Statistics and Hysteria… on both sides – TTG

Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?

Jeffrey Morris  17 August 2021

A surge involving the rapidly-transmitting Delta variant in heavily vaccinated countries has led to much hand-wringing that the vaccines are not effective against Delta, or vaccine effectiveness wanes after 4-6 months. This has fueled anti-vaccine sentiment suggesting the vaccines are not working, and causing much stress in vaccinated people that they are not as protected as they thought they would be.

In this post, I will focus on vaccine effectiveness vs. severe disease/hospitalization, which is the key factor for public health. I will not deal with vaccine effectiveness vs. symptomatic or asymptomatic disease here – that has its own set of nuances that I will save for a future post.

One disturbing result that has been repeated about several locations is that a high proportion of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 are vaccinated.   For example, we can see from data from the the Israeli government data dashboard that nearly 60% of all patients currently hospitalized for COVID-19 (as of August 15, 2021) are vaccinated (downloaded data set and details are found at the bottom of this post). Out of 515 patients currently hospitalized with severe cases in Israel, 301 (58.4%) of these cases were fully vaccinated, meaning two doses of the Pfizer vaccine.

I have seen this statistic of “nearly 60% of Israeli hospitalized COVID-19 patients are fully vaccinated” mentioned in numerous media reports and social media posts, for example see here. From many, I have seen this statistic used as evidence to support a narrative suggesting vaccines don’t work or have lost their effectiveness vs. severe disease, and I have seen other articles quote this type of figure as further evidence for the reduction of effectiveness of the vaccines in trying to justify 3rd shot boosters. (Continue reading at link)

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

Comment: Jeffrey Morris is a statistical data scientist, professor and Director of Biostatistics at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. In this article he explains how this data has been misused largely through the mathematical phenomena of Simpson’s Paradox, which he also explains. He goes on to break down the Israeli government data taking into account the size of the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations in Israel and normalizes the data with a “per 100,000” calculation. The bottom line of his statistical analysis is shown in this table (updated on 2 September) showing the vaccine is still very effective against severe illness from Covid -19 and that an unvaccinated Israeli is about six times as likely to end up in the hospital as their vaccinated compatriot.

Morris did another study of Israeli data from 10 August to 8 September looking at the effect of vaccines and boosters vs. death/critical/severe disease. The bottom line is pretty much the same. Vaccines, including the third booster dose, work better than no vaccine.

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90 Responses to Statistics and Hysteria… on both sides – TTG

  1. Babeltuap says:

    Science is now officially off the table. 100% political warfare. First it was no masks, then masks, then lockdowns for 2 weeks, then longer, then open borders with no testing, then passports. Now we are at lose employment or else. We are at war. Have been the entire time. No where else to go but kinetic which it will. Communism vs Personal Freedom. Keep your head down and remember the old USMC rule of thumb; I’m up, he sees me, I’m down. Stay in the fight.

    • TTG says:

      I learned it as: I’m up, I’m running, I’m down followed by a roll. If I tried that now, I’d give myself vertigo.

  2. Seamus Padraig says:

    Hmmmm. I’m no statistician, but I’m having a little difficulty reconciling the your graphic about Israel with the second, to wit:

    Severe cases
    Not Vax 214
    Fully Vax 301

    Current Severe cases (per 100k)
    Not Vax 365
    Fully Vax 277

    Now I assume that the first graphic (Severe cases) refers to the entire population of Israel, which, according to Wikipedia, is over 9 million people, right? If so, how can there possibly be 214 ‘Not Vax’ cases out of 9 million, but 365 ‘Not Vax’ cases out of 100k? Is it that ‘Current Severe cases’ actually means something completely different from ‘Severe cases’? Or what am I missing here?

    • TTG says:

      Go to the article to see the final table with the 214/301 numbers from 15 August. I used the table Morris updated with figures from 2 September. Sorry for the confusion. The trends are the same.

  3. smoke says:

    Glad to see data that includes some age breakdown, as well as cases and severity.

    Some of us, who are unvaccinated, are as concerned about possible longer term unknowns of this novel biotechnology as we are about the near term relative risks that TTG describes, in a disease that most survive. The fact that the vaccines were approved after a trial period which was brief even for more standard vaccine designs, does not add confidence.

    The genetic invasion of cells, by active synthetic viral particles, on which the new vaccines are based, troubles particularly those who have autoimmune conditions or family histories of such conditions. When medical understanding of what is called “autoimmune” is slight at best, CDC reassurances don’t mean much.

    It is outrageous that Inslee in Washington, and now Biden, can issue broad mandates that oblige people to choose between their livelihoods and vaccination. The Washington governor claims the authority under a state of emergency, which he himself declared in Feb 2020, and which seems to give him power to do almost anything “for the public good.” Can this stand? What is Biden’s authority? And why at this particular time?

    Washington state offers no options to vaccination, such as regular covid testing or antibody tests. Apparently, the list of qualifying medical exemptions, which was issued to doctors, is so narrow as to be almost non-existent. A friend in Washington, who suffers from milder autoimmune conditions, has a family history of autoimmunity and a mother who died from ALS, discovered that these are insufficient cause for exemption. It is not the near term effects that trouble her.

    Most confounding: what is the goal of these broad, intrusive mandates? A slightly tested therapeutic jab, which does not stop transmission and offers limited protection that wanes after six or seven months. Does anyone knowledgeable about virus still entertain the delusion that this virus can be eliminated? Surely not with the present therapeutic toolbox. The leaders who issue these mandates should be expected, at least, to explain the specific purpose and goals. With a timeline.

    Did anyone inform Biden about a risk that mass vaccinations could stir up worse covid trouble? Some virologists worry that such a non-sterilizing vaccine, esp when administered as mass vaccinations during an outbreak, will lead to virus escape (vaccine resistant mutations) and perhaps even more virulent forms.

    No one is allowed to wait, watch, and see. We are all lab rats now. Except a good lab experiment would leave a representative group of rats unvaccinated, as a control to demonstrate the efficacy of the vaccine, by comparison. I hope, at least, they will keep their mandates off children under 12, the one’s who are building the repertoire of their immune systems and have bodies primed to do just that.

    • TTG says:

      Yes, the mRNA and even the more traditional vaccines can have long term risks we don’t know about. Same goes for Covid-19. The situation with the smallpox vaccination campaign in the US was far more draconian than Biden’s plan. At the turn of the century bands of police and health service officers conducted night raids to forcibly vaccinate everyone they rounded up, often at gunpoint. They would tear infected children from their mothers’ arms and take them to the city “pesthouse” for quarantine. Sure these methods defeated smallpox in the US, but at one hell of a cost. And that smallpox vaccine was also only 95% effective in preventing smallpox infection.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        TTG,
        So we should go back to the future? We used to have slaves and we used to chain the mentally ill in basements and overdose them on insulin or submerge them in ice water for extended periods of time. So that’s all ok now because we used to do it?

        Not following your logic. Certainly not very “progressive”.

        • TTG says:

          My opinion of those methods to vaccinates should be clear from my description of them as draconian. Clearly we shouldn’t have hunter/jabber teams prowling the neighborhoods for a disease like Covid-19. Although I do wonder what would happen if a case or several cases of smallpox appeared in a US city such as Jacksonville. Would the conservative social media launch an assault against the implementation of a ring vaccination campaign such as the one in NYC in 1947 administering over 2.5 million shots in a few days?

      • Barbara Ann says:

        Smallpox was a horrific disease with a 30% lethality rate which killed infants at an even higher rate. Any comparison of the response to it with the response to a disease around 3 orders of magnitude less lethal which affects the old & sick is ludicrous.

        • Fred says:

          Barbara Ann,

          How dare you ! In New York the nursing home fatality rate was 80% higher than previously known due to the “public health professionals” (to use walrus’ phrase) coving up for the sexual predator (whose predations were coved up by the press for years) Andrew Cuomo, the emmy award winning governor of New York. New York, a great state whose largest city’s residents fled to Florida in droves to avoid the Mayor De Blasio lockdowns. Don’t ask how many cases they and their fellow travelers caused.

        • TTG says:

          I agree. Covid-19 is certainly not smallpox, but the costs so far exceed polio. I still wouldn’t want to see the deployment of hunter/jabber teams as a response to Covid-19.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            What costs? The social and economic ones from politically driven lockdowns and ‘non-essential’ declarations, which we didn’t do for polio, or the population adjusted vaccine development cost, or something else?

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TTG,
            Your guy Biden sez, “We’ve been patient. But our patience is wearing thin, and your refusal has cost all of us,” Biden said in remarks Thursday, adding that the unvaccinated, “can cause a lot of damage, and they are.”

            How we are causing damage isn’t explained, of course. I think it’s because we tend to think the government is populated with incompetent lazy unaccountable jackasses. That would be damage in the eyes of big govt power mongers and proponents of the Great Reset.

            So maybe not quite hunter jabber teams, merely forcing us into unemployment and financial ruin.

            My plan is to let the fascists you voted for fire me and then collect unemployment and welfare. I’m actually reasonably well off. Will cash out my 401K (I’m old enough to do that now without a penalty) and hide the proceeds along with the rest of my assets. Then max out the public dole.

            Of course, sooner or later, your guys will declare that I need a vaccination card to collect welfare – strange that needing ID to vote is racist, but needing a vax ID to work or collect welfare isn’t, but whatever. I grow weary of pointing out liberal hypocrisy. You know and I know that it’s all about power and control. Join the oppressors of liberty. The science says you should!

            At any rate, when my benefits are cut off for not being vaxxed, I will simply ride my bike the few miles to cross the Mexican border, renounce my US citizenship and then cross the border illegally back into the US, declaring myself to be a foreign refugee. Illegals and refugees need not be vaxxed, apparently, and they get lots of free stuff and benefits. So I’ll be back in fat city at that point.

            Screw you democrats. I’ll make your system and hypocrisy work for me one way to the other. Have a nice day.

          • TTG says:

            Fred, polio casualties in the peak year of 1952 were3,145 deaths along with 15,000 cases of paralysis. Covid-19 had 345,000 deaths last year and probably the same amount this year. Who knows how many suffer lasting debilitating effects. That’s the costs. I’m sure the one cost that most bothers many on the right is Trump’s lost election.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TTG,
            You know the cost of obesity? Know how many die from it every year? Any idea how many healthcare dollars are spent treating that avoidable condition? When do we start government mandates about diet and exercise? When do we start causing faties to lose their employment?

            How about alcohol? Return to prohibition?

            You trust the CDC death count? Good for you. I do not trust it. But it’s the principle that counts here. The principle of my life, let me live it the way I want to.

            You were a spook/analyst. You know perfectly well the correlation between small govt proponent/Trump supporter and anti-vax. You know it and your peers still working in the swamp know it. That’s why it’s war on people who don’t want to become de facto addicts of an experimental drug that does convey any societal level protection. This vaccine issue, masks, the whole stupid thing is to draw out those that won’t submit to the globalist fascist state. Your buddies want to force their will on people they see as their enemies, people who they see as enemies because those people just want to be left alone and adhere to the original values of this country.

            You want an honest discussion. That’s what needs to be discussed. Not freaking statistics about a virus that isn’t a threat to most of us and a vaccine that isn’t a vaccine, but a therapeutic of unknown long-term effects.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            Facts matter. Polio was causing paralysis and death in what age groups? Covid in what age groups? ” Who knows how many suffer lasting debilitating effects. ”

            As a former long time commenter jledell would probably point out to you, those polio impacts could be overcome with effort and reasonable early medical care. Just like Covid. What’s the survival rate of the later? Notice that fact is never mentioned?

          • TTG says:

            Eric Newhill, My guy Biden is a cranky old man who’s been prone to gaffs his entire adult life. He’s probably pissed now because he expected this Covid thing to be over by the 4th of July. Trump expected it to be over in the Spring of 2020. Neither of them got what they wanted.

            Liberals don’t want voter ID cards. Conservatives don’t want vax cards. Both groups carry around smart phones all the time like clueless sheep. Just push all that voter and vax info onto those smart phones and let those who really care about privacy throw those damned phones down a well.

            For your cashing in your 401k and going on welfare, at least you have a plan. If you plan on coming across the Mexican border, you ought to do it quick. ICE medical personnel are already vaccinating migrants at the border. I imagine that vaccination will soon no longer be voluntary for those crossing the border. At least it shouldn’t be voluntary.

          • Pat Lang says:

            TTG
            “My guy Biden is a cranky old man” Say what? “I am losing patience…” Joe Biden said yesterday. Who the f–k cares about his “patience?” We are not his possessions or subjects, although he probably thinks we are.

          • Pat Lang says:

            All

            Unfortunately, our deeply felt and displayed grief makes the jihadis think they have wounded us so badly that they are making significant progress toward the destruction of Western civilization.

          • Eric Newhill says:

            TTG,
            Ok. Fair enough I kind of like you and would hate to have to tale you out on the field of battle in the civil war that just might be coming. I really just wanted to be left alone to enjoy an approaching retirement, learn to play guitar and some other things I’ve been on hold for ever and a day.

            I don’t have a smart phone. Month by month trac phone. Yes, lots of idiots on all sides.

          • Fred says:

            TTG,

            ICE medical personnel are already vaccinating “migrants ” at the border? Please provide a source for this great piece of propaganda.

  4. walrus says:

    Thank you for your measured words TTG and your wonderful references.

    I have been thinking lately of the likely consequences for the leading anti-vax crowd after this is all over, done and dusted. The historians will then pore over what happened and start apportioning blame. A similar thing happened after WWII; reputations of alleged “appeasers” and fellow travellers were shattered. Their lives were blighted as they were shunned for the rest of their sorry lives. Similarly on a local level, I follow the rules as best I can because I don’t want one of our family to be responsible for bringing Covid in and possibly costing an elderly neighbour their life. These things are remembered for ever in small communities.

    A gentle reminder of what certain people are asking for:

    The abolition of the CDC and the prosecution of anyone in a position of scientific authority who uses big words we don’t like or understand. Anthony Fauci and Peter Dazsek are cases in point.

    The abolition of all covid vaccination programs in favor of alleged cures from HCQ and Ivermectin to vitamin supplements and homeopathic remedies.

    In regard to pandemics, no action like lockdowns etc is justified. We want to develop herd immunity. This is bizarre when one considers that the pilgrims and everyone alive before Edward Jenner popularised vaccination, by definition, had herd immunity. The cost of that was something like 50% infant mortality before age ten.

    The destruction of the pharmaceutical industry in favour of the natural medicine industry, after all the drug manufacturers are just greedy profiteers.

    The making of public health policy via shock jock radio, youtube videos and twitter, instead of by public health professionals.

    The strangest thing about this anti vax disease is that it appears to be strongest in the USA. The leaders of the rest of the world don’t seem to believe the wild claims made here and are diligently trying to protect their populations through vaccination and what social measures are available to them.

    Please get vaccinated.

    • Fred says:

      walrus,

      “The making of public health policy via shock jock radio, youtube videos and twitter, instead of by public health professionals.”

      When were they elected and by what mechanism can they be held to account for errors?

    • AngusinCanada says:

      Walrus,
      With respect, your arguments would be stronger if they weren’t simply disguised insults that completely avoid the real, legitimate and serious concerns that millions and millions of people around the world have (including many of the world’s leading epidemiologists and infectious disease experts). Many of these people are people who look past the “big words we don’t like or understand” and look at real data and ask simple, obvious questions, as opposed to stubbornly hanging onto deceptive claptrap from politicians, mass media and people who post things like you’ve just done.

    • Sam says:

      “..the prosecution of anyone in a position of scientific authority who uses big words we don’t like or understand. Anthony Fauci and Peter Dazsek are cases in point.“

      Fauci and Daszak need to be testifying to a grand jury investigating genocide.

  5. Barbara Ann says:

    TTG

    Thanks for posting this, you are quite right about statistical abuses on both sides. At least here I can read posts and commentary from both sides and express my own views without being insulted, censored, canceled or otherwise prevented from engaging in rational discourse. I am enormously grateful for that and would like to take this opportunity to thank yourself, Larry, our host and all the other contributors, on all sides, who make this possible.

    You bring up 9/11 and the GWOT overreaction. I commented in Larry’s post on the analogy with the current forever war, what I’ve termed the Global War on Mortality (GWOM) and will not repeat myself – save to say the following:

    It is clear to me that the pandemic event is being used today to justify an agenda in much the same way as 9/11 was by the neocons. Their agenda was to invade and occupy Iraq. Today the people with the agenda are the WEF, together with their many fellow travelers and useful idiots in the US and other Western governments & the media. Rather than a foreign invasion, this time the goal is to replace capitalism with a form of neo-feudalism.

    No conspiracy theory is necessary to explain this group’s Malthusian world view or their misanthropic mindset – the WEF’s public statements and dystopian slogans & video messages stand for themselves. I believe this mindset (together with a little imagination) provides a context which is vital in order to properly understand the extreme reaction, to what is essentially a very low lethality disease affecting primarily the old & sick. The immediate aim is to drive the whole population into a digital ID scheme; the “vaccine passport”. Thereafter other strands of the WEF’s published ideas will come into play. I do not wish to hijack TTG’s post so I will leave it at that for now.

    Get Vaxxed or don’t, I have no view on what my fellow citizens choose to do. What I do have an unshakable view on is choice itself. As Anthony Burgess’ prison chaplain character put it in Clockwork Orange “Goodness is something chosen. When a man cannot choose he ceases to be a man”. Demonization of people who has chosen not to get the Vaxx is already underway – by the POUTS no less. Dehumanization will follow, sure as night follows day. Whatever side of this divide you are on, do not be on that side.

  6. Artemesia says:

    Off topic

    Haven’t seen comments over Diana Croissant’s name lately.
    I hope she is well.

    • akaPatience says:

      I’ve wondered about her too Artemesia. I remember her from years ago on Larry Johnson’s former blog, No Quarter. I think it’s been months since she posted anything here.

  7. Datil D says:

    These analysis are always vax vs unvax, like their are no options. Would like to see vax vs one of the suppressed options for example ivermectin. Side effects also.

    “Meta-analyses based on 18 randomized controlled treatment trials of ivermectin in COVID-19 have found large, statistically significant reductions in mortality, time to clinical recovery, and time to viral clearance. Furthermore, results from numerous controlled prophylaxis trials report significantly reduced risks of contracting COVID-19 with the regular use of ivermectin. Finally, the many examples of ivermectin distribution campaigns leading to rapid population-wide decreases in morbidity and mortality indicate that an oral agent effective in all phases of COVID-19 has been identified.”

    https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/fulltext/2021/06000/review_of_the_emerging_evidence_demonstrating_the.4.aspx

    • TTG says:

      That’s the best study I’ve seen so far on ivermectin. It should be treated more seriously and not derided as mere horse dewormer. Another point about ivermectin is its wide use in Africa as an anti-parasitic treatment. Does that widespread use have anything to do with relatively lower rates of Covid-19 infection on the continent? One side effect with the African ivermectin use is a recent study showing 85% sterility among males using ivermectin.

      • Mark Logan says:

        The citing of monoclonal antibodies proven ineffective raises a big red flag on that study. Still might be valid but the monoclonal antibody infusion treatment is widely considered highly effective.

        On the low incidence in Africa interesting but there could be a several factors at work. One, Africa is the youngest continent on the planet:
        https://www.statista.com/statistics/1226211/population-of-africa-by-age-group/ …and this bug goes largely unnoticed through populations of young people. Not as many make it to a ripe old age on that continent.

        There is also a lack of testing to consider, and many of the countries immediately instituted draconian lock-downs, comparatively low import rates.

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7485446/
        “Despite lacking the same testing capacity as other regions in the world, the low numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases can be explained in part due to experiences in handling infectious diseases on the continent. Firstly, resources meant for widespread HIV and tuberculosis testing were leveraged in the fight against COVID-19 [15]. Secondly, the political will exhibited by most governments has been a key element in the response to the pandemic. Governments were swift in imposing lockdowns, restricting movement, and setting up task forces to coordinate efforts [16]. Thirdly, though not backed by evidence, the issue of weather may have given Africa the much needed “lifeline” [17]. Fourthly, compared to Europe, Africa had a lower importation risk of the virus based on the data on the volume of air travel from China to Africa [18]. The estimated the risk of importation per country: Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa had the highest importation risk whilst Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya were at moderate risk. Finally, Africa’s young population may be another reason for the low infection rates experienced on the continent. The median age in Africa is 19.4 years, compared with 40 in Europe and 38 in the US. Case fatality rates for ages above 60 years were higher in Italy compared to other countries, suggesting that the disease is more severe in older populations.”

      • JerseyJeffersonian says:

        Well, in the link I supply below, the news item cited probably refers to the “study” alleging Ivermectin-induced 85% sterilization of men, the substance of which news is here implicitly lampooned, but not critiqued in a substantive way, by Steve Sailer:

        https://www.unz.com/isteve/so-thats-why-the-birthrate-is-so-low-in-africa/#comments

        But if one were to read down the comments following the post to the one by this individual, ic1000, he does present a brief, yet substantive critique of several elements of this “study”, as follows:

        I read the paper so you don’t have to. Three of n points:

        1. It ranks somewhere in the lowest decile of published papers. For instance, the authors write that they mixed the collected ejaculate with formaldehyde-containing saline solution, then checked sperm motility. Obviously they didn’t (formaldehyde kills sperm dead), but that’s a telltale as far as the reliability of the writeup and the quality of the peer review.

        2. The authors collected semen from 385 subjects, then chose to study only the 37 who had “normal” sperm counts, as the counts from the other 338 men were “too low.” Given the title of the paper, this was the authors’ most important decision, and it makes little sense.

        3. This work was published ten years ago [my bolding; i.e., recently dredged up, but scarcely recent], but reporterette Erin Coulehan chooses to write about it in The Current Year. The paper’s only citation (ref. 6) for others who have explored an ivermectin-infertility connection in humans dates from 2002… and it’s by the same group. [End quote]

        So, every 10 years the authors flog it yet again. Guess we’ll have to wait until 2032 for the next installment. Hey, publish or perish, right?

        So, care should be exercised in tossing out “scary numbers” from an apparently rather methodologically unsound “study”, lest you, too, provoke hysteria. Great, thumping statements demand nothing less than, at minimum, a link to the originating “study” for scrutiny to determine how dependable, after examination, they truly are.

        The hotlink to the “study” in question is found (in blue typeface) in the second paragraph of the post by Mr. Sailer (itself a quote from an, uh, newzish sorta item rendered by some broadcast station in El Paso, TX, obviously an unimpeachable source. Surely a repository of incisive, journalistic excellence.

        Be it also noted, that the “study” originated in Nigeria, perhaps the world leader in low-rent internet scams. That cautionary note having been imparted, may I ask if perhaps you may have from time to time been recipient of an unsolicited email from a temporarily financially embarassed Nigerian Prince who requires your assistance remediating his woeful estate, asking you for your bank account number so you can receive a finder’s fee as acknowledgement of your help at the conclusion of the Prince’s eagerly anticipated transaction? /s

        Seriously, though, thanks for taking a stab at this issue, TTG.

        JJ

  8. blue peacock says:

    “Vaccines, including the third booster dose, work better than no vaccine.”

    It appears this is an opinion. Statistical data which of course can be manipulated in many ways, for example age-adjustment, adjustment for various cormorbidities including obesity, etc to achieve whatever conclusion one wants should be considered carefully.

    To show there can be disagreements even among the “highly credentialed”, please consider Nils Anders Tegnell the state epidemiologist of Sweden, who has produced a stellar result for his fellow countrymen, with no lockdowns, schools open to in-person learning throughout the pandemic, no mask mandates and naturally no vax mandates either. However every Swede has access to the vax which is voluntary. Sweden has a low vax rate as a percentage of their total population. Result: Low single digit daily covid deaths over the past several weeks.

    “Tegnell says there is no scientific evidence that a third dose to fully vaccinated Swedes will have any effect”

    https://www.abcnyheter.no/nyheter/verden/2021/08/26/195782586/tegnell-avviser-a-gi-svenskene-en-tredje-vaksine-na

    It should be obvious to any sentient person that the vax mandate & lockdown folks are TOTALITARIANS!

    • TTG says:

      Tegnell is talking about Sweden. Morris uses data for Israel. Sweden also has a higher vaccination rate than the US and is on par with the rest of Europe.

      • blue peacock says:

        TTG,

        I think you’re missing the point. Sweden never succumbed to covid hysteria. This is key!

        Throughout this “pandemic” they kept their country open with no lockdowns and enabled their working class to continue working and their small businesses from operating. And very importantly continued the in-person education of their children. They are not forcing their citizens to be vaccinated and neither are they creating an apartheid system of discrimination of the non-vaccinated & those recovered from infection. They have treated their citizens as adults to make their own health choices. They have not fallen for the Greater Good Theory that has stroked the egos of authoritarian government officials. Anders Tegnell is also not falling for boosters. In fact he claims there is no scientific evidence that it provides much benefit. He differs from the Israeli prime minister and the weathervane Fauci on this. At least he has a track-record that should give him some credibility compared to Fauci who arguably is the cause of the pandemic.

        High vax rates of the population as is being shown in many places is no panacea for continued infection & transmission. The question that needs to be asked is why are the vaccinated allowed to access employment and public services when they are proven to also be infected & spreaders? Why are those recovered from infection with a higher resistance to infection compared to the vaxxed discriminated against? Are you OK with this type of apartheid? This is a serious question.

        It would be helpful to the covid authoritarians to read Harvard epidemiologist & professor of medicine Martin Kulldorff’s twitter thread.

        Twelve Forgotten Principles of Public Health

        #1 Public health is about all health outcomes, not just a single disease like #COVID19. It is important to also consider harms from public health measures. #totalharms

        https://twitter.com/martinkulldorff/status/1340352565481975812?s=21

        Some of us have serious concerns about the totalitarian impulses that have been working their way through our body politic for decades. We want to return to the principles of unalienable rights of citizens and enumerated powers of government that our previous generations fought and created.

      • Sam says:

        TTG,

        Sweden has a vaccination rate of 58% as of September 3rd.

        https://ycharts.com/indicators/sweden_coronavirus_full_vaccination_rate

        A much lower rate than Israel, UK, and several other European countries. Where it is significantly lower than the higher vaxxed countries is daily covid deaths over last couple months. In terms of total outcome when one considers the complete balance sheet they’ve done significantly better than the covidian hysterics.

  9. Eric Newhill says:

    TTG,
    First, I would like to echo what Barbara Ann said in re the quality of the posts and commentary on this forum. With this post you have made available the best response to vaccine efficacy criticisms that I have seen yet.

    I will not argue with Morris’ statistics because they are good. I will, however, make an observation and a critique Morris’ conclusion.

    Observation – The number of severe cases is very low, vaccinated or unvaccinated. So low that one must ponder what all the excitement and panic is all about.

    Critique – Simpson’s Paradox cuts both ways, though Morris only uses to support his argument that the vaccines work at something like 95% effectiveness.

    Are the 50 other than age (btw, what happened to age = 50?)?

    Yes, as Morris says, the > 50 have more risk of serious infection due to dwindling immune systems (and who knows what other contributory variables – it’s a new virus). However, the < 50 probably have a higher exposure to the virus and to a heavier viral load. For example, they go to work every day. They go out at night to social events, bars, etc. They are generally more social active. I don't know much about Israeli culture, but one can imagine all kinds of opportunities for increased viral exposure for the <50 cohort. Are there other meaningful differences between the < 50 unvaxxed and the rest of the country? Are they poor Palestinians/Arabs that are denied healthcare generally and are in bad shape? Morris needs to take his points all of the way and apply them to both sides of the argument. He is being unprofessional when he does not. He knows better.

    Wouldn't it be reasonable to assume those seeking the vaccine and completing the full course of jabs are ore risk adverse and therefor take greater precautions in addition to the vaccine to avoid infection? Wouldn't those refusing the vaccine be far less risk adverse and exhibit more behaviors that increase their risk of contracting the virus?

    Statistics are great for drawing conclusions in a tightly controlled laboratory, but potentially dangerous in the uncontrolled real world. Confounding variables and selection bias abound. We would ned to understand Israeli culture and the behavioral characteristics, demographics, etc of the vaxxed and unvaxxed.

    Let's not overlook the small numbers at risk of serious infection, vaxxed or unvaxxed, and that the vax does not confer protection at the level of traditional childhood vaccines and requires what appears, at this point, endless injections of an experimental drug that has serious side effects to an definite, but ultimately unknown level.

    At best (for a covidian/vaxxer standpoint), this analysis points to the vaccine potentially offering an improved *short-term* benefits for older people. Israel has recognized this. The third booster is recommend by the Israeli govt for those over 50 only. That makes a lot more sense than the rabid Biden and Australian governments' policies. As Barbara Ann has noted, it is clear that our govt is using the pandemic as an opportunity to expert a fascist control over all aspects of our lives. It is no longer a public health matter in the west. Taking the vaccine should be a matter of personal choice.

    That said, good article.

    • Carey says:

      > Observation – The number of severe cases is very low, vaccinated or unvaccinated. So low that one must ponder what all the excitement and panic is all about. <

      This is the $64k question, so why isn't everyone on Earth asking it?

      Regarding the "vaccine": one of my many reasons for not accepting
      the inadequately-tested injection is the precedent that doing so
      would set; as we are seeing, with 1st shot/2nd shot/ booster/second booster/ad infinitum..

      I prefer to live in the natural world- so no, thank you.

      • Carey says:

        Adding, on that note:

        ‘Moderna Developing Two-in-One Booster Shot For Covid-19 And Flu’:

        “Moderna has announced that it is developing a single-dose vaccine to bring to the market that will combine a two-in-one booster shot that protects against both Covid-19 and flu.

        On Thursday, drugmaker Moderna unveiled its latest innovation in the fight against Covid-19 – a “pan-respiratory annual booster vaccine” that combines a booster against Covid-19 and one against regular flu.

        “Our number one priority as a company right now is to bring to market a pan-respiratory annual booster vaccine, >>which we plan to always customize and upgrade<<,” said CEO Stéphane Bancel.."

        "Customize and upgrade", eh? I will firmly pass on all of that.

        https://www.rt.com/news/534384-moderna-two-in-covid-flu-shot/

  10. Eric Newhill says:

    Hmm, you can’t write under 50 with sideways V because the editor recognizes it as an HTML tag (or something). Some of my comment got wiped out at inconvenient junctures. Hopefully the gist of it is still comprehensible

  11. Jose says:

    My household had COVID so we have natural immunity, why will we be required to get vaccinated with an inferior option:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/study-covid-recovery-gave-israelis-longer-lasting-delta-defense-than-vaccines/

    COVID inflected Illegal Aliens are not required to get vaccinated so they can continue the FEAR PORN to deflect from the disaster that is the Bidenista Regime:

    https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2021/09/10/bidenflation-producer-prices-soar-a-record-8-3/

    The Bidenista’s have no options left other than feat itself:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZE1UM6xpjM

  12. Eric Newhill says:

    In re the under 50 being different that the over 50 in more salient ways than just age – in the US, as I have said, those having the most serious covid infection outcomes are poor minorities. This is true in both the under 50 and over 50 cohorts. Being a poor minority is proven determinant of health status and outcomes for more conditions than just covid. It is also a critical variable in vaccination status. I must believe that something similar is happening in Israel. Morris’ analysis fails to take that into account. His dive into the data is too shallow to be conclusive as to vaccine efficacy.

  13. Seamus Padraig says:

    It looks like Mongolia is the new Israel. I guess a debunker’s work is never done …

    Mongolia has overtaken Israel for the highest covid case rate in the world; “shockingly” they had vaccinated 60% of their population before the most recent wave began.

    Interestingly, Mongolia had no covid at all before they began a mass vaccination campaign …

    https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1435792453148102671

  14. fotokemist says:

    Barbara Ann,

    Well said.

    Based on my 10 years as a Research Chemist at the NIH, the upper managers are generally science administrator/politicians, some of whom were scientists earlier in their careers. In my experience, Putt’s First Law applies to the NIH.

    My later career involved supplying chemical analysis support to pharmaceutical companies conducting clinical trials. I witnessed first hand the pressure bench level scientists at these companies experienced to have successful (i.e., the drug gets approved as opposed to we learn the truth) clinical trials. I have personally observed clinical trials shut down and candidate drugs abandoned with fewer and less severe side effects than these mislabeled “vaccines” produce. If anyone is interested, I can put together a summary from publications either listed on PubMed or published in American Chemical Society journals that show how ionophores plus zinc stop any corona virus from reproducing and that its effectiveness is unlikely to be impacted by minor mutations. The ivermectin results from India earlier this year are hard to ignore, so we should admire the effort our news media and establishment science administrator/politicians must be expending to do so. Using WHO published data, a person in Uganda is ~ 100x more likely to die from TB, a lung disease transmitted primarily by airborne particles, than a person in the US. In contrast, a person in the US is 230x more likely to die of Covid19, a lung disease transmitted primarily by airborne particles, than a person in Uganda. One difference is that Ugandans must deal with malaria and do so with HCQ, an ionophore. FWIW, this information was all gathered while sitting in a house that has no wire connecting it to the outside world so that other than my personal experience, it is readily available even to our news media and establishment science administrator/politicians. It contributed to the basis for our decision to wait for more data before taking the risk there would be no long term effects from these “vaccines.” I totally support the right for each individual to make that decision for themselves. I ask only for the same right.

    Therefore, I join you in supporting the right of individuals to make their own health decisions and wonder what happened to “My body, my choice.” I am a 76 year old male who has an annual physical check up with no blood chemistry or pressure issues, cuts and splits our firewood (4 -5 cords/year), tends a 1/2 acre garden with manual or walk behind tools, etc. My “drugs” are 750 mg Vit C/day, 200 mg ECGc/day (an ionophoric component of green tea), 50 mg Zn on MWF and the occasional medicinal scotch. In the winter time, I add Vit D. We attend church regularly, my SWMBO serves as a volunteer, I serve on the board of a local Christian school, we have regular guests and visit others regularly, dine out regularly, etc. That is, we live what we consider to be a normal life with normal social interactions. What others do is their decision, so far as I am concerned.

    I do not feel the need nor intend to blindly follow the dictates of science administrator/politicians, especially given my personal experience while in their employ, although I do evaluate their pronouncements seriously as advice. By taking the above steps I protect others from infection by stopping the disease and all similar ones before a significant viral load develops in me and avoiding social contact when symptomatic. I look forward to those vaccinated persons taking effective steps to avoid infecting others, since their “vaccination” fails to accomplish this social protection while masks and social distancing have been shown to be of very limited benefit.

    As a law abiding citizen, I wear a mask when legally required to do so and when playing in my woodworking shop, where the mask actually has a beneficial effect. So far as I am concerned, others may wear a mask or not as they chose. I do feel pity for those who believe the masks have a measurable beneficial effect on viral particles. It turns out that I also provided chemical analysis support to engineering companies concerned with flue gas emissions and air sampling in general and have provided expert testimony on the same. I earned an “A” in a physics course “The Kinetic Theory of Gases” giving me the theoretical basis to know that “social distancing” as advocated by our science administrator/politicians would require a reformulation of this branch of physics, if effective. Thankfully, MIT have demonstrated experimentally that this reformulation of physics is unnecessary. I have a familiarity with the requirements to filter 2.5 micron particles, which are > 10x larger and hence easier to remove, than viral particles from gas streams. You do not walk around with these filters nor do you simply breathe through them. There is a reason you see technicians in P4 labs in moon suits.

    Additionally, I care not whether someone else chooses to trust these people, wear masks, take an inadequately tested drug based on a new, unproven technology to protect themselves from a bad cold when there are well tested, low risk alternatives available, etc. Just do not ask me to do so.

    • Harlan Easley says:

      Fascinating read, thank you.

    • English Outsider says:

      One justification I have seen advanced for masks is that they reduce the velocity of exhaled air and thus prevent it being projected so far.

      Whatever the reason a mix of measures including mask wearing seems “likely” to have been effective in preventing flu – “The decrease in flu cases this year is likely due to changes in our behaviour, such as social distancing, face coverings and hand washing, as well as the reduction in international travel.”

      https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/clinical-areas/immunology-and-vaccines/no-flu-cases-detected-in-england-this-year-to-date/

      Plus of course the fact that many, particularly the older or other vulnerable groups were isolating enthusiastically irrespective of government guidelines.

      If that mix of measures prevented flu presumably they were useful in preventing the spread of Covid. My impression here was that pre-vaccine the government was never that serious about eradicating the disease. Rather, preventing the hospitals and morgues being overloaded at any one time. Now Delta has become endemic that, mixed with getting the economy moving, is still the main preoccupation.

      I suspect that much of the drama was to do with getting the vulnerable groups to take the disease seriously and thus isolate more carefully. Drama taken to some lengths. There was a time when we were encouraged to go outside and beat saucepans. This was to show our appreciation of the efforts of NHS workers.

      I approved of the sentiment – I saw and heard of personally the severe stress many hospitals were under – but like most of my neighbours couldn’t quite see my way through to beating a saucepan. That type of infantilisation, the quite widespread informing on lockdown evaders, and the police treatment of anti-lockdown protesters and anti-vaxers, was and remains for me a reminder that the England I’m used to, and that many of us old or young still inhabit, may nevertheless no longer be the England of a fair few of my countrymen.

      Purely for health reasons I also self-administer the occasional Scotch. My own personal contribution to Covid science though I haven’t yet got as far as doing the conclusive double blind trial. So far it’s been remarkably successful. It’s belt and braces – I got vaccinated as well – but since everyone else seems to have their pet prophylactic I see no reason why I shouldn’t have mine.

      • Barbara Ann says:

        EO

        Flu disappeared because the the old PCR test was indiscriminate. Recall the Austrian politician getting a positive PCR diagnosis from a can of Coke? Reckon you are safe with Scotch though, just hold the mixers.

        • Seamus Padraig says:

          It’s so obvious, isn’t it? How could a silly painter’s mask prevent the transmission of influenza but not a corona virus? In 2020, they just renamed the flu ‘Covid-19’.

        • English Outsider says:

          Not really Scotch. Been trying out American Whiskey just in case Edinburgh goes in with Brussels.

          On Covid, I’m happier with the way the continental European countries have approached the problem, particularly the Northern continentals, than I am with how our own politicians managed. In particular, we were far too slow in introducing some travel bans recently.

          But Delta has changed the picture so completely that none, including your own country perhaps, are really able to get a grip on it so far. And the conflict between civil liberties and public health policy will surely deepen, given that on the one hand none of us trust the politicians an inch and on the other, that there’s considerable disagreement on what public health policy should be adopted in the first place!

          • English Outsider says:

            Apologies, Seamus – was replying to Barbara Ann but got it in the wrong place.

            On the flu/Covid point, genomic testing is not carried out here on all patients so there’s always the possibility of a misdiagnosis. But where it is carried out there’s no doubt it’s two different diseases. Also the symptoms differ as do the various stages of the two diseases.

  15. Sam says:

    Dr. Fauci on why Americans who’ve previously been infected should get vaccinated despite studies showing it’s unnecessary: “I don’t have a really firm answer for you on that

    https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1436366439901024262?s=21

    Simple question: Why is the guy who likely created this pandemic and who has gone from masks don’t work to now even those recovered should be vaccinated given a podium to promote rules that affect the citizens of our country?

    • fotokemist says:

      In answer to your question, I remember spending a few weeks while an employee of NIH working on a problem Monsanto faced concerning a railway car spill. I was told the reason we had the project was the senior senator from Missouri had requested assistance from our Director. I have no reason to doubt what I was told. For me, it is no great leap to suspect Pfizer, etc. could put similar pressure on Fauci to push vaccination by having their congress critter make a similar request. After all, Fauci must go to these same congress critters for his annual funding. All speculation, of course.

      • Sam says:

        “All but one scientist who penned a letter in The Lancet dismissing the possibility that coronavirus could have come from a lab in Wuhan were linked to its Chinese researchers, their colleagues or funders”

        Who is the conspiracist now?

        https://twitter.com/theseeker268/status/1436430668322402307?s=21

        Walrus considers this guy Peter Daszak an upstanding scientist. Yet he organized a coverup in collusion with The Lancet calling anyone who questioned his natural origin theory of the virus a conspiracy theorist. The Lancet never disclosed the conflicts of interest of Daszak and the other signatories.

        Covid origin: ‘If nothing went wrong at Wuhan lab, then why the obfuscations’

        https://m.timesofindia.com/india/covid-origin-if-nothing-went-wrong-at-wuhan-lab-then-why-the-obfuscations/articleshow/83473826.cms

        There is growing evidence that Fauci & Collins were intimately aware and funded the engineering of viruses to become more infective and lethal. Yet they have not been called before a grand jury to testify and the Democrats are preventing subpoena power for a Congressional investigation.

  16. Harlan Easley says:

    TTG,

    This is what I am seeing also. It appears the vaccines reduce the severity and deaths in the most vulnerable age groups significantly.

    January 2021 C-19 deaths: 105,066
    65 – 74: 23,976
    75 – 84: 29,974
    85+: 31,041

    81% of all deaths/January

    August 2021 C-19 deaths: 21,008
    65 – 74: 4,837
    75 – 84: 4,477
    85+: 3,453

    61% of all deaths.

    A 20% fall in overall percentage of deaths is a significant improvement in survivability.
    Ratio increased in the 35 – 54 age group. I image C-19 is killing a lot of obese individuals in this age range. They would be wise to get vaccinated imo.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pP1i9muS_T5sF40vkRozxBaB1hdFaeiW/view?usp=sharing

    • Carey says:

      > It appears the vaccines reduce the severity and deaths in the most vulnerable age groups significantly. <

      Unfortunately, the long-term effects of the "vaccines" are unknown.

      Is there were a way to get "unvaxxed" if one develops sickness as *a
      result* of the Covid injection? Being a servile ["take the damn shot!"], moneymaking pincushion for the ultra-rich is not my idea of Living.

  17. Sam says:

    From the lessons learned department.

    Today, Denmark lifted all restrictions & COVID-19 is no longer deemed a “societal threat”.

    I led the country’s largest behavioral covid-project (@HopeProject_dk) & advised the Danish gov.

    Here are my thoughts on how DK got here, what can be learned & what lies ahead.

    https://twitter.com/m_b_petersen/status/1436193837744107523?s=21

    As the above thread notes the key is trust in authorities and media. We have none in the US for good reason. We have been consistently lied to by government, big business and media. From the Church Committee report to Iraq WMD, warantless surveillance to the more recent Russia Collusion hoax and the billions in fines paid by Big Pharma & Big Finance from everything from money laundering to falsification, yet no one at the leadership held to account.

  18. scott s. says:

    fotokemist, I have wondered why we don’t hear more from filtration / HVAC engineers regarding air flow / exchange and removal of aerosols from indoor environments.

    • TTG says:

      There’s been a big push on installing HEPA filters and UV lights in the HVAC system. I had to replace our heat pump last winter and had the UV light installed hoping it would help with mold. It seemed to do the trick.

    • fotokemist says:

      scott,

      I am a mere chemist, not an expert in HVAC. Based on my experience, mostly to stack gas and ambient air analysis while working closely with what were at the time the leading experts in the field, the likely reason is the difficulty of removing sub micron particles from a gas at the efficiency necessary to provide protection where one missed particle can cause infection. The guys who design high bio-hazard labs should know the answer. I do know that filters can be designed to remove individual molecules (much, much smaller that a virus) from a gas. The limitation is the very low flow through the filter.

      TTG’s comment about using uv light in the HVAC system is an approach that should be evaluated. Mold is a much larger particle than a virus so is easier to filter. However, I remember reading that uv light is efficient means to kill viruses. The engineering problem would be to determine if light intensity – exposure length – flow rate relationships can be manipulated to kill essentially all the virus while delivering sufficient air flow at a cost hat any body will pay.

      As I write this it occurred to me another issue would be to achieve a sufficiently short time to turn over the room air. If memory serves, we designed our lab HVAC system to turn the air over 4 times/hr. Whatever the actual turn over, we required a really muscular HVAC system even though the vast majority of manipulations occurred in efficient fume hoods. So, if it turns out simply adding a uv light to the HVAC plumbing kills a large percentage of the virus, it should be cost effective means to reduce risk. I am not optimistic that adequate turn over can be achieved practically to eliminate risk. If I were planning to pursue this idea, I would start with consulting a lab HVAC expert to address this issue.

  19. Carey says:

    > As the above thread notes the key is trust in authorities and media. We have none in the US for good reason. <

    This is why purportedly data-based arguments on Covid mean little. The deeply politicized data's junk.. After nineteen-plus months there is still no firm definition even of what a "Covid case" is. One could almost think that's intentional-

  20. Carey says:

    John Day MD has some useful recommendations and links for treatment of Covid:

    http://www.johndayblog.com/2021/09/otc-covid-rxs-azelastin-to-zinc.html

    He’s about to lose his job because he won’t accept the Covid “vaccine”.

  21. Pundita says:

    fotokemist:

    Re your remark,” If anyone is interested, I can put together a summary from publications either listed on PubMed or published in American Chemical Society journals that show how ionophores plus zinc stop any corona virus from reproducing and that its effectiveness is unlikely to be impacted by minor mutations.”

    I AM VERY INTERESTED.

  22. Deap says:

    NYT screeching headlines today: CDC say you are 11 times more likely to die if you are not vaccinated.

    CDC: primary source material posted on their website does not begin reach this headline screeching conclusion and qualifies their entire data collection effort that underlie what in fact is a misuse of their agency name, the limitations of this alleged “study” model and states upfront these were death numbers “associated” with covid incidence; but not the confirmed cause of death.

    • Barbara Ann says:

      Deap

      My own personal home remedy cure for hysteria is to stop watching/reading mainstream news outlets. I stuck to radio news only shortly after the arrival of the Orange devil drove the media nuts and as soon as the pandemic became the sole “news” I canned that too. I drink 3 pots of green tea a day as well, that may have helped too. If I start seeing corpses piling up in the streets I may tune in again.

    • smoke says:

      Link to the CDC report: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm?s_cid=mm7037e1_w

      It would be helpful if some of the correspondents here, who have a good understanding of statistics, could explain IRR#. I assume that calculation has something to do with adjustimg for the increase in the number of vaccinated people from April to July, in order to make comparisons between the two periods. But I don’t understand it.

      Meanwhile, considering the spin the media has given the study, it is curious that what the researchers were actually investigating was 1) what level of protection the vaccines provided and 2) whether that level declined in the face of the delta variant (and possibly waning vaccine efficacy). Leaving aside legitimate caveats about reliability of the data, the simple answer from the study confirms what anecdote and other studies have suggested, that the vaccine offers significant protection and that its efficacy has declined.

      In the periods examined here, the chief decline was in protection against infection, from 90% to 80%. If CDC had not stopped collecting data on covid cases among vaccinated, that did not require hospitalization, one wonders whether a greater drop in protection against infection might have been measured.

      Covid and vaccine efficacy appear to be moving targets. It would be interesting to see the results of a third study, for a period starting a month from now.

      The study, like others before, shows the highest rate of infection among those aged 18 to 49, and almost no mortality. In the July period, when case rates were higher, the incidence of mortality among unvaccinated was measured, for ages 18-49, at .2 per week per 100,000 of total population. That is 2 deaths per million people.

      Playing with that number, if one imagined the entire U.S. population being ages between between 18 and 49, and all 332 million becoming infected, at a fatality rate of 2 per million, it would result in 664 deaths across the entire country.

      In other words, according to these stats, for those under 50, there is no serious pandemic. No one would be talking about experimental vaccines and lockdowns. It’s a perspective the media and public health officials seem intent on hiding and obfuscating. (Or can such data not be generalized, even in a hypothetical?)

      (This imagined scenario might, also, help explain, as someone here noted, how the relative youth of African populations may partly explain the apparently less severe outcomes of the disease in much of that continent.)

      • Eric Newhill says:

        Smoke,
        “In other words, according to these stats, for those under 50, there is no serious pandemic. No one would be talking about experimental vaccines and lockdowns. It’s a perspective the media and public health officials seem intent on hiding and obfuscating”

        Exactly. That is what I have been saying for over a year.

        The government has been lying to us in saying that we are all equally at risk. The media? They might just be abject morons, but I suspect some are smart enough to get it as well and are also liars.

  23. Deap says:

    OnceBiden by EO declares “covid” is a national health emergency requiring the exercise of extra-constitutional police powers, he is just starting.

    1. Guns are a national health emergency
    2. Racism is a national health emergency
    3. Trump supporters are a national health emergency
    4. Climate change is a national health emergency
    5. Belief in 2020 election fraud is a national health emergency

    The possibilities are endless.

    • Eric Newhill says:

      Deap,
      That’s exactly what they’re doing. All 5 have been de facto declared. With Biden’s forced vaccination plan, which I just learned about this afternoon, the time for polite discussion is over. Who cares about vaccine efficacy and all of that rubbish. We aren’t discussing or voting our way out of this. I now consider the democrats, anyone who voted for these democrats and anyone who keeps supporting the vaccination program (and the rest of their BS) to be an oppressor of liberty and my enemy. You should too. Because they most certainly consider you an enemy and have for a long time. They’re just pretending to be reasonable, but their mask is slipping.

      • JerseyJeffersonian says:

        I join you in those sentiments, Mr. Newhill.

        I want to also thank you for you sharing your professional expertise in statistical analysis as a tool toward understanding. When dealing with the real world (as you noted above in your critique of Mr. Morris’ work analyzing data from Israel), drawing upon numbers only gleaned from “skinny” sources, with insufficient acknowledgement of the existence of other, potentially more determinitive factors, can rapidly degenerate into an exercise in obfuscation of genuine understanding via statistics hobbled through confirmation bias. I.e., only collecting, and attributing utility to statistics that serve to confirm one’s pre-existing hypotheses, and erroneously considering this a complete picture.

        I should think that a more ideal approach to data would be to permit it to work upon you in such a way as to pose questions as to the adequacy of your prior or current interpretive frame work. To my understanding, this is the way of the scientist, for whom data/observation can be oddly open ended, whereas to a number cruncher, this might seem irresponsible – just run the numbers, and don’t ask questions, anything of genuine significance comes from rule-based procedures.

        Well, maybe I’m talking through my hat, but the best science seems more akin to music; what was formerly against the rules, or somehow transgressive, when entertained with revised insight, can form the basis for a more expansive understanding, and the growth of a new praxis.

        I will leave it others more versed in history of science to think of examples of this, but will myself remark upon an example from music history. In the late 14th and early 15th centuries, under the influence of the English composer, John Dunstable, and his Burgundian near contemporary, Guillaume Dufay, simultaneously-sounding musical pitches at intervals of thirds and sixths that had been previously thought to be dissonant came to be increasingly accepted as consonant. Over time, this development led to fundamental alterations of both musical theory, as well as practice. To perceive the difference, listen to the earlier 14th century composer of the Ars Nova, Guillaume de Machaut’s Messe de Nostre Dame, the earliest known complete setting of the Ordinary of the Mass, and compare this with the Anglo-Burgundian Guillaume Dufay’s Missa “Se la Face Ay Pale” (based on a musical passage from his own secular ballade of that title), which is also a full setting of the Ordinary of the Mass.

        Well, I’m not really sure how I got here, but listening intently to these masterworks of the late Medieval and the early Renaissance may not merely give you inspiration through their intellectual coherence and beauty, but will also serve to remind you of the merit of the arc of this Western Civilization. This is why we fight.

      • Eric Newhill says:

        JJ,
        That’s good stuff. I understand and really appreciate it. Thoughts that made my mind open up. Thanks.

  24. KMD says:

    I found this analysis of what’s happening in England easier to understand.

    https://cluelesshonky.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-mainstream-narrative-is-putting.html

  25. Sam says:

    18 months into Coronavirus hitting the US, Dr. Fauci admits that he has “no firm answer on how durable natural immunity is… That is something that we will need to sit down and discuss.”

    Unclear why his agency did not collect such data all along.

    https://twitter.com/yossigestetner/status/1436379798381629443?s=21

    We know why. It doesn’t fit The Narrative.

  26. Sam says:

    Leading @pfizer executive is reportedly seen saying at a zoom conference that whatever is happening in Israel is almost a clear predictor what will happen in the US a few months later.

    https://twitter.com/yossigestetner/status/1436434175586934898?s=21

    Big Pharma pitchmen including Scott Gottlieb, former FDA head and now Pfizer board member keep pushing boosters. If you don’t think the Vax Passport will require perennial boosters, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

  27. Carey says:

    From the article: “Vaccines, including the third booster dose, work better than no vaccine.”

    Ok- but isn’t that rather a low standard, considering the side effects of
    the Covid “vaccines” (periocarditis, myocarditis, odd and concerning changes in menstrual cycles and very possibly changes in *fertility* in women, and many more); and also considering that severe cases of illness deriving from Covid are, in fact, very rare?

    If the Covid “vaccines” had a long track record of relative safety, and few side effects,
    they might be a worthwhile risk. They don’t, and they don’t, and I won’t be accepting
    injection with one.

    • TTG says:

      Carey, the vaccines do have a track record of relative safety. I can’t say long because they haven’t been around that long.The most common side effect is fatigue and headache for a day after injection. 66% get local soreness for a day or so. Less than 2% get side effects like rashes, a burning sensation on the skin or red welts on the lips. Even less get anything worse. Only 2 or 3 per million get any of the truly serious side effects. The incidence of serious side effects is far less than the incidence of side effects from the Covid-19 virus itself.

      Just to compare, did you realize that there is a demonstrated risk of hemorrhagic stroke from taking aspirin? A meta study of 16 trials with 55,462 participants had 108 hemorrhagic stroke incidents. But the benefits of aspirin use still far outweigh this rare serious side effect.

      • Sam says:

        TTG

        How many people under 50 years of age and not sick with cancer or obesity who got infected landed up in an ICU? Nearly 40 million Americans have been infected. The claim is that 645K people died of covid. But we know that Alameda County, California reduced their death count by 25% because they were counting those who died of car accidents but tested positive as a covid death. How many other counties were inflating their covid death numbers? In any case what is the age distribution among the deaths and hospitalizations? I’m sure if that data is available you’ll see a huge skew.

        That’s why this sledgehammer approach of vax mandate is not at all about public health.

        Why are low risk populations among the working poor and minorities being forced at the barrel of unemployment to take a vaccine? They were already fucked over big time with lockdowns. Yet the woke BLM crew claim they’re for these guys and fighting “white supremacy”, but forcing these same people to destitution is perfectly fine.

      • zmajcek says:

        “Only 2 or 3 per million get any of the truly serious side effects.”

        This real number, I fear, is much higher.

        I personally know of two cases of mysterious blood clotting shortly after receiving vaccines (2 women in their 80s).

  28. Sam says:

    COVID mortality is more than 1000-fold higher among old vs young, so absurd that the WH pandemic plan mandates vaccines for low-risk working-age people, while it is silent on the critical task of vaccinating more older high-risk retirees.

    https://twitter.com/martinkulldorff/status/1436134578230603780?s=21

    By mandating vaccines for all, the WH pandemic plan does not recognize that prior COVID disease gives stronger longer lasting immunity than vaccines. So, a stretch to call it “science-based”.

    These mandates are not about public health.

    How statistics can be misleading.

    Fascinating! @BrownUniversity public health dean compares mortality without age adjustment. Any clown can help you with that @ashishkjha. Age adjusted cumulative COVID mortality by Sept 2021:
    FL = 162/100K, CA = 185/100K, which is 14% worse.

    https://twitter.com/martinkulldorff/status/1435764193844764674?s=21

  29. TTG says:

    Fred asked:

    “ICE medical personnel are already vaccinating “migrants ” at the border? Please provide a source for this great piece of propaganda.

    https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-08-04/biden-offers-covid-vaccines-to-migrants-in-custody-along-mexican-border

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-ramps-up-vaccination-of-immigrants-in-u-s-custody-but-thousands-have-refused/

    https://www.thegazette.com/government-politics/fact-checker-are-unvaccinated-migrants-part-of-the-problem/

    The last article has a lot of info on the overall situation on the border including that Biden is sending the vast majority of those trying to come across back. All the right wing propaganda about open borders masked that information. I think we should make getting vaccinated a prerequisite for anyone trying to stay here as well as vaccinating anyone we encounter coming or trying to come over the border without resorting to hunter/jabber teams, of course. We have the vaccine and putting it in the arms of a massed population so close to our border is in our best interest.

    • Sam says:

      Peter Doocy asks Psaki why vaccines are mandated for private businesses but not for migrants at the border

      Psaki: “That’s correct.”

      https://twitter.com/thefirstontv/status/1436412930900303874?s=21

      Maybe border security does vaccinate illegals crossing our southern border but Psaki doesn’t know or it may not be Biden policy to force vaccines on them.

    • Fred says:

      TTG,

      August 8th “offers”, not requires, unlike actual citizens.
      August 13th (CBS) “Thousands refuse”. are they sent back? Will they be denied work, just kidding they have no id to prove they are eligible to work here at all, right?
      August 9th, “The Gazette”, a news paper in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Their ‘fact checker’ team are four reporters employed by the paper. Thanks for the month old self verifying reporting from people who are more than a 1,000 miles away.

      Yes that later data shows 94% of those apprehended are expelled under article 42. Better do your own calculations though as the reporters left that tidbit out. They also left out any mention of people NOT apprehended for illegal entry.

      “All the right wing propaganda about open borders masked that information.” I would certainly hate for you to think I’m a right winger or a propagandist so just to be clear, how many are people entering the country via border crossings and how many are coming across but not going through customs.

      “I think we should make getting vaccinated a prerequisite for anyone trying to stay here as well as vaccinating anyone we encounter coming or trying to come over the border without resorting to hunter/jabber teams, of course. We have the vaccine and putting it in the arms of a massed population so close to our border is in our best interest.”

      Psaki has already said the Biden administration is not going to require any of that. See the link in Sam’s comment below.

      How will people verify they are vaccinated? How many vaccinations satisfy your proposed requirements. What kind of exemption for what reason is allowable? Are you suggesting, like walrus, that the entire human race is in danger from this virus? I suggest that you should write up a post about it for clarity’s sake.

  30. Deap says:

    As the number one federal bureaucrat survivor in our entire nation, Fauci can’t give a “firm answer” because he hasn’t yet checked which way the wind is blowing.

    Fauci is reduced to court astrologer in Biden’s seraglio.

  31. plantman says:

    TTG

    You say: ” the vaccines do have a track record of relative safety. I can’t say long because they haven’t been around that long. …. Only 2 or 3 per million get any of the truly serious side effects. The incidence of serious side effects is far less than the incidence of side effects from the Covid-19 virus itself.”

    I think this is well-argued, but the absence of a long-term safety profile is a serious concern especially since all other previous attempts to make a coronavirus vaccine ended in failure due, in large part, to ADE…a condition in which the antibodies actually help to enhance the disease by allowing the virus to enter the cells. As you know, some of the animal experiments included ferrets that seemed to regain health after vaccination but died shortly afterwards when they were exposed to the wild virus. (Some people believe that the surge in cases in Israel, Gibraltar, Iceland and Scotland, among the vaccinated, are a sign of ADE.)

    The FDA warned Pfizer that ADE was a real concern but did not require Pfizer to conduct additional clinical trials to address the issue.

    The fact that Pfizer gave the placebo group the vaccine soon after the trials ended is also extremely suspicious. Why would they do that unless they knew the unvaccinated group would fare better long-term than the vaccinated group?

    We have already seen proof that the spike protein (produced by the vaccine) can wreak havoc on the vascular system, the heart, the brain (strokes) and other vital organs. What we don’t know is how many people will die in two or three years time.

    Don’t you think we should figure that out before we inject our kids with this stuff?

    So why would the FDA approve a vaccine for which there is no long-term safety data?

    Most people think it’s due to pressure from the drug companies, but there’s also a group of billionaire elites supporting these vaccines as well. What’s there interest?

    Are they really just philanthropists looking to save wretched humanity from the plague or is there a political agenda driving the broader campaign?

    And, if there is a political agenda, then it is also likely that they already KNOW what the long-term effects will be.

    We ‘mere mortals’ might be in the dark, but I’m pretty sure that the people that have put so much time and energy into this program, have a pretty clear idea of what the outcome will be. And I suspect we are not going to like it.

  32. different clue says:

    The Naked Capitalism blog has been running a lot of Covid related material on its ” Water Cooler” week-daily feature since Covid first became an issue of concern. A lot of it seems like high value information and thinking to me. In case others wish to look at it, here is the link.
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/09/200pm-water-cooler-9-10-2021.html

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