RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 24 SEPTEMBER 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

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RUSSIA AND COVID. As far as I can see it's pretty much under control in Russia. CNN has a (surprisingly) intelligent discussion; counting is everything (vide: with or from?) and the Russians are stricter on their counting. They also treat early with an effective drug. Meanwhile in the USA and UK, supposedly the best prepared… I recommend Stephen Walt's essay again: The Death of American Competence. And I reiterate: 2020 will go down as the year the West lost its mojo.

MEDICAL. Russian researchers claim to have found a powerful new antibiotic.

HYPERSONIC. Putin said it was the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2002 that forced Russia to start designing hypersonic weapons. One of the chief designers, refuting stories that Russia stole the technology from the USA, said research began long ago.

LENIN. A recent poll finds 40% want Lenin's body out of Red Square and buried; 22% want it left there and 17% think it should stay there until last person alive in communist days is gone. Putin's line has always been that it will be moved when a majority wants it so we're not there yet. (I was premature nine years ago). Will the whole of the Communist pantheon on the wall – Stalin and all – have to go too? One of these days…

KAVKAZ-20. Big international exercise. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the 80,000 – Russians tend to count everyone involved, even if at a desk in Moscow.

OOPS. Russian cop who planted marijuana to get his arrest numbers up, becomes an arrest number.

RUSSIA INC. Now the second-largest car market in Europe after Germany.

RT AMUSES ITSELF. Trump's new job post-November. Fun to watch the Trumputin conspiracists' reactions; a humourless bunch.

RUSSIA BASHING. Easy money. Someone should develop a program. Putin's latest victim X, one of a series DATA DUMP. Putin attacks Rules-Based International Order DATA DUMP. And so on.

NAVALNIY. I can't be bothered keeping up with the latest nonsense – John Helmer follows the twists and turns and asks the questions. EG: why would Navalniy thank a diabetes and kidney specialist?

VENEZUELA. It appears that Venezuela's large oil tanker has been switched to Russian ownership. An interesting move. Presumably to reduce the chance of US piracy.

IRAN. A Russian official suggests Moscow will sell arms to Iran as soon as embargo ends on 18 October. I'll bet they're discussing details now. Let me predict: air defence and EW will lead the list.

BELARUS. Still demos. Lukashenka sworn in. EU fails to agree on sanctions.

YEAH, WHATEVER I. Facts just don't matter: re-type whatever "the sources" tell you as long as it's anti-Trump, -Russia, -Iran or -China. Bounties. Trump insulting soldiers. US Ambassador.

YEAH, WHATEVER II. Fine example of what passes for reporting in the USA these days: first the fakery then, at the end, the reality. Finally, in the very last para: "Russia has an exceptionally good track record on managing clinical trials". But who reads to the end?

YEAH, WHATEVER III. "C.I.A. Reasserts Putin Is Likely Directing Election Influence Efforts to Aid US President Trump". And then we're told "The C.I.A. has moderate confidence in its analysis… in part because the intelligence community appears to lack intercepted communications or other direct evidence… ". Now read this and wonder what's going on: "Everyone who works here knows that analytic objectivity is beyond reproach".

THE DEATH OF IRONY. "US must demand equal access to Russian airwaves."

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. Macron insists Europe will not compromise over Iran.

BIDEN/UKRAINE. Son of the man at the head of the table? Nothing to see here; move along.

UNGA SPEECHES. Interesting to compare; Putin and Xi about cooperation; Trump boasting and hostility (par for the course – here's Obama in 2015.) Sure it's PR from the first two but effective in comparison. The so-called Rules-Based International Order is dying of failure.

NEW NWO. I note that Beijing is becoming much tougher in its statements (check this video). Moscow's countermoves are also becoming more direct – as we see with the latest moves on the Venezuelan tanker and arms sales to Iran. I guess they feel that the correlations of forces is shifting. I think they're right: the USA seems to be heading for really dramatic domestic problems. Lots of talk, anyway, from both sides.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

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10 Responses to RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 24 SEPTEMBER 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

  1. Avatar Hick Canuck says:

    I guess it could be self-consistent to say
    1) that Soviet research began before Obama was in short pants, and
    2) that Russia committed to taking up that research after ABM abandoned.
    In your view is recent announcement of Russia / Syria cooperation on nuclear energy simply trolling Pompeus Maximus and his machinery? Maybe not RF’s M.O., which would suggest something more substantive.

  2. Avatar Jim says:

    Yeah Whatever IV
    Speculation ran wild [in some quarters] on motive to destroy Flynn/
    Seemed to me investigating the general was a means to an end:
    1] to keep any investigation of that leak from occurring; and
    2] thus destroying him was the means, a distraction.
    The criminal leak — of the Kislyak/Flynn late Dec. 2016 phone calls — to Washington Post sent to that paper on or about Jan. 6 2017, and published in an Ignatius column Jan. 12 2017 had major legal exposure issues.
    MAJOR.
    To this day, not investigated, and thus no one charged with those crimes.
    Today we find out Obama leaked that. Officially, according to a court filing, in Flynn case [based on redacted email message it was WH staff [“presidential daily briefing staff” “white house senior” staff, etc.] that leaked the calls to WAP.
    Redacted emails apparently was in possession of Mueller’s Special Counsel’s Office SCO.
    Link to that WAP column is below.
    Ignatius posed four questions in it on Jan. 12, 2017.
    Let’s look at his third one again.
    [[Question 3: What discussions has the Trump team had with Russian officials about future relations?]]
    Ignatius asked this while in [recent] possession of the leaked Kislyak/Flynn phone call, compliments of Obama.
    For what it is worth, this column states — following this question: [[According to a senior U.S. government official, Flynn phoned Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak several times on Dec. 29. . .]]
    I’ll make this sentence clear, now: [[According to President Obama, Flynn phoned Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak several times on Dec. 29. . .]]
    Had this column read accurately with this fact, at the time – which is a basic journalistic and routine function — what would public reaction have been [at the time]?
    Perhaps it would have made obvious Obama, revealing classified information about a telephone call with the incoming national security advisor who is a three star general, made obvious the sitting president was up to no good.
    Obama would have looked like an idiot, in other words.
    In other words: the whole thing would have been exposed on Jan. 12, 2017 for what it was — sedition against the president-elect.
    And the chief Obama butt licker Sally Yates did all she could to protrude this into endless scandal, —-to hide the actual scandal, of them and their comrades.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-did-obama-dawdle-on-russias-hacking/2017/01/12/75f878a0-d90c-11e6-9a36-1d296534b31e_story.html
    -30-

  3. Avatar Serge says:

    Suspicious death of Tesak in the labor colony where he is serving his sentence. What an arc for this guy over the past decade and a half, can’t say I’m too surprised.

  4. Avatar J says:

    Russia is blasting both D.C.and the E.U. for meddling in Belarus internal affairs, as neither one is recognizing Lukashenko as the legitimate President of Belarus.
    The Kremlin has a point. D.C.’s ramblings are like the pot calling the kettle black. Both the E.U. and D.C. are calling the demonstrations as the will of the Belarus population.
    Excuse me, how can they call demonstrations of just over 100,000 as the will of the Belarusian population, especially since their 2019 census shows them just under 9,500,000 in population (2020 drops just a hair). Both D.C. and the E.U. need to retake their classes in math, and get their own houses in order.
    Russia Blasts US & EU “Meddling” In Belarus As Both Declare Lukashenko Is Not President
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-blasts-us-eu-meddling-belarus-after-not-recognizing-lukashenko-president

  5. Avatar J says:

    NATO jets have changed war-game tactics, now routinely simulate MISSILE STRIKES against Russia – Defense Minister Shoigu
    https://on.rt.com/aptc

  6. Avatar J says:

    This one appears to have gotten the Kremlin’s attention
    SAM System That Guards Washington DC Just Made Its Lowest Ever Intercept Of A Mock Cruise Missile
    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36728/sam-system-that-guards-washington-dc-just-made-its-lowest-ever-intercept-of-a-mock-cruise-missile

  7. Avatar J says:

    Tikhanovskaya starts forming shadow govt of Belarus
    https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/70018/

  8. Avatar J says:

    Turkish servicemen present in Azerbaijan, directing military actions – Pashinyan
    https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/70014/

  9. Avatar Keith Harbaugh says:

    I am no expert on Russia, but even so the following, by John Hulsman, looks to me like an accurate analysis of Putin:
    The Hill: The world according to Putin | TheHill.
    https://thehill.com/opinion/international/518964-the-world-according-to-putin
    Does anyone disagree?
    Responding to that analysis, the U.S., IMO, should not waste its limited resources fighting the objectives attributed to Putin that are described in that article.
    And if you do believe that it is the job of U.S. to enforce the value system you call “human rights”, why focus your attention on Russia’s neighbors?
    Clearly there are areas in Africa and Asia where the situation is worse.

  10. Avatar J says:

    How much U.S. taxpayer money is being spent or wasted given your perspective by both State and CIA on the ‘shadow government’ of Belarus’s dissenter Tikhanovskaya?
    Such an operation will go nowhere IMO now that Lukashenko has cemented his Presidential position. Expect to see more and closer cooperation between Minsk and Moscow in their Military and Intelligence matters. Tikhanovskaya has become to use the term mildly, ‘loose change’.

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