“Today, the country has a population more than four times larger than America’s. By 2100, the U.S. will probably have more people than China.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics typically releases population data for the preceding year in early March. This year, NBS delayed its announcement because the central government is scheduled next month to announce preliminary results of the 7th national census, conducted in November and December.
The image of Chinese economic and geopolitical dominance will be severely dented when Beijing releases census data. Xi Jinping may believe “the East is rising and the West is declining”—the money line from one of his speeches late last year—but that view will be exceedingly hard to maintain.
The Chinese take great pride in being part of the world’s most populous state. Beijing reported China’s population in 2019 hit 1.4 billion in 2019, up from 1.39 billion the previous year.
Chinese authorities will undoubtedly report an increase for last year as well. They are on record as believing the country’s population will continue to grow for more than a half decade.
Some are skeptical of China’s total population figures, however. Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison told The National Interest that China in 2020 likely had a population of 1.26 billion. The noted demographer does not believe the number could have exceeded 1.28 billion.” Gordon Chang
Comment: Chang reminds me of the CIA annuitants and people like Andrei Amalrik (what happened to him?) who forecast the downfall of the USSR. They were treated with amused disdain at the time. Nobody wanted to hear what they said. To accept their view would have undermined the yearly campaign to obtain massive appropriations in funds from the Congress.
This piece neatly bookends TTG’s exposition the other day on the coming severe decline in east European population.
As someone observed in Comments here, there are too many people. Perhaps this development will be a good thing. pl