CNN — Syrian opposition forces have taken control of much of the country’s second largest city Aleppo, according to residents in the city and video verified by CNN. A rebel alliance launched a surprise attack this week, sweeping eastward through villages outside the city and reigniting a conflict that had been largely static for years. It is the first time Syrian rebels have set foot in Aleppo since government forces regained control during the civil war in 2016.
By Saturday morning, rebel fighters had taken control of large swathes of the city, according to footage geolocated by CNN. Rebel fighters have been seen at key locations, with one video showing armed men waving an opposition flag and yelling “God is great” in Arabic at a central square. Another clip shows rebels at the city’s citadel, which is also in central Aleppo. At least one man in the clip is armed, as he says: “We are the first to arrive and the first to conquer.” The only exception appears to be the northeastern part of the city, where a few neighborhoods remain under the control of government forces and Iranian militia allies.
The rebel forces have declared a 24 hour curfew to begin at 5 p.m. local time Saturday, which they said was to ensure “the safety of the residents of the city and to secure private and public property from tampering or harm.”
Syria’s defense ministry said dozens of soldiers have been killed in the Aleppo offensive. It acknowledged that rebel forces had entered the city but claimed that they “were unable to establish solid positions” and reinforcements were arriving in preparation for a counteroffensive.
It appears the advancing rebels met little resistance from the Syrian army, with several residents inside Aleppo telling CNN that there has been minimal fighting in the city’s urban areas. In response to the rebel advance, the Russian air force on Friday launched an aerial offensive against Syrian armed opposition forces in Aleppo and Idlib provinces, Russian state media reported.
Kurdish forces have also expanded their control of some neighborhoods of Aleppo, residents said. Prior to this week’s attack they held two Kurdish neighborhoods but have now moved into areas that the Syrian regime used to control. The Kurdish militia, known as the YPG, have a history of conflict with other rebel groups in northern Syria. There has already been one clash Saturday between members of the rebel alliance and Kurdish fighters inside the city, according to video analyzed by CNN. Part of the rebel coalition says it now intends to launch an offensive against the Kurdish groups holding parts of northern Aleppo province.
The rebels are part of a newly formed coalition called the “Military Operations Command,” which includes a broad spectrum of opposition fighters including Islamist factions and moderate groups once backed by the US. The coalition was announced Wednesday ahead of the attack on Aleppo and said it was responding to escalating attacks from the Syrian government and Iranian militias. But the timing is also critical, with Syria’s key backer Russia focusing on Ukraine and its other major ally, Iran, on the back foot from Israeli attacks on it and its proxy network.
The offensive is the first major flare-up in years between the Syrian opposition and the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, who has ruled the war-torn country since 2000. Syria’s civil war began during the 2011 Arab Spring as the regime suppressed a pro-democracy uprising against Assad. The country plunged into a full-scale civil war as a rebel force was formed, known as the Free Syrian Army, to combat government troops. Since the 2020 ceasefire agreement, the conflict has remained largely dormant, with low-level clashes between the rebels and Assad’s regime. More than 300,000 civilians have been killed in more than a decade of war, according to the United Nations, and millions of people have been displaced across the region.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/30/middleeast/syrian-rebels-control-aleppo-city-intl/index.html
I wanted to wait a day before addressing this latest round of fighting in Syria. It does appear the rebels have taken Aleppo and south down the M5 to Khan Shaykhoun. How far they go is anyone’s guess. I’m sure there are plenty of jihadis among the rebels of what is now called the Military Operations Command (or Command of Military Operations) based in Idlib. Levant24, a media group also based in Idlib is calling it the Syrian National Army and the offensive is the “Dawn of Freedom” operation. It is an amalgamation of 13 groups totalling 60,000 troops including HTS under Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Although HTS was at one time an al Qaeda affiliate, Golani broke from al Qaeda in 2016. They have allowed Christian church services in Idlib. The Druze community in Idlib Provence have thrown in with the MOC or SNA. But I’ve still seen videos of jihadis vowing to kill and enslave anyone who is not a jihadi.
The Russians remaining in Syria have pulled out of numerous positions around Aleppo and Deir ez Zor. They’re probably consolidating around their port in Tartus. Much of the Hezbollah and IRGC personnel withdrew earlier due to their war with Israel leaving a vacuum in the region. Syria is too important to both Russia and Iran for them to allow Syria to fall without a serious fight. Their pullback will most likely lead to an eventual renewed offensive against these rebels/jihadis. However, it appears Assad has hastily flown to Moscow with his family. Perhaps he’s not so sure about that eventual renewed offensive or he’s desperately seeking more Russian assistance. Either way, the optics are poor.
The rebel forces were trained. equipped and organized by Turkey. I think I’m safe in claiming that. I’m sure Ankara is calling all the shots in the offensive. The rebels have used Turkish M-60 tanks and have been able to drive off Russian aircraft with MANPADS. The rebels have also made liberal use of drones against the government forces. I wonder where they learned that? What’s in it for Türkiye? It’s no secret she want’s northern Syria to become part of Türkiye. Already there has been a flow of refugees flowing out of Türkiye back into the newly liberated regions of Idlib and Aleppo. That couldn’t have happened this fast without prior planning in Ankara.
The YPG Kurds in the north of Aleppo are still there. They are in a precarious position and are seeking to avoid a major confrontation with the Idlib rebels. I don’t know how long that will last.
TTG
https://apnews.com/article/syria-hts-assad-aleppo-fighting-2be43ee530b7932b123a0f26b158ac22
https://levant24.com/news/national/2024/11/sna-launches-dawn-of-freedom-operation/
I’m sure the Israelis, neocons and regime changers are super excited about this operation.
“Golani broke from al Qaeda in 2016”
But in their hearts are they not still AQ?
Have the Druze been allow to keep their faith? No, still forced convertion or execution.
Let’s see how long moderation last if they get power over Syria
Poul,
I know. It’s almost a joke.
No. Wait a second…. It is a joke. Has to be. A bad joke.
Golani wakes up one day and says to himself, “You know, all that Salafist stuff I used to believe is a bunch of crap. I think I’ll just become an apostate in the eyes of my followers and buddies. Who cares if it’s a mortal sin caring the death penalty? I’ll convince them to come along with me”.
And then all of his guys actually agree. They have a big get together and denounce Salafist ideology and declare that all forms of Islam are equally legitimate, as is Christianity, Druze and even Jews. Then they sing march off to war singing Kumbaya.
Or maybe the bastards have learned to use taqiyya better so they can brand themselves in a way that the useful idiots in the west will accept. More of McCain’s “moderate” rebels fighting against the very very bad Syrian government. Why that awful Al Assad, he arrests and tortures people (who happen to be jihadist rebels – but shhhh – mums the word).
Hear, hear.
Head chopping is still a thing in HTS.
https://x.com/joshua_landis/status/1864495499920712001
“Syria’s Shia and Alawis, who are captured by HTS, are told that they will have their heads “chopped off.”
The desire for revenge is strong after 13 brutal years of civil war.”
Joshua Landis speaks Arabic so he can tell what is been said.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_Landis
Poul,
Yep. Disgusting that the US is allowing this and NATO members are aiding and abetting it. Alawis, Christians, Syria – all not sacred like Ukraine and Zelensky.
Poul –
And yet they exchanged the hundreds of female Alawites cadets captured earlier.
So what happened in that earlier video? Did anyone lose their head?
These rebels are primarily jihadis. Perhaps there are a small number who are not, but they will be absorbed into the jihadi cause, or killed off; just like the last time. As you note, the jihadis are already vowing to make that happen. When the jihadis gain full control of the rebellion, the Christians in Idlib and elsewhere will be persecuted in the extreme. That is the way it always goes. Water will never start flowing up hill because of wishful fantasies that it could.
Yes, Turkey is behind much of this. Turkey should be kicked out of NATO. I hope Russia punishes those belligerent morons in a way that really hurts.
It is beginning to appear that the Syrian government and Russia have recovered from their initial shock and are now responding effectively. This action – not by accident -corresponds with the cease fire in Lebanon. So Hizballah will now be free to join the fray on the Syrian govt’s part. I wonder if Iranian forces will get involved on the Syrian govt’s side.
These jihadis will be killed off, in time, but there will be much death and destruction in the process. Did I mention that Turkey should be kicked out of NATO?
The US, Israel and Turkey have probably miscalculated that Syria’s allies – Russia, Hezbollah and Iran – have become too weakened and distracted to fight back. IMO, Russia will simply respond with bigger and better weapons than previously so as to end this nonsense more quickly and decisively.
I am very curious how the Syrian govt and Russia missed the staging of an attack of this size. I’m sure the US was aware of it and, of course, in its zeal to remove Al Assad in favor of jihadis, failed to act or at least alert Russia and Syria.
Eric Newhill,
How did the Syrian government and Russia miss the staging of an attack of this size? It appears the head of the Syrian General intelligence Directorate may have been in on it. General Hussam Louka reported launched a coup in Damascus.
The rebels/jihadis took Homs. At least government forces are now destroying their arms and ammo dumps before leaving.
TTG,
And the Russians have no eyes or ears?
Nor the Iranians?
I hate giving jihadists credit for anything, but their OPSEC is very intriguing. I would love to know the details.
Maybe it is as simple as all intel from all sources bottlenecked at this Louka guy. I find that a little hard to believe, but….maybe?
TTG,
I’m watching Syrian news feeds. The government + Russia definitely stopping the insurgents and pushing them in back already in some areas.
Also, the insurgents, across the front lines, being interviewed are consistently referring to themselves as “mujahideen”. So much for the kinder gentler insurgent schtick. Very funny.
IMO, these guys are seeking to be the Taliban of Syria. They must be wiped out. If the US government had any shame the US would help. De Oppresso Liber? Unless you think that the Taliban represents liberty. Do the people in DC hate Russia so much that they will allow what is happening in Syria (rhetorical question)?
Eric Newhill,
The word “mujahideen” is the Arabic word for “jihadist”. I would assume they have been taught media relations by the Green Berets that are embedded with them.
If you look at all of our allies in the region – Qatar, Kuwait, KSA, Bahrain – they all have official religions of “Wahabi Islam”. Syria has no official religion – it has full western style separation of church and state. To the people in DC, that will not do.
James,
I do not think there are GBs imbedded with the insurgents. As muj/jihadis, they would kill the GBs, probably by head chopping on live feed.
Now I see that Iraq has joined the fight on Syria’s part. Iran has sent in troops. Russia and Syria going strong.
Only the US and NATO partner Turkey allow the head chopping and pillaging to continue because Syria is not sovereign like the sacred soil of the very not-corrupt Ukraine.
Anyhow, these crazy jihadis are going to be wiped out. Good riddance.
Now it is revealed that the US is directly supporting the head choppers by bombing Iranian aligned forces coming up from Iraq.
Eric Newhill,
The US is bombing/strafing IRGC-controlled militias as they’re heading into Syria. These are the same militias that were taking pot shot at our troops for more than a year. Now that they’re lining up on roads, they’re getting what they deserve at the hands of our warthogs.
This doesn’t seem directly related to the jihadi offensive from Idlib. The YPG/SDF is taking on the IRGC/SAA forces near Deir ez Zor on the east bank of the Euphrates. There’s a group of 7 villages that the IRGC militias are trying to reinforce against the YPG/SDF assaults.
On the positive side, the US and Russia have opened up a deconfliction line for events in Syria.
TTG,
Yes. I know all of that about the ICRG fighters. You know I’d like to see them all get zapped. However, I see no reason to be so blood thirsty that one becomes short sighted and short changed.
Why not allow the Iranians to go into combat against the Sunni head choppers? Let the ICRG be useful for once. Let those guys kill each other. Then we can kill whoever survives.
TTG,
I forgot to address your assertion that the ICRG forces are going after Kurds and not sunni jihadists.
It would be strangely coincidental timing that the ICRG guys decided now to attack Kurds. All reporting that I’ve seen has them moving into Syria to assist against the jihadists.
Eric Newhill,
Our warthogs have been targeting the IRGC-backed militias in the 7 villages along the Euphrates near Deir ez Zor. They were held by those militias and units of the SAA. The SAA units pulled out for obvious reasons and other militias were heading north to hold those positions. The warthogs hit them on the move. The Deir ez Zor Military Council (the Arab component within the SDF) decided to strike at this time to reclaim those villages. They’ve already recaptured at least two of the villages.
TTG,
I’m not buying that. The Syrians are saying saying that Iranian troops are heading in to fight the jihadis. The Iranians are saying that they are there to support the Syrian government in the fight against the jihadis. The only source saying otherwise is you.
Eric Newhill and TTG,
I think it is clear that the Kurds and the jihadis have a Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and they have divided Syria between themselves.
And the US always betrays the Kurds:
https://theintercept.com/2019/10/07/kurds-syria-turkey-trump-betrayal/
James,
Yes. I agree. The Kurds are US proxies. Their war chiefs know they are kites that the US can loose at any time, but the chiefs are getting paid well by the US. So they are willing to play the game. It’s similar to Hamas and their war chiefs and UN money. The chiefs are Machiavellians to the marrow. Only tools believe the fine sounding words about getting their own country, freedom, justice, democracy, sovereignty and all that jazz.
Eric Newhill,
The Rojava Kurds are US proxies today. Back in 2014, they were holed up in Kobani about to be slaughtered by ISIS. We started bombing the shit out of ISIS and dropping weapons to the YPG/YPJ in Kobani. Not that long after that we sent in a couple of A teams and the YPG/YPJ began kicking the ISIS ass. They’ve been our steadfast anti-ISIS ally since then. The SDF came later.
I’m sorry for the Syrian soldiers and civilians. The terrorists are already boasting with videos of beheading and shooting Syrian POWs. SAA was caught off guard and the Turks couldn’t have pulled this through without the support of the Israelis and USA. The psy-op is very strong, also (I’m sure Assad didn’t go to Moscow with his family). I guess the operation have the similar fate like the Ukrainian Kursk offensive, SAA has lost face and many lives, but will return all territory occupied by terrorists.
I have a question for Eric. When Trumps formally becomes president, most likely the Israelis will escalate with the bombing and invading Lebanon and Gaza, probably more bombing of Syria and maybe Iran, with the goal of drawing in the US armed forces.
Are you still ok with full USA support/intervention for Israel, when Israel escalates and s. hits the fan?
Jovan,
I think Trump will bring peace. I do not think blessing further Israeli action in Gaza or Lebanon is what he wants to do. It was Trump who got the Abraham Accords going and they are, miracle of miracles, holding. He wants to expand peace treaties. That said, he doesn’t control the IDF. There will have to be something in the deal for Israel. Trump will make sure it is there.
Hizballah now has a more important focus. They need to come to Syria’s aid. Contrary to what you might believe, Israel is not the number 1 concern of the people of Lebanon. Not getting invaded, sooner or later, by a bunch of Sunni salafists is far higher on their priority list. So Hezballah will buy into the deal.
Hamas? They are just about finished as a fighting force. Beyond being very well paid puppets of the UN and of Iran, they are no one’s concern except their own. They will either beat their swords into plowshares, or be completely eliminated from the face of the earth. It’s up to them. I think Trump is smart enough to get around the UN and Iran and find away to divert all of that aid money to the people of Gaza – as opposed to the psychopathic Hamas pseudo-government – provided they elect a more civilized representative government. If the people still want Hamas, then they will all perish, as they should.
You very correctly decry the jihadist terrorists attacking the Al Assad government and Syrian people, chopped heads in hand – but you don’t decry the actions of Hamas, which are very similar. Strange. A jihadist is a jihadist is a jihadist. It doesn’t matter what excuse they offer for their terrorism. None of them are “freedom fighters”. Justice, freedom, peace and all the other things you value will never come in the wake of a terrorist victory.
Jovan,
Observe Trump’s Senior MENA Advisor, Massad Boulos, a Lebanese businessman.
Interesting but Massad Boulos, by his prior political affiliations in Lebanon, has connections to groups that have worked side by side Hibz’Allah in a political fashion. Many people do not realise that Hizb’Allah has societal and charity wings. He was a member of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) which are Christian allies of Hizb’Allah. He also ran for Lebanese government on a list that included Communists. Politics makes for interesting bedfellows. Associated with Hizb’Allah and Communists, who would have thought it? Even if you dont agree with his views you cant argue he doesnt know what he is talking about.
Stefan,
Yes. My point is that he’s not a zionist. He can build bridges. People like you need to get it through your heads that Israel isn’t going anywhere, Hamas is evil, the Palestinians are not getting anything they want other than a Gaza that’s their’s to build up or destroy and, at the same time, peace and prosperity can be attained for all.
Eric,
You need to control yourself. I dont think Israel is going anywhere. I would add that the Palestinians are going anywhere either. Hamas is evil and so is the current Israeli leadership. This is what happens in family battles. The Israeli/Palestinian conflict is so bitter because it is a family fight. The rest of the world needs to stay out of it. No arms, no cash, nothing. Let them sort it out on their own. The reason why the conflicted has lasted as long as it has is because both sides are being funded and supported. Withdraw all support for both sides there will be a solution in short order.
Stefan,
There is no way that a) the Palestinians can live in Israel. They would vote to kill all of the Jews and take their stuff one day. As you say, zero sum thinking. b) the Palestinians can be given a country next to Israel. They would use it as a base to build a military to attack Israel – which is pretty much what they did with Gaza.
So your solutions would result in Israel “going somewhere”; e.g. into the sea.
Eric,
some people Trump chooses give hope that this time he won’t be surrounded by war hawks. Still, I’m not an optimist. As Putin put it, when you get elected (wherever) people in black suits come.
As for Israel – Palestine, it’s seems you use only the Israli POV, not the Palestinian. Even if you perceive them as the enemy, you have to try to look through their eyes.
Thank you Barack Obama for entangling us in the mess years ago.
Just in time for a screw the new administration. Sadly we don’t have CJCS like Dempsey on active duty now. At least we don’t have first in his class Pompeo either. Should we take odds on the White Helmets showing up? Christmas or New Years day?
Fred –
Don’t take that bet, you’ll lose. They never left, they’ve been there in Idlib Province all along:
https://x.com/SyriaCivilDef
Thank you Trump for keeping the US troops in Syria (to steal their oil), and then publicly bragged about it.
Jake Sullivan, back in 2012, told his then-boss Hillary Clinton “Al-Qaeda is on our side ins Syria”.
TonyL,
No no no. First in his class was advising it was all about Iran. Or is that the current logic of those who need to get the US entangled somewhere so that we keep pumping out billions of $ that just somehow manage to make thier way to the folks in Europe going broke because they were all in on sacred Ukraine?
Timing is just so convenient, isn’t it. Zelensky making peace talk, and the IDF stops short of the line they got stopped cold at in 2006? Let’s not think of 2011 or anything else the west did prior to orange man bad.
After the 2020 ceasefire there used to be Joint Turkish/Russian patrols keeping the peace. But that stopped when Putin pulled his ground troops out of Syria so he could invade a country about 1000 miles north of Aleppo. So now Erdogan figures if Russia can get away with re-establishing the Russian Empire, then Turkey can resurrect the Ottoman Empire.
South of Aleppo the Syrian Army along with some Iranian IRGC are standing their ground in the city of Hama. But opposition forces have gone around Hama and are halfway to Homs. They’re getting support from local uprisings against Assad that are happening in some areas. And there are anti-regime demonstrations in the countryside around Damascus.
Kurds in the Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhood of Aleppo city captured three infiltrating terrorists. North of Aleppo in Afrin and Shabha cantons, Kurdish villages say they are being shelled by Turkish artillery. But militias there thwarted attacks by what they called Turkish mercenaries. And SDF civilian authorities sent buses to evacuate students and their families from Aleppo.
Meanwhile Assad is reportedly back from Moscow. Egypt says they stand by Syria, but will they send troops or is that just rhetoric?
Leith,
What ground forces were those? From the publicly available info and prior discussions on SST the Russians had less than 5,000 people engaged in Syria in support of the SSA and that includes the 50 or less aircraft and maintenance tail need to support them.
Fred,
Those 5,000 troops consisted of technical specialists, advisors along with several thousand Spetsnaz and military police. Those military police were Spetsnaz battalions that were redesignated military police before their deployments. What marked those 5,000 troops is that they were well trained experts, not the cannon fodder with 2 weeks training now available to Moscow. There were also around 3,000 Wagner PMC types
Fred –
What TTG said above. But I believe Wagner got an additional 2000 in late 2017 for a total of 5000.
And there were GRU, FIS and FSB contingents there in Syria as well. Plus much of the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla were dedicated to provide land-attack missile strikes.
PS – In 2022, Assad “loaned” 2000 Syrian soldiers to fight in Ukraine from the famous Tiger Forces of Colonel Suheil al-Hassan.
Leith,
So said the ever reliable Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Where does that guy get his never erroneous information?
Fred –
The claim that Syrians are fighting in Ukraine was also mentioned by Admiral Kirby during a Pentagon brief. Plus Ukraine has taken some Syrians in Russian uniforms as POWs. Wikipedia reports that Russia has also recruited Nepalis, Indians, Serbs and Africans. Anything to keep from having to call up a mass mobilization. So I’m not surprised Putin also recruited Syrians.
SOHR has been accused of being both anti-Assad and anti-Jolani. It seems neither side likes them, so they must be doing something good.
leith,
Kirby repeated what SOHR said or said that on his own? And we’ve gone from 2,000 tiger force members to ‘some Syrians’. Thanks.
Fred –
The Pentagon relies on US intel three-letter agencies plus Five-Eyes. Definitely not SOHR.
Leith,
LOL and SOHR gets his information from…..
Lets not forget Trunp got in on it and attacked Syria as well. But other than that Eric and I will be in rare agreement. Unfortunately the media almost uniformly is calling them “rebels” instead of what they are, head chopping religious extremists.
I hope they are rolled back and Idlib is finally dealt with. It is a festering sore that must be dealt with for Syria to have any peace. Assad is certainly the lesser of two evils.
Stefan,
Trump lobbed a few missiles at a defunct target after warning he would do it. Hardly even a symbolic gesture to appease the blood thirsty neocon entranced US press.
Trump also sent US troops after the jihadists commonly and collectively referred to as “ISIS”. That helped Syria.
Otherwise, yes, this is a rare occasion in which you and I agree on a matter of importance.
And yes, I find it nauseating the way the US press and politicians (is there a difference other than when it comes to Trump?) call the head choppers “rebels”.
Fortunately, I think this bloody little neocon/Turk/Takfiri violent orgasmic fantasy of overthrowing Syria will be over shortly. Trump can’t take office a day too soon.
Stefan,
” Assad is certainly the lesser of two evils.” The Borg probably believe Trump sees it that way too and thus made their move now. Lots of America’s enemies would like to see us tied up in another foreign war during his administration too. So would some of our ‘allies’.
The takfiriyeen (head choppers) will not hold onto ground for long. In a year or less they will be all bottled up in Idlib again. It just means more death and destruction for the average Syrians in that area. But what do the neo-cons/pro Israeli types care? They have never care at all if Arabs die. 1,000,000 in Iraq, 500,000+ in Syria, ect. They could care less.
If Trump wants to do something do something about the Turks. Islamists in sheep’s clothing is what the government is there. They need to be out of NATO, they need to be forever banned from the EU. Until that government changes and is replaced with a more democratic and secular government they are a threat.
Stefan,
Which EU governments support getting Turkey out of NATO? Maybe ask Macron or CharlesIII or even whoever is still running Germany to get off their asses and do something. Why is regime change in Turkey something Trump must do?
The Colonel always insisted the SAA was making a big mistake not focusing on clearing Idlib first. He was prophetic.
He also held a low opinion of the IDF. Fit more for shooting civilians than war fighting. I expect the IDF does have some useful units but not many. Be that as it may, Europe’s backing it. To the hilt. Intel, weapons, such diplomatic support as we can offer. Even Germany:-
“Over the past seven months, the Values Initiative Association and the German–Israeli Association (DIG) have worked to enlist these refugees from war-torn Muslim-majority countries as mercenaries for Israel. Offered monthly salaries ranging between €4,000 to €5,000 and fast-tracked German citizenship, many have joined the fight. Reports suggest that around 4,000 immigrants were naturalized between September and October alone,” writes The Cradle columnist Mohamed Nader al-Omari.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-firms-compete-huge-contracts-control-north-gaza-security
That links to material that, if true, makes a fool of both the ICC and the ICJ.
https://thecradle.co/articles/us-mercenary-firms-compete-for-huge-contracts-to-control-security-in-north-gaza-report
As for the Jihadi onslaught out of Idlib, everyone’s saying it’s Erdogan being slippery. Must say, when I first heard of it I assumed it was another Hail Mary from the Biden team. A Kursk type offensive in Syria. Presumably it’ll meet with the same success but it’ll serve to muddy the waters.
Also notice that our headchoppers of choice are again being cosmeticised. BBC’s taken to calling them just “rebels”. Reminds me of the term “moderate rebels” that David Cameron used of the various Al Qaeda offshoots we employed in our earlier attempts to get rid of Assad.
Wonder how many more Hail Marys the vengeful man in the White House will pull before Trump takes over.
……………………..
Getting uneasy about Trump. The big names in the anti-neocon camp are saying Trump’s a con man and will carry on with the neocon agenda as before. That he himself is one of the neocons.
I’m not naïve enough to believe that Trump will put a stake through their hearts on day one. Neocons aren’t as easy to get rid of as all that. But I did believe, from 2016 on, that Trump held to the view that the business of America is business, not laying waste this or that region in the name of Freedom and Democracy.
And that my own country, which urgently needs to stop pouring money and effort into such ventures, would follow suit and get down to day to day business. I have never liked it when HMG comes up with embarrassing sentiments such as “Delivering the leadership that the world turns to Great Britain to actually provide.” That’s not only foolish. It seriously impedes the true business of government, which is to look after the country.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-munich-security-conference
So I hope all those big names in the anti-neocon camp have it wrong. One doesn’t expect miracles from a Trump Presidency. Merely a little more sanity than has been in evidence so far from Washington.
EO<
Col Lang had some weird ideas sometimes. For example, he totally blew it when a situation analogous to what is happening in Syria, arose in Libya. He supported the overthrow of Qadafi in favor of the "rebels" (who were, of course, actually and obviously, head choppers). Some of us even told him, at the time, that he was off his rocker. Being a good man, after the fighting, when Libya became another jihadist run crap hole, the good Col did admit how wrong he had been.
Col Lang thought the IDF is only good for shooting children? Well, the IDF just screwed Hamas and Hezballah good and hard just as they did to the Arabs in '72, '67…….yeah – that was another of his weird ideas. I think it arose from his romantic view of Islam which, in turn, came from the yearning to be a Lawernce of Arabia type guy. I suspect a lot of SF men of that era had Lawernce of Arabia type fantasies (now a days they seem to want more to be badass door kickers and trigger pullers).
I think you said to LeaNder you’d been a contributor to/reader of SST since the early days, Eric. Not me. A friend put me on to it in 14/15, so I’m a latecomer and, of course, an outsider always.
A unique man and a unique pilgrimage. The range of his activities and of his interests was immense. His take on the Ukraine war never bothered me as it bothered so many. It was a matter of honour that proxies should not be abandoned – he’d seen too much of it – and that was that.
As General Kellog said, that was not a consideration for the Biden administration. If it ever was it ceased to be so by late ’22 and for that administration the war was merely as a means of weakening the RF. On the cheap, as your politicians pointed out so often, but not on the cheap when it came to Ukrainian casualties. That would have grated on him, as would also our insistence that the Ukrainians should feed their young into the killing fields, not ours of course, even as we ourselves were abandoning them.
Perhaps a mercy he did not live to see the final abandonment.
As a professional soldier he didn’t think much of the quality of the IDF. Rightly so, I believe. Their glory days were long past by the time he was stationed there. The sort of work they are put to does not enhance fighting quality. Not for Westerners anyway, though fighting men from some other cultures can take atrocities in their stride and still be effective troops.
No Lawrence of Arabia type fantasies. Absolutely not! I take it you’ve read “Tattoo” as well as the articles here.
Didn’t take to the neocons. Not at all. Saw too much of them, and how they screwed up American and therefore Western foreign policy. This is one sample – you’ll maybe remember it – of what he thought of them.
https://web.archive.org/web/20090609172955/http:/www.mepc.org/journal_vol11/0406_lang.asp
What the colonel didnt seem to get is that any government that falls in the Middle East and North Africa will be replaced by a Islamist dictator. These governments have spent decades making sure there are no secular/democratic alternatives to their rule that could be supported by the west. The only established alternatives in these countries are religious and conservative in nature. So religious parties, especially the Ikhwan, are the groups that will step in if/when any government falls. This is a truth that runs from North Africa to Yemen. So whereas I would like to see the dictators and monarchies fall across the region I temper that with the knowledge that they would be replaced with religious fanatics.
Stefan,
Once I again, I mostly agree with you. I’ve checked my temperature and I’m not feverish; nor have I consumed any mind altering drugs recently, only one beer into the evening. I don’t believe I have a brain tumor, nor that I am possessed by demons. This is very strange.
So, please allow me to ask a question of you. You said, “These governments have spent decades making sure there are no secular/democratic alternatives to their rule that could be supported by the west. The only established alternatives in these countries are religious and conservative in nature.”
Please explain. Why is head chopping fanaticism the only alternative to secular – or quasi-secular governance – in these countries? How is that binary choice established?
Not interested in theories on why Col Lang held certain beliefs, but why you thinking what you do.
I base this on education, experience, travel in the region and reading Arabic media for the last couple of decades. The regimes in the Middle East and North Africa have made a conscious decision to allow only limited dissent and that from religious groups, no democrats allowed. The main reason is so there would be no valid democratic groups for the west to rally behind. It has forced them, in places like Syria, to support the head choppers. Which the west has done. It is also because people in the MENA region are societally conditioned to be zero sum thinkers. It is our way, or our way. There is little to no compromise.
Stefan,
Makes some sense.
Re; zero sum thinkers – I said that and you called me a racist.
Eric,
Wrong. I have ALWAYS said Middle Easterners, including Israelis, are zero sum thinkers. I called you racist because you made openly racist comments using racist terminology and epithets. Do you deny that? You can go back and search your own comments.
Dont make racist statements using racist terminology and I wont call you a racist.
Stefan,
And saying that an entire group of people are zero sum thinkers somehow doesn’t qualify as racism? I happen to agree that they are zero sum thinkers, but it is the kind of statement that many, in these oversensitive times, would label as racist.
Stefan,
It is the US that is supporting the head choppers in the MENA. We are currently supporting the head choppers in Syria, and we have bases in Qatar, UAE, and if I am not mistaken KSA … to protect and keep in power the head choppers in those countries. We killed Gaddafi to help the head choppers take power in Libya.
Britain sided with the head choppers a long time ago and the US followed their lead. Mark Curtis wrote a book about it:
https://www.amazon.com/Secret-Affairs-Britains-Collusion-Radical/dp/1788160223
Well, the monarchy in KSA are turning out to be average, run of the mill absolute monarchists these days. They are not religious extremists anymore. Their conservative head choppers have been contained. Unmarried couples can now register in hotels together, as can same sex couples. It is a center for sports and concerts in the Middle East as well as festivals. Women are driving, men and women mingling all of the time. This all at the direction of MbS. Things can and will change in the region if the dictators want to. KSA was seen as the center of Islamic extremism, now they are a target of those same people who see it as the home of degeneracy. All of these places care more about power than religion. For them religion was ALWAYS about being the opiate of the masses.
Back when I lived in England in the 1990s and 2000s I’d always run into members of the Saudi ruling class in London and Europe during Ramadan. Eating, drinking, partying, “pulling” as many white women as they could. It was never about religion for these types. It was about power and control. They used religion to control the masses and disregarded it for themselves. Some of them are just throwing away the religion fig leaf these days.
James – right back to the time of Warren Hastings that was British colonial strategy.
It’s expensive in manpower to gain control of and thus loot other countries or regions by means of the direct application of overwhelming military force. The big continental empires with big standing armies could do it in and around Europe, and did do it often enough. But Britain was never in that league.
Nor were the other European colonial powers, when it came to grabbing stuff outside Europe. It’s always been prohibitively expensive shipping big armies and their supplies to distant shores.
It’s true that sometimes the occupants of the target countries or regions were so technologically backward that “We have got the Maxim gun and they have not” could come into play. Superior brute force worked for us against the Zulus and for the Germans against the Hereros, but you needed a big technological gap to get away with that. Otherwise it was a question of stirring up the local tribes or factions, backing one of them, and gaining control that way.
Revolting business, but that’s how it was done. It’s pure myth to assert it was not also done in what some call the post-colonial era. We were fooling around in the Yemen playing one side off against the other until quite recently – I wrote in to the Colonel’s site once on that – and of course everyone, not just us, has been at it ever since. The French are probably the most accomplished, as you’d expect from that subtle nation, and the Americans, who quite often have humanitarian qualms about this sort of work, perhaps the least so. We Brits are somewhere around the middle.
Trouble is, the occupants have become more savvy these days. The Africans, for instance, are getting fed up with being little more than resource bases for the Western countries and are moving towards genuine decolonisation. The Arabs and surrounding areas, however, are still fairly easy to stir up and use against each other so we’re still at it full tilt there.
The factions of choice for us in the ME at present are the Kurds, though we’re off and on with them so much they don’t know whether they’re coming or going most of the time. And the way out fundamentalists. Jihadis, Daesh, Takfiris, Wahhabis, Al Qaeda, the Caliphate enthusiasts – the names aren’t that important, just the fact that they’re easy to set in motion and they make good suicide bombers and headchoppers.
Those are the factions we use at present. We had a go with them in Chechnya but it didn’t come off. Still trying though, in Dagestan. Anywhere the materials are there to be used, really.
They’re the factions we used in our attempts to get rid of Assad. We’re still having a go there but I doubt it’ll come off. Won’t be for want of trying.
Stefan,
Unmarried *foreign* couples can now rent rooms together in KSA. Yes – that is a change, but it is nowhere near as liberal as in areas controlled by Assad, where women can walk around in booty shorts and halter tops if they like.
A Russian report claims Russian intel knew an attack was simmering but believed it would happen around March. It’s certainly plausible with the situations in Israel and Ukraine having swiftly turned in the wrong direction.
If there ever was a time for the US to use one of the last rickety tools it has it would be now. Terrorists cells aren’t known for doing a good job, not even a half ass job but they will absolutely do something temporarily which is all that is needed. It will eventually kickback and cause some nasty injuries though. Especially to a new President down the road who isn’t exactly fond of the CIA for very good reasons.
Rumors flying on twitter that Major General Suhayl al Hasan wounded by a drone attacl on Jabal Zayn al-Abidin just outside Hama City. Bad news if true.
https://x.com/search?q=Jabal%20Zayn%20al-Abidin&src=typed_query&f=live
The BBC’s not going overboard with the whitewashing of the Al Qaeda offshoots used for the attack.
“Inside Aleppo: Family reunions, nervousness at rebel rule and fear of war”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgreznl929o
So a somewhat half-hearted Hail Mary after all. It felt at the start like the Kursk offensive and it now looks as if that comparison is valid. The question now is how difficult it will be to clear Aleppo and whether the counter-offensive will carry through into Idlib.
Pre-planned. Israelis involved, and the Americans of course. That’ll mean us Brits too. This wasn’t a bunch of wild-assed Jihadis suddenly irrupting from the hills. We, the mugs in the Western electorates, will take the story we’re fed and look no further. It’s what we’re good at.
If Trump wants to show he is different on day 1 he should drop all sanctions on Assad and urge US allies to do the same.
Stefan
Spoiler Alert! He is not different.
Operation timber sycamore is alive and well as are its spin offs.
I know. I dont expect Trump to really change things. Trump has no core beliefs of his own. He likes to make deals, he likes power and adulation. Anything that gives him those are things he will strive for even if they are ideologically complete opposites.
I do think he has some awareness, as in how he had previously said that the Israelis are not interested in peace or compromise, but that is a rather low threshold. I dont think anyone of an average IQ can contend otherwise at this point.
He might stumble into something that turns out right. he appoints someone for US ambassador to Israel that is more Zionist than Netanyahu. but then appoints someone as senior middle east advisor that has past links to Hizb’Allah. Admittedly it is a family member, but maybe he is onto something.
TTG – just come across Crooke’s take. At 1o mins, he gives some background.
https://youtu.be/KEvZlTYpsz4?t=601
At 22 minutes Alastair Crooke looks at the response of the Russians and others.
Where does this leave Hamas? Previously they were backing the Jihadis. Presumably no longer?
All Russian ships reportedly left the Port of Tartus – 3 frigates and 2 aux and a Kilo class sub.
Thee options:
1] Are they temporarily moving out of harm’s way from drone attacks and will return when situation stabilizes?
2] Are they going to sea to fire missiles at the Jolani’s forces in Aleppo and Idlib and those attacking Hama?
3] Or are they going to head to the Baltic and abandon their 50-year old Naval Base there?
I’m thinking a combination of option 1 and 2.
https://bsky.app/profile/mtanderson.bsky.social/post/3lcfvjbvl4c25
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/12/first-sign-russian-navy-evacuating-naval-vessels-from-tartus-syria/
leith,
Turkey will allow reinforcement of the Black Sea Fleet? I don’t see that happening.
I believe I said Baltic, not Black.
But I don’t believe that will happen. They will not abandon a base they’ve had for more than half a century. It’s their only Naval Base outside of Russia. unless you count the tiny Ochamchire Port in Abkhazia on the Black Sea. But is that even fully operational yet?
HTS have reportedly captured some BM-30 Smerch long range MRLs still loaded with missiles. Smerch is a long range system, 120 km for even the older rockets, or 200 km if they’ve received the newer version.
Perhaps that’s why Russian warships are leaving their Tartus naval base? Those rockets could also conceivably hit Russia’s strategic Khmeimim Airfield That is, if HTS can figure out how to use it?
I think that Joshua Landis is credible enough that I am not going to end up with egg on my face. It seems that US A-10s are flying missions in Syria on the side of the head choppers. Terrific.
https://x.com/joshua_landis/status/1864042845105254409
James,
The SDF, who the warthogs are supporting, are not the head choppers. By your and Joshua Landis’ reasoning, the SAA and the Iranian militias are supporting the head choppers by attacking the YPG and SDF. The situation there is not that simple.
TTG,
The White House was saying the same thing when we were bombing Libya to depose Gaddafi.
“Libya is going to be a bastion of freedom and democracy.”
Now the head choppers rule Libya and Libya has open air slave markets. Soon the US will stab the Kurds in the back, as the US always does, and Syria will have been converted into another Libya.
As has been the plan all along:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfI6fj8Doh4
TTG,
The SDF fights the Syrian government. Yes, they also fight Turks and jihadists, but they are a corrosive element in Syria. The US supports them as part of the US policy to regime change the sovereign government of Syria (Al Assad).
As a primarily Kurdish organization, the SDF are scoundrels of the first order; ceaselessly looking for opportunities raid, pillage and generally take what is not theirs. No one who has to live near them likes them any more than anyone living near the Hells Angels likes that situation.
Why is the US running around, uninvited, in Syria? When was war declared by congress? Why is the US government doing what it can to create a vacuum in Syria that would most likely be filled by jihadists?
This is more stupid, misguided, neocon color revolution by another name. If the US government had any sense – and it does not have any – it would turn those warthogs loose on the jihadis. But the US sees the jihadis as useful at the moment. Kind of like when the jihadis were useful in Afghanistan against the Soviets, until they weren’t and turned on us.
Oh well, it was just thousands of lives lost, some Patriot Acts and a $trillion or so over 20+ years to fail to unscrew the situation in Afghanistan. It’s not like anyone is accountable for any of that goat screw; nor the one in Iraq. So yeah, you’re right, let’s do it all over again in Syrian. Sounds splendid.
James –
They were firing mortars and rockets at US troops.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-says-3-troops-being-evaluated-for-brain-injuries-after-strike-on-base-in-syria/3414718
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3983858/centcom-destroys-threatening-weapons-systems-in-syria/
Trump today issued a statement saying if all hostages in Gaza are not released by the time he is in office he will hit Palestinians harder than the US has ever hit someone in the past. If Trump actually read history, books or knew US history I would think he is threatening to use nuclear weapons against the Palestinians. Instead it just shows how enthralled he is to the swamp. The swamp is a bastion of pto Israel neo-cons. Looks like Trunp wants to get us into a war that isn’t ours on day 1 of his presidency.
This is simply the last gasp of the 2011 regime change effort in Syria. Trump, if not assassinated, takes office in less than 7 weeks. That’s why all these double-down efforts are happening now. Has everyone forgotten all the discussions on SST prior to Pat’s passing?
Quote earlier this year from Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham:
“God willing, you will be able to celebrate Eid al-Fitr in Aleppo and Damascus soon.”
They’ve already taken Aleppo. Eid is less than four months away if they’re capable of advancing to Damascus.
Reports that HTS is now fighting in Hama, if Hama falls Homs is not far behind. And then the Russians/Alawite country are cut off from the rest of Syria and things get interesting.
The use of mass-produced drones by HTS and their gallery of pals is notable. Maybe the Russian reports a couple months ago speaking of Ukrainian special forces providing drone technology/know how to the rebels wasn’t that crazy in hindsight. Although realistically the Turks are more likely to blame for diffusion of this technology/training. We have a situation in 2024 where trained squads of virtual-reality goggle Al Qaeda-lite operatives are piloting fleets of suicide drones into tanks, officers, and artillery placements. What could go wrong
Serge –
If current reports are correct the SAA has evacuated Hama and possibly Salimiyah.
https://x.com/lummideast/status/1864657777076879802
Regarding the drones, they’ve been building attack drones in Idlib for a long time:
1] Back in 2017 and 2018 there were a number of drone attacks on Russia’s Khmeimim airfield and Tartus. One of those attacks destroyed or damaged Russian aircraft. The drones used were primitive & homemade; launched from the Idlib/Latakia border. The Kremlin tried to blame it on the US. IIRC it was discussed here, but can’t find the link.
2] February this year there was an article in NorthPress News about an HTS drone factory in Idlib. The drones were supposedly designed and manufactured by Uighurs from the Turkestan Islamic Party who had emigrated to SW Idlib from China in 2013. BTW those Uighurs are from that same area of Idlib where the 2017/2018 drone attacks were launched from.
https://npasyria.com/en/111180/
3] Financial Times just published a news article titled ‘How Syria’s rebels became makers of drones and guided missiles’ . It’s paywalled, but here’s a taste: “Within its fledgling breakaway mini-state, home to between 3mn-4mn people, the rebels produce drones in small workshops based in houses, garages or converted warehouses, relying on 3D printers when they cannot access parts, according to experts”
https://www.ft.com/content/aaa80cd0-d75e-41cf-811d-20e6ecd230f8?shareType=nongift