appears I had missed the news that we have “evolve[d] past” the deterrence doctrine which for 3 generations has been all that separated war from Armageddon. We are clearly in Dr Strangelove territory now.

    If anyone wants to wager on the nukes flying before the end of the year I’ll take the bet – if only because you won’t be around to collect if I lose.

    • Fred says:

      Barbara Ann,

      I’ll take your bet. I think there won’t be nukes flying. How about $25, Bidenflation being what it is. Donation to the tipjar on, shall I dare say it, J6? From your linked article I see that Admiral Richard served, just like dear old me, on the NR-1 (way back in the dark ages of the submarine fleet). Speaking of submarines, perhaps he should have done something about repair capabilities before moving on to re-write strategic deterence doctrine. To quote the people at Heritage:

      “The Navy’s attack submarines have also evolved, but the dry docks that service them have not: 17 dry docks can service older Los Angeles-class submarines, but only 12 can accommodate their replacement, the Virginia-class submarine, and only seven can service the newest Block V Virginia-class submarine…”

      Given the abysmal performance of US Navy leadership in the past decade+ it would be helpful to fix the basics before pushing for combat use of tactical nuclear weaponry as a strategy. Our LCS class can neither “fight nor run” to quoke Jackie Fisher, we don’t have an improvement to the cruiser class we are decommissioning, we lost an LHD carrier because an E-2 got emotional and started a fire in a paint locker; and it’s taken years to get the new Ford class CVN ‘certified’ for air operations. That doesn’t look like effective leadership or strategic planning to me. At least anti-ship missles still seem to work, as the Moskva proved.
      https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2021/03/19/the-us-navys-shaky-plan-to-save-its-shipyards-is-getting-overhauled/

      • jim ticehurst.. says:

        Fred..
        I Agree with your concerns…I am very Aware of Drydock/Shipyard Activity….Todays Headlines in the Paper Are About the
        USS Nimitz…Which just Got out of Long overhaul in The Shipyard.. The Nimitz got as Far as San Diego on its Final Tests..The COMPTUEX..When it Discovered That J5 Jet Fuel
        Was in its Fresh Water Potable Water System..
        Prior to This It Had Water Coming Thriugh the Shafts into The Engine Room..(Tampering..?)

        I am Concerned About the Rush To Decommission So Many
        Usable Ships..Cruiser Classes..and Submarines..With So
        Many Hostilitys Rapidly Developing.. Add Those to
        Other Matters…Like Draining Our Strategic Stockpiles Etc…
        Messy…Look up The Nimitz Matter..NIS should Investigate.
        JT

  23. Al says:

    BBC reporting there’s a 3 mile line of cars at Georgia border with Russians leaving.

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