“Vladimir Putin has secretly approved a law that will send a further one million men to fight in Ukraine, a Russian newspaper reported on Thursday.
“If true, the target is more than three times higher than the 300,000 number that had previously been circulated and is likely to exacerbate fears of conscription among ordinary Russians that have seen mass protests and people massing at borders to leave the country.
Novaya Gazeta, an independent Russian newspaper-in-exile, on Thursday quoted an unnamed Kremlin source saying that the target number of one million men is written in Point 7 of Mr Putin’s mobilisation order – a part that was redacted from publication.
The unnamed Kremlin officials said the number had been revised several times and that the Russian military insisted on it being classified.
When asked about the redacted figure, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that it contains the mobilisation target but cited Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu statement on Wednesday that Moscow was only going to call up 300,000 people.”
Comment: Fleeing to Mongolia? I thought that Putin was no longer a KGB man in his mind. I was wrong. He does not understand that Russians are not going to continue to accept being herded to death and mutilation in Ukraine? He is a fool. He can’t understand that ordinary Russians will not allow themselves to be cattle pushed into the slaughterhouse in Ukraine to be butchered by actual soldiers, Ukrainian soldiers. He is a fool.
He may actually be crazy enough to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. pl
Putin ‘passes secret law to send one million Russians to fight in Ukraine’ (telegraph.co.uk)
Some of the photos I’ve seen of authorities in Russia grabbing young men reminds me of the old term ‘press gangs’. Vlad may have a bigger problem at home now than he has with the Ukes.
Or maybe not if these videos of Yakutia and Chechnya are any guide –
https://t.me/Nashazemla/25941
https://t.me/sewerfsefsd/8387
Interesting. The first link shows many young men. The second seems to be older looking men. Both videos are around the perimeters of Russia. The major cities more heavily populated are probably where the most social strife is found.
From comment section on 2nd link :
—-
Yakuts are hunters, snipers. Good luck to you, warriors! Come back with a victory!
——-
Says top video is from Chechnyia. Most of the fighters in the US armed forces come from a small number of mostly rural states, predominantly in the South. I don’t know how sexual & gender diversity have altered that or not.
To the Russians, this is an existential threat.
This is now a war between Russia and NATO using Ukrainian soldiers. It will end by some event or events (some WMD use?) leading to a ceasefire and freezing of the frontline, similar to Korea/Golan heights …
The million man thing is probably a deliberate leak to reaffirm that NATO ’s support of Ukraine is an existential threat and that Russia will not back down.
This is an existential threat to Putin not the Russians. Many don’t want to fight for him.
This “existential threat” thing is what I keep wondering about. No doubt it is real to Putin and his cronies who seem to be situated in the age range we would call Boomers. No doubt there are some 80 somethings as well. But just how far down the age scale does this threat run? Below a certain age, the Cold War has little to no meaning and the Russian Empire of old is just that..old. These younger people are like other younger people, they like their technology and their gadgets and their entertainment and their clubs, just like in the West.
I think the fools are the Nato types who thought there would never be consequences and kept pushing closer and closer into a Great Power’s sphere of influence. It appears to me that Russia is perfectly capable of whipping Nato-
and will not give any time for a massive buildup against them. They have clearly been preparing and at this moment, short of Nato going nuclear, could deliver a massive and decisive blow, physically and psychologically.
Of course, I hope the self delusion fog will lift in Washington, London and Brussels, allowing for cooler heads to prevail, averting a war that could potentially end western civilization as we know it.
You’ve got it reversed. Putin thought he had a “great power “ but his military couldn’t even handle the Ukrainian military. He now has to keep doubling down. He better watch his back as the domestic threat ratchets up.
It’s imprecise to call it the Ukrainian military. They’ve been trained up to Nato standards for 8 years. And they have mercenaries from the west in there and Nato officers coordinating space relays and working Himars from what I’ve read. And all the Geo-Spatial network info of the Pentagon. The Ukrainians as a people are not to be underestimated anyway, sans all that. They are famously great atheletes etc. A hearty, exuberant, agile, wiry stock.
So though I know what you mean, it’s maybe some American exceptionalism over saturation effect. Or maybe you think negatively of Ukrainian abilities. One of the greatest pocket billiards players who ever lived gave me lessons and I hung out with him in the pool hall in my wayward youth. You can’t imagine how gifted and intelligent and wise a human being he was. He loved to play pool but he lived to go fishing. He was more proud of his knowledge of fishing holes in the NY area than of his 400 ball runs at straight pool or missing at 135 against Mosconi in a national championship final (meaning nearly defeating the greatest who ever lived before Efren Reyes. He said Greenleaf was probably actually better than Mosconi, but Greenleaf had to be drunk to play at his best).
morongobill,
I could not agree more.
I’m quite disappointed to see the Colonel and TTG are now sounding too much like the neocons of old, back in the Iraq war days. What happened? Is it because the US is in decline and loosing its dominance? I have the greatest respect to both, but I am sorry to say that I think their patriotism and the tendency to side with the underdogs have colored their judgement, for the worse.
NATO has been encroaching closer and closer to Russia border. The Russia Federation has been in danger of being broken up (so it can be plundered by the West). That’s an existential threat to Russia, which has nothing to do with Putin.
TonyL
It is because this is a defensive war.
TonyL
how does this invasion help Russia’s security concerns ?
It is quite disappointing to see people who were against the US invasion of Iraq support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It shows that their opposition to the invasion was never about principles.
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1573012679953981440?s=21
It appears the Ukrainian military have good intelligence. What happens if the Ukrainian forces roll back most of the Donbass before Putin’s draftees are ready for deployment?
The question is will Putin enlarge the war by getting Belarus involved? And will his military commanders execute an order to use chemical or nuclear weapons which would naturally enrage the west and the Eastern Europeans?
Sam
I am informed that Belarus forces are even less capable than the Russians.
I could have filmed a scene very similar to that in appearance never leaving my apartments over the course of the last 25 years. And if in the mood, have composed text which said that 200 fighter planes were destroyed.
Then turned to my kidnappers and said ..
W/regard to the Russian call up I have said b/f the bottom line is this; is denying Ukraine its independence worth risking one’s life for the average young Russian?
For Russian men aged 18-30 Ukraine has always been “sorta independent”. Now the Ukies insist on complete independence. “Here you, you go risk your life to deny Ukrainians complete independence”. Somehow I don’t think this “resonates” w/t young generation of Russian men. Fifty-five year olds and older might rally to Mother Russia but the young kids…? This is no ’41. Russia is/was attacked by no one. Russia attacked Ukraine. I think the 18-30 years olds get that.
Bill Roche
I think that the 18-30 year olds in Russia think that this all started when the US overthrew the democratically elected government in Kiev and replaced it with a junta. I think they also think “Why does the US get to do this in Kosovo/Iraq/Afghanistan and we can’t do it just once on our own borders?”.
You are right about Kosovo and Iraq… 100% You are wrong about Afghanistan. At least you are wrong up to about 2005; thereafter you are right. As to democratic elections in Ukraine you have got to be kidding … right. Elections were democratic, w/o Russian influence. C’mon man.
——-
Comment: Fleeing to Mongolia? I thought that Putin was no longer a KGB man in his mind. I was wrong. He does not understand that Russians are not going to continue to accept being herded to death and mutilation in Ukraine? He is a fool. He can’t understand that ordinary Russians will not allow themselves to be cattle pushed into the slaughterhouse in Ukraine to be butchered by actual soldiers, Ukrainian soldiers. He is a fool.
He may actually be crazy enough to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. pl
——-
Or trying to reinforce the perception that yes he will use them because it looks like he has to. Fourth and Long plays do require optimistism of a sort.
It’s a measure by the bosses there, perhaps, to keep the Ouest unwilling to risk brash moves during the training time intervals.
I will be contacting Mister Ed to see if he has the cell phone number of Mister and Misses Kay Hoss.
“(Reuters) – North Korea on Thursday said it has never supplied weapons or ammunition to Russia and does not plan to do so going forward, according to a statement released by the state media KCNA.”
The stink of death must be pretty strong for Kim Jong-un to step away like this.
Yes. And as much a statement on China’s position toward the whole affair.
Given the past seven months, and especially the past four weeks, should we now begin to openly question Putin’s real authority inside Russia going forward?
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRagyXYD/
Jordan Peterson interviewed briefly by Piers Morgan on “Putin’s Next Move.”
It’s interesting.
From Pier to Piers with one letter. Smart parents. Simple Simon met a Pie Man going to the fair. How do you lose with a name like Jordan? Book of John or Book of Daniel? River where John the Baptist preached. Bulls Guard Michael. Or Piers Plowman. Or, in a set of 25 letters chosen at random, what is the probability that two are the letter P?
And they discuss a man with a 5 letter name beginning with P?
Fairly good evidently.
Frequencies of Letters
https://www3.nd.edu/~busiforc/handouts/cryptography/letterfrequencies.html
Smells more like a Russian disinformation operation.
Bureaucratic maskirovka…
This post at The War Zone has links to lots of Russian guys being inducted into military service, to die in Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-conscripts-wont-solve-russian-armys-systemic-problems-pentagon-says
Of course, I advocate they all be blown, burned, stricken and killed by our Ukrainian brothers. But, it is so sad. Watching them say goodby to their loved ones. There are, of course, some yahoos (like me), yeah, get ’em. But most are just regular guys. It is so sad. And there will be so, so much more. Welcome to the beginning of the war.
cobo,
Russia already had a problem with buildings mysteriously catching fire. There may be a lot more of that as well as trains and trucks breaking down at a prodigious rate. I don’t want to see that poor bastards blown up, burned or killed. I’d rather have them never make it to Ukraine due to a paralyzed transportation system.
God willing, I hope. And just walk away from the past.
Vladimir Putin has just announced that the Donbas regions that voted to join the Russian Federation will be defended with tactical nuclear weapons. Much like, Sweden and Finland are joining NATO’s nuclear umbrella. Being in the Silent Generation, who had crewcuts in college while the Boomers had long hair and beards, to me, this is an exact replay of the First Cold War. Except, living Korean War Veterans are in their 80s and 90s and all sides (except China) are run, now, by a plutocratic political/economic system that is only concerned for increasing profits not the best interests of the citizens.
European corporate profits will be nil without cheap Russian natural gas. Either, the West gets access to the energy or they freeze. North America this winter could be like Dick Nixon and Jimmy Carter’s energy crises with odd-even rationed gasoline lines being a best-case scenario.
If Ukraine invades Donbas, it is a global nuclear war. If Russia rebounds, and invades Poland, it is a global nuclear war. The only alternative to keep western civilization alive, is to hunker down, sign an armistice and build a DMZ (a new Iron Curtain) from the Arctic Ocean to the Black Sea. One side will say it is to keep the NATO Nazis from invading East and the other will say it is to keep the Red Army from invading West. At least, they will be alive to repeat the propaganda.
Viet-Nam Vet
Ukraine is in the Donbas as we speak. Liberating it, they are NOT invading it. They won’t stop. Who is going to make them?
Leith,
Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
Earlier it was implicit to me that Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons to defend Crimea that has been part of Russia since 1783. It is now explicit. The Russian nuclear umbrella has also been extended to include Donbas. Either Ukraine stands down or a nuclear war is inevitable. In every war game run, the participants have ignited strategic nuclear weapons to avoid losing them once the nuclear threshold is crossed. If this isn’t clear to the White House and 10 Downing Street, we are in deep trouble.
“Either Ukraine stands down or a nuclear war is inevitable.”
So when Putin threatens the Baltics or Poland should everyone stand down too? Are we gonna allow nuclear blackmail? Where does that lead to?
Once upon a time there was a man named President Richard Milhouse Nixon. They changed the “ad” after the middle M to “il” for either ill or il but printed it as written. “But mister presidemintdent, they will think it stands for Military house, not Milhouse,” said thugs thunny. “That’s fine by me, thugs, just as long as they know it doesn’t mean Mouse.” Thugs Thunny thought through the theoretical thematics, therefore Thugs Thunny thaid, thusly: “The thoughtful thinker therefore should remind himself that the origin of the word mouse is to be found in a Latin word for muscle, your RMN-ness, n’est pas?” The commander was in the John , when Thugs Thunny thought he heard the great man say, impatiently as though shaking in some way: “Oui, Oui-Oui, Oui!”
And then he said change the sign on the door from biochemical lovingfestivalware to Strep Throat Research Center. And Thugs Thunny had the sign constructed and switched it with the old one. And: Life went on. And on. And on. And on.
Sam
It leads back to where it pretty much started, Washington DC.
This mess didn’t start in February or in 2014, it started with the policy of continuous NATO expansion to the east. In Russian list of grievances this is pretty much #1, before Putin’s time even.
With Ukraine, Russia drew the line.
I don’t support Russia’s invasion, and think it tragic and reckless. They had other, better paths to take but so did the US, the EU and Ukraine.
So the powers that be have to decide whether to continue escalating the situation or to try and find some kind of a negotiated solution.
If people like general Ben Hodges are calling the shots I’m not optimistic about the future.
exactly what does “Ukraine stands down” mean?
Leith, Who is going to make Ukraine stop? I thought the answer was clear: Putin says about two pounds of U235, that’s who.
In my opinion, we need a “circuit breaker” event to stop the now inevitable escalation in its tracks. This should be followed by a ceasefire, armistice and trust building initiatives.
That should include: cessation of western arms supplies to Ukraine and immediate resumption of russian gas supply to Europe including to Ukraine.
Relaunch of MinskII – no Ukraine membership of NATO and Russia recognizes territorial integrity of Ukraine.
However that’s not possible: There are too many Americans of Eastern European descent with revenge fantasies against Russia in positions of authority to allow this to happen.
Then there is NATO which is itching to demonstrate its military relevance by killing a few Russians.
Then there are the american companies who want unfettered access to Russian resources.
We are emboldened to finish off a Russia on the rocks. That is what we will try to do.
walrus
if Russia uses nukes in Ukraine it will lose every remaining friend it has left in the world, except maybe Lukashenko who might find himself isolated and overthrown.
Besides, would it change the military reality on the ground ? What would Russia target with its nukes that it can’t target with its existing arsenal including chemical weapons ?
Maybe someone can say how that would work.
Both Chem and Nuks put terrain out of use for some??? time. I don’t know how long, maybe some CBR guys on this thread might comment. I think that’s it, use of CBR weapons takes area out of the fight. Of course there is the danger of escalation from tactical to strategic use and then we can all kiss our ass good buy.
bR
For chm it depends on whether or not a residue is left on things you touch. In nukes it depends largely on the height of the burst and whether not not the fireball touches the ground.
if Russia uses nukes in Ukraine it will lose every remaining friend it has left in the world, except maybe Lukashenko who might find himself isolated and overthrown.
——————————
I wish that were 100% true. Unfortunately there are not only the unknown percentage of mentally ill, nihilistically perverse, there are considerable number if not plurality in some places just plain friday night at the fights fans and gory spectacle video game and bullwhip Hollywood war flick fans /addicts who are far enough away and utterly lacking in anything like the capacity for remorse or ethical judgment. And they will soon be caught up in the various mob psychologies and repressions emerging and be compelled by forces within themselves and others they don’t understand to pick sides – and those sides will look like hyenas versus lions on the savannah politely debating the etiquette of ripping carcasses apart with their teeth or the other side’s teeth, as the vultures yawn, and cute spotted wild dogs jump playfully.
What causes many Americans of Slavic descent to hold revenge “fantasies” against Russia. I’m sure its fantasy.
Dispensing w/t why lets get to the how. How to stop the killing. How did it start? Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine d/n invade Russia. How to stop it? Putin tells his gen’ls “bring the troops home and tell Zelinskyy let’s talk”. But he won’t do that? Lets get back to basics, there is Ukraine and there is Russia. They are not one in the same. Putin disagrees. Ukraine is a sovereign state. Russia should not invade sovereign states. Putin disagrees. Ukrainians insist they’re independent of Russia. Putin disagrees. Military men on this blog can discuss military angles, I can’t. I can discuss the political ideas as well as anyone. Russia must accept “just” being Russia. Putin disagrees. It is 2022 and Russia is no longer the “Mother of all Slavs”. Putin disagrees.
walrus,
“There are too many Americans of Eastern European descent with revenge….”
Yes. So will it be Russia’s U-235 or something belonging to the White Helmets, who were quite willing to use chemicals in Syria to get the intervention desired?
https://turcopolier.com/video-of-fake-chemical-attack-in-syria-already-complete-white-helmets-co-produced-footage-ttg/
https://turcopolier.com/the-white-helmets-are-saddling-up-for-another-ride/
Walrus and Viet-Nam Vet –
Nukes won’t make the Ukrainians stop. Unless of course Putin nukes every city in Ukraine with more than tactical nukes and turns the country into a sheet of glass. Putin won’t do that. Xi won’t let him. Any nuke thrown by Putin no matter how small will infuriate and further motivate Ukrainians and their Slavic, Baltic, and Finnish neighbors. They will retaliate. How? It would be useless to speculate now, but count on it.
Putin said nothing of the sort. Russian Military Doctrine on the Use of Nuclear Weapons is quite clear and well published. Yes if the Russian State is threatened with annihilation, nuclear weapons will be used, name another Nuclear State that does not have that policy. The two Donbass Republics will definitely join Russia, Zaporozhia and Kherson will most likely join. None of this would have happened if the Ukraine had kept to the Minsk Agreements.
So Putin gets X number of bodies. Takes a while to turn bodies, and not all these bodies, into competent front-line troops, unless Putin just wants more cannon fodder for the Ukrainians to kill. If Russia cannot properly train, supply, and support the troops presently in the field, what chance will they have to properly train, supply, and support the callups? Where will the equipment come from? Russians are already digging out T-62s, museum pieces, to replace all the tanks they gave the Ukrainians.
Putin talks using nukes. It’s quite likely the Russian nuclear forces are as well-maintained as their conventional forces. Suggest much, if not most of the money intended for nuclear force maintenance has ended up in various pockets. Bottom line – what if Putin orders a tactical nuclear strike and the missile/bomb doesn’t go off? Or the missile doesn’t launch? Or the missile explodes when launched? Or the bomb explodes while the plane’s waiting to take off? Putin also needs to remember the prevailing winds go from west to east, meaning the Rodina could get a great deal of fallout.
No, don’t believe Putin would order any nuclear strike. He can’t be sure his weapons will work. But we can be sure our nukes will work. So can the Brits and the French.
The T-62 thing is to make you think they are whupped and complete bozos. And it’s being promoted, through media stories and easy to make photos and films by the British, the US, the Ukrainians AND the Russians. They have lots of functioning nuclear power plants for years since 1991. The core of a nuclear weapons industry. They got Bill Clinton to turn over tons of US fissile material. They supplied rocket engines until practically yesterday to the US. If you are going to bet my life and everyone elses on an assessment like the one you wrote above, I think you seriously need to make an appointment for Gamblers Anonymous because you are likely to lose everything if you actually believe what you just wrote and are not just trying to show and feel solidarity with something in a society with such zeroed ouf levels of solidarity, which is a deep human requirement and need that it has gotten to where for the sake of some feelings for others i e solidarity, you pursue cosmic mass murder. That is what this place does to people. Don’t take it the wrong way. It’s by design. Everyone goes there in worlds like this.
It might be fake news. The Finnish border guards haven’t seen any particular increase in the number of Russians wishing to cross.
https://twitter.com/rajavartijat/status/1572879121062977537
“Incoming traffic at the eastern border increased during the night. Traffic has increased compared to previous weeks, but the amount is still small compared to the time before the pandemic. Our resources are sufficient and the situation is under the control.”
Poul,
The rate crossing the border doubled from before the announced mobilization. As the Finnish Border Guard says, the crossings are under full control.
“Traffic at Finland’s eastern border continued its growth on Thursday. 6,470 Russians arrived in Finland across the land border. 0 illegal border crossings. We do a thorough check on every arrival. We remain vigilant, as always.”
And they write this. So I’m still in the “fake news” camp.
https://twitter.com/rajavartijat/status/1572879127488729088
“The situation at Finland’s borders has not changed alarmingly in recent days. Incorrect and misleading information is circulating in social media. We will regularly post about the situation on this twitter account in the coming days.”
More from the Finnish Border Guards.
For perspective: from Matti Pitkäniitty, Head of Int. Affairs Unit at Finnish Border Guard.
https://twitter.com/MPitkaniitty/status/1573194781102116864?cxt=HHwWgMC4oa-UjtUrAAAA
“Friday 23.9.2022 at 08.00 Finnish time
Yesterday 6 470 Russians entered to Finland via Finnish-Russian land border. 3 227 exiting. Number corresponds to weekend traffic. In August and September we have had around 6 000 arriving to Finland on Saturdays.
More analysis later.”
Matti Pitkäniitty has more comparative data with pre-Covid travel.
https://twitter.com/MPitkaniitty/status/1573561303268052992
“Comparison: Last week Friday arrived 3 529 Russians, yesterday 7 667 Russians. Clear increase.
South-East Finland: yesterday arrived 6 998 Russians.
Three years ago, pre-COVID, on Friday 20.9.2019 arrived 11 790 Russians. We are still clearly below.”
And once in F the Russian agents under cover give the “fleeing Russians “ a) teddy bears b) atomizers filled with .. c) rifles d) language lessons e) another option?
Having followed Russian telegram channels, it seems that there is pretty little censorship. What’s good for them is that they are allowed to criticize the government actions (e.g. the problems on the third day of the mobilisation, the experience on the battle field and etc). They don’t hide that like in every country in the world, when the mobilisation comes, some people flee the country. But as videos show, the overwhelming majority went to the mobilization offices and are waiting to join the army. I suppose many Vietnam veterans have similar memories when they were drafted.
What I don’t understand with the psyop of the British press and the mod (,,unnamed Kremlin officials”) is who is the target of these stories?
The big difference is that these men are not raw recruits being drafted, they are former military personnel being mobilised. The people fleeing Russia are the woke, who wouldn’t even defend their family. I have seen Telegram channels of people volunteering to join, only former soldiers are accepted. My eldest daughter’s former boyfriend was VDV, and he immediately volunteered. Personally, I hope that they do not accept him, as he is a steroid user. And ‘roid rage is not good!
Per NPR today, Chechen leader tells Putin not more Chechen soldiers. As they already have provided enough.
Al –
40 of Kadyrov’s Chechens were just today KIA in Kherson Oblast, 30 more wounded. Ukrainian artillery strike took them out at their temporary barracks. They rarely if ever engage in as front-line infantry. Putin uses the Chechens more to scare Ukrainian civilians and keep them in line.
What seems to be forgotten by some is that the former occupied countries in Eastern Europe were very eager to join NATO and for good reasons. Reasons that are now rather evident. I also wonder how well maintained Russia’s nuclear capabilities. We have already seen the situation in other areas of their military.
If invading Ukraine was Putin’s first major mistake, then mobilizing is his second major one and it may turn out worse for him. As has been pointed out, the younger generation in Russia is not willing to accept government decrees as much as the older one.
As has also been pointed out, this action seems to be rather desperate and may even be too late. It is doubtful that Russia has the time or the resources to build a massive military machine. Homo Sovieticus is a dying species and has been for a generation, with more to come.