RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 13 MAY 2021 by Patrick Armstrong

VICTORY DAY. Parade. Putin speech. “Unfortunately, attempts are made to deploy a large part of Nazi ideology and the ideas of those who were obsessed with the delusional theory of their own supremacy.” Not, apparently, visible to Blinken; I guess he wasn’t in Lviv. But at least someone in the USA notices.

RUSSIA-CHINA: THEIR VIEW. In 1995 48% of Russians thought relations with China were good, now 75% do. Beijing is becoming more blunt: “The combined power of China and Russia is far greater than that of the former Soviet Union-Eastern Europe bloc… If anyone tries to ride roughshod over this fact and pushes China and Russia to join forces in a desperate fight, that must be its nightmare,”

RUSSIA-CHINA: US VIEW. China and Russia’s Dangerous Convergence. The authors’ solution: “We instead suggest a far more modest and incremental approach designed to demonstrate to the people around Putin the benefits of a more balanced and independent Russian foreign policy.” Washington hair pullers are some of history’s dumbest strategists: they think a few soft words will change reality.

HISTORY. Russia’s history under the communists was extensively re-written and re-re-written. (Another crossover parallel in this post Cold War world?) The official line today is, I think, the rational and truthful one of admitting everything. Paul Robinson has a piece on a monument just opened in Sevastopol (where the defeated Whites evacuated in 1920) of Mother Russia and both of her sons – White and Red.

“BANKRUPT” RUSSIA. Getting on for 600 billion USD in the kitty.

EASTER. Service at the new Armed Forces Main Church.

VACCINE. Sputnik Light, a single-dose vaccine against COVID-19, has been registered.

MH-17. A dispassionate discussion of the improbabilities of the standard story and the Dutch investigation. But propaganda works by leaving an impression after the details have been forgotten.

FAKE NEWS: NAVALNIY. His doctor disappears!!! Murdered!!! Hit Squad!!! Found safe and sound.

FAKE NEWS: VACCINE. Is Russia’s Covid vaccine anything more than a political weapon? (The begging bit at the end tells us: “Since 1821, tens of millions have placed their trust in our quality reporting, turning to us in moments of crisis, uncertainty, solidarity and hope.”)

FAKE NEWS: PIPELINE. Federal agencies order pipeline to repair its many leaks, saying that, given its “failure history” continued operation would pose an “integrity risk to public safety” in March. Reported that a cyberattack forces it to shut down in May. FBI blames a hacker group. Biden says no evidence that Russia was involved but “there’s evidence that the actors’ ransomware is in Russia [and] They have some responsibility to deal with this”. And we all know the US “intelligence community” is a reliable source. (PS, the last “Russian” group was actually from Ukraine). Ah well, easier to blame Russia than take responsibility for your rotting infrastructure. Will Bellingcat find his GRU couple visited here?

FAKE NEWS: SYRIA. “The result: The letter was never sent, MPs were never informed of the known corruption, and Dutch taxpayers were not able to learn that Mayday mishandled enormous sums of money it received from numerous donor governments, including their own.” So I guess the money that didn’t go to guns for jihadists, or spiffy never-used coveralls, was stolen at source. Le Mesurier admitted fraud and then was (auto?) defenestrated.

PORTENTS OF THE END. International poll with much to chew on. The USA is seen as a greater threat to democracy than Russia or China. There’s less satisfaction in the West than we’re told. Compare USA and Russia – numbers a lot closer than the Western media would have you believe. Rather amazed that most people think their governments handled COVID-19 well, though. Meanwhile ex military in France and USA don’t like the way things are going and who’s doing it.

NATO EXERCISE. Big NATO exercise is underway. Usual boasting and chest-thumping from Washington – defensive, transparent, interoperable. (Not the least of the delights of the present US Administration is the return of old favourites.) While it may not prove to be the farce that Scott Ritter expects it to be, no one who just witnessed what Russia can mass without months of pre-preparation will be impressed. (Something tells me though, that Ritter’s right in drawing our attention to Albania – bet there won’t be much transparency about something with such a chance of being a Charlie Foxtrot.)

USA-UKRAINE. I agree with Diesen here: Washington just told Kiev that it won’t back it. Another example of what you might call the Kurdish Lesson: Washington won’t be there at the ultimate moment. Escobar has more exciting things that he’s heard.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

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46 Responses to RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 13 MAY 2021 by Patrick Armstrong

  1. Deap says:

    Will Putinism survive Putin? Who or what will replace him, as he slides down his mortal coil.

  2. JohninMK says:

    That was a comprehensive report. Great stuff.

  3. Christian J. Chuba says:

    It looks like Russia is having production problems w/Sputnik V.
    I’ve been ignoring the unreliable western MSM, hate mail and monitoring the daily death toll (morbid but to me that’s the bottom line).
    7_day_moving_average_Russia_vs_Israel
    Israel vaccinated their population before the end of February and their death rate plummeted. Russia’s death toll has remained stubbornly consistent despite being at least 3 weeks ahead of U.S. vaccine development.
    I hope that we in the U.S. are content w/just talking down their vaccine and not sabotaging production. Sputnik V is using the slightly older ‘adenovirus viral vector vaccine’ technology. While that is easier to transport, it could be more difficult to produce than the new mRNA vaccines.

    Maybe the mRNA vaccines are the greatest thing since sliced bread. Both vaccine types are conceptually the same. They manage to get a number of your cells to manufacture something that is on the virus so that your immune system will learn how to kill it when it sees the real virus. If you buy into that concept, the mRNA implementation looks more elegant. What could be more precise than using your body’s native messaging system between cells to control that production. The adenovirus is a stripped down, neutered virus that smashes into your cells to accomplish that. Not bad for a first generation approach but perhaps it makes it more time consuming because you need to culture a virus.
    [BTW I’m not a biology guy, I’m a computer guy who reads and then has to create pictures for himself to understand things, I don’t mean to sound pompous. I cannot function in any other way]

  4. Christian J. Chuba says:

    I saw this on townhall, Leah Barkoukis compared a new U.S. Army recruitment video and one made by Russia. You have to watch them. You will not be disappointed.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1392707508968386566 The U.S. video, cartoon animation, ‘this story starts with a girl who grew up in California and was raised by two mommies … ‘ I have not ruled out the possibility that his is actually a parody.

    https://vimeo.com/334102304 – The Russian video. If I was younger, I would rather be in this army and I bet I’m not the only one.

    • Thanks for this. I’d seen the US one but not the Russian one. Some years ago there were a pair but they’ve disappeared. The Russian one was girlfriend, trees, defence, girlfriend and some loud bangs and jumping out of airplanes, girlfriend and trees. The American one was “you think you’re tough but are you army tough?”
      Clear difference: the one was recruiting patriots to protect girlfriends and Russian trees, the other was recruiting gang members.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Unreal. Mind numbingly bizarre. The American one says: hey out there, are you a young woman barely out of childhood who was raised by two lesbians? Then our armed forces are for you!

      I thought it was a humorous skit or product of an adversary’s disinformation campaign purposed to ridicule the nation.

      The gay rainbow flag hangs next to the stars and stripes on United States embassies — so I won’t even bother doing any “due diligence.” It’s all too likely legit.

    • Fourth and Long says:

      Here’s a recent military recruitment video from China :

      China military recruitment:
      https://youtu.be/l_qr-4AKM18

      I nearly felt chills. Notice – family — wife (as in a real wife), children (the soldier’s children), nation. Well, the US recruiters don’t fall for that nonsense. They know that human motivations are much more deeply rooted in primal urges like the unsatiable desires for purple hair, pierced nipples especially men’s, full body tatoos and thirty nine choices of chilled pre-mixed overpriced entirely non-nutritious synthetic latte drinks with optional avocado toast preferably gluten-free. And the latest model iPhone.

  5. Ed Lindgren says:

    Mr. Armstrong provides a video of the Victory Day parade at the beginning of today’s sitrep.

    Here is another one:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IG3LAUonvCc

    I encourage readers to take a look at the first three minutes of this video. The ‘Killer’ is greeting the very elderly military veterans of World War II who are in the reviewing stand prior to the beginning of the parade in Red Square.

    Biden would have been frantically looking for his face mask!

    • J says:

      Notice how Putin was checking on their elderly welfare, and then Putin notices one of them getting the chills. Putin then got up and re-arranged the WWII veteran’s coat where it would protect him from the chilly air. I noticed how from time to time Putin’s gaze was towards the veterans and their welfare. Biden would have never done such a thing.

      Biden is a selfish, self-centered screamer bully who IMO should have never been allowed in the halls of the Congress, let alone the Presidency.

    • Cortes says:

      The scenes with veterans following the wreath-laying ceremony from around the 1:25:00 mark of the RT coverage

      https://youtu.be/kgSymqdGVF0

      are very touching. Although I imagine that the security detail was a bit nervous with the press for photos and the “billets doux” passed. I noticed one being passed on to a very imposing looking guy.

      • English Outsider says:

        Impressive and at times genuinely touching, but I watched with increasing unease and a few minutes into the parade googled, Are there horses in the modern Russian army?

        Apparently not. Worse, further googling showed that the USA was in similar plight –

        https://eu.press-citizen.com/story/entertainment/go-iowa-city/2016/03/21/united-states-cavalry-army-unsaddled-its-last-horse/82098652/

        The Chinese still keep a few but nothing you could mount a General on. Seems not even the Canadians have any and I thought they were big on cavalry. Looks like the day of the horse is well and truly over. So Shoigu was forced to walk or hitch a ride in a limo.

        It’s only us who still do the thing in style. Might be civil if we rented the Household Cavalry out to the less fortunate armies of the world for their parades. It’d raise the tone overall and, though it’s a mercenary consideration, fill in what looks to be a massive hole in our current defence budget.

        • Deap says:

          The Canadian Mounties are now the Canadian Walkies? Do they still “get their man” riding skateboards.

        • The Twisted Genius says:

          The only mounted unit we have is the caisson platoon of the 1/3 Infantry Regiment, the Old Guard. I remember seeing their stables at Fort Myers. My father talked about the retirement parade in 1946 for an old Gunnery Sergeant from the China Marines mounted detachment. That detachment rode a mixture of Mongolian ponies and western horses until the late 30s. I had an uncle in the Lithuanian Uhlan Regiment in the 20s and 30s. We also have a family legend that our ancestors rode as Lithuanian light cavalrymen with the Tatars of Jalal al-Din Khan ibn Tokhtamysh at the Battle of Grunwald to defeat and pretty much destroy the knights of the Teutonic Order.

          • Leith says:

            That China Marine mounted detachment was damn small. It got started ad hoc with 15 men during the 1912 Peking riots to protect American citizens that lived or worked outside the Tatar Wall. It never grew much beyond 30 men in later years, excluding a caisson section and horse drawn ambulance and supply wagon. Much of their tack was left over from a mounted detachment of the 9th Infantry. A squadron of Russian Cossacks had earlier been in Peking and competed in races with the 9th. But they had left in 1904 to fight at Liaoyang and Mukden with General Rennenkampf.

  6. Fred says:

    So Blinken wasn’t just channeling his inner “Reagan at Bitburg”?

  7. ISL says:

    Always enjoy your updates,

    While the US cannot keep up with is decaying infrastructure, 45 billion dollar maintenance backlog.

    https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/rail/

    Russia is investing 84 billion in high speed rail and new track in the next five years. Given the dramatic increases in BRI trade already occurring by the land route, these investments will definitely have big paybacks.

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/opportunities-in-russias-rail-market—russia-is-expected-to-invest-84-billion-into-railway-projects-by-2026-301064319.html

    including high speed rail:

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/01/20/helsinki-eyes-new-6-hour-bullet-train-to-moscow-a68962

    though interestingly, Russia is following European High speed rail, not Chinese

    Of course a dollar of US infrastructure investment seems to buy very very little.

    China builds a bridge almost 2000 feet above the valley floor in 3 years for 200 million.

    tinyurl.com/42k4jkdd

    and Russia built the 19 km Kerch Strait Bridge for 3 billion and two years.

    Meanwhile CalTrans widened the US 101 Bridge from Oxnard to Ventura for 500 million dollars and took ten years.

  8. J says:

    Here’s a video of how China’s CCP and Xi have been restructuring the PLA. The film is in part pro-CCP propaganda, but IMO it also shows intelligence gems of how and where the PLA have been gaining their strength and cutting their fat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMQ3pMcce4w

    • Important I think to remember that the Chinese military from the time of Lord McCartney’s visit up to CP takeover was pretty much of a joke. But PLA comes from a history of victory and endurance.

    • After about 25 minutes of the video I have two impressions
      1) China is getting prepared to fight a really big war
      2) there has been a lot of input from Russia in doing so

      • J says:

        Thats why I wrote a piece on the Colonel’s blog back in August 2020 asking is war inevitable between the U.S. and China.
        I see a hard push by Xi to get the PLA ready for like you said ‘a really big war’.
        And sad to say I see both the Pentagon, CIA, State,and White House all asleep at the switch.

      • J says:

        What really gets me is that our Federal and State governments are allowing the Chinese CCP to purchase land here in the U.S.. China has purchased in the Houston area and are expanding to build to handle their aircraft that can be quickly flipped into handling their military aircraft. This particular gem comes from a friend of mine who frequently travels to Houston and back.

        China has been making purchases in cash for land near areas vital to U.S. national security. One place in particular they’re building right under our nation’s IC’s noses, and nothing is being done about it. They can’t be that blind, deaf, and dumb. It seems that D.C. has forgot all about the CCP purchases south of the U.S. border.

        I see China working on both tactical and strategic choke points in both the Northern, and Southern American Hemispheres.

        • You think China wants to attack the US?

          • Deap says:

            China just did that — with the “covid” cooties.

            Though it was our own media along with the Democrat party that supplied its most deadly “gain in function” – a reason to weaponize Orangemanbad.

          • J says:

            Ever since Xi had a run in with Trump, he has been moving hard to cover all his bases, including putting his size 25 CCP shoe up the backsides of his generals (little g) and admirals (little a). Xi has been working with Russia to modernize his military hardware, which is some ways has been causing consternation with Russian arms makers with their Chinese reverse-engineering and copying Russian hardware. My personal take is that Putin would rather have as a partner the U.S. than China, but thanks to the Bormann group that has taken hold of both the U.S. and U.K. governments with all the corporations that Bormann set up before the end of WWII. It is that Bormann group influence IMO is a major part of the bedrock of the anti-Russian phobia that is leading U.S., and U.K.’s policies towards both Putin and Russia today. The NATO matter is another story in and of itself.

        • Barbara Ann says:

          J

          If you have enough info to do a post on China’s strategic purchases in the Americas I’d be interested to read it. Being asleep at the switch is one thing, but does this go further than negligence on the part of State and Federal authorities?

          • Deap says:

            Ojai Valley, California is home to several expensive residential prep schools who recently were overwhelmed by CCP student enrollments.

            These young people ironically were sent to these prep schools by their wealthy CCP parents in order to experience the “wider world”. Only to find they were still encased within a majority of their CCP peers, but now in the splendid isolation of this lovely California valley.

  9. J says:

    Patrick,
    What’s your take on the origins of the anti-Russian fever that has gripped D.C. and London foreign policy?

  10. J says:

    Me thinks that this one has the ‘attention’ of both China and Russia:

    Biggest Navy Exercise in a Generation Will Include 25,000 Personnel Across 17 Time Zones

    https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/05/21/biggest-navy-exercise-generation-will-include-25000-personnel-across-17-time-zones.html

  11. J says:

    Patrick,

    With your permission, may I introduce the readership to some uplifting music and song. This is a part of Russia that most in the West never see. With all the dreariness in the world today, IMO music and song can uplift one’s spirit when it’s needed most.

    БЕЛЫЙ ДЕНЬ. 3 в 1: “Деревенька”, “Галина”, “Бабье лето”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-t9hL8fFoc

  12. J says:

    The Russian government are continuing with their Project 955A nuclear powered submarine with its armada of onboard armaments.
    Project 955A is also known as Kynaz Oleg. It’s slated for sea trials next month (June). The Kynaz Oleg is also known as a nation killer because of its offensive armaments.

    https://tass.com/defense/1293481
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_submarine_Knyaz_Oleg

  13. J says:

    Since the PTB hopes to use Ukraine flashpoint for their WWIII aspirations has fizzled due to Putin outfoxing them, they’re trying to start it in Belarus. Hopefully the Lukashenko Putin meet will prevent such from happening. Their face to face is scheduled for May 28.

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