Another point that Morris doe not address is that out of a total population of nine million Israelis, there were only 515 patients hospitalized with severe Covid-19 cases. I don’t know what the capacity of the Israeli health care system is like, but the situation doesn’t look all that bad to me. It’s certainly not pestilence that will do in Israel. To amplify this point, Let’s look at some data from Sarasota, Florida. I use Sarasota because the data was readily available and Larry Johnson has provided a few snapshots of the situation there over the last year. He can check it out if he desires.
The Covid-19 population at Sarasota Memorial Hospital for 17 August 2021 consisted of 230 hospitalized with 25 vaccinated and 205 unvaccinated, 51 in the ICU with 3 vaccinated and 48 unvaccinated, and 34 on ventilators with only one vaccinated. Given those raw numbers, and much like Morris’ Israeli study, I’d much rather have myself and my family among the vaccinated. But you can’t tell if these figures are something to worry about in Sarasota.
Here is the 7 September 2021 patient census for Sarasota County.
Today’s patient census: 764
Today’s COVID-positive patients total: 211 (212 yesterday)
Today’s ICU census: 103 (no change from yesterday)
COVID-positive patients in ICU today: 60 (57 yesterday)
% Unvaccinated COVID-positive patients in the hospital: 84% – Estimate based on vaccination status shared by patients or validated by an official source; this information is updated on Mondays and Thursdays.
Cases have stayed about the same recently and are still extremely high. The number of hospitalized Covid patients has risen in the Sarasota County area. Data for recent deaths is not available. The test positivity rate in Sarasota County is very high, suggesting that cases are being significantly undercounted.
Is this affecting the life and economy of Sarasota? Is it overburdening the county health system? I don’t know. I’m sure Larry does. Given that the total population of of Sarasota County is 434,000, the figures don’t seem unmanageable at all. Only a quarter of the patients are Covid, probably much less than the heart disease and cancer patients. Seems worse than Israel, but still not that bad. It might be worse in the Miami-Dade or Jacksonville areas, but pestilence certainly doesn’t seem ready to lay waste to Sarasota County. And Florida is about as bad as it gets right now in the US. Here in Virginia, the situation is totally manageable. I wonder how bad it would get if we just ignored it? I’d really not want to find out, but I do wonder. Certainly we’d survive as a species and, most likely, as a society. It may just eventually go away. That seems to be what happened in India.
Back in mid-July I did some calculations to judge the risk of Covid-19 vs. the rest of the vaccine normalizing the figures to “per 100k” as Morris did. At that time there were 187,237,000 vaccinated with at least one shot. There were 9,048 deaths among that population. The rate of death was .000048. Compare that to the figure of 184.97 Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 population, a figure that included both the infected and not infected in the total US population. The rate of death was .0018. If one isn’t alarmed by the Covid-19 death rate, why be alarmed by the vaccine death rate which is less than Covid’s by several orders of magnitude? Seems the hysteria of the anti-vax crowd is even more misplaced than that of the Covid as the EOTWAWKI crowd.
Earlier today somebody linked to an article on the overblown reaction to the swine flu. That’s certainly not the only time we overreacted. We see where our hysteria over 9/11 led us. Sure it was a national shock, but we only lost 3,000 in the attack. Our reaction to polio seems a bit overblown as well. In the peak year of 1952, there were nearly 60,000 cases throughout America; 3,000 were fatal, and 21,000 left their victims paralyzed. The vaccine was a good thing, but it became a governmental mandate impinging on the freedom of all and there were plenty of the “do your own thing” generation that objected to that mandate. Oh well, we were a different people back then.