Syria hopes for “strategic partnerships” with Ukraine, its new foreign minister told his Ukrainian counterpart on Monday, as Kyiv moves to build ties with the new rulers in Damascus amid waning Russian influence. Russia was a staunch ally of ousted president Bashar al-Assad and has given him political asylum. Moscow has said it is in contact with the new administration in Damascus, including over the fate of Russian military facilities in Syria.
“There will be strategic partnerships between us and Ukraine on the political, economic and social levels, and scientific partnerships,” Syria’s newly appointed foreign minister, Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, told Ukraine’s Andrii Sybiha. “Certainly the Syrian people and the Ukrainian people have the same experience and the same suffering that we endured over 14 years,” he added, apparently drawing a parallel between Syria’s brutal 2011-24 civil war and Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian territory culminating in its full-scale 2022 invasion. Sybiha, who also met Syria’s new de facto ruler Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus on Monday, said Ukraine would send more food aid shipments to Syria after the expected arrival of 20 shipments of flour on Tuesday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced last Friday the dispatch of Ukraine’s first batch of food aid to Syria comprising 500 metric tons of wheat flour as part of Kyiv’s humanitarian “Grain from Ukraine” initiative in cooperation with the United Nations World Food Program. Ukraine, a global producer and exporter of grain and oilseeds, traditionally exports wheat and corn to countries in the Middle East, but not to Syria, which under al-Assad imported food from Russia.
Russian wheat supplies to Syria have been suspended because of uncertainty about the new government in Damascus and payment delays, Russian and Syrian sources told Reuters in early December. Russia had supplied wheat to Syria using complex financial and logistical arrangements to circumvent Western sanctions imposed on both Moscow and Damascus.
The ousting of al-Assad by a coalition of opposition groups led by al-Sharaa’s “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS) group has thrown the future of Russia’s military bases in Syria – the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia and the Tartous naval facility – into question. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the status of Russia’s military bases would be the subject of negotiations with the new leadership in Damascus.
Al-Sharaa said this month that Syria’s relations with Russia should serve common interests. In an interview published on Sunday, he said Syria shared strategic interests with Russia, striking a conciliatory tone, though he did not elaborate.
Comment: This looks like a good old fashioned Cold War confrontation with Moscow being Moscow, Kyiv playing the part of the West and Damascus being the Third World nation in flux being the bone both dogs are fighting over. Why is Kyiv pursuing good relations with Damascus? To remove Russian bases and influence in the region, obviously. I doubt Moscow is going to simply roll over and play dead. And Al-Shaaraa is playing it smart by not closing the doors to anyone.
Oh well, life and the Great Game go on.
TTG
Well, Kyiv can replace American troops in Europe too. Or at least some. Why not those in Germany?
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2024-10-17/ukraine-russia-war-victory-plan-nato-zelenskyy-15539659.html
The US of A can then deploy its new tools further East:
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-09/news/us-deploy-intermediate-range-missiles-germany
How about Poland?
Lithuania? Estonia? …
Happy new year.
Russia hasn’t yet left their bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. Probably they’re waiting to see what Trump will do after his inauguration. But there is not much hope that Trump will get behind a policy of returning the Assads to Syria. In the past he has publicly called Bashar Assad a monster. So it’s not gonna happen even if Tulsi whispers sweetly in his ear.
What do you make of the stories around Ukraine’s 155th Mechanized Brigade, Leith? Swizz NZZ picked up on the rumors or events around matters,
Or maybe the 155th Mechanized Brigade’s formation:
https://tinyurl.com/Anna-Kievskaya
Russian propaganda?
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/geopolitik/ukrainekrieg-franzoesische-brigade-wird-zum-fiasko-hohe-verluste-und-tausende-deserteure-li.2286081
https://tinyurl.com/Juri-Butusow
Good to see Ukraine nimbly taking advantage of any and all kremlin weakness. Yesterday, in an historic first, Ukraine downed an orc helo with a rocket fired from a naval drone.
OT, how about this, TTG? One of yours has gone off the res? https://x.com/BillMelugin_/status/1874852673872408900
Kilo 4/11,
An experienced active duty 10th SF Grouper on leave. He’s reportedly a strong Trump supporter. He was also reportedly on his way to a Grand Canyon camping trip. Was he planning on hosting his own fireworks show? My thought right now is that this was some kind of dumb-assed accident by someone who should have known better. An operator of that caliber should have been able to create a much more effective bomb.
When I was at Fort Devens, there was a story about an ex-Special Forces soldier who set off a bomb and extorted a Boston bank executive. He was caught while trying to retrieve the ransom and ended up in Danbury Federal Prison. He became a celebrity among the prison population. And then there’s the SF dudes who tried to overthrow the Venezuelan government. I’m reminded of Kipling’s “The Man Who Would Be King.”
D. B. Cooper?
TTG, I read comment by LE that he died from self inflicted gun shot. (?)
Al,
I just heard that on the radio. Looks like he used a Desert Eagle. He wasn’t half stepping.
TTG,
He was whack job for sure. How that was missed in the SF community is amazing. I doubt he went from quiet professional operator to suicidal bomber over night.
Furthermore, in photos from a few years back, he looks squared away. Photos from a few months ago, he is downright fat and looks like he could not manage physical qualifications.
Shooting himself while parked directly at Trump Tower’s front door, with a cyber truck full of explosive materials was no accident. What set off the explosives? Must have rigged a detonation trigger; again, no accident.
But yeah, very poor performance from a GB. You’d think he could have obtained some det cord, some C4, a 155 round that failed to explode…something better than gasoline, propane and stupid fireworks.
Maybe he had a brain tumor or some other ailment that made him crazy. Maybe with him being a year from retirement, his buddies and command were trying to help him limp across the finish line.
An alternate theory that I have roughly conceived of, that maintains the honor of the man, is that, as an SF drone guy (apparently he was), he came to know some things – maybe about the drones over the US – that he believed should be understood more widely. His command wouldn’t listen or, silenced him. Maybe there were threats.
So, as Trump and Musk supporter, he sought to get their attention as well as the attention of the entire nation. The way he did it cannot be ignored like going to a reporter could be. It’s not like he could just call Trump either. It had to be this way, at least that’s how he figured it. Hence the fireworks instead of real bombs. He killed himself partly as a statement and partly, perhaps largely, because he knew his life would be ruined, like Snowden’s. He has left an explanation to either be found or that will be released soon.
Of course, we – the general public – may never know about the message.
Eric,
Divorce, Trump hating wife, psych issues, and a “I’ll prove to her how much I love her” fireworks show gone bad.
Fred,
No. Not according to the message left by the guy.
As I suggested (I should never allow my rational mind to create doubt about remote viewing methodology), it was all about drawing attention to the nature of the drone activity over our coastal areas (Chinese super tech, but US tase them too) as well as war crimes committed with drones.
No ranting about the wife or anything like that.
US “has them too”
Fireworks are not permitted at the Grand Canyon.
Technically, it’s a good fit, but there are serious strategic implications.
Syria needs food, bad; most of the decent Ag land is in the Northeast, controlled by Kurds (and Israel just grabbed some more farmland in the South). Unless/until HTS can cut a deal with the Kurds, Rump Syria will need to import a *lot* of grain.
Ukraine prolly gets leverage to make sure that HTS doesn’t cut a deal to allow the Russian naval and air bases to stay. That puts a dent in Russia’s ability to project power in the Med and North Africa; OTOH, forces withdrawn from Syria could be used against Ukraine, so I don’t see this as any real relief for Ukraine’s immediate military problems.
The bigger strategic implications hinge on Turkiye, as its support for HTS now looks like direct support for Ukraine. Russia response won’t be military, but is likely to damage Turkiye’s [already wobbly] economy.
And speaking of economics, Rump Syria will be as poor under HTS as it was under Assad, since Kurds control the (minor) oilfields as well as farmlands. So HTSyria will prolly depend on Western $ to pay for Ukrainian grain. I can’t picture Trump supporting that, so Europe will get stuck with the bill, though it will likely be structured as “loans” (which just kicks the can down the road a ways).
As far as one can make out – not very far, admittedly – the Ukrainian grain deal was a scam. Most of it went to Europe, much overland. That upset Polish and other farmers because prices dropped. Some of it seems to have been used feeding Spanish pigs. Not a lot got to Africa.
The ships used to carry what went by sea were claimed to be used for arms supplies the other way. Some were attacked and exploded in a way empty grain ships don’t usually explode. So the story goes. The EU’s also done what it can to impede Russian grain exports to Africa.
So Ukrainian grain for Africa looks like the usual scam that the Western press is going to be disinclined to look into.
On the tangle in the ME, Colonel Wilkerson’s view here. Brought back memories.
Some time ago I wrote in to the Colonel’s site arguing that the influence of AIPAC was exaggerated. That the lock Israel seemed to have on US foreign policy was down to the Evangelical/Christian Zionist portion of the US electorate.
But the Colonel was dismissive of that view. He thought that US support for Israel would last only as long as Israel was useful to the US. If it stopped being useful it would be dropped.
This is also Colonel Wilkerson’s view. He characterises Israel as America’s “attack dog” and reckons it will be dropped as soon as it is no longer useful in that role.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwKBY1UgILo&ab_channel=DannyHaiphong
In the same video Wilkerson is followed by Sleboda. Sleboda’s dealing mostly with Ukraine and here he kicks off with a sitrep. Fair to say that Sleboda is not an optimist. He looks at the various means available to us of making further trouble in that part of Europe and finds lots. He doesn’t seem to think the conflict will end any time soon.
Sleboda’s one of the most accurate and realistic of the various commentators on this war so I’m wary of putting opposing views forward. If Sleboda ever met people like me he’d dismiss us as naïve fools for thinking that Trump might manage to extricate America from the Ukrainian morass. But I still believe the best resolution would be if the Ukrainians themselves were allowed a say in their future, and if Trump could broker a deal that would allow that.
So I’ll carry on being a naïve fool for just a little longer, I reckon.
Two bankrupt nations are going to mutually aid one another. What other clown-world stories will we be led to believe in 2025? Maybe HTS led Syria can sell its oil for grain to so Ukraine can pay off the UK/EU/investor-owned bonds they’ve been in default on since Marshal (law) Zelenski stopped payment on them months ago.
Oh look – Terror attacks in America! How coincidental. Drum roll to the usual suspects saying ‘Merica must fight them over there to keep them from coming here.
TTG,
“This looks like a good old fashioned [ ill-advised, soon to backfire, tunnel vision/target fixation] Cold War confrontation with Moscow”
I improved the comment for you.
So now, to spite Moscow, we are going to support jihadis in Syria in successfully establishing their sector of the caliphate.
It never ends, forever war all over the globe, but the US MIC keeps making money while the rest of us become poorer and less secure.
I see a lot of potential in this Jolani guy, so far he’s been saying a lot of good stuff over the past few weeks and has been quite firm in that he won’t allow the Syrian territory (at least the parts he administers) to become another vassal of the Axis of Resistance, or whatever is left of that destabilizing and really really demonic ‘construct’.
The first priority for Syria which Jolani is trying to expand on is to re-establish full-spectrum Arab-to-Arab ties with KSA, UAE, and the Persian Gulf shiekdoms. Second is to reevaluate ties to Iran and to remove Axis of Resistance presence in Syria, which is gonna take a longer-than-anticipated amount of time as Iran will never let go of Syria THAT easy, (hence the Iranian supreme leader’s total hostility to Joliani as expressed on multiple occasions in his rhetoric) so he will gonna need any help he would get from Iran’s regional foes to accomplish that magnificent ‘feat’.
The third is to avoid getting caught in the U.S. vs Russia crossfire. In order to fulfill that, he would most likely need to appease both sides one way or another, but making that ‘balance’ is very hard to do at this stage as Russia does not play like that and seeks to restore its past security, military, and intelligence capacity that it used to have for a long time in Syria. On the other hand, Syria could really take advantage of that sweet ‘foreign aid’ that he could get from the EU and the US much to the chagrin of Moscow as those aids have some really serious ‘attachments’ to them and they are not handed out with no strings attached, and it is exactly those ‘strings’ that Moscow and also Iran are most worried about.
I don’t care about Jolani’s past and they are irreleavnt at this stage. All I care about is to see if he will stick to his words regarding his ‘display’ of moderation and diplomacy. I wish him and all the Syrians who have been suffering at the hands of the Axis of Resistance for 10+ years the best of luck.