TAIPEI, Taiwan — Lai Ching-te of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is Taiwan’s new president-elect, after a three-way election that will determine the self-ruled island’s future stance towards China. Since its founding in the 1980s as an alliance of underground dissident groups, the DPP has now secured a third term in the presidential office, a first in Taiwan’s short democratic history. This year’s election came after more than a month of intense campaigning from all three parties, each making the case that they would improve the island’s economy while best protecting Taiwan from China.
Lai’s election “portends tensions with China.” Analysts say the DPP presidential victory portends tensions with China, which has vowed to control Taiwan one day and has not ruled out a military invasion to do so. Beijing has repeatedly accused Lai of being a “separatist” and last April, Beijing sanctioned his vice presidential running mate, Bi-khim Hsiao.
In his victory speech, Lai said Taiwan is willing to talk to China “on the basis of dignity and parity”, but he also said his administration will be “determined” to safeguard Taiwan from threats and intimidation from China. “[Beijing] will use more economic coercion, diplomatic coercion, more informational warfare, and maybe more on the trade instead of using the military approach,” said Fang-yu Chen, a political science at Soochow University in Taipei. “But that being said, we still have to get ready.”
Saturday’s voting closed at 4 p.m. on Saturday, with the KMT conceding the presidential race before 8 p.m. “I’m sorry I disappointed my supporters, and I would like to apologize,” KMT’s Hou told the media. Ko Wen-je, of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), also conceded defeat. Saturday’s presidential vote was closely contested, with the KMT garnering more than 3.9 million votes, and the TPP about 3.1 million. DPP won more than 5 million votes.
For security reasons, Taiwan does not allow absentee voting, mandating that all voters cast their ballots in-person, on paper only. The physical ballots are then counted by hand at every polling station, a process that is completely open to the public.
But Taiwan’s election is not just about China. The rise of the TPP in Taiwan’s traditionally two-party political system has reflected voter fatigue with the perceived corruption and ideological rigidity of both the DPP and the KMT, the island’s more established parties, analysts say. Younger voters especially have flocked to the TPP, which has promised to address rising home prices and pledged greater spending on healthcare and rent subsidies. “The price for housing is crazy, and the economy is going down,” said Kevin Ko, 29, a project manager at a technology company in Taipei. “Our generation of 25-30 year old, the younger generation, we have been [voting] in elections a lot, but is Taiwan really get better?”
In his victory speech, Lai acknowledged that his party did not hold on to a majority in parliament. “The elections have told us that people expect an effective government as well as strong checks and balances,” Lai said, adding that he will cooperate with opposition parties to resolve the problems Taiwan faces.
Comment: I found this NPR story interesting not so much for heralding the continuance of the status quo in Taiwanese politics (much to the chagrin of Beijing), but for the mechanics of the election. It was a three way contest with a month of campaigning and a one day, in person, paper ballot election. Ballots were counted manually. And it was the third party that won the presidency… again. Of course, there were only some twelve million votes in total. But that’s twelve million out of a total of nineteen million voters so it was a pretty good turnout. I doubt this is scaleable to the US, but can we take some lessons from the Taiwanese in spite of our very different cultures?
TTG
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“a one day, in person, paper ballot election. Ballots were counted manually”
Yup, that’s the definition of an election. Anything else is something designed to resemble one.
Agreed. In Australia all ballots are on paper, and each one is counted manually.
Every single one.
Then the ballot papers are put to one side until the results are announced and accepted by all candidates.
If any candidate disputes the result then, yep, the paper ballots are brought back out and recounted. By hand.
Doesn’t seem to be an onerous task, and it ensures some handy pay-packets for a variety of retirees and University students.
Still, ours is a Westminster style parliamentary democracy, so make of that what you will.
Yeah, Right,
I don’t know of any US state that still uses electronic voting. Paper ballots are used mostly, including the mail-in paper ballots. Electronic ballot marking devices are used in some states that produce paper ballots for recounts, both machine and by hand. It’s only an onerous task because of our chronic shortage of election officers and polling places. Seems that one must serve as an election officer if nominated. It’s not voluntary. Maybe if we handle election officers like jury duty, we wouldn’t have such a chronic shortage.
Your comment is inaccurate. I don’t know what you mean when you say “the third party won the election.” The ruling party for the past eight years won the presidential election. The TPP (Taiwan’s People Party) would be viewed as the third party, and their candidate, Ke Wen-je, garnered 26.46% of the vote, a respectable showing. The western media ignore the implications of this election, in which the winner, Lai Ching-te of the DPP, won only 40% of the vote. Compare these figures to the last election in 2020 when the current president, Tsai Ying-wen, won 65% of the vote. In addition, compare the number of seats in the Legislative Yuan won by the parties. The KMT actually has MORE seats than the DPP, who had a firm majority for the past four years.
The western press trying to make it seem that China will be all bent out of shape about the results of this election are living in fantasy land, as they so often do. See Ukraine, Palestine, the Red Sea, US elections, etc. for examples of this. China will rightfully point out that 60% of the Taiwan population voted AGAINST the DPP. The DPP will have no ability to set a legislative agenda, as they control under 50% of the seats.
Despite, the US Administration, the US media, the DPP, and the green media in Taiwan trying to drum up scare tactics about the prospect of a Chinese invasion, the people of Taiwan don’t believe it, not in the least. They have seen the level of commitment that the US has for their proxies, arming but not supporting Ukraine with troops and finally cutting off the money. The people here are smart; they know that the US wants to use them as a disposable containment tool against China, Fortress Taiwan. It’s clear that the people here believe Xi Jin-ping when he says he has absolutely no intention of attacking Taiwan. The political landscape is shifting here, and the DPP have seen their highest support in the past 4 years. They will never see such support again. They performed abysmally on the domestic front, spending like a drunken sailor and showing a level of corruption equal to that of the old KMT.
Frankie P,
You’re right. The DPP is not the newest party. It was formed in the 80s. The TPP was formed is 2019 and is the third party. I definitely got that wrong. The KMT has been around since Christ was a corporal. Their strongholds are with the older Taiwanese who have family and business ties with mainland China. I don’t see them getting stronger in future elections. For a while the KMT and the TPP were in a coalition this year, but that fell apart. Even Lai said he would not have won if that coalition stayed together. Lei will have to rule as a coalition for domestic questions. However, most responsibility for foreign policy lies in the president’s office.
Beijing worked hard to see that the DPP was defeated. Lai was nothing but a troublemaker in their view. Chinese efforts to influence the election didn’t work. Perhaps the severe limits on campaigning in Taiwan contributed to that failure. Beijing went silent immediately after the DPP victory. Even talk on the internet concerning the election was silenced. I have no idea if Beijing will do anything about the DPP victory.
Perhaps..Xi is reluctant to Push Buttons..and “Retires”…..
.Perhaps TheRed Dragon…Takes Wing…And Down its Thunders..
And The Mystery of The Oriental Express..Will Be over.??
jim
TTG:
“The KMT has been around since Christ was a corporal.”
I loved that bit, but to keep things in perspective, the KMT has been around since Joe Stillwell was attending the Infantry Advanced Course and the Command and General Staff College. Pre-WWI anyway.
The KMT supporters would be really upset at your characterizing them as: “the older Taiwanese who have family and business ties with mainland China.” You see, those people consider themselves Chinese, not Taiwanese. They are citizens of the Republic of China, which is Taiwan, but they’re pretty serious about the China part. There is a significant difference between people who call themselves “Taiwanese” (families in Taiwan for 150-300 years) and those who consider themselves Maindlanders (came with the KMT in 1949).
The KMT will continue to reform, but for the most part, I also doubt that they will see a great increase in their support. The new support will go to the TPP, which was popular with young people because of its economic populist image. Young people have a tough time here; there are too many university graduates with useless degrees who can’t find decent jobs. Meanwhile, the government continues to allow 700,000 foreign laborers from Southeast Asia to drag salaries down. The DPP is currently negotiating with India to allow 100,000 Indians to come as laborers. It’s insane, and it only benefits big business owners. I admire TSMC for only hiring ROC nationals as operators in their semiconductor fabs.
Lai has long been viewed as a troublemaker by China, but he has come under tremendous pressure to moderate his views and rhetoric. Although the DPP and western media proclaimed that there was a lot of interference from China in the election, I disagree. China was not silent after the election. China will continue to emphasize that the DPP doesn’t represent public opinion in Taiwan; this is true after its candidate won only 40% of the vote and their legislative candidates fell short of a 50% majority. In summary, the trend is in China’s favor.
Thanks for the interaction, TTG.
“Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said the results reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island.
Noting that Taiwan is China’s Taiwan, Chen said that the elections will not change the basic landscape and development trend of cross-Strait relations, will not alter the shared aspiration of compatriots across the Taiwan Strait to forge closer ties, and will not impede the inevitable trend of China’s reunification.
“Our stance on resolving the Taiwan question and realizing national reunification remains consistent, and our determination is as firm as rock,” Chen said.
Frankie P,
I’ve enjoyed your input. Please feel free to provide further insights from Taiwan.
Some have interpreted this as a very smart way of voting by the Taiwanese people. KMT controls the parliament, DPP barely gets the presidency, and things are in a balance, with respect to both hegemons, US and China.
I think it’s obvious by inspection that the question of Taiwan’s eventual relationship with mainland China is a problem that will appropriately be kicked right on down the road into the future…hopefully forever. I have no interest whatsoever in seeing that actually resolved, given all the myriad ways that could turn really bad.
We can’t make voting records public. How would the uni-party win with the people being able to audit the elections?
Only one month of campaigning? Too bad we can’t stick to that. Instead we get two years worth. The media thrives on it. Why is that? Everyone I know is sick of it.
Really impressed by that voting system. Means any fraud has to be right down at the local level and is therefore difficult to conceal.
The UK system is similarly watertight. You never hear even gossip about dubious doings at the count, though the Scots mutter a little from time to time. But since, in the words of the most celebrated of our political analysts, it has never been difficult to distinguish between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine that can scarcely be taken as hard evidence.
A clean count does not, however, deal with the other problems. Postal voting is wide open to abuse. The importation of large numbers of voters from abroad skews the vote in a way that is out of proportion to the numbers involved. And the politicians devote time and expertise to gaming the system. Looking at how they run the country one might guess it’s all they devote their time and expertise to.
On that last, if the main political parties share essentially the same aims elections become more a means of giving us the illusion that we the people are playing our part in a functioning democracy. Which is a nice illusion for us to take to the polling station and allows us to imagine we have our hands on the tiller, but no more than that.
So for all that the counting of the votes in the UK is clean, the awareness of increasing numbers of individual voters that however they vote it won’t make any odds rather spoils the purpose of the whole operation.
I’m seeing calls here for a partial adoption of the American system, where the President, in our case the PM, is directly elected. Hastily skirting the constitutional implications of that the American system does mean that every four years there’s what amounts to a direct referendum. That makes it possible, though remarkably difficult, for a maverick to break through the closed ranks of the status quo politicians. The maverick may or may not be any good in him or herself but it does mean the status quo gets shaken up a little and this allows for at least the possibility of useful change. You’d never get a Trump breaking through in the UK electoral system, for instance, which means even that remote possibility of change is closed off here.
For the continental Europeans these rarified considerations are of no interest. They hold to a more primitive political philosophy, barbaric even. Eyes tight closed, lock the status quo in solid as a rock – but every now and again smash it up wholesale and start all over again. Looks as if they may be unwittingly heading towards the smash it up bit at the moment and if so it’ll be interesting to see what emerges afterwards. But for those who reject that way of doing politics – it always makes more mess than it clears up – easing the political machinery enough to allow for change looks to be a better bet.
As for the Taiwanese, they should know by now that allowing themselves to be used as a Western proxy has never ended well for our proxies in the past and is unlikely to do so for them. I’m glad they manage a clean count at their elections but if they want to be piggy in the middle in a superpower contest more fool them.
I spoke to a close friend and DPP supporter about his reaction. He was surprisingly glum because the DPP won the presidency but not the legislature. Now he fears that anti-DPP chuckleheads will obstruct the new president.
I was reminded of an old proverb: “Whenever it looks like something has changed in Taiwanese politics, it hasn’t actually changed at all.”
It’s gone to Cryptic .. AI primers..Manipulation of Mass’s .,
And Psy Ops .. overt .. Covert SHEEP herding .. and Fanatics ..
No Status Quo .. Just Quid Pro Quo
Mexicos 20 Billion Dollar Barter Bribe ..
And N Korea launched ballistic for 650 miles ., and shut down the Radio station broadcasting secret messages to Agents in South Korea..
Jim
The policies which apply to the hiring of top-ranking officials of the US and its allies have thoughtfully been extended by the FAA. Mental retardation hasn’t been an obstacle to legally becoming US President,Vice President, US Senator or Congressperson, Supreme Court Justice, British PM, Israeli PM etc for years now. Why exclude such people from prescribing medicine, designing aircraft and automobiles or simply bringing you your martini on a long tiring cross-Pacific flight?
Answer – it would not be fair to do so. We ask rhetorically if the same lack of discriminating employee restriction applied the the individual who made these reported hiring decisions. We close this segment with one of our brief “Person On the Street” recorded interviews:
Q: If you don’t mind – do you miss being able, or allowed in present day American society to call people “retarded?”
A: Yes, very much.
Q: But certainly you understand that it isn’t a very nice thing to say?
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FAA’s diversity push includes focus on hiring people with ‘severe intellectual’ and ‘psychiatric’ disabilities.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/faas-diversity-push-includes-focus-hiring-people-severe-intellectual-psychiatric-disabilities
The Federal Aviation Administration is actively recruiting workers who suffer “severe intellectual” disabilities, psychiatric problems and other mental and physical conditions under a diversity and inclusion hiring initiative spelled out on the agency’s website.
“Targeted disabilities are those disabilities that the Federal government, as a matter of policy, has identified for special emphasis in recruitment and hiring,” the FAA’s website states. “They include hearing, vision, missing extremities, partial paralysis, complete paralysis, epilepsy, severe intellectual disability, psychiatric disability and dwarfism.”
To the readers of Turcopolier who are still in some confusion about the so-called illegal immigration crisis on the US Southern border – please read this several times over the course of the next week as necessary and do not partake of drugs or alcohol especially if driving or operating heavy equipment.
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Handy Graphic from the Financial Times of London (owned by a Japanese company, last time I checked) – highly recommended.
http://tinyurl.com/3ey2r6p7
(Summary of graphic data in words.)
More than 40% of Britons and more than 30% of Americans aged 18 to 34 now live at home with their parents without children, a trend that continues to rise
It’s easy to get caught up in mass media. Here’s a piece that went unnoticed. It’s possibly more important or relevant than you might think, and not for any reasons mentioned in the article, but of course I hope not. Note the claim of 8,000 cross border attacks as of mid November. Article should translate automatically.
http://tinyurl.com/5n7kjjzy
Nov 16, 2024. Patrushev: the likelihood of Ukraine committing sabotage using biological weapons is growing.
The Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation also noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out more than 8 thousand attacks on the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions. (More at link)