ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced on Friday that they have deployed to areas previously held by the Syrian army in the eastern province of Deir ez-Zor amid a rapid escalation of tensions.
“The recent developments in our homeland, Syria, pose a significant threat to the security of our people and the stability of our region in Deir ez-Zor. In particular, the resurgence of Turkish-backed mercenaries and ISIS [Islamic State] militants in the Deir ez-Zor desert presents a serious danger,” the SDF said in a statement. “In response to this situation and to ensure the safety of our people, our fighters in the Deir ez-Zor Military Council have been deployed in the city and west of the Euphrates. Our primary objective is to safeguard our security and the well-being of our community,” it added. The Deir ez-Zor Military Council is a local force affiliated with the SDF. The deployment came after the reported withdrawal of the Syrian army and pro-Iran militias from these areas, as well as increased ISIS activities in the nearby deserts.
Reuters reported on Friday that the strategic al-Bukamal border crossing between Syria and Iraq also fell under the control of the SDF. This is a vital route for Iran to connect with its regional proxies. Damascus has not confirmed the withdrawal of its troops from Deir ez-Zor. Regime forces and their allies have used the territory west of the Euphrates to carry out attacks against the SDF, who are in control on the other side of the river.
Syria’s civil war was dramatically reignited last week when a coalition of rebels led by the Islamist Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a blistering offensive against the Syrian army. They quickly took control of the northern city of Aleppo, the most populated urban center in the country, and then advanced into the strategic central province of Hama, capturing the city on Thursday when the Syrian army announced its withdrawal.
Turkish-backed armed forces have also carried out attacks against Kurdish forces in the northwest. ISIS appears to have taken advantage of the shift in focus to the north. SDF General Commander Mazloum Abdi told reporters on Friday that “there are increased activities of ISIS mercenaries in the Badia region, and the south, and east of Deir ez-Zor, and Raqqa. There are movements and they have controlled some areas recently.” He said that they are working with the United States-led global coalition to recapture these areas.
https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/061220244
Comment: Things are moving fast… damned fast. The HTS-led rebels/jihadis have taken Hama and are closing in on Homs. The Turkish supplied and controlled FSA militias along the border have pushed the Rojava Kurds and YPG out of their enclaves in Tel Rifat and northern Aleppo. The remaining ISIS bands in the Syrian Desert are feeling froggy. Will the SAA establish a defensive line at Homs? The Russians aren’t convinced they will.
To the east, the SDF is going far beyond taking those seven towns held by IRGC-affiliated militias on the east bank of the Euphrates (with US air support) and have cut off Iranian supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon at al Bukamal. I’ve read reports of US aircraft overflying the advance. This advance did not involve any SDF-SAA combat. The SAA units along the Euphrates pulled back towards Homs and Damascus on their own. The SAA is also pulling out of Qamishli and Hasakah in northeast Syria.
Additionally, Druze militias around Sweida have risen up against Syrian security forces in the south. They have taken control of the main police station and the civilian prison so far.
If Russia has intentions to reinforce Syria, it won’t be easy. Most of the craft used to ferry equipment to Syria in the past has been sunk by Ukraine. They can still launch missiles from the Caspian or from their ships in the Mediterranean. They also have their port at Tartus and airbase at Hmeimim. But I doubt Russia wants to commit many resources to Syria until the SAA demonstrates that it will fight.
TTG
Now all that HTS has to do is advance 20 kilometers to the east and the the Assad government is doomed. Once they are cut of from Latakia there is no coming back. My guess is that Assad will flee.
The rapid offensive is shocking and quite bizarre. Why did Syria surrender Hama and Aleppo without a fight?
How was HTS and pals about to prepare for those offensive with no preparation from Syrian government forces?
You would thing that the Idlib enclave would be heavily monitored, mined and multiple defensive lines guarding the boundary. Where were the defences?
The offensive a day after a ceasefire with Hezbollah? Very convenient.
I’d wager that someone or multiple persons in Syria’s defence intelligence was paid off or a deal was cut, there is no way they could be this incompetent without some inside collusion or sabotage. There are reports of mass defections of Syrian units. It is like the army is just dissolving.
If Assads government falls then likely Hezbollah will soon cease to exist as an effective force. Iran and Iraq are not going to get heavily involved nor is Russia. With the border crossing in the hands of SDF no more overland reinforcements & the Israeli airforce is not likely going to turn a blind eye to thousands of Iranian fighters being flown into Damascus.
Perhaps Eretz Israel will no longer be a fantasy after all….
It’s like what we saw in Afghanistan. If there is no will to fight things collapse fast. No one wanted to die for the Western-installed regime in Kabul and ditto for the Assad-regime today.
Poul, Short term, Iran will will go to war with the jihadis. They have to – and that is what the Saudis, US and Israel are hoping for. Turkey will move in at some point. The Kurds are going to be wiped out. Like I said previously, they are kites, to be used and cut lose to the winds of fate when convenient.
I just can’t see how the Iranian can do anything. The US now has control over the Syria-Iraqi land border and will bomb any attempt from Iran’s side regarding land forces.
I think the Turks are deeply involved right now. But the fate of the Kurds depend on the US/Israeli policy. Will they defend the Kurds or throw them to the Salafists.
Poul,
There is a big difference between the regime installed in Kabul by foreign invaders and Assad who was never seen by his people as a puppet as a foreign power, and I know this because that is what the Syrians told me when I was in Syria.
But the Syrians have been weakened by many years of war, sanctions, and foreign occupation. Everyone loses their will to fight if they take enough of a beating.
I Do Not Believe Eretz Israel Ever was a Fantasy…Its Been widely Published for a Long Time..Also ..A new Temple..and Dome of Rock Issue..Agency to Agency..
Also…Someone Has to Settle The Iran..Problem…..A Reprocessing in Fact…Several Players from East to West..Should Reconsider How Fast..A Hand can be Played.
This Reminds me Of Afghanistan…I Read Assad and his Family have flown to
Russia…There should Be a Rapid B2B..Change..also North to South..EU..Nato..
The TRUMP Effect..Is what it Is…And its all due to The Eretz Israel…Effect…..IMo
jim
This situation has turned bad; very bad. There is going to be a massive refugee crisis and a lot of human suffering. Lebanon and Israel will be next on the head choppers’ target list. Then Iran The US has proven itself to be idiots, too clever by half, again, allowing, perhaps even encouraging, this.
Once all of the non-takfiris have either fled or lost their heads, we should agree, with Russia, to turn the whole region into a nuclear weapons proving grounds – the region includes Turkey. If we don’t, within our grandchildren’s’ life time, Europe will fall to the jihad. They’ve tried before, you know.
“within our grandchildren’s’ life time, Europe will fall to the jihad.”
Not necessarily jihad, but certainly Muslim domination.
See
“Muhammad overtakes Noah as most popular boy’s name [in England and Wales]”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly4g2v0ej6o
“Muhammad was the top choice for parents naming their baby boys in England and Wales in 2023,
with more than 4,600 children registered with the name.
It has been among the top 10 names for baby boys since 2016,
but has now overtaken the previous favourite, Noah,
according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).”
Goodbye to James, John, William, etc.
Keith,
Muslim domination = jihad
Why not Jihadist, Keith
Political fashion change over time. Just look at Europe in the past 100 years. Why should a Islamic Salafist-like movement not appear in Europe at some point in time in the future. When the Muslim are the largest population group?
Col. Lang pointed out that hard-line religious awaking movements are recurring events in the Islamic World.
” HTS-led rebels/jihadis”
Is that the US government position or just your opinion? By which I mean the claim of rebel/jihadis or rebels=jihadis? Who on Earth thinks these islamists are rebels, and by extension anyone the US or our actual allies should support?
If HTS is backed by Turkey, why the hell are we supporting an eventual destruction of Syria so part or all can be conquered by Erdoğan?
” with US air support”
Who in the US government authorized that, and by what congressional authority?
On a bright note won’t the war spending and ‘reconstruction’ be great? I’m so glad the Borg can entangle Trump before he even takes office. I wonder who gets to pay the bills, especially the butcher’s bill.
And, lastly, did anyone catch on that General Gerasimov called US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Brown, on November 27th. Ukraine stopped all the ‘deep’ range attacks on Russia afterwards. Making this move by Rebels! (Star Wars not War Between the States for you memers out there) to ‘overthrow’ Assad is soooooo surprising. Has everyone forgotten all the color revolutions already? What have all the usual suspects been doing in Syria since the RU intervention in 2015? Why would all the former groups that were made neutral then suddenly decide to change sides, or to trust the ‘new’ leadership of the ‘rebels’ now? I’m sure it’s nothing but new found principles.
Fred,
The US has been supporting the Rojava Kurds since the battle of Kobani in 2014. That grew into our SF support of the YPG and our eventual support of both the YPG and SDF fighting ISIS the whole time. Besides ISIS, IRGC-supported militias have been taking shot at us and the SDF over the years. SDF and the SAA have seldom engaged in combat.
The Rojava Kurd’s biggest enemy has been Turkey and the FSA militias along the Turkish border. It’s those FSA militias that are attacking Kurds around Aleppo and now at Manbij. The HTS, as it exists today, has not been targeting the YPG or SDF. The HTS is also not controlled by Turkey, unlike the FSA militias to the north. Qatar is the largest benefactor of the HTS.
Here’s the authority paragraph:
“U.S. forces have operated inside Syria since 2015 pursuant to the 2001 and 2002 Authorizations for Use of Military Force (AUMF). U.S. operations in Syria as part of Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) seek “the enduring defeat of the ISIS.” “A small number” of U.S. troops (~800) are in Syria to conduct counter-IS operations and support U.S. partner forces.”
It’s been that way since Obama, through Trump and into Biden.
TTG,
Thanks for the Biden Administration line. So I can conclude Rojava Kurds are not Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, just our latests and great downtrodden group we are obligated to train, equip, defend, and pay for because ‘national interest. HTS, well let me quote the administration directly:
“Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a coalition of northern Syria-based Sunni Islamist insurgent groups that evolved from Jabhat al-Nusrah, or “Nusrah Front,” al-Qa‘ida’s former branch in Syria.”
https://www.dni.gov/nctc/ftos/hts_fto.html
So Biden/Harris have allied the US with al-Qa‘ida. Or is this the same fiction that we’re only stopping Iran from sending anything via land to Lebannon, and of course NATO member Turkey is aiding HTS, but, well we’re not fighting our ‘allies’ or with our ally’s group, but aiding that ‘best ally’ who can’t get across the Latani. And boy did Ukraine disappear off the news.
A final thought regarding the ” It’s been that way since Obama, through Trump and into Biden.”
Trump left office in 2017, he hasn’t been president for almost 4 years. Who is in charge now? Biden/Harris? Blinken, Sullivan (Obama’s man)? This is the same incompetent crap those folks have done since Trump left office, and during Obama’s two terms. The 1,000+ soldiers out there in the Eastern Syrian desert, they are the excuse to shout “don’t cut and run”, “finish the job”, and all the other slogans the warmongering fools have shouted since the AUMF was passed. We are on the wrong side. We aren’t even on our own side. Inauguration day can’t come soon enough.
Fred,
Trump left office in 2017? You misplaced an entire administration.
Fred –
The SNA, which competes with HTS, are the Turkish proxies. They’re in Afrin and northern Aleppo governates. HTS fought with them and kicked them out of Aleppo city last Monday. They (the SNA) include Ahrar al Sham, the worst headchoppers in Syria. They don’t appear to be fighting against Assad’s forces. They are fighting now in Manbij against the SDF with Turkish air and artillery support.
Ukraine did not stop ‘deep’ attacks against Russia after the Gerasimov call. Just three days ago they hit Dyagilevo airfield in Ryazan and a barracks in Grozny. There were several other ‘deep’ attacks since that phone call and there will be more with Ukraine’s newly manufactured Peklo attack drone with 700 km range.
Leith,
Nice hair splitting – more too clever by half deep state thinking.
At the end of the day, they’re all jihadis and the fighters will join whichever franchise is able to dominate the takfiri market.
Eric –
I thought you’d be celebrating that the al-Zenki headchoppers and other jihadis are going after the Kurds? Between them and the Turks and the ISIS bands resurging in the desert it won’t be long for you to get your wish.
Too bad though that after that happens Rojava’s poly-ethnic and multi-faith community will disappear. All those Assyrian Christians, non-jihadi Arabs, secular Kurds and smaller communities of ethnic Armenians, Circassians, Turkmen and Yazidis may also get the ax.
I’m not celebrating hell on earth. I’ll leave that to you and TTG and the deep state ( redundancy alert).
I will note the irony of you guys bitching about Israel’s actions in Gaza when you support real and intentional mass murder of innocents in Syria because Russia bad and SF ultra- cool or some similar dumb ass jar head shit – and all the while supporting Israel’s short term objective in Syria despite proclaiming to despise what what Israel is doing. Me thinks the deep state loyalists doth protest too much. You might consider un-screwing your ideology – or your legend – at some point; just a suggestion.
On a scale from 0 to 10 of scumbag filth needing to be killed – the jihadis set the limit for the high end, whereas Kurds rate maybe a 5.
3…2..1…TTG appears to inform us all, again, that according to – well never mind, unnamed sources or something – the US is merely protecting the sainted Kurds from Iranian fighters, who, for their part, continue to insist that they are trying to enter Syria to fight the jihadis, which is believable because it makes sense. This is reminiscent the assertion that Russian officers were shooting their enlisted men for fun after getting drunk. I enjoy a good joke too, but don’t take it too far, your know what I mean?
@Eric – “On a scale from 0 to 10 of scumbag filth needing to be killed ….Kurds rate maybe a 5. “
Spoken like a little Eichmann. Or no, more like a pint-sized Talaat Pasha.
The rest of your post is pure malarkey, I’ve never supported mass murder, in Syria or anywhere else. And by the way, there were none of your so-called ‘unnamed’ sources about the attack by Iraqi Hez on the US and their SDF allies. The source was CentCom. If you don’t believe it, take it up with General Kurilla, not me.
So the SAA perhaps pulled out of Deir ez-Zor and the northeast to consolidate around Damascus and Latakia governate. Or will they not even defend Damascus, and just turn the mountains of Latakia into an Alawite stronghold?
Syria may well be partitioned four ways: Turkish rule via their Syrian mercenaries in the North, Alawite rule on the coast, HTS rule in the center and south, and the Kurdish led AANES coalition with Christians and Arabs ruling in the northeast. Or maybe make that five partitions as the Maghawir al-Thawra faction at al-Tanf is reported to be heading towards Palmyra.
Not sure how long the northeast can hold out though The SDF will have to defend against the Turkish air and artillery and Turkish led merc ground troops, while simultaneously safeguarding against ISIS terrorists to their south. The 900 US troops won’t be there in Syria forever. Especially with this new agreement to withdraw troops from Iraq, which will complicate logistics for troops in Iraq. About time we left Iraq, we are just targets there for Iran’s proxy Iraqi militias. US bases in Iraq have been hit with rocket and drone attacks 170 times in the last year. On the other hand where will the new tranche of 5000 US troops be sent that is in the news lately?
Leith,
“The 900 US troops won’t be there in Syria forever.”
They weren’t supposed to be there after Trump ordered them out. He’s now learned the hard way not to give orders that won’t be followed. How many ‘refugees’ will we be taking this time around?
Fred –
Trump never ordered all US troops out of Syria.
In fact, he agreed to “an indefinite military effort”. He wanted to keep the Iranians from using the Baghdad/Damascus highway so kept the blocking force at al-Tanf. And he left US troops in the NE because he had stated he wanted the oil, remember?
Leith,
Biden was unable or unwilling to get those troops home? Biden wanted the oil?
Eric,
Catholic Joe from Scranton? Why would he, or Jake Sullivan (and his real boss), or our allies, care, or ever did care, about any of the religious or ethnic minorities in the place whose boundaries were created by the British and French after WW1. Now there will be a great excuse to emotionally manipulate the American people to remain entangle overseas. Trump should, but won’t, release all the information available on just who betrayed whom over there.
Kudos to the Turks for their Western supported war of conquest. But, Russia! Ukraine! and of course the land of Jared and Ivanka……
Homs is said to have been taken and the South has risen in rebellion. It’s just the coast now. So Erdogan & Co have won.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1liqnO9iSvshTLwgPB3q9sJTgfUI&ll=34.263548787879415%2C38.19636966254592&z=8
Poul,
The South has risen in rebellion or the South has fallen to foreign invaders? I would say the latter.
Not like Ukraine ’22, when it needed no analysts or experts to tell is how it would go. In this case, for some of them, this is the end of Syria. For others, the prelude to a clean-up of Idlib.
Murray (submitted on an earlier thread in another context) representing the first take:-
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/12/the-end-of-pluralism-in-the-middle-east/
Khairullin the second:-
“Iran and Russia have drawn closer. At the start of the Syrian war, relations between the two were decidedly ‘neutral-hostile’. By late 2024 however, we now see a very strong alliance. Israel and the US, by violating the peace agreements through this Turkish insurrection, have provoked a renewed Iranian presence in Syria: Iran has begun to expand beyond its bases, redeploying additional forces into the country. This gives Assad and his allies a direct pretext to expel the American and Turkish proxies from Aleppo and Idlib. This isn’t speculation — it’s straightforward arithmetic”.
Via ZH, that last, and haven’t located the original Khairullin piece.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/erdogans-idlib-shock-shadows-kursk
Mercouris committing himself to no prediction but examining the twisty relationship between Turkey, Iran and Russia. He’s English, Mercouris, but with a Greek background, diplomatic at that, so is au fait with Erdogan’s twists and turns. Risking a summary of his take, he reckons Turkey’s too powerful and important to be just slapped back into line.
For a take from the point of view of the endangered Armenian community, Almassian:-
https://youtu.be/Dafa7TmfEk4?t=182
Thank you for your Sitrep, TTG. I tried in the past to keep an eye on the Uighurs – they had family in their then location in Northern Idlib. The Chinese didn’t want them back and had in the past put in surveillance teams to monitor them. The Uighur fighters were fanatical and will take their chances but that community is vulnerable. Is there any news of them now?
EO,
Almassian (your Armenians link above) is excellent. He is well informed. He is stating what I initially thought – Pronouncements of the demise of Syria are quite premature (like a neocon wet dream).
The jihadis attacked where the Syrian forces were green recruits. The fear of being head-chopped combined with lack of combat experience caused them to flee in a rout. The experienced Syrian Army + Hizballah are forming a defensive line and will push the jihadis back from there. That makes more a lot more sense.
Btw, did you notice that he says exactly what I do?
Of course, all of that is contrary to our well informed ISW/Deep State correspondents’ perspective.
Yes I did, Eric. Sorry – I did not see your comment before I submitted mine below.
Seems a lot of people, from Washington to the Israelis, from Bloomberg to Al Jazeera, working away at defeating the Syrians with talk. The Russia internet doomsters falling for it too. But the Russian doomsters fall for anything.
EO,
Did you also notice that, as I’ve been saying, Russia not blitzing Ukraine has consequences. The alleged “slow grind” strategy has cost them Syria. It will cost more.
A further account from Almassian. In the first few minutes of the clip, set from 1.30, he relates how the Jihadis were prepared and assisted.
https://youtu.be/Uy9DZCFbTDc?t=89
Almassian states in the first clip that it was known in Aleppo that the Jihadis were being prepared for the attack. One wonders why the Russians and the Iranians did not pick that up also. The explanation usually given – that they expected it in March and were taken by surprise – is not convincing.
As for the whole, it’s back to the scenario as before it seems. Jihadis cosmeticised as moderate rebels, supported by the West with no regard for the lives that will be lost in Syria again, are doing some more rearranging of the Grand Chessboard for us. “Alawis to the grave and Christians to Beirut!” Timber Sycamore redivivus.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timber_Sycamore
The Washington Crazies, or the “Borg” as the Colonel termed the US foreign policy establishment, still in action. The Kiev Post confirming the assistance of the Ukrainians. The mention of the French as also being heavily involved was not something I had seen mentioned elsewhere. Again, with those parties and more being involved, it’s difficult to see how Russian Intel got the date wrong.
EO,
Yep. This CIA/State Dept/Borg BS about the US merely assisting the sainted Kurds is risibl
English,
All roads lead to London. Your statement regarding Col. Lang is incorrect, he said the Borg are global.
It appears that the Syrian Army contingents that withdrew from Deir az-Zor have fled to Iraq:
https://ina.iq/eng/36884-more-than-1000-syrian-soldiers-inside-iraqi-territory-says-senior-security-source.html
Love the picture TTG. American flags a waving behind smiling brown people It perfectly captures how Americans view the world. We got what we wanted. The downfall of Assad. Scourge of the civilized world.
Christian J Chuba,
I thought it perfectly captured how we are a part of this. In addition to our support of the Rojava Kurds and Arab tribes of eastern Syria, we maintained that peculiar presence in Al Tanf along with the “Revolutionary Commando Army” formed from SAA defectors back in 2015 and first trained in Jordan. That group is reportedly also on the move against Assad now.
Same as 2003 and the results of that adventure were less than desirable.
Nice tweet about a similar past event.
https://x.com/AlanRMacLeod/status/1865526687036797401
A guy at my gym mentioned something I had forgotten about – the gas pipelines. The US has been trying to build gas pipelines from KSA to Europe for decades but they needed to fully control either Iraq or Syria to make that possible. Syria seems to be back on the table in that regard.
There is a lot of money to be made – and we certainly don’t want Europe to be buying gas from Russia.
James,
There’s a lot more that money motivating what is going on there, and here. Canada too, being such a wonderful place. New Canadians being the best and noble ones, too. Just ask them, and your government.
Assad has fled Damascus. My guess is that in 10 years time the new regime will look like the old regime. Corrupt and hated.
https://tass.com/world/1883937